Search results for: Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF)

Authors: P. Vazan, P. Tanuska

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The paper provides the basic overview of simulation optimization. The procedure of its practical using is demonstrated on the real example in simulator Witness. The simulation optimization is presented as a good tool for solving many problems in real praxis especially in production systems. The authors also characterize their own experiences and they mention the strengths and weakness of simulation optimization.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, simulation optimization, Witness

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Authors: Govind Shay Sharma, Randhir Singh Baghel

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The stock management of raw materials and finished goods is a significant issue for industries in fulfilling customer demand. Optimization of inventory strategies is crucial to enhancing customer service, reducing lead times and costs, and meeting market demand. This paper suggests finding an approach to predict the optimum stock level by utilizing past stocks and forecasting the required quantities. In this paper, we utilized Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to determine the optimal value. The objective of this paper is to discuss the optimized ANN that can find the best solution for the inventory model. In the context of the paper, we mentioned that the k-means algorithm is employed to create homogeneous groups of items. These groups likely exhibit similar characteristics or attributes that make them suitable for being managed using uniform inventory control policies. The paper proposes a method that uses the neural fit algorithm to control the cost of inventory.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, inventory management, optimization, distributor center.

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Authors: Rafal Stegierski, Krzysztof Dmitruk

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The paper focus on robotic telepresence system build around humanoid robot operated with controller-less Wizard of Oz technique. Proposed solution gives possibility to quick start acting as a operator with short, if any, initial training.

Keywords: Robotics, Motion Capture, Wizard of Oz, Humanoid Robots, Human Robot Interaction.

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Authors: Z. Bottyán, F. Wantuch, A. Z. Gyöngyösi, Z. Tuba, K. Hadobács, P. Kardos, R. Kurunczi

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The sensitivity of UAVs to the atmospheric effects are apparent. All the same the meteorological support for the UAVs missions is often non-adequate or partly missing. In our paper we show a new complex meteorological support system for different types of UAVs pilots, specialists and decision makers, too. The mentioned system has two important parts with different forecasts approach such as the statistical and dynamical ones. The statistical prediction approach is based on a large climatological data base and the special analog method which is able to select similar weather situations from the mentioned data base to apply them during the forecasting procedure. The applied dynamic approach uses the specific WRF model runs twice a day and produces 96 hours, high resolution weather forecast for the UAV users over the Hungary. An easy to use web-based system can give important weather information over the Carpathian basin in Central-Europe. The mentioned products can be reached via internet connection.

Keywords: Aviation meteorology, statistical weather prediction, unmanned aerial systems, WRF.

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Authors: Rihab Hamdi, Amel Hadri Hamida, Fatiha Khelili, Sakina Zerouali, Ouafae Bennis

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This paper features a comparative study performance of sliding mode controller (SMC) for closed-loop voltage control of direct current to direct current (DC-DC) three-cells buck converter connected in parallel, operating in continuous conduction mode (CCM), based on pulse-width modulation (PWM) with SMC based on hysteresis modulation (HM) where an adaptive feedforward technique is adopted. On one hand, for the PWM-based SM, the approach is to incorporate a fixed-frequency PWM scheme which is effectively a variant of SM control. On the other hand, for the HM-based SM, oncoming an adaptive feedforward control that makes the hysteresis band variable in the hysteresis modulator of the SM controller in the aim to restrict the switching frequency variation in the case of any change of the line input voltage or output load variation are introduced. The results obtained under load change, input change and reference change clearly demonstrates a similar dynamic response of both proposed techniques, their effectiveness is fast and smooth tracking of the desired output voltage. The PWM-based SM technique has greatly improved the dynamic behavior with a bit advantageous compared to the HM-based SM technique, as well as provide stability in any operating conditions. Simulation studies in MATLAB/Simulink environment have been performed to verify the concept.

Keywords: Sliding mode control, pulse-width modulation, hysteresis modulation, DC-DC converter, parallel multi-cells converter, robustness.

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Authors: I. Szer, J. Szer, M. Pieńko, A. Robak, P. Jamińska-Gadomska

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Work at height, such as construction works on scaffoldings, is associated with a considerable risk. Scaffolding workers are usually exposed to changing weather conditions what can additionally increase the risk of dangerous situations. Therefore, it is very important to foresee the risk of adverse conditions to which the worker may be exposed. The data from meteorological stations may be used to asses this risk. However, the dependency between weather conditions on a scaffolding and in the vicinity of meteorological station, should be determined. The paper presents an analysis of two selected environmental parameters which have influence on the behavior of workers – air temperature and wind speed. Measurements of these parameters were made between April and November of 2016 on ten scaffoldings located in different parts of Poland. They were compared with the results taken from the meteorological stations located closest to the studied scaffolding. The results gathered from the construction sites and meteorological stations were not the same, but statistical analyses have shown that they were correlated.

Keywords: Scaffoldings, health and safety at work, temperature, wind speed.

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Authors: Krishna Kumar Singh, Praveen Jain

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Collection of storm water runoff and forcing it into the groundwater is the need of the hour to sustain the ground water table. However, the runoff entraps various types of sediments and other floating objects whose removal are essential to avoid pollution of ground water and blocking of pores of aquifer. However, it requires regular cleaning and maintenance due to problem of clogging. To evaluate the performance of filter system consisting of coarse sand (CS), gravel (G) and pebble (P) layers, a laboratory experiment was conducted in a rectangular column. The effect of variable thickness of CS, G and P layers of the filtration unit of the recharge shaft on the recharge rate and the sediment concentration of effluent water were evaluated. Medium sand (MS) of three particle sizes, viz. 0.150–0.300 mm (T1), 0.300–0.425 mm (T2) and 0.425–0.600 mm of thickness 25 cm, 30 cm and 35 cm respectively in the top layer of the filter system and having seven influent sediment concentrations of 250–3,000 mg/l were used for experimental study. The performance was evaluated in terms of recharge rates and clogging time. The results indicated that 100 % suspended solids were entrapped in the upper 10 cm layer of MS, the recharge rates declined sharply for influent concentrations of more than 1,000 mg/l. All treatments with higher thickness of MS media indicated recharge rate slightly more than that of all treatment with lower thickness of MS media respectively. The performance of storm water infiltration systems was highly dependent on the formation of a clogging layer at the filter. An empirical relationship has been derived between recharge rates, inflow sediment load, size of MS and thickness of MS with using MLR.

Keywords: Groundwater, medium sand-mixed storm water filter, inflow sediment load.

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Authors: S. Pushkar, O. Verbitsky

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Currently, green rating systems are mainly utilized for correctly sizing mechanical and electrical systems, which have short lifetime expectancies. In these systems, passive solar and bio-climatic architecture, which have long lifetime expectancies, are neglected. Urban rating systems consider buildings and services in addition to neighborhoods and public transportation as integral parts of the built environment. The main goal of this study was to develop a more consistent point allocation system for urban building standards by using six different lifetime shearing layers: Site, Structure, Skin, Services, Space, and Stuff, each reflecting distinct environmental damages. This shearing-layer concept was applied to internationally well-known rating systems: Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) for Neighborhood Development, BRE Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM) for Communities and Comprehensive Assessment System for Building Environmental Efficiency (CASBEE) for Urban Development. The results showed that LEED for Neighborhood Development and BREEAM for Communities focused on long-lifetime-expectancy building designs, whereas CASBEE for Urban Development gave equal importance to the Building and Service Layers. Moreover, although this rating system was applied using a building-scale assessment, “Urban Area + Buildings” focuses on a short-lifetime-expectancy system design, neglecting to improve the architectural design by considering bioclimatic and passive solar aspects.

Keywords: Green rating system, passive solar architecture, shearing-layer concept, urban community.

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by employing the block maxima method of the Generalized extreme value(GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the Cameroon Development Corporation (C.D.C). By considering two sets of data (Raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the return values are constant over time with the raw data while in the simulated data, the return values show an increasing trend but with an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend but with an upper bound. This clearly shows that temperatures in the tropics even-though show a sign of increasing in the future, there is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedence. The results of this paper are very vital in Agricultural and Environmental research.

Keywords: Return level, Generalized extreme value (GEV), Meteorology, Forecasting.

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Authors: Aicha Majda, Abdelhamid El Hassani

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Lung CT image segmentation is a prerequisite in lung CT image analysis. Most of the conventional methods need a post-processing to deal with the abnormal lung CT scans such as lung nodules or other lesions. The simplest similarity measure in the standard Graph Cuts Algorithm consists of directly comparing the pixel values of the two neighboring regions, which is not accurate because this kind of metrics is extremely sensitive to minor transformations such as noise or other artifacts problems. In this work, we propose an improved version of the standard graph cuts algorithm based on the Patch-Based similarity metric. The boundary penalty term in the graph cut algorithm is defined Based on Patch-Based similarity measurement instead of the simple intensity measurement in the standard method. The weights between each pixel and its neighboring pixels are Based on the obtained new term. The graph is then created using theses weights between its nodes. Finally, the segmentation is completed with the minimum cut/Max-Flow algorithm. Experimental results show that the proposed method is very accurate and efficient, and can directly provide explicit lung regions without any post-processing operations compared to the standard method.

Keywords: Graph cuts, lung CT scan, lung parenchyma segmentation, patch based similarity metric.

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Authors: Khaing Win Mar, Thinn Thu Naing

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Nowadays, precipitation prediction is required for proper planning and management of water resources. Prediction with neural network models has received increasing interest in various research and application domains. However, it is difficult to determine the best neural network architecture for prediction since it is not immediately obvious how many input or hidden nodes are used in the model. In this paper, neural network model is used as a forecasting tool. The major aim is to evaluate a suitable neural network model for monthly precipitation mapping of Myanmar. Using 3-layerd neural network models, 100 cases are tested by changing the number of input and hidden nodes from 1 to 10 nodes, respectively, and only one outputnode used. The optimum model with the suitable number of nodes is selected in accordance with the minimum forecast error. In measuring network performance using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), experimental results significantly show that 3 inputs-10 hiddens-1 output architecture model gives the best prediction result for monthly precipitation in Myanmar.

Keywords: Precipitation prediction, monthly precipitation, neural network models, Myanmar.

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Authors: Amro Issam Hamed Attia Ramadan, Marco Zappatore, Pasquale Balena, Antonella Longo

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Considering the energy crisis that is hitting Europe, it becomes increasingly necessary to change energy policies to depend less on fossil fuels and replace them with energy from renewable sources. This has triggered the urge to use clean energy, not only to satisfy energy needs and fulfill the required consumption, but also to decrease the danger of climatic changes due to harmful emissions. Many countries have already started creating energy communities based on renewable energy sources. The first step to understanding energy needs in any place is to perfectly know the consumption. In this work, we aim to estimate electricity consumption for a municipality that makes up part of a rural area located in southern Italy using forecast models that allow for the estimation of electricity consumption for the next 10 years, and we then apply the same model to the province where the municipality is located and estimate the future consumption for the same period to examine whether it is possible to start from the municipality level to reach the province level when creating energy communities.

Keywords: ARIMA, electricity consumption, forecasting models, time series.

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Authors: Idris A. Elfeituri

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This paper studies the effect of ambient conditions on the performance of a 285 MW gas turbine unit using the exergy concept. Based on the available exergy balance models developed, a computer program has been constructed to investigate the performance of the power plant under varying ambient temperature and relative humidity conditions. The variations of ambient temperature range from zero to 50 ºC and the relative humidity ranges from zero to 100%, while the unit load kept constant at 100% of the design load. The exergy destruction ratio and exergy efficiency are determined for each component and for the entire plant. The results show a moderate increase in the total exergy destruction ratio of the plant from 62.05% to 65.20%, while the overall exergy efficiency decrease from 38.2% to 34.8% as the ambient temperature increases from zero to 50 ºC at all relative humidity values. Furthermore, an increase of 1 ºC in ambient temperature leads to 0.063% increase in the total exergy destruction ratio and 0.07% decrease in the overall exergy efficiency. The relative humidity has a remarkable influence at higher ambient temperature values on the exergy destruction ratio of combustion chamber and on exergy loss ratio of the exhaust gas but almost no effect on the total exergy destruction ratio and overall exergy efficiency. At 50 ºC ambient temperature, the exergy destruction ratio of the combustion chamber increases from 30% to 52% while the exergy loss ratio of the exhaust gas decreases from 28% to 8% as the relative humidity increases from zero to 100%. In addition, exergy analysis reveals that the combustion chamber and exhaust gas are the main source of irreversibility in the gas turbine unit. It is also identified that the exergy efficiency and exergy destruction ratio are considerably dependent on the variations in the ambient air temperature and relative humidity. Therefore, the incorporation of the existing gas turbine plant with inlet air cooling and humidifier technologies should be considered seriously.

Keywords: Destruction, exergy, gas turbine, irreversibility, performance.

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Authors: Safak Isik, Ozalp Vayvay

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Strategic partnerships with suppliers play a vital role for the long-term value-based supply chain. This strategic collaboration keeps still being one of the top priority of many business organizations in order to create more additional value; benefiting mainly from supplier’s specialization, capacity and innovative power, securing supply and better managing costs and quality. However, many organizations encounter difficulties in initiating, developing and managing those partnerships and many attempts result in failures. One of the reasons for such failure is the incompatibility of members of this partnership or in other words wrong supplier selection which emphasize the significance of the selection process since it is the beginning stage. An effective selection process of strategic suppliers is critical to the success of the partnership. Although there are several research studies to select the suppliers in literature, only a few of them is related to strategic supplier selection for long-term partnership. The purpose of this study is to propose a conceptual model for the selection of strategic partnership suppliers. A two-stage approach has been used in proposed model incorporating first segmentation and second selection. In the first stage; considering the fact that not all suppliers are strategically equal and instead of a long list of potential suppliers, Kraljic’s purchasing portfolio matrix can be used for segmentation. This supplier segmentation is the process of categorizing suppliers based on a defined set of criteria in order to identify types of suppliers and determine potential suppliers for strategic partnership. In the second stage, from a pool of potential suppliers defined at first phase, a comprehensive evaluation and selection can be performed to finally define strategic suppliers considering various tangible and intangible criteria. Since a long-term relationship with strategic suppliers is anticipated, criteria should consider both current and future status of the supplier. Based on an extensive literature review; strategical, operational and organizational criteria have been determined and elaborated. The result of the selection can also be used to determine suppliers who are not ready for a partnership but to be developed for strategic partnership. Since the model is based on multiple criteria for both stages, it provides a framework for further utilization of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques. The model may also be applied to a wide range of industries and involve managerial features in business organizations.

Keywords: Kraljic’s matrix, purchasing portfolio, strategic supplier selection, supplier collaboration, supplier partnership, supplier segmentation.

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Authors: P. Novosad, L. Osuska, M. Tazky, T. Tazky

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Current trends in the building industry are oriented towards the reduction of maintenance costs and the ecological benefits of buildings or building materials. Surface treatment of building materials with photocatalytic active titanium dioxide added into concrete can offer a good solution in this context. Architectural concrete has one disadvantage – dust and fouling keep settling on its surface, diminishing its aesthetic value and increasing maintenance e costs. Concrete surface – silicate material with open porosity – fulfils the conditions of effective photocatalysis, in particular, the self-cleaning properties of surfaces. This modern material is advantageous in particular for direct finishing and architectural concrete applications. If photoactive titanium dioxide is part of the top layers of road concrete on busy roads and the facades of the buildings surrounding these roads, exhaust fumes can be degraded with the aid of sunshine; hence, environmental load will decrease. It is clear that options for removing pollutants like nitrogen oxides (NOx) must be found. Not only do these gases present a health risk, they also cause the degradation of the surfaces of concrete structures. The photocatalytic properties of titanium dioxide can in the long term contribute to the enhanced appearance of surface layers and eliminate harmful pollutants dispersed in the air, and facilitate the conversion of pollutants into less toxic forms (e.g., NOx to HNO₃). This paper describes verification of the photocatalytic properties of titanium dioxide and presents the results of mechanical and physical tests on samples of architectural lightweight self-compacting concretes (LWSCC). The very essence of the use of LWSCC is their rheological ability to seep into otherwise extremely hard accessible or inaccessible construction areas, or sections thereof where concrete compacting will be a problem, or where vibration is completely excluded. They are also able to create a solid monolithic element with a large variety of shapes; the concrete will at the same meet the requirements of both chemical aggression and the influences of the surrounding environment. Due to their viscosity, LWSCCs are able to imprint the formwork elements into their structure and thus create high quality lightweight architectural concretes.

Keywords: Photocatalytic concretes, titanium dioxide, architectural concretes, LWSCC.

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Authors: Siddhant Sahu, P. James Daniel Paul

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Technical analysis comprised by various technical indicators is a holistic way of representing price movement of stocks in the market. Various forms of indicators have evolved from the primitive ones in the past decades. There have been many attempts to introduce volume as a major determinant to determine strong patterns in market forecasting. The law of demand defines the relationship between the volume and price. Most of the traders are familiar with the volume game. Including the time dimension to the law of demand provides a different visualization to the theory. While attempting the same, it was found that there are different thresholds in the market for different companies. These thresholds have a significant influence on the price. This article is an attempt in determining the thresholds for companies using the three dimensional graphs for optimizing the portfolios. It also emphasizes on the magnitude of importance of volumes as a key factor for determining of predicting strong price movements, bullish and bearish markets. It uses a comprehensive data set of major companies which form a major chunk of the Indian automotive sector and are thus used as an illustration.

Keywords: Technical Analysis, Expert System, Law of demand, Stocks, Portfolio Analysis, Indian Automotive Sector.

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Authors: Keneilwe Maremi, Marlien Herselman, Adele Botha

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The main purpose and focus of this paper are to determine the Interoperability Maturity Models to consider when using School Management Systems (SMS). The importance of this is to inform and help schools with knowing which Interoperability Maturity Model is best suited for their SMS. To address the purpose, this paper will apply a scoping review to ensure that all aspects are provided. The scoping review will include papers written from 2012-2019 and a comparison of the different types of Interoperability Maturity Models will be discussed in detail, which includes the background information, the levels of interoperability, and area for consideration in each Maturity Model. The literature was obtained from the following databases: IEEE Xplore and Scopus, the following search engines were used: Harzings, and Google Scholar. The topic of the paper was used as a search term for the literature and the term ‘Interoperability Maturity Models’ was used as a keyword. The data were analyzed in terms of the definition of Interoperability, Interoperability Maturity Models, and levels of interoperability. The results provide a table that shows the focus area of concern for each Maturity Model (based on the scoping review where only 24 papers were found to be best suited for the paper out of 740 publications initially identified in the field). This resulted in the most discussed Interoperability Maturity Model for consideration (Information Systems Interoperability Maturity Model (ISIMM) and Organizational Interoperability Maturity Model for C2 (OIM)).

Keywords: Interoperability, Interoperability Maturity Model, School Management System, scoping review.

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Authors: Adel Aloraini

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Financial forecasting using machine learning techniques has received great efforts in the last decide . In this ongoing work, we show how machine learning of graphical models will be able to infer a visualized causal interactions between different banks in the Saudi equities market. One important discovery from such learned causal graphs is how companies influence each other and to what extend. In this work, a set of graphical models named Gaussian graphical models with developed ensemble penalized feature selection methods that combine ; filtering method, wrapper method and a regularizer will be shown. A comparison between these different developed ensemble combinations will also be shown. The best ensemble method will be used to infer the causal relationships between banks in Saudi equities market.

Keywords: Causal interactions , banks, feature selection, regularizere,

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Authors: Petra Wächter

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A comprehensive discussion of feasible strategies for sustainable energy supply is urgently needed to achieve a turnaround of the current energy situation. The necessary fundamentals required for the development of a long term energy vision are lacking to a great extent due to the absence of reasonable long term scenarios that fulfill the requirements of climate protection and sustainable energy use. The contribution of the study is based on a search for sustainable energy paths in the long run for Austria. The analysis makes use of secondary data predominantly. The measures developed to avoid CO2 emissions and other ecological risk factors vary to a great extent among all economic sectors. This is shown by the calculation of CO2 cost of abatement curves. In this study it is demonstrated that the most effective technical measures with the lowest CO2 abatement costs yield solutions to the current energy problems. Various scenarios are presented concerning the question how the technological and environmental options for a sustainable energy system for Austria could look like in the long run. It is shown how sustainable energy can be supplied even with today-s technological knowledge and options available. The scenarios developed include an evaluation of the economic costs and ecological impacts. The results are not only applicable to Austria but demonstrate feasible and cost efficient ways towards a sustainable future.

Keywords: Cost of CO2 Abatement, Energy Economics, Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy Technologies, Sustainable Energy and Development.

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Authors: Yen-Yiu Liu, Richard J. Haynes

Abstract:

The effects of irrigation with dairy factory wastewater on soil properties were investigated at two sites that had received irrigation for > 60 years. Two adjoining paired sites that had never received DFE were also sampled as well as another seven fields from a wider area around the factory. In comparison with paired sites that had not received effluent, long-term wastewater irrigation resulted in an increase in pH, EC, extractable P, exchangeable Na and K and ESP. These changes were related to the use of phosphoric acid, NaOH and KOH as cleaning agents in the factory. Soil organic C content was unaffected by DFE irrigation but the size (microbial biomass C and N) and activity (basal respiration) of the soil microbial community were increased. These increases were attributed to regular inputs of soluble C (e.g. lactose) present as milk residues in the wastewater. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the soils data from all 11sites confirmed that the main effects of DFE irrigation were an increase in exchangeable Na, extractable P and microbial biomass C, an accumulation of soluble salts and a liming effect. PCA analysis of soil bacterial community structure, using PCR-DGGE of 16S rDNA fragments, generally separated individual sites from one another but did not group them according to irrigation history. Thus, whilst the size and activity of the soil microbial community were increased, the structure and diversity of the bacterial community remained unaffected.

Keywords: Dairy factory, wastewater; effluent, irrigation, soil quality.

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Authors: Yen-Yiu Liu, Richard J. Haynes

Abstract:

The effects of irrigation with dairy factory wastewater on soil properties were investigated at two sites that had received irrigation for > 60 years. Two adjoining paired sites that had never received DFE were also sampled as well as another seven fields from a wider area around the factory. In comparison with paired sites that had not received effluent, long-term wastewater irrigation resulted in an increase in pH, EC, extractable P, exchangeable Na and K and ESP. These changes were related to the use of phosphoric acid, NaOH and KOH as cleaning agents in the factory. Soil organic C content was unaffected by DFE irrigation but the size (microbial biomass C and N) and activity (basal respiration) of the soil microbial community were increased. These increases were attributed to regular inputs of soluble C (e.g. lactose) present as milk residues in the wastewater. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the soils data from all 11sites confirmed that the main effects of DFE irrigation were an increase in exchangeable Na, extractable P and microbial biomass C, an accumulation of soluble salts and a liming effect. PCA analysis of soil bacterial community structure, using PCR-DGGE of 16S rDNA fragments, generally separated individual sites from one another but did not group them according to irrigation history. Thus, whilst the size and activity of the soil microbial community were increased, the structure and diversity of the bacterial community remained unaffected.

Keywords: Dairy factory, wastewater; effluent, irrigation, soil quality.

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Authors: SreehariRao Patri, K. S. R. KrishnaPrasad

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An on chip low drop out voltage regulator that employs elegant compensation scheme is presented in this paper. The novelty in this design is that the device parasitic capacitances are exploited for compensation at different loads. The proposed LDO is designed to provide a constant voltage of 1.2V and is implemented in UMC 180 nano meter CMOS technology. The voltage regulator presented improves stability even at lighter loads and enhances line and load regulation.

Keywords: Analog, LDO, SOC.

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Authors: Anna Lower, Michal Lower, Robert Masztalski, Agnieszka Szumilas

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The paper presents a method in which the expert knowledge is applied to fuzzy inference model. Even a less experienced person could benefit from the use of such a system, e.g. urban planners, officials. The analysis result is obtained in a very short time, so a large number of the proposed locations can also be verified in a short time. The proposed method is intended for testing of locations of car parks in a city. The paper shows selected examples of locations of the P&R facilities in cities planning to introduce the P&R. The analyses of existing objects are also shown in the paper and they are confronted with the opinions of the system users, with particular emphasis on unpopular locations. The results of the analyses are compared to expert analysis of the P&R facilities location that was outsourced by the city and the opinions about existing facilities users that were expressed on social networking sites. The obtained results are consistent with actual users’ feedback. The proposed method proves to be good, but does not require the involvement of a large experts team and large financial contributions for complicated research. The method also provides an opportunity to show the alternative location of P&R facilities. Although the results of the method are approximate, they are not worse than results of analysis of employed experts. The advantage of this method is ease of use, which simplifies the professional expert analysis. The ability of analyzing a large number of alternative locations gives a broader view on the problem. It is valuable that the arduous analysis of the team of people can be replaced by the model's calculation. According to the authors, the proposed method is also suitable for implementation on a GIS platform.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic inference, P&R facilities, P&R location.

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Authors: Zuhrotun Ulya, Muchammad Syamsulhadi, Debree Septiawan

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Patients with bipolar disorder are three times more likely to suffer cardiovascular disorders than the general population, which will influence their level of morbidity and rate of mortality. Bipolar disorder also affects the pulmonary system. The choice of long term-monotherapy and other combinative therapies have clinical impacts on patients. This study investigates the case of a woman who has been suffering from bipolar disorder for 16 years, and who has a history of Steven Johnson Syndrome. At present she is suffering also from cardiovascular and pulmonary disorder. An analysis of the results of this study suggests that there is a relationship between cardiovascular disorder, drug therapies, Steven Johnson Syndrome and mood stabilizer obtained from the PubMed, Cochrane, Medline, and ProQuest (publications between 2005 and 2015). Combination therapy with mood stabilizer is recommended for patients who do not have side effect histories from these drugs. The replacement drugs and combinations may be applied, especially for those with bipolar disorders, and the combination between atypical antipsychotic groups and mood stabilizers is often made. Clinicians, however, should be careful with the patients’ physical and metabolic changes, especially those who have experienced long-term therapy and who showed a history of Steven Johnson Syndrome (for which clinicians probably prescribed one type of medicine).

Keywords: Cardio-pulmonary disease, bipolar disorder, Steven Johnson Syndrome, therapy.

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Authors: Y. Laaroussi, Z. Guennoun, A. Amar

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Modeling and forecasting dynamics of rainfall occurrences constitute one of the major topics, which have been largely treated by statisticians, hydrologists, climatologists and many other groups of scientists. In the same issue, we propose, in the present paper, a new hybrid method, which combines Extreme Values and fractal theories. We illustrate the use of our methodology for transformed Emberger Index series, constructed basing on data recorded in Oujda (Morocco). The index is treated at first by Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach, to identify excess observations over an optimal threshold u. In the second step, we consider the resulting excess as a fractal object included in one dimensional space of time. We identify fractal dimension by the box counting. We discuss the prospect descriptions of rainfall data sets under Generalized Pareto Distribution, assured by Extreme Values Theory (EVT). We show that, despite of the appropriateness of return periods given by POT approach, the introduction of fractal dimension provides accurate interpretation results, which can ameliorate apprehension of rainfall occurrences.

Keywords: Extreme values theory, Fractals dimensions, Peaks Over Threshold, Rainfall occurrences.

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Authors: M. A. Fouad, M. A. Badr, Z. S. Abd El-Rehim, Taher Halawa, Mahmoud Bayoumi, M. M. Ibrahim

Abstract:

Renewable energy-based micro-grids are presently attracting significant consideration. The smart grid system is presently considered a reliable solution for the expected deficiency in the power required from future power systems. The purpose of this study is to determine the optimal components sizes of a micro-grid, investigating technical and economic performance with the environmental impacts. The micro grid load is divided into two small factories with electricity, both on-grid and off-grid modes are considered. The micro-grid includes photovoltaic cells, back-up diesel generator wind turbines, and battery bank. The estimated load pattern is 76 kW peak. The system is modeled and simulated by MATLAB/Simulink tool to identify the technical issues based on renewable power generation units. To evaluate system economy, two criteria are used: the net present cost and the cost of generated electricity. The most feasible system components for the selected application are obtained, based on required parameters, using HOMER simulation package. The results showed that a Wind/Photovoltaic (W/PV) on-grid system is more economical than a Wind/Photovoltaic/Diesel/Battery (W/PV/D/B) off-grid system as the cost of generated electricity (COE) is 0.266 $/kWh and 0.316 $/kWh, respectively. Considering the cost of carbon dioxide emissions, the off-grid will be competitive to the on-grid system as COE is found to be (0.256 $/kWh, 0.266 $/kWh), for on and off grid systems.

Keywords: Optimum energy systems, renewable energy sources, smart grid, micro-grid system, on- grid system, off-grid system, modeling and simulation, economical evaluation, net present value, cost of energy, environmental impacts.

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Authors: Pisut Painmanakul, Kotchakorn Kongkangwarn, Nattawin Chawaloesphonsiya

Abstract:

The coalescer process is one of the methods for oily water treatment by increasing the oil droplet size in order to enhance the separating velocity and thus effective separation. However, the presence of surfactants in an oily emulsion can limit the obtained mechanisms due to the small oil size related with stabilized emulsion. In this regard, the purpose of this research is to improve the efficiency of the coalescer process for treating the stabilized emulsion. The effects of bed types, bed height, liquid flow rate and stage coalescer (step-bed) on the treatment efficiencies in term of COD values were studied. Note that the treatment efficiency obtained experimentally was estimated by using the COD values and oil droplet size distribution. The study has shown that the plastic media has more effective to attach with oil particles than the stainless one due to their hydrophobic properties. Furthermore, the suitable bed height (3.5 cm) and step bed (3.5 cm with 2 steps) were necessary in order to well obtain the coalescer performance. The application of step bed coalescer process in reactor has provided the higher treatment efficiencies in term of COD removal than those obtained with classical process. The proposed model for predicting the area under curve and thus treatment efficiency, based on the single collector efficiency (ηT) and the attachment efficiency (α), provides relatively a good coincidence between the experimental and predicted values of treatment efficiencies in this study.

Keywords: Stage coalescer, stabilized emulsions, treatment efficiency, model prediction.

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Authors: Allagui Hatem, Ghodbane Fathi

Abstract:

The primary objective of this paper is to study the thermal effects of the electric arc on the breaker apparatus contacts for forecasting and improving the contact durability. We will propose a model which takes account of the main influence factors on the erosion contacts. This phenomenon is very complicated because the amount of ejected metal is not necessarily constituted by the whole melted metal bath but this depends on the balance of forces on the contact surface. Consequently, to calculate the metal ejection coefficient, we propose a method which consists in comparing the experimental results with the calculated ones. The proposed model estimates the mass lost by vaporization, by droplets ejection and by the extraction mechanism of liquid or solid metal. In the one-dimensional geometry, to calculate of the contact heating, we used Green’s function which expresses the point source and allows the transition to the surface source. However, for the two- dimensional model we used explicit and implicit numerical methods. The results are similar to those found by Wilson’s experiments.

Keywords: Electric arc, thermal effect, erosion, contact, durability.

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Authors: A. Kospach, A. Mladek, M. Waltenberger, F. Schilling

Abstract:

In this work, a coupled 1D/3D simulation approach for thermal protection and optimization of a trailer refrigeration power pack unit was developed. With the developed 1D/3D simulation approach thermal critical scenarios, such as summer, high-load scenarios are investigated. The 1D thermal model was built up consisting of the thermal network, which includes different point masses and associated heat transfers, the coolant and oil circuits, as well as the fan unit. The 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to model the air flow through the power pack unit considering convective heat transfer effects. In the 1D thermal model the temperatures of the individual point masses were calculated, which served as input variables for the 3D CFD model. For the calculation of the point mass temperatures in the 1D thermal model, the convective heat transfer rates from the 3D CFD model were required as input variables. These two variables (point mass temperatures and convective heat transfer rates) were the main couple variables for the coupled 1D/3D simulation model. The coupled 1D/3D model was validated with measurements under normal operating conditions. Coupled simulations for summer high-load case were than performed and compared with a reference case under normal operation conditions. Hot temperature regions and components could be identified. Due to the detailed information about the flow field, temperatures and heat fluxes, it was possible to directly derive improvement suggestions for the cooling design of the transport refrigeration power pack unit.

Keywords: Coupled thermal simulation, thermal analysis, transport refrigeration unit, 3D computational fluid dynamics, 1D thermal modelling, thermal management systems.

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Authors: E.Assareh, M.A. Behrang, R. Assareh, N. Hedayat

Abstract:

An integrated Artificial Neural Network- Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is presented for analyzing global electricity consumption. To aim this purpose, following steps are done: STEP 1: in the first step, PSO is applied in order to determine world-s oil, natural gas, coal and primary energy demand equations based on socio-economic indicators. World-s population, Gross domestic product (GDP), oil trade movement and natural gas trade movement are used as socio-economic indicators in this study. For each socio-economic indicator, a feed-forward back propagation artificial neural network is trained and projected for future time domain. STEP 2: in the second step, global electricity consumption is projected based on the oil, natural gas, coal and primary energy consumption using PSO. global electricity consumption is forecasted up to year 2040.

Keywords: Particle Swarm Optimization, Artificial NeuralNetworks, Fossil Fuels, Electricity, Forecasting.

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