Search results for: Decision Tree
681 Statistical Evaluation of Nonlinear Distortion using the Multi-Canonical Monte Carlo Method and the Split Step Fourier Method
Authors: Ioannis Neokosmidis, Nikos Gkekas, Thomas Kamalakis, Thomas Sphicopoulos
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In high powered dense wavelength division multiplexed (WDM) systems with low chromatic dispersion, four-wave mixing (FWM) can prove to be a major source of noise. The MultiCanonical Monte Carlo Method (MCMC) and the Split Step Fourier Method (SSFM) are combined to accurately evaluate the probability density function of the decision variable of a receiver, limited by FWM. The combination of the two methods leads to more accurate results, and offers the possibility of adding other optical noises such as the Amplified Spontaneous Emission (ASE) noise.Keywords: Monte Carlo, Nonlinear optics, optical crosstalk, Wavelength-division Multiplexing (WDM).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1681680 Portfolio Simulation in GSM Cellular Telecommunication Industry for Company's Decision and Policies Making
Authors: M. Dachyar, Yudavedito
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The rising growth of the GSM cellular phone industry has tightening competition level between providers in making strategies enhancing the market shares in Indonesia. Tsel, as one of those companies, has to determine the proper strategy to sustain as well as improve the market share without reducing its operational income level. Portfolio simulation model is designed with a dynamic system approach. The result of this research is a recommendation to the company by optimizing its technological policies, services, and promotions. The tariff policies and the signal quality should not be the main focus because this company has had a large number of customers and a good infrastructural condition.
Keywords: Telecommunication industry, simulation, dynamic system, portfolio, quality services.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1605679 Assessing the Actual Status and Farmer’s Attitude towards Agroforestry in Chiniot, Pakistan
Authors: M. F. Nawaz, S. Gul, T. H. Farooq, M. T. Siddiqui, M. Asif, I. Ahmad, N. K. Niazi
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In Pakistan, major demands of fuel wood and timber wood are fulfilled by agroforestry. However, the information regarding economic significance of agroforestry and its productivity in Pakistan is still insufficient and unreliable. Survey of field conditions to examine the agroforestry status at local level helps us to know the future trends and to formulate the policies for sustainable wood supply. The objectives of this research were to examine the actual status and potential of agroforestry and to point out the barriers that are faced by farmers in the adoption of agroforestry. Research was carried out in Chiniot district, Pakistan because it is the famous city for furniture industry that is largely dependent on farm trees. A detailed survey of district Chiniot was carried out from 150 randomly selected farmer respondents using multi-objective oriented and pre-tested questionnaire. It was found that linear tree planting method was more adopted (45%) as compared to linear + interplanting (42%) and/or compact planting (12.6%). Chi-square values at P-value <0.5 showed that age (11.35) and education (17.09) were two more important factors in the quick adoption of agroforestry as compared to land holdings (P-value of 0.7). The major reason of agroforestry adoption was to obtain income, fodder and fuelwood. The most dominant species in farmlands was shisham (Dalbergia sissoo) but since last five years, mostly farmers were growing Sufeida (Eucalyptus camaldulensis), kikar (Acacia nilotica) and popular (Populus deltoides) on their fields due to “Shisham die-back” problem. It was found that agro-forestry can be increased by providing good quality planting material to farmers and improving wood markets.Keywords: Agroforestry, trees, services, agriculture, farmers.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1718678 Investigating Student Behavior in Adopting Online Formative Assessment Feedback
Authors: Peter Clutterbuck, Terry Rowlands, Owen Seamons
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In this paper we describe one critical research program within a complex, ongoing multi-year project (2010 to 2014 inclusive) with the overall goal to improve the learning outcomes for first year undergraduate commerce/business students within an Information Systems (IS) subject with very large enrolment. The single research program described in this paper is the analysis of student attitudes and decision making in relation to the availability of formative assessment feedback via Web-based real time conferencing and document exchange software (Adobe Connect). The formative assessment feedback between teaching staff and students is in respect of an authentic problem-based, team-completed assignment. The analysis of student attitudes and decision making is investigated via both qualitative (firstly) and quantitative (secondly) application of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) with a two statistically-significant and separate trial samples of the enrolled students. The initial qualitative TPB investigation revealed that perceived self-efficacy, improved time-management, and lecturer-student relationship building were the major factors in shaping an overall favorable student attitude to online feedback, whilst some students expressed valid concerns with perceived control limitations identified within the online feedback protocols. The subsequent quantitative TPB investigation then confirmed that attitude towards usage, subjective norms surrounding usage, and perceived behavioral control of usage were all significant in shaping student intention to use the online feedback protocol, with these three variables explaining 63 percent of the variance in the behavioral intention to use the online feedback protocol. The identification in this research of perceived behavioral control as a significant determinant in student usage of a specific technology component within a virtual learning environment (VLE) suggests that VLEs could now be viewed not as a single, atomic entity, but as a spectrum of technology offerings ranging from the mature and simple (e.g., email, Web downloads) to the cutting-edge and challenging (e.g., Web conferencing and real-time document exchange). That is, that all VLEs should not be considered the same. The results of this research suggest that tertiary students have the technological sophistication to assess a VLE in this more selective manner.
Keywords: Formative assessment feedback, virtual learning environment, theory of planned behavior, perceived behavioral control.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2080677 Author Profiling: Prediction of Learners’ Gender on a MOOC Platform Based on Learners’ Comments
Authors: Tahani Aljohani, Jialin Yu, Alexandra. I. Cristea
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The more an educational system knows about a learner, the more personalised interaction it can provide, which leads to better learning. However, asking a learner directly is potentially disruptive, and often ignored by learners. Especially in the booming realm of MOOC Massive Online Learning platforms, only a very low percentage of users disclose demographic information about themselves. Thus, in this paper, we aim to predict learners’ demographic characteristics, by proposing an approach using linguistically motivated Deep Learning Architectures for Learner Profiling, particularly targeting gender prediction on a FutureLearn MOOC platform. Additionally, we tackle here the difficult problem of predicting the gender of learners based on their comments only – which are often available across MOOCs. The most common current approaches to text classification use the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, considering sentences as sequences. However, human language also has structures. In this research, rather than considering sentences as plain sequences, we hypothesise that higher semantic - and syntactic level sentence processing based on linguistics will render a richer representation. We thus evaluate, the traditional LSTM versus other bleeding edge models, which take into account syntactic structure, such as tree-structured LSTM, Stack-augmented Parser-Interpreter Neural Network (SPINN) and the Structure-Aware Tag Augmented model (SATA). Additionally, we explore using different word-level encoding functions. We have implemented these methods on Our MOOC dataset, which is the most performant one comparing with a public dataset on sentiment analysis that is further used as a cross-examining for the models' results.
Keywords: Deep learning, data mining, gender predication, MOOCs.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1348676 ARMrayan Multimedia Mobile CMS: a Simplified Approach towards Content-Oriented Mobile Application Designing
Authors: Ali Reza Manashty, Mohammad Reza Ahmadzadeh Raji, Zahra Forootan Jahromi, Amir Rajabzadeh
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The ARMrayan Multimedia Mobile CMS (Content Management System) is the first mobile CMS that gives the opportunity to users for creating multimedia J2ME mobile applications with their desired content, design and logo; simply, without any need for writing even a line of code. The low-level programming and compatibility problems of the J2ME, along with UI designing difficulties, makes it hard for most people –even programmers- to broadcast their content to the widespread mobile phones used by nearly all people. This system provides user-friendly, PC-based tools for creating a tree index of pages and inserting multiple multimedia contents (e.g. sound, video and picture) in each page for creating a J2ME mobile application. The output is a standalone Java mobile application that has a user interface, shows texts and pictures and plays music and videos regardless of the type of devices used as long as the devices support the J2ME platform. Bitmap fonts have also been used thus Middle Eastern languages can be easily supported on all mobile phone devices. We omitted programming concepts for users in order to simplify multimedia content-oriented mobile applictaion designing for use in educational, cultural or marketing centers. Ordinary operators can now create a variety of multimedia mobile applications such as tutorials, catalogues, books, and guides in minutes rather than months. Simplicity and power has been the goal of this CMS. In this paper, we present the software engineered-designed concepts of the ARMrayan MCMS along with the implementation challenges faces and solutions adapted.Keywords: Mobile CMS, MCMS, Mobile Content Builder, J2ME Application, Multimedia Mobile Application, MultimediaCMS, Multimedia Mobile CMS, Content Management System.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1661675 A Matrix Evaluation Model for Sustainability Assessment of Manufacturing Technologies
Authors: Q. Z. Yang, B. H. Chua, B. Song
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Technology assessment is a vital part of decision process in manufacturing, particularly for decisions on selection of new sustainable manufacturing processes. To assess these processes, a matrix approach is introduced and sustainability assessment models are developed. Case studies show that the matrix-based approach provides a flexible and practical way for sustainability evaluation of new manufacturing technologies such as those used in surface coating. The technology assessment of coating processes reveals that compared with powder coating, the sol-gel coating can deliver better technical, economical and environmental sustainability with respect to the selected sustainability evaluation criteria for a decorative coating application of car wheels.
Keywords: Evaluation matrix, sustainable manufacturing, surface coating, technology assessment
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2622674 A Fuzzy Logic Based Navigation of a Mobile Robot
Authors: Anis Fatmi, Amur Al Yahmadi, Lazhar Khriji, Nouri Masmoudi
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One of the long standing challenging aspect in mobile robotics is the ability to navigate autonomously, avoiding modeled and unmodeled obstacles especially in crowded and unpredictably changing environment. A successful way of structuring the navigation task in order to deal with the problem is within behavior based navigation approaches. In this study, Issues of individual behavior design and action coordination of the behaviors will be addressed using fuzzy logic. A layered approach is employed in this work in which a supervision layer based on the context makes a decision as to which behavior(s) to process (activate) rather than processing all behavior(s) and then blending the appropriate ones, as a result time and computational resources are saved.
Keywords: Behavior based navigation, context based coordination, fuzzy logic, mobile robots.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1848673 Using Perspective Schemata to Model the ETL Process
Authors: Valeria M. Pequeno, Joao Carlos G. M. Pires
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Data Warehouses (DWs) are repositories which contain the unified history of an enterprise for decision support. The data must be Extracted from information sources, Transformed and integrated to be Loaded (ETL) into the DW, using ETL tools. These tools focus on data movement, where the models are only used as a means to this aim. Under a conceptual viewpoint, the authors want to innovate the ETL process in two ways: 1) to make clear compatibility between models in a declarative fashion, using correspondence assertions and 2) to identify the instances of different sources that represent the same entity in the real-world. This paper presents the overview of the proposed framework to model the ETL process, which is based on the use of a reference model and perspective schemata. This approach provides the designer with a better understanding of the semantic associated with the ETL process.
Keywords: conceptual data model, correspondence assertions, data warehouse, data integration, ETL process, object relational database.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1501672 Multi-Criteria Nautical Ports Capacity and Services Planning
Authors: N. Perko, N. Kavran, M. Bukljaš, I. Berbić
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This paper is a result of implemented research on proposed introduced methodology for nautical ports capacity planning by introducing a multi-criteria approach of defined criteria in the Adriatic Sea region. The purpose was analyzing the determinants - characteristics of infrastructure and services of nautical ports capacity allocated, especially nowadays due to COVID-19 pandemic, as crucial for successful operation of nautical ports. Giving the importance of the defined priorities for short-term and long-term planning is essential not only in terms of the development of nautical tourism, but also in terms of developing the maritime system, but unfortunately this is not always carried out. Evaluation of the use of resources should follow from a detailed analysis of all aspects of resources bearing in mind that nautical tourism used resources in a sustainable manner and generates effects in the tourism and maritime sectors. Consequently, identified multiplier effect of nautical tourism, which should be defined and quantified in detail, should be one of the major competitive products on the Croatian Adriatic and the Mediterranean. Research of nautical tourism is necessary to quantify the effects and required planning system development. In the future, the greatest threat to long-term sustainable development of nautical tourism can be its further uncontrolled or unlimited and undirected development, especially under pressure markedly higher demand than supply for new moorings in the Mediterranean. Results of this implemented research are applicable to nautical ports management and decision makers of maritime transport system development. This paper will present implemented research and obtained result - developed methodology for nautical port capacity planning - Port Capacity Planning Multi-criteria decision-making. A proposed methodological approach of multi-criteria capacity planning includes four criteria (spatial - transport, cost - infrastructure, ecological and organizational criteria, and additional services). The importance of the criteria and sub-criteria is evaluated and carried out the basis for a sensitivity analysis of the importance of the criteria and sub-criteria. Based on the analysis of the identified and quantified importance of certain criteria and sub-criteria as well as sensitivity analysis and analysis of changes of the quantified importance scientific and applicable results will be presented. These obtained results have practical applicability by management of nautical ports in the planning of increasing capacity and further development and for the adaptation of existing nautical ports. The obtained research is applicable and replicable in other seas and results are especially important and useful in this COVID-19 pandemic challenging maritime development framework.
Keywords: Adriatic Sea, capacity, infrastructures, maritime system, methodology, nautical ports, nautical tourism, service.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 423671 An Output Oriented Super-Efficiency Model for Considering Time Lag Effect
Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong
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There exists some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in calculating efficiency of decision making units (DMU). Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. This problem can be resolved a super-efficiency model. However, a super efficiency model sometimes causes infeasibility problem. This paper suggests an output oriented super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect. A case example using a long term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model.
Keywords: DEA, Super-efficiency, Time Lag.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2676670 Multi Objective Micro Genetic Algorithm for Combine and Reroute Problem
Authors: Soottipoom Yaowiwat, Manoj Lohatepanont, Proadpran Punyabukkana
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Several approaches such as linear programming, network modeling, greedy heuristic and decision support system are well-known approaches in solving irregular airline operation problem. This paper presents an alternative approach based on Multi Objective Micro Genetic Algorithm. The aim of this research is to introduce the concept of Multi Objective Micro Genetic Algorithm as a tool to solve irregular airline operation, combine and reroute problem. The experiment result indicated that the model could obtain optimal solutions within a few second.Keywords: Irregular Airline Operation, Combine and RerouteRoutine, Genetic Algorithm, Micro Genetic Algorithm, Multi ObjectiveOptimization, Evolutionary Algorithm.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1631669 A Heuristic Based Conceptual Framework for Product Innovation
Authors: Amalia Suzianti
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This research elaborates decision models for product innovation in the early phases, focusing on one of the most widely implemented method in marketing research: conjoint analysis and the related conjoint-based models with special focus on heuristics programming techniques for the development of optimal product innovation. The concept, potential, requirements and limitations of conjoint analysis and its conjoint-based heuristics successors are analysed and the development of conceptual framework of Genetic Algorithm (GA) as one of the most widely implemented heuristic methods for developing product innovations are discussed.Keywords: Product Innovation, Conjoint Analysis, Heuristic Model, Genetic Algorithm
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1600668 CFD Simulations to Examine Natural Ventilation of a Work Area in a Public Building
Authors: An-Shik Yang, Chiang-Ho Cheng, Jen-Hao Wu, Yu-Hsuan Juan
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Natural ventilation has played an important role for many low energy-building designs. It has been also noticed as a essential subject to persistently bring the fresh cool air from the outside into a building. This study carried out the computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based simulations to examine the natural ventilation development of a work area in a public building. The simulated results can be useful to better understand the indoor microclimate and the interaction of wind with buildings. Besides, this CFD simulation procedure can serve as an effective analysis tool to characterize the airing performance, and thereby optimize the building ventilation for strengthening the architects, planners and other decision makers on improving the natural ventilation design of public buildings.
Keywords: CFD simulations, Natural ventilation, Microclimate, Wind environment.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3745667 A Hidden Markov Model for Modeling Pavement Deterioration under Incomplete Monitoring Data
Authors: Nam Lethanh, Bryan T. Adey
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In this paper, the potential use of an exponential hidden Markov model to model a hidden pavement deterioration process, i.e. one that is not directly measurable, is investigated. It is assumed that the evolution of the physical condition, which is the hidden process, and the evolution of the values of pavement distress indicators, can be adequately described using discrete condition states and modeled as a Markov processes. It is also assumed that condition data can be collected by visual inspections over time and represented continuously using an exponential distribution. The advantage of using such a model in decision making process is illustrated through an empirical study using real world data.Keywords: Deterioration modeling, Exponential distribution, Hidden Markov model, Pavement management
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2293666 Analysis of Testing and Operational Software Reliability in SRGM based on NHPP
Authors: S. Thirumurugan, D. R. Prince Williams
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Software Reliability is one of the key factors in the software development process. Software Reliability is estimated using reliability models based on Non Homogenous Poisson Process. In most of the literature the Software Reliability is predicted only in testing phase. So it leads to wrong decision-making concept. In this paper, two Software Reliability concepts, testing and operational phase are studied in detail. Using S-Shaped Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM) and Exponential SRGM, the testing and operational reliability values are obtained. Finally two reliability values are compared and optimal release time is investigated.Keywords: Error Detection Rate, Estimation of Parameters, Instantaneous Failure Rate, Mean Value Function, Non Homogenous Poisson Process (NHPP), Software Reliability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1619665 Stochastic Resonance in Nonlinear Signal Detection
Authors: Youguo Wang, Lenan Wu
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Stochastic resonance (SR) is a phenomenon whereby the signal transmission or signal processing through certain nonlinear systems can be improved by adding noise. This paper discusses SR in nonlinear signal detection by a simple test statistic, which can be computed from multiple noisy data in a binary decision problem based on a maximum a posteriori probability criterion. The performance of detection is assessed by the probability of detection error Per . When the input signal is subthreshold signal, we establish that benefit from noise can be gained for different noises and confirm further that the subthreshold SR exists in nonlinear signal detection. The efficacy of SR is significantly improved and the minimum of Per can dramatically approach to zero as the sample number increases. These results show the robustness of SR in signal detection and extend the applicability of SR in signal processing.Keywords: Probability of detection error, signal detection, stochastic resonance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1521664 Identifying Blind Spots in a Stereo View for Early Decisions in SI for Fusion based DMVC
Authors: H. Ali, K. Hameed, N. Khan
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In DMVC, we have more than one options of sources available for construction of side information. The newer techniques make use of both the techniques simultaneously by constructing a bitmask that determines the source of every block or pixel of the side information. A lot of computation is done to determine each bit in the bitmask. In this paper, we have tried to define areas that can only be well predicted by temporal interpolation and not by multiview interpolation or synthesis. We predict that all such areas that are not covered by two cameras cannot be appropriately predicted by multiview synthesis and if we can identify such areas in the first place, we don-t need to go through the script of computations for all the pixels that lie in those areas. Moreover, this paper also defines a technique based on KLT to mark the above mentioned areas before any other processing is done on the side view.
Keywords: Side Information, Distributed Multiview Video Coding, Fusion, Early Decision.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1322663 The PARADIGMA Approach for Cooperative Work in the Medical Domain
Authors: Antonio Di Leva, Carla Reyneri, Michele Sonnessa
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PARADIGMA (PARticipative Approach to DIsease Global Management) is a pilot project which aims to develop and demonstrate an Internet based reference framework to share scientific resources and findings in the treatment of major diseases. PARADIGMA defines and disseminates a common methodology and optimised protocols (Clinical Pathways) to support service functions directed to patients and individuals on matters like prevention, posthospitalisation support and awareness. PARADIGMA will provide a platform of information services - user oriented and optimised against social, cultural and technological constraints - supporting the Health Care Global System of the Euro-Mediterranean Community in a continuous improvement process.Keywords: Decision Support Systems, Ontology, Healt Care, Clinical Pathway
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1380662 Appraisal on Link Lifetime Prediction Using Geographical Information
Authors: C. Nallusamy, A. Sabari, K. Suganya
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Geographical routing protocol requires node physical location information to make forwarding decision. Geographical routing uses location service or position service to obtain the position of a node. The geographical information is a geographic coordinates or can be obtained through reference points on some fixed coordinate system. Link can be formed between two nodes. Link lifetime plays a crucial role in MANET. Link lifetime represent how long the link is stable without any failure between the nodes. Link failure may occur due to mobility and because of link failure energy of nodes can be drained. Thus this paper proposes survey about link lifetime prediction using geographical information.Keywords: MANET, Geographical routing, Link lifetime, Link stability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1716661 Perspectives on Neuropsychological Testimony
Authors: Valene J. Gresham, MA, Laura A. Brodie
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For the last decade, statistics show traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a growing concern in our legal system. In an effort to obtain data regarding the influence of neuropsychological expert witness testimony in a criminal case, this study tested three hypotheses. H1: The majority of jurors will vote not guilty, due to mild head injury. H2: The jurors will give more credence to the testimony of the neuropsychologist rather than the psychiatrist. H3: The jurors will be more lenient in their sentencing, given the testimony of the neuropsychologist-s testimony. The criterion for inclusion in the study as a participant is identical to those used for inclusion in the eligibility for jury duty in the United States. A chisquared test was performed to analyze the data for the three hypotheses. The results supported all of the hypotheses; however statistical significance was seen in H1 and H2 only.Keywords: Expert witness, jury decision, neuropsychology, traumatic brain injury.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2309660 Using Fractional Factorial Designs for Variable Importance in Random Forest Models
Authors: Ewa. M. Sztendur, Neil T. Diamond
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Random Forests are a powerful classification technique, consisting of a collection of decision trees. One useful feature of Random Forests is the ability to determine the importance of each variable in predicting the outcome. This is done by permuting each variable and computing the change in prediction accuracy before and after the permutation. This variable importance calculation is similar to a one-factor-at a time experiment and therefore is inefficient. In this paper, we use a regular fractional factorial design to determine which variables to permute. Based on the results of the trials in the experiment, we calculate the individual importance of the variables, with improved precision over the standard method. The method is illustrated with a study of student attrition at Monash University.
Keywords: Random Forests, Variable Importance, Fractional Factorial Designs, Student Attrition.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1984659 Strategic Information in the Game of Go
Authors: Michael Harre, Terry Bossomaier, Ranqing Chu, Allan Snyder
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We introduce a novel approach to measuring how humans learn based on techniques from information theory and apply it to the oriental game of Go. We show that the total amount of information observable in human strategies, called the strategic information, remains constant for populations of players of differing skill levels for well studied patterns of play. This is despite the very large amount of knowledge required to progress from the recreational players at one end of our spectrum to the very best and most experienced players in the world at the other and is in contrast to the idea that having more knowledge might imply more 'certainty' in what move to play next. We show this is true for very local up to medium sized board patterns, across a variety of different moves using 80,000 game records. Consequences for theoretical and practical AI are outlined.Keywords: Board Games, Cognitive Capacity, Decision Theory, Information Theory.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1515658 A Development of a Simulation Tool for Production Planning with Capacity-Booking at Specialty Store Retailer of Private Label Apparel Firms
Authors: Erika Yamaguchi, Sirawadee Arunyanrt, Shunichi Ohmori, Kazuho Yoshimoto
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In this paper, we suggest a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning for maximizing a profit of Specialty store retailer of Private label Apparel (SPA) firms. Most of SPA firms are fabless and make outsourcing deals for productions with factories of their subcontractors. Every month, SPA firms make a booking for production lines and manpower in the factories. The booking is conducted a few months in advance based on a demand prediction and a monthly production planning at that time. However, the demand prediction is updated month by month, and the monthly production planning would change to meet the latest demand prediction. Then, SPA firms have to change the capacities initially booked within a certain range to suit to the monthly production planning. The booking system is called “capacity-booking”. These days, though it is an issue for SPA firms to make precise monthly production planning, many firms are still conducting the production planning by empirical rules. In addition, it is also a challenge for SPA firms to match their products and factories with considering their demand predictabilities and regulation abilities. In this paper, we suggest a model for considering these two issues. An objective is to maximize a total profit of certain periods, which is sales minus costs of production, inventory, and capacity-booking penalty. To make a better monthly production planning at SPA firms, these points should be considered: demand predictabilities by random trends, previous and next month’s production planning of the target month, and regulation abilities of the capacity-booking. To decide matching products and factories for outsourcing, it is important to consider seasonality, volume, and predictability of each product, production possibility, size, and regulation ability of each factory. SPA firms have to consider these constructions and decide orders with several factories per one product. We modeled these issues as a linear programming. To validate the model, an example of several computational experiments with a SPA firm is presented. We suppose four typical product groups: basic, seasonal (Spring / Summer), seasonal (Fall / Winter), and spot product. As a result of the experiments, a monthly production planning was provided. In the planning, demand predictabilities from random trend are reduced by producing products which are different product types. Moreover, priorities to produce are given to high-margin products. In conclusion, we developed a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning which is useful when the production planning is set every month. We considered the features of capacity-booking, and matching of products and factories which have different features and conditions.
Keywords: Capacity-booking, SPA, monthly production planning, linear programming.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1320657 Evaluation of Disease Risk Variables in the Control of Bovine Tuberculosis
Authors: Berrin Şentürk
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In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.Keywords: Bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1110656 Cluster Analysis of Customer Churn in Telecom Industry
Authors: Abbas Al-Refaie
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The research examines the factors that affect customer churn (CC) in the Jordanian telecom industry. A total of 700 surveys were distributed. Cluster analysis revealed three main clusters. Results showed that CC and customer satisfaction (CS) were the key determinants in forming the three clusters. In two clusters, the center values of CC were high, indicating that the customers were loyal and SC was expensive and time- and energy-consuming. Still, the mobile service provider (MSP) should enhance its communication (COM), and value added services (VASs), as well as customer complaint management systems (CCMS). Finally, for the third cluster the center of the CC indicates a poor level of loyalty, which facilitates customers churn to another MSP. The results of this study provide valuable feedback for MSP decision makers regarding approaches to improving their performance and reducing CC.
Keywords: Cluster analysis, telecom industry, switching cost, customer churn.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2526655 Image Thresholding for Weld Defect Extraction in Industrial Radiographic Testing
Authors: Nafaâ Nacereddine, Latifa Hamami, Djemel Ziou
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In non destructive testing by radiography, a perfect knowledge of the weld defect shape is an essential step to appreciate the quality of the weld and make decision on its acceptability or rejection. Because of the complex nature of the considered images, and in order that the detected defect region represents the most accurately possible the real defect, the choice of thresholding methods must be done judiciously. In this paper, performance criteria are used to conduct a comparative study of thresholding methods based on gray level histogram, 2-D histogram and locally adaptive approach for weld defect extraction in radiographic images.
Keywords: 1D and 2D histogram, locally adaptive approach, performance criteria, radiographic image, thresholding, weld defect.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2331654 Application of Neural Networks in Financial Data Mining
Authors: Defu Zhang, Qingshan Jiang, Xin Li
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This paper deals with the application of a well-known neural network technique, multilayer back-propagation (BP) neural network, in financial data mining. A modified neural network forecasting model is presented, and an intelligent mining system is developed. The system can forecast the buying and selling signs according to the prediction of future trends to stock market, and provide decision-making for stock investors. The simulation result of seven years to Shanghai Composite Index shows that the return achieved by this mining system is about three times as large as that achieved by the buy and hold strategy, so it is advantageous to apply neural networks to forecast financial time series, the different investors could benefit from it.
Keywords: Data mining, neural network, stock forecasting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3579653 Integrating Life Cycle Uncertainties for Evaluating a Building Overall Cost
Authors: M. Arja, G. Sauce, B. Souyri
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Overall cost is a significant consideration in any decision-making process. Although many studies were carried out on overall cost in construction, little has treated the uncertainties of real life cycle development. On the basis of several case studies, a feedback process was performed on the historical data of studied buildings. This process enabled to identify some factors causing uncertainty during the operational period. As a result, the research proposes a new method for assessing the overall cost during a part of the building-s life cycle taking account of the building actual value, its end-of-life value and the influence of the identified life cycle uncertainty factors. The findings are a step towards a higher level of reliability in overall cost evaluation taking account of some usually unexpected uncertainty factors.Keywords: Asset management, building life cycle uncertainty, building value, overall cost.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1640652 An Analysis of Activity-Based Costing in a Manufacturing System
Authors: Derya Eren Akyol, Gonca Tuncel, G. Mirac Bayhan
Abstract:
Activity-Based Costing (ABC) represents an alternative paradigm to traditional cost accounting system and it often provides more accurate cost information for decision making such as product pricing, product mix, and make-orbuy decisions. ABC models the causal relationships between products and the resources used in their production and traces the cost of products according to the activities through the use of appropriate cost drivers. In this paper, the implementation of the ABC in a manufacturing system is analyzed and a comparison with the traditional cost based system in terms of the effects on the product costs are carried out to highlight the difference between two costing methodologies. By using this methodology, a valuable insight into the factors that cause the cost is provided, helping to better manage the activities of the company.Keywords: Activity-based costing, manufacturing systems, product costs, traditional costing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3138