Search results for: Mean Absolute Error

Authors: Nureni O. Adeboye, Dawud A. Agunbiade

Abstract:

This research attempts to investigate the effects of heteroscedasticity and periodicity in a Panel Data Regression Model (PDRM) by extending previous works on balanced panel data estimation within the context of fitting PDRM for Banks audit fee. The estimation of such model was achieved through the derivation of Joint Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for homoscedasticity and zero-serial correlation, a conditional LM test for zero serial correlation given heteroscedasticity of varying degrees as well as conditional LM test for homoscedasticity given first order positive serial correlation via a two-way error component model. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for 81 different variations, of which its design assumed a uniform distribution under a linear heteroscedasticity function. Each of the variation was iterated 1000 times and the assessment of the three estimators considered are based on Variance, Absolute bias (ABIAS), Mean square error (MSE) and the Root Mean Square (RMSE) of parameters estimates. Eighteen different models at different specified conditions were fitted, and the best-fitted model is that of within estimator when heteroscedasticity is severe at either zero or positive serial correlation value. LM test results showed that the tests have good size and power as all the three tests are significant at 5% for the specified linear form of heteroscedasticity function which established the facts that Banks operations are severely heteroscedastic in nature with little or no periodicity effects.

Keywords: Audit fee, heteroscedasticity, Lagrange multiplier test, periodicity.

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Authors: Banaja Mohanty, Prakash Kumar Hota

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates dynamic performance evaluation of load frequency control (LFC) with different intelligent techniques. All non-linearities and physical constraints have been considered in simulation studies such as governor dead band (GDB), generation rate constraint (GRC) and boiler dynamics. The conventional integral time absolute error has been considered as objective function. The design problem is formulated as an optimisation problem and particle swarm optimisation (PSO), bacterial foraging optimisation algorithm (BFOA) and differential evolution (DE) are employed to search optimal controller parameters. The superiority of the proposed approach has been shown by comparing the results with published fuzzy logic control (FLC) for the same interconnected power system. The comparison is done using various performance measures like overshoot, undershoot, settling time and standard error criteria of frequency and tie-line power deviation following a step load perturbation (SLP). It is noticed that, the dynamic performance of proposed controller is better than FLC. Further, robustness analysis is carried out by varying the time constants of speed governor, turbine, tie-line power in the range of +40% to -40% to demonstrate the robustness of the proposed DE optimized PID controller.

Keywords: Automatic generation control, governor dead band, generation rate constraint, differential evolution.

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Authors: Shiraz Ahmad, Zhe-Ming Lu

Abstract:

An effective visual error concealment method has been presented by employing a robust rotation, scale, and translation (RST) invariant partial patch matching model (RSTI-PPMM) and exemplar-based inpainting. While the proposed robust and inherently feature-enhanced texture synthesis approach ensures the generation of excellent and perceptually plausible visual error concealment results, the outlier pruning property guarantees the significant quality improvements, both quantitatively and qualitatively. No intermediate user-interaction is required for the pre-segmented media and the presented method follows a bootstrapping approach for an automatic visual loss recovery and the image and video error concealment.

Keywords: Exemplar-based image and video inpainting, outlierpruning, RST-invariant partial patch matching model (RSTI-PPMM), visual error concealment.

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Authors: Fangfang Meng, Shuang Cong

Abstract:

In the closed quantum system, if the control system is strongly regular and all other eigenstates are directly coupled to the target state, the control system can be asymptotically stabilized at the target eigenstate by the Lyapunov control based on the state error. However, if the control system is not strongly regular or as long as there is one eigenstate not directly coupled to the target state, the situations will become complicated. In this paper, we propose an implicit Lyapunov control method based on the state error to solve the convergence problems for these two degenerate cases. And at the same time, we expand the target state from the eigenstate to the arbitrary pure state. Especially, the proposed method is also applicable in the control system with multi-control Hamiltonians. On this basis, the convergence of the control systems is analyzed using the LaSalle invariance principle. Furthermore, the relation between the implicit Lyapunov functions of the state distance and the state error is investigated. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed implicit Lyapunov control method. The comparisons of the control effect using the implicit Lyapunov control method based on the state distance with that of the state error are given.

Keywords: Implicit Lyapunov control, state error, degenerate cases, convergence.

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Authors: Kamil Ďurana, Robert Černý

Abstract:

An electrical apparatus for measuring moisture content was developed by our laboratory and uses dependence of electrical properties on water content in studied material. Error analysis of the apparatus was run by measuring different volumes of water in a simplified specimen, i.e. hollow plexiglass block, in order to avoid as many side-effects as possible. Obtained data were processed using both basic and advanced statistics and results were compared with each other. The influence of water content on accuracy of measured data was studied as well as the influence of variation of apparatus' proper arrangement or factual methodics of its usage. The overall coefficient of variation was 4%. There was no trend found in results of error dependence on water content. Comparison with current surveys led to a conclusion, that the studied apparatus can be used for indirect measurement of water content in porous materials, with expectable error and under known conditions. Factual experiments with porous materials are not involved, but are currently under investigation.

Keywords: device, capacitance method, error analysis, moisture meter

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Authors: R. Sabre, W. Horrigue, J. C. Simon

Abstract:

This paper is interested in two difficulties encountered in practice when observing a continuous time process. The first is that we cannot observe a process over a time interval; we only take discrete observations. The second is the process frequently observed with a constant additive error. It is important to give an estimator of the spectral density of such a process taking into account the additive observation error and the choice of the discrete observation times. In this work, we propose an estimator based on the spectral smoothing of the periodogram by the polynomial Jackson kernel reducing the additive error. In order to solve the aliasing phenomenon, this estimator is constructed from observations taken at well-chosen times so as to reduce the estimator to the field where the spectral density is not zero. We show that the proposed estimator is asymptotically unbiased and consistent. Thus we obtain an estimate solving the two difficulties concerning the choice of the instants of observations of a continuous time process and the observations affected by a constant error.

Keywords: Spectral density, stable processes, aliasing, periodogram.

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Authors: Jun Sung Go, Jong Kang Park, Jong Tae Kim

Abstract:

As semi-conductor manufacturing technology evolves; the single event transient problem becomes more significant issue. Single event transient has a critical impact on both combinational and sequential logic circuits, so it is important to evaluate the soft error tolerance of the circuits at the design stage. In this paper, we present a soft error detecting simulation using scan chain. The simulation model generates a single event transient randomly in the circuit, and detects the soft error during the execution of the test patterns. We verified this model by inserting a scan chain in an 8051 microprocessor using 65 nm CMOS technology. While the test patterns generated by ATPG program are passing through the scan chain, we insert a single event transient and detect the number of soft errors per sub-module. The experiments show that the soft error rates per cell area of the SFR module is 277% larger than other modules.

Keywords: Scan chain, single event transient, soft error, 8051 processor.

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Authors: Chaiwat Tantarangsee

Abstract:

The purposes of this study are 1) to study the frequent English writing errors of students registering the course: Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II, and 2) to find out the results of writing error correction by using coded indirect corrective feedback and writing error treatments. Samples include 28 2nd year English Major students, Faculty of Education, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Tool for experimental study includes the lesson plan of the course; Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II, and tool for data collection includes 4 writing tests of short texts. The research findings disclose that frequent English writing errors found in this course comprise 7 types of grammatical errors, namely Fragment sentence, Subject-verb agreement, Wrong form of verb tense, Singular or plural noun endings, Run-ons sentence, Wrong form of verb pattern and Lack of parallel structure. Moreover, it is found that the results of writing error correction by using coded indirect corrective feedback and error treatment reveal the overall reduction of the frequent English writing errors and the increase of students’ achievement in the writing of short texts with the significance at .05.

Keywords: Coded indirect corrective feedback, error correction, error treatment, frequent English writing errors.

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Authors: H. Abderrezek, M. N. Harmas

Abstract:

DC-DC converters are widely used as reliable power source for many industrial and military applications, computers and electronic devices. Several control methods were developed for DC-DC converters control mostly with asymptotic convergence. Synergetic control (SC) is a proven robust control approach and will be used here in a so called terminal scheme to achieve finite time convergence. Lyapounov synthesis is adopted to assure controlled system stability. Furthermore particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, based on an integral time absolute of error (ITAE) criterion will be used to optimize controller parameters. Simulation of terminal synergetic control of a DC-DC converter is carried out for different operating conditions and results are compared to classic synergetic control performance, that which demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed control method.

Keywords: DC-DC converter, PSO, finite time, terminal, synergetic control.

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Authors: Johann Barbier, Guillaume Sicot, Sebastien Houcke

Abstract:

In this paper we present a generic approach for the problem of the blind estimation of the parameters of linear and convolutional error correcting codes. In a non-cooperative context, an adversary has only access to the noised transmission he has intercepted. The intercepter has no knowledge about the parameters used by the legal users. So, before having acess to the information he has first to blindly estimate the parameters of the error correcting code of the communication. The presented approach has the main advantage that the problem of reconstruction of such codes can be expressed in a very simple way. This allows us to evaluate theorical bounds on the complexity of the reconstruction process but also bounds on the estimation rate. We show that some classical reconstruction techniques are optimal and also explain why some of them have theorical complexities greater than these experimentally observed.

Keywords: Blind estimation parameters, error correcting codes, non-cooperative context, reconstruction algorithm

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Authors: Chaiwat Tantarangsee

Abstract:

The purposes of this study are 1) to study the frequent English writing errors of students registering the course: Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II, and 2) to find out the results of writing error correction by using coded indirect corrective feedback and writing error treatments. Samples include 28 2nd year English Major students, Faculty of Education, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Tool for experimental study includes the lesson plan of the course; Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II, and tool for data collection includes 4 writing tests of short texts. The research findings disclose that frequent English writing errors found in this course comprise 7 types of grammatical errors, namely Fragment sentence, Subject-verb agreement, Wrong form of verb tense, Singular or plural noun endings, Run-ons sentence, Wrong form of verb pattern and Lack of parallel structure. Moreover, it is found that the results of writing error correction by using coded indirect corrective feedback and error treatment reveal the overall reduction of the frequent English writing errors and the increase of students’ achievement in the writing of short texts with the significance at .05.

Keywords: Coded indirect corrective feedback, error correction, and error treatment.

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Authors: Matthias Kirmse, Uwe Petersohn, Elief Paffrath

Abstract:

As in today's semiconductor industries test costs can make up to 50 percent of the total production costs, an efficient test error detection becomes more and more important. In this paper, we present a new machine learning approach to test error detection that should provide a faster recognition of test system faults as well as an improved test error recall. The key idea is to learn a classifier ensemble, detecting typical test error patterns in wafer test results immediately after finishing these tests. Since test error detection has not yet been discussed in the machine learning community, we define central problem-relevant terms and provide an analysis of important domain properties. Finally, we present comparative studies reflecting the failure detection performance of three individual classifiers and three ensemble methods based upon them. As base classifiers we chose a decision tree learner, a support vector machine and a Bayesian network, while the compared ensemble methods were simple and weighted majority vote as well as stacking. For the evaluation, we used cross validation and a specially designed practical simulation. By implementing our approach in a semiconductor test department for the observation of two products, we proofed its practical applicability.

Keywords: Ensemble methods, fault detection, machine learning, semiconductor test.

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Authors: J.S.C. Prentice

Abstract:

The RK5GL3 method is a numerical method for solving initial value problems in ordinary differential equations, and is based on a combination of a fifth-order Runge-Kutta method and 3-point Gauss-Legendre quadrature. In this paper we describe the propagation of local errors in this method, and show that the global order of RK5GL3 is expected to be six, one better than the underlying Runge- Kutta method.

Keywords: RK5GL3, RKrGLm, Runge-Kutta, Gauss-Legendre, initial value problem, order, local error, global error.

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Authors: Sandra Ondrušová, Jaroslav Polec

Abstract:

Arbitrarily shaped video objects are an important concept in modern video coding methods. The techniques presently used are not based on image elements but rather video objects having an arbitrary shape. In this paper, spatial shape error concealment techniques to be used for object-based image in error-prone environments are proposed. We consider a geometric shape representation consisting of the object boundary, which can be extracted from the α-plane. Three different approaches are used to replace a missing boundary segment: Bézier interpolation, Bézier approximation and NURBS approximation. Experimental results on object shape with different concealment difficulty demonstrate the performance of the proposed methods. Comparisons with proposed methods are also presented.

Keywords: error concealment, shape coding, object-based image, NURBS, Bézier curves.

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Authors: K. K. Aggarwal, Yogesh Singh, Arvinder Kaur, Ruchika Malhotra

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Importance of software quality is increasing leading to development of new sophisticated techniques, which can be used in constructing models for predicting quality attributes. One such technique is Artificial Neural Network (ANN). This paper examined the application of ANN for software quality prediction using Object- Oriented (OO) metrics. Quality estimation includes estimating maintainability of software. The dependent variable in our study was maintenance effort. The independent variables were principal components of eight OO metrics. The results showed that the Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE) was 0.265 of ANN model. Thus we found that ANN method was useful in constructing software quality model.

Keywords: Software quality, Measurement, Metrics, Artificial neural network, Coupling, Cohesion, Inheritance, Principal component analysis.

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Authors: Hyun-Gwang Cho, Wan-Seok Yang, Su-Jin Kim, Jeong-Seok Oh, Chun-Hong Park

Abstract:

Machine tools are improved capacity remarkably during the 20th century. Improving the precision of machine tools are related with precision of products and accurate processing is always associated with the subject of interest. There are a lot of the elements that determine the precision of the machine, as guides, motors, structure, control, etc. In this paper we focused on the phenomenon that vertical movement system has worse precision than horizontal movement system even they were made up with same components. The vertical movement system needs to be studied differently from the horizontal movement system to develop its precision. The vertical movement system has load on its transfer direction and it makes the movement system weak in precision than the horizontal one. Some machines have mechanical counter balance, hydraulic or pneumatic counter balance to compensate the weight of the machine head. And there is several type of compensating the weight. It can push the machine head and also can use chain or wire lope to transfer the compensating force from counter balance to machine head. According to the type of compensating, there could be error from friction, pressure error of hydraulic or pressure control error. Also according to what to use for transferring the compensating force, transfer error of compensating force could be occur.

Keywords: Chain chordal action, counter balance, setup error, vertical positioning system.

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Authors: Insung Jung, lockjo Koo, Gi-Nam Wang

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to design a model of human vital sign prediction for decreasing prediction error by using two states mapping based time series neural network BP (back-propagation) model. Normally, lot of industries has been applying the neural network model by training them in a supervised manner with the error back-propagation algorithm for time series prediction systems. However, it still has a residual error between real value and prediction output. Therefore, we designed two states of neural network model for compensation of residual error which is possible to use in the prevention of sudden death and metabolic syndrome disease such as hypertension disease and obesity. We found that most of simulations cases were satisfied by the two states mapping based time series prediction model compared to normal BP. In particular, small sample size of times series were more accurate than the standard MLP model. We expect that this algorithm can be available to sudden death prevention and monitoring AGENT system in a ubiquitous homecare environment.

Keywords: Neural network, U-healthcare, prediction, timeseries, computer aided prediction.

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Authors: Mehmet Ozcan

Abstract:

This study is designed to investigate errors emerged in written texts produced by 30 Turkish EFL learners with an explanatory, and thus, qualitative perspective. Erroneous language elements were identified by the researcher first and then their grammaticality and intelligibility were checked by five native speakers of English. The analysis of the data showed that it is difficult to claim that an error stems from only one single factor since different features of an error are triggered by different factors. Our findings revealed two different types of errors: those which stem from the interference of L1 with L2 and those which are developmental ones. The former type contains more global errors whereas the errors in latter type are more intelligible.

Keywords: Contrastive analysis, Error analysis, Language acquisition, Language transfer, Turkish

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Authors: Leila Nasiri

Abstract:

In this paper, we present the concept of preinvex functions on the co-ordinates on an invex set and establish some triple integral inequalities of Hermite-Hadamard type for functions whose third order partial derivatives in absolute value are preinvex on the co-ordinates. The results presented here generalize the obtained results in earlier works for functions whose triple order partial derivatives in absolute value are convex on the co-ordinates on a rectangular box in R³.

Keywords: Co-ordinated preinvex functions, Hermite-Hadamard type inequalities, partial derivatives, triple integral.

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Authors: Davod Khojasteh Salkuyeh

Abstract:

An important task in solving second order linear ordinary differential equations by the finite difference is to choose a suitable stepsize h. In this paper, by using the stochastic arithmetic, the CESTAC method and the CADNA library we present a procedure to estimate the optimal stepsize hopt, the stepsize which minimizes the global error consisting of truncation and round-off error.

Keywords: Ordinary differential equations, optimal stepsize, error, stochastic arithmetic, CESTAC, CADNA.

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Authors: Michal Martinovič, Jaroslav Polec, Kvetoslava Kotuliaková

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In this paper we proposed multistage adaptive ARQ/HARQ/HARQ scheme. This method combines pure ARQ (Automatic Repeat reQuest) mode in low channel bit error rate and hybrid ARQ method using two different Reed-Solomon codes in middle and high error rate conditions. It follows, that our scheme has three stages. The main goal is to increase number of states in adaptive HARQ methods and be able to achieve maximum throughput for every channel bit error rate. We will prove the proposal by calculation and then with simulations in land mobile satellite channel environment. Optimization of scheme system parameters is described in order to maximize the throughput in the whole defined Signal-to- Noise Ratio (SNR) range in selected channel environment.

Keywords: Signal-to-noise ratio, throughput, forward error correction (FEC), pure and hybrid automatic repeat request (ARQ).

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Authors: D. Vidhyaprakash, A. Elango

Abstract:

In real-time applications, wheeled mobile robots are increasingly used and operated in extreme and diverse conditions traversing challenging surfaces such as a pitted, uneven terrain, natural flat, smooth terrain, as well as wet and dry surfaces. In order to accomplish such tasks, it is critical that the motion control functions without wheel slip and odometry error during the navigation of the two-wheeled mobile robot (WMR). Wheel slip and odometry error are disrupting factors on overall WMR performance in the form of deviation from desired trajectory, navigation, travel time and budgeted energy consumption. The wheeled mobile robot’s ability to operate at peak performance on various work surfaces without wheel slippage and odometry error is directly connected to four main parameters, which are the range of payload distribution, speed, wheel diameter, and wheel width. This paper analyses the effects of those parameters on overall performance and is concerned with determining the ideal range of parameters for optimum performance.

Keywords: Wheeled mobile robot (WMR), terrain, wheel slippage, odometry error, navigation.

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Authors: Man Li, Wanting Zhou, Lei Li

Abstract:

Communication stability is the primary concern of communication satellites. Communication satellites are easily affected by particle radiation to generate single event effects (SEE), which leads to soft errors (SE) of combinational logic circuit. The existing research on soft error rates (SER) of combined logic circuit is mostly based on the assumption that the logic gates being bombarded have the same pulse width. However, in the actual radiation environment, the pulse widths of the logic gates being bombarded are different due to different linear energy transfers (LET). In order to improve the accuracy of SER evaluation model, this paper proposes a soft error rates evaluation method based on LET. In this paper, we analyze the influence of LET on the pulse width of combinational logic and establish the pulse width model based on LET. Based on this model, the error rate of test circuit ISCAS’85 is calculated. Experimental results show that this model can be used for SER evaluation.

Keywords: Communication satellite, pulse width, soft error rates, linear energy transfer, LET.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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Authors: Insah Bhurtah, P. Clarel Catherine, K. M. Sunjiv Soyjaudah

Abstract:

The decoding of Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC) codes is operated over a redundant structure known as the bipartite graph, meaning that the full set of bit nodes is not absolutely necessary for decoder convergence. In 2008, Soyjaudah and Catherine designed a recovery algorithm for LDPC codes based on this assumption and showed that the error-correcting performance of their codes outperformed conventional LDPC Codes. In this work, the use of the recovery algorithm is further explored to test the performance of LDPC codes while the number of iterations is progressively increased. For experiments conducted with small blocklengths of up to 800 bits and number of iterations of up to 2000, the results interestingly demonstrate that contrary to conventional wisdom, the error-correcting performance keeps increasing with increasing number of iterations.

Keywords: Error-correcting codes, information theory, low-density parity-check codes, sum-product algorithm.

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Authors: Shazalina Mat Zin, Ahmad Abd. Majid, Ahmad Izani Md. Ismail, Muhammad Abbas

Abstract:

The generalized wave equation models various problems in sciences and engineering. In this paper, a new three-time level implicit approach based on cubic trigonometric B-spline for the approximate solution of wave equation is developed. The usual finite difference approach is used to discretize the time derivative while cubic trigonometric B-spline is applied as an interpolating function in the space dimension. Von Neumann stability analysis is used to analyze the proposed method. Two problems are discussed to exhibit the feasibility and capability of the method. The absolute errors and maximum error are computed to assess the performance of the proposed method. The results were found to be in good agreement with known solutions and with existing schemes in literature.

Keywords: Collocation method, Cubic trigonometric B-spline, Finite difference, Wave equation.

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Authors: Vitalice K. Oduol, C. Ardil

Abstract:

A method is presented for obtaining the error probability for block codes. The method is based on the eigenvalueeigenvector properties of the code correlation matrix. It is found that under a unary transformation and for an additive white Gaussian noise environment, the performance evaluation of a block code becomes a one-dimensional problem in which only one eigenvalue and its corresponding eigenvector are needed in the computation. The obtained error rate results show remarkable agreement between simulations and analysis.

Keywords: bit error rate, block codes, code correlation matrix, eigenstructure, soft-decision decoding, weight vector.

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Authors: T Panigrahi, G Panda, Mulgrew

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new approach for the performance analysis of adaptive filter with error saturation nonlinearity in the presence of impulsive noise. The performance analysis of adaptive filters includes both transient analysis which shows that how fast a filter learns and the steady-state analysis gives how well a filter learns. The recursive expressions for mean-square deviation(MSD) and excess mean-square error(EMSE) are derived based on weighted energy conservation arguments which provide the transient behavior of the adaptive algorithm. The steady-state analysis for co-related input regressor data is analyzed, so this approach leads to a new performance results without restricting the input regression data to be white.

Keywords: Error saturation nonlinearity, transient analysis, impulsive noise.

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Authors: Nasser Mohamed Ramli, Nurul Izzati Zulkifli

Abstract:

Sump can be defined as a reservoir which contains slurry; a mixture of solid and liquid or water, in it. Sump system is an unsteady process owing to the level response. Sump level shall be monitored carefully by using a good controller to avoid overflow. The current conventional controllers would not be able to solve problems with large time delay and nonlinearities, Fuzzy Logic controller is tested to prove its ability in solving the listed problems of slurry sump. Therefore, in order to justify the effectiveness and reliability of these controllers, simulation of the sump system was created by using MATLAB and the results were compared. According to the result obtained, instead of Proportional-Integral (PI) and Proportional-Integral and Derivative (PID), Fuzzy Logic controller showed the best result by offering quick response of 0.32 s for step input and 5 s for pulse generator, by producing small Integral Absolute Error (IAE) values that are 0.66 and 0.36 respectively.

Keywords: Fuzzy, sump, level, controller.

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

Abstract:

Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: Deep learning, long-short-term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting.

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