Search results for: life time model

Authors: Y. Harold Robinson, E. Golden Julie

Abstract:

Dynamic Routing in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) has played a significant task in research for the recent years. Energy consumption and data delivery in time are the major parameters with the usage of sensor nodes that are significant criteria for these networks. The location of sensor nodes must not be prearranged. Clustering in WSN is a key methodology which is used to enlarge the life-time of a sensor network. It consists of numerous real-time applications. The features of WSNs are minimized the consumption of energy. Soft computing techniques can be included to accomplish improved performance. This paper surveys the modern trends in routing enclose fuzzy logic and Neuro-fuzzy logic based on the clustering techniques and implements a comparative study of the numerous related methodologies.

Keywords: Wireless sensor networks, clustering, fuzzy logic, neuro-fuzzy logic, energy efficiency.

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Authors: Alemu Moges Belay

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In the 1980s, companies began to feel the effect of three major influences on their product development: newer and innovative technologies, increasing product complexity and larger organizations. And therefore companies were forced to look for new product development methods. This paper tries to focus on the two of new product development methods (DFM and CE). The aim of this paper is to see and analyze different product development methods specifically on Design for Manufacturability and Concurrent Engineering. Companies can achieve and be benefited by minimizing product life cycle, cost and meeting delivery schedule. This paper also presents simplified models that can be modified and used by different companies based on the companies- objective and requirements. Methodologies that are followed to do this research are case studies. Two companies were taken and analysed on the product development process. Historical data, interview were conducted on these companies in addition to that, Survey of literatures and previous research works on similar topics has been done during this research. This paper also tries to show the implementation cost benefit analysis and tries to calculate the implementation time. From this research, it has been found that the two companies did not achieve the delivery time to the customer. Some of most frequently coming products are analyzed and 50% to 80 % of their products are not delivered on time to the customers. The companies are following the traditional way of product development that is sequentially design and production method, which highly affect time to market. In the case study it is found that by implementing these new methods and by forming multi disciplinary team in designing and quality inspection; the company can reduce the workflow steps from 40 to 30.

Keywords: Design for manufacturability, Concurrent Engineering, Time-to-Market, Product development

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Authors: Nuran Öze

Abstract:

With the rapid changes occurring in the last twenty five years, mobile phone technology has influenced every aspect of life. Technological developments within the Internet and mobile phone areas have not only changed communication practices; it has also changed the everyday life practices of individuals. This article has focused on understanding how people’s communication practices and everyday life practices have changed with the smartphone usage. The study was conducted by using in-depth interview method and the research was conducted on twenty Turkish Cypriots who live in Northern Cyprus. According to the research results, communicating via Internet has rapidly replaced face to face communication in recent years. However, results have changed according to generations. Younger generations can easily adapt themselves to technological changes because they are already gaining everyday life practices right now. However, the older generations practices are already present in their everyday life.

Keywords: Face to face communication, internet, mobile technologies, North Cyprus.

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Authors: Ajay Shekhar Pandey, D. Singh, S. K. Sinha

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A clustering based technique has been developed and implemented for Short Term Load Forecasting, in this article. Formulation has been done using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as an objective function. Data Matrix and cluster size are optimization variables. Model designed, uses two temperature variables. This is compared with six input Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Fuzzy Inference Neural Network (FINN) for the data of the same system, for same time period. The fuzzy inference system has the network structure and the training procedure of a neural network which initially creates a rule base from existing historical load data. It is observed that the proposed clustering based model is giving better forecasting accuracy as compared to the other two methods. Test results also indicate that the RBFNN can forecast future loads with accuracy comparable to that of proposed method, where as the training time required in the case of FINN is much less.

Keywords: Load forecasting, clustering, fuzzy inference.

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Authors: Igor Astrov, Andrus Pedai

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This paper focuses on a critical component of the situational awareness (SA), the neural control of depth flight of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). Constant depth flight is a challenging but important task for AUVs to achieve high level of autonomy under adverse conditions. With the SA strategy, we proposed a multirate neural control of an AUV trajectory for a nontrivial mid-small size AUV “r2D4" stochastic model. This control system has been demonstrated and evaluated by simulation of diving maneuvers using software package Simulink. From the simulation results it can be seen that the chosen AUV model is stable in the presence of noises, and also can be concluded that the proposed research technique will be useful for fast SA of similar AUV systems in real-time search-and-rescue operations.

Keywords: Autonomous underwater vehicles, multirate systems, neurocontrollers, situational awareness.

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Authors: Sofia Stoica

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In this paper, we use historical data to predict the stock price of a tech company. To this end, we use a dataset consisting of the stock prices over the past five years of 10 major tech companies: Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, Oracle, Salesforce, and Tesla. We implemented and tested three models – a linear regressor model, a k-nearest neighbor model (KNN), and a sequential neural network – and two algorithms – Multiplicative Weight Update and AdaBoost. We found that the sequential neural network performed the best, with a testing error of 0.18%. Interestingly, the linear model performed the second best with a testing error of 0.73%. These results show that using historical data is enough to obtain high accuracies, and a simple algorithm like linear regression has a performance similar to more sophisticated models while taking less time and resources to implement.

Keywords: Finance, machine learning, opening price, stock market.

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Authors: Hitoshi Takata, Tomohiro Hachino, Masaki Horai, Kazuo Komatsu

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In this paper, we are concerned with the design and its simulation studies of a modified extremum seeking control for nonlinear systems. A standard extremum seeking control has a simple structure, but it takes a long time to reach an optimal operating point. We consider a modification of the standard extremum seeking control which is aimed to reach the optimal operating point more speedily than the standard one. In the modification, PD acceleration term is added before an integrator making a principal control, so that it enables the objects to be regulated to the optimal point smoothly. This proposed method is applied to Monod and Williams-Otto models to investigate its effectiveness. Numerical simulation results show that this modified method can improve the time response to the optimal operating point more speedily than the standard one.

Keywords: Extremum seeking control, Monod model, Williams- Otto model, PD acceleration term, Optimal operating point.

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

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Martingale model diagnostic for assessing the fit of logistic regression model to recurrent events data are studied. One way of assessing the fit is by plotting the empirical standard deviation of the standardized martingale residual processes. Here we used another diagnostic plot based on martingale residual covariance. We investigated the plot performance under several types of model misspecification. Clearly the method has correctly picked up the wrong model. Also we present a test statistic that supplement the inspection of the two diagnostic. The test statistic power agrees with what we have seen in the plots of the estimated martingale covariance.

Keywords: Covariance, logistic model, misspecification, recurrent events.

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Authors: Jolly Puri, Shiv Prasad Yadav

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Multi-component data envelopment analysis (MC-DEA) is a popular technique for measuring aggregate performance of the decision making units (DMUs) along with their components. However, the conventional MC-DEA is limited to crisp input and output data which may not always be available in exact form. In real life problems, data may be imprecise or fuzzy. Therefore, in this paper, we propose (i) a fuzzy MC-DEA (FMC-DEA) model in which shared and undesirable fuzzy resources are incorporated, (ii) the proposed FMC-DEA model is transformed into a pair of crisp models using α cut approach, (iii) fuzzy aggregate performance of a DMU and fuzzy efficiencies of components are defined to be fuzzy numbers, and (iv) a numerical example is illustrated to validate the proposed approach.

Keywords: Multi-component DEA, fuzzy multi-component DEA, fuzzy resources.

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Authors: S. Khamtree, T. Ratanawilai, C. Nuntadusit

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Rubberwood is a crucial commercial timber in Southern Thailand. All processes in a rubberwood production depend on the knowledge and expertise of the technicians, especially the drying process. This research aims to develop an empirical model for drying kinetics in rubberwood. During the experiment, the temperature of the hot air and the average air flow velocity were kept at 80-100 °C and 1.75 m/s, respectively. The moisture content in the samples was determined less than 12% in the achievement of drying basis. The drying kinetic was simulated using an empirical solver. The experimental results illustrated that the moisture content was reduced whereas the drying temperature and time were increased. The coefficient of the moisture ratio between the empirical and the experimental model was tested with three statistical parameters, R-square (R²), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Chi-square (χ²) to predict the accuracy of the parameters. The experimental moisture ratio had a good fit with the empirical model. Additionally, the results indicated that the drying of rubberwood using the Henderson and Pabis model revealed the suitable level of agreement. The result presented an excellent estimation (R² = 0.9963) for the moisture movement compared to the other models. Therefore, the empirical results were valid and can be implemented in the future experiments.

Keywords: Empirical models, hot air, moisture ratio, rubberwood.

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Authors: Kasra Ghaemi, Syeda Tasnim, Shohel Mahmud

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One of the main issues affecting the quality and shelf life of food products is temperature fluctuation during transportation and storage. Packaging plays an important role in protecting food from environmental conditions, especially thermal variations. In this study, the performance of using microencapsulated Phase Change Material (PCM) as a promising thermal buffer layer in smart food packaging is investigated. The considered insulation layer is evaluated for different thicknesses and the absorbed heat from the environment. The results are presented in terms of the melting time of PCM or provided thermal protection period.

Keywords: Food packaging, phase change material, thermal buffer, protection time.

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Authors: Nur Syibrah Muhamad Naim, Mohd Lazim Abdullah, Che Mohd Imran Che Taib, Abu OsmanMd. Tap

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Decision making preferences to certain criteria usually focus on positive degrees without considering the negative degrees. However, in real life situation, evaluation becomes more comprehensive if negative degrees are considered concurrently. Preference is expected to be more effective when considering both positive and negative degrees of preference to evaluate the best selection. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose the conflicting bifuzzy preference relations in group decision making by utilization of a novel score function. The conflicting bifuzzy preference relation is obtained by introducing some modifications on intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations. Releasing the intuitionistic condition by taking into account positive and negative degrees simultaneously and utilizing the novel score function are the main modifications to establish the proposed preference model. The proposed model is tested with a numerical example and proved to be simple and practical. The four-step decision model shows the efficiency of obtaining preference in group decision making.

Keywords: Fuzzy preference relations, score function, conflicting bifuzzy, decision making.

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Authors: G. Reinhart, S. Schindler

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Due to dynamic evolution, the ability of a manufacturing technology to produce a special product is changing. Therefore, it is essential to monitor the established techniques and processes to detect whether a company-s production will fit future circumstances. Concerning the manufacturing technology planning process, companies must decide when to change to a new technology for maintaining and increasing competitive advantages. In this context, the maturity assessment of the focused technologies is crucial. This article presents an approach for defining the maturity of a manufacturing technology from a strategic point of view. The concept is based on the approach of technology readiness level (TRL) according to NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), but also includes dynamic changes. Therefore, the model takes into account the concept of the technology life cycle. Furthermore, it enables a company to estimate the ideal date for implementation of a new manufacturing technology.

Keywords: Maturity Assessment, Manufacturing Technology Planning, Technology Life Cycle, Technology Readiness Level.

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Authors: Naiqin Feng, Yuhui Qiu, Yingshan Zhang, Fang Wang

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A logic model for analyzing complex systems- stability is very useful to many areas of sciences. In the real world, we are enlightened from some natural phenomena such as “biosphere", “food chain", “ecological balance" etc. By research and practice, and taking advantage of the orthogonality and symmetry defined by the theory of multilateral matrices, we put forward a logic analysis model of stability of complex systems with three relations, and prove it by means of mathematics. This logic model is usually successful in analyzing stability of a complex system. The structure of the logic model is not only clear and simple, but also can be easily used to research and solve many stability problems of complex systems. As an application, some examples are given.

Keywords: Complex system, logic model, relation, stability.

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Authors: Hani Shafeek, Muhammed Marsudi

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The purpose of this work is examining the multiproduct multi-stage in a battery production line. To improve the performances of an assembly production line by determine the efficiency of each workstation. Data collected from every workstation. The data are throughput rate, number of operator, and number of parts that arrive and leaves during part processing. Data for the number of parts that arrives and leaves are collected at least at the amount of ten samples to make the data is possible to be analyzed by Chi-Squared Goodness Test and queuing theory. Measures of this model served as the comparison with the standard data available in the company. Validation of the task time value resulted by comparing it with the task time value based on the company database. Some performance factors for the multi-product multi-stage in a battery production line in this work are shown. The efficiency in each workstation was also shown. Total production time to produce each part can be determined by adding the total task time in each workstation. To reduce the queuing time and increase the efficiency based on the analysis any probably improvement should be done. One probably action is by increasing the number of operators how manually operate this workstation.

Keywords: Production line, manufacturing, performance measurement, queuing theory.

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Authors: Tahir Iqbal, Mumtaz Ali, Syed Wajahat Kareem, Muhammad Harris

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Digital information is expanding in exponential order in our life. Information that is residing online and offline are stored in huge repositories relating to every aspect of our lives. Getting the required information is a task of retrieval systems. Content based image retrieval (CBIR) is a retrieval system that retrieves the required information from repositories on the basis of the contents of the image. Time is a critical factor in retrieval system and using indexed views with CBIR system improves the time efficiency of retrieved results.

Keywords: Content based image retrieval (CBIR), Indexed view, Color, Image retrieval, Cross correlation.

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Authors: Xiaoshu Lu, Päivi Leino-Arjas, Kustaa Piha, Akseli Aittomäki, Peppiina Saastamoinen, Ossi Rahkonen, Eero Lahelma

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Sickness absence represents a major economic and social issue. Analysis of sick leave data is a recurrent challenge to analysts because of the complexity of the data structure which is often time dependent, highly skewed and clumped at zero. Ignoring these features to make statistical inference is likely to be inefficient and misguided. Traditional approaches do not address these problems. In this study, we discuss model methodologies in terms of statistical techniques for addressing the difficulties with sick leave data. We also introduce and demonstrate a new method by performing a longitudinal assessment of long-term absenteeism using a large registration dataset as a working example available from the Helsinki Health Study for municipal employees from Finland during the period of 1990-1999. We present a comparative study on model selection and a critical analysis of the temporal trends, the occurrence and degree of long-term sickness absences among municipal employees. The strengths of this working example include the large sample size over a long follow-up period providing strong evidence in supporting of the new model. Our main goal is to propose a way to select an appropriate model and to introduce a new methodology for analysing sickness absence data as well as to demonstrate model applicability to complicated longitudinal data.

Keywords: Sickness absence, longitudinal data, methodologies, mix-distribution model.

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Authors: Mouna Hamed, Ammar B. Brahim

Abstract:

The objective of this work was to develop a theoretical model to study the dynamic thermal behavior of a flat plate solar collector integrated with a phase change material (PCM). The PCM acted as a heat source for the solar system during low intensity solar radiation and night. The energy balance equations for the various components of the collector as well as for the PCM were formulated and numerically solved using Matlab computational program. The effect of natural convection on heat during the melting process was taken into account by using an effective thermal conductivity. The model was used to investigate the effect of inlet water temperature, water mass flow rate, and PCM thickness on the outlet water temperature and the melt fraction during charging and discharging modes. A comparison with a collector without PCM was made. Results showed that charging and discharging processes of PCM have six stages. The adding of PCM caused a decrease in temperature during charge and an increase during discharge. The rise was most enhanced for higher inlet water temperature, PCM thickness and for lower mass flow rate. Analysis indicated that the complete melting time was shorter than the solidification time due to the high heat transfer coefficient during melting. The increases in PCM height and mass flow rate were not linear with the melting and solidification times.

Keywords: Thermal energy storage, phase change material, melting, solidification.

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Authors: Mouna Hamed, Ammar B. Brahim

Abstract:

The objective of this work was to develop a theoretical model to study the dynamic thermal behavior of a flat plate solar collector integrated with a phase change material (PCM). The PCM acted as a heat source for the solar system during low intensity solar radiation and night. The energy balance equations for the various components of the collector as well as for the PCM were formulated and numerically solved using MATLAB computational program. The effect of natural convection on heat during the melting process was taken into account by using an effective thermal conductivity. The model was used to investigate the effect of inlet water temperature, water mass flow rate, and PCM thickness on the outlet water temperature and the melt fraction during charging and discharging modes. A comparison with a collector without PCM was made. Results showed that charging and discharging processes of PCM have six stages. The adding of PCM caused a decrease in temperature during charge and an increase during discharge. The rise was most enhanced for higher inlet water temperature, PCM thickness and for lower mass flow rate. Analysis indicated that the complete melting time was shorter than the solidification time due to the high heat transfer coefficient during melting. The increases in PCM height and mass flow rate were not linear with the melting and solidification times.

Keywords: Thermal energy storage, phase change material, melting, solidification.

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Authors: Youngjae Jin, Daeshik Kim

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This paper describes a cycle accurate simulation results of weight values learned by an auto-encoder behavior model in terms of pre-route simulation. Given the results we visualized the first layer representations with natural images. Many common deep learning threads have focused on learning high-level abstraction of unlabeled raw data by unsupervised feature learning. However, in the process of handling such a huge amount of data, the learning method’s computation complexity and time limited advanced research. These limitations came from the fact these algorithms were computed by using only single core CPUs. For this reason, parallel-based hardware, FPGAs, was seen as a possible solution to overcome these limitations. We adopted and simulated the ready-made auto-encoder to design a behavior model in VerilogHDL before designing hardware. With the auto-encoder behavior model pre-route simulation, we obtained the cycle accurate results of the parameter of each hidden layer by using MODELSIM. The cycle accurate results are very important factor in designing a parallel-based digital hardware. Finally this paper shows an appropriate operation of behavior model based pre-route simulation. Moreover, we visualized learning latent representations of the first hidden layer with Kyoto natural image dataset.

Keywords: Auto-encoder, Behavior model simulation, Digital hardware design, Pre-route simulation, Unsupervised feature learning.

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Authors: Wang Chengcheng, Li Chuanri, Xu Fei, Guo Ying

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Aiming at most of the aviation products are facing the problem of fatigue fracture in vibration environment, we makes use of the testing result of a bracket, analysis for the structure with ANSYS-Workbench, predict the life of the bracket by different ways, and compared with the testing result. With the research on analysis methods, make an organic combination of simulation analysis and testing, Not only ensure the accuracy of simulation analysis and life predict, but also make a dynamic supervision of product life process, promote the application of finite element simulation analysis in engineering practice.

Keywords: Random vibration, finite element simulation, fatigue, frequency domain.

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Authors: Daniela Elena Marinescu, Ioana Manafi, Dumitru Marin

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We consider a Principal-Agent model with the Principal being a seller who does not know perfectly how much the buyer (the Agent) is willing to pay for the good. The buyer-s preferences are hence his private information. The model corresponds to the nonlinear pricing problem of Maskin and Riley. We assume there are three types of Agents. The model is solved using “informational rents" as variables. In the last section we present the main characteristics of the optimal contracts in asymmetric information and some possible extensions of the model.

Keywords: Adverse selection, asymmetric information, informational rent, nonlinear pricing, optimal contract

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Authors: Okay Gunes

Abstract:

Unsatisfactory experiences due to an information shortage regarding the future pay-offs of actual choices, yield satisficing decision-making. This research will examine, for the first time in the literature, the motivation behind suboptimal decisions due to uncertainty by subjecting Adam Smith’s and Jeremy Bentham’s assumptions about the nature of the actions that lead to satisficing behavior, in order to clarify the theoretical background of a “consumption-based satisfactory time” concept. The contribution of this paper with respect to the existing literature is threefold: firstly, it is showed in this paper that Adam Smith’s uncertainty is related to the problem of the constancy of ideas and not related directly to beliefs. Secondly, possessions, as in Jeremy Bentham’s oeuvre, are assumed to be just as pleasing, as protecting and improving the actual or expected quality of life, so long as they reduce any displeasure due to the undesired outcomes of uncertainty. Finally, each consumption decision incurs its own satisfactory time period, owed to not feeling hungry, being healthy, not having transportation…etc. This reveals that the level of satisfaction is indeed a behavioral phenomenon where its value would depend on the simultaneous satisfaction derived from all activities.

Keywords: Decision-making, idea and belief, satisficing, uncertainty.

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Authors: Mark Watson, J.-F. Bousquet, Adam Forget

Abstract:

A magnetic induction based underwater communication link is evaluated using an analytical model and a custom Finite-Difference Time-Domain (FDTD) simulation tool. The analytical model is based on the Sommerfeld integral, and a full-wave simulation tool evaluates Maxwell’s equations using the FDTD method in cylindrical coordinates. The analytical model and FDTD simulation tool are then compared and used to predict the system performance for various transmitter depths and optimum frequencies of operation. To this end, the system bandwidth, signal to noise ratio, and the magnitude of the induced voltage are used to estimate the expected channel capacity. The models show that in seawater, a relatively low-power and small coils may be capable of obtaining a throughput of 40 to 300 kbps, for the case where a transmitter is at depths of 1 to 3 m and a receiver is at a height of 1 m.

Keywords: Magnetic Induction, FDTD, Underwater Communication, Sommerfeld.

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, to model a real life wind turbine, a probabilistic approach is proposed to model the dynamics of the blade elements of a small axial wind turbine under extreme stochastic wind speeds conditions. It was found that the power and the torque probability density functions even-dough decreases at these extreme wind speeds but are not infinite. Moreover, we also fund that it is possible to stabilize the power coefficient (stabilizing the output power)above rated wind speeds by turning some control parameters. This method helps to explain the effect of turbulence on the quality and quantity of the harness power and aerodynamic torque.

Keywords: Probability, Stochastic, Probability density function, Turbulence.

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Authors: Muhammad Sheikh Sadi, D. G. Myers, Cesar Ortega Sanchez

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This paper proposes the use of metrics in design space exploration that highlight where in the structure of the model and at what point in the behaviour, prevention is needed against transient faults. Previous approaches to tackle transient faults focused on recovery after detection. Almost no research has been directed towards preventive measures. But in real-time systems, hard deadlines are performance requirements that absolutely must be met and a missed deadline constitutes an erroneous action and a possible system failure. This paper proposes the use of metrics to assess the system design to flag where transient faults may have significant impact. These tools then allow the design to be changed to minimize that impact, and they also flag where particular design techniques – such as coding of communications or memories – need to be applied in later stages of design.

Keywords: Criticality, Metrics, Real-Time Systems, Transient Faults.

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Authors: A. M. Qahtani, G. B. Wills, A. M. Gravell

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Communicating and managing customers’ requirements in software development projects play a vital role in the software development process. While it is difficult to do so locally, it is even more difficult to communicate these requirements over distributed boundaries and to convey them to multiple distribution customers. This paper discusses the communication of multiple distribution customers’ requirements in the context of customised software products. The main purpose is to understand the challenges of communicating and managing customisation requirements across distributed boundaries. We propose a model for Communicating Customisation Requirements of Multi-Clients in a Distributed Domain (CCRD). Thereafter, we evaluate that model by presenting the findings of a case study conducted with a company with customisation projects for 18 distributed customers. Then, we compare the outputs of the real case process and the outputs of the CCRD model using simulation methods. Our conjecture is that the CCRD model can reduce the challenge of communication requirements over distributed organisational boundaries, and the delay in decision making and in the entire customisation process time.

Keywords: Customisation Software Products, Global Software Engineering, Local Decision Making, Requirement Engineering, Simulation Model.

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Authors: Sathya Narayanan V., Sidharth P., Sanal Kumar. V. R.

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The success of any retail business is predisposed by its swift response and its knack in understanding the constraints and the requirements of customers. In this paper a conceptual design model of an automated customer-friendly supermarket has been proposed. In this model a 10-sided, space benefited, regular polygon shaped gravity shelves have been designed for goods storage and effective customer-specific algorithms have been built-in for quick automatic delivery of the randomly listed goods. The algorithm is developed with two main objectives, viz., delivery time and priority. For meeting these objectives the randomly listed items are reorganized according to the critical-path of the robotic arm specific to the identified shop and its layout and the items are categorized according to the demand, shape, size, similarity and nature of the product for an efficient pick-up, packing and delivery process. We conjectured that the proposed automated supermarket model reduces business operating costs with much customer satisfaction warranting a winwin situation.

Keywords: Automated Supermarket, Electronic Shopping, Polygon-shaped Rack, Shortest Path Algorithm for Shopping.

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Authors: Petr Gurný

Abstract:

One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the creditscoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: Credit-scoring Models, Multidimensional Subordinated Lévy Model, Probability of Default.

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Authors: Liqiong Liu, Shouming Zhong

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In this paper, the finite-time stabilization of a class of multi-state time delay of fractional-order system is proposed. First, we define finite-time stability with the fractional-order system. Second, by using Generalized Gronwall's approach and the methods of the inequality, we get some conditions of finite-time stability for the fractional system with multi-state delay. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the result.

Keywords: Finite-time stabilization, fractional-order system, Gronwall inequality.

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