A Hybrid Machine Learning System for Stock Market Forecasting
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 33122
A Hybrid Machine Learning System for Stock Market Forecasting

Authors: Rohit Choudhry, Kumkum Garg

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a hybrid machine learning system based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for stock market prediction. A variety of indicators from the technical analysis field of study are used as input features. We also make use of the correlation between stock prices of different companies to forecast the price of a stock, making use of technical indicators of highly correlated stocks, not only the stock to be predicted. The genetic algorithm is used to select the set of most informative input features from among all the technical indicators. The results show that the hybrid GA-SVM system outperforms the stand alone SVM system.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines, Stock Market Forecasting.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1071852

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 9326

References:


[1] Chen, A.S., Leung, M.T., and Daouk, H. Application of Neural Networks to an Emerging Financial Market: Forecasting and Trading the Taiwan Stock Index. Computers and Operations Research 30, 2003, 901- 923.
[2] W. Kreesuradej, D. Wunsch, and M. Lane, Time-delay neural network for small time series data sets, in World Cong. Neural Networks, San Diego, CA, June 1994.
[3] H. Tan, D. Prokhorov, and D. Wunsch, Probabilistic and time-delay neural-network techniques for conservative short-term stock trend prediction, in Proc. World Congr. Neural Networks, Washington, D.C., July 1995.
[4] E. Saad, D. Prokhorov, and D. Wunsch, Advanced neural-network training methods for low false alarm stock trend prediction, in Proc. IEEE Int. Conf. Neural Networks, Washington, D.C., June 1996.
[5] R. K. Wolfe, Turning point identification and Bayesian forecasting of a volatile time series, Computers and Industrial Engineering, 1988, pp 378-386.
[6] M. A. Kanoudan, Genetic programming prediction of stock prices. Computational Economics, 16, 2000, pp 207-236.
[7] K. J. Kim. Genetic algorithms approach to feature discretization in artificial neural networks for the prediction of stock price index. Expert Systems with Applications, 19(2), 2000, pp 125-132.
[8] S. Schulenburg and P. Ross, Explorations in LCS models of stock trading, Advances in Learning Classifier Systems, 2001, pages 151-180.
[9] O. Castillo and P. Melin, Simulation and forecasting complex financial time series using neural networks and fuzzy logic, Proceedings of IEEE Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 2001, pages 2664-2669.
[10] H Kim and K Shin, A hybrid approach based on neural networks and genetic algorithms for detecting temporal patterns in stock markets, Applied Soft Computing, Volume 7, Issue 2, March 2007, Pages 569- 576.
[11] Tsaih, R., Hsu, Y. and Lai, C.C., Forecasting S&P 500 stock index futures with a hybrid AI system. Decision Support Systems 23 2, 1998, pp. 161-174.
[12] Kohara, K., Ishikawa, T., Fukuhara, Y. and Nakamura, Y., Stock price prediction using prior knowledge and neural networks. International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management 6 1, 1997, pp. 11-22.
[13] L.J. Cao and F.E.H. Tay, Financial forecasting using support vector machines, Neural Computing Applications 10, 2001, pp. 184-192.
[14] F.E.H. Tay and L.J. Cao, Application of support vector machines in financial time series forecasting. Omega 29, 2001, pp. 309-317.
[15] F.E.H. Tay and L.J. Cao, Improved financial time series forecasting by combining support vector machines with self-organizing feature map. Intelligent Data Analysis 5, 2001, pp. 339-354.
[16] K Kim, Financial time series forecasting using Support Vector Machines, Neurocomputing 55, May 2003, Pages 307 - 319.
[17] Wun-Hua Chen and Jen-Ying Shih, Comparison of support-vector machines and back propagation neural networks in forecasting the six major Asian stock markets, Int. J. Electronic Finance, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2006.
[18] V.N. Vapnik, An overview of statistical learning theory. IEEE Transactions of Neural Networks 10, 1999, pp. 988-999.
[19] H. J. Kim, Y. K. Lee, B. N. Kahng, and I. M. Kim, Weighted scale-free network in financial correlation, Journal of the Physical Society of Japan, 71(9), 2002, pp 2133-2136.
[20] Y. K. Kwon, S. S. Choi, B. R. Moon, Stock prediction based on financial correlation, GECCO, 2005, pp 2061-2066.
[21] P. J. Kaufman, Trading Systems and Methods, John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
[22] http://svmlight.joachims.org/
[23] http://in.finance.yahoo.com/