Search results for: Vector error correction model.

Authors: Mehdi Amoui, Mohammad Zarafshan, Caro Lucas

Abstract:

In spite of all advancement in software testing, debugging remains a labor-intensive, manual, time consuming, and error prone process. A candidate solution to enhance debugging process is to fuse it with testing process. To achieve this integration, a possible solution may be categorizing common software tests and errors followed by the effort on fixing the errors through general solutions for each test/error pair. Our approach to address this issue is based on Christopher Alexander-s pattern and pattern language concepts. The patterns in this language are grouped into three major sections and connect the three concepts of test, error, and debug. These patterns and their hierarchical relationship shape a pattern language that introduces a solution to solve software errors in a known testing context. Finally, we will introduce our developed framework ADE as a sample implementation to support a pattern of proposed language, which aims to automate the whole process of evolving software design via evolutionary methods.

Keywords: Coding Errors, Software debugging, Testing, Patterns, Pattern Language

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Authors: M. Gooroochurn, M. Ovinis, D. Kerr, K. Bouazza-Marouf, M. Vloeberghs

Abstract:

A registration framework for image-guided robotic surgery is proposed for three emergency neurosurgical procedures, namely Intracranial Pressure (ICP) Monitoring, External Ventricular Drainage (EVD) and evacuation of a Chronic Subdural Haematoma (CSDH). The registration paradigm uses CT and white light as modalities. This paper presents two simulation studies for a preliminary evaluation of the registration protocol: (1) The loci of the Target Registration Error (TRE) in the patient-s axial, coronal and sagittal views were simulated based on a Fiducial Localisation Error (FLE) of 5 mm and (2) Simulation of the actual framework using projected views from a surface rendered CT model to represent white light images of the patient. Craniofacial features were employed as the registration basis to map the CT space onto the simulated intraoperative space. Photogrammetry experiments on an artificial skull were also performed to benchmark the results obtained from the second simulation. The results of both simulations show that the proposed protocol can provide a 5mm accuracy for these neurosurgical procedures.

Keywords: Image-guided Surgery, Multimodality Registration, Photogrammetry, Preoperative to Intraoperative Registration.

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Authors: Fatma Ghangir, Andrzej F. Nowakowski, Franck C. G. A. Nicolleau, Thomas M. Michelitsch

Abstract:

The performance of high-resolution schemes is investigated for unsteady, inviscid and compressible multiphase flows. An Eulerian diffuse interface approach has been chosen for the simulation of multicomponent flow problems. The reduced fiveequation and seven equation models are used with HLL and HLLC approximation. The authors demonstrated the advantages and disadvantages of both seven equations and five equations models studying their performance with HLL and HLLC algorithms on simple test case. The seven equation model is based on two pressure, two velocity concept of Baer–Nunziato [10], while five equation model is based on the mixture velocity and pressure. The numerical evaluations of two variants of Riemann solvers have been conducted for the classical one-dimensional air-water shock tube and compared with analytical solution for error analysis.

Keywords: Multiphase flow, gas-liquid flow, Godunov schems, Riemann solvers, HLL scheme, HLLC scheme.

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Authors: Raed H. Allawi

Abstract:

Fracture pressure is the main parameter applied in wells design and used to avoid drilling problems like lost circulation. Thus, this study aims to predict the fracture pressure of oil reservoirs in the southern Iraq Oilfield. The data required to implement this study included bulk density, compression wave velocity, gamma-ray, and leak-off test. In addition, this model is based on the pore pressure which is measured based on the Modular Formation Dynamics Tester (MDT). Many measured values of pore pressure were used to validate the accurate model. Using sonic velocity approaches, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was about 4%. The fracture pressure results were consistent with the measurement data, actual drilling report, and events. The model's results will be a guide for successful drilling in future wells in the same oilfield.

Keywords: Pore pressure, fracture pressure, overburden pressure, effective stress, drilling events.

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Authors: Rehab F. Abdel-Kader, Rabab M. Ramadan, Rawya Y. Rizk

Abstract:

The recognition of human faces, especially those with different orientations is a challenging and important problem in image analysis and classification. This paper proposes an effective scheme for rotation invariant face recognition using Log-Polar Transform and Discrete Cosine Transform combined features. The rotation invariant feature extraction for a given face image involves applying the logpolar transform to eliminate the rotation effect and to produce a row shifted log-polar image. The discrete cosine transform is then applied to eliminate the row shift effect and to generate the low-dimensional feature vector. A PSO-based feature selection algorithm is utilized to search the feature vector space for the optimal feature subset. Evolution is driven by a fitness function defined in terms of maximizing the between-class separation (scatter index). Experimental results, based on the ORL face database using testing data sets for images with different orientations; show that the proposed system outperforms other face recognition methods. The overall recognition rate for the rotated test images being 97%, demonstrating that the extracted feature vector is an effective rotation invariant feature set with minimal set of selected features.

Keywords: Discrete Cosine Transform, Face Recognition, Feature Extraction, Log Polar Transform, Particle SwarmOptimization.

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Authors: Reza Ebrahimpour, Samaneh Hamedi

Abstract:

Classifier fusion may generate more accurate classification than each of the basic classifiers. Fusion is often based on fixed combination rules like the product, average etc. This paper presents decision templates as classifier fusion method for the recognition of the handwritten English and Farsi numerals (1-9). The process involves extracting a feature vector on well-known image databases. The extracted feature vector is fed to multiple classifier fusion. A set of experiments were conducted to compare decision templates (DTs) with some combination rules. Results from decision templates conclude 97.99% and 97.28% for Farsi and English handwritten digits.

Keywords: Decision templates, multi-layer perceptron, characteristics Loci, principle component analysis (PCA).

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Authors: Rohit Choudhry, Kumkum Garg

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a hybrid machine learning system based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for stock market prediction. A variety of indicators from the technical analysis field of study are used as input features. We also make use of the correlation between stock prices of different companies to forecast the price of a stock, making use of technical indicators of highly correlated stocks, not only the stock to be predicted. The genetic algorithm is used to select the set of most informative input features from among all the technical indicators. The results show that the hybrid GA-SVM system outperforms the stand alone SVM system.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines, Stock Market Forecasting.

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Authors: Peter Podbreznik, Božidar Potocnik

Abstract:

The camera parameters are changed due to temperature variations, which directly influence calibrated cameras accuracy. Robustness of calibration methods were measured and their accuracy was tested. An error ratio due to camera parameters change with respect to total error originated during calibration process was determined. It pointed out that influence of temperature variations decrease by increasing distance of observed objects from cameras.

Keywords: camera calibration, perspective projection matrix, epipolar geometry, temperature variation.

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Authors: K. Benamrane, T. Abdelkrim, T. Benslimane, Aeh. Benkhelifa, B. Bezza

Abstract:

This paper presents a comparison between two Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) algorithms applied to a three-level Neutral Point Clamped (NPC) Voltage Source Inverter (VSI). The first algorithm applied is the triangular-sinusoidal strategy; the second is the Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) strategy. In the first part, we present a topology of three-level NCP VSI. After that, we develop the two PWM strategies to control this converter. At the end the experimental results are presented.

Keywords: Multilevel inverter, Space vector pulse width modulation (SVPWM), triangular-sinusoidal strategy.

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Authors: M. Khelil, M. Boudraa, A. Kechida, R. Drai

Abstract:

Analyses carried out on examples of detected defects echoes showed clearly that one can describe these detected forms according to a whole of characteristic parameters in order to be able to make discrimination between a planar defect and a volumic defect. This work answers to a problem of ultrasonics NDT like Identification of the defects. The problems as well as the objective of this realized work, are divided in three parts: Extractions of the parameters of wavelets from the ultrasonic echo of the detected defect - the second part is devoted to principal components analysis (PCA) for optimization of the attributes vector. And finally to establish the algorithm of classification (SVM, Support Vector Machine) which allows discrimination between a plane defect and a volumic defect. We have completed this work by a conclusion where we draw up a summary of the completed works, as well as the robustness of the various algorithms proposed in this study.

Keywords: NDT, PCA, SVM, ultrasonics, wavelet

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Authors: Alpana Tiwari, N. K. Gaur

Abstract:

We have incorporated the translational rotational (TR) coupling effects in the framework of three body force shell model (TSM) to develop an extended TSM (ETSM). The dynamical matrix of ETSM has been applied to compute the phonon frequencies of orientationally disordered mixed crystal (ND4Br)x(KBr)1-x in (q00), (qq0) and (qqq) symmetry directions for compositions 0.10≤x≤0.50 at T=300K.These frequencies are plotted as a function of wave vector k. An unusual acoustic mode softening is found along symmetry directions (q00) and (qq0) as a result of translation-rotation coupling.

Keywords: Orientational glass, phonons, TR-coupling.

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Authors: Cheima Ben Soltane, Ittansa Yonas Kelbesa

Abstract:

Speaker Identification (SI) is the task of establishing identity of an individual based on his/her voice characteristics. The SI task is typically achieved by two-stage signal processing: training and testing. The training process calculates speaker specific feature parameters from the speech and generates speaker models accordingly. In the testing phase, speech samples from unknown speakers are compared with the models and classified. Even though performance of speaker identification systems has improved due to recent advances in speech processing techniques, there is still need of improvement. In this paper, a Closed-Set Tex-Independent Speaker Identification System (CISI) based on a Multiple Classifier System (MCS) is proposed, using Mel Frequency Cepstrum Coefficient (MFCC) as feature extraction and suitable combination of vector quantization (VQ) and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) together with Expectation Maximization algorithm (EM) for speaker modeling. The use of Voice Activity Detector (VAD) with a hybrid approach based on Short Time Energy (STE) and Statistical Modeling of Background Noise in the pre-processing step of the feature extraction yields a better and more robust automatic speaker identification system. Also investigation of Linde-Buzo-Gray (LBG) clustering algorithm for initialization of GMM, for estimating the underlying parameters, in the EM step improved the convergence rate and systems performance. It also uses relative index as confidence measures in case of contradiction in identification process by GMM and VQ as well. Simulation results carried out on voxforge.org speech database using MATLAB highlight the efficacy of the proposed method compared to earlier work.

Keywords: Feature Extraction, Speaker Modeling, Feature Matching, Mel Frequency Cepstrum Coefficient (MFCC), Gaussian mixture model (GMM), Vector Quantization (VQ), Linde-Buzo-Gray (LBG), Expectation Maximization (EM), pre-processing, Voice Activity Detection (VAD), Short Time Energy (STE), Background Noise Statistical Modeling, Closed-Set Tex-Independent Speaker Identification System (CISI).

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, a new MCDMA approach, the permanent analytics process is proposed to assess the immovable valuation criteria and their significance in the placement of the healthcare facility. Five decision factors are considered for the value and selection of immovables. In the multiple factor selection problems, the priority vector of the criteria used to compare several immovables is first determined using the permanent analytics method, a mathematical model for the multiple criteria decisionmaking process. Then, to demonstrate the viability and efficacy of the suggested approach, twenty potential candidate locations were evaluated using the hospital site selection problem's decision criteria. The ranking accuracy of estimation was evaluated using composite programming, which took into account both the permanent analytics process and the weighted multiplicative model. 

Keywords: Hospital Facility Location Selection, Permanent Analytics Process, Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)

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Authors: Jolly Shah, S.S.Rattan, B.C.Nakra

Abstract:

Automatic control of the robotic manipulator involves study of kinematics and dynamics as a major issue. This paper involves the forward and inverse kinematics of 2-DOF robotic manipulator with revolute joints. In this study the Denavit- Hartenberg (D-H) model is used to model robot links and joints. Also forward and inverse kinematics solution has been achieved using Artificial Neural Networks for 2-DOF robotic manipulator. It shows that by using artificial neural network the solution we get is faster, acceptable and has zero error.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Forward Kinematics, Inverse Kinematics, Robotic Manipulator

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Authors: M. R. Homaeinezhad, E. Tavakkoli, M. Habibi, S. A. Atyabi, A. Ghaffari

Abstract:

This paper describes a new supervised fusion (hybrid) electrocardiogram (ECG) classification solution consisting of a new QRS complex geometrical feature extraction as well as a new version of the learning vector quantization (LVQ) classification algorithm aimed for overcoming the stability-plasticity dilemma. Toward this objective, after detection and delineation of the major events of ECG signal via an appropriate algorithm, each QRS region and also its corresponding discrete wavelet transform (DWT) are supposed as virtual images and each of them is divided into eight polar sectors. Then, the curve length of each excerpted segment is calculated and is used as the element of the feature space. To increase the robustness of the proposed classification algorithm versus noise, artifacts and arrhythmic outliers, a fusion structure consisting of five different classifiers namely as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Modified Learning Vector Quantization (MLVQ) and three Multi Layer Perceptron-Back Propagation (MLP–BP) neural networks with different topologies were designed and implemented. The new proposed algorithm was applied to all 48 MIT–BIH Arrhythmia Database records (within–record analysis) and the discrimination power of the classifier in isolation of different beat types of each record was assessed and as the result, the average accuracy value Acc=98.51% was obtained. Also, the proposed method was applied to 6 number of arrhythmias (Normal, LBBB, RBBB, PVC, APB, PB) belonging to 20 different records of the aforementioned database (between– record analysis) and the average value of Acc=95.6% was achieved. To evaluate performance quality of the new proposed hybrid learning machine, the obtained results were compared with similar peer– reviewed studies in this area.

Keywords: Feature Extraction, Curve Length Method, SupportVector Machine, Learning Vector Quantization, Multi Layer Perceptron, Fusion (Hybrid) Classification, Arrhythmia Classification, Supervised Learning Machine.

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Authors: Venus Marza, Amin Seyyedi, Luiz Fernando Capretz

Abstract:

Software estimation accuracy is among the greatest challenges for software developers. This study aimed at building and evaluating a neuro-fuzzy model to estimate software projects development time. The forty-one modules developed from ten programs were used as dataset. Our proposed approach is compared with fuzzy logic and neural network model and Results show that the value of MMRE (Mean of Magnitude of Relative Error) applying neuro-fuzzy was substantially lower than MMRE applying fuzzy logic and neural network.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Fuzzy Logic, Neuro-Fuzzy, Software Estimation

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Authors: N. Nim-on, A. Oonsivilai

Abstract:

In this paper, the application of GRNN in modeling of SOFC fuel cells were studied. The parameters are of interested as voltage and power value and the current changes are investigated. In addition, the comparison between GRNN neural network application and conventional method was made. The error value showed the superlative results.

Keywords: SOFC, GRNN, Fuel cells.

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Authors: Mohsen Hayati, Yazdan Shirvany

Abstract:

In this paper, the application of neural networks to study the design of short-term load forecasting (STLF) Systems for Illam state located in west of Iran was explored. One important architecture of neural networks named Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) to model STLF systems was used. Our study based on MLP was trained and tested using three years (2004-2006) data. The results show that MLP network has the minimum forecasting error and can be considered as a good method to model the STLF systems.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Forecasting, Multi-layer perceptron.

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Authors: Bachir Belmadani, Rachid Taleb, Zinelaabidine Boudjema, Adil Yahdou

Abstract:

Carrier-based methods have been used widely for switching of multilevel inverters due to their simplicity, flexibility and reduced computational requirements compared to space vector modulation (SVM). This paper focuses on Multicarrier Sinusoidal Pulse Width Modulation (MCSPWM) strategy for the three phase Five-Level Flying Capacitor Inverter (5LFCI). The inverter is simulated for Induction Motor (IM) load and Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) for output waveforms is observed for different controlling schemes.

Keywords: Flying capacitor inverter, multicarrier sinusoidal pulse width modulation, space vector modulation, total harmonic distortion, induction motor.

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Authors: M. Mohagheghian, A. M. Ghaedi, A. Vafaei

Abstract:

An artificial neural network (ANN) model is presented for the prediction of kinematic viscosity of binary mixtures of poly (ethylene glycol) (PEG) in water as a function of temperature, number-average molecular weight and mass fraction. Kinematic viscosities data of aqueous solutions for PEG (0.55419×10-6 – 9.875×10-6 m2/s) were obtained from the literature for a wide range of temperatures (277.15 - 338.15 K), number-average molecular weight (200 -10000), and mass fraction (0.0 – 1.0). A three layer feed-forward artificial neural network was employed. This model predicts the kinematic viscosity with a mean square error (MSE) of 0.281 and the coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.983. The results show that the kinematic viscosity of binary mixture of PEG in water could be successfully predicted using an artificial neural network model.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, kinematic viscosity, poly ethylene glycol (PEG)

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Authors: R. Xu, X. Zhao, X. Li, C. Kwan, C.-I Chang

Abstract:

An image texture analysis and target recognition approach of using an improved image texture feature coding method (TFCM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) for target detection is presented. With our proposed target detection framework, targets of interest can be detected accurately. Cascade-Sliding-Window technique was also developed for automated target localization. Application to mammogram showed that over 88% of normal mammograms and 80% of abnormal mammograms can be correctly identified. The approach was also successfully applied to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) images for target detection.

Keywords: Image texture analysis, feature extraction, target detection, pattern classification.

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Authors: S. Kherchaoui, A. Houacine

Abstract:

This paper presents a facial expression recognition system. It performs identification and classification of the seven basic expressions; happy, surprise, fear, disgust, sadness, anger, and neutral states. It consists of three main parts. The first one is the detection of a face and the corresponding facial features to extract the most expressive portion of the face, followed by a normalization of the region of interest. Then calculus of curvelet coefficients is performed with dimensionality reduction through principal component analysis. The resulting coefficients are combined with two ratios; mouth ratio and face edge ratio to constitute the whole feature vector. The third step is the classification of the emotional state using the SVM method in the feature space.

Keywords: Facial expression identification, curvelet coefficients, support vector machine (SVM).

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Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan

Abstract:

The Com-Poisson (CMP) model is one of the most popular discrete generalized linear models (GLMS) that handles both equi-, over- and under-dispersed data. In longitudinal context, an integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process that incorporates covariate specification has been developed to model longitudinal CMP counts. However, the joint likelihood CMP function is difficult to specify and thus restricts the likelihood-based estimating methodology. The joint generalized quasi-likelihood approach (GQL-I) was instead considered but is rather computationally intensive and may not even estimate the regression effects due to a complex and frequently ill-conditioned covariance structure. This paper proposes a new GQL approach for estimating the regression parameters (GQL-III) that is based on a single score vector representation. The performance of GQL-III is compared with GQL-I and separate marginal GQLs (GQL-II) through some simulation experiments and is proved to yield equally efficient estimates as GQL-I and is far more computationally stable.

Keywords: Longitudinal, Com-Poisson, Ill-conditioned, INAR(1), GLMS, GQL.

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Authors: Wei Lei, Hui Chen, Lin Lu

Abstract:

Microscopic emission and fuel consumption models have been widely recognized as an effective method to quantify real traffic emission and energy consumption when they are applied with microscopic traffic simulation models. This paper presents a framework for developing the Microscopic Emission (HC, CO, NOx, and CO2) and Fuel consumption (MEF) models for light-duty vehicles. The variable of composite acceleration is introduced into the MEF model with the purpose of capturing the effects of historical accelerations interacting with current speed on emission and fuel consumption. The MEF model is calibrated by multivariate least-squares method for two types of light-duty vehicle using on-board data collected in Beijing, China by a Portable Emission Measurement System (PEMS). The instantaneous validation results shows the MEF model performs better with lower Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) compared to other two models. Moreover, the aggregate validation results tells the MEF model produces reasonable estimations compared to actual measurements with prediction errors within 12%, 10%, 19%, and 9% for HC, CO, NOx emissions and fuel consumption, respectively.

Keywords: Emission, Fuel consumption, Light-duty vehicle, Microscopic, Modeling.

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Authors: Sanghyeok Oh, Yunli Lee, Kwangjin Hong, Kirak Kim, Keechul Jung

Abstract:

This paper proposes view-point insensitive human pose recognition system using neural network. Recognition system consists of silhouette image capturing module, data driven database, and neural network. The advantages of our system are first, it is possible to capture multiple view-point silhouette images of 3D human model automatically. This automatic capture module is helpful to reduce time consuming task of database construction. Second, we develop huge feature database to offer view-point insensitivity at pose recognition. Third, we use neural network to recognize human pose from multiple-view because every pose from each model have similar feature patterns, even though each model has different appearance and view-point. To construct database, we need to create 3D human model using 3D manipulate tools. Contour shape is used to convert silhouette image to feature vector of 12 degree. This extraction task is processed semi-automatically, which benefits in that capturing images and converting to silhouette images from the real capturing environment is needless. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach with experiments on virtual environment.

Keywords: Computer vision, neural network, pose recognition, view-point insensitive.

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Authors: Mohammad Javadi

Abstract:

Serial hierarchical support vector machine (SHSVM) is proposed to discriminate three brain tissues which are white matter (WM), gray matter (GM), and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). SHSVM has novel classification approach by repeating the hierarchical classification on data set iteratively. It used Radial Basis Function (rbf) Kernel with different tuning to obtain accurate results. Also as the second approach, segmentation performed with DAGSVM method. In this article eight univariate features from the raw DTI data are extracted and all the possible 2D feature sets are examined within the segmentation process. SHSVM succeed to obtain DSI values higher than 0.95 accuracy for all the three tissues, which are higher than DAGSVM results.

Keywords: Brain segmentation, DTI, hierarchical, SVM.

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

Abstract:

Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

Keywords: Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement, Kriging, probability-based damage detection, probability of damage existence, surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification.

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Authors: R. N. Patel

Abstract:

This paper deals with the tuning of parameters for Automatic Generation Control (AGC). A two area interconnected hydrothermal system with PI controller is considered. Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms have been applied to optimize the controller parameters. Two objective functions namely Integral Square Error (ISE) and Integral of Time-multiplied Absolute value of the Error (ITAE) are considered for optimization. The effectiveness of an objective function is considered based on the variation in tie line power and change in frequency in both the areas. MATLAB/SIMULINK was used as a simulation tool. Simulation results reveal that ITAE is a better objective function than ISE. Performances of optimization algorithms are also compared and it was found that genetic algorithm gives better results than particle swarm optimization algorithm for the problems of AGC.

Keywords: Area control error, Artificial intelligence, Automatic generation control, Genetic Algorithms and modeling, ISE, ITAE, Particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: M. A. Beisenbi, N. M. Kissikova, S. E. Beisembina, S. T. Suleimenova, S. A. Kaliyeva

Abstract:

The paper proposes a method for constructing a self-organizing control system for unstable and deterministic chaotic processes in the class of catastrophe “hyperbolic umbilic” for objects with m-inputs and n-outputs. The self-organizing control system is investigated by the universal gradient-velocity method of Lyapunov vector-functions. The conditions for self-organization of the control system in the class of catastrophes “hyperbolic umbilic” are shown in the form of a system of algebraic inequalities that characterize the aperiodic robust stability in the stationary states of the system.

Keywords: Gradient-velocity method of Lyapunov vector-functions, hyperbolic umbilic, self-organizing control system, stability.

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Authors: Azmi Ibrahim, Nor Azan Mat Zin, Noraidah Sahari Ashaari

Abstract:

Dengue fever is prevalent in Malaysia with numerous cases including mortality recorded over the years. Public education on the prevention of the desease through various means has been carried out besides the enforcement of legal means to eradicate Aedes mosquitoes, the dengue vector breeding ground. Hence, other means need to be explored, such as predicting the seasonal peak period of the dengue outbreak and identifying related climate factors contributing to the increase in the number of mosquitoes. Simulation model can be employed for this purpose. In this study, we created a simulation of system dynamic to predict the spread of dengue outbreak in Hulu Langat, Selangor Malaysia. The prototype was developed using STELLA 9.1.2 software. The main data input are rainfall, temperature and denggue cases. Data analysis from the graph showed that denggue cases can be predicted accurately using these two main variables- rainfall and temperature. However, the model will be further tested over a longer time period to ensure its accuracy, reliability and efficiency as a prediction tool for dengue outbreak.

Keywords: dengue fever, prediction, system dynamic, simulation

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