Search results for: Deterministic simulations

Authors: Muhammad Amjad Sohail, Prof. Yan Chao, Mukkarum Husain

Abstract:

Flow field around hypersonic vehicles is very complex and difficult to simulate. The boundary layers are squeezed between shock layer and body surface. Resolution of boundary layer, shock wave and turbulent regions where the flow field has high values is difficult of capture. Detached eddy simulation (DES) is a modification of a RANS model in which the model switches to a subgrid scale formulation in regions fine enough for LES calculations. Regions near solid body boundaries and where the turbulent length scale is less than the maximum grid dimension are assigned the RANS mode of solution. As the turbulent length scale exceeds the grid dimension, the regions are solved using the LES mode. Therefore the grid resolution is not as demanding as pure LES, thereby considerably cutting down the cost of the computation. In this research study hypersonic flow is simulated at Mach 8 and different angle of attacks to resolve the proper boundary layers and discontinuities. The flow is also simulated in the long wake regions. Mesh is little different than RANS simulations and it is made dense near the boundary layers and in the wake regions to resolve it properly. Hypersonic blunt cone cylinder body with frustrum at angle 5o and 10 o are simulated and there aerodynamics study is performed to calculate aerodynamics characteristics of different geometries. The results and then compared with experimental as well as with some turbulence model (SA Model). The results achieved with DES simulation have very good resolution as well as have excellent agreement with experimental and available data. Unsteady simulations are performed for DES calculations by using duel time stepping method or implicit time stepping. The simulations are performed at Mach number 8 and angle of attack from 0o to 10o for all these cases. The results and resolutions for DES model found much better than SA turbulence model.

Keywords: Detached eddy simulation, dual time stepping, hypersonic flow, turbulence modeling

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Authors: Worachat Wannawong, Usa W. HumphriesPrungchan Wongwises, Suphat Vongvisessomjai

Abstract:

The mathematical modeling of storm surge in sea and coastal regions such as the South China Sea (SCS) and the Gulf of Thailand (GoT) are important to study the typhoon characteristics. The storm surge causes an inundation at a lateral boundary exhibiting in the coastal zones particularly in the GoT and some part of the SCS. The model simulations in the three dimensional primitive equations with a high resolution model are important to protect local properties and human life from the typhoon surges. In the present study, the mathematical modeling is used to simulate the typhoon–induced surges in three case studies of Typhoon Linda 1997. The results of model simulations at the tide gauge stations can describe the characteristics of storm surges at the coastal zones.

Keywords: lateral boundary, mathematical modeling, numericalsimulations, three dimensional primitive equations, storm surge.

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Authors: Mada Sanjaya, Halimatussadiyah, Dian Syah Maulana

Abstract:

The nonlinear chaotic non-autonomous fourth order system is algebraically simple but can generate complex chaotic attractors. In this paper, non-autonomous fourth order chaotic oscillator circuits were designed and simulated. Also chaotic nonautonomous Attractor is addressed suitable for chaotic masking communication circuits using Matlab® and MultiSIM® programs. We have demonstrated in simulations that chaos can be synchronized and applied to signal masking communications. We suggest that this phenomenon of chaos synchronism may serve as the basis for little known chaotic non-autonomous Attractor to achieve signal masking communication applications. Simulation results are used to visualize and illustrate the effectiveness of non-autonomous chaotic system in signal masking. All simulations results performed on nonautonomous chaotic system are verify the applicable of secure communication.

Keywords: Bidirectional chaotic synchronization, double bellattractor, secure communication

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Authors: Pham Luu Trung Duong, Moonyong Lee

Abstract:

To increase precision and reliability of automatic control systems, we have to take into account of random factors affecting the control system. Thus, operational matrix technique is used for statistical analysis of first order plus time delay system with uniform random parameter. Examples with deterministic and stochastic disturbance are considered to demonstrate the validity of the method. Comparison with Monte Carlo method is made to show the computational effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: First order plus dead-time, Operational matrix, Statistical analysis, Walsh function.

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, S. Hossein Sadati

Abstract:

Bayesian approach can be used for parameter identification and extraction in state space models and its ability for analyzing sequence of data in dynamical system is proved in different literatures. In this paper, adaptive Kalman filter with Bayesian approach for identification of variances in measurement parameter noise is developed. Next, it is applied for estimation of the dynamical state and measurement data in discrete linear dynamical system. This algorithm at each step time estimates noise variance in measurement noise and state of system with Kalman filter. Next, approximation is designed at each step separately and consequently sufficient statistics of the state and noise variances are computed with a fixed-point iteration of an adaptive Kalman filter. Different simulations are applied for showing the influence of noise variance in measurement data on algorithm. Firstly, the effect of noise variance and its distribution on detection and identification performance is simulated in Kalman filter without Bayesian formulation. Then, simulation is applied to adaptive Kalman filter with the ability of noise variance tracking in measurement data. In these simulations, the influence of noise distribution of measurement data in each step is estimated, and true variance of data is obtained by algorithm and is compared in different scenarios. Afterwards, one typical modeling of nonlinear state space model with inducing noise measurement is simulated by this approach. Finally, the performance and the important limitations of this algorithm in these simulations are explained. 

Keywords: adaptive filtering, Bayesian approach Kalman filtering approach, variance tracking

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Authors: S. A. Ahmadi, S. Sharif, R. Jamshidi

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In this article, the flow behavior around a NACA 0012 airfoil which is oscillating with different Reynolds numbers and in various amplitudes has been investigated numerically. Numerical simulations have been performed with ANSYS software. First, the 2- D geometry has been studied in different Reynolds numbers and angles of attack with various numerical methods in its static condition. This analysis was to choose the best turbulent model and comparing the grids to have the optimum one for dynamic simulations. Because the analysis was to study the blades of wind turbines, the Reynolds numbers were not arbitrary. They were in the range of 9.71e5 to 22.65e5. The angle of attack was in the range of -41.81° to 41.81°. By choosing the forward wind speed as the independent parameter, the others like Reynolds and the amplitude of the oscillation would be known automatically. The results show that the SST turbulent model is the best choice that leads the least numerical error with respect the experimental ones. Also, a dynamic stall phenomenon is more probable at lower wind speeds in which the lift force is less.

Keywords: Dynamic stall, Numerical simulation, Wind turbine, Turbulent Model

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Authors: Mehdi Ghommem, Daniel Garcia, Nathan Collier, Victor Calo

Abstract:

We develop a fast, user-friendly implementation of a potential flow solver based on the unsteady vortex lattice method (UVLM). The computational framework uses the Python programming language which has easy integration with the scripts requiring computationally-expensive operations written in Fortran. The mixed-language approach enables high performance in terms of solution time and high flexibility in terms of easiness of code adaptation to different system configurations and applications. This computational tool is intended to predict the unsteady aerodynamic behavior of multiple moving bodies (e.g., flapping wings, rotating blades, suspension bridges...) subject to an incoming air. We simulate different aerodynamic problems to validate and illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the developed computational tool.

Keywords: Unsteady aerodynamics, numerical simulations, mixed-language approach, potential flow.

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Authors: Maziar Ramezani, Thomas Neitzert

Abstract:

This paper gives an overview of a deep drawing process by pressurized liquid medium separated from the sheet by a rubber diaphragm. Hydroforming deep drawing processing of sheet metal parts provides a number of advantages over conventional techniques. It generally increases the depth to diameter ratio possible in cup drawing and minimizes the thickness variation of the drawn cup. To explore the deformation mechanism, analytical and numerical simulations are used for analyzing the drawing process of an AA6061-T4 blank. The effects of key process parameters such as coefficient of friction, initial thickness of the blank and radius between cup wall and flange are investigated analytically and numerically. The simulated results were in good agreement with the results of the analytical model. According to finite element simulations, the hydroforming deep drawing method provides a more uniform thickness distribution compared to conventional deep drawing and decreases the risk of tearing during the process.

Keywords: Deep drawing, Hydroforming, Rubber diaphragm

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Authors: Frank Emmert Streib, Matthias Dehmer, Gökhan H. Bakır, Max Mühlhauser

Abstract:

In this paper we investigate the influence of external noise on the inference of network structures. The purpose of our simulations is to gain insights in the experimental design of microarray experiments to infer, e.g., transcription regulatory networks from microarray experiments. Here external noise means, that the dynamics of the system under investigation, e.g., temporal changes of mRNA concentration, is affected by measurement errors. Additionally to external noise another problem occurs in the context of microarray experiments. Practically, it is not possible to monitor the mRNA concentration over an arbitrary long time period as demanded by the statistical methods used to learn the underlying network structure. For this reason, we use only short time series to make our simulations more biologically plausible.

Keywords: Dynamic Bayesian networks, structure learning, gene networks, Markov chain Monte Carlo, microarray data.

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Authors: Edlira Donefski, Tina Donefski, Lorenc Ekonomi

Abstract:

Edgeworth Approximation, Bootstrap and Monte Carlo Simulations have a considerable impact on the achieving certain results related to different problems taken into study. In our paper, we have treated a financial case related to the effect that have the components of a Cash-Flow of one of the most successful businesses in the world, as the financial activity, operational activity and investing activity to the cash and cash equivalents at the end of the three-months period. To have a better view of this case we have created a Vector Autoregression model, and after that we have generated the impulse responses in the terms of Asymptotic Analysis (Edgeworth Approximation), Monte Carlo Simulations and Residual Bootstrap based on the standard errors of every series created. The generated results consisted of the common tendencies for the three methods applied, that consequently verified the advantage of the three methods in the optimization of the model that contains many variants.

Keywords: Autoregression, Bootstrap, Edgeworth Expansion, Monte Carlo Method.

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Authors: Jindřiška Šedová, Miloš Šeda

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This paper summarizes and compares approaches to solving the knapsack problem and its known application in capital budgeting. The first approach uses deterministic methods and can be applied to small-size tasks with a single constraint. We can also apply commercial software systems such as the GAMS modelling system. However, because of NP-completeness of the problem, more complex problem instances must be solved by means of heuristic techniques to achieve an approximation of the exact solution in a reasonable amount of time. We show the problem representation and parameter settings for a genetic algorithm framework.

Keywords: Capital budgeting, knapsack problem, GAMS, heuristic method, genetic algorithm.

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Authors: R. Doubrava, R. Růžek

Abstract:

Nonstandard tests are necessary for analyses and verification of new developed structural and technological solutions with application of composite materials. One of the most critical primary structural parts of a typical aerospace structure is T-joint. This structural element is loaded mainly in shear, bending, peel and tension. The paper is focused on the shear loading simulations. The aim of the work is to obtain a representative uniform distribution of shear loads along T-joint during the mechanical testing. A new design of T-joint test procedure, numerical simulation and optimization of representative boundary conditions are presented. The different conditions and inaccuracies both in simulations and experiments are discussed. The influence of different parameters on stress and strain distributions is demonstrated on T-joint made of CFRP (carbon fibre reinforced plastic). A special test rig designed by VZLU (Aerospace Research and Test Establishment) for T-shear test procedure is presented.

Keywords: T-joint, shear, composite, mechanical testing, Finite Element analysis, methodology.

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Authors: K. Divya, G. Sugumaran

Abstract:

This paper proposes an improved Maximum Power Point Tracking of PhotoVoltaic system using Deterministic Partical Swarm Optimization technique. This method has the ability to track the maximum power under varying environmental conditions i.e. partial shading conditions. The advantage of this method, particles moves in the restricted value of velocity to achieve the maximum power. SEPIC converter is employed to boost up the voltage of PV system. To estimate the value of the proposed method, MATLAB simulation carried out under partial shading condition.

Keywords: DPSO, Partial shading condition, P&O, PV, SEPIC.

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Authors: Sharon S. Wu, Yong S. Park

Abstract:

This project aims to study and evaluate the motorcycle crash bar, which is used to reduce injuries caused by side impacts to the motorcycle, and then develop an improved design using the engineering design process theory based on the current benchmark crash bar in order to lower the severity of motorcycle crash injuries. For this purpose, simulations for the crash bar are set up so that it travels at an angle towards a fixed concrete wall and collides at certain velocities. 3D CAD models are first designed in SolidWorks and dynamic crash simulations are then carried out using ANSYS to determine the lowest maximum Von-Mises stress over time and deformations by adjusting the parameters used in manufacturing the crash bar, including the velocity of the crash, material used, geometries with various radius fillets, and different thicknesses for the bar. The results of the simulation are used to determine the optimum parameters for a safer crash bar to withstand higher stress and deformation. Specifically, the von-Mises stress was reduced by at least 75% compared with the benchmark design by choosing aluminum alloy and a true unibar design.

Keywords: Crash bar, crash simulation, engineering design, motorcycle safety.

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Authors: H.Mohammadi Majd, M.Jalali Azizpour , Foad Saadi

Abstract:

In this paper back-propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) is employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process. To prepare a training set for BPANN, some finite element simulations were carried out. The input data for the artificial neural network are a set of parameters generated randomly (aspect ratio d/h, material properties, temperature and coefficient of friction). The output data are the coefficient of polynomial that fitted on barreling curves. Neural network was trained using barreling curves generated by finite element simulations of the upsetting and the corresponding material parameters. This technique was tested for three different specimens and can be successfully employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process

Keywords: Back-propagation artificial neural network(BPANN), prediction, upsetting

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Authors: Santhakumar M., Asokan T.

Abstract:

This paper addresses the problem of trajectory tracking control of an underactuated autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) in the horizontal plane. The underwater vehicle under consideration is not actuated in the sway direction, and the system matrices are not assumed to be diagonal and linear, as often found in the literature. In addition, the effect of constant bias of environmental disturbances is considered. Using backstepping techniques and the tracking error dynamics, the system states are stabilized by forcing the tracking errors to an arbitrarily small neighborhood of zero. The effectiveness of the proposed control method is demonstrated through numerical simulations. Simulations are carried out for an experimental vehicle for smooth, inertial, two dimensional (2D) reference trajectories such as constant velocity trajectory (a circle maneuver – constant yaw rate), and time varying velocity trajectory (a sinusoidal path – sinusoidal yaw rate).

Keywords: autonomous underwater vehicle, system matrices, tracking control, time – varying feed back, underactuated control.

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Authors: Ivica Martinjak, Mario-Osvin Pavcevic

Abstract:

When trying to enumerate all BIBD-s for given parameters, their natural solution space appears to be huge and grows extremely with the number of points of the design. Therefore, constructive enumerations are often carried out by assuming additional constraints on design-s structure, automorphisms being mostly used ones. It remains a hard task to construct designs with trivial automorphism group – those with no additional symmetry – although it is believed that most of the BIBD-s belong to that case. In this paper, very many new designs with parameters 2-(13, 5, 5), 2-(16, 6, 5) and 2-(21, 6, 4) are constructed, assuming an action of an automorphism of order 3. Even more, it was possible to construct millions of such designs with no non-trivial automorphisms.

Keywords: BIBD, incidence matrix, automorphism group, tactical decomposition, deterministic algorithm.

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Authors: H.Mohammadi Majd, M.Jalali Azizpour

Abstract:

In this paper back-propagation artificial neural network (BPANN )with Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm is employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process. To prepare a training set for BPANN, some finite element simulations were carried out. The input data for the artificial neural network are a set of parameters generated randomly (aspect ratio d/h, material properties, temperature and coefficient of friction). The output data are the coefficient of polynomial that fitted on barreling curves. Neural network was trained using barreling curves generated by finite element simulations of the upsetting and the corresponding material parameters. This technique was tested for three different specimens and can be successfully employed to predict the deformation of the upsetting process

Keywords: Back-propagation artificial neural network(BPANN), prediction, upsetting

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Authors: Jürgen Roßmann, Gerrit Alves

Abstract:

In today-s world, the efficient utilization of wood resources comes more and more to the mind of forest owners. It is a very complex challenge to ensure an efficient harvest of the wood resources. This is one of the scopes the project “Virtual Forest II" addresses. Its core is a database with data about forests containing approximately 260 million trees located in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW). Based on this data, tree growth simulations and wood mobilization simulations can be conducted. This paper focuses on the latter. It describes a discrete-event-simulation with an attached 3-D real time visualization which simulates timber harvest using trees from the database with different crop resources. This simulation can be displayed in 3-D to show the progress of the wood crop. All the data gathered during the simulation is presented as a detailed summary afterwards. This summary includes cost-benefit calculations and can be compared to those of previous runs to optimize the financial outcome of the timber harvest by exchanging crop resources or modifying their parameters.

Keywords: Timber harvest, simulation, 3-D, optimization.

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Authors: Cha’o-Kuang Chen, Ching-Chang Cho

Abstract:

This paper investigates the natural convection heat transfer performance in a complex-wavy-wall cavity filled with power-law fluid. In performing the simulations, the continuity, Cauchy momentum and energy equations are solved subject to the Boussinesq approximation using a finite volume method. The simulations focus specifically on the effects of the flow behavior index in the power-law model and the Rayleigh number on the flow streamlines, isothermal contours and mean Nusselt number within the cavity. The results show that pseudoplastic fluids have a better heat transfer performance than Newtonian or dilatant fluids. Moreover, it is shown that for Rayleigh numbers greater than Ra=10³, the mean Nusselt number has a significantly increase as the flow behavior index is decreased.

Keywords: Non-Newtonian fluid, Power-law fluid, Natural convection, Heat transfer enhancement, Cavity, Wavy wall.

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Authors: Ali Hamadi Dicko, Nicolas Tong-Yette, Benjamin Gilles, François Faure, Olivier Palombi

Abstract:

A novel hybrid model of the lumbar spine, allowing fast static and dynamic simulations of the disc pressure and the spine mobility, is introduced in this work. Our contribution is to combine rigid bodies, deformable finite elements, articular constraints, and springs into a unique model of the spine. Each vertebra is represented by a rigid body controlling a surface mesh to model contacts on the facet joints and the spinous process. The discs are modeled using a heterogeneous tetrahedral finite element model. The facet joints are represented as elastic joints with six degrees of freedom, while the ligaments are modeled using non-linear one-dimensional elastic elements. The challenge we tackle is to make these different models efficiently interact while respecting the principles of Anatomy and Mechanics. The mobility, the intradiscal pressure, the facet joint force and the instantaneous center of rotation of the lumbar spine are validated against the experimental and theoretical results of the literature on flexion, extension, lateral bending as well as axial rotation. Our hybrid model greatly simplifies the modeling task and dramatically accelerates the simulation of pressure within the discs, as well as the evaluation of the range of motion and the instantaneous centers of rotation, without penalizing precision. These results suggest that for some types of biomechanical simulations, simplified models allow far easier modeling and faster simulations compared to usual full-FEM approaches without any loss of accuracy.

Keywords: Hybrid, modeling, fast simulation, lumbar spine.

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Authors: Abdulmajid Mukhtar Afat

Abstract:

This paper aims at introducing finite automata theory, the different ways to describe regular languages and create a program to implement the subset construction algorithms to convert nondeterministic finite automata (NFA) to deterministic finite automata (DFA). This program is written in c++ programming language. The program reads FA 5tuples from text file and then classifies it into either DFA or NFA. For DFA, the program will read the string w and decide whether it is acceptable or not. If accepted, the program will save the tracking path and point it out. On the other hand, when the automation is NFA, the program will change the Automation to DFA so that it is easy to track and it can decide whether the w exists in the regular language or not.

Keywords: Finite Automata, subset construction DFA, NFA.

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Authors: M. M. M. Salem, Ayman A. Aly

Abstract:

An active suspension system has been proposed to improve the ride comfort. A quarter-car 2 degree-of-freedom (DOF) system is designed and constructed on the basis of the concept of a four-wheel independent suspension to simulate the actions of an active vehicle suspension system. The purpose of a suspension system is to support the vehicle body and increase ride comfort. The aim of the work described in the paper was to illustrate the application of fuzzy logic technique to the control of a continuously damping automotive suspension system. The ride comfort is improved by means of the reduction of the body acceleration caused by the car body when road disturbances from smooth road and real road roughness. The paper describes also the model and controller used in the study and discusses the vehicle response results obtained from a range of road input simulations. In the conclusion, a comparison of active suspension fuzzy control and Proportional Integration derivative (PID) control is shown using MATLAB simulations.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic control, ride comfort, vehicle dynamics, active suspension system, quarter-car model.

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Authors: D. He, Y. Pang, G. Lodewijks

Abstract:

Belt conveyors play an important role in continuous dry bulk material transport, especially at the mining industry. Speed control is expected to reduce the energy consumption of belt conveyors. Transient operation is the operation of increasing or decreasing conveyor speed for speed control. According to literature review, current research rarely takes the conveyor dynamics in transient operation into account. However, in belt conveyor speed control, the conveyor dynamic behaviors are significantly important since the poor dynamics might result in risks. In this paper, the potential risks in transient operation will be analyzed. An existing finite element model will be applied to build a conveyor model, and simulations will be carried out to analyze the conveyor dynamics. In order to realize the soft speed regulation, Harrison’s sinusoid acceleration profile will be applied, and Lodewijks estimator will be built to approximate the required acceleration time. A long inclined belt conveyor will be studied with two major simulations. The conveyor dynamics will be given.

Keywords: Belt conveyor, speed control, transient operation, dynamics

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Authors: Rein Kuusik, Grete Lind

Abstract:

Generator of hypotheses is a new method for data mining. It makes possible to classify the source data automatically and produces a particular enumeration of patterns. Pattern is an expression (in a certain language) describing facts in a subset of facts. The goal is to describe the source data via patterns and/or IF...THEN rules. Used evaluation criteria are deterministic (not probabilistic). The search results are trees - form that is easy to comprehend and interpret. Generator of hypotheses uses very effective algorithm based on the theory of monotone systems (MS) named MONSA (MONotone System Algorithm).

Keywords: data mining, monotone systems, pattern, rule.

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Authors: N. Dumitru, S. Dumitru, C. Copilusi, N. Ploscaru

Abstract:

On this research, experimental analyses have been performed in order to determine the oil pump mechanism dynamics and stability from an oil unit mechanical structure. The experimental tests were focused on the vibrations which occur inside of the rod element during functionality of the oil pump unit. The oil pump mechanism dynamic parameters were measured and also determined through numerical computations. Entire research is based on the oil pump unit mechanical system virtual prototyping. For a complete analysis of the mechanism, the frequency dynamic response was identified, mainly for the mechanism driven element, based on two methods: processing and virtual simulations with MSC Adams aid and experimental analysis. In fact, through this research, a complete methodology is presented where numerical simulations of a mechanism with deformed elements are developed on a dynamic mode and these can be correlated with experimental tests.

Keywords: Modal dynamic analysis, oil pump, vibrations, flexible elements, frequency response.

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Authors: M. Hossein Ghadiri, Mohd Farid Mohamed, N. Lukman N. Ibrahim

Abstract:

Wind catchers are traditional natural ventilation systems attached to buildings in order to ventilate the indoor air. The most common type of wind catcher is four sided one which is capable to catch wind in all directions. CFD simulation is the perfect way to evaluate the wind catcher performance. The accuracy of CFD results is the issue of concern, so sensitivity analyses is crucial to find out the effect of different settings of CFD on results. This paper presents a series of 3D steady RANS simulations for a generic isolated four-sided wind catcher attached to a room subjected to wind direction ranging from 0º to 180º with an interval of 45º. The CFD simulations are validated with detailed wind tunnel experiments. The influence of an extensive range of computational parameters is explored in this paper, including the resolution of the computational grid, the size of the computational domain and the turbulence model. This study found that CFD simulation is a reliable method for wind catcher study, but it is less accurate in prediction of models with non perpendicular wind directions.

Keywords: Wind catcher, CFD, natural ventilation, sensitivity study.

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Authors: K. Sudprasert, M. Precharattana, N. Nuttavut, D. Triampo, B. Pattanasiri, Y. Lenbury, W. Triampo

Abstract:

The study of non-equilibrium systems has attracted increasing interest in recent years, mainly due to the lack of theoretical frameworks, unlike their equilibrium counterparts. Studying the steady state and/or simple systems is thus one of the main interests. Hence in this work we have focused our attention on the driven lattice gas model (DLG model) consisting of interacting particles subject to an external field E. The dynamics of the system are given by hopping of particles to nearby empty sites with rates biased for jumps in the direction of E. Having used small two dimensional systems of DLG model, the stochastic properties at nonequilibrium steady state were analytically studied. To understand the non-equilibrium phenomena, we have applied the analytic approach via master equation to calculate probability function and analyze violation of detailed balance in term of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. Monte Carlo simulations have been performed to validate the analytic results.

Keywords: Non-equilibrium, lattice gas, stochastic process

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Authors: Mahdiyeh Zafaranchi, Ethan S. Cantor, William T. Riddell, Jess W. Everett

Abstract:

The New Jersey Department of Military and Veteran’s Affairs (NJ DMAVA) operates over 50 facilities throughout the state of New Jersey, US. NJ DMAVA is under a mandate to move toward decarbonization, which will eventually include eliminating the use of natural gas and other fossil fuels for heating. At the same time, the organization requires increased resiliency regarding electric grid disruption. These competing goals necessitate adopting the use of on-site renewables such as photovoltaic and geothermal power, as well as implementing power control strategies through microgrids. Planning for these changes requires a detailed understanding of current and future electricity use on yearly, monthly, and shorter time scales, as well as a breakdown of consumption by heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. This paper discusses case studies of two buildings that were simulated using the QUick Energy Simulation Tool (eQUEST). Both buildings use electricity from the grid and photovoltaics. One building also uses natural gas. While electricity use data are available in hourly intervals and natural gas data are available in monthly intervals, the simulations were developed using monthly and yearly totals. This approach was chosen to reflect the information available for most NJ DMAVA facilities. Once completed, simulation results are compared to metrics recommended by several organizations to validate energy use simulations. In addition to yearly and monthly totals, the simulated peak demands are compared to actual monthly peak demand values. The simulations resulted in monthly peak demand values that were within 30% of the measured values. These benchmarks will help to assess future energy planning efforts for NJ DMAVA.

Keywords: Building Energy Modeling, eQUEST, peak demand, smart meters.

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Authors: Nikolay Nikolaev, Evgueni Smirnov

Abstract:

This paper develops an unscented grid-based filter and a smoother for accurate nonlinear modeling and analysis of time series. The filter uses unscented deterministic sampling during both the time and measurement updating phases, to approximate directly the distributions of the latent state variable. A complementary grid smoother is also made to enable computing of the likelihood. This helps us to formulate an expectation maximisation algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the state noise and the observation noise. Empirical investigations show that the proposed unscented grid filter/smoother compares favourably to other similar filters on nonlinear estimation tasks.

Keywords:

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