Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 30135
Stochastic Risk Analysis Framework for Building Construction Projects

Authors: Abdulkadir Abu Lawal

Abstract:

The study was carried out to establish the probability density function of some selected building construction projects of similar complexity delivered using Bill of Quantities (BQ) and Lump Sum (LS) forms of contract, and to draw a reliability scenario for each form of contract. 30 of such delivered projects are analyzed for each of the contract forms using Weibull Analysis, and their Weibull functions (α, and β) are determined based on their completion times. For the BQ form of contract delivered projects, α is calculated as 1.6737E20 and β as + 0.0115 and for the LS form, α is found to be 5.6556E03 and β is determined as + 0.4535. Using these values, respective probability density functions are calculated and plotted, as handy tool for risk analysis of future projects of similar characteristics. By input of variables from other projects, decision making processes can be made for a whole project or its components using EVM Analysis in project evaluation and review techniques. This framework, as a quantitative approach, depends on the assumption of normality in projects completion time, it can help greatly in determining the completion time probability for veritable projects using any of the contract forms under consideration. Projects aspects that are not amenable to measurement, on the other hand, can be analyzed using fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic. This scenario can be drawn for different types of building construction projects, and using different suitable forms of contract in projects delivery.

Keywords: Building construction, Projects, Forms of contract, Probability density function, Reliability scenario.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1132250

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 350

References:


[1] Obiegbu, M. E. (1998): Monitoring and Accountability in Project Execution in Nigerian Construction Sector. Nigerian Institute of Building, NIOB Journal, 1 (1), 28.
[2] Al-Bashir, J. E. and Cradall, K. C. (1990): Risk Management Approach for Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management ASCZ, 116(93), 533 -543.
[3] Franks, J. (1998): Building Procurement Systems: A Client’s Guides (3rd Ed). Addison Wesley Longman Ltd. Harlow- England.
[4] IA&CE, 2015, Institute of Appraisers and Cost engineers, National Conference on Engineering Valuation Cost in Engineering. ‘Engineering Economy in the Implementation of National Integrated Infrastructure Masterplan. Abuja, Nigeria, on 19-06-2015.
[5] Ademoroti., A. (1995). President Nigerian Institute of Building. As guest Speaker at Building Materials Exhibition, at Lagos, National Theatre Lagos, Nigeria.
[6] Jibrin, A.A. (1996): An annual Lecture Organized by the Nigerian Institute of Building Executive Council. ‘Indigenization of the Construction Sector in Nigeria.’ N.I.O.B. Newsletter, 2(2),6, 96.
[7] Flanagan, R. and Norman, G. (1993): Risk Management in Construction. Backwell Publications, London.
[8] Yeo K. T. (1995): Strategy for Risk Management through Problem Framing in Technology Acquisition. Journal of Project Management. 13(4), 219 -224.
[9] Raftery, J. (1994): Risk Analysis in Project Management. E8 FN Spon, London.
[10] Wirba, E. N. Tah, J.H.M and Howes, R. (1996): Risk Interdependencies and Natural Language Computations Engineering and Architectural Management, 3(4), 251 – 269.
[11] Paek, J. H; Lee, Y. W. and Ock, J. H. (1993): Pricing Construction Risks: Fuzzy set Application. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. 199(4), 743 – 756.
[12] Morris, P.W. and Hough, G. and Tuner (1987): The Anatomy of Major Projects, Association of Major Projects.
[13] Robert, L.K.T. (1995): Risk and Guarantee in B&T Tenders: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 121(2), 183-188.