Search results for: nonlinear aerostatic stability.

Authors: M. B. Meenavathi, K. Rajesh

Abstract:

Color image segmentation plays an important role in computer vision and image processing areas. In this paper, the features of Volterra filter are utilized for color image segmentation. The discrete Volterra filter exhibits both linear and nonlinear characteristics. The linear part smoothes the image features in uniform gray zones and is used for getting a gross representation of objects of interest. The nonlinear term compensates for the blurring due to the linear term and preserves the edges which are mainly used to distinguish the various objects. The truncated quadratic Volterra filters are mainly used for edge preserving along with Gaussian noise cancellation. In our approach, the segmentation is based on K-means clustering algorithm in HSI space. Both the hue and the intensity components are fully utilized. For hue clustering, the special cyclic property of the hue component is taken into consideration. The experimental results show that the proposed technique segments the color image while preserving significant features and removing noise effects.

Keywords: Color image segmentation, HSI space, K–means clustering, Volterra filter.

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Authors: C. B. Vishwakarma

Abstract:

The author presented a method for model order reduction of large-scale time-invariant systems in time domain. In this approach, two modified Hankel matrices are suggested for getting reduced order models. The proposed method is simple, efficient and retains stability feature of the original high order system. The viability of the method is illustrated through the examples taken from literature.

Keywords: Model Order Reduction, Stability, Hankel Matrix, Time-Domain, Integral Square Error.

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Authors: N. Tadrisi Parsa, A. R. Vali, R. Ghasemi

Abstract:

Diabetes is a growing health problem in worldwide. Especially, the patients with Type 1 diabetes need strict glycemic control because they have deficiency of insulin production. This paper attempts to control blood glucose based on body mathematical body model. The Bergman minimal mathematical model is used to develop the nonlinear controller. A novel back-stepping based sliding mode control (B-SMC) strategy is proposed as a solution that guarantees practical tracking of a desired glucose concentration. In order to show the performance of the proposed design, it is compared with conventional linear and fuzzy controllers which have been done in previous researches. The numerical simulation result shows the advantages of sliding mode back stepping controller design to linear and fuzzy controllers.

Keywords: Back stepping, Bergman Model, Nonlinear control, Sliding mode control.

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Authors: Lianglin Xiong, Shouming Zhong, Mao Ye

Abstract:

This paper considers the robust exponential stability issues for a class of uncertain switched neutral system which delays switched according to the switching rule. The system under consideration includes both stable and unstable subsystems. The uncertainties considered in this paper are norm bounded, and possibly time varying. Based on multiple Lyapunov functional approach and dwell-time technique, the time-dependent switching rule is designed depend on the so-called average dwell time of stable subsystems as well as the ratio of the total activation time of stable subsystems and unstable subsystems. It is shown that by suitably controlling the switching between the stable and unstable modes, the robust stabilization of the switched uncertain neutral systems can be achieved. Two simulation examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Switched neutral system, exponential stability, multiple Lyapunov functional, dwell time technique, time-dependent switching rule.

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Authors: Rahib Hidayat Abiyev

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of recurrent neural network based fuzzy inference system for identification and control of dynamic nonlinear plant. The structure and algorithms of fuzzy system based on recurrent neural network are described. To train unknown parameters of the system the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The neuro-fuzzy system is used for the identification and control of nonlinear dynamic plant. The simulation results of identification and control systems based on recurrent neuro-fuzzy network are compared with the simulation results of other neural systems. It is found that the recurrent neuro-fuzzy based system has better performance than the others.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, neural network, neuro-fuzzy system, control system.

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Authors: M. J. Fadaee, H. Saffari, H. Khosravi

Abstract:

Shear walls are used in most of the tall buildings for carrying the lateral load. When openings for doors or windows are necessary to be existed in the shear walls, a special type of the shear walls is used called "coupled shear walls" which in some cases is stiffened by specific beams and so, called "stiffened coupled shear walls". In this paper, a mathematical method for geometrically nonlinear analysis of the stiffened coupled shear walls has been presented. Then, a suitable formulation for determining the critical load of the stiffened coupled shear walls under gravity force has been proposed. The governing differential equations for equilibrium and deformation of the stiffened coupled shear walls have been obtained by setting up the equilibrium equations and the moment-curvature relationships for each wall. Because of the complexity of the differential equation, the energy method has been adopted for approximate solution of the equations.

Keywords: Buckling load, differential equation, energy method, geometrically nonlinear analysis, mathematical method, Stiffened coupled shear walls.

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Authors: R. Hacıoğlu, A. Genç, B. Bakırcı

Abstract:

Metal working fluids were used in the preparation of oil in water emulsions. The size of oil droplets were evaluated by using the analysis of video images taken from the zeta potential measurements. The evaluated size distributions for emulsions were also tested by microscopic analysis. In addition, emulsion stabilities were discussed depending on electrolyte concentration and pH. The results showed that the stability of oil emulsions was strongly related to pH and the concentration of CaCl₂. However, the same dependency was not observed for NaCl.

Keywords: Droplet size distribution, emulsion stability, o/w emulsions, video images.

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Authors: B. Vahdani, R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, A. Baboli, S. M. Mousavi

Abstract:

Focusing on the environmental issues, including the reduction of scrap and consumer residuals, along with the benefiting from the economic value during the life cycle of goods/products leads the companies to have an important competitive approach. The aim of this paper is to present a new mixed nonlinear facility locationallocation model in recycling collection networks by considering multi-echelon, multi-suppliers, multi-collection centers and multifacilities in the recycling network. To make an appropriate decision in reality, demands, returns, capacities, costs and distances, are regarded uncertain in our model. For this purpose, a fuzzy mathematical programming-based possibilistic approach is introduced as a solution methodology from the recent literature to solve the proposed mixed-nonlinear programming model (MNLP). The computational experiments are provided to illustrate the applicability of the designed model in a supply chain environment and to help the decision makers to facilitate their analysis.

Keywords: Location-allocation model, recycling collection networks, fuzzy mathematical programming.

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Authors: Xia Cui, Guang-wei Yuan, Jing-yan Yue

Abstract:

A Picard-Newton iteration method is studied to accelerate the numerical solution procedure of a class of two-dimensional nonlinear coupled parabolic-hyperbolic system. The Picard-Newton iteration is designed by adding higher-order terms of small quantity to an existing Picard iteration. The discrete functional analysis and inductive hypothesis reasoning techniques are used to overcome difficulties coming from nonlinearity and coupling, and theoretical analysis is made for the convergence and approximation properties of the iteration scheme. The Picard-Newton iteration has a quadratic convergent ratio, and its solution has second order spatial approximation and first order temporal approximation to the exact solution of the original problem. Numerical tests verify the results of the theoretical analysis, and show the Picard-Newton iteration is more efficient than the Picard iteration.

Keywords: Nonlinearity, iterative acceleration, coupled parabolic hyperbolic system, quadratic convergence, numerical analysis.

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Authors: Sheela Tiwari, R. Naresh, R. Jha

Abstract:

The paper presents an investigation in to the effect of neural network predictive control of UPFC on the transient stability performance of a multimachine power system. The proposed controller consists of a neural network model of the test system. This model is used to predict the future control inputs using the damped Gauss-Newton method which employs ‘backtracking’ as the line search method for step selection. The benchmark 2 area, 4 machine system that mimics the behavior of large power systems is taken as the test system for the study and is subjected to three phase short circuit faults at different locations over a wide range of operating conditions. The simulation results clearly establish the robustness of the proposed controller to the fault location, an increase in the critical clearing time for the circuit breakers, and an improved damping of the power oscillations as compared to the conventional PI controller.

Keywords: Identification, Neural networks, Predictive control, Transient stability, UPFC.

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Authors: P. Selvam, S. Senthil Kumar

Abstract:

Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) has played a vital role to enhance the efficiency of solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation under varying atmospheric temperature and solar irradiation. However, it is hard to track the maximum power point using conventional linear controllers due to the natural inheritance of nonlinear I-V and P-V characteristics of solar PV systems. Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC) is suitable for nonlinear system control applications and eliminating oscillations, circuit complexities present in the conventional perturb and observation and incremental conductance methods respectively. Hence, in this paper, FLC is proposed for tracking exact MPPT of solar PV power generation system under varying solar irradiation conditions. The effectiveness of the proposed FLC-based MPPT controller is validated through simulation and analysis using MATLAB/Simulink.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic controller, maximum power point tracking, photovoltaic.

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Authors: N. Hataivichian, K. Suriye, S. Kunjara Na Ayudhya, P. Praserthdam, S. Phatanasri

Abstract:

The effect of transition metal doping on Pt/Al2O3 catalyst used in propane dehydrogenation reaction at 500°C was studied. The preparation methods investigated were sequential impregnation (Pt followed by the 2nd metal or the 2nd metal followed by Pt) and co-impregnation. The metal contents of these catalysts were fixed as the weight ratio of Pt per the 2nd metal of around 0.075. These catalysts were characterized by N2-physisorption, TPR, COchemisorption and NH3-TPD. It was found that the impregnated 2nd metal had an effect upon reducibility of Pt due to its interaction with transition metal-containing structure. This was in agreement with the CO-chemisorption result that the presence of Pt metal, which is a result from Pt species reduction, was decreased. The total acidity of bimetallic catalysts is decreased but the strong acidity is slightly increased. It was found that the stability of bimetallic catalysts prepared by co-impregnation and sequential impregnation where the 2nd metal was impregnated before Pt were better than that of monometallic catalyst (undoped Pt one) due to the forming of Pt sites located on the transition metal-oxide modified surface. Among all preparation methods, the sequential impregnation method- having Pt impregnated before the 2nd metal gave the worst stability because this catalyst lacked the modified Pt sites and some fraction of Pt sites was covered by the 2nd metal.

Keywords: Alumina, dehydrogenation, platinum, transition metal.

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Authors: Eleni Aggelogiannaki, Haralambos Sarimveis

Abstract:

In this work, a radial basis function (RBF) neural network is developed for the identification of hyperbolic distributed parameter systems (DPSs). This empirical model is based only on process input-output data and used for the estimation of the controlled variables at specific locations, without the need of online solution of partial differential equations (PDEs). The nonlinear model that is obtained is suitably transformed to a nonlinear state space formulation that also takes into account the model mismatch. A stable robust control law is implemented for the attenuation of external disturbances. The proposed identification and control methodology is applied on a long duct, a common component of thermal systems, for a flow based control of temperature distribution. The closed loop performance is significantly improved in comparison to existing control methodologies.

Keywords: Hyperbolic Distributed Parameter Systems, Radial Basis Function Neural Networks, H∞ control, Thermal systems.

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Authors: Safae El Alaoui, Mohamed Ouzahra

Abstract:

In this work, we investigate the exponential stability of a linear system described by x˙ (t) = Ax(t) − ρBx(t). Here, A generates a semigroup S(t) on a Hilbert space, the operator B is supposed to be of Desch-Schappacher type, which makes the investigation more interesting in many applications. The case of Miyadera-Voigt perturbations is also considered. Sufficient conditions are formulated in terms of admissibility and observability inequalities and the approach is based on some energy estimates. Finally, the obtained results are applied to prove the uniform exponential stabilization of bilinear partial differential equations.

Keywords: Exponential stabilization, unbounded operator, Desch-Schappacher, Miyadera-Voigt operator.

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Authors: Jai Raj, Jito Vanualailai, Bibhya Sharma, Shonal Singh

Abstract:

This paper proposes a solution to the motion planning and control problem of car-like mobile robots which is required to move safely to a designated target in a priori known workspace cluttered with swarm of boids exhibiting collective emergent behaviors. A generalized algorithm for target convergence and swarm avoidance is proposed that will work for any number of swarms. The control laws proposed in this paper also ensures practical stability of the system. The effectiveness of the proposed control laws are demonstrated via computer simulations of an emergent behavior.

Keywords: Swarm, practical stability, motion planning, emergent.

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Authors: Zixin Liu, Shu Lü, Shouming Zhong, Mao Ye

Abstract:

This paper studies the pth moment exponential synchronization of a class of stochastic neural networks with mixed delays. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, by establishing a new integrodifferential inequality with mixed delays, several sufficient conditions have been derived to ensure the pth moment exponential stability for the error system. The criteria extend and improve some earlier results. One numerical example is presented to illustrate the validity of the main results.

Keywords: pth Moment Exponential synchronization, Stochastic, Neural networks, Mixed time delays

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Authors: M. Elsisi, M. Soliman, M. A. S. Aboelela, W. Mansour

Abstract:

This paper considers the design of Dual Proportional- Integral (DPI) Load Frequency Control (LFC), using gravitational search algorithm (GSA). The design is carried out for nonlinear hydrothermal power system where generation rate constraint (GRC) and governor dead band are considered. Furthermore, time delays imposed by governor-turbine, thermodynamic process, and communication channels are investigated. GSA is utilized to search for optimal controller parameters by minimizing a time-domain based objective function. GSA-based DPI has been compared to Ziegler- Nichols based PI, and Genetic Algorithm (GA) based PI controllers in order to demonstrate the superior efficiency of the proposed design. Simulation results are carried for a wide range of operating conditions and system parameters variations.

Keywords: Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA), Load Frequency Control (LFC), Dual Proportional-Integral (DPI) controller.

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Authors: J. Vaseghi, S.Navaei, B. Navayinia, F. Roshantabari

Abstract:

In This paper, the behavior of eccentric braced frame (EBF) is studied with replacing friction damper (FD) in confluence of these braces, in 5 and 10-storey steel frames. For FD system, the main step is to determine the slip load. For this reason, the performance indexes include roof displacement, base shear, dissipated energy and relative performance should be investigated. In nonlinear dynamic analysis, the response of structure to three earthquake records has been obtained and the values of roof displacement, base shear and column axial force for FD and EBF frames have been compared. The results demonstrate that use of the FD in frames, in comparison with the EBF, substantially reduces the roof displacement, column axial force and base shear. The obtained results show suitable performance of FD in higher storey structure in comparison with the EBF.

Keywords: Friction Damper (FD), Slip Load, Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis, Performance Index.

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Authors: Konghe Xie

Abstract:

Two consensus problems are considered in this paper. One is the consensus of linear multi-agent systems with weakly connected directed communication topology. The other is the consensus of nonlinear multi-agent systems with strongly connected directed communication topology. For the first problem, a simplified consensus protocol is designed: Each child agent can only communicate with one of its neighbors. That is, the real communication topology is a directed spanning tree of the original communication topology and without any cycles. Then, the necessary and sufficient condition is put forward to the multi-agent systems can be reached consensus. It is worth noting that the given conditions do not need any eigenvalue of the corresponding Laplacian matrix of the original directed communication network. For the second problem, the feedback gain is designed in the nonlinear consensus protocol. Then, the sufficient condition is proposed such that the systems can be achieved consensus. Besides, the consensus interval is introduced and analyzed to solve the consensus problem. Finally, two numerical simulations are included to verify the theoretical analysis.

Keywords: Consensus, multi-agent systems, directed spanning tree, the Laplacian matrix.

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Authors: Pashayev A., Askerov D., C. Ardil, Sadiqov R., Abdullayev P.

Abstract:

Groundlessness of application probability-statistic methods are especially shown at an early stage of the aviation GTE technical condition diagnosing, when the volume of the information has property of the fuzzy, limitations, uncertainty and efficiency of application of new technology Soft computing at these diagnosing stages by using the fuzzy logic and neural networks methods. It is made training with high accuracy of multiple linear and nonlinear models (the regression equations) received on the statistical fuzzy data basis. At the information sufficiency it is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and nonlinear generalized models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive least squares method (LSM)). As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine D30KU-154 technical condition at height H=10600 m was made.

Keywords: Identification of a technical condition, aviation gasturbine engine, fuzzy logic and neural networks.

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Authors: Peter Drotar, Juraj Gazda, Pavol Galajda, Dusan Kocur

Abstract:

The study in this paper underlines the importance of correct joint selection of the spreading codes for uplink of multicarrier code division multiple access (MC-CDMA) at the transmitter side and detector at the receiver side in the presence of nonlinear distortion due to high power amplifier (HPA). The bit error rate (BER) of system for different spreading sequences (Walsh code, Gold code, orthogonal Gold code, Golay code and Zadoff-Chu code) and different kinds of receivers (minimum mean-square error receiver (MMSE-MUD) and microstatistic multi-user receiver (MSF-MUD)) is compared by means of simulations for MC-CDMA transmission system. Finally, the results of analysis will show, that the application of MSF-MUD in combination with Golay codes can outperform significantly the other tested spreading codes and receivers for all mostly used models of HPA.

Keywords: HPA, MC-CDMA, microstatistic filter, multi-user receivers, PAPR.

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Authors: Wudhichai Assawinchaichote, Sing Kiong Nguang

Abstract:

This paper examines the problem of designing a robust H∞ filter for a class of uncertain fuzzy descriptor systems described by a Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model. Based on a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, LMI-based sufficient conditions for the uncertain nonlinear descriptor systems to have an H∞ performance are derived. To alleviate the ill-conditioning resulting from the interaction of slow and fast dynamic modes, solutions to the problem are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities which are independent of the singular perturbation ε, when ε is sufficiently small. The proposed approach does not involve the separation of states into slow and fast ones and it can be applied not only to standard, but also to nonstandard uncertain nonlinear descriptor systems. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the design developed in this paper.

Keywords: H∞ control, Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model, Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs), Descriptor systems.

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Authors: Samy E. Oraby, Ayman M. Alaskari

Abstract:

The importance of machining process in today-s industry requires the establishment of more practical approaches to clearly represent the intimate and severe contact on the tool-chipworkpiece interfaces. Mathematical models are developed using the measured force signals to relate each of the tool-chip friction components on the rake face to the operating cutting parameters in rough turning operation using multilayers coated carbide inserts. Nonlinear modeling proved to have high capability to detect the nonlinear functional variability embedded in the experimental data. While feedrate is found to be the most influential parameter on the friction coefficient and its related force components, both cutting speed and depth of cut are found to have slight influence. Greater deformed chip thickness is found to lower the value of friction coefficient as the sliding length on the tool-chip interface is reduced.

Keywords: Mathematical modeling, Cutting forces, Frictionforces, Friction coefficient and Chip ratio.

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Authors: Pashayev A., Askerov D., C. Ardil, Sadiqov R., Abdullayev P.

Abstract:

Groundlessness of application probability-statistic methods are especially shown at an early stage of the aviation GTE technical condition diagnosing, when the volume of the information has property of the fuzzy, limitations, uncertainty and efficiency of application of new technology Soft computing at these diagnosing stages by using the fuzzy logic and neural networks methods. It is made training with high accuracy of multiple linear and nonlinear models (the regression equations) received on the statistical fuzzy data basis. At the information sufficiency it is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and nonlinear generalized models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive least squares method (LSM)). As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine D30KU-154 technical condition at height H=10600 m was made.

Keywords: Identification of a technical condition, aviation gasturbine engine, fuzzy logic and neural networks.

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Authors: B. X. Tchomeni, A. A. Alugongo, L. M. Masu

Abstract:

This paper presents a 4-DOF nonlinear model of a cracked de Laval rotor-stator system derived based on Energy Principles. The model has been used to simulate coupled torsionallateral response of the faulty system with multiple parametric excitations; rotor-stator-rub, a breathing transverse crack, eccentric mass and an axial force. Nonlinearity of a “breathing” crack is incorporated in the model using a simple hinge mechanism suitable for a shallow crack. Response of the system while passing via its critical speed with intermittent rotor-stator rub is analyzed. Effects of eccentricity with phase and acceleration are investigated. Features of crack, rub and eccentricity in vibration response are explored for condition monitoring. The presence of a crack and rub are observable in the power spectrum despite excitations by an axial force and rotor unbalance. Obtained results are consistent with existing literature and could be adopted into rotor condition monitoring strategies.

Keywords: Axial force, Crack, Nonlinear, Rotor-Stator, Rub.

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Authors: M. Derayatifar, M. Packirisamy, R.B. Bhat

Abstract:

Role of piezoelectric energy harvesters has gained interest in supplying power for micro devices such as health monitoring sensors. In this study, in order to enhance the piezoelectric energy harvesting in capturing energy from broader range of excitation and to improve the mechanical and electrical responses, bimorph piezoelectric energy harvester beam with magnetic mass attached at the end is presented. In view of overcoming the brittleness of piezo-ceramics, functionally graded piezoelectric layers comprising of both piezo-ceramic and piezo-polymer is employed. The nonlinear equations of motions are derived using energy method and then solved analytically using perturbation scheme. The frequency responses of the forced vibration case are obtained for the near resonance case. The nonlinear dynamic responses of the MEMS scaled functionally graded piezoelectric energy harvester in this paper may be utilized in different design scenarios to increase the efficiency of the harvester.

Keywords: Energy harvesting, functionally graded piezoelectric material, magnetic force, MEMS piezoelectric, perturbation method.

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Authors: Katleho D. Makatjane, Kalebe M. Kalebe

Abstract:

The present paper used time-varying parameters which are based on the score function of a probability density at time t to model volatility of saving rate. We used a scaled likelihood function to update the parameters of the model overtime. Our results revealed high diligence of time-varying since the location parameter is greater than zero. Furthermore, we discovered a leptokurtic condition on saving rate’s distribution. Kapetanios, Shin-Shell Nonlinear Augmented Dickey-Fuller (KSS-NADF) test showed that the saving rate has a nonlinear unit root; therefore, it can be modeled by a generalised autoregressive score (GAS) model. Additionally, value at risk (VaR) and conditional tail expectation (CTE) indicate that 99% of the time people in Lesotho are saving more than spending. This puts the economy in high risk of not expanding. Therefore, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of Lesotho should revise their monetary policies towards this high saving rates risk.

Keywords: Generalized autoregressive score, time-varying, saving rate, Lesotho.

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Authors: K. Shakeri, M. Mohebbi

Abstract:

In order to consider the effects of the higher modes in the pushover analysis, during the recent years several multi-modal pushover procedures have been presented. In these methods the response of the considered modes are combined by the square-rootof- sum-of-squares (SRSS) rule while application of the elastic modal combination rules in the inelastic phases is no longer valid. In this research the feasibility of defining an efficient alternative combination method is investigated. Two steel moment-frame buildings denoted SAC-9 and SAC-20 under ten earthquake records are considered. The nonlinear responses of the structures are estimated by the directed algebraic combination of the weighted responses of the separate modes. The weight of the each mode is defined so that the resulted response of the combination has a minimum error to the nonlinear time history analysis. The genetic algorithm (GA) is used to minimize the error and optimize the weight factors. The obtained optimal factors for each mode in different cases are compared together to find unique appropriate weight factors for each mode in all cases.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Modal Pushover, Optimalweight.

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Authors: Mohamed Omar

Abstract:

Steel bracing members are widely used in steel  structures to reduce lateral displacement and dissipate energy during  earthquake motions. Concentric steel bracing provide an excellent  approach for strengthening and stiffening steel buildings. Using these  braces the designer can hardly adjust the stiffness together with  ductility as needed because of buckling of braces in compression. In  this study the use of SMA bracing and steel bracing (Mega) utilized  in steel frames are investigated. The effectiveness of these two  systems in rehabilitating a mid-rise eight-storey steel frames were  examined using time-history nonlinear analysis utilizing seismostruct  software. Results show that both systems improve the strength and  stiffness of the original structure but due to excellent behavior of  SMA in nonlinear phase and under compressive forces this system  shows much better performance than the rehabilitation system of  Mega bracing.

 

Keywords: Finite element analysis, seismic response, shapes memory alloy, steel frame, mega bracing.

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Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid b. Ali, Loh Wei Ping, Mohsen Mohammadzadeh

Abstract:

Uncertainties of a serial production line affect on the production throughput. The uncertainties cannot be prevented in a real production line. However the uncertain conditions can be controlled by a robust prediction model. Thus, a hybrid model including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiple polynomial regression, is proposed to model the nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput. The uncertainties under consideration of this study are demand, breaktime, scrap, and lead-time. The nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput are examined in the form of quadratic and cubic regression models, where the adjusted R-squared for quadratic and cubic regressions was 98.3% and 98.2%. We optimized the multiple quadratic regression (MQR) by considering the time series trend of the uncertainties using ARIMA model. Finally the hybrid model of ARIMA and MQR is formulated by better adjusted R-squared, which is 98.9%.

Keywords: ARIMA, multiple polynomial regression, production throughput, uncertainties

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