Search results for: Proportional gain prediction.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1829

Search results for: Proportional gain prediction.

1049 Storytelling for Business Blogging: Position and Navigation

Authors: Han-yuh Liu, Chia-yen Wu

Abstract:

Truly successful bloggers, navigating the public to know them, often use their blogs as a way to better communicate with customers. Integrating with marketing tools, storytelling can be regarded as one of the most effective ways that businesses can follow to gain competitive edge. Even though the literature on marketing contains much discussion of traditional vehicles, the issue of business blogs applying storytelling has, as yet, received little attention. In the exploration stage, this paper identifies four storytelling disciplines and then presents a road map to business blogging. This paper also provides a two-path framework for blog storytelling and initiates an issue for further study.

Keywords: Storytelling, business blog, blog content, blog position, blog navigation.

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1048 Futures Trading: Design of a Strategy

Authors: Jan Zeman

Abstract:

The paper describes the futures trading and aims to design the speculators trading strategy. The problem is formulated as the decision making task and such as is solved. The solution of the task leads to complex mathematical problems and the approximations of the decision making is demanded. Two kind of approximation are used in the paper: Monte Carlo for the multi-step prediction and iteration spread in time for the optimization. The solution is applied to the real-market data and the results of the off-line experiments are presented.

Keywords: futures trading, decision making

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1047 A Multiple Inlet Swirler for Gas Turbine Combustors

Authors: Yehia A. Eldrainy, Hossam S. Aly, Khalid M. Saqr, Mohammad Nazri Mohd Jaafar

Abstract:

The central recirculation zone (CRZ) in a swirl stabilized gas turbine combustor has a dominant effect on the fuel air mixing process and flame stability. Most of state of the art swirlers share one disadvantage; the fixed swirl number for the same swirler configuration. Thus, in a mathematical sense, Reynolds number becomes the sole parameter for controlling the flow characteristics inside the combustor. As a result, at low load operation, the generated swirl is more likely to become feeble affecting the flame stabilization and mixing process. This paper introduces a new swirler concept which overcomes the mentioned weakness of the modern configurations. The new swirler introduces air tangentially and axially to the combustor through tangential vanes and an axial vanes respectively. Therefore, it provides different swirl numbers for the same configuration by regulating the ratio between the axial and tangential flow momenta. The swirler aerodynamic performance was investigated using four CFD simulations in order to demonstrate the impact of tangential to axial flow rate ratio on the CRZ. It was found that the length of the CRZ is directly proportional to the tangential to axial air flow rate ratio.

Keywords: Swirler, Gas turbine, CFD, Numerical simulation, Recirculation zone, Swirl number

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1046 Roll of Membership functions in Fuzzy Logic for Prediction of Shoot Length of Mustard Plant Based on Residual Analysis

Authors: Satyendra Nath Mandal, J. Pal Choudhury, Dilip De, S. R. Bhadra Chaudhuri

Abstract:

The selection for plantation of a particular type of mustard plant depending on its productivity (pod yield) at the stage of maturity. The growth of mustard plant dependent on some parameters of that plant, these are shoot length, number of leaves, number of roots and roots length etc. As the plant is growing, some leaves may be fall down and some new leaves may come, so it can not gives the idea to develop the relationship with the seeds weight at mature stage of that plant. It is not possible to find the number of roots and root length of mustard plant at growing stage that will be harmful of this plant as roots goes deeper to deeper inside the land. Only the value of shoot length which increases in course of time can be measured at different time instances. Weather parameters are maximum and minimum humidity, rain fall, maximum and minimum temperature may effect the growth of the plant. The parameters of pollution, water, soil, distance and crop management may be dominant factors of growth of plant and its productivity. Considering all parameters, the growth of the plant is very uncertain, fuzzy environment can be considered for the prediction of shoot length at maturity of the plant. Fuzzification plays a greater role for fuzzification of data, which is based on certain membership functions. Here an effort has been made to fuzzify the original data based on gaussian function, triangular function, s-function, Trapezoidal and L –function. After that all fuzzified data are defuzzified to get normal form. Finally the error analysis (calculation of forecasting error and average error) indicates the membership function appropriate for fuzzification of data and use to predict the shoot length at maturity. The result is also verified using residual (Absolute Residual, Maximum of Absolute Residual, Mean Absolute Residual, Mean of Mean Absolute Residual, Median of Absolute Residual and Standard Deviation) analysis.

Keywords: Fuzzification, defuzzification, gaussian function, triangular function, trapezoidal function, s-function, , membership function, residual analysis.

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1045 A PI Controller for Enhancing the Transient Stability of Multi Pulse Inverter Based Static Synchronous Series Compensator (SSSC) With Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage(SMES)

Authors: S. Padma, Dr. R. Lakshmipathi, K. Ramash Kumar, P. Nandagopal

Abstract:

The power system network is becoming more complex nowadays and it is very difficult to maintain the stability of the system. Today-s enhancement of technology makes it possible to include new energy storage devices in the electric power system. In addition, with the aid of power electronic devices, it is possible to independently exchange active and reactive power flow with the utility grid. The main purpose of this paper proposes a Proportional – Integral (PI) control based 48 – pulse Inverter based Static Synchronous Series Compensator (SSSC) with and without Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES) used for enhancing the transient stability and regulating power flow in automatic mode. Using a test power system through the dynamic simulation in Matlab/Simulink platform validates the performance of the proposed SSSC with and without SMES system.

Keywords: Flexible AC transmission system (FACTS), PIControl, Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES), Static Synchronous Series Compensator (SSSC).

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1044 H∞ State Estimation of Neural Networks with Discrete and Distributed Delays

Authors: Biao Qin, Jin Huang

Abstract:

In this paper, together with some improved Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and effective mathematical techniques, several sufficient conditions are derived to guarantee the error system is globally asymptotically stable with H∞ performance, in which both the time-delay and its time variation can be fully considered. In order to get less conservative results of the state estimation condition, zero equalities and reciprocally convex approach are employed. The estimator gain matrix can be obtained in terms of the solution to linear matrix inequalities. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the obtained results.

Keywords: H∞ performance, Neural networks, State estimation.

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1043 Critical Points of Prefabricated Reinforced Concrete Wall Systems of Multi-storey Buildings

Authors: J. Witzany, T. Čejka, R. Zigler

Abstract:

With respect to the dissipation of energy through plastic deformation of joints of prefabricated wall units, the paper points out the principal importance of efficient reinforcement of the prefabricated system at its joints. The method, quality and amount of reinforcement are essential for reaching the necessary degree of joint ductility. The paper presents partial results of experimental research of vertical joints of prefabricated units exposed to monotonously rising loading and repetitive shear force and formulates a conclusion that the limit state of the structure as a whole is preceded by the disintegration of joints, or that the structure tends to pass from linearly elastic behaviour to non-linearly elastic to plastic behaviour by exceeding the proportional elastic limit in joints.Experimental verification on a model of a 7-storey prefabricated structure revealed weak points in its load-bearing systems, mainly at places of critical points around openings situated in close proximity to vertical joints of mutually perpendicularly oriented walls.

Keywords: dissipative energy, dynamic and cycling load repetitive load, working diagrams of joints

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1042 Developing a New Relationship between Undrained Shear Strength and Over-Consolidation Ratio

Authors: Wael M Albadri, Hassnen M Jafer, Ehab H Sfoog

Abstract:

Relationship between undrained shear strength (Su) and over consolidation ratio (OCR) of clay soil (marine clay) is very important in the field of geotechnical engineering to estimate the settlement behaviour of clay and to prepare a small scale physical modelling test. In this study, a relationship between shear strength and OCR parameters was determined using the laboratory vane shear apparatus and the fully automatic consolidated apparatus. The main objective was to establish non-linear correlation formula between shear strength and OCR and comparing it with previous studies. Therefore, in order to achieve this objective, three points were chosen to obtain 18 undisturbed samples which were collected with an increasing depth of 1.0 m to 3.5 m each 0.5 m. Clay samples were prepared under undrained condition for both tests. It was found that the OCR and shear strength are inversely proportional at similar depth and at same undrained conditions. However, a good correlation was obtained from the relationships where the R2 values were very close to 1.0 using polynomial equations. The comparison between the experimental result and previous equation from other researchers produced a non-linear correlation which has a similar pattern with this study.

Keywords: Shear strength, over-consolidation ratio, vane shear test, clayey soil.

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1041 Development of Scratching Monitoring System Based On Mathematical Model of Unconstrained Bed Sensing Method

Authors: Takuya Sumi, Syoko Nukaya, Takashi Kaburagi, Hiroshi Tanaka, Kajiro Watanabe, Yosuke Kurihara

Abstract:

We propose an unconstrained measurement system for scratching motion based on mathematical model of unconstrained bed sensing method which could measure the bed vibrations due to the motion of the person on the bed. In this paper, we construct mathematical model of the unconstrained bed monitoring system; and we apply the unconstrained bed sensing method to the system for detecting scratching motion. The proposed sensors are placed under the three bed feet. When the person is lying on the bed, the output signals from the sensors are proportional to the magnitude of the vibration due to the scratching motion. Hence, we could detect the subject’s scratching motion from the output signals from ceramic sensors. We evaluated two scratching motions using the proposed system in the validity experiment as follows: 1st experiment is the subject’s scratching the right side cheek with his right hand, and; 2nd experiment is the subject’s scratching the shin with another foot. As the results of the experiment, we recognized the scratching signals that enable the determination when the scratching occurred. Furthermore, the difference among the amplitudes of the output signals enabled us to estimate where the subject scratched.

Keywords: Unconstrained bed sensing method, scratching, body movement, itchy, piezoceramics.

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1040 Stabilizer Fillet Weld Strength under Multiaxial Loading (Effect of Force, Size and Residual Stress)

Authors: Iman Hadipour, Javad Marzbanrad

Abstract:

In this paper, the strength of a stabilizer is determined when the static and fatigue multiaxial loading are applied. Stabilizer is a part of suspension system in the heavy truck for stabilizing the cabin against the vibration of the road which composes of a thin-walled tube joined to a forge component by fillet weld. The component is loaded by non proportional random sequence of torsion and bending. Residual stress of welding process is considered here for static loading. This static loading with road irregularities are applied in this study as fatigue case that can affected in the fillet welded area of this part. The stresses in the welded structure are calculated using FEA. In addition, the fatigue with multi axial loading in the fillet weld is also investigated and the critical zone of the stabilizer is specified and presented by graphs. Residual stresses that have been resulted by the thermal forces are considered in FEA. Force increasing is the element of finding the critical point of the component.

Keywords: Fillet weld, fatigue, weld toe crack, weld root crack, S-N curve, multiaxial load, residual stress, combined force.

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1039 0.13-µm Complementary Metal-Oxide Semiconductor Vector Modulator for Beamforming System

Authors: J. S. Kim

Abstract:

This paper presents a 0.13-µm Complementary Metal-Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS) vector modulator for beamforming system. The vector modulator features a 360° phase and gain range of -10 dB to 10 dB with a root mean square phase and amplitude error of only 2.2° and 0.45 dB, respectively. These features make it a suitable for wireless backhaul system in the 5 GHz industrial, scientific, and medical (ISM) bands. It draws a current of 20.4 mA from a 1.2 V supply. The total chip size is 1.87x1.34 mm².

Keywords: CMOS, vector modulator, beamforming, wireless backhaul, ISM.

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1038 Assessment of Path Loss Prediction Models for Wireless Propagation Channels at L-Band Frequency over Different Micro-Cellular Environments of Ekiti State, Southwestern Nigeria

Authors: C. I. Abiodun, S. O. Azi, J. S. Ojo, P. Akinyemi

Abstract:

The design of accurate and reliable mobile communication systems depends majorly on the suitability of path loss prediction methods and the adaptability of the methods to various environments of interest. In this research, the results of the adaptability of radio channel behavior are presented based on practical measurements carried out in the 1800 MHz frequency band. The measurements are carried out in typical urban, suburban and rural environments in Ekiti State, Southwestern part of Nigeria. A total number of seven base stations of MTN GSM service located in the studied environments were monitored. Path loss and break point distances were deduced from the measured received signal strength (RSS) and a practical path loss model is proposed based on the deduced break point distances. The proposed two slope model, regression line and four existing path loss models were compared with the measured path loss values. The standard deviations of each model with respect to the measured path loss were estimated for each base station. The proposed model and regression line exhibited lowest standard deviations followed by the Cost231-Hata model when compared with the Erceg Ericsson and SUI models. Generally, the proposed two-slope model shows closest agreement with the measured values with a mean error values of 2 to 6 dB. These results show that, either the proposed two slope model or Cost 231-Hata model may be used to predict path loss values in mobile micro cell coverage in the well-considered environments. Information from this work will be useful for link design of microwave band wireless access systems in the region.

Keywords: Break-point distances, path loss models, path loss exponent, received signal strength.

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1037 Characterising Effects of Applied Loads on the Mechanical Properties of Formed Steel Sheets

Authors: Esther T. Akinlabi, Stephen A. Akinlabi

Abstract:

The purpose of this research study is to investigate the manner in which various loads affect the mechanical properties of the formed mild steel plates. The investigation focuses on examining the cross-sectional area of the metal plate at the centre of the formed mild steel plate. Six mild steel plates were deformed with different loads. The loads applied on the plates had a magnitude of 5 kg, 10 kg, 15 kg, 20 kg, 25 kg and 30 kg. The radius of the punching die was 120 mm and the loads were applied at room temperature. The investigations established that the applied load causes the Vickers microhardness at the cross-sectional area of the plate to increase due to strain hardening. Hence, the percentage increase of the hardness due to the load was found to be directly proportional to the increase in the load. Furthermore, the tensile test results for the parent material showed that the average Ultimate Tensile Strength (UTS) for the three samples was 308 MPa while the average Yield Strength and Percentage Elongation were 227 MPa and 38 % respectively. Similarly, the UTS of the formed components increased after the deformation of the plate, as such it can be concluded that the forming loads alter the mechanical properties of the materials by improving and strengthening the material properties.

Keywords: Applied load, forming and Mechanical Properties.

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1036 Genetic Algorithms in Hot Steel Rolling for Scale Defect Prediction

Authors: Jarno Haapamäki, Juha Röning

Abstract:

Scale defects are common surface defects in hot steel rolling. The modelling of such defects is problematic and their causes are not straightforward. In this study, we investigated genetic algorithms in search for a mathematical solution to scale formation. For this research, a high-dimensional data set from hot steel rolling process was gathered. The synchronisation of the variables as well as the allocation of the measurements made on the steel strip were solved before the modelling phase.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, hot strip rolling, knowledge discovery, modeling.

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1035 Investigation of Artificial Neural Networks Performance to Predict Net Heating Value of Crude Oil by Its Properties

Authors: Mousavian, M. Moghimi Mofrad, M. H. Vakili, D. Ashouri, R. Alizadeh

Abstract:

The aim of this research is to use artificial neural networks computing technology for estimating the net heating value (NHV) of crude oil by its Properties. The approach is based on training the neural network simulator uses back-propagation as the learning algorithm for a predefined range of analytically generated well test response. The network with 8 neurons in one hidden layer was selected and prediction of this network has been good agreement with experimental data.

Keywords: Neural Network, Net Heating Value, Crude Oil, Experimental, Modeling.

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1034 Solar-Powered Adsorption Cooling System: A Case Study on the Climatic Conditions of Al Minya

Authors: El-Sadek H. Nour El-deen, K. Harby

Abstract:

Energy saving and environment friendly applications are turning out to be one of the most important topics nowadays. In this work, a simulation analysis using TRNSYS software has been carried out to study the benefit of employing a solar adsorption cooling system under the climatic conditions of Al-Minya city, Egypt. A theoretical model was carried out on a two bed adsorption cooling system employing granular activated carbon-HFC-404A as working pair. Temporal and averaged history of solar collector, adsorbent beds, evaporator and condenser has been shown. System performance in terms of daily average cooling capacity and average coefficient of performance around the year has been investigated. The results showed that maximum yearly average coefficient of performance (COP) and cooling capacity are about 0.26 and 8 kW respectively. The maximum value of the both average cooling capacity and COP cyclic is directly proportional to the maximum solar radiation. The system performance was found to be increased with the average ambient temperature. Finally, the proposed solar powered adsorption cooling systems can be used effectively under Al-Minya climatic conditions.

Keywords: Adsorption, solar energy, environment, cooling, Egypt.

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1033 Quadrature Formula for Sampled Functions

Authors: Khalid Minaoui, Thierry Chonavel, Benayad Nsiri, Driss Aboutajdine

Abstract:

This paper deals with efficient quadrature formulas involving functions that are observed only at fixed sampling points. The approach that we develop is derived from efficient continuous quadrature formulas, such as Gauss-Legendre or Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature. We select nodes at sampling positions that are as close as possible to those of the associated classical quadrature and we update quadrature weights accordingly. We supply the theoretical quadrature error formula for this new approach. We show on examples the potential gain of this approach.

Keywords: Gauss-Legendre, Clenshaw-Curtis, quadrature, Peano kernel, irregular sampling.

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1032 Applying the Crystal Model Approach on Light Nuclei for Calculating Radii and Density Distribution

Authors: A. Amar

Abstract:

A new model namely, the crystal model, has been modified to calculate radius and density distribution of light nuclei up to 8Be. The crystal model has been modified according to solid state physics which uses the analogy between nucleon distribution and atoms distribution in the crystal. The model has analytical analysis to calculate the radius where the density distribution of light nuclei has been obtained from the analogy of crystal lattice. The distribution of nucleons over crystal has been discussed in general form. The equation used to calculate binding energy was taken from the solid-state model of repulsive and attractive force. The numbers of the protons were taken to control repulsive force where the atomic number was responsible for the attractive force. The parameter has been calculated from the crystal model was found to be proportional to the radius of the nucleus. The density distribution of light nuclei was taken as a summation of two clusters distribution as in 6Li=alpha+deuteron configuration. A test has been done on the data obtained for radius and density distribution using double folding for d+6,7Li with M3Y nucleon-nucleon interaction. Good agreement has been obtained for both radius and density distribution of light nuclei. The model failed to calculate the radius of 9Be, so modifications should be done to overcome discrepancy.

Keywords: nuclear lattice, crystal model, light nuclei, nuclear density distributions

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1031 Method to Improve Channel Coding Using Cryptography

Authors: Ayyaz Mahmood

Abstract:

A new approach for the improvement of coding gain in channel coding using Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) and Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) algorithm is proposed. This new approach uses the avalanche effect of block cipher algorithm AES and soft output values of MAP decoding algorithm. The performance of proposed approach is evaluated in the presence of Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN). For the verification of proposed approach, computer simulation results are included.

Keywords: Advanced Encryption Standard (AES), Avalanche Effect, Maximum A Posteriori (MAP), Soft Input Decryption (SID).

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1030 Combustion and Emission of a Compression Ignition Engine Fueled with Diesel and Hydrogen-Methane Mixture

Authors: J. H. Zhou, C. S. Cheung, C. W. Leung

Abstract:

The present study conducted experimental investigation on combustion and emission characteristics of compression ignition engine using diesel as pilot fuel and methane, hydrogen and methane/hydrogen mixture as gaseous fuels at 1800 rev min-1. The effect of gaseous fuel on peak cylinder pressure and heat release is modest at low to medium loads. At high load, the high combustion temperature and high quantity of pilot fuel contribute to better combustion efficiency for all kinds of gaseous fuels and increases the peak cylinder pressure. Enrichment of hydrogen in methane gradually increases the peak cylinder pressure. The brake thermal efficiency increases with higher hydrogen fraction at lower loads. Hydrogen addition in methane contributed to a proportional reduction of CO/CO2/HC emission without penalty of NOx. For particulate emission, methane and hydrogen, could both suppress the particle emission. 30% hydrogen fraction in methane is observed to be best in reducing the particulate emission.

Keywords: Combustion characteristics, diesel engine, emissions, methane/hydrogen mixture.

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1029 Effects of Milling Process Parameters on Cutting Forces and Surface Roughness When Finishing Ti6al4v Produced by Electron Beam Melting

Authors: Abdulmajeed Dabwan, Saqib Anwar, Ali Al-Samhan

Abstract:

Electron Beam Melting (EBM) is a metal powder bed-based Additive Manufacturing (AM) technology, which uses computer-controlled electron beams to create fully dense three-dimensional near-net-shaped parts from metal powder. It gives the ability to produce any complex parts directly from a computer-aided design (CAD) model without tools and dies, and with a variety of materials. However, the quality of the surface finish in EBM process has limitations to meeting the performance requirements of additively manufactured components. The aim of this study is to investigate the cutting forces induced during milling Ti6Al4V produced by EBM as well as the surface quality of the milled surfaces. The effects of cutting speed and radial depth of cut on the cutting forces, surface roughness, and surface morphology were investigated. The results indicated that the cutting speed was found to be proportional to the resultant cutting force at any cutting conditions while the surface roughness improved significantly with the increase in cutting speed and radial depth of cut.

Keywords: Electron beam melting, additive manufacturing, Ti6Al4V, surface morphology.

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1028 The Effects of Applied Negative Bias Voltage on Structure and Optical Properties of α-C:H Films

Authors: X. L. Zhou, S. Tunmee, I. Toda, K. Komatsu, S. Ohshio, H. Saitoh

Abstract:

Hydrogenated amorphous carbon (a-C:H) films have been synthesized by a radio frequency plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (rf-PECVD) technique with different bias voltage from 0.0 to -0.5 kV. The Raman spectra displayed the polymer-like hydrogenated amorphous carbon (PLCH) film with 0.0 to -0.1 and a-C:H films with -0.2 to -0.5 kV of bias voltages. The surface chemical information of all films were studied by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) technique, presented to C-C (sp2 and sp3) and C-O bonds, and relative carbon (C) and oxygen (O) atomics contents. The O contamination had affected on structure and optical properties. The true density of PLCH and a-C:H films were characterized by X-ray refractivity (XRR) method, showed the result as in the range of 1.16-1.73 g/cm3 that depending on an increasing of bias voltage. The hardness was proportional to the true density of films. In addition, the optical properties i.e. refractive index (n) and extinction coefficient (k) of these films were determined by a spectroscopic ellipsometry (SE) method that give formation to in 1.62-2.10 (n) and 0.04-0.15 (k) respectively. These results indicated that the optical properties confirmed the Raman results as presenting the structure changed with applied bias voltage increased.

Keywords: Negative bias voltage, a-C:H film, Oxygen contamination, Optical properties.

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1027 Measuring Enterprise Growth: Pitfalls and Implications

Authors: N. Šarlija, S. Pfeifer, M. Jeger, A. Bilandžić

Abstract:

Enterprise growth is generally considered as a key driver of competitiveness, employment, economic development and social inclusion. As such, it is perceived to be a highly desirable outcome of entrepreneurship for scholars and decision makers. The huge academic debate resulted in the multitude of theoretical frameworks focused on explaining growth stages, determinants and future prospects. It has been widely accepted that enterprise growth is most likely nonlinear, temporal and related to the variety of factors which reflect the individual, firm, organizational, industry or environmental determinants of growth. However, factors that affect growth are not easily captured, instruments to measure those factors are often arbitrary, causality between variables and growth is elusive, indicating that growth is not easily modeled. Furthermore, in line with heterogeneous nature of the growth phenomenon, there is a vast number of measurement constructs assessing growth which are used interchangeably. Differences among various growth measures, at conceptual as well as at operationalization level, can hinder theory development which emphasizes the need for more empirically robust studies. In line with these highlights, the main purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to compare structure and performance of three growth prediction models based on the main growth measures: Revenues, employment and assets growth. Secondly, to explore the prospects of financial indicators, set as exact, visible, standardized and accessible variables, to serve as determinants of enterprise growth. Finally, to contribute to the understanding of the implications on research results and recommendations for growth caused by different growth measures. The models include a range of financial indicators as lag determinants of the enterprises’ performances during the 2008-2013, extracted from the national register of the financial statements of SMEs in Croatia. The design and testing stage of the modeling used the logistic regression procedures. Findings confirm that growth prediction models based on different measures of growth have different set of predictors. Moreover, the relationship between particular predictors and growth measure is inconsistent, namely the same predictor positively related to one growth measure may exert negative effect on a different growth measure. Overall, financial indicators alone can serve as good proxy of growth and yield adequate predictive power of the models. The paper sheds light on both methodology and conceptual framework of enterprise growth by using a range of variables which serve as a proxy for the multitude of internal and external determinants, but are unlike them, accessible, available, exact and free of perceptual nuances in building up the model. Selection of the growth measure seems to have significant impact on the implications and recommendations related to growth. Furthermore, the paper points out to potential pitfalls of measuring and predicting growth. Overall, the results and the implications of the study are relevant for advancing academic debates on growth-related methodology, and can contribute to evidence-based decisions of policy makers.

Keywords: Growth measurement constructs, logistic regression, prediction of growth potential, small and medium-sized enterprises.

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1026 Lineup Optimization Model of Basketball Players Based on the Prediction of Recursive Neural Networks

Authors: Wang Yichen, Haruka Yamashita

Abstract:

In recent years, in the field of sports, decision making such as member in the game and strategy of the game based on then analysis of the accumulated sports data are widely attempted. In fact, in the NBA basketball league where the world's highest level players gather, to win the games, teams analyze the data using various statistical techniques. However, it is difficult to analyze the game data for each play such as the ball tracking or motion of the players in the game, because the situation of the game changes rapidly, and the structure of the data should be complicated. Therefore, it is considered that the analysis method for real time game play data is proposed. In this research, we propose an analytical model for "determining the optimal lineup composition" using the real time play data, which is considered to be difficult for all coaches. In this study, because replacing the entire lineup is too complicated, and the actual question for the replacement of players is "whether or not the lineup should be changed", and “whether or not Small Ball lineup is adopted”. Therefore, we propose an analytical model for the optimal player selection problem based on Small Ball lineups. In basketball, we can accumulate scoring data for each play, which indicates a player's contribution to the game, and the scoring data can be considered as a time series data. In order to compare the importance of players in different situations and lineups, we combine RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) model, which can analyze time series data, and NN (Neural Network) model, which can analyze the situation on the field, to build the prediction model of score. This model is capable to identify the current optimal lineup for different situations. In this research, we collected all the data of accumulated data of NBA from 2019-2020. Then we apply the method to the actual basketball play data to verify the reliability of the proposed model.

Keywords: Recurrent Neural Network, players lineup, basketball data, decision making model.

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1025 Enhanced-Delivery Overlay Multicasting Scheme by Optimizing Bandwidth and Latency Discrepancy Ratios

Authors: Omar F. Hamad, T. Marwala

Abstract:

With optimized bandwidth and latency discrepancy ratios, Node Gain Scores (NGSs) are determined and used as a basis for shaping the max-heap overlay. The NGSs - determined as the respective bandwidth-latency-products - govern the construction of max-heap-form overlays. Each NGS is earned as a synergy of discrepancy ratio of the bandwidth requested with respect to the estimated available bandwidth, and latency discrepancy ratio between the nodes and the source node. The tree leads to enhanceddelivery overlay multicasting – increasing packet delivery which could, otherwise, be hindered by induced packet loss occurring in other schemes not considering the synergy of these parameters on placing the nodes on the overlays. The NGS is a function of four main parameters – estimated available bandwidth, Ba; individual node's requested bandwidth, Br; proposed node latency to its prospective parent (Lp); and suggested best latency as advised by source node (Lb). Bandwidth discrepancy ratio (BDR) and latency discrepancy ratio (LDR) carry weights of α and (1,000 - α ) , respectively, with arbitrary chosen α ranging between 0 and 1,000 to ensure that the NGS values, used as node IDs, maintain a good possibility of uniqueness and balance between the most critical factor between the BDR and the LDR. A max-heap-form tree is constructed with assumption that all nodes possess NGS less than the source node. To maintain a sense of load balance, children of each level's siblings are evenly distributed such that a node can not accept a second child, and so on, until all its siblings able to do so, have already acquired the same number of children. That is so logically done from left to right in a conceptual overlay tree. The records of the pair-wise approximate available bandwidths as measured by a pathChirp scheme at individual nodes are maintained. Evaluation measures as compared to other schemes – Bandwidth Aware multicaSt architecturE (BASE), Tree Building Control Protocol (TBCP), and Host Multicast Tree Protocol (HMTP) - have been conducted. This new scheme generally performs better in terms of trade-off between packet delivery ratio; link stress; control overhead; and end-to-end delays.

Keywords: Overlay multicast, Available bandwidth, Max-heapform overlay, Induced packet loss, Bandwidth-latency product, Node Gain Score (NGS).

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1024 Hydrophobic Characteristics of EPDM Composite Insulators in Simulated Arid Desert Environment

Authors: Yasin Khan

Abstract:

Overhead electrical insulators form an important link in an electric power system. Along with the traditional insulators (i.e. glass and porcelain, etc) presently the polymeric insulators are also used world widely. These polymeric insulators are very sensitive to various environmental parameters such temperature, environmental pollution, UV-radiations, etc. which seriously effect their electrical, chemical and hydrophobic properties. The UV radiation level in the central region of Saudi Arabia is high as compared to the IEC standard for the accelerated aging of the composite insulators. Commonly used suspension type of composite EPDM (Ethylene Propylene Diene Monomer) insulator was subjected to accelerated stress aging as per modified IEC standard simulating the inland arid deserts atmospheric condition and also as per IEC-61109 standard. The hydrophobic characteristics were studied by measuring the contact angle along the insulator surface before and after the accelerated aging of the samples. It was found that EPDM insulator loses it hydrophobic properties proportional to the intensity of UV irradiations and its rate of recovery is also very low as compared to Silicone Rubber insulator.KeywordsEPDM, composite insulators, accelerated aging, hydrophobicity, contact angle.

Keywords: EPDM, composite insulators, accelerated aging, hydrophobicity, contact angle.

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1023 Deoiling Hydrocyclones Flow Field-A Comparison between k-Epsilon and LES

Authors: Maysam Saidi, Reza Maddahian, Bijan Farhanieh

Abstract:

In this research a comparison between k-epsilon and LES model for a deoiling hydrocyclone is conducted. Flow field of hydrocyclone is obtained by three-dimensional simulations with OpenFOAM code. Potential of prediction for both methods of this complex swirl flow is discussed. Large eddy simulation method results have more similarity to experiment and its results are presented in figures from different hydrocyclone cross sections.

Keywords: Deoiling hydrocyclones, k-epsilon model, Largeeddy simulation, OpenFOAM

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1022 Improving Decision Support for Organ Transplant

Authors: I. McCulloh, A. Placona, D. Stewart, D. Gause, K. Kiernan, M. Stuart, C. Zinner, L. Cartwright

Abstract:

We find in our data that an alarming number of viable deceased donor kidneys are discarded every year in the US, while waitlisted candidates are dying every day. We observe as many as 85% of transplanted organs are refused at least once for a patient that scored higher on the match list. There are hundreds of clinical variables involved in making a clinical transplant decision and there is rarely an ideal match. Decision makers exhibit an optimism bias where they may refuse an organ offer assuming a better match is imminent. We propose a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model, augmented by an accelerated failure time model based on patient-specific suitable organ supply and demand to estimate a time-to-next-offer. Performance is assessed with Cox-Snell residuals and decision curve analysis, demonstrating improved decision support for up to a 5-year outlook. Providing clinical decision-makers with quantitative evidence of likely patient outcomes (e.g., time to next offer and the mortality associated with waiting) may improve decisions and reduce optimism bias, thus reducing discarded organs and matching more patients on the waitlist.

Keywords: Decision science, KDPI, optimism bias, organ transplant.

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1021 Calibration of Time-Skew Error in a M-Channel Time-Interleaved Analog-to-Digital Converter

Authors: Yu-Sheng Lee, Qi An

Abstract:

Offset mismatch, gain mismatch, and time-skew error between time-interleaved channels limit the performance of time-interleaved analog-to-digital converters (TIADC). This paper focused on the time-skew error. A new technique for calibrating time-skew error in M-channels TIADC is described, and simulation results are also presented.

Keywords: Calibration, time-skew error, time-interleavedanalog-to-digital converters.

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1020 Mooring Analysis of Duct-Type Tidal Current Power System in Shallow Water

Authors: Chul H. Jo, Do Y. Kim, Bong K. Cho, Myeong J. Kim

Abstract:

The exhaustion of oil and the environmental pollution from the use of fossil fuel are increasing. Tidal current power (TCP) has been proposed as an alternative energy source because of its predictability and reliability. By applying a duct and single point mooring (SPM) system, a TCP device can amplify the generating power and keep its position properly. Because the generating power is proportional to cube of the current stream velocity, amplifying the current speed by applying a duct to a TCP system is an effective way to improve the efficiency of the power device. An SPM system can be applied at any water depth and is highly cost effective. Simple installation and maintenance procedures are also merits of an SPM system. In this study, we designed an SPM system for a duct-type TCP device for use in shallow water. Motions of the duct are investigated to obtain the response amplitude operator (RAO) as the magnitude of the transfer function. Parameters affecting the stability of the SPM system such as the fairlead departure angle, current velocity, and the number of clamp weights are analyzed and/or optimized. Wadam and OrcaFlex commercial software is used to design the mooring line.

Keywords: Mooring design, parametric analysis, response amplitude operator, single point mooring.

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