Search results for: stock market prediction

Authors: Susana G. Azevedo, Helena Carvalho, V. Cruz –Machado

Abstract:

The supply chains (SCs) have to appeal to new management paradigms to improve their ability to respond rapidly and cost effectively to unpredictable changes in markets and increasing levels of environmental turbulence, both in terms of volume and variety. In this highly demanded context, the Agile paradigm provides the capabilities to SC quickly adapt to changes in the market requirements. The purpose of this paper is to suggest an Agile Index to assess the agility of the automotive companies and corresponding SCs. The proposed integrated assessment model incorporates Agile practices weighted according to their importance to the automotive SC competitiveness and obtained from the Delphi technique.

Keywords: Agile, Supply chain management, Index, Delphitechnique.

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Authors: Marco Raciti Castelli, Paolo Cioppa, Ernesto Benini

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This paper presents a CFD analysis of the flow field around a thin flat plate of infinite span inclined at 90° to a fluid stream of infinite extent. Numerical predictions have been compared to experimental measurements, in order to assess the potential of the finite volume code of determining the aerodynamic forces acting on a bluff body invested by a fluid stream of infinite extent. Several turbulence models and spatial node distributions have been tested. Flow field characteristics in the neighborhood of the flat plate have been investigated, allowing the development of a preliminary procedure to be used as guidance in selecting the appropriate grid configuration and the corresponding turbulence model for the prediction of the flow field over a two-dimensional vertical flat plate.

Keywords: CFD, vertical flat plate, aerodynamic force

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Authors: Anton Golubkov, Gleb Ermachkov, Aleksandr Smerdin, Oleg Sidorov, Victor Philippov

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Current collection quality is one of the limiting factors when increasing trains movement speed in the rail sector. With the movement speed growth, the impact forces on the current collector from the rolling stock and the aerodynamic influence increase, which leads to the spread in the contact pressure values, separation of the current collector head from the contact wire, contact arcing and excessive wear of the contact elements. The upcoming trend in resolving this issue is the use of the automatic control systems providing stabilization of the contact pressure value. The present paper considers the features of the contemporary automatic control systems of the current collector’s pressure; their major disadvantages have been stated. A scheme of current collector pressure automatic control has been proposed, distinguished by a proactive influence on undesirable effects. A mathematical model of contact strips wearing has been presented, obtained in accordance with the provisions of the central composition rotatable design program. The analysis of the obtained dependencies has been carried out. The procedures for determining the optimal current collector pressure on the contact wire and the pressure control principle in the pneumatic drive have been described.

Keywords: High-speed running, current collector, contact strip, mathematical model, contact pressure, program control, wear, life cycle.

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Authors: M. S. Bani, Z. A. Rashid, K. H. K. Hamid, M. E. Harbawi, A.B.Alias, M. J. Aris

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Most Decision Support Systems (DSS) for waste management (WM) constructed are not widely marketed and lack practical applications. This is due to the number of variables and complexity of the mathematical models which include the assumptions and constraints required in decision making. The approach made by many researchers in DSS modelling is to isolate a few key factors that have a significant influence to the DSS. This segmented approach does not provide a thorough understanding of the complex relationships of the many elements involved. The various elements in constructing the DSS must be integrated and optimized in order to produce a viable model that is marketable and has practical application. The DSS model used in assisting decision makers should be integrated with GIS, able to give robust prediction despite the inherent uncertainties of waste generation and the plethora of waste characteristics, and gives optimal allocation of waste stream for recycling, incineration, landfill and composting.

Keywords: Review, decision support system, GIS and waste management.

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Authors: A.F. Salarashayeri, M. Siosemarde

Abstract:

Hydraulic conductivity is one parameter important for predicting the movement of water and contaminants dissolved in the water through the soil. The hydraulic conductivity is measured on soil samples in the lab and sometimes tests carried out in the field. The hydraulic conductivity has been related to soil particle diameter by a number of investigators. In this study, 25 set of soil samples with sand texture. The results show approximately success in predicting hydraulic conductivity from particle diameters data. The following relationship obtained from multiple linear regressions on data (R2 = 0.52): Where d10, d50 and d60, are the soil particle diameter (mm) that 10%, 50% and 60% of all soil particles are finer (smaller) by weight and Ks, saturated hydraulic conductivity is expressed in m/day. The results of regression analysis showed that d10 play a more significant role with respect to Ks, saturated hydraulic conductivity (m/day), and has been named as the effective parameter in Ks calculation.

Keywords: hydraulic conductivity, particle diameter, particle-size distribution and soil

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Authors: Saeid Norouzi, Ali Shams, Hassan Farhangi, Alireza Darvish

Abstract:

Hot tear cracking and residual stress are two different consequences of thermal stress both of which can be considered as casting problem. The purpose of the present study is simulation of the effect of casting shape characteristic on hot tearing and residual stress. This study shows that the temperature range for simulation of hot tearing and residual stress are different. In this study, in order to study the development of thermal stress and to predict the hot tearing and residual stress of shaped casting, MAGMASOFT simulation program was used. The strategy of this research was the prediction of hot tear location using pinpointing hot spot and thermal stress concentration zones. The results shows that existing of stress concentration zone increases the hot tearing probability and consequently reduces the amount of remaining residual stress in casting parts.

Keywords: Hot tearing, residual stress, simulation, investment casting.

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Authors: Abhimanyu Pati, Krishna Kumar Veluri

Abstract:

The paper intends to bring out a real life experience encountered during actual implementation of a large scale Tier-1 Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system in a multi-location, discrete manufacturing organization in India, involved in manufacturing of auto components and aggregates. The business complexities, prior to the implementation of ERP, include multi-product with hierarchical product structures, geographically distributed multiple plant locations with disparate business practices, lack of inter-plant broadband connectivity, existence of disparate legacy applications for different business functions, and non-standardized codifications of products, machines, employees, and accounts apart from others. On the other hand, the manufacturing environment consisted of processes like Assemble-to-Order (ATO), Make-to-Stock (MTS), and Engineer-to-Order (ETO) with a mix of discrete and process operations. The paper has highlighted various business plan areas and concerns, prior to the implementation, with specific focus on strategic issues and objectives. Subsequently, it has dealt with the complete process of ERP implementation, starting from strategic planning, project planning, resource mobilization, and finally, the program execution. The step-by-step process provides a very good learning opportunity about the implementation methodology. At the end, various organizational challenges and lessons emerged, which will act as guidelines and checklist for organizations to successfully align and implement ERP and achieve their business objectives.

Keywords: ERP, ATO, MTS, ETO, discrete manufacturing, strategic planning.

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Authors: Sandhya Dixit, Tilak Raj

Abstract:

Flexible Manufacturing System (FMS) is seen as an option for industries which want to boost productivity as well as respond quickly to an increasingly changing marketplace. FMS produces in mid variety, mid volume range and can meet the changing market demands very quickly. But still the impact of adoption of FMS on the productivity of any industry is not very clear. In this paper an attempt has been made to model the various factors affecting the productivity of FMS installation using Total Interpretive Structural Modelling (TISM) Technique.

Keywords: Flexible manufacturing system, productivity, total interpretive structural modelling.

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Authors: Heng Ma

Abstract:

Aiming at the problems existing in low-carbon technology of Chinese manufacturing industries, such as irrational energy structure, lack of technological innovation, financial constraints, this paper puts forward the suggestion that the leading role of the government is combined with the roles of enterprises and market. That is, through increasing the governmental funding the adjustment of the industrial structures and enhancement of the legal supervision are supported. Technological innovation is accelerated by the enterprises, and the carbon trading will be promoted so as to trigger the low-carbon revolution in Chinese manufacturing field.

Keywords: Low-carbon economy, traditional manufacturing industry, industrial structure, carbon emission reduction.

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Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

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The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: Airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty.

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Authors: Eleftherios Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with triangular membership function. We examine the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period. This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.

Keywords: ANFIS, discrete choice models, financial crisis, USeconomy

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Authors: Tamara Kelly

Abstract:

The past decade has witnessed a good opportunities for city development schemes in UK. The government encouraged restoration of city centers to comprise mixed use developments with high density residential apartments. Investments in regeneration areas were doing well according to the analyses of Property Databank (IPD). However, more recent analysis by IPD has shown that since 2007, property in regeneration areas has been more vulnerable to the market downturn than other types of investment property. The early stages of a property market downturn may be felt most in regeneration where funding, investor confidence and occupier demand would dissipate because the sector was considered more marginal or risky when development costs rise. Moreover, the Bank of England survey shows that lenders have sequentially tightened the availability of credit for commercial real estate since mid-2007. A sharp reduction in the willingness of banks to lend on commercial property was recorded. The credit crunch has already affected commercial property but its impact has been particularly severe in certain kinds of properties where residential developments are extremely difficult, in particular city centre apartments and buy-to-let markets. Commercial property – retail, industrial leisure and mixed use were also pressed, in Birmingham; tens of mixed use plots were built to replace old factories in the heart of the city. The purpose of these developments was to enable young professionals to work and live in same place. Thousands of people lost their jobs during the recession, moreover lending was more difficult and the future of many developments is unknown. The recession casts its shadow upon the society due to cuts in public spending by government, Inflation, rising tuition fees and high rise in unemployment generated anger and hatred was spreading among youth causing vandalism and riots in many cities. Recent riots targeted many mixed used development in the UK where banks, shops, restaurants and big stores were robbed and set into fire leaving residents with horror and shock. This paper examines the impact of the recession and riots on mixed use development in UK.

Keywords: Diversity, mixed use development, outdoor comfort, public realm, safe places, safety by design.

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Authors: A. Medjnoun, R. Bahar

Abstract:

The disorders caused by the shrinking-swelling phenomenon are prevalent in arid and semi-arid in the presence of swelling clay. This soil has the characteristic of changing state under the effect of water solicitation (wetting and drying). A set of geotechnical parameters is necessary for the characterization of this soil type, such as state parameters, physical and chemical parameters and mechanical parameters. Some of these tests are very long and some are very expensive, hence the use or methods of predictions. The complexity of this phenomenon and the difficulty of its characterization have prompted researchers to use several identification parameters in the prediction of swelling potential. This document is an analytical and statistical study of geotechnical parameters affecting the potential of swelling clays. This work is performing on a database obtained from investigations swelling Algerian soil. The obtained observations have helped us to understand the soil swelling structure and its behavior.

Keywords: Analysis, estimated model, parameter identification, Swelling of clay.

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Authors: Y. Galerkin, K. Soldatova, A. Drozdov

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The 6th version of Universal modeling method for centrifugal compressor stage calculation is described. Identification of the new mathematical model was made. As a result of identification the uniform set of empirical coefficients is received. The efficiency definition error is 0,86 % at a design point. The efficiency definition error at five flow rate points (except a point of the maximum flow rate) is 1,22 %. Several variants of the stage with 3D impellers designed by 6th version program and quasi threedimensional calculation programs were compared by their gas dynamic performances CFD (NUMECA FINE TURBO). Performance comparison demonstrated general principles of design validity and leads to some design recommendations.

Keywords: Compressor design, loss model, performance prediction, test data, model stages, flow rate coefficient, work coefficient.

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Authors: Woo-Young Jung, Minho Kwon

Abstract:

Seismic design criteria based on performance of structures have recently been adopted by practicing engineers in response to destructive earthquakes. A simple but efficient structural-analysis tool capable of predicting both the strength and ductility is needed to analyze reinforced concrete (RC) structures under such event. A three-dimensional lattice model is developed in this study to analyze torsions in high-strength RC members. Optimization techniques for determining optimal variables in each lattice model are introduced. Pure torsion tests of RC members are performed to validate the proposed model. Correlation studies between the numerical and experimental results confirm that the proposed model is well capable of representing salient features of the experimental results.

Keywords: Torsion, non-linear analysis, three-dimensional lattice, high-strength concrete.

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Authors: J. H. Kim, J. H. Kwon, J. S. Park, K. J. Lim

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This paper has been investigated a technique that predicts the performance of a bar-type unimorph piezoelectric vibration actuator depending on the frequency. This paper has been proposed an equivalent circuit that can be easily analyzed for the bar-type unimorph piezoelectric vibration actuator. In the dynamic analysis, rigidity and resonance frequency, which are important mechanical elements, were derived using the basic beam theory. In the equivalent circuit analysis, the displacement and bandwidth of the piezoelectric vibration actuator depending on the frequency were predicted. Also, for the reliability of the derived equations, the predicted performance depending on the shape change was compared with the result of a finite element analysis program.

Keywords: Actuator, performance, piezoelectric, unimorph.Actuator, performance, piezoelectric, unimorph.

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Authors: Chein-Shung Hwang, Ruei-Siang Fong

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User-based Collaborative filtering (CF), one of the most prevailing and efficient recommendation techniques, provides personalized recommendations to users based on the opinions of other users. Although the CF technique has been successfully applied in various applications, it suffers from serious sparsity problems. The cloud-model approach addresses the sparsity problems by constructing the user-s global preference represented by a cloud eigenvector. The user-based CF approach works well with dense datasets while the cloud-model CF approach has a greater performance when the dataset is sparse. In this paper, we present a hybrid approach that integrates the predictions from both the user-based CF and the cloud-model CF approaches. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid approach can ameliorate the sparsity problem and provide an improved prediction quality.

Keywords: Cloud model, Collaborative filtering, Hybridrecommender system

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Authors: Shun-Qi Zhang, Shu-Yang Zhang, Min Chen

Abstract:

Applying strong electric field on piezoelectric actuators, on one hand very significant electroelastic material nonlinear effects will occur, on the other hand piezo plates and shells may undergo large displacements and rotations. In order to give a precise prediction of piezolaminated smart structures under large electric field, this paper develops a finite element (FE) model accounting for both electroelastic material nonlinearity and geometric nonlinearity with large rotations based on the first order shear deformation (FSOD) hypothesis. The proposed FE model is applied to analyze a piezolaminated semicircular shell structure.

Keywords: Smart structures, piezolamintes, material nonlinearity, geometric nonlinearity, strong electric field.

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Authors: Vedulla Manoj Kumar, B. Nageswara Rao, Sk. Farooq

Abstract:

Heat sinks are being considered in many advanced heat transfer applications including automotive and stationary fuel cells as well as cooling of electronic devices. However, there are innumerable fundamental issues in the fields of heat transfer and fluid mechanics perspectives which remains unresolved. The present review emphasizes on the progress of research in the field of pin fin heat sinks, while understanding the fluid dynamics and heat transfer characteristics with a detailed and sophisticated prediction of the temperature distribution, high heat flux removal and by minimizing thermal resistance. Lot of research work carried out across the globe to address this challenge and trying to come up with an economically viable and user friendly solution. The high activities for future pin fin heat sinks research and development to meet the current issue is recorded in this article.

Keywords: Heat sinks, heat transfer, heat flux, thermal resistance, electronic devices.

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Authors: Dariush Jafari, Seyed Ali Jafari

Abstract:

The recommended limit for cadmium concentration in potable water is less than 0.005 mg/L. A continuous biosorption process using indigenous red seaweed, Gracilaria corticata, was performed to remove cadmium from the potable water. The process was conducted under fixed conditions and the breakthrough curves were achieved for three consecutive sorption-desorption cycles. A modeling based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was employed to fit the experimental breakthrough data. In addition, a simplified semi empirical model, Thomas, was employed for this purpose. It was found that ANN well described the experimental data (R2>0.99) while the Thomas prediction were a bit less successful with R2>0.97. The adjusted design parameters using the nonlinear form of Thomas model was in a good agreement with the experimentally obtained ones. The results approve the capability of ANN to predict the cadmium concentration in potable water.

Keywords: ANN, biosorption, cadmium, packed-bed, potable water.

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Authors: Vinko Lešić, Mario Vašak, Anita Martinčević, Marko Gulin, Antonio Starčić, Hrvoje Novak

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With 40% of total world energy consumption, building systems are developing into technically complex large energy consumers suitable for application of sophisticated power management approaches to largely increase the energy efficiency and even make them active energy market participants. Centralized control system of building heating and cooling managed by economically-optimal model predictive control shows promising results with estimated 30% of energy efficiency increase. The research is focused on implementation of such a method on a case study performed on two floors of our faculty building with corresponding sensors wireless data acquisition, remote heating/cooling units and central climate controller. Building walls are mathematically modeled with corresponding material types, surface shapes and sizes. Models are then exploited to predict thermal characteristics and changes in different building zones. Exterior influences such as environmental conditions and weather forecast, people behavior and comfort demands are all taken into account for deriving price-optimal climate control. Finally, a DC microgrid with photovoltaics, wind turbine, supercapacitor, batteries and fuel cell stacks is added to make the building a unit capable of active participation in a price-varying energy market. Computational burden of applying model predictive control on such a complex system is relaxed through a hierarchical decomposition of the microgrid and climate control, where the former is designed as higher hierarchical level with pre-calculated price-optimal power flows control, and latter is designed as lower level control responsible to ensure thermal comfort and exploit the optimal supply conditions enabled by microgrid energy flows management. Such an approach is expected to enable the inclusion of more complex building subsystems into consideration in order to further increase the energy efficiency.

Keywords: Energy-efficient buildings, Hierarchical model predictive control, Microgrid power flow optimization, Price-optimal building climate control.

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Authors: N. Boutra, N. Ravot, J. Benoit, O. Picon

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Submarine power cables used for offshore wind farms electric energy distribution and transmission are subject to numerous threats. Some of the risks are associated with transport, installation and operating in harsh marine environment. This paper describes the feasibility of an electromagnetic low frequency sensing technique for submarine power cable failure prediction. The impact of a structural damage shape and material variability on the induced electric field is evaluated. The analysis is performed by modeling the cable using the finite element method, we use sensitivity analysis in order to identify the main damage characteristics affecting electric field variation. Lastly, we discuss the results obtained.

Keywords: Electromagnetism, defect, finite element method, sensitivity analysis, submarine power cables.

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Authors: Benedetto Manganelli, Beniamino Murgante

Abstract:

The use of statistical data and of the neural networks, capable of elaborate a series of data and territorial info, have allowed the making of a model useful in the subdivision of urban places into homogeneous zone under the profile of a social, real estate, environmental and urbanist background of a city. The development of homogeneous zone has fiscal and urbanist advantages. The tools in the model proposed, able to be adapted to the dynamic changes of the city, allow the application of the zoning fast and dynamic.

Keywords: Homogeneous Urban Areas, Multidimensional Scaling, Neural Network, Real Estate Market, Urban Planning.

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Authors: Y. Galerkin, A. Rekstin, K. Soldatova

Abstract:

Universal modeling method well proven for industrial compressors was applied for design of the high flow rate supersonic stage. Results were checked by ANSYS CFX and NUMECA Fine Turbo calculations. The impeller appeared to be very effective at transonic flow velocities. Stator elements efficiency is acceptable at design Mach numbers too. Their loss coefficient versus inlet flow angle performances correlates well with Universal modeling prediction. The impeller demonstrates ability of satisfactory operation at design flow rate. Supersonic flow behavior in the impeller inducer at the shroud blade to blade surface Φ des deserves additional study.

Keywords: Centrifugal compressor stage, supersonic impeller, inlet flow angle, loss coefficient, return channel, shock wave, vane diffuser.

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Authors: Mahesh Chudasama, Harit Raval

Abstract:

Conical sections and shells of metal plates manufactured by 3-roller conical bending process are widely used in the industries. The process is completed by first bending the metal plates statically and then dynamic roller bending sequentially. It is required to have an analytical model to get maximum bending force, for optimum design of the machine, for static bending stage. Analytical models assuming various stress conditions are considered and these analytical models are compared considering various parameters and reported in this paper. It is concluded from the study that for higher bottom roller inclination, the shear stress affects greatly to the static bending force whereas for lower bottom roller inclination it can be neglected.

Keywords: Roller-bending, static-bending, stress-conditions, analytical-modeling.

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Authors: Nor'Aini Yusof, Ismael Younis Abu-Jarad

Abstract:

This paper investigated the organizational innovativeness of public listed housing developers in Malaysia. We conceptualized organizational innovativeness as a multi-dimensional construct consisting of 5 dimensions: market innovativeness, product innovativeness, process innovativeness, behavior innovativeness and strategic innovativeness. We carried out questionnaire survey with all accessible public listed developers in Malaysia and received a 56 percent response. We found that the innovativeness of public listed housing developers is low. The paper ends by providing some explanations for the results.

Keywords: innovativeness, housing industry, measurement of innovativeness, public listed housing developers

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Authors: Piyush Samant, Ravinder Agarwal

Abstract:

Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM) techniques are quite popular and effective for chronic diseases. Iridology is more than 150 years old CAM technique which analyzes the patterns, tissue weakness, color, shape, structure, etc. for disease diagnosis. The objective of this paper is to validate the use of iridology for the diagnosis of the diabetes. The suggested model was applied in a systemic disease with ocular effects. 200 subject data of 100 each diabetic and non-diabetic were evaluated. Complete procedure was kept very simple and free from the involvement of any iridologist. From the normalized iris, the region of interest was cropped. All 63 features were extracted using statistical, texture analysis, and two-dimensional discrete wavelet transformation. A comparison of accuracies of six different classifiers has been presented. The result shows 89.66% accuracy by the random forest classifier.

Keywords: Complementary and alternative medicine, Iridology, iris, feature extraction, classification, disease prediction.

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Authors: Sumita Chowhan

Abstract:

Abilities are important for academic success. Yet, abilities cannot be the whole story. Styles might be one source of unexplained variation. A style is a preferred way of using ones abilities. Students are thought to be incompetent not because they are lacking in abilities, but because their styles do not match the academic course chosen. The purpose of the study was to determine the role of abilities and learning styles in prediction of academic performance and their adjustment. Participants were 272 engineering students. The tools used are Myers Briggs Type Indicator, Culture Fair Intelligence Test and Student Problem Checklist. The statistical procedures employed were t-test, correlations and stepwise regressions. The analyses of the data indicated that although abilities are better predictors of academic performance, learning styles also shown a significant relationship. The study also indicates that if students learning styles matches to their chosen academic course, they tend to show better performance and less adjustment problems.

Keywords: Abilities, Academic Performance, Adjustment, Learning Styles.

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Authors: L. Richter, J. Lübkemann, P. Nyhuis

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In order to remain competitive in what is a turbulent environment; businesses must be able to react rapidly to change. The past response to volatile market conditions was to introduce an element of flexibility to production. Nowadays, what is often required is a redesign of factory structures in order to cope with the state of constant flux. The Institute of Production Systems and Logistics is currently developing a descriptive and causal model for the redesign of plant structures as part of an ongoing research project. This article presents the first research findings attained in devising this model.

Keywords: Causal model, change driven factory redesign, factory planning, plant structure.

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Authors: P. Vaculik

Abstract:

The newest semiconductor devices on the market are MOSFET transistors based on the silicon carbide – SiC. This material has exclusive features thanks to which it becomes a better switch than Si – silicon semiconductor switch. There are some special features that need to be understood to enable the device’s use to its full potential. The advantages and differences of SiC MOSFETs in comparison with Si IGBT transistors have been described in first part of this article. Second part describes driver for SiC MOSFET transistor and last part of article represents SiC MOSFET in the application of buck converter (step-down) and design of simple RC snubber. 

Keywords: SiC, Si, MOSFET, IGBT, SBD, RC snubber.

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