Search results for: Distribution coefficient

Authors: Arun Kumar, Yousef L. A. Latif, Fugen Daver

Abstract:

Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability distributions. The estimates of the parameters are used to calculate natural disaster forecasts. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.

Keywords: Humanitarian logistics, relief agencies, probability distribution.

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Authors: Mohammad Jamil Abd AlGhani

Abstract:

The natural native antioxidants N,N-P-methyl phenyl acetone and N,N-phenyl acetone were isolated from the Iraqi crude oil region of Kirkuk by ion exchange and their structure was characterized by spectral and chemical analysis methods. Tetraline was used as a liquid hydrocarbon to detect the efficiency of isolated molecules at elevated temperature (393 K) that it has physicochemical specifications and structure closed to hydrocarbons fractionated from crude oil. The synthesized universal antioxidant 2,6-ditertiaryisobutyl-p-methyl phenol (Unol) with known stochiometric coefficient of inhibition equal to (2) was used as a model for comparative evaluation at the same conditions. Modified chemiluminescence method was used to find the amount of absorbed oxygen and the induction periods in and without the existence of isolated antioxidants molecules. The results of induction periods and quantity of absorbed oxygen during the oxidation process were measured by manometric installation. It was seen that at specific equal concentrations of N,N-phenyl acetone and N, N-P-methyl phenyl acetone in comparison with Unol at 393 K were with (2) and (2.5) times efficient than do Unol. It means that they had the ability to inhibit the formation of new free radicals and prevent the chain reaction to pass from the propagation to the termination step rather than decomposition of formed hydroperoxides.

Keywords: Antioxidants, chemiluminescence, inhibition, unol.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Fighter aircraft selection is one of the most critical strategies for defense multiple criteria decision-making analysis to increase the decisive power of air defense and its superior power in the defense strategy. Vague set theory is an adequate approach for modeling vagueness, uncertainty, and imprecision in decision-making problems. This study integrates vague set theory and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to support fighter aircraft selection. The proposed method is applied in the selection of fighter aircraft for the Air Force. In the proposed approach, the ratings of alternatives and the importance weights of criteria for fighter aircraft selection are represented by the vague set theory. Finally, an illustrative example for fighter aircraft selection is given to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The fighter aircraft candidates were selected under six criteria including costability, payloadability, maneuverability, speedability, stealthility, and survivability. Analysis results show that the best fighter aircraft is selected with the highest closeness coefficient value. The proposed method can also be applied to solve other multiple criteria decision analysis problems. 

Keywords: fighter aircraft selection, vague set theory, fuzzy set theory, neutrosophic set theory, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS

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Authors: A. Gandomkar

Abstract:

This study aimed to evaluate regional soil Borkhar of the metals Lead has been made. In this field study fires visits to the regions. The limit of this study located in the East refineries, petrochemical and power plant to 20 km was selected. The 41 soil samples from depths of 0 to 10 cm in area and were randomized. Soil samples were transported to the laboratory and by air was dry and passed through 2-mil thickness sieve. In the laboratory of physical and chemical characteristics and concentrations of total absorption was measured. The results showed that the amount of lead in soil in many parts of the range higher than the standard limit. Survey maps show that the lead spatial distribution of the region does not special pattern.

Keywords: Soil Pollution, Heavy Metals, Borkhar District, Soil Sampling.

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Authors: Pandian Elavarasan, Kishore Kondamudi, Sreedevi Upadhyayula

Abstract:

Ionic liquids are well known as green solvents, reaction media and catalysis. Here, three different sulfonic acid functional ionic liquids prepared in the laboratory are used as catalysts in alkylation of p-cresol with tert-butyl alcohol. The kinetics on each of the catalysts was compared and a kinetic model was developed based on the product distribution over these catalysts. The kinetic parameters were estimated using Marquadt's algorithm to minimize the error function. The Arrhenius plots show a curvature which is best interpreted by the extended Arrhenius equation.

Keywords: Alkylation, p-cresol, tert-butyl alcohol, kinetics, activation parameter, extended Arrhenius equation.

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Authors: Atay A, Suer BT

Abstract:

The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the parameters of dental implants such as patient gender, number of implant, failed implant before prosthetic restorations and failed implant after implantation and failed implant after prosthetic restorations. 135 male and 99 female patients, total 234 implant patients which have been treated with 450 implant between 2005- 2009 years in GATA Haydarpasa Training Hospital Dental Service. Twelve implants were failed before prosthetic restorations. Four implant were failed after fixed prosthetic restorations. Cumulative survival rate after prostheses were 97.56 % during 6 years period.

Keywords: Dental implants, implant supported prostheses, single implants, single crown

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Authors: M. Karami Khorramabadi, M. M. Najafizadeh, J. Alibabaei Shahraki, P. Khazaeinejad

Abstract:

Analytical solution of the first-order and third-order shear deformation theories are developed to study the free vibration behavior of simply supported functionally graded plates. The material properties of plate are assumed to be graded in the thickness direction as a power law distribution of volume fraction of the constituents. The governing equations of functionally graded plates are established by applying the Hamilton's principle and are solved by using the Navier solution method. The influence of side-tothickness ratio and constituent of volume fraction on the natural frequencies are studied. The results are validated with the known data in the literature.

Keywords: Free vibration, Functionally graded plate, Naviersolution method.

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Authors: Olga V. Lebedinskaya, Irina N. Kabanovskaya, Anna S. Lasareva, Nelly K. Akhmatova, Anatoliy P. Godovalov, Andrey V. Horinko, Mikhail V. Kiselevsky

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The nature, prevalence, cellular composition of leukocyte infiltrates and immunohistochemical characteristics of their constituent cells in the liver of patients with chronic viral hepatitis B and C were investigated. It was found that the area of distribution and cellular composition of infiltrates depended on the virus type and process activity. The expediency of immunohistochemical study using leukocyte infiltrates from liver biopsies of patients with viral hepatitis aimed at clarifying diagnosis, making prognosis, and choice of optimal treatment with elements of immune correction is emphasized.

Keywords: Viral hepatitis, leukocyte infiltration, immunohistochemical characteristics, immunosupression.

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Authors: Jawad H AlKhateeb, Jianmin Jiang, Jinchang Ren, Stan S Ipson

Abstract:

Efficient preprocessing is very essential for automatic recognition of handwritten documents. In this paper, techniques on segmenting words in handwritten Arabic text are presented. Firstly, connected components (ccs) are extracted, and distances among different components are analyzed. The statistical distribution of this distance is then obtained to determine an optimal threshold for words segmentation. Meanwhile, an improved projection based method is also employed for baseline detection. The proposed method has been successfully tested on IFN/ENIT database consisting of 26459 Arabic words handwritten by 411 different writers, and the results were promising and very encouraging in more accurate detection of the baseline and segmentation of words for further recognition.

Keywords: Arabic OCR, off-line recognition, Baseline estimation, Word segmentation.

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Authors: V. Kahya, A. Birinci, R. Erdol

Abstract:

A frictionless contact problem for a two-layer orthotropic elastic medium loaded through a rigid flat stamp is considered. It is assumed that tensile tractions are not allowed and only compressive tractions can be transmitted across the interface. In the solution, effect of gravity is taken into consideration. If the external load on the rigid stamp is less than or equal to a critical value, continuous contact between the layers is maintained. The problem is expressed in terms of a singular integral equation by using the theory of elasticity and the Fourier transforms. Numerical results for initial separation point, critical separation load and contact stress distribution are presented.

Keywords: Frictionless contact, Initial separation, Orthotropicmaterial, Singular integral equation.

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Authors: Jianwen Li, Hongfang Ma, Weixin Qian, Haitao Zhang, Weiyong Ying

Abstract:

Methanol-to-propylene conversion was carried out in a continuous-flow fixed-bed reactor over nano-sized HZSM-5 zeolites. The HZSM-5 catalysts were synthesized with different Si/Al ratio and silicon sources, and treated with NaOH. The structural property, morphology, and acidity of catalysts were measured by XRD, N₂ adsorption, FE-SEM, TEM, and NH₃-TPD. The results indicate that the increment of Si/Al ratio decreased the acidity of catalysts and then improved propylene selectivity, while silicon sources had slight impact on the acidity but affected the product distribution. The desilication after alkali treatment could increase intracrystalline mesopores and enhance propylene selectivity.

Keywords: Alkali treatment, HZSM-5, methanol-to-propylene, synthesis condition.

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Authors: Rade M. Ciric, Nikola L. J. Rajakovic

Abstract:

This paper presents a curriculum of the subject small power plants and renewable energy sources, dealing with the concept of distributed generation, renewable energy sources, hydropower, wind farms, geothermal power plants, cogeneration plants, biogas plants of agriculture and animal origin, solar power and fuel cells. The course is taught the manner of connecting small power plants to the grid, the impact of small generators on the distribution system, as well as economic, environmental and legal aspects of operation of distributed generators.

Keywords: Distributed generation, renewable energy sources, techno-economic analysis, energy policy, curriculum.

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Authors: Chang-Lin Hu, Yao-You Cheng, Meng-Lin Li

Abstract:

The need of high frame-rate imaging has been triggered by the new applications of ultrasound imaging to transient elastography and real-time 3D ultrasound. Using plane wave excitation (PWE) is one of the methods to achieve very high frame-rate imaging since an image can be formed with a single insonification. However, due to the lack of transmit focusing, the image quality with PWE is lower compared with those using conventional focused transmission. To solve this problem, we propose a filter-retrieved transmit focusing (FRF) technique combined with cross-correlation weighting (FRF+CC weighting) for high frame-rate imaging with PWE. A restrospective focusing filter is designed to simultaneously minimize the predefined sidelobe energy associated with single PWE and the filter energy related to the signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR). This filter attempts to maintain the mainlobe signals and to reduce the sidelobe ones, which gives similar mainlobe signals and different sidelobes between the original PWE and the FRF baseband data. Normalized cross-correlation coefficient at zero lag is calculated to quantify the degree of similarity at each imaging point and used as a weighting matrix to the FRF baseband data to further suppress sidelobes, thus improving the filter-retrieved focusing quality.

Keywords: retrospective synthetic focusing, high frame rate, correlation weighting.

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Authors: Abiodun M. Aibinu, Athaur Rahman Najeeb, Momoh J. E. Salami, Amir A. Shafie

Abstract:

An alternative approach to the use of Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) for Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) reconstruction is the use of parametric modeling technique. This method is suitable for problems in which the image can be modeled by explicit known source functions with a few adjustable parameters. Despite the success reported in the use of modeling technique as an alternative MRI reconstruction technique, two important problems constitutes challenges to the applicability of this method, these are estimation of Model order and model coefficient determination. In this paper, five of the suggested method of evaluating the model order have been evaluated, these are: The Final Prediction Error (FPE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Residual Variance (RV), Minimum Description Length (MDL) and Hannan and Quinn (HNQ) criterion. These criteria were evaluated on MRI data sets based on the method of Transient Error Reconstruction Algorithm (TERA). The result for each criterion is compared to result obtained by the use of a fixed order technique and three measures of similarity were evaluated. Result obtained shows that the use of MDL gives the highest measure of similarity to that use by a fixed order technique.

Keywords: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), MagneticResonance Imaging (MRI), Parametric modeling, Transient Error.

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Authors: Robert E. Hursig, Jane X. Zhang

Abstract:

A robust still image face localization algorithm capable of operating in an unconstrained visual environment is proposed. First, construction of a robust skin classifier within a shifted HSV color space is described. Then various filtering operations are performed to better isolate face candidates and mitigate the effect of substantial non-skin regions. Finally, a novel Bhattacharyya-based face detection algorithm is used to compare candidate regions of interest with a unique illumination-dependent face model probability distribution function approximation. Experimental results show a 90% face detection success rate despite the demands of the visually noisy environment.

Keywords: Audio-visual speech recognition, Bhattacharyyacoefficient, face detection,

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Authors: Roman Kalvin, Anam Nadeem, Saba Arif

Abstract:

Turbocharger is a device that is driven by the turbine and increases efficiency and power output of the engine by forcing external air into the combustion chamber. This study focused on the distribution of stress on the turbine blades and total deformation that may occur during its working along with turbocharger to carry out its static structural analysis of turbine blades. Structural steel was selected as the material for turbocharger. Assembly of turbocharger and turbine blades was designed on PRO ENGINEER. Furthermore, the structural analysis is performed by using ANSYS. This research concluded that by using structural steel, the efficiency of engine is improved and by increasing number of turbine blades, more waste heat from combustion chamber is emitted.

Keywords: Turbocharger, turbine blades, structural steel, ANSYS.

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Authors: Abhijit Mitra

Abstract:

This paper proposes an efficient finite precision block floating point (BFP) treatment to the fixed coefficient finite impulse response (FIR) digital filter. The treatment includes effective implementation of all the three forms of the conventional FIR filters, namely, direct form, cascaded and par- allel, and a roundoff error analysis of them in the BFP format. An effective block formatting algorithm together with an adaptive scaling factor is pro- posed to make the realizations more simple from hardware view point. To this end, a generic relation between the tap weight vector length and the input block length is deduced. The implementation scheme also emphasises on a simple block exponent update technique to prevent overflow even during the block to block transition phase. The roundoff noise is also investigated along the analogous lines, taking into consideration these implementational issues. The simulation results show that the BFP roundoff errors depend on the sig- nal level almost in the same way as floating point roundoff noise, resulting in approximately constant signal to noise ratio over a relatively large dynamic range.

Keywords: Finite impulse response digital filters, Cascade structure, Parallel structure, Block floating point arithmetic, Roundoff error.

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Authors: Aicha Rima Cheniti, Hatem Besbes, Joseph Haggege, Christophe Sintes

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a drift flux mixture model of the blood flow. The mixture consists of gas phase which is carbon dioxide and liquid phase which is an aqueous carbon dioxide solution. This model was used to determine the distributions of the mixture velocity, the mixture pressure, and the carbon dioxide pressure. These theoretical data are used to determine a measurement method of mean gas pressure through the determination of radial velocity distribution. This method can be applicable in experimental domain.

Keywords: Mean carbon dioxide pressure, mean mixture pressure, mixture velocity, radial velocity.

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Authors: Nur Irmawati, H.A. Mohammed

Abstract:

In the present study, mixed convection in a horizontal rectangular duct using Al2O3 is numerically investigated. The effects of different Rayleigh number, Reynolds number and radiation on flow and heat transfer characteristics are studied in detail. This study covers Rayleigh number in the range of 2 × 10^6 ≤ Ra ≤ 2 × 10^7 and Reynolds number in the range of 100 ≤ Re ≤ 1100. Results reveal that the Nusselt number increases as Reynolds and Rayleigh numbers increase. It is also found that the dimensionless temperature distribution increases as Rayleigh number increases.

Keywords: Numerical simulation, Mixed convection, Horizontal rectangular duct, Nanofluids.

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Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

Window system in high rise building is occasionally subjected to an excessive wind intensity, particularly during typhoon. The failure of window system did not affect overall safety of structural performance; however, it could endanger the safety of the residents. In this paper, comparison of fragility curves for window system of two residential buildings was studied. The probability of failure for individual window was determined with Monte Carlo Simulation method. Then, lognormal cumulative distribution function was used to represent the fragility. The results showed that windows located on the edge of leeward wall were more susceptible to wind load and the probability of failure for each window panel increased at higher floors.

Keywords: Wind fragility, window system, high rise building.

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Authors: T. Y. Huang, B. Z. Wang, S. C. Lin, S. Y. Hsu

Abstract:

A CFD software was employed to analyze the characteristics of the flat round porous aerostatic bearings. The effects of gap between the bearing and the guide way and the porosity of the porous material on the load capacity of the bearing were studied. The adequacy of the simulation model and the approach was verified. From the parametric study, it is found that the depth of the flow path does not influence the load capacity of the bearing; the load capacity of the bearing will decrease if the thickness of the porous material increases or the porous material protrudes above the bearing housing; the variation of the chamfer at the edge of the bearing does not affect the bearing load capacity. For a bearing with an air gap of 5μm and a porosity of 0.1, the average load capacity and the pressure distribution of the bearing are nearly unchanged no matter the bearing moves at a constant or a varying speed.

Keywords: Aerostatic bearing, Load capacity, Porosity, Porous material.

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Authors: A.Urbach, M. Banov, V. Turko, Y.Feshchuk

Abstract:

the work contains the results of complex investigation related to the evaluation of condition of working blades of gas turbine engines during fatigue tests by applying the acoustic emission method. It demonstrates the possibility of estimating the fatigue damage of blades in the process of factory tests. The acoustic emission criteria for detecting and testing the kinetics of fatigue crack distribution were detected. It also shows the high effectiveness of the method for non-destructive testing of condition of solid and cooled working blades for high-temperature gas turbine engines.

Keywords: acoustic emission, blades for gas turbine engines, fatigue damage, diagnostics

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Authors: Sharif E. Guseynov, Jekaterina V. Aleksejeva, Janis S. Rimshans

Abstract:

A filtering problem of almost incompressible liquid chemical compound in the porous inhomogeneous 3D domain is studied. In this work general approaches to the solution of twodimensional filtering problems in ananisotropic, inhomogeneous and multilayered medium are developed, and on the basis of the obtained results mathematical models are constructed (according to Ollendorff method) for studying the certain engineering and technical problem of filtering the almost incompressible liquid chemical compound in the porous inhomogeneous 3D domain. For some of the formulated mathematical problems with additional requirements for the structure of the porous inhomogeneous medium, namely, its isotropy, spatial periodicity of its permeability coefficient, solution algorithms are proposed. Continuation of the current work titled ”On one mathematical model for filtration of weakly compressible chemical compound in the porous heterogeneous 3D medium. Part II: Determination of the reference directions of anisotropy and permeabilities on these directions” will be prepared in the shortest terms by the authors.

Keywords: Porous media, filtering, permeability, elliptic PDE.

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Authors: Jahanshah Saleh, Hossein Ghasemi, Ali Shahriari, Faezeh Alizadeh, Yaaghoob Hosseini

Abstract:

Cadmium and chromium are toxic to most organisms and different mechanisms have been developed for overcoming with the toxic effects of these heavy metals. We studied the uptake and distribution of cadmium and chromium in different organs of tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) plants in nine heavy metal polluted soils in western Hormozgan province, Iran. The accumulation of chromium was in increasing pattern of fruit peel

Keywords: Cadmium, chromium, phytoextraction, phytostabilization, tomato.

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Authors: B. A. Parate, C. P. Shetty

Abstract:

This research article describes the evaluation methodology of an internal ballistics of multi-perforated grain in a closed vessel (CV). The propellant testing in a CV is conducted to characterize the propellants and to ascertain the various internal ballistic parameters. The assessment of an internal ballistics plays a very crucial role for suitability of its use in the selection for a given particular application. The propellant used in defense sectors has to satisfy the user requirements as per laid down specifications. The outputs from CV evaluation of multi-propellant grain are maximum pressure of 226.75 MPa, differentiation of pressure with respect to time of 36.99 MPa/ms, average vivacity of 9.990×10-4/MPa ms, force constant of 933.9 J/g, rise time of 9.85 ms, pressure index of 0.878 including burning coefficient of 0.2919. This paper addresses an internal ballistic of multi-perforated grain, propellant selection, its calculation, and evaluation of various parameters in a CV testing. For the current analysis, the propellant is evaluated in 100 cc CV with propellant mass 20 g. The loading density of propellant is 0.2 g/cc. The method for determination of internal ballistic properties consists of burning of propellant mass under constant volume.

Keywords: Burning rate, closed vessel, force constant, internal ballistic, loading density, maximum pressure, multi-propellant grain, propellant, rise time, vivacity.

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Authors: Shan Gao

Abstract:

This paper treats a discrete-time finite buffer batch arrival queue with a single working vacation and partial batch rejection in which the inter-arrival and service times are, respectively, arbitrary and geometrically distributed. The queue is analyzed by using the supplementary variable and the imbedded Markov-chain techniques. We obtain steady-state system length distributions at prearrival, arbitrary and outside observer-s observation epochs. We also present probability generation function (p.g.f.) of actual waiting-time distribution in the system and some performance measures.

Keywords: Discrete-time, finite buffer, single working vacation, batch arrival, partial rejection.

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Authors: Jin-Lung Guan, Ming-Ta Yang, Jhy-Cherng Gu, Hsin-Hung Chang, Chin-Lung Huang

Abstract:

Voltage flicker problems have long existed in several of the distribution areas served by the Taiwan Power Company. In the past, those research results indicating that the estimated ΔV10 value based on the conventional method is significantly smaller than the survey value. This paper is used to study the relationship between the voltage flicker problems and harmonic power variation for the power system with electric arc furnaces. This investigation discussed thought the effect of harmonic power fluctuation with flicker estimate value. The method of field measurement, statistics and simulation is used. The survey results demonstrate that 10 ΔV estimate must account for the effect of harmonic power variation.

Keywords: Voltage Flicker, Harmonic Power, EAF.

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Authors: Rajai Al-Rousan

Abstract:

This paper presents a proposed analytical model for predicting the shear strength of reinforced concrete beams strengthened with CFRP composites as external reinforcement. The proposed analytical model can predict the shear contribution of CFRP composites of RC beams with an acceptable coefficient of correlation with the tested results. Based on the comparison of the proposed model with the published well-known models (ACI model, Triantafillou model, and Colotti model), the ACI model had a wider range of 0.16 to 10.08 for the ratio between tested and predicted ultimate shears at failure. Also, an acceptable range of 0.27 to 2.78 for the ratio between tested and predicted ultimate shears by the Triantafillou model. Finally, the best prediction (the ratio between the tested and predicted ones) of the ultimate shear capacity is observed by using Colotti model with a range of 0.20 to 1.78. Thus, the contribution of the CFRP composites as external reinforcement can be predicted with high accuracy by using the proposed analytical model.

Keywords: Predicting, shear capacity, reinforced concrete, beams, strengthened, externally, CFRP composites.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present fuzzy TOPSIS in an entropic fuzzy environment. Due to the ambiguous concepts often represented in decision data, exact values are insufficient to model real-life situations. In this paper, the rating of each alternative is defined in fuzzy linguistic terms, which can be expressed with triangular fuzzy numbers. The weight of each criterion is then derived from the decision matrix using the entropy weighting method. Next, a vertex method is proposed to calculate the distance between two triangular fuzzy numbers. According to the TOPSIS concept, a closeness coefficient is defined to determine the ranking order of all alternatives by simultaneously calculating the distances to both the fuzzy positive-ideal solution (FPIS) and the fuzzy negative-ideal solution (FNIS). Finally, an illustrative example of selecting stealth fighter aircraft is shown at the end of this article to highlight the procedure of the proposed method. Correlation analysis and validation analysis using TOPSIS, WSM, and WPM methods were performed to compare the ranking order of the alternatives.

Keywords: stealth fighter aircraft selection, fuzzy uncertainty theory (FUT), fuzzy entropic decision (FED), fuzzy linguistic variables, triangular fuzzy numbers, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS, WSM, WPM

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.

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