Search results for: Performance Management and Evaluation

Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two hybrid price prediction models using artificial neural network and long short-term memory (ANN-LSTM), by Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices, traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022 and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices, and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation, and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-month prediction model is better than the 1-month prediction model; but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: Copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting.

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Authors: Isao Taguchi, Yasuo Sugai

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This paper proposes an efficient learning method for the layered neural networks based on the selection of training data and input characteristics of an output layer unit. Comparing to recent neural networks; pulse neural networks, quantum neuro computation, etc, the multilayer network is widely used due to its simple structure. When learning objects are complicated, the problems, such as unsuccessful learning or a significant time required in learning, remain unsolved. Focusing on the input data during the learning stage, we undertook an experiment to identify the data that makes large errors and interferes with the learning process. Our method devides the learning process into several stages. In general, input characteristics to an output layer unit show oscillation during learning process for complicated problems. The multi-stage learning method proposes by the authors for the function approximation problems of classifying learning data in a phased manner, focusing on their learnabilities prior to learning in the multi layered neural network, and demonstrates validity of the multi-stage learning method. Specifically, this paper verifies by computer experiments that both of learning accuracy and learning time are improved of the BP method as a learning rule of the multi-stage learning method. In learning, oscillatory phenomena of a learning curve serve an important role in learning performance. The authors also discuss the occurrence mechanisms of oscillatory phenomena in learning. Furthermore, the authors discuss the reasons that errors of some data remain large value even after learning, observing behaviors during learning.

Keywords: data selection, function approximation problem, multistage leaning, neural network, voluntary oscillation.

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Authors: Reiko Yamamoto

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This paper reports on how synchrony occurs between children and their teacher, and what prevents or facilitates synchrony. The aim of the experiment conducted in this study was to precisely analyze their movements and synchrony and reveal the process of synchrony in a real-world classroom. Specifically, the experiment was conducted for around 20 minutes during an English as a foreign language (EFL) lesson. The participants were 11 fourth-grade school children and their classroom teacher in a public elementary school in Japan. Previous researchers assert that synchrony causes the state of flow in a class. For checking the level of flow, Short Flow State Scale (SFSS) was adopted. The experimental procedure had four steps: 1) The teacher read aloud the first half of an English storybook to the children. Both the teacher and the children were at their own desks. 2) The children were subjected to an SFSS check. 3) The teacher read aloud the remaining half of the storybook to the children. She made the children remove their desks before reading. 4) The children were again subjected to an SFSS check. The movements of all participants were recorded with a video camera. From the movement analysis, it was found that the children synchronized better with the teacher in Step 3 than in Step 1, and that the teacher’s movement became free and outstanding without a desk. This implies that the desk acted as a barrier between the children and the teacher. Removal of this barrier resulted in the children’s reactions becoming synchronized with those of the teacher. The SFSS results proved that the children experienced more flow without a barrier than with a barrier. Apparently, synchrony is what caused flow or social emotions in the classroom. The main conclusion is that synchrony leads to cognitive outcomes such as children’s academic performance in EFL learning.

Keywords: Movement synchrony, teacher–child relationships, English as a foreign language, EFL learning.

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Authors: Prapoj Na Bangchang

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The research aimed to study the satisfaction of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University students towards the university radio station which broadcasts in both analog on FM 97.25 MHz and online via the university website. The sample used in this study consists of undergraduate students year 1 to year 4 from 6 faculties i.e. Faculty of Education, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Management Science and Faculty of Industrial Technology, and Faculty of Fine and Applied Arts totaling 200 students. The tools used for data collection is survey. Data analysis applied statistics that are percentage, mean and standard deviation. The results showed that Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University students were satisfied to the place of listening service, followed by channels of broadcasting that cover both analog signals on 97.25 MHz FM and online via the Internet. However, the satisfaction level of the content offered was very low. Most of the students want the station to improve the content. Entertainment content was requested the most, followed by sports content. The lowest satisfaction level is with the broadcasting quality through analog signal. Most students asked the station to improve on the issue. However, overall, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University students were satisfied with the university radio station broadcasted online via the university website.

Keywords: Satisfaction, students, radio station, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University.

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Authors: K. Rajasekaran, Kannan Balasubramanian

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A sensory network consists of multiple detection locations called sensor nodes, each of which is tiny, featherweight and portable. A single path routing protocols in wireless sensor network can lead to holes in the network, since only the nodes present in the single path is used for the data transmission. Apart from the advantages like reduced computation, complexity and resource utilization, there are some drawbacks like throughput, increased traffic load and delay in data delivery. Therefore, multipath routing protocols are preferred for WSN. Distributing the traffic among multiple paths increases the network lifetime. We propose a scheme, for the data to be transmitted through a dominant path to save energy. In order to obtain a high delivery ratio, a basic route reconstruction protocol is utilized to reconstruct the path whenever a failure is detected. A basic reconstruction routing (BRR) algorithm is proposed, in which a node can leap over path failure by using the already existing routing information from its neighbourhood while the composed data is transmitted from the source to the sink. In order to save the energy and attain high data delivery ratio, data is transmitted along a multiple path, which is achieved by BRR algorithm whenever a failure is detected. Further, the analysis of how the proposed protocol overcomes the drawback of the existing protocols is presented. The performance of our protocol is compared to AOMDV and energy efficient node-disjoint multipath routing protocol (EENDMRP). The system is implemented using NS-2.34. The simulation results show that the proposed protocol has high delivery ratio with low energy consumption.

Keywords: Multipath routing, WSN, energy efficient routing, alternate route, assured data delivery.

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Authors: Mohammad R. Kavian Nezhad, Carlos F. Lange, Brian A. Fleck

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This research presents the validation study of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model developed to simulate the scalar dispersion emitted from rooftop sources around the buildings at the University of Alberta North Campus. The ANSYS CFX code was used to perform the numerical simulation of the wind regime and pollutant dispersion by solving the 3D steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations on a building-scale high-resolution grid. The validation study was performed in two steps. First, the CFD model performance in 24 cases (eight wind directions and three wind speeds) was evaluated by comparing the predicted flow fields with the available data from the previous measurement campaign designed at the North Campus, using the standard deviation method (SDM), while the estimated results of the numerical model showed maximum average percent errors of approximately 53% and 37% for wind incidents from the North and Northwest, respectively. Good agreement with the measurements was observed for the other six directions, with an average error of less than 30%. In the second step, the reliability of the implemented turbulence model, numerical algorithm, modeling techniques, and the grid generation scheme was further evaluated using the Mock Urban Setting Test (MUST) dispersion dataset. Different statistical measures, including the fractional bias (FB), the mean geometric bias (MG), and the normalized mean square error (NMSE), were used to assess the accuracy of the predicted dispersion field. Our CFD results are in very good agreement with the field measurements.

Keywords: CFD, plume dispersion, complex urban geometry, validation study, wind flow.

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Authors: Suman Senapati, Goutam Saha

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Real world Speaker Identification (SI) application differs from ideal or laboratory conditions causing perturbations that leads to a mismatch between the training and testing environment and degrade the performance drastically. Many strategies have been adopted to cope with acoustical degradation; wavelet based Bayesian marginal model is one of them. But Bayesian marginal models cannot model the inter-scale statistical dependencies of different wavelet scales. Simple nonlinear estimators for wavelet based denoising assume that the wavelet coefficients in different scales are independent in nature. However wavelet coefficients have significant inter-scale dependency. This paper enhances this inter-scale dependency property by a Circularly Symmetric Probability Density Function (CS-PDF) related to the family of Spherically Invariant Random Processes (SIRPs) in Log Gabor Wavelet (LGW) domain and corresponding joint shrinkage estimator is derived by Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimator. A framework is proposed based on these to denoise speech signal for automatic speaker identification problems. The robustness of the proposed framework is tested for Text Independent Speaker Identification application on 100 speakers of POLYCOST and 100 speakers of YOHO speech database in three different noise environments. Experimental results show that the proposed estimator yields a higher improvement in identification accuracy compared to other estimators on popular Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) based speaker model and Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficient (MFCC) features.

Keywords: Speaker Identification, Log Gabor Wavelet, Bayesian Bivariate Estimator, Circularly Symmetric Probability Density Function, SIRP.

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Authors: Alireza Arab, Morteza Elsa, Amirhossein Moghanian

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In this study, experiments were carried out to achieve a promising multifunctional and modified silicate based bioactive glass (BG). The main aim of the study was investigating the effect of lithium (Li) and magnesium (Mg) substitution, on in vitro bioactivity of substituted-58S BG. Moreover, it is noteworthy to state that modified BGs were synthesized in 60SiO₂–(36-x)CaO–4P₂O₅–(x)Li₂O and 60SiO₂–(36-x)CaO–4P₂O₅–(x)MgO (where x = 0, 5, 10 mol.%) quaternary systems, by sol-gel method. Their performance was investigated through different aspects such as biocompatibility, antibacterial activity as well as their effect on alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity, and proliferation of MC3T3 cells. The antibacterial efficiency was evaluated against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bacteria. To do so, CaO was substituted with Li₂O and MgO up to 10 mol % in 58S-BGs and then samples were immersed in simulated body fluid up to 14 days and then, characterized by X-ray diffraction, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry, and scanning electron microscopy. Results indicated that this modification led to a retarding effect on in vitro hydroxyapatite (HA) formation due to the lower supersaturation degree for nucleation of HA compared with 58s-BG. Meanwhile, magnesium revealed further pronounced effect. The 3-(4,5 dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5 diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) and ALP analysis illustrated that substitutions of both Li₂O and MgO, up to 5 mol %, had increasing effect on biocompatibility and stimulating proliferation of the pre-osteoblast MC3T3 cells in comparison to the control specimen. Regarding to bactericidal efficiency, the substitution of either Li or Mg for Ca in the 58s BG composition led to statistically significant difference in antibacterial behaviors of substituted-BGs. Meanwhile, the sample containing 5 mol % CaO/Li₂O substitution (BG-5L) was selected as a multifunctional biomaterial in bone repair/regeneration due to the improved biocompatibility, enhanced ALP activity and antibacterial efficiency among all of the synthesized L-BGs and M-BGs.

Keywords: Alkaline, alkaline earth, bioactivity, biomedical applications, sol-gel processes.

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Authors: Ghias ul Hassan, Bilal Nasir, Israr ul Haque, ShafiqAwan, Ghias Un NabiTayyab, S. Hassan Akhtar Bokhari, Khawar Saeed, Qazi Masroor

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Introduction: Pegylated Interferon and Ribavirin combination is standard of care in the management of chronic HCV infected patients. Efficacy of the therapy is judged by the ability to achieve biochemical and virological response as judged by RVR, EVR, ETR and SVR.Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of newly marketed biosimilar Pegylated Interferon Alpha 40KD (Peg INF) in chronic HCV patients. Materials and methods: This was observational, prospective multicentre study to evaluate the ability of biosimilar pegylated interferon alfa 2a (40KD) along with Ribavirin (weight based) to achieve SVR. The enrolled patients were separated into Naïve (A), Relapsers (B) and Non Responders(C) based on the previous history of interferon exposure and its response. The RGT was followed on ALT and RVR, EVR, ETR and SVR.Results:As per protocol analysis estimated SVR for three groups is 86.6% for naïve, 89.4% for relapsers and 52.4% for non-responders to standard interferon. Conclusion: It is concluded that Bio-similar pegylated interferon alfa-2a (40kD) along with Ribavirin has good anti-viral efficacy in Naïve, Relapsers and Non-responders to standard IFN of chronic HCV infected patients requiring treatment.

Keywords: SVR (Sustained virological response), NR (Nonresponders), Pegylated Interferon.

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Authors: Nhon Do, Thuong Huynh, An Pham

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Nowadays, organizing a repository of documents and resources for learning on a special field as Information Technology (IT), together with search techniques based on domain knowledge or document-s content is an urgent need in practice of teaching, learning and researching. There have been several works related to methods of organization and search by content. However, the results are still limited and insufficient to meet user-s demand for semantic document retrieval. This paper presents a solution for the organization of a repository that supports semantic representation and processing in search. The proposed solution is a model which integrates components such as an ontology describing domain knowledge, a database of document repository, semantic representation for documents and a file system; with problems, semantic processing techniques and advanced search techniques based on measuring semantic similarity. The solution is applied to build a IT learning materials management system of a university with semantic search function serving students, teachers, and manager as well. The application has been implemented, tested at the University of Information Technology, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam and has achieved good results.

Keywords: document retrieval system, knowledgerepresentation, document representation, semantic search, ontology.

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Authors: A. Montazar

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The great challenge of the agricultural sector is to produce more crop from less water, which can be achieved by increasing crop water productivity. The modernization of the irrigation systems offers a number of possibilities to expand the economic productivity of water and improve the virtual water status. The objective of the present study is to assess the global water productivity (GWP) within the major irrigation command areas of I.R. Iran. For this purpose, fourteen irrigation command areas where located in different areas of Iran were selected. In order to calculate the global water productivity of irrigation command areas, all data on the delivered water to cropping pattern, cultivated area, crops water requirement, and yield production rate during 2002-2006 were gathered. In each of the command areas it seems that the cultivated crops have a higher amount of virtual water and thus can be replaced by crops with less virtual water. This is merely suggested due to crop water consumption and at the time of replacing crops, economic value as well as cultural and political factors must be considered. The results indicated that the lowest GWP belongs to Mahyar and Borkhar irrigation areas, 0.24 kg m-3, and the highest is that of the Dez irrigation area, 0.81 kg m-3. The findings demonstrated that water management in the two irrigation areas is just efficient. The difference in the GWP of irrigation areas is due to variations in the cropping pattern, amount of crop productions, in addition to the effective factors in the water use efficiency in the irrigation areas.

Keywords: Iran, Irrigation command area, Water productivity, Virtual water.

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Authors: D. R. Delgado Sobrino, R. Holubek, R. Ružarovský

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In the past years, the world has witnessed significant work in the field of Manufacturing. Special efforts have been made in the implementation of new technologies, management and control systems, among many others which have all evolved the field. Closely following all this, due to the scope of new projects and the need of turning the existing flexible ideas into more autonomous and intelligent ones, i.e.: moving toward a more intelligent manufacturing, the present paper emerges with the main aim of contributing to the analysis and a few customization issues of a new iCIM 3000 system at the IPSAM. In this process, special emphasis in made on the material flow problem. For this, besides offering a description and analysis of the system and its main parts, also some tips on how to define other possible alternative material flow scenarios and a partial analysis of the combinatorial nature of the problem are offered as well. All this is done with the intentions of relating it with the use of simulation tools, for which these have been briefly addressed with a special focus on the Witness simulation package. For a better comprehension, the previous elements are supported by a few figures and expressions which would help obtaining necessary data. Such data and others will be used in the future, when simulating the scenarios in the search of the best material flow configurations.

Keywords: Flexible/Intelligent assembly/disassembly cell (F/IA/DC), Flexible/Intelligent Manufacturing Systems/Cell (F/IMS/C), Material Flow Optimization/Combinations/Design (MFO/C/D).

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Authors: Camila Bernardon, Diana Lemos, Mario Garcia, Thiago Souto, Bruno Bonifacio

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In the current technological market environment, ensuring the quality of new products has become a complex challenge. In this scenario, companies have been investing in solutions that aim to reduce the execution time of software testing and lead to cost efficiency. However, companies that have a complex and specialized testing environment usually face barriers related to costly testing processes, especially in distributed settings. Sidia Institute of Technology works on research and development for the Android platform for mobile devices in Latin America. As we work in a global software development (GSD) scope, we have faced barriers caused by failures detected lately that have caused delays in the homologation release process on Android projects. Thus, we adopt an Internal Review process, using as an alternative to reduce these failures. In this paper it was presented the experience of a homologation team adopting an Internal Review process in order to increase the performance through of improving test efficiency. Using this approach, it was possible to realize a substantial improvement in quality, reliability and timeliness of our deliveries. Through the quantitative analyses, it was possible identify a positive growth in homologation efficiency of 6% after adoption of the process. In addition, we performed a qualitative analysis from the collected data through an online questionnaire. In particular, results show that association between failure reduction and review process adoption provides the most quality that has a positive effect on project milestones. We hope this report can be helpful to other companies and the scientific community to improve their process thereby increasing competitive advantages.

Keywords: Android, GSD, improvement quality process, mobile products.

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Authors: M. Almutairi, S. Hadjiloucas

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The harmonic distortion of voltage is important in relation to power quality due to the interaction between the large diffusion of non-linear and time-varying single-phase and three-phase loads with power supply systems. However, harmonic distortion levels can be reduced by improving the design of polluting loads or by applying arrangements and adding filters. The application of passive filters is an effective solution that can be used to achieve harmonic mitigation mainly because filters offer high efficiency, simplicity, and are economical. Additionally, possible different frequency response characteristics can work to achieve certain required harmonic filtering targets. With these ideas in mind, the objective of this paper is to determine what size single tuned passive filters work in distribution networks best, in order to economically limit violations caused at a given point of common coupling (PCC). This article suggests that a single tuned passive filter could be employed in typical industrial power systems. Furthermore, constrained optimization can be used to find the optimal sizing of the passive filter in order to reduce both harmonic voltage and harmonic currents in the power system to an acceptable level, and, thus, improve the load power factor. The optimization technique works to minimize voltage total harmonic distortions (VTHD) and current total harmonic distortions (ITHD), where maintaining a given power factor at a specified range is desired. According to the IEEE Standard 519, both indices are viewed as constraints for the optimal passive filter design problem. The performance of this technique will be discussed using numerical examples taken from previous publications.

Keywords: Harmonics, passive filter, power factor, power quality.

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Authors: S. K. Fasogbon

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Chaotic system may lead to instability, extreme sensitivity and performance reduction in control systems. It is therefore important to understand the causes of such undesirable characteristics in control system especially in the automobile fuel gauges. This is because without accurate fuel gauges in automobile systems, it will be difficult if not impossible to embark on a journey whether during odd hours of the day or where fuel is difficult to obtain. To this end, this work studied the impacts of fuel tank rust and faulty component of fuel gauge system (voltage stabilizer) on the chaotic characteristics of fuel gauges. The results obtained were analyzed using Graph iSOFT package. Over the range of experiments conducted, the results obtained showed that rust effect of the fuel tank would alter the flow density, consequently the fluid pressure and ultimately the flow velocity of the fuel. The responses of the fuel gauge pointer to the faulty voltage stabilizer were erratic causing noticeable instability of gauge measurands indicated. The experiment also showed that the fuel gauge performed optimally by indicating the highest degree of accuracy when combined the effect of rust free tank and non-faulty voltage stabilizer conditions (± 6.75% measurand error) as compared to only the rust free tank situation (± 15% measurand error) and only the non-faulty voltage stabilizer condition (± 40% measurand error). The study concludes that both the fuel tank rust and the faulty voltage stabilizer gauge component have a significant effect on the sensitivity of fuel gauge and its accuracy ultimately. Also, by the reason of literature, our findings can also be said to be valid for all other fluid meters and gauges applicable in plant machineries and most hydraulic systems.

Keywords: Chaotic system, degree of accuracy, measurand, sensitivity of fuel gauge.

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Authors: Ali Vaseghi Ardekani, Hamid Reza Forutan, Amir Habibi, Ali Reza Rajabi, Hasan Adloo

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Distributed generation units (DGs) are grid-connected or stand-alone electric generation units located within the electric distribution system at or near the end user. It is generally accepted that centralized electric power plants will remain the major source of the electric power supply for the near future. DGs, however, can complement central power by providing incremental capacity to the utility grid or to an end user. This paper presents an efficient power dispatching model for hybrid wind-Solar power generation system, to satisfy some essential requirements, such as dispersed electric power demand, electric power quality and reducing generation cost and so on. In this paper, presented some elements of the main parts in the hybrid system; and then made fundamental dispatching strategies according to different situations; then pointed out four improving measures to improve genetic algorithm, such as: modify the producing way of selection probability, improve the way of crossover, protect excellent chromosomes, and change mutation range and so on. Finally, propose a technique for solving the unit's commitment for dispatching problem based on an improved genetic algorithm.

Keywords: Power Quality, Wind-Solar System, Genetic Algorithm, Hybrid System.

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Authors: Mohammed A. Alolfe, Abou-Bakr M. Youssef, Yasser M. Kadah

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The proper design of RF pulses in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has a direct impact on the quality of acquired images, and is needed for many applications. Several techniques have been proposed to obtain the RF pulse envelope given the desired slice profile. Unfortunately, these techniques do not take into account the limitations of practical implementation such as limited amplitude resolution. Moreover, implementing constraints for special RF pulses on most techniques is not possible. In this work, we propose to develop an approach for designing optimal RF pulses under theoretically any constraints. The new technique will pose the RF pulse design problem as a combinatorial optimization problem and uses efficient techniques from this area such as genetic algorithms (GA) to solve this problem. In particular, an objective function will be proposed as the norm of the difference between the desired profile and the one obtained from solving the Bloch equations for the current RF pulse design values. The proposed approach will be verified using analytical solution based RF simulations and compared to previous methods such as Shinnar-Le Roux (SLR) method, and analysis, selected, and tested the options and parameters that control the Genetic Algorithm (GA) can significantly affect its performance to get the best improved results and compared to previous works in this field. The results show a significant improvement over conventional design techniques, select the best options and parameters for GA to get most improvement over the previous works, and suggest the practicality of using of the new technique for most important applications as slice selection for large flip angles, in the area of unconventional spatial encoding, and another clinical use.

Keywords: Selective excitation, magnetic resonance imaging, combinatorial optimization, pulse design.

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Authors: Anastasiia Shuba, Tatiana Kuchmenko, Umarkhanov Ruslan, Bogdanova Ekaterina

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The development of new sensitive coatings for sensors is one of the key directions in the development of sensor technologies. Recently, there has been a trend towards the creation of multicomponent coatings for sensors, which make it possible to increase the sensitivity, and specificity, and improve the performance properties of sensors. When analyzing samples with a complex matrix of biological origin, the inclusion of micelles of bioactive substances (amino and nucleic acids, peptides, proteins) in the composition of the sensor coating can also increase useful analytical information. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the analytical characteristics of composite coatings of piezoelectric quartz sensors based on medium-molecular viscous sorbents with incorporated micellar casein concentrate during the sorption of vapors of volatile organic compounds. The sorption properties of the coatings were studied by piezoelectric quartz microbalance. Macromolecular compounds (dicyclohexyl-18-crown-6, triton X-100, lanolin, micellar casein concentrate) were used as sorbents. Highly volatile organic compounds of various classes (alcohols, acids, aldehydes, esters) and water were selected as test substances. It has been established that composite coatings of sensors with the inclusion of micellar casein are more stable and selective to vapors of highly volatile compounds than to water vapors. The method and technique of forming a composite coating using molecular viscous sorbents does not affect the kinetic features of VOC sorption. When casein micelles are used, the features of kinetic sorption depend on the matrix of the coating.

Keywords: Composite coating, piezoelectric quartz microbalance, sensor, volatile organic compounds.

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Authors: Cheng Zeng, George Michailidis, Hitoshi Iyatomi, Leo L Duan

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The conditional density characterizes the distribution of a response variable y given other predictor x, and plays a key role in many statistical tasks, including classification and outlier detection. Although there has been abundant work on the problem of Conditional Density Estimation (CDE) for a low-dimensional response in the presence of a high-dimensional predictor, little work has been done for a high-dimensional response such as images. The promising performance of normalizing flow (NF) neural networks in unconditional density estimation acts a motivating starting point. In this work, we extend NF neural networks when external x is present. Specifically, they use the NF to parameterize a one-to-one transform between a high-dimensional y and a latent z that comprises two components [zP , zN]. The zP component is a low-dimensional subvector obtained from the posterior distribution of an elementary predictive model for x, such as logistic/linear regression. The zN component is a high-dimensional independent Gaussian vector, which explains the variations in y not or less related to x. Unlike existing CDE methods, the proposed approach, coined Augmented Posterior CDE (AP-CDE), only requires a simple modification on the common normalizing flow framework, while significantly improving the interpretation of the latent component, since zP represents a supervised dimension reduction. In image analytics applications, AP-CDE shows good separation of x-related variations due to factors such as lighting condition and subject id, from the other random variations. Further, the experiments show that an unconditional NF neural network, based on an unsupervised model of z, such as Gaussian mixture, fails to generate interpretable results.

Keywords: Conditional density estimation, image generation, normalizing flow, supervised dimension reduction.

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Authors: Anita Khadka, Gregory Epiphaniou, Carsten Maple

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There is a dramatic surge in the adoption of Machine Learning (ML) techniques in many areas, including the nuclear industry (such as fault diagnosis and fuel management in nuclear power plants), autonomous systems (including self-driving vehicles), space systems (space debris recovery, for example), medical surgery, network intrusion detection, malware detection, to name a few. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a part of everyday modern human life. To date, the predominant focus has been developing underpinning ML algorithms that can improve accuracy, while factors such as resiliency and robustness of algorithms have been largely overlooked. If an adversarial attack is able to compromise the learning method or data, the consequences can be fatal, especially but not exclusively in safety-critical applications. In this paper, we present an in-depth analysis of five adversarial attacks and two defence methods on a crack detection ML model. Our analysis shows that it can be dangerous to adopt ML techniques without rigorous testing, since they may be vulnerable to adversarial attacks, especially in security-critical areas such as the nuclear industry. We observed that while the adopted defence methods can effectively defend against different attacks, none of them could protect against all five adversarial attacks entirely.

Keywords: Resilient Machine Learning, attacks, defences, nuclear industry, crack detection.

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Authors: M. Ferguson, T. Konkova, I. Violatos

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Microstructure analysis of additively manufactured (AM) materials is an important step in understanding the interrelationship between mechanical properties and materials performance. Literature on the effect of a laser-based AM process parameters on the microstructure in the substrate-deposit interface is limited. The interface region, the adjoining area of substrate and deposit, is characterized by the presence of the fusion zone (FZ) and heat affected zone (HAZ) experiencing rapid thermal gyrations resulting in thermal induced transformations. Inconel 718 was utilized as a work material for both the substrate and deposit. Three blocks of Inconel 718 material were deposited by Direct Energy Deposition (DED) using three different laser powers, 550W, 750W and 950W, respectively. A coupled thermo-mechanical transient approach was utilized to correlate temperature history to the evolution of microstructure. Thermal history of the deposition process was monitored with the thermocouples installed inside the substrate material. Interface region of the blocks were analysed with Optical Microscopy (OM) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) including electron back-scattered diffraction (EBSD) technique. Laser power was found to influence the dissolution of intermetallic precipitated phases in the substrate and grain growth in the interface region. Microstructure and thermal history data were utilized to draw conclusive comparisons between the investigated process parameters.

Keywords: Additive manufacturing, direct energy deposition, electron back-scatter diffraction, finite element analysis, Inconel 718, microstructure, optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, substrate-deposit interface region.

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Authors: J. K. Visser, H. T. Malan

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A need exists to identify the sources of risks associated with the process automation systems within petrochemical companies or similar energy related industries. These companies use many different process automation technologies in its value chain. A crucial part of the process automation system is the information technology component featuring in the supervisory control layer. The ever-changing technology within the process automation layers and the rate at which it advances pose a risk to safe and predictable automation system performance. The age of the automation equipment also provides challenges to the operations and maintenance managers of the plant due to obsolescence and unavailability of spare parts. The main objective of this research was to determine the risk sources associated with the equipment that is part of the process automation systems. A secondary objective was to establish whether technology managers and technicians were aware of the risks and share the same viewpoint on the importance of the risks associated with automation systems. A conceptual model for risk sources of automation systems was formulated from models and frameworks in literature. This model comprised six categories of risk which forms the basis for identifying specific risks. This model was used to develop a questionnaire that was sent to 172 instrument technicians and technology managers in the company to obtain primary data. 75 completed and useful responses were received. These responses were analyzed statistically to determine the highest risk sources and to determine whether there was difference in opinion between technology managers and technicians. The most important risks that were revealed in this study are: 1) the lack of skilled technicians, 2) integration capability of third-party system software, 3) reliability of the process automation hardware, 4) excessive costs pertaining to performing maintenance and migrations on process automation systems, and 5) requirements of having third-party communication interfacing compatibility as well as real-time communication networks.

Keywords: Distributed control system, identification of risks, information technology, process automation system.

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Authors: R. M. Kashim

Abstract:

The study investigated primary school teachers’ conceptual and procedural knowledge of rational numbers and its effects on pupil’s achievement in rational numbers. Specifically, primary school teachers’ level of conceptual knowledge about rational numbers, primary school teachers’ level of procedural knowledge about rational numbers, and the effects of teachers conceptual and procedural knowledge on their pupils understanding of rational numbers in primary schools is investigated. The study was carried out in Bauchi metropolis in the Bauchi state of Nigeria. The design of the study was a multi-stage design. The first stage was a descriptive design. The second stage involves a pre-test, post-test only quasi-experimental design. Two instruments were used for the data collection in the study. These were Conceptual and Procedural knowledge test (CPKT) and Rational number achievement test (RAT), the population of the study comprises of three (3) mathematics teachers’ holders of Nigerian Certificate in Education (NCE) teaching primary six and 210 pupils in their intact classes were used for the study. The data collected were analyzed using mean, standard deviation, analysis of variance, analysis of covariance and t- test. The findings indicated that the pupils taught rational number by a teacher that has high conceptual and procedural knowledge understand and perform better than the pupil taught by a teacher who has low conceptual and procedural knowledge of rational number. It is, therefore, recommended that teachers in primary schools should be encouraged to enrich their conceptual knowledge of rational numbers. Also, the superiority performance of teachers in procedural knowledge in rational number should not become an obstruction of understanding. Teachers Conceptual and procedural knowledge of rational numbers should be balanced so that primary school pupils will have a view of better teaching and learning of rational number in our contemporary schools.

Keywords: Achievement, conceptual knowledge, procedural knowledge, rational numbers.

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Authors: Alexandros Lioulemes, Michail Theofanidis, Varun Kanal, Konstantinos Tsiakas, Maher Abujelala, Chris Collander, William B. Townsend, Angie Boisselle, Fillia Makedon

Abstract:

This paper presents a home-based robot-rehabilitation instrument, called ”MAGNI Dynamics”, that utilized a vision-based kinematic/dynamic module and an adaptive haptic feedback controller. The system is expected to provide personalized rehabilitation by adjusting its resistive and supportive behavior according to a fuzzy intelligence controller that acts as an inference system, which correlates the user’s performance to different stiffness factors. The vision module uses the Kinect’s skeletal tracking to monitor the user’s effort in an unobtrusive and safe way, by estimating the torque that affects the user’s arm. The system’s torque estimations are justified by capturing electromyographic data from primitive hand motions (Shoulder Abduction and Shoulder Forward Flexion). Moreover, we present and analyze how the Barrett WAM generates a force-field with a haptic controller to support or challenge the users. Experiments show that by shifting the proportional value, that corresponds to different stiffness factors of the haptic path, can potentially help the user to improve his/her motor skills. Finally, potential areas for future research are discussed, that address how a rehabilitation robotic framework may include multisensing data, to improve the user’s recovery process.

Keywords: Human-robot interaction, kinect, kinematics, dynamics, haptic control, rehabilitation robotics, artificial intelligence.

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Authors: Marine Segui, Matthieu Mantilla, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez

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This research is the part of a major project at the Research Laboratory in Active Controls, Avionics and Aeroservoelasticity (LARCASE) aiming to improve a Cessna Citation X aircraft cruise performance with an application of the morphing wing technology on its horizontal tail. However, the horizontal stabilizer of the Cessna Citation X turns around its span axis with an angle between -8 and 2 degrees. Within this range, the horizontal stabilizer generates certainly some unwanted drag. To cancel this drag, the LARCASE proposes to trim the aircraft with a horizontal stabilizer equipped by a morphing wing technology. This technology aims to optimize aerodynamic performances by changing the conventional horizontal tail shape during the flight. As a consequence, this technology will be able to generate enough lift on the horizontal tail to balance the aircraft without an unwanted drag generation. To conduct this project, an accurate aerodynamic model of the horizontal tail is firstly required. This aerodynamic model will finally allow precise comparison between a conventional horizontal tail and a morphed horizontal tail results. This paper presents how this aerodynamic model was designed. In this way, it shows how the 2D geometry of the horizontal tail was collected and how the unknown airfoil’s shape of the horizontal tail has been recovered. Finally, the complete horizontal tail airfoil shape was found and a comparison between aerodynamic polar of the real horizontal tail and the horizontal tail found in this paper shows a maximum difference of 0.04 on the lift or the drag coefficient which is very good. Aerodynamic polar data of the aircraft horizontal tail are obtained from the CAE Inc. level D research aircraft flight simulator of the Cessna Citation X.

Keywords: Aerodynamic, Cessna, Citation X, coefficient, Datcom, drag, lift, longitudinal, model, OpenVSP.

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Authors: Satish Kumar, Arun Kumar Gupta, Pankaj Chandna

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In the modern manufacturing systems, the use of thermal cutting techniques using oxyfuel, plasma and laser have become indispensable for the shape forming of high quality complex components; however, the conventional chip removal production techniques still have its widespread space in the manufacturing industry. Both these types of machining operations require the positioning of end effector tool at the edge where the cutting process commences. This repositioning of the cutting tool in every machining operation is repeated several times and is termed as non-productive time or airtime motion. Minimization of this non-productive machining time plays an important role in mass production with high speed machining. As, the tool moves from one region to the other by rapid movement and visits a meticulous region once in the whole operation, hence the non-productive time can be minimized by synchronizing the tool movements. In this work, this problem is being formulated as a general travelling salesman problem (TSP) and a genetic algorithm approach has been applied to solve the same. For improving the efficiency of the algorithm, the GA has been hybridized with a noble special heuristic and simulating annealing (SA). In the present work a novel heuristic in the combination of GA has been developed for synchronization of toolpath movements during repositioning of the tool. A comparative analysis of new Meta heuristic techniques with simple genetic algorithm has been performed. The proposed metaheuristic approach shows better performance than simple genetic algorithm for minimization of nonproductive toolpath length. Also, the results obtained with the help of hybrid simulated annealing genetic algorithm (HSAGA) are also found better than the results using simple genetic algorithm only.

Keywords: Non-productive time, Airtime, 2.5 D milling, Laser cutting, Metaheuristic, Genetic Algorithm, Simulated Annealing.

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Authors: S. Da Costa, D. Páez, F. Sánchez

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We examine the causal role of positive affect on creativity, the association of creativity or innovation in the ideation phase with functional emotional regulation, successful adjustment to stress and dispositional emotional creativity, as well as the predictive role of creativity for positive emotions and social adjustment. The study examines the effects of modification of positive affect on creativity. Participants write three poems, narrate an infatuation episode, answer a scale of personal growth after this episode and perform a creativity task, answer a flow scale after creativity task and fill a dispositional emotional creativity scale. High and low positive effect was induced by asking subjects to write three poems about high and low positive connotation stimuli. In a neutral condition, tasks were performed without previous affect induction. Subjects on the condition of high positive affect report more positive and less negative emotions, more personal growth (effect size r = .24) and their last poem was rated as more original by judges (effect size r = .33). Mediational analysis showed that positive emotions explain the influence of the manipulation on personal growth - positive affect correlates r = .33 to personal growth. The emotional creativity scale correlated to creativity scores of the creative task (r = .14), to the creativity of the narration of the infatuation episode (r = .21). Emotional creativity was also associated, during performing the creativity task, with flow (r = .27) and with affect balance (r = .26). The mediational analysis showed that emotional creativity predicts flow through positive affect. Results suggest that innovation in the phase of ideation is associated with a positive affect balance and satisfactory performance, as well as dispositional emotional creativity is adaptive.

Keywords: Affectivity, creativity, induction, innovation, psychological factors.

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Authors: Habibollah Najafi, Amir Abbas Yazdani, Hosseinali Nahavandi

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The review performed on the condition of energy consumption & rate in Iran, shows that unfortunately the subject of optimization and conservation of energy in active industries of country lacks a practical & effective method and in most factories, the energy consumption and rate is more than in similar industries of industrial countries. The increasing demand of electrical energy and the overheads which it imposes on the organization, forces companies to search for suitable approaches to optimize energy consumption and demand management. Application of value engineering techniques is among these approaches. Value engineering is considered a powerful tool for improving profitability. These tools are used for reduction of expenses, increasing profits, quality improvement, increasing market share, performing works in shorter durations, more efficient utilization of sources & etc. In this article, we shall review the subject of value engineering and its capabilities for creating effective transformations in industrial organizations, in order to reduce energy costs & the results have been investigated and described during a case study in Mazandaran wood and paper industries, the biggest consumer of energy in north of Iran, for the purpose of presenting the effects of performed tasks in optimization of energy consumption by utilizing value engineering techniques in one case study.

Keywords: Value Engineering (VE), Expense, Energy, Industrial

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Authors: T. Aydin, M. F. Alaeddinoglu

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People, throughout the history, have made estimates and inferences about the future by using their past experiences. Developing information technologies and the improvements in the database management systems make it possible to extract useful information from knowledge in hand for the strategic decisions. Therefore, different methods have been developed. Data mining by association rules learning is one of such methods. Apriori algorithm, one of the well-known association rules learning algorithms, is not commonly used in spatio-temporal data sets. However, it is possible to embed time and space features into the data sets and make Apriori algorithm a suitable data mining technique for learning spatiotemporal association rules. Lake Van, the largest lake of Turkey, is a closed basin. This feature causes the volume of the lake to increase or decrease as a result of change in water amount it holds. In this study, evaporation, humidity, lake altitude, amount of rainfall and temperature parameters recorded in Lake Van region throughout the years are used by the Apriori algorithm and a spatio-temporal data mining application is developed to identify overflows and newlyformed soil regions (underflows) occurring in the coastal parts of Lake Van. Identifying possible reasons of overflows and underflows may be used to alert the experts to take precautions and make the necessary investments.

Keywords: Apriori algorithm, association rules, data mining, spatio-temporal data.

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Authors: Komeil Valipourian, Mohsen Ramezan Shirazi, Orod Zarrin Kafsh

Abstract:

By enhancing the applicatıon of grounds for establishment and due to the lack of appropriate sites, engineers attempt to seek out a new method to reduce the weakness of soils. İn aspect of economic situation, various ways have been used to decrease the weak grounds. Because of the rapid development of infrastructural facilities, spreading the construction operation is an obligation. Furthermore, in various sites with the really bad soil situation, engineers have considered obvious problems. One of the most essential ways for developing the weak soils is stone column. Obviously, the method was introduced in France in 1830 to improve a native soil initially. Stone columns have an expanding range of usage in different rough foundation sites all over the world to increase the bearing capacity, to reduce the whole and differential settlements, to enhance the rate of consolidation, to stabilize slopes stability of embankments and to increase the liquefaction resistance as well. A recent procedure called installing vertical nails along the round stone columns in order to make better the performance of considered columns is offered. Moreover, thanks to the enhancing the nail diameter, number and embedment nail depth, the positive points of vertical circumferential nails increases. Based on the result of this study, load caring capacity will be develop with enhancing the length and the power of reinforcements in vertical encasement stone column (CESC). In this study, the main purpose is comparing two methods of stone columns (installed a nail surrounding the stone columns and using geogrid on clay) for enhancing the bearing capacity, decreasing the whole and various settlements.

Keywords: Bearing Capacity, Clay, Geogrid, Nailing, Settlements, Stone Column.

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