Search results for: carbon trading volume
25256 An Approach for the Prediction of Cardiovascular Diseases
Authors: Nebi Gedik
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Regardless of age or gender, cardiovascular illnesses are a serious health concern because of things like poor eating habits, stress, a sedentary lifestyle, hard work schedules, alcohol use, and weight. It tends to happen suddenly and has a high rate of recurrence. Machine learning models can be implemented to assist healthcare systems in the accurate detection and diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients. Improved heart failure prediction is one of the primary goals of researchers using the heart disease dataset. The purpose of this study is to identify the feature or features that offer the best classification prediction for CVD detection. The support vector machine classifier is used to compare each feature's performance. It has been determined which feature produces the best results.
Keywords: Cardiovascular disease, feature extraction, supervised learning, support vector machine.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13425255 Practices in Planning, Design and Construction of Head Race Tunnel of a Hydroelectric Project
Authors: M. S. Thakur, Mohit Shukla
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A channel/tunnel, which carries the water to the penstock/pressure shaft is called headrace tunnel (HRT). It is necessary to know the general topography, geology of the area, state of stress and other mechanical properties of the strata. For this certain topographical and geological investigations, in-situ and laboratory tests, and observations are required to be done. These investigations play an important role in a tunnel design as these help in deciding the optimum layout, shape and size and support requirements of the tunnel. The paper includes inputs from Nathpa Jhakri Hydeoelectric project which is India’s highest capacity (1500 MW) operating hydroelectric project. The paper would help the design engineers with various new concepts and preparedness against geological surprises.Keywords: Tunnelling, geology, head race tunnel, rockmass.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 373625254 Towards a Standardization in Scheduling Models: Assessing the Variety of Homonyms
Authors: Marcel Rojahn, Edzard Weber, Norbert Gronau
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Terminology is a critical instrument for each researcher. Different terminologies for the same research object may arise in different research communities. By this inconsistency, many synergistic effects get lost. Theories and models will be more understandable and reusable if a common terminology is applied. This paper examines the terminological (in)consistence for the research field of job-shop scheduling by a literature review. There is an enormous variety in the choice of terms and mathematical notation for the same concept. The comparability, reusability and combinability of scheduling methods is unnecessarily hampered by the arbitrary use of homonyms and synonyms. The acceptance in the community of used variables and notation forms is shown by means of a compliance quotient. This is proven by the evaluation of 240 scientific publications on planning methods.
Keywords: Job-shop scheduling, JSP, terminology, notation, standardization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 29125253 Development a Recommendation Library System Based On Android Application
Authors: Kunyanuth Kularbphettong, Kunnika Tenprakhon, Pattarapan Roonrakwit
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In this paper, we present a recommendation library application on Android system. The objective of this system is to support and advice user to use library resources based on mobile application. We describe the design approaches and functional components of this system. The system was developed based on under association rules, Apriori algorithm. In this project, it was divided the result by the research purposes into 2 parts: developing the Mobile application for online library service and testing and evaluating the system. Questionnaires were used to measure user satisfaction with system usability by specialists and users. The results were satisfactory both specialists and users.
Keywords: Online library, Apriori algorithm, android application, black box.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 400525252 Some Application of Random Fuzzy Queueing System Based On Fuzzy Simulation
Authors: Behrouz Fathi-Vajargah, Sara Ghasemalipour
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This paper studies a random fuzzy queueing system that the interarrival times of customers arriving at the server and the service times are independent and identically distributed random fuzzy variables. We match the random fuzzy queueing system with the random fuzzy alternating renewal process and we do not use from α-pessimistic and α-optimistic values to estimate the average chance of the event ”random fuzzy queueing system is busy at time t”, we employ the fuzzy simulation method in practical applications. Some theorem is proved and finally we solve a numerical example with fuzzy simulation method.
Keywords: Random fuzzy variables, Fuzzy simulation, Queueing system, Interarrival times.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 207625251 Association Rules Mining and NOSQL Oriented Document in Big Data
Authors: Sarra Senhadji, Imene Benzeguimi, Zohra Yagoub
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Big Data represents the recent technology of manipulating voluminous and unstructured data sets over multiple sources. Therefore, NOSQL appears to handle the problem of unstructured data. Association rules mining is one of the popular techniques of data mining to extract hidden relationship from transactional databases. The algorithm for finding association dependencies is well-solved with Map Reduce. The goal of our work is to reduce the time of generating of frequent itemsets by using Map Reduce and NOSQL database oriented document. A comparative study is given to evaluate the performances of our algorithm with the classical algorithm Apriori.
Keywords: Apriori, Association rules mining, Big Data, data mining, Hadoop, Map Reduce, MongoDB, NoSQL.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 68125250 Artificial Voltage-Controlled Capacitance and Inductance using Voltage-Controlled Transconductance
Authors: Mansour I. Abbadi, Abdel-Rahman M. Jaradat
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In this paper, a technique is proposed to implement an artificial voltage-controlled capacitance or inductance which can replace the well-known varactor diode in many applications. The technique is based on injecting the current of a voltage-controlled current source onto a fixed capacitor or inductor. Then, by controlling the transconductance of the current source by an external bias voltage, a voltage-controlled capacitive or inductive reactance is obtained. The proposed voltage-controlled reactance devices can be designed to work anywhere in the frequency spectrum. Practical circuits for the proposed voltage-controlled reactances are suggested and simulated.Keywords: voltage-controlled capacitance, voltage-controlled inductance, varactor diode, variable transconductance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 481625249 Efficient Lossless Compression of Weather Radar Data
Authors: Wei-hua Ai, Wei Yan, Xiang Li
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Data compression is used operationally to reduce bandwidth and storage requirements. An efficient method for achieving lossless weather radar data compression is presented. The characteristics of the data are taken into account and the optical linear prediction is used for the PPI images in the weather radar data in the proposed method. The next PPI image is identical to the current one and a dramatic reduction in source entropy is achieved by using the prediction algorithm. Some lossless compression methods are used to compress the predicted data. Experimental results show that for the weather radar data, the method proposed in this paper outperforms the other methods.
Keywords: Lossless compression, weather radar data, optical linear prediction, PPI image
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 224125248 Artificial Neural Network Approach for Short Term Load Forecasting for Illam Region
Authors: Mohsen Hayati, Yazdan Shirvany
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In this paper, the application of neural networks to study the design of short-term load forecasting (STLF) Systems for Illam state located in west of Iran was explored. One important architecture of neural networks named Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) to model STLF systems was used. Our study based on MLP was trained and tested using three years (2004-2006) data. The results show that MLP network has the minimum forecasting error and can be considered as a good method to model the STLF systems.Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Forecasting, Multi-layer perceptron.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 275725247 A New Effective Local Search Heuristic for the Maximum Clique Problem
Authors: S. Balaji
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An edge based local search algorithm, called ELS, is proposed for the maximum clique problem (MCP), a well-known combinatorial optimization problem. ELS is a two phased local search method effectively £nds the near optimal solutions for the MCP. A parameter ’support’ of vertices de£ned in the ELS greatly reduces the more number of random selections among vertices and also the number of iterations and running times. Computational results on BHOSLIB and DIMACS benchmark graphs indicate that ELS is capable of achieving state-of-the-art-performance for the maximum clique with reasonable average running times.
Keywords: Maximum clique, local search, heuristic, NP-complete.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 224125246 New Iterative Algorithm for Improving Depth Resolution in Ionic Analysis: Effect of Iterations Number
Authors: N. Dahraoui, M. Boulakroune, D. Benatia
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In this paper, the improvement by deconvolution of the depth resolution in Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS) analysis is considered. Indeed, we have developed a new Tikhonov- Miller deconvolution algorithm where a priori model of the solution is included. This is a denoisy and pre-deconvoluted signal obtained from: firstly, by the application of wavelet shrinkage algorithm, secondly by the introduction of the obtained denoisy signal in an iterative deconvolution algorithm. In particular, we have focused the light on the effect of the iterations number on the evolution of the deconvoluted signals. The SIMS profiles are multilayers of Boron in Silicon matrix.
Keywords: DRF, in-depth resolution, multiresolution deconvolution, SIMS, wavelet shrinkage.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 221125245 Development and Range Testing of a LoRaWAN System in an Urban Environment
Authors: N. R. Harris, J. Curry
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This paper describes the construction and operation of an experimental LoRaWAN network surrounding the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom. Following successful installation, an experimental node design is built and characterised, with particular emphasis on radio range. Several configurations are investigated, including different data rates, and varying heights of node. It is concluded that although range can be great (over 8 km in this case), environmental topology is critical. However, shorter range implementations, up to about 2 km in an urban environment, are relatively insensitive although care is still needed. The example node and the relatively simple base station reported demonstrate that LoraWan can be a very low cost and practical solution to Internet of Things type applications for distributed monitoring systems with sensors spread over distances of several km.Keywords: Wireless sensor network, LoRa, internet of things, propagation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 151125244 Designing and Implementing an Innovative Course about World Wide Web, Based on the Conceptual Representations of Students
Authors: Andreanna K. Koufou, Dimitrios K. Tsolis, Marida I. Ergazaki, Vasilis I. Komis, Vasiliki P. Zogza
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Internet is nowadays included to all National Curriculums of the elementary school. A comparative study of their goals leads to the conclusion that a complete curriculum should aim to student-s acquisition of the abilities to navigate and search for information and additionally to emphasize on the evaluation of the information provided by the World Wide Web. In a constructivistic knowledge framework the design of a course has to take under consideration the conceptual representations of students. The following paper presents the conceptual representation of students of eleven years old, attending the Sixth Grade of Greek Elementary School about World Wide Web and their use in the design and implementation of an innovative course.Keywords: Conceptual representations, Constructivism, Internet Didactics, World Wide Web
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 138925243 Podemos Party Origin: From Social Protest to Spanish Parliament
Authors: Víctor Manuel Muñoz-Sánchez, Antonio Manuel Pérez-Flores
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This paper analyzes the institutionalization of social protest in Spain. In the current crisis Podemos party seems to represent the political positions of the most affected citizens by the economic situation. It studies using quantitative techniques (statistical bivariate analysis), focusing on the exploitation of several bases of statistics data from the Center for Sociological and Research of Spanish Government, 15M movement characterization to its institutionalization in the Podemos party. Making a comparison between the participant's profile by the 15M and the social bases of Podemos votes. Data on the transformation of the socio-demographic profile of the fans, connoisseurs and 15M participants and voters are given.Keywords: Collective action, emerging parties, political parties, social protest.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 211125242 Challenges in Video Based Object Detection in Maritime Scenario Using Computer Vision
Authors: Dilip K. Prasad, C. Krishna Prasath, Deepu Rajan, Lily Rachmawati, Eshan Rajabally, Chai Quek
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This paper discusses the technical challenges in maritime image processing and machine vision problems for video streams generated by cameras. Even well documented problems of horizon detection and registration of frames in a video are very challenging in maritime scenarios. More advanced problems of background subtraction and object detection in video streams are very challenging. Challenges arising from the dynamic nature of the background, unavailability of static cues, presence of small objects at distant backgrounds, illumination effects, all contribute to the challenges as discussed here.Keywords: Autonomous maritime vehicle, object detection, situation awareness, tracking.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 130725241 A Study on Linking Upward Substitution and Fuzzy Demands in the Newsboy-Type Problem
Authors: Pankaj Dutta, Debjani Chakraborty
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This paper investigates the effect of product substitution in the single-period 'newsboy-type' problem in a fuzzy environment. It is supposed that the single-period problem operates under uncertainty in customer demand, which is described by imprecise terms and modelled by fuzzy sets. To perform this analysis, we consider the fuzzy model for two-item with upward substitution. This upward substitutability is reasonable when the products can be stored according to certain attribute levels such as quality, brand or package size. We show that the explicit consideration of this substitution opportunity increase the average expected profit. Computational study is performed to observe the benefits of product's substitution.Keywords: Fuzzy demand, Newsboy, Single-period problem, Substitution.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 141125240 Schmitt Trigger Based SRAM Using Finfet Technology- Shorted Gate Mode
Authors: Vasundara Patel K. S., Harsha N. Bhushan, Kiran G. Gadag, Nischal Prasad B. N., Mohmmed Haroon
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The most widely used semiconductor memory types are the Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) and Static Random Access memory (SRAM). Competition among memory manufacturers drives the need to decrease power consumption and reduce the probability of read failure. A technology that is relatively new and has not been explored is the FinFET technology. In this paper, a single cell Schmitt Trigger Based Static RAM using FinFET technology is proposed and analyzed. The accuracy of the result is validated by means of HSPICE simulations with 32nm FinFET technology and the results are then compared with 6T SRAM using the same technology.
Keywords: Schmitt trigger based SRAM, FinFET, and Static Noise Margin.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 283925239 Automated Inspection Algorithm for Thick Plate Using Dual Light Switching Lighting Method
Authors: Yong-JuJeon, Doo-chul Choi, Jong Pil Yun, Changhyun Park, Homoon Bae, Sang Woo Kim
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This paper presents an automated inspection algorithm for a thick plate. Thick plates typically have various types of surface defects, such as scabs, scratches, and roller marks. These defects have individual characteristics including brightness and shape. Therefore, it is not simple to detect all the defects. In order to solve these problems and to detect defects more effectively, we propose a dual light switching lighting method and a defect detection algorithm based on Gabor filters.Keywords: Thick plate, Defect, Inspection, Gabor filter, Dual Light Switching.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 185925238 A Case Study of Limited Dynamic Voltage Frequency Scaling in Low-Power Processors
Authors: Hwan Su Jung, Ahn Jun Gil, Jong Tae Kim
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Power management techniques are necessary to save power in the microprocessor. By changing the frequency and/or operating voltage of processor, DVFS can control power consumption. In this paper, we perform a case study to find optimal power state transition for DVFS. We propose the equation to find the optimal ratio between executions of states while taking into account the deadline of processing time and the power state transition delay overhead. The experiment is performed on the Cortex-M4 processor, and average 6.5% power saving is observed when DVFS is applied under the deadline condition.
Keywords: Deadline, Dynamic Voltage Frequency Scaling, Power State Transition.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 94825237 Comparative Study of Eva and Waste Polymer Modified Bitumen
Authors: Mohammed Sadeque, K. A. Patil
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Polymer-modified bitumen is used to combat different pavement distresses and to increase the life span of pavement. Unmodified bitumen cannot perform better with the range extreme minimum and maximum pavement temperatures. The polymers commonly used to modify the bitumen are ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) styrene butadiene styrene (SBS). The aim this study to compare the performance of EVA modified bitumen with the bitumen modified by waste low density polyethylene (LDPE), polypropylene (PP) obtained from waste carry bags and waste tyre rubber (CR) to encourage the use of waste polymer whose disposal is big problem today, in place of costly virgin polymer. From the experimental study, it was found that waste polymers are also effective in improving the properties bitumen as that of virgin polymer.
Keywords: Waste plastic, LDPE, PP, Modified bitumen, EVA.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 366825236 Application of De Novo Programming Approach for Optimizing the Business Process
Authors: Z. Babic, I. Veza, A. Balic, M. Crnjac
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The linear programming model is sometimes difficult to apply in real business situations due to its assumption of proportionality. This paper shows an example of how to use De Novo programming approach instead of linear programming. In the De Novo programming, resources are not fixed like in linear programming but resource quantities depend only on available budget. Budget is a new, important element of the De Novo approach. Two different production situations are presented: increasing costs and quantity discounts of raw materials. The focus of this paper is on advantages of the De Novo approach in the optimization of production plan for production company which produces souvenirs made from famous stone from the island of Brac, one of the greatest islands from Croatia.Keywords: De Novo Programming, production plan, stone souvenirs, variable prices.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 123325235 Teaching Speaking Skills to Adult English Language Learners through ALM
Authors: Wichuda Kunnu, Aungkana Sukwises
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Audio-lingual Method (ALM) is a teaching approach that is claimed that ineffective for teaching second/foreign languages. Because some linguists and second/foreign language teachers believe that ALM is a rote learning style. However, this study is done on a belief that ALM will be able to solve Thais’ English speaking problem. This paper aims to report the findings on teaching English speaking to adult learners with an “adapted ALM”, one distinction of which is to use Thai as the medium language of instruction. The participants are consisted of 9 adult learners. They were allowed to speak English more freely using both the materials presented in the class and their background knowledge of English. At the end of the course, they spoke English more fluently, more confidently, to the extent that they applied what they learnt both in and outside the class.
Keywords: Teaching English, Audio Lingual Method.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 393725234 File Format of Flow Chart Simulation Software - CFlow
Authors: Syahanim Mohd Salleh, Zaihosnita Hood, Hairulliza Mohd Judi, Marini Abu Bakar
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CFlow is a flow chart software, it contains facilities to draw and evaluate a flow chart. A flow chart evaluation applies a simulation method to enable presentation of work flow in a flow chart solution. Flow chart simulation of CFlow is executed by manipulating the CFlow data file which is saved in a graphical vector format. These text-based data are organised by using a data classification technic based on a Library classification-scheme. This paper describes the file format for flow chart simulation software of CFlow.Keywords: CFlow, flow chart, file format.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 253725233 Applying Different Working Fluids in a Combined Power and Ejector Refrigeration Cycle with Low Temperature Heat Sources
Authors: Samad Jafarmadar, Amin Habibzadeh
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A power and cooling cycle, which combines the organic Rankine cycle and the ejector refrigeration cycle supplied by waste heat energy sources, is discussed in this paper. 13 working fluids including wet, dry, and isentropic fluids are studied in order to find their performances on the combined cycle. Various operating conditions’ effects on the proposed cycle are examined by fixing power/refrigeration ratio. According to the results, dry and isentropic fluids have better performance compared with wet fluids.
Keywords: Combined power and refrigeration cycle, low temperature heat sources, organic rankine cycle, working fluids.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 84825232 Boundary Effect on the Onset of Marangoni Convection with Internal Heat Generation
Authors: Norihan Md Arifin, Norfifah Bachok
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The onset of Marangoni convection in a horizontal fluid layer with internal heat generation overlying a solid layer heated from below is studied. The upper free surface of a fluid is nondeformable and the bottom boundary are rigid and no-slip. The resulting eigenvalue problem is solved exactly. The critical values of the Marangoni numbers for the onset of Marangoni convection are calculated and the latter is found to be critically dependent on the internal heating, depth ratio and conductivity ratio. The effects of the thermal conductivity and the thickness of the solid plate on the onset of convective instability with internal heating are studied in detail.Keywords: Linear stability, Marangoni convection, Internal Heatgeneration.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 146425231 Second Order Admissibilities in Multi-parameter Logistic Regression Model
Authors: Chie Obayashi, Hidekazu Tanaka, Yoshiji Takagi
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In multi-parameter family of distributions, conditions for a modified maximum likelihood estimator to be second order admissible are given. Applying these results to the multi-parameter logistic regression model, it is shown that the maximum likelihood estimator is always second order inadmissible. Also, conditions for the Berkson estimator to be second order admissible are given.Keywords: Berkson estimator, modified maximum likelihood estimator, Multi-parameter logistic regression model, second order admissibility.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 160225230 A Comparative Study on Air Permeability Properties of Multilayered Nonwoven Structures
Authors: M. Kucukali Ozturk, B. Nergis, C. Candan
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Air permeability plays an important role for applications such as filtration, thermal and acoustic insulation. The study discussed in this paper was conducted in an attempt to investigate air permeability property of various combinations of nonwovens. The PROWHITE air permeability tester was used for the measurement of the air permeability of the samples in accordance with the relevant standards and a comparative study of the results were made. It was found that the fabric mass per unit area was closely related to the air-permeability. The air permeability decreased with the increase in mass per unit area. Additionally, the air permeability of nonwoven fabrics decreased with the increase in thickness. Moreover, air permeability of multilayered SMS nonwoven structures was lower than those of single layered ones.
Keywords: Air permeability, mass per unit area, nonwoven structure, polypropylene nonwoven, thickness.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 164425229 Static Voltage Stability Margin Enhancement Using SVC and TCSC
Authors: Mohammed Amroune, Hadi Sebaa, Tarek Bouktir
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Reactive power limit of power system is one of the major causes of voltage instability. The only way to save the system from voltage instability is to reduce the reactive power load or add additional reactive power to reaching the point of voltage collapse. In recent times, the application of FACTS devices is a very effective solution to prevent voltage instability due to their fast and very flexible control. In this paper, voltage stability assessment with SVC and TCSC devices is investigated and compared in the modified IEEE 30-bus test system. The fast voltage stability indicator (FVSI) is used to identify weakest bus and to assess the voltage stability of power system.
Keywords: SVC, TCSC, Voltage stability, Fast Voltage Stability Index (FVSI), Reactive power.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 406225228 Behavior Fatigue Life of Wind Turbine Rotor with Longitudinal Crack Growth
Authors: S. Lecheb, A. Nour, A. Chellil, H. Mechakra, N. Hamad, H. Kebir
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This study concerned the dynamic behavior of the wind turbine rotor. Before all we have studied the loads applied to the rotor, which allows the knowledge their effect on the fatigue, also studied the rotor with longitudinal crack in order to determine stress, strain and displacement. Firstly we compared the first six modes shapes between cracking and uncracking of HAWT rotor. Secondly we show show evolution of first six natural frequencies with longitudinal crack propagation. Finally we conclude that the residual change in the natural frequencies can be used as in shaft crack diagnosis predictive maintenance.
Keywords: Wind turbine rotor, natural frequencies, longitudinal crack growth, life time.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 218525227 Currency Exchange Rate Forecasts Using Quantile Regression
Authors: Yuzhi Cai
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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.
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