Search results for: Calculation of risk factor

Authors: Amirmohsen Behjat, Aleck Ostry, Christina Miewald, Bernie Pauly

Abstract:

Substantial research has indicated that socioeconomic and demographic characteristics’ of neighborhoods are strong determinants of food security. The aim of this study was to develop a Food Insecurity Neighborhood Index (FINI) based on the associated socioeconomic and demographic variables to identify the areas at potential risk of food insecurity in rural British Columbia (BC). Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique was used to calculate the FINI for each rural Dissemination Area (DA) using the food security determinant variables from Canadian Census data. Using ArcGIS, the neighborhoods with the top quartile FINI values were classified as food insecure. The results of this study indicated that the most food insecure neighborhood with the highest FINI value of 99.1 was in the Bulkley-Nechako (central BC) area whereas the lowest FINI with the value of 2.97 was for a rural neighborhood in the Cowichan Valley area. In total, 98.049 (19%) of the rural population of British Columbians reside in high food insecure areas. Moreover, the distribution of food insecure neighborhoods was found to be strongly dependent on the degree of rurality in BC. In conclusion, the cluster of food insecure neighbourhoods was more pronounced in Central Coast, Mount Wadington, Peace River, Kootenay Boundary, and the Alberni-Clayoqout Regional Districts.

Keywords: Neighbourhood food insecurity index, socioeconomic and demographic determinants, principal component analysis, Canada Census, ArcGIS.

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Authors: Paola Comella, Vincenzo Francani, Paola Gattinoni

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This paper presents the Colzate-Vertova landslide, a Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation (DSGSD) located in the Seriana Valley, Northern Italy. The paper aims at describing the development as well as evaluating the factors that influence the evolution of the landslide. After defining the conceptual model of the landslide, numerical simulations were developed using a finite element numerical model, first with a two-dimensional domain, and later with a three-dimensional one. The results of the 2-D model showed a displacement field typical of a sackung, as a consequence of the erosion along the Seriana Valley. The analysis also showed that the groundwater flow could locally affect the slope stability, bringing about a reduction in the safety factor, but without reaching failure conditions. The sensitivity analysis carried out on the strength parameters pointed out that slope failures could be reached only for relevant reduction of the geotechnical characteristics. Such a result does not fit the real conditions observed on site, where a number of small failures often develop all along the hillslope. The 3-D model gave a more comprehensive analysis of the evolution of the DSGSD, also considering the border effects. The results showed that the convex profile of the slope favors the development of displacements along the lateral valley, with a relevant reduction in the safety factor, justifying the existing landslides.

Keywords: Deep seated gravitational slope deformation, Italy, landslide, numerical modeling.

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Authors: Irakli V. Gugushvili, Nickolay M. Evstigneev

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Numerical integration of initial boundary problem for advection equation in 3 ℜ is considered. The method used is  conditionally stable semi-Lagrangian advection scheme with high order interpolation on unstructured mesh. In order to increase time step integration the BFECC method with limiter TVD correction is used. The method is adopted on parallel graphic processor unit environment using NVIDIA CUDA and applied in Navier-Stokes solver. It is shown that the calculation on NVIDIA GeForce 8800  GPU is 184 times faster than on one processor AMDX2 4800+ CPU. The method is extended to the incompressible fluid dynamics solver. Flow over a Cylinder for 3D case is compared to the experimental data.

Keywords: Advection equations, CUDA technology, Flow overthe 3D Cylinder, Incompressible Pressure Projection Solver, Parallel computation.

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Authors: M. Yoneda

Abstract:

It is known that stationary human occupants act as dynamic mass-spring-damper systems and can change the modal properties of civil engineering structures. This paper describes the full scale measurement to explain the tuned mass damper effects of stationary people on structural damping of footbridge with center span length of 33 m. A human body can be represented by a lumped system consisting of masses, springs, and dashpots. Complex eigenvalue calculation is also conducted by using ISO5982:1981 human model (two degree of freedom system). Based on experimental and analytical results for the footbridge with the stationary people in the standing position, it is demonstrated that stationary people behave as a tuned mass damper and that ISO5982:1981 human model can explain the structural damping characteristics measured in the field.

Keywords: Dynamic interaction, footbridge, stationary people, structural damping.

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Authors: Khin Thida Latt, Mineo Kaneko, Yoichi Shinoda

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In Partitioned Optical Passive Stars POPS network,nodes and couplers become free after slot to slot in some computation.It is necessary to efficiently utilize free couplers and nodes to be cost effective. Improving parallelism, we present the fast data summation algorithm for multiple problem spaces on P OP S(g, g) with smaller number of nodes for the case of d =n = g. For the case of d >n > g, we simulate the calculation of large number of data items dedicated to larger system with many nodes on smaller system with smaller number of nodes. The algorithm is faster than the best know algorithm and using smaller number of nodes and groups make the system low cost and practical.

Keywords: Partitioned optical passive stars network, parallelcomputing, optical computing, data sum

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Authors: Kiyohiro Yamazaki

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This paper considers a forming process of a single competitive factor in the digital camera industry from the viewpoint of product platform. To make product development easier for companies and to increase product introduction ratios, development efforts concentrate on improving and strengthening certain product attributes, and it is born in the process that the product platform is formed continuously. It is pointed out that the formation of this product platform raises product development efficiency of individual companies, but on the other hand, it has a trade-off relationship of causing unification of competitive factors in the whole industry. This research tries to analyze product specification data which were collected from the web page of digital camera companies. Specifically, this research collected all product specification data released in Japan from 1995 to 2003 and analyzed the composition of image sensor and optical lens; and it identified product platforms shared by multiple products and discussed their application. As a result, this research found that the product platformation was born in the development of the standard product for major market segmentation. Every major company has made product platforms of image sensors and optical lenses, and as a result, this research found that the competitive factors were unified in the entire industry throughout product platformation. In other words, this product platformation brought product development efficiency of individual firms; however, it also caused industrial competition factors to be unified in the industry.

Keywords: Digital camera industry, product evolution trajectory, product platform, unification of competitive factors.

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Authors: M. Byzedi, B. Saghafian

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Droughts are complex, natural hazards that, to a varying degree, affect some parts of the world every year. The range of drought impacts is related to drought occurring in different stages of the hydrological cycle and usually different types of droughts, such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomical are distinguished. Streamflow drought was analyzed by the method of truncation level (at 70% level) on daily discharges measured in 54 hydrometric stations in southwestern Iran. Frequency analysis was carried out for annual maximum series (AMS) of drought deficit volume and duration series. Some factors including physiographic, climatic, geologic, and vegetation cover were studied as influential factors in the regional analysis. According to the results of factor analysis, six most effective factors were identified as area, rainfall from December to February, the percent of area with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) <0.1, the percent of convex area, drainage density and the minimum of watershed elevation that explained 90.9% of variance. The homogenous regions were determined by cluster analysis and discriminate function analysis. Suitable multivariate regression models were evaluated for streamflow drought deficit volume with 2 years return period. The significance level of regression models was 0.01. The results showed that the watershed area is the most effective factor with high correlation with deficit volume. Also, drought duration was not a suitable drought index for regional analysis.

Keywords: Iran, Streamflow drought, truncation level method, regional analysis.

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Authors: P. C. Chiu, Jehnming Lin

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In this study, a 50-W CO₂ laser was used for the clad of 304L powders on the stainless steel substrate with a temperature sensor and image monitoring system. The laser power and cladding speed and focal position were modified to achieve the requirement of the workpiece flatness and mechanical properties. The numerical calculation is based on ANSYS to analyze the temperature change of the moving heat source at different surface positions when coating the workpiece, and the effect of the process parameters on the bath size was discussed. The temperature of stainless steel powder in the nozzle outlet reacting with the laser was simulated as a process parameter. In the experiment, the difference of the thermal conductivity in three-dimensional space is compared with single-layer cladding and multi-layer cladding. The heat dissipation pattern of the single-layer cladding is the steel plate and the multi-layer coating is the workpiece itself. The relationship between the multi-clad temperature and the profile was analyzed by the temperature signal from an IR pyrometer.

Keywords: Laser cladding, temperature, profile, microstructure.

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Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, A. Castelli, E. Benini

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The flow field over a flat roof model building has been numerically investigated in order to determine threedimensional CFD guidelines for the calculation of the turbulent flow over a structure immersed in an atmospheric boundary layer. To this purpose, a complete validation campaign has been performed through a systematic comparison of numerical simulations with wind tunnel experimental data. Wind tunnel measurements and numerical predictions have been compared for five different vertical positions, respectively from the upstream leading edge to the downstream bottom edge of the analyzed model. Flow field characteristics in the neighborhood of the building model have been numerically investigated, allowing a quantification of the capabilities of the CFD code to predict the flow separation and the extension of the recirculation regions. The proposed calculations have allowed the development of a preliminary procedure to be used as guidance in selecting the appropriate grid configuration and corresponding turbulence model for the prediction of the flow field over a three-dimensional roof architecture dominated by flow separation.

Keywords: CFD, roof, building, wind

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Authors: Amit Kumar Meena, Joydip Dhar

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This paper is focused on the analysis and comparison of liquidity ratios and asset liability management practices in top three banks from public, private and foreign sector in India. The analysis is based upon the liquidity ratios calculation and the determination of maturity gap profiles for the banks under study. The paper also compares these banks maturity gap profiles with their corresponding group’s maturity gap profiles. This paper identifies the interest rate sensitivity of the balance sheet items of these banks to determine the gap between rate sensitive assets and rate sensitive liabilities. The results of this study suggest that overall banks in India have very good short term liquidity position and all banks are financing their short term liabilities by their long term assets.

Keywords: ALM, Liquidity ratios, Rate sensitive Assets, Rate Sensitive Liabilities.

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Authors: Taweechai Nuntawisuttiwong, Natasha Dejdumrong

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Geometric modeling plays an important role in the constructions and manufacturing of curve, surface and solid modeling. Their algorithms are critically important not only in the automobile, ship and aircraft manufacturing business, but are also absolutely necessary in a wide variety of modern applications, e.g., robotics, optimization, computer vision, data analytics and visualization. The calculation and display of geometric objects can be accomplished by these six techniques: Polynomial basis, Recursive, Iterative, Coefficient matrix, Polar form approach and Pyramidal algorithms. In this research, the coefficient matrix (simply called monomial form approach) will be used to model polynomial rectangular patches, i.e., Said-Ball, Wang-Ball, DP, Dejdumrong and NB1 surfaces. Some examples of the monomial forms for these surface modeling are illustrated in many aspects, e.g., construction, derivatives, model transformation, degree elevation and degress reduction.

Keywords: Monomial form, rectangular surfaces, CAGD curves, monomial matrix applications.

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Authors: Md Rashadul Islam, Mesbah U. Ahmed, Rafiqul A. Tarefder

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This study evaluates the back calculation of stiffness of a pavement section on Interstate 40 (I-40)in New Mexico through numerical analysis. Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) test has been conducted on a section on I-40. Layer stiffness of the pavement has been backcalculated by a backcalculation software, ELMOD, using the FWD test data. Commercial finite element software, ABAQUS, has been used to develop the Finite Element Model (FEM) of this pavement section. Geometry and layer thickness are collected from field coring. Input parameters i.e. stiffnesses of different layers of the pavement are used as the backcalculated ones. Resulting surface deflections at different radial distances from the FEM analysis are compared with field FWD deflection values. It shows close agreement between the FEM and FWD outputs. Therefore, the FWD test method can be considered to be a reliable test procedure for evaluating the in situ stiffness of pavement material.

Keywords: Falling weight deflectometer test, Finite element model, Flexible pavement, moduli, surface deflection.

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Authors: A. Benarous, D. Karmed, R. Haoui, A. Liazid

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The process for predicting the ballistic properties of a liquid rocket engine is based on the quantitative estimation of idealized performance deviations. In this aim, an equilibrium chemistry procedure is firstly developed and implemented in a Fortran routine. The thermodynamic formulation allows for the calculation of the theoretical performances of a rocket thrust chamber. In a second step, a computational fluid dynamic analysis of the turbulent reactive flow within the chamber is performed using a finite volume approach. The obtained values for the “quasi-real" performances account for both turbulent mixing and chemistryturbulence coupling. In the present work, emphasis is made on the combustion efficiency performance for which deviation is mainly due to radial gradients of static temperature and mixture ratio. Numerical values of the characteristic velocity are successfully compared with results from an industry-used code. The results are also confronted with the experimental data of a laboratory-scale rocket engine.

Keywords: JANAF methodology, Liquid rocket engine, Mascotte test-rig, Theoretical performances.

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Authors: H. R. Kazemi Nia, A. Yeganeh Fallah

Abstract:

Without uncertainty by applying external loads on beams, bending is created. The created bending in I-beams, puts one of the flanges in tension and the other one in compression. With increasing of bending, compression flange buckled and beam in out of its plane direction twisted, this twisting well-known as Lateral Torsional Buckling. Providing bending moment varieties along the beam, the critical moment is greater than the case its under pure bending. In other words, the value of bending gradient coefficient is always greater than unite. In this article by the use of " ANSYS 10.0" software near 80 3-D finite element models developed for the propose of analyzing beams` lateral torsional buckling and surveying influence of slenderness on beams' bending gradient coefficient. Results show that, presented Cb coefficient via AISC is not correct for some of beams and value of this coefficient is smaller than what proposed by AISC. Therefore instead of using a constant Cb for each case of loading , a function with two criterion for calculation of Cb coefficient for some cases is proposed.

Keywords: Beams critical moment, Bending Gradient Coefficient, finite element, Lateral Torsional Buckling

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Authors: Emilija Miletic, Milos Krstic, Maxim Piz, Michael Methfessel

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In this work we present a solution for DAGC (Digital Automatic Gain Control) in WLAN receivers compatible to IEEE 802.11a/g standard. Those standards define communication in 5/2.4 GHz band using Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing OFDM modulation scheme. WLAN Transceiver that we have used enables gain control over Low Noise Amplifier (LNA) and a Variable Gain Amplifier (VGA). The control over those signals is performed in our digital baseband processor using dedicated hardware block DAGC. DAGC in this process is used to automatically control the VGA and LNA in order to achieve better signal-to-noise ratio, decrease FER (Frame Error Rate) and hold the average power of the baseband signal close to the desired set point. DAGC function in baseband processor is done in few steps: measuring power levels of baseband samples of an RF signal,accumulating the differences between the measured power level and actual gain setting, adjusting a gain factor of the accumulation, and applying the adjusted gain factor the baseband values. Based on the measurement results of RSSI signal dependence to input power we have concluded that this digital AGC can be implemented applying the simple linearization of the RSSI. This solution is very simple but also effective and reduces complexity and power consumption of the DAGC. This DAGC is implemented and tested both in FPGA and in ASIC as a part of our WLAN baseband processor. Finally, we have integrated this circuit in a compact WLAN PCMCIA board based on MAC and baseband ASIC chips designed from us.

Keywords: WLAN, AGC, RSSI, baseband processor

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Authors: Hocine Hammoum, Karima Bouzelha, Lounis Ziani, Lounis Hamitouche

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In this paper, we study a complex structure which is an apartment building surmounted by a reinforced concrete water tank. The tank located on the top floor of the building is a container with capacity of 1000 m³. The building is complex in its design, its calculation and by its behavior under earthquake effect. This structure located in Algiers and aged of 53 years has been subjected to several earthquakes, but the earthquake of May 21^st, 2003 with a magnitude of 6.7 on the Richter scale that struck Boumerdes region at 40 Kms East of Algiers was fatal for it. It was downgraded after an investigation study because the central core sustained serious damage. In this paper, to estimate the degree of its damages, the seismic performance of the structure will be evaluated taking into account the hydrodynamic effect, using a static equivalent nonlinear analysis called pushover.

Keywords: Performance analysis, building, reinforced concrete tank, seismic analysis, nonlinear analysis, hydrodynamic, pushover.

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Authors: N. Chegeni, M. J. Tahmasebi Birgani

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Equivalent fields are frequently used for central axis depth-dose calculations of rectangular and irregular shaped photon beam. Since most of the proposed models to calculate the equivalent square field, are dosimetry-based, a simple physical-based method to calculate the equivalent square field size was used as the basis of this study. The table of the sides of the equivalent square for rectangular fields was constructed and then compared with the well-known tables of BJR and Venselaar with the average relative error percentage of 2.5±2.5 % and 1.5±1.5 % respectively. To evaluate the accuracy of this method, the PDDs were measured for some special irregular symmetric and asymmetric treatment fields and their equivalent squares for Siemens Primus Plus linear accelerator for both energies 6 and 18MV. The mean relative differences of PDDs measurement for these fields and their equivalent square was approximately 1% or less. As a result, this method can be employed to calculate equivalent field not only for rectangular fields but also for any irregular symmetric or asymmetric field.

Keywords: Equivalent field, asymmetric field, irregular field, multi leaf collimators.

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Authors: Michal Natora, Felix Franke, Klaus Obermayer

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Linear convolutive filters are fast in calculation and in application, and thus, often used for real-time processing of continuous data streams. In the case of transient signals, a filter has not only to detect the presence of a specific waveform, but to estimate its arrival time as well. In this study, a measure is presented which indicates the performance of detectors in achieving both of these tasks simultaneously. Furthermore, a new sub-class of linear filters within the class of filters which minimize the quadratic response is proposed. The proposed filters are more flexible than the existing ones, like the adaptive matched filter or the minimum power distortionless response beamformer, and prove to be superior with respect to that measure in certain settings. Simulations of a real-time scenario confirm the advantage of these filters as well as the usefulness of the performance measure.

Keywords: Adaptive matched filter, minimum variance distortionless response, beam forming, Capon beam former, linear filters, performance measure.

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Authors: Kemal Comakli, Meryem Terhan

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In this study, the potential of heat recovery from waste flue gas was examined in 60 MW district heating system of a university, and fuel saving was aimed by using the recovered heat in the system as a source again. Various scenarios are intended to make use of waste heat. For this purpose, actual operation data of the system were taken. Besides, the heat recovery units that consist of heat exchangers such as flue gas condensers, economizers or air pre-heaters were designed theoretically for each scenario. Energy analysis of natural gas-fired boiler’s exhaust flue gas in the system, and economic analysis of heat recovery units to predict payback periods were done. According to calculation results, the waste heat loss ratio from boiler flue gas in the system was obtained as average 16%. Thanks to the heat recovery units, thermal efficiency of the system can be increased, and fuel saving can be provided. At the same time, a huge amount of green gas emission can be decreased by installing the heat recovery units.

Keywords: Heat recovery from flue gas, energy analysis of flue gas, economical analysis, payback period.

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Authors: Heng Han, Zhilei Liang, Xiangong Zhou

Abstract:

In this paper, the finite element method is used to study the temperature field of the main cable of the suspension bridge, and the calculation method of the average temperature of the cross-section of the main cable suitable for the construction control of the cable system is proposed. By comparing and analyzing the temperature field of the main cable with five diameters, a reasonable diameter limit for calculating the average temperature of the cross section of the main cable by finite element method is proposed. The results show that the maximum error of this method is less than 1 ℃, which meets the requirements of construction control accuracy. For the main cable with a diameter greater than 400 mm, the surface temperature measuring points combined with the finite element method shall be used to calculate the average cross-section temperature.

Keywords: Suspension bridge, main cable, temperature field, finite element.

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Authors: T. Kritsana, P. Sawitri, P. Teeratas

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This article aims to study the effect of pressure on rocket motor case by Finite Element Method simulation to select optimal material in rocket motor manufacturing process. In this study, cylindrical tubes with outside diameter of 122 mm and thickness of 3 mm are used for simulation. Defined rocket motor case materials are AISI4130, AISI1026, AISI1045, AL2024 and AL7075. Internal pressure used for the simulation is 22 MPa.

The result from Finite Element Method shows that at a pressure of 22 MPa rocket motor case produced by AISI4130, AISI1045 and AL7075 can be used. A comparison of the result between AISI4130, AISI1045 and AL7075 shows that AISI4130 has minimum principal stress and confirm the results of Finite Element Method by the used of calculation method found that, the results from Finite Element Method has good reliability.

Keywords: Rocket motor case, Finite Element Method, principal Stress.

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Authors: Zulfajri Basri Hasanuddin

Abstract:

There is an increasing demand for broadband services in Indonesia. Therefore, the answer is the use of Ka-Band which has some advantages such as wider bandwidth, the higher transmission speeds, and smaller size of antenna in the ground. However, rain attenuation is the primary factor in the degradation of signal at the Kaband. In this paper, the author will determine whether the Ka-band frequency can be implemented in Indonesia which has high intensity of rainfall.

Keywords: Ka-Band, Link Budget, Link Availability, BER, Eb/No, C/N.

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Authors: Jia-Chuan Lin, Meng-Kai Hsu, Hsi-Ting Hou, Sin-Hong Liu

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The electrolyte stirring method of anodization etching process for manufacturing porous silicon (PS) is reported in this work. Two experimental setups of nature air stirring (PS-ASM) and electrolyte stirring (PS-ESM) are employed to clarify the influence of stirring mechanisms on electrochemical etching process. Compared to traditional fabrication without any stirring apparatus (PS-TM), a large plateau region of PS surface structure is obtained from samples with both stirring methods by the 3D-profiler measurement. Moreover, the light emission response is also improved by both proposed electrolyte stirring methods due to the cycling force in electrolyte could effectively enhance etch-carrier distribution while the electrochemical etching process is made. According to the analysis of statistical calculation of photoluminescence (PL) intensity, lower standard deviations are obtained from PS-samples with studied stirring methods, i.e. the uniformity of PL-intensity is effectively improved. The calculated deviations of PL-intensity are 93.2, 74.5 and 64, respectively, for PS-TM, PS-ASM and PS-ESM.

Keywords: Porous Silicon, Photoluminescence, Uniformity Carrier Stirring Method

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Authors: T. Spiegel, J. Siegmann, C. F. Durach

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Challenges resulting from an international and dynamic business environment are increasingly being passed on from manufacturing companies to external service providers. Especially providers of complex, customer-specific industry services have to cope with continuously changing requirements. This is particularly true for contract logistics service providers. They are forced to develop efficient and highly flexible structures and strategies to meet their customer’s needs. One core element they have to focus on is the reorganization of their service development and sales process. Based on an action research approach, this study develops and tests a concept to streamline tender management for contract logistics service providers. The concept of modularized service architecture is deployed in order to derive a practice-oriented approach for the modularization of complex service portfolios and the design of customized quotes. These findings are evaluated regarding their applicability in other service sectors and practical recommendations are given.

Keywords: Contract Logistics, Modularization, Service Development, Tender Management.

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Authors: N. M. Nawi, R. S. Ransing, M. R. Ransing

Abstract:

The conjugate gradient optimization algorithm is combined with the modified back propagation algorithm to yield a computationally efficient algorithm for training multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks (CGFR/AG). The computational efficiency is enhanced by adaptively modifying initial search direction as described in the following steps: (1) Modification on standard back propagation algorithm by introducing a gain variation term in the activation function, (2) Calculation of the gradient descent of error with respect to the weights and gains values and (3) the determination of a new search direction by using information calculated in step (2). The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing accuracy and computation time with the conjugate gradient algorithm used in MATLAB neural network toolbox. The results show that the computational efficiency of the proposed method was better than the standard conjugate gradient algorithm.

Keywords: Adaptive gain variation, back-propagation, activation function, conjugate gradient, search direction.

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Authors: Yash Pal, A.Swarup, Bhim Singh

Abstract:

This paper presents a novel control strategy of a threephase four-wire Unified Power Quality (UPQC) for an improvement in power quality. The UPQC is realized by integration of series and shunt active power filters (APFs) sharing a common dc bus capacitor. The shunt APF is realized using a thee-phase, four leg voltage source inverter (VSI) and the series APF is realized using a three-phase, three leg VSI. A control technique based on unit vector template technique (UTT) is used to get the reference signals for series APF, while instantaneous sequence component theory (ISCT) is used for the control of Shunt APF. The performance of the implemented control algorithm is evaluated in terms of power-factor correction, load balancing, neutral source current mitigation and mitigation of voltage and current harmonics, voltage sag and swell in a three-phase four-wire distribution system for different combination of linear and non-linear loads. In this proposed control scheme of UPQC, the current/voltage control is applied over the fundamental supply currents/voltages instead of fast changing APFs currents/voltages, there by reducing the computational delay and the required sensors. MATLAB/Simulink based simulations are obtained, which support the functionality of the UPQC. MATLAB/Simulink based simulations are obtained, which support the functionality of the UPQC.

Keywords: Power Quality, UPQC, Harmonics, Load Balancing, Power Factor Correction, voltage harmonic mitigation, currentharmonic mitigation, voltage sag, swell

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Authors: Abdulkadir Abu Lawal

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The study was carried out to establish the probability density function of some selected building construction projects of similar complexity delivered using Bill of Quantities (BQ) and Lump Sum (LS) forms of contract, and to draw a reliability scenario for each form of contract. 30 of such delivered projects are analyzed for each of the contract forms using Weibull Analysis, and their Weibull functions (α, and β) are determined based on their completion times. For the BQ form of contract delivered projects, α is calculated as 1.6737E20 and β as + 0.0115 and for the LS form, α is found to be 5.6556E03 and β is determined as + 0.4535. Using these values, respective probability density functions are calculated and plotted, as handy tool for risk analysis of future projects of similar characteristics. By input of variables from other projects, decision making processes can be made for a whole project or its components using EVM Analysis in project evaluation and review techniques. This framework, as a quantitative approach, depends on the assumption of normality in projects completion time, it can help greatly in determining the completion time probability for veritable projects using any of the contract forms under consideration. Projects aspects that are not amenable to measurement, on the other hand, can be analyzed using fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic. This scenario can be drawn for different types of building construction projects, and using different suitable forms of contract in projects delivery.

Keywords: Building construction, Projects, Forms of contract, Probability density function, Reliability scenario.

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Authors: R. M. Barron, B. Zogheib

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A new numerical method for solving the twodimensional, steady, incompressible, viscous flow equations on a Curvilinear staggered grid is presented in this paper. The proposed methodology is finite difference based, but essentially takes advantage of the best features of two well-established numerical formulations, the finite difference and finite volume methods. Some weaknesses of the finite difference approach are removed by exploiting the strengths of the finite volume method. In particular, the issue of velocity-pressure coupling is dealt with in the proposed finite difference formulation by developing a pressure correction equation in a manner similar to the SIMPLE approach commonly used in finite volume formulations. However, since this is purely a finite difference formulation, numerical approximation of fluxes is not required. Results obtained from the present method are based on the first-order upwind scheme for the convective terms, but the methodology can easily be modified to accommodate higher order differencing schemes.

Keywords: Curvilinear, finite difference, finite volume, SIMPLE.

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Authors: Farid Ezanee Mohamed Ghazali

Abstract:

The Malaysia Highway Authority (MHA) was established by the Government in 1980 for the purpose of designing, constructing and maintaining toll highways in Malaysia that include the North-South Expressway and the Penang Bridge, which were procured using the publicly-funded traditional procurement. However following a recession in the mid 80-s, the operations of these tolledhighways had been privatized to ensure that their operational services continue through private financing as a result of long-term concession agreement concurred between the Malaysian Government and private operators. The change in the contract strategy for highway projects in Malaysia would have a great tendency to dictate a significant risk exposure towards the key parties involved, particularly the Malaysian Government as project principal, unless operational risks are clearly identified and managed via appropriate mitigation measures prior to a contract signing. This research identifies potential operational risks that have a possibility to occur in highway projects in Malaysia from the perspective of public sector clients. Since this research focuses on the operational risks for highway projects in Malaysia, the initial results acquired from literature review on the operational risks of highway projects in some Asian countries are then justified by a number of key individuals from the MHA through interviews. As a result, among key operational risks that have possibility to occur in the highway projects in Malaysia include initial toll-tariff decided by the Government, traffic congestion, change of road network and overloaded freight transportation, which could cause damage to the road surface and hence affecting the operation of a particular highway.

Keywords: Malaysia, operating highway project, operational risk.

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Authors: Balimu Mwiya, Mundia Muya, Chabota Kaliba, Peter Mukalula

Abstract:

Factors affecting construction unit cost vary depending on a country’s political, economic, social and technological inclinations. Factors affecting construction costs have been studied from various perspectives. Analysis of cost factors requires an appreciation of a country’s practices. Identified cost factors provide an indication of a country’s construction economic strata. The purpose of this paper is to identify the essential factors that affect unit cost estimation and their breakdown using artificial neural networks. Twenty five (25) identified cost factors in road construction were subjected to a questionnaire survey and employing SPSS factor analysis the factors were reduced to eight. The 8 factors were analysed using neural network (NN) to determine the proportionate breakdown of the cost factors in a given construction unit rate. NN predicted that political environment accounted 44% of the unit rate followed by contractor capacity at 22% and financial delays, project feasibility and overhead & profit each at 11%. Project location, material availability and corruption perception index had minimal impact on the unit cost from the training data provided. Quantified cost factors can be incorporated in unit cost estimation models (UCEM) to produce more accurate estimates. This can create improvements in the cost estimation of infrastructure projects and establish a benchmark standard to assist the process of alignment of work practises and training of new staff, permitting the on-going development of best practises in cost estimation to become more effective.

Keywords: Construction cost factors, neural networks, roadworks, Zambian Construction Industry.

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