Search results for: real time model

Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate.

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Authors: Miguel A. Gómez , Enrique Hilario , Francisco J. Alvarez , Elena Gastiasoro , Antonia Alvarez, Juan L. Larrabe

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Total liquid ventilation can support gas exchange in animal models of lung injury. Clinical application awaits further technical improvements and performance verification. Our aim was to develop a liquid ventilator, able to deliver accurate tidal volumes, and a computerized system for measuring lung mechanics. The computer-assisted, piston-driven respirator controlled ventilatory parameters that were displayed and modified on a real-time basis. Pressure and temperature transducers along with a lineal displacement controller provided the necessary signals to calculate lung mechanics. Ten newborn lambs (<6 days old) with respiratory failure induced by lung lavage, were monitored using the system. Electromechanical, hydraulic and data acquisition/analysis components of the ventilator were developed and tested in animals with respiratory failure. All pulmonary signals were collected synchronized in time, displayed in real-time, and archived on digital media. The total mean error (due to transducers, A/D conversion, amplifiers, etc.) was less than 5% compared to calibrated signals. Improvements in gas exchange and lung mechanics were observed during liquid ventilation, without impairment of cardiovascular profiles. The total liquid ventilator maintained accurate control of tidal volumes and the sequencing of inspiration/expiration. The computerized system demonstrated its ability to monitor in vivo lung mechanics, providing valuable data for early decision-making.

Keywords: immature lamb, perfluorocarbon, pressure-limited, total liquid ventilation, ventilator; volume-controlled

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Authors: D. Triantakonstantis, D. Stathakis

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Urban areas have been expanded throughout the globe. Monitoring and modelling urban growth have become a necessity for a sustainable urban planning and decision making. Urban prediction models are important tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of urban land use dynamics. The objective of this research paper is to analyze and model the urban change, which has been occurred from 1990 to 2000 using CORINE land cover maps. The model was developed using drivers of urban changes (such as road distance, slope, etc.) under an Artificial Neural Network modelling approach. Validation was achieved using a prediction map for 2006 which was compared with a real map of Urban Atlas of 2006. The accuracy produced a Kappa index of agreement of 0,639 and a value of Cramer's V of 0,648. These encouraging results indicate the importance of the developed urban growth prediction model which using a set of available common biophysical drivers could serve as a management tool for the assessment of urban change.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, CORINE, Urban Atlas, Urban Growth Prediction.

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Authors: Anuj Kumar Sharma, Amit Sharma, Kulbhushan Agnihotri

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In this paper, a delayed plankton-nutrient interaction model consisting of phytoplankton, zooplankton and dissolved nutrient is considered. It is assumed that some species of phytoplankton releases toxin (known as toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP)) which is harmful for zooplankton growth and this toxin releasing process follows a discrete time variation. Using delay as bifurcation parameter, the stability of interior equilibrium point is investigated and it is shown that time delay can destabilize the otherwise stable non-zero equilibrium state by inducing Hopf-bifurcation when it crosses a certain threshold value. Explicit results are derived for stability and direction of the bifurcating periodic solution by using normal form theory and center manifold arguments. Finally, outcomes of the system are validated through numerical simulations.

Keywords: Plankton, Time delay, Hopf-bifurcation, Normal form theory, Center manifold theorem.

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Authors: Teyana S. Sapula, Damian D. Haule

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In online context, the design and implementation of effective remote laboratories environment is highly challenging on account of hardware and software needs. This paper presents the remote laboratory software framework modified from ilab shared architecture (ISA). The ISA is a framework which enables students to remotely acccess and control experimental hardware using internet infrastructure. The need for remote laboratories came after experiencing problems imposed by traditional laboratories. Among them are: the high cost of laboratory equipment, scarcity of space, scarcity of technical personnel along with the restricted university budget creates a significant bottleneck on building required laboratory experiments. The solution to these problems is to build web-accessible laboratories. Remote laboratories allow students and educators to interact with real laboratory equipment located anywhere in the world at anytime. Recently, many universities and other educational institutions especially in third world countries rely on simulations because they do not afford the experimental equipment they require to their students. Remote laboratories enable users to get real data from real-time hand-on experiments. To implement many remote laboratories, the system architecture should be flexible, understandable and easy to implement, so that different laboratories with different hardware can be deployed easily. The modifications were made to enable developers to add more equipment in ISA framework and to attract the new developers to develop many online laboratories.

Keywords: Batched, ISA, labserver, servicebroker.

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Authors: Li Hongwei

Abstract:

In this paper, a predator-prey model with time delay and habitat complexity is investigated. By analyzing the characteristic equations, the local stability of each feasible equilibria of the system is discussed and the existence of a Hopf bifurcation at the coexistence equilibrium is established. By choosing the sum of two delays as a bifurcation parameter, we show that Hopf bifurcations can occur as  crosses some critical values. By deriving the equation describing the flow on the center manifold, we can determine the direction of the Hopf bifurcations and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main theoretical results.

Keywords: Predator-prey system, delay, habitat complexity, HOPF bifurcation.

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Authors: Asif Mansoor, Nasiruddin Khan, Noreen Jamil

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In this communication a quantitative modeling approach is applied to construct model for the exchange of gases from open sewer channel to the atmosphere. The data for the exchange of gases of the open sewer channel for the year January 1979 to December 2006 is utilized for the construction of the model. The study reveals that stream flow of the open sewer channel exchanges the toxic gases continuously with time varying scale. We find that the quantitative modeling approach is more parsimonious model for these exchanges. The usual diagnostic tests are applied for the model adequacy. This model is beneficial for planner and managerial bodies for the improvement of implemented policies to overcome future environmental problems.

Keywords: Open sewer channel, Industrial waste, Municipalwaste, Gases exchange, Atmosphere, Stochastic models, Diagnosticschecks.

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Authors: Janet Holland

Abstract:

Eye tracking is a great way to triangulate multiple data sources for deeper, more complete knowledge of how instructional materials are really being used and emotional connections made. Using sensor based biometrics provides a detailed local analysis in real time expanding our ability to collect science based data for a more comprehensive level of understanding, not previously possible, for teaching and learning. The knowledge gained will be used to make future improvements to instructional materials, tools, and interactions. The literature has been examined and a preliminary pilot test was implemented to develop a methodology for research in Instructional Design and Technology. Eye tracking now offers the addition of objective metrics obtained from eye tracking and other biometric data collection with analysis for a fresh perspective.

Keywords: Area of interest, eye tracking, biometrics, fixation, fixation count, fixation sequence, fixation time, gaze points, heat map, saccades, time to first fixation.

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Authors: M. Karimpour, L. Hitihamillage, N. Elkhoury, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

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Rail transport authorities around the world have been facing a significant challenge when predicting rail infrastructure maintenance work for a long period of time. Generally, maintenance monitoring and prediction is conducted manually. With the restrictions in economy, the rail transport authorities are in pursuit of improved modern methods, which can provide precise prediction of rail maintenance time and location. The expectation from such a method is to develop models to minimize the human error that is strongly related to manual prediction. Such models will help them in understanding how the track degradation occurs overtime under the change in different conditions (e.g. rail load, rail type, rail profile). They need a well-structured technique to identify the precise time that rail tracks fail in order to minimize the maintenance cost/time and secure the vehicles. The rail track characteristics that have been collected over the years will be used in developing rail track degradation prediction models. Since these data have been collected in large volumes and the data collection is done both electronically and manually, it is possible to have some errors. Sometimes these errors make it impossible to use them in prediction model development. This is one of the major drawbacks in rail track degradation prediction. An accurate model can play a key role in the estimation of the long-term behavior of rail tracks. Accurate models increase the track safety and decrease the cost of maintenance in long term. In this research, a short review of rail track degradation prediction models has been discussed before estimating rail track degradation for the curve sections of Melbourne tram track system using Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model.

Keywords: ANFIS, MGT, Prediction modeling, rail track degradation.

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Authors: Refaat H. Abd El Razek, Ahmed M. Diab, Sherif M. Hafez, Remon F. Aziz

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Time-Cost Optimization "TCO" is one of the greatest challenges in construction project planning and control, since the optimization of either time or cost, would usually be at the expense of the other. Since there is a hidden trade-off relationship between project and cost, it might be difficult to predict whether the total cost would increase or decrease as a result of the schedule compression. Recently third dimension in trade-off analysis is taken into consideration that is quality of the projects. Few of the existing algorithms are applied in a case of construction project with threedimensional trade-off analysis, Time-Cost-Quality relationships. The objective of this paper is to presents the development of a practical software system; that named Automatic Multi-objective Typical Construction Resource Optimization System "AMTCROS". This system incorporates the basic concepts of Line Of Balance "LOB" and Critical Path Method "CPM" in a multi-objective Genetic Algorithms "GAs" model. The main objective of this system is to provide a practical support for typical construction planners who need to optimize resource utilization in order to minimize project cost and duration while maximizing its quality simultaneously. The application of these research developments in planning the typical construction projects holds a strong promise to: 1) Increase the efficiency of resource use in typical construction projects; 2) Reduce construction duration period; 3) Minimize construction cost (direct cost plus indirect cost); and 4) Improve the quality of newly construction projects. A general description of the proposed software for the Time-Cost-Quality Trade-Off "TCQTO" is presented. The main inputs and outputs of the proposed software are outlined. The main subroutines and the inference engine of this software are detailed. The complexity analysis of the software is discussed. In addition, the verification, and complexity of the proposed software are proved and tested using a real case study.

Keywords: Project management, typical (repetitive) large scale projects, line of balance, multi-objective optimization, genetic algorithms, time-cost-quality trade-offs.

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Authors: Eugene Kindler

Abstract:

The present paper is oriented to problems of simulation of anticipatory systems, namely those that use simulation models for the aid of anticipation. A certain analogy between use of simulation and imagining will be applied to make the explication more comprehensible. The paper will be completed by notes of problems and by some existing applications. The problems consist in the fact that simulation of the mentioned anticipatory systems end is simulation of simulating systems, i.e. in computer models handling two or more modeled time axes that should be mapped to real time flow in a nondescent manner. Languages oriented to objects, processes and blocks can be used to surmount the problems.

Keywords: Anticipatory systems, Nested computer models, Discrete event simulation, Simula.

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Authors: Spiros Mazarakis, George Matzavinos, Peter P. Groumpos

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Economic models are complex dynamic systems with a lot of uncertainties and fuzzy data. Conventional modeling approaches using well known methods and techniques cannot provide realistic and satisfactory answers to today-s challenging economic problems. Qualitative modeling using fuzzy logic and intelligent system theories can be used to model macroeconomic models. Fuzzy Cognitive maps (FCM) is a new method been used to model the dynamic behavior of complex systems. For the first time FCMs and the Mamdani Model of Intelligent control is used to model macroeconomic models. This new model is referred as the Mamdani Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map (MBFCM) and provides the academic and research community with a new promising integrated advanced computational model. A new economic model is developed for a qualitative approach to Macroeconomic modeling. Fuzzy Controllers for such models are designed. Simulation results for an economic scenario are provided and extensively discussed

Keywords: Macroeconomic Models, Mamdani Rule Based- FCMs(MBFCMs), Qualitative and Dynamics System, Simulation.

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Authors: Wayan F. Mahmudy, Romeo M. Marian, Lee H. S. Luong

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This paper and its companion (Part 2) deal with modeling and optimization of two NP-hard problems in production planning of flexible manufacturing system (FMS), part type selection problem and loading problem. The part type selection problem and the loading problem are strongly related and heavily influence the system-s efficiency and productivity. The complexity of the problems is harder when flexibilities of operations such as the possibility of operation processed on alternative machines with alternative tools are considered. These problems have been modeled and solved simultaneously by using real coded genetic algorithms (RCGA) which uses an array of real numbers as chromosome representation. These real numbers can be converted into part type sequence and machines that are used to process the part types. This first part of the papers focuses on the modeling of the problems and discussing how the novel chromosome representation can be applied to solve the problems. The second part will discuss the effectiveness of the RCGA to solve various test bed problems.

Keywords: Flexible manufacturing system, production planning, part type selection problem, loading problem, real-coded genetic algorithm

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Authors: Lari Kela, Pekka Vähäoja

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Pressure wave velocity in a hydraulic system was determined using piezo pressure sensors without removing fluid from the system. The measurements were carried out in a low pressure range (0.2 – 6 bar) and the results were compared with the results of other studies. This method is not as accurate as measurement with separate measurement equipment, but the fluid is in the actual machine the whole time and the effect of air is taken into consideration if air is present in the system. The amount of air is estimated by calculations and comparisons between other studies. This measurement equipment can also be installed in an existing machine and it can be programmed so that it measures in real time. Thus, it could be used e.g. to control dampers.

Keywords: Bulk modulus, pressure wave, sound velocity.

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Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid B. Ali, Loh Wei Ping

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Throughput is an important measure of performance of production system. Analyzing and modeling of production throughput is complex in today-s dynamic production systems due to uncertainties of production system. The main reasons are that uncertainties are materialized when the production line faces changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, and scraps. Besides, demand changes are fluctuating from time to time for each product type. These uncertainties affect the production performance. This paper proposes Bayesian inference for throughput modeling under five production uncertainties. Bayesian model utilized prior distributions related to previous information about the uncertainties where likelihood distributions are associated to the observed data. Gibbs sampling algorithm as the robust procedure of Monte Carlo Markov chain was employed for sampling unknown parameters and estimating the posterior mean of uncertainties. The Bayesian model was validated with respect to convergence and efficiency of its outputs. The results presented that the proposed Bayesian models were capable to predict the production throughput with accuracy of 98.3%.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Uncertainty modeling, Monte Carlo Markov chain, Gibbs sampling, Production throughput

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Authors: Delfim Soares Jr.

Abstract:

In this work, a new family of time marching procedures based on Green’s function matrices is presented. The formulation is based on the development of new recurrence relationships, which employ time integral terms to treat initial condition values. These integral terms are numerically evaluated taking into account Newton-Cotes formulas. The Green’s matrices of the model are also numerically computed, taking into account the generalized-α method and subcycling techniques. As it is discussed and illustrated along the text, the proposed procedure is efficient and accurate, providing a very attractive time marching technique. 

Keywords: Dynamics, Time-Marching, Green’s Function, Generalized-α Method, Subcycling.

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Authors: Qin Ding, Jim Gasvoda

Abstract:

Clustering is the process of subdividing an input data set into a desired number of subgroups so that members of the same subgroup are similar and members of different subgroups have diverse properties. Many heuristic algorithms have been applied to the clustering problem, which is known to be NP Hard. Genetic algorithms have been used in a wide variety of fields to perform clustering, however, the technique normally has a long running time in terms of input set size. This paper proposes an efficient genetic algorithm for clustering on very large data sets, especially on image data sets. The genetic algorithm uses the most time efficient techniques along with preprocessing of the input data set. We test our algorithm on both artificial and real image data sets, both of which are of large size. The experimental results show that our algorithm outperforms the k-means algorithm in terms of running time as well as the quality of the clustering.

Keywords: Clustering, data mining, genetic algorithm, image data.

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Authors: Kyekyung Kim, Sangseung Kang, Suyoung Chi, Jaehong Kim

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In recent years, IT convergence technology has been developed to get creative solution by combining robotics or sports science technology. Object detection and recognition have mainly applied to sports science field that has processed by recognizing face and by tracking human body. But object detection and recognition using vision sensor is challenge task in real world because of illumination. In this paper, object detection and recognition using vision sensor applied to sports simulator has been introduced. Face recognition has been processed to identify user and to update automatically a person athletic recording. Human body has tracked to offer a most accurate way of riding horse simulator. Combined image processing has been processed to reduce illumination adverse affect because illumination has caused low performance in detection and recognition in real world application filed. Face has recognized using standard face graph and human body has tracked using pose model, which has composed of feature nodes generated diverse face and pose images. Face recognition using Gabor wavelet and pose recognition using pose graph is robust to real application. We have simulated using ETRI database, which has constructed on horse riding simulator.

Keywords: Horse riding simulator, Object detection, Object recognition, User identification, Pose recognition.

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Authors: Abimbola M. Enitan, John O. Odiyo, Feroz M. Swalaha

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The study of microbial ecology and their function in anaerobic digestion processes are essential to control the biological processes. This is to know the symbiotic relationship between the microorganisms that are involved in the conversion of complex organic matter in the industrial wastewater to simple molecules. In this study, diversity and quantity of bacterial community in the granular sludge taken from the different compartments of a full-scale upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor treating brewery wastewater was investigated using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR). The phylogenetic analysis showed three major eubacteria phyla that belong to Proteobacteria, Firmicutes and Chloroflexi in the full-scale UASB reactor, with different groups populating different compartment. The result of qPCR assay showed high amount of eubacteria with increase in concentration along the reactor’s compartment. This study extends our understanding on the diverse, topological distribution and shifts in concentration of microbial communities in the different compartments of a full-scale UASB reactor treating brewery wastewater. The colonization and the trophic interactions among these microbial populations in reducing and transforming complex organic matter within the UASB reactors were established.

Keywords: Bacteria, brewery wastewater, real-time quantitative PCR, UASB reactor.

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino

Abstract:

In this paper, a one-dimensional (1d) Parallel Elasto- Plastic Model (PEPM), able to simulate the uniaxial dynamic behavior of seismic isolators having a continuously decreasing tangent stiffness with increasing displacement, is presented. The parallel modeling concept is applied to discretize the continuously decreasing tangent stiffness function, thus allowing to simulate the dynamic behavior of seismic isolation bearings by putting linear elastic and nonlinear elastic-perfectly plastic elements in parallel. The mathematical model has been validated by comparing the experimental force-displacement hysteresis loops, obtained testing a helical wire rope isolator and a recycled rubber-fiber reinforced bearing, with those predicted numerically. Good agreement between the simulated and experimental results shows that the proposed model can be an effective numerical tool to predict the forcedisplacement relationship of seismic isolators within relatively large displacements. Compared to the widely used Bouc-Wen model, the proposed one allows to avoid the numerical solution of a first order ordinary nonlinear differential equation for each time step of a nonlinear time history analysis, thus reducing the computation effort, and requires the evaluation of only three model parameters from experimental tests, namely the initial tangent stiffness, the asymptotic tangent stiffness, and a parameter defining the transition from the initial to the asymptotic tangent stiffness.

Keywords: Base isolation, earthquake engineering, parallel elasto-plastic model, seismic isolators, softening hysteresis loops.

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Authors: Bahaa Eltahawy, Mikko Ylihärsilä, Reino Virrankoski, Esko Petäjä

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Sheet metal processing is automated, but the step from product models to the production machine control still requires human intervention. This may cause time consuming bottlenecks in the production process and increase the risk of human errors. In this paper we present a system, which automatically recognizes features from the CAD-model of the sheet metal product. By using these features, the system produces a complete model of the particular sheet metal product. Then the model is used as an input for the sheet metal processing machine. Currently the system is implemented, capable to recognize more than 11 of the most common sheet metal structural features, and the procedure is fully automated. This provides remarkable savings in the production time, and protects against the human errors. This paper presents the developed system architecture, applied algorithms and system software implementation and testing.

Keywords: Feature recognition, automation, sheet metal manufacturing, CAM, CAD.

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Authors: Mohamed Hafid, Marcel Lacroix

Abstract:

This study aimed at developing an inverse heat transfer approach for predicting the time-varying freezing front and the temperature distribution of tumors during cryosurgery. Using a temperature probe pressed against the layer of tumor, the inverse approach is able to predict simultaneously the metabolic heat generation and the blood perfusion rate of the tumor. Once these parameters are predicted, the temperature-field and time-varying freezing fronts are determined with the direct model. The direct model rests on one-dimensional Pennes bioheat equation. The phase change problem is handled with the enthalpy method. The Levenberg-Marquardt Method (LMM) combined to the Broyden Method (BM) is used to solve the inverse model. The effect (a) of the thermal properties of the diseased tissues; (b) of the initial guesses for the unknown thermal properties; (c) of the data capture frequency; and (d) of the noise on the recorded temperatures is examined. It is shown that the proposed inverse approach remains accurate for all the cases investigated.

Keywords: Cryosurgery, inverse heat transfer, Levenberg-Marquardt method, thermal properties, Pennes model, enthalpy method.

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Authors: Nazar Younis, Raied Salman

Abstract:

It has been always observed that the effectiveness of MIS as a support tool for management decisions degenerate after time of implementation, despite the substantial investments being made. This is true for organizations at the initial stages of MIS implementations, manual or computerized. A survey of a sample of middle to top managers in business and government institutions was made. A large ratio indicates that the MIS has lost its impact on the day-to-day operations, and even the response lag time expands sometimes indefinitely. The data indicates an infant mortality phenomenon of the bathtub model. Reasons may be monotonous nature of MIS delivery, irrelevance, irreverence, timeliness, and lack of adequate detail. All those reasons collaborate to create a degree of degeneracy. We investigate and model as a bathtub model the phenomenon of MIS degeneracy that inflicts the MIS systems and renders it ineffective. A degeneracy index is developed to identify the status of the MIS system and possible remedies to prevent the onset of total collapse of the system to the point of being useless.

Keywords: MIS, management theory, information technology, information systems, IS, organizational environment, organizations, degeneracy, organizational change.

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Authors: F. Smach, M. Atri, J. Mitéran, M. Abid

Abstract:

Face detection and recognition has many applications in a variety of fields such as security system, videoconferencing and identification. Face classification is currently implemented in software. A hardware implementation allows real-time processing, but has higher cost and time to-market. The objective of this work is to implement a classifier based on neural networks MLP (Multi-layer Perceptron) for face detection. The MLP is used to classify face and non-face patterns. The systm is described using C language on a P4 (2.4 Ghz) to extract weight values. Then a Hardware implementation is achieved using VHDL based Methodology. We target Xilinx FPGA as the implementation support.

Keywords: Classification, Face Detection, FPGA Hardware description, MLP.

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Authors: Samuel A. Phillips, Emmanuel A. Ayanlowo, Rasaki O. Olanrewaju, Olayode Fatoki

Abstract:

This paper employs the Jeffrey's prior technique in the process of estimating the periodograms and frequency of sinusoidal model for unknown noisy time variants or oscillating events (data) in a Bayesian setting. The non-informative Jeffrey's prior was adopted for the posterior trigonometric function of the sinusoidal model such that Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) inference was used in carving-out the minimum variance needed to curb the invariance structure effect for unknown noisy time observational and repeated circular patterns. An average monthly oscillating temperature series measured in degree Celsius (0C) from 1901 to 2014 was subjected to the posterior solution of the unknown noisy events of the sinusoidal model via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). It was not only deduced that two minutes period is required before completing a cycle of changing temperature from one particular degree Celsius to another but also that the sinusoidal model via the CRLB-Jeffrey's prior for unknown noisy events produced a miniature posterior Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) compare to a known noisy events.

Keywords: Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB), Jeffrey's prior, Sinusoidal, Maximum A Posteriori (MAP), Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Periodograms.

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Authors: R. Mechgoug, A. Titaouine

Abstract:

Fuzzy systems have been successfully used for exchange rate forecasting. However, fuzzy system is very confusing and complex to be designed by an expert, as there is a large set of parameters (fuzzy knowledge base) that must be selected, it is not a simple task to select the appropriate fuzzy knowledge base for an exchange rate forecasting. The researchers often look the effect of fuzzy knowledge base on the performances of fuzzy system forecasting. This paper proposes a genetic fuzzy predictor to forecast the future value of daily US Dollar/Euro exchange rate time’s series. A range of methodologies based on a set of fuzzy predictor’s which allow the forecasting of the same time series, but with a different fuzzy partition. Each fuzzy predictor is built from two stages, where each stage is performed by a real genetic algorithm.

Keywords: Foreign exchange rate, time series forecasting, Fuzzy System, and Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Wei Lei, Hui Chen, Lin Lu

Abstract:

Microscopic emission and fuel consumption models have been widely recognized as an effective method to quantify real traffic emission and energy consumption when they are applied with microscopic traffic simulation models. This paper presents a framework for developing the Microscopic Emission (HC, CO, NOx, and CO2) and Fuel consumption (MEF) models for light-duty vehicles. The variable of composite acceleration is introduced into the MEF model with the purpose of capturing the effects of historical accelerations interacting with current speed on emission and fuel consumption. The MEF model is calibrated by multivariate least-squares method for two types of light-duty vehicle using on-board data collected in Beijing, China by a Portable Emission Measurement System (PEMS). The instantaneous validation results shows the MEF model performs better with lower Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) compared to other two models. Moreover, the aggregate validation results tells the MEF model produces reasonable estimations compared to actual measurements with prediction errors within 12%, 10%, 19%, and 9% for HC, CO, NOx emissions and fuel consumption, respectively.

Keywords: Emission, Fuel consumption, Light-duty vehicle, Microscopic, Modeling.

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Authors: Beata Jackowska-Zduniak

Abstract:

We formulate and analyze a mathematical model describing dynamics of the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid homoeostatic mechanism in endocrine system. We introduce to this system two types of couplings and delay. In our model, feedback controls the secretion of thyroid hormones and delay reflects time lags required for transportation of the hormones. The influence of delayed feedback on the stability behaviour of the system is discussed. Analytical results are illustrated by numerical examples of the model dynamics. This system of equations describes normal activity of the thyroid and also a couple of types of malfunctions (e.g. hyperthyroidism).

Keywords: Mathematical modeling, ordinary differential equations, endocrine system, stability analysis.

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Authors: J. Silvestre, L. Almeida, R. Marau, P. Pedreiras

Abstract:

Currently, there are many local area industrial networks that can give guaranteed bandwidth to synchronous traffic, particularly providing CBR channels (Constant Bit Rate), which allow improved bandwidth management. Some of such networks operate over Ethernet, delivering channels with enough capacity, specially with compressors, to integrate multimedia traffic in industrial monitoring and image processing applications with many sources. In these industrial environments where a low latency is an essential requirement, JPEG is an adequate compressing technique but it generates VBR traffic (Variable Bit Rate). Transmitting VBR traffic in CBR channels is inefficient and current solutions to this problem significantly increase the latency or further degrade the quality. In this paper an R(q) model is used which allows on-line calculation of the JPEG quantification factor. We obtained increased quality, a lower requirement for the CBR channel with reduced number of discarded frames along with better use of the channel bandwidth.

Keywords: Industrial Networks, Multimedia.

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Authors: Erik Lilienblum, Robert Niese, Bernd Michaelis

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel stereo vision technique for top view book scanners which provide us with dense 3d point clouds of page surfaces. This is a precondition to dewarp bound volumes independent of 2d information on the page. Our method is based on algorithms, which normally require the projection of pattern sequences with structured light. We use image sequences of the moving stripe lighting of the top view scanner instead of an additional light projection. Thus the stereo vision setup is simplified without losing measurement accuracy. Furthermore we improve a surface model dewarping method through introducing a difference vector based on real measurements. Although our proposed method is hardly expensive neither in calculation time nor in hardware requirements we present good dewarping results even for difficult examples.

Keywords: stereo vision, 3d surface reconstruction, dewarpingdocuments, book scanner

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