Search results for: Multivariate Hierarchical Linear Model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8763

Search results for: Multivariate Hierarchical Linear Model

7743 New Explicit Group Newton's Iterative Methods for the Solutions of Burger's Equation

Authors: Tan K. B., Norhashidah Hj. M. Ali

Abstract:

In this article, we aim to discuss the formulation of two explicit group iterative finite difference methods for time-dependent two dimensional Burger-s problem on a variable mesh. For the non-linear problems, the discretization leads to a non-linear system whose Jacobian is a tridiagonal matrix. We discuss the Newton-s explicit group iterative methods for a general Burger-s equation. The proposed explicit group methods are derived from the standard point and rotated point Crank-Nicolson finite difference schemes. Their computational complexity analysis is discussed. Numerical results are given to justify the feasibility of these two proposed iterative methods.

Keywords: Standard point Crank-Nicolson (CN), Rotated point Crank-Nicolson (RCN), Explicit Group (EG), Explicit Decoupled Group (EDG).

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7742 A Martingale Residual Diagnostic for Logistic Regression Model

Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

Abstract:

Martingale model diagnostic for assessing the fit of logistic regression model to recurrent events data are studied. One way of assessing the fit is by plotting the empirical standard deviation of the standardized martingale residual processes. Here we used another diagnostic plot based on martingale residual covariance. We investigated the plot performance under several types of model misspecification. Clearly the method has correctly picked up the wrong model. Also we present a test statistic that supplement the inspection of the two diagnostic. The test statistic power agrees with what we have seen in the plots of the estimated martingale covariance.

Keywords: Covariance, logistic model, misspecification, recurrent events.

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7741 A Perceptually Optimized Foveation Based Wavelet Embedded Zero Tree Image Coding

Authors: A. Bajit, M. Nahid, A. Tamtaoui, E. H. Bouyakhf

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a Perceptually Optimized Foveation based Embedded ZeroTree Image Coder (POEFIC) that introduces a perceptual weighting to wavelet coefficients prior to control SPIHT encoding algorithm in order to reach a targeted bit rate with a perceptual quality improvement with respect to a given bit rate a fixation point which determines the region of interest ROI. The paper also, introduces a new objective quality metric based on a Psychovisual model that integrates the properties of the HVS that plays an important role in our POEFIC quality assessment. Our POEFIC coder is based on a vision model that incorporates various masking effects of human visual system HVS perception. Thus, our coder weights the wavelet coefficients based on that model and attempts to increase the perceptual quality for a given bit rate and observation distance. The perceptual weights for all wavelet subbands are computed based on 1) foveation masking to remove or reduce considerable high frequencies from peripheral regions 2) luminance and Contrast masking, 3) the contrast sensitivity function CSF to achieve the perceptual decomposition weighting. The new perceptually optimized codec has the same complexity as the original SPIHT techniques. However, the experiments results show that our coder demonstrates very good performance in terms of quality measurement.

Keywords: DWT, linear-phase 9/7 filter, Foveation Filtering, CSF implementation approaches, 9/7 Wavelet JND Thresholds and Wavelet Error Sensitivity WES, Luminance and Contrast masking, standard SPIHT, Objective Quality Measure, Probability Score PS.

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7740 Active Control Improvement of Smart Cantilever Beam by Piezoelectric Materials and On-Line Differential Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: P. Karimi, A. H. Khedmati Bazkiaei

Abstract:

The main goal of this study is to test differential neural network as a controller of smart structure and is to enumerate its advantages and disadvantages in comparison with other controllers. In this study, the smart structure has been considered as a Euler Bernoulli cantilever beam and it has been tried that it be under control with the use of vibration neural network resulting from movement. Also, a linear observer has been considered as a reference controller and has been compared its results. The considered vibration charts and the controlled state have been recounted in the final part of this text. The obtained result show that neural observer has better performance in comparison to the implemented linear observer.

Keywords: Smart material, on-line differential artificial neural network, active control, finite element method.

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7739 A Intelligent Inference Model about Complex Systems- Stability: Inspiration from Nature

Authors: Naiqin Feng, Yuhui Qiu, Yingshan Zhang, Fang Wang

Abstract:

A logic model for analyzing complex systems- stability is very useful to many areas of sciences. In the real world, we are enlightened from some natural phenomena such as “biosphere", “food chain", “ecological balance" etc. By research and practice, and taking advantage of the orthogonality and symmetry defined by the theory of multilateral matrices, we put forward a logic analysis model of stability of complex systems with three relations, and prove it by means of mathematics. This logic model is usually successful in analyzing stability of a complex system. The structure of the logic model is not only clear and simple, but also can be easily used to research and solve many stability problems of complex systems. As an application, some examples are given.

Keywords: Complex system, logic model, relation, stability.

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7738 Sensitivity Analysis for Direction of Arrival Estimation Using Capon and Music Algorithms in Mobile Radio Environment

Authors: Mustafa Abdalla, Khaled A. Madi, Rajab Farhat

Abstract:

An array antenna system with innovative signal processing can improve the resolution of a source direction of arrival (DoA) estimation. High resolution techniques take the advantage of array antenna structures to better process the incoming waves. They also have the capability to identify the direction of multiple targets. This paper investigates performance of the DOA estimation algorithm namely; Capon and MUSIC on the uniform linear array (ULA). The simulation results show that in Capon and MUSIC algorithm the resolution of the DOA techniques improves as number of snapshots, number of array elements, signal-to-noise ratio and separation angle between the two sources θ increases.

Keywords: Antenna array, Capon, MUSIC, Direction-of-arrival estimation, signal processing, uniform linear arrays.

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7737 Unsupervised Texture Classification and Segmentation

Authors: V.P.Subramanyam Rallabandi, S.K.Sett

Abstract:

An unsupervised classification algorithm is derived by modeling observed data as a mixture of several mutually exclusive classes that are each described by linear combinations of independent non-Gaussian densities. The algorithm estimates the data density in each class by using parametric nonlinear functions that fit to the non-Gaussian structure of the data. This improves classification accuracy compared with standard Gaussian mixture models. When applied to textures, the algorithm can learn basis functions for images that capture the statistically significant structure intrinsic in the images. We apply this technique to the problem of unsupervised texture classification and segmentation.

Keywords: Gaussian Mixture Model, Independent Component Analysis, Segmentation, Unsupervised Classification.

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7736 Path-Tracking Controller for Tracked Mobile Robot on Rough Terrain

Authors: Toshifumi Hiramatsu, Satoshi Morita, Manuel Pencelli, Marta Niccolini, Matteo Ragaglia, Alfredo Argiolas

Abstract:

Automation technologies for agriculture field are needed to promote labor-saving. One of the most relevant problems in automated agriculture is represented by controlling the robot along a predetermined path in presence of rough terrain or incline ground. Unfortunately, disturbances originating from interaction with the ground, such as slipping, make it quite difficult to achieve the required accuracy. In general, it is required to move within 5-10 cm accuracy with respect to the predetermined path. Moreover, lateral velocity caused by gravity on the incline field also affects slipping. In this paper, a path-tracking controller for tracked mobile robots moving on rough terrains of incline field such as vineyard is presented. The controller is composed of a disturbance observer and an adaptive controller based on the kinematic model of the robot. The disturbance observer measures the difference between the measured and the reference yaw rate and linear velocity in order to estimate slip. Then, the adaptive controller adapts “virtual” parameter of the kinematics model: Instantaneous Centers of Rotation (ICRs). Finally, target angular velocity reference is computed according to the adapted parameter. This solution allows estimating the effects of slip without making the model too complex. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed solution is tested in a simulation environment.

Keywords: Agricultural robot, autonomous control, path-tracking control, tracked mobile robot.

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7735 An Adverse Model for Price Discrimination in the Case of Monopoly

Authors: Daniela Elena Marinescu, Ioana Manafi, Dumitru Marin

Abstract:

We consider a Principal-Agent model with the Principal being a seller who does not know perfectly how much the buyer (the Agent) is willing to pay for the good. The buyer-s preferences are hence his private information. The model corresponds to the nonlinear pricing problem of Maskin and Riley. We assume there are three types of Agents. The model is solved using “informational rents" as variables. In the last section we present the main characteristics of the optimal contracts in asymmetric information and some possible extensions of the model.

Keywords: Adverse selection, asymmetric information, informational rent, nonlinear pricing, optimal contract

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7734 A Convenient Model for I-V Characteristic of a Solar Cell Generator as an Active Two-Pole with Self-Limitation of Current

Authors: A. A. Penin, A. S. Sidorenko

Abstract:

A convenient and physically sound mathematical model of the external or I - V characteristic of solar cells generators is presented in this paper. This model is compared with the traditional model of p-n junction. The direct analytical calculation of load regime leads to a quadratic equation, which is importantly to simplify the calculations in the real time.

Keywords: A solar cell generator, I−V characteristic, activetwo-pole.

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7733 Stochastic Estimation of Cavity Flowfield

Authors: Yin Yin Pey, Leok Poh Chua, Wei Long Siauw

Abstract:

Linear stochastic estimation and quadratic stochastic estimation techniques were applied to estimate the entire velocity flow-field of an open cavity with a length to depth ratio of 2. The estimations were done through the use of instantaneous velocity magnitude as estimators. These measurements were obtained by Particle Image Velocimetry. The predicted flow was compared against the original flow-field in terms of the Reynolds stresses and turbulent kinetic energy. Quadratic stochastic estimation proved to be more superior than linear stochastic estimation in resolving the shear layer flow. When the velocity fluctuations were scaled up in the quadratic estimate, both the time-averaged quantities and the instantaneous cavity flow can be predicted to a rather accurate extent.

Keywords: Open cavity, Particle Image Velocimetry, Stochastic estimation, Turbulent kinetic energy.

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7732 A Numerical Study of Seismic Response of Shallow Square Tunnels in Two-Layered Ground

Authors: Mahmoud Hassanlourad, Mehran Naghizadehrokni, Vahid Molaei

Abstract:

In this study, the seismic behavior of a shallow tunnel with square cross section is investigated in a two layered and elastic heterogeneous environment using numerical method. To do so, FLAC finite difference software was used. Behavioral model of the ground and tunnel structure was assumed linear elastic. Dynamic load was applied to the model for 0.2 seconds from the bottom in form of a square pulse with maximum acceleration of 1 m/s2. The interface between the two layers was considered at three different levels of crest, middle, and bottom of the tunnel. The stiffness of the two upper and lower layers was considered to be varied from 10 MPa to 1000 MPa. Deformation of cross section of the tunnel due to dynamic load propagation, as well as the values of axial force and bending moment created in the tunnel structure, were examined in the three states mentioned above. The results of analyses show that heterogeneity of the environment, its stratification, and positioning of the interface of the two layers with respect to tunnel height and the stiffness ratio of the two layers have significant effects on the value of bending moment, axial force, and distortion of tunnel cross-section.

Keywords: Dynamic analysis, shallow-buried tunnel, two-layered ground.

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7731 Laser Ultrasonic Imaging Based on Synthetic Aperture Focusing Technique Algorithm

Authors: Sundara Subramanian Karuppasamy, Che Hua Yang

Abstract:

In this work, the laser ultrasound technique has been used for analyzing and imaging the inner defects in metal blocks. To detect the defects in blocks, traditionally the researchers used piezoelectric transducers for the generation and reception of ultrasonic signals. These transducers can be configured into the sparse and phased array. But these two configurations have their drawbacks including the requirement of many transducers, time-consuming calculations, limited bandwidth, and provide confined image resolution. Here, we focus on the non-contact method for generating and receiving the ultrasound to examine the inner defects in aluminum blocks. A Q-switched pulsed laser has been used for the generation and the reception is done by using Laser Doppler Vibrometer (LDV). Based on the Doppler effect, LDV provides a rapid and high spatial resolution way for sensing ultrasonic waves. From the LDV, a series of scanning points are selected which serves as the phased array elements. The side-drilled hole of 10 mm diameter with a depth of 25 mm has been introduced and the defect is interrogated by the linear array of scanning points obtained from the LDV. With the aid of the Synthetic Aperture Focusing Technique (SAFT) algorithm, based on the time-shifting principle the inspected images are generated from the A-scan data acquired from the 1-D linear phased array elements. Thus the defect can be precisely detected with good resolution.

Keywords: Laser ultrasonics, linear phased array, nondestructive testing, synthetic aperture focusing technique, ultrasonic imaging.

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7730 Analytical Model for Predicting Whole Building Heat Transfer

Authors: Xiaoshu Lu, Martti Viljanen

Abstract:

A new analytical model is developed which provides close-formed solutions for both transient indoor and envelope temperature changes in buildings. Time-dependent boundary temperature is presented as Fourier series which can approximate real weather conditions. The final close-formed solutions are simple, concise, and comprehensive. The model was compared with numerical results and good accuracy was obtained. The model can be used as design and control guidelines in engineering applications for analysing mechanical heat transfer properties for buildings.

Keywords: Analytical model, heat transfer, whole building.

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7729 Step Method for Solving Nonlinear Two Delays Differential Equation in Parkinson’s Disease

Authors: H. N. Agiza, M. A. Sohaly, M. A. Elfouly

Abstract:

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a heterogeneous disorder with common age of onset, symptoms, and progression levels. In this paper we will solve analytically the PD model as a non-linear delay differential equation using the steps method. The step method transforms a system of delay differential equations (DDEs) into systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). On some numerical examples, the analytical solution will be difficult. So we will approximate the analytical solution using Picard method and Taylor method to ODEs.

Keywords: Parkinson's disease, Step method, delay differential equation, simulation.

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7728 Complexity Reduction Approach with Jacobi Iterative Method for Solving Composite Trapezoidal Algebraic Equations

Authors: Mohana Sundaram Muthuvalu, Jumat Sulaiman

Abstract:

In this paper, application of the complexity reduction approach based on half- and quarter-sweep iteration concepts with Jacobi iterative method for solving composite trapezoidal (CT) algebraic equations is discussed. The performances of the methods for CT algebraic equations are comparatively studied by their application in solving linear Fredholm integral equations of the second kind. Furthermore, computational complexity analysis and numerical results for three test problems are also included in order to verify performance of the methods.

Keywords: Complexity reduction approach, Composite trapezoidal scheme, Jacobi method, Linear Fredholm integral equations

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7727 Supply Chain Modeling and Improving Manufacturing Industry in Developing Countries: A Research Agenda

Authors: F.B. Georgise, K. D. Thoben, M. Seifert

Abstract:

This paper presents a research agenda on the SCOR model adaptation. SCOR model is designated to measure supply chain performance and logistics impact across the boundaries of individual organizations. It is at its growing stage of its life cycle and is enjoying the leverage of becoming the industry standard. The SCOR model has been developed and used widely in developed countries context. This research focuses on the SCOR model adaptation for the manufacturing industry in developing countries. With a necessary understanding of the characteristics, difficulties and problems of the manufacturing industry in developing countries- supply chain; consequently, we will try to designs an adapted model with its building blocks: business process model, performance measures and best practices.

Keywords: developing countries, manufacturing industry, SCOR model adaptation

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7726 Horizontal and Vertical Illuminance Correlations in a Case Study for Shaded South Facing Surfaces

Authors: S. Matour, M. Mahdavinejad, R. Fayaz

Abstract:

Daylight utilization is a key factor in achieving visual and thermal comfort, and energy savings in integrated building design. However, lack of measured data related to this topic has become a major challenge with the increasing need for integrating lighting concepts and simulations in the early stages of design procedures. The current paper deals with the values of daylight illuminance on horizontal and south facing vertical surfaces; the data are estimated using IESNA model and measured values of the horizontal and vertical illuminance, and a regression model with an acceptable linear correlation is obtained. The resultant illuminance frequency curves are useful for estimating daylight availability on south facing surfaces in Tehran. In addition, the relationship between indirect vertical illuminance and the corresponding global horizontal illuminance is analyzed. A simple parametric equation is proposed in order to predict the vertical illumination on a shaded south facing surface. The equation correlates the ratio between the vertical and horizontal illuminance to the solar altitude and is used with another relationship for prediction of the vertical illuminance. Both equations show good agreement, which allows for calculation of indirect vertical illuminance on a south facing surface at any time throughout the year.

Keywords: Tehran daylight availability, horizontal illuminance, vertical illuminance, diffuse illuminance.

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7725 Development of Logic Model for R&D Program Plan Analysis in Preliminary Feasibility Study

Authors: Hyun-Kyu Kang

Abstract:

The Korean Government has applied the preliminary feasibility study to new government R&D program plans as a part of an evaluation system for R&D programs. The preliminary feasibility study for the R&D program is composed of 3 major criteria such as technological, policy and economic analysis. The program logic model approach is used as a part of the technological analysis in the preliminary feasibility study. We has developed and improved the R&D program logic model. The logic model is a very useful tool for evaluating R&D program plans. Using a logic model, we can generally identify important factors of the R&D program plan, analyze its logic flow and find the disconnection or jump in the logic flow among components of the logic model.

Keywords: Preliminary feasibility study, R&D program logic model, technological analysis.

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7724 An Improved Model for Prediction of the Effective Thermal Conductivity of Nanofluids

Authors: K. Abbaspoursani, M. Allahyari, M. Rahmani

Abstract:

Thermal conductivity is an important characteristic of a nanofluid in laminar flow heat transfer. This paper presents an improved model for the prediction of the effective thermal conductivity of nanofluids based on dimensionless groups. The model expresses the thermal conductivity of a nanofluid as a function of the thermal conductivity of the solid and liquid, their volume fractions and particle size. The proposed model includes a parameter which accounts for the interfacial shell, brownian motion, and aggregation of particle. The validation of the model is verified by applying the results obtained by the experiments of Tio2-water and Al2o3-water nanofluids.

Keywords: Critical particle size, nanofluid, model, and thermal conductivity.

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7723 A Holistic Approach for Technical Product Optimization

Authors: H. Lang, M. Bader, A. Buchroithner

Abstract:

Holistic methods covering the development process as a whole – e.g. systems engineering – have established themselves in product design. However, technical product optimization, representing improvements in efficiency and/or minimization of loss, usually applies to single components of a system. A holistic approach is being defined based on a hierarchical point of view of systems engineering. This is subsequently presented using the example of an electromechanical flywheel energy storage system for automotive applications.

Keywords: Design, product development, product optimization, systems engineering, flywheel energy storage.

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7722 Numerical Investigation of Instabilities in Free Shear Layer Produced by NS-DBD Actuator

Authors: Ilya Popov, Steven Hulshoff

Abstract:

A numerical investigation of the effects of nanosecond barrier discharge on the stability of a two-dimensional free shear layer is performed. The computations are carried out using a compressible Navier-Stokes algorithm coupled with a thermodynamic model of the discharge. The results show that significant increases in the shear layer-s momentum thickness and Reynolds stresses occur due to actuation. Dependence on both frequency and amplitude of actuation are considered, and a comparison is made of the computed growth rates with those predicted by linear stability theory. Amplitude and frequency ranges for the efficient promotion of shear-layer instabilities are identified.

Keywords: NS-DBD, plasma, actuator, flow control, instability, shear layer

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7721 Seismic Hazard Assessment of Offshore Platforms

Authors: F. D. Konstandakopoulou, G. A. Papagiannopoulos, N. G. Pnevmatikos, G. D. Hatzigeorgiou

Abstract:

This paper examines the effects of pile-soil-structure interaction on the dynamic response of offshore platforms under the action of near-fault earthquakes. Two offshore platforms models are investigated, one with completely fixed supports and one with piles which are clamped into deformable layered soil. The soil deformability for the second model is simulated using non-linear springs. These platform models are subjected to near-fault seismic ground motions. The role of fault mechanism on platforms’ response is additionally investigated, while the study also examines the effects of different angles of incidence of seismic records on the maximum response of each platform.

Keywords: Hazard analysis, offshore platforms, earthquakes, safety.

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7720 Authentication Analysis of the 802.11i Protocol

Authors: Zeeshan Furqan, Shahabuddin Muhammad, Ratan Guha

Abstract:

IEEE has designed 802.11i protocol to address the security issues in wireless local area networks. Formal analysis is important to ensure that the protocols work properly without having to resort to tedious testing and debugging which can only show the presence of errors, never their absence. In this paper, we present the formal verification of an abstract protocol model of 802.11i. We translate the 802.11i protocol into the Strand Space Model and then prove the authentication property of the resulting model using the Strand Space formalism. The intruder in our model is imbued with powerful capabilities and repercussions to possible attacks are evaluated. Our analysis proves that the authentication of 802.11i is not compromised in the presented model. We further demonstrate how changes in our model will yield a successful man-in-the-middle attack.

Keywords: authentication, formal analysis, formal verification, security.

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7719 Explicit Solutions and Stability of Linear Differential Equations with multiple Delays

Authors: Felix Che Shu

Abstract:

We give an explicit formula for the general solution of a one dimensional linear delay differential equation with multiple delays, which are integer multiples of the smallest delay. For an equation of this class with two delays, we derive two equations with single delays, whose stability is sufficient for the stability of the equation with two delays. This presents a new approach to the study of the stability of such systems. This approach avoids requirement of the knowledge of the location of the characteristic roots of the equation with multiple delays which are generally more difficult to determine, compared to the location of the characteristic roots of equations with a single delay.

Keywords: Delay Differential Equation, Explicit Solution, Exponential Stability, Lyapunov Exponents, Multiple Delays.

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7718 CDM Controller Order and Disturbance Rejection Ability

Authors: Jo˜ao Paulo Coelho, Wojciech Giernacki, Jos´e Boaventura-Cunha

Abstract:

The coefficient diagram method is primarily an algebraic control design method whose objective is to easily obtain a good controller with minimum user effort. As a matter of fact, if a system model, in the form of linear differential equations, is known, the user only need to define a time-constant and the controller order. The later can be established regarding the expected disturbance type via a lookup table first published by Koksal and Hamamci in 2004. However an inaccuracy in this table was detected and pointed-out in the present work. Moreover the above mentioned table was expanded in order to enclose any k order type disturbance.

Keywords: Coefficient diagram method, control system design, disturbance rejection.

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7717 Learning the Dynamics of Articulated Tracked Vehicles

Authors: Mario Gianni, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Fiora Pirri

Abstract:

In this work, we present a Bayesian non-parametric approach to model the motion control of ATVs. The motion control model is based on a Dirichlet Process-Gaussian Process (DP-GP) mixture model. The DP-GP mixture model provides a flexible representation of patterns of control manoeuvres along trajectories of different lengths and discretizations. The model also estimates the number of patterns, sufficient for modeling the dynamics of the ATV.

Keywords: Dirichlet processes, Gaussian processes, robot control learning, tracked vehicles.

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7716 Mixed Integer Programing for Multi-Tier Rebate with Discontinuous Cost Function

Authors: Y. Long, L. Liu, K. V. Branin

Abstract:

One challenge faced by procurement decision-maker during the acquisition process is how to compare similar products from different suppliers and allocate orders among different products or services. This work focuses on allocating orders among multiple suppliers considering rebate. The objective function is to minimize the total acquisition cost including purchasing cost and rebate benefit. Rebate benefit is complex and difficult to estimate at the ordering step. Rebate rules vary for different suppliers and usually change over time. In this work, we developed a system to collect the rebate policies, standardized the rebate policies and developed two-stage optimization models for ordering allocation. Rebate policy with multi-tiers is considered in modeling. The discontinuous cost function of rebate benefit is formulated for different scenarios. A piecewise linear function is used to approximate the discontinuous cost function of rebate benefit. And a Mixed Integer Programing (MIP) model is built for order allocation problem with multi-tier rebate. A case study is presented and it shows that our optimization model can reduce the total acquisition cost by considering rebate rules.

Keywords: Discontinuous cost function, mixed integer programming, optimization, procurement, rebate.

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7715 Building an e-Learning System Model with Implications for Research and Instructional Use

Authors: Kuan-Chou Chen, Keh-Wen “Carin” Chuang

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates a model of an e-Learning system based on nowadays learning theory and distant education practice. The relationships in the model are designed to be simple and functional and do not necessarily represent any particular e- Learning environments. It is meant to be a generic e-Learning system model with implications for any distant education course instructional design. It allows online instructors to move away from the discrepancy between the courses and body of knowledge. The interrelationships of four primary sectors that are at the e-Learning system are presented in this paper. This integrated model includes [1] pedagogy, [2] technology, [3] teaching, and [4] learning. There are interactions within each of these sectors depicted by system loop map.

Keywords: e-Learning system, online courses instructionaldesign, integrated model, interrelationships.

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7714 Forecasting for Financial Stock Returns Using a Quantile Function Model

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, Financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model.

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