Search results for: integrated land use and transport models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4224

Search results for: integrated land use and transport models

3594 Exergetic and Life Cycle Assessment Analyses of Integrated Biowaste Gasification-Combustion System: A Study Case

Authors: Anabel Fernandez, Leandro Rodriguez-Ortiz, Rosa Rodríguez

Abstract:

Due to the negative impact of fossil fuels, renewable energies are promising sources to limit global temperature rise and damage to the environment. Also, the development of technology is focused on obtaining energetic products from renewable sources. In this study, a thermodynamic model including exergy balance and a subsequent Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) were carried out for four subsystems of the integrated gasification-combustion of pinewood. Results of exergy analysis and LCA showed the process feasibility in terms of exergy efficiency and global energy efficiency of the life cycle (GEELC). Moreover, the energy return on investment (EROI) index was calculated. The global exergy efficiency resulted in 67%. For pretreatment, reaction, cleaning, and electric generation subsystems, the results were 85%, 59%, 87%, and 29%, respectively. Results of LCA indicated that the emissions from the electric generation caused the most damage to the atmosphere, water, and soil. GEELC resulted in 31.09% for the global process. This result suggested the environmental feasibility of an integrated gasification-combustion system. EROI resulted in 3.15, which determines the sustainability of the process.

Keywords: Exergy analysis, Life Cycle Assessment, LCA, renewability, sustainability.

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3593 Aspects Concerning Flame Propagation of Various Fuels in Combustion Chamber of Four Valve Engines

Authors: Zoran Jovanovic, Zoran Masonicic, S. Dragutinovic, Z. Sakota

Abstract:

In this paper, results concerning flame propagation of various fuels in a particular combustion chamber with four tilted valves were elucidated. Flame propagation was represented by the evolution of spatial distribution of temperature in various cut-planes within combustion chamber while the flame front location was determined by dint of zones with maximum temperature gradient. The results presented are only a small part of broader on-going scrutinizing activity in the field of multidimensional modeling of reactive flows in combustion chambers with complicated geometries encompassing various models of turbulence, different fuels and combustion models. In the case of turbulence two different models were applied i.e. standard k-ε model of turbulence and k-ξ-f model of turbulence. In this paper flame propagation results were analyzed and presented for two different hydrocarbon fuels, such as CH4 and C8H18. In the case of combustion all differences ensuing from different turbulence models, obvious for non-reactive flows are annihilated entirely. Namely the interplay between fluid flow pattern and flame propagation is invariant as regards turbulence models and fuels applied. Namely the interplay between fluid flow pattern and flame propagation is entirely invariant as regards fuel variation indicating that the flame propagation through unburned mixture of CH4 and C8H18 fuels is not chemically controlled.

Keywords: Automotive flows, flame propagation, combustion modelling.

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3592 Reverse Logistics in Clothing Recycling: A Case Study in Chengdu

Authors: Guo Yan

Abstract:

Clothing recycling bin is a traditional way to collect textile waste in many areas. In the clothing recycling business, the transportation cost normally takes over 50% of total costs. This case gives a good way to reduce transportation cost by reverse logistics system. In this reverse logistics system, there are offline strategic alliance partners, such as transport firms, convenience stores, laundries, and post office which are integrated onto the mobile APP. Offline strategic alliance partners provide the service of textile waste collection, and transportation by their vacant vehicles return journey from convenience stores, laundries and post offices to sorting centers. The results of the case study provide the strategic alliance with a valuable and light - asset business model by using the logistics of offline memberships. The company in this case just focuses on textile waste sorting, reuse, recycling etc. The research method of this paper is a case study of a clothing recycling company in Chengdu by field research and interview; the analysis is based on the theory of the reverse logistics system.

Keywords: Closed-loop recycles system, clothing recycling, end-of-life clothing, sharing economy, strategic alliance, reverse logistics.

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3591 Climate Impact-Minimizing Road Infrastructure Layout for Growing Cities

Authors: Stanislovas Buteliauskas, Aušrius Juozapavičius

Abstract:

City road transport contributes significantly to climate change, and the ongoing world urbanization is only increasing the problem. The paper describes a city planning concept minimizing the number of vehicles on the roads while increasing overall mobility. This becomes possible by utilizing a recently invented two-level road junction with a unique property of serving both as an intersection of uninterrupted traffic and an easily accessible transport hub capable of accumulating private vehicles, and therefore becoming an especially effective park-and-ride solution, and a logistics or business center. Optimized layouts of city road infrastructure, living and work areas, and major roads are presented. The layouts are suitable both for the development of new cities as well as for the expansion of existing ones. Costs of the infrastructure and a positive impact on climate are evaluated in comparison to current city growth patterns.

Keywords: Congestion, city infrastructure, park-and-ride, road junctions.

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3590 The Long Run Relationship between Exports and Imports in South Africa: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

Authors: Sagaren Pillay

Abstract:

This study empirically examines the long run equilibrium relationship between South Africa’s exports and imports using quarterly data from 1985 to 2012. The theoretical framework used for the study is based on Johansen’s Maximum Likelihood cointegration technique which tests for both the existence and number of cointegration vectors that exists. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant cointegrating relationship is found to exist between exports and imports. The study models this unique linear and lagged relationship using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The findings of the study confirm the existence of a long run equilibrium relationship between exports and imports.

Keywords: Cointegration lagged, linear, maximum likelihood, vector error correction model.

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3589 Landscape Visual Classification Using Land use and Contour Data for Tourism and Planning Decision Making in Cameron Highlands District

Authors: Hosni, N., Shinozaki, M.

Abstract:

Cameron Highlands is known for upland tourism area with vast natural wealth, mountainous landscape endowed with rich diverse species as well as people traditions and cultures. With these various resources, CH possesses an interesting visual and panorama that can be offered to the tourist. However this benefit may not be utilized without obtaining the understanding of existing landscape structure and visual. Given a limited data, this paper attempts to classify landscape visual of Cameron Highlands using land use and contour data. Visual points of view were determined from the given tourist attraction points in the CH Local Plan 2003-2015. The result shows landscape visual and structure categories offered in the study area. The result can be used for further analysis to determine the best alternative tourist trails for tourism planning and decision making using readily available data.

Keywords: Visibility, landscape visual, urban planning, GIS

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3588 Analysis of a Singular Perturbed Synchronous Generator with a Bond Graph Approach

Authors: Gilberto Gonzalez-A, Noe Barrera-G

Abstract:

An analysis of a synchronous generator in a bond graph approach is proposed. This bond graph allows to determine the simplified models of the system by using singular perturbations. Firstly, the nonlinear bond graph of the generator is linearized. Then, the slow and fast state equations by applying singular perturbations are obtained. Also, a bond graph to get the quasi-steady state of the slow dynamic is proposed. In order to verify the effectiveness of the singularly perturbed models, simulation results of the complete system and reduced models are shown.

Keywords: Bond graph modelling, synchronous generator, singular perturbations

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3587 Development of a Clustered Network based on Unique Hop ID

Authors: Hemanth Kumar, A. R., Sudhakar G, Satyanarayana B. S.

Abstract:

In this paper, Land Marks for Unique Addressing( LMUA) algorithm is develped to generate unique ID for each and every node which leads to the formation of overlapping/Non overlapping clusters based on unique ID. To overcome the draw back of the developed LMUA algorithm, the concept of clustering is introduced. Based on the clustering concept a Land Marks for Unique Addressing and Clustering(LMUAC) Algorithm is developed to construct strictly non-overlapping clusters and classify those nodes in to Cluster Heads, Member Nodes, Gate way nodes and generating the Hierarchical code for the cluster heads to operate in the level one hierarchy for wireless communication switching. The expansion of the existing network can be performed or not without modifying the cost of adding the clusterhead is shown. The developed algorithm shows one way of efficiently constructing the

Keywords: Cluster Dimension, Cluster Basis, Metric Dimension, Metric Basis.

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3586 Artificial Intelligence Model to Predict Surface Roughness of Ti-15-3 Alloy in EDM Process

Authors: Md. Ashikur Rahman Khan, M. M. Rahman, K. Kadirgama, M.A. Maleque, Rosli A. Bakar

Abstract:

Conventionally the selection of parameters depends intensely on the operator-s experience or conservative technological data provided by the EDM equipment manufacturers that assign inconsistent machining performance. The parameter settings given by the manufacturers are only relevant with common steel grades. A single parameter change influences the process in a complex way. Hence, the present research proposes artificial neural network (ANN) models for the prediction of surface roughness on first commenced Ti-15-3 alloy in electrical discharge machining (EDM) process. The proposed models use peak current, pulse on time, pulse off time and servo voltage as input parameters. Multilayer perceptron (MLP) with three hidden layer feedforward networks are applied. An assessment is carried out with the models of distinct hidden layer. Training of the models is performed with data from an extensive series of experiments utilizing copper electrode as positive polarity. The predictions based on the above developed models have been verified with another set of experiments and are found to be in good agreement with the experimental results. Beside this they can be exercised as precious tools for the process planning for EDM.

Keywords: Ti-15l-3, surface roughness, copper, positive polarity, multi-layered perceptron.

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3585 Optimization of PEM Fuel Cell Biphasic Model

Authors: Boubekeur Dokkar, Nasreddine Chennouf, Noureddine Settou, Belkhir Negrou, Abdesslam Benmhidi

Abstract:

The optimal operation of proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) requires good water management which is presented under two forms vapor and liquid. Moreover, fuel cells have to reach higher output require integration of some accessories which need electrical power. In order to analyze fuel cells operation and different species transport phenomena a biphasic mathematical model is presented by governing equations set. The numerical solution of these conservation equations is calculated by Matlab program. A multi-criteria optimization with weighting between two opposite objectives is used to determine the compromise solutions between maximum output and minimal stack size. The obtained results are in good agreement with available literature data.

Keywords: Biphasic model, PEM fuel cell, optimization, simulation, specie transport.

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3584 Service Architecture for 3rd Party Operator's Participation

Authors: F. Sarabchi, A. H. Darvishan, H. Yeganeh, H. Ahmadian

Abstract:

Next generation networks with the idea of convergence of service and control layer in existing networks (fixed, mobile and data) and with the intention of providing services in an integrated network, has opened new horizon for telecom operators. On the other hand, economic problems have caused operators to look for new source of income including consider new services, subscription of more users and their promotion in using morenetwork resources and easy participation of service providers or 3rd party operators in utilizing networks. With this requirement, an architecture based on next generation objectives for service layer is necessary. In this paper, a new architecture based on IMS model explains participation of 3rd party operators in creation and implementation of services on an integrated telecom network.

Keywords: Service model, IMS, API, Scripting language, JAIN, Parlay.

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3583 Currency Exchange Rate Forecasts Using Quantile Regression

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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3582 Effect of Organic-waste Compost Addition on Leaching of Mineral Nitrogen from Arable Land and Plant Production

Authors: Jakub Elbl, Lukas Plošek, Antonín Kintl, Jaroslav Záhora, Jitka Přichystalová, Jaroslav Hynšt

Abstract:

Application of compost in agriculture is very desirable worldwide. In the Czech Republic, compost is the most often used to improve soil structure and increase the content of soil organic matter, but the effects of compost addition on the fate of mineral nitrogen are only scarcely described. This paper deals with possibility of using combined application of compost, mineral and organic fertilizers to reduce the leaching of mineral nitrogen from arable land. To demonstrate the effect of compost addition on leaching of mineral nitrogen, we performed the pot experiment. As a model crop, Lactuca sativa L. was used and cultivated for 35 days in climate chamber in thoroughly homogenized arable soil. Ten variants of the experiment were prepared; two control variants (pure arable soil and arable soil with added compost), four variants with different doses of mineral and organic fertilizers and four variants of the same doses of mineral and organic fertilizers with the addition of compos. The highest decrease of mineral nitrogen leaching was observed by the simultaneous applications of soluble humic substances and compost to soil samples, about 417% in comparison with the control variant. Application of these organic compounds also supported microbial activity and nitrogen immobilization documented by the highest soil respiration and by the highest value of the index of nitrogen availability. The production of plant biomass after this application was not the highest due to microbial competition for the nutrients in soil, but was 24% higher in comparison with the control variant. To support these promising results the experiment should be repeated in field conditions.

Keywords: Nitrogen, Compost, Salad, Arable land.

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3581 Experimental and Numerical Study of the Effect of Lateral Wind on the Feeder Airship

Authors: A. Suñol, D. Vucinic, S.Vanlanduit, T. Markova, A. Aksenov, I. Moskalyov

Abstract:

Feeder is one of the airships of the Multibody Advanced Airship for Transport (MAAT) system, under development within the EU FP7 project. MAAT is based on a modular concept composed of two different parts that have the possibility to join; respectively they are the so-called Cruiser and Feeder, designed on the lighter than air principle. Feeder, also named ATEN (Airship Transport Elevator Network), is the smaller one which joins the bigger one, Cruiser, also named PTAH (Photovoltaic modular Transport Airship for High altitude),envisaged to happen at 15km altitude. During the MAAT design phase, the aerodynamic studies of the both airships and their interactions are analyzed. The objective of these studies is to understand the aerodynamic behavior of all the preselected configurations, as an important element in the overall MAAT system design. The most of these configurations are only simulated by CFD, while the most feasible one is experimentally analyzed in order to validate and thrust the CFD predictions. This paper presents the numerical and experimental investigation of the Feeder “conical like" shape configuration. The experiments are focused on the aerodynamic force coefficients and the pressure distribution over the Feeder outer surface, while the numerical simulation cover also the analysis of the velocity and pressure distribution. Finally, the wind tunnel experiment is compared with its CFD model in order to validate such specific simulations with respective experiments and to better understand the difference between the wind tunnel and in-flight circumstances.

Keywords: MAAT project Feeder, CFD simulations, wind tunnel experiments, lateral wind influence.

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3580 Learning Monte Carlo Data for Circuit Path Length

Authors: Namal A. Senanayake, A. Beg, Withana C. Prasad

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the patterns of the Monte Carlo data for a large number of variables and minterms, in order to characterize the circuit path length behavior. We propose models that are determined by training process of shortest path length derived from a wide range of binary decision diagram (BDD) simulations. The creation of the model was done use of feed forward neural network (NN) modeling methodology. Experimental results for ISCAS benchmark circuits show an RMS error of 0.102 for the shortest path length complexity estimation predicted by the NN model (NNM). Use of such a model can help reduce the time complexity of very large scale integrated (VLSI) circuitries and related computer-aided design (CAD) tools that use BDDs.

Keywords: Monte Carlo data, Binary decision diagrams, Neural network modeling, Shortest path length estimation.

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3579 Using the Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict the Assembly Yield

Authors: C. Chahin, M. C. Hsu, Y. H. Lin, C. Y. Huang

Abstract:

Electronics Products that achieve high levels of integrated communications, computing and entertainment, multimedia features in small, stylish and robust new form factors are winning in the market place. Due to the high costs that an industry may undergo and how a high yield is directly proportional to high profits, IC (Integrated Circuit) manufacturers struggle to maximize yield, but today-s customers demand miniaturization, low costs, high performance and excellent reliability making the yield maximization a never ending research of an enhanced assembly process. With factors such as minimum tolerances, tighter parameter variations a systematic approach is needed in order to predict the assembly process. In order to evaluate the quality of upcoming circuits, yield models are used which not only predict manufacturing costs but also provide vital information in order to ease the process of correction when the yields fall below expectations. For an IC manufacturer to obtain higher assembly yields all factors such as boards, placement, components, the material from which the components are made of and processes must be taken into consideration. Effective placement yield depends heavily on machine accuracy and the vision of the system which needs the ability to recognize the features on the board and component to place the device accurately on the pads and bumps of the PCB. There are currently two methods for accurate positioning, using the edge of the package and using solder ball locations also called footprints. The only assumption that a yield model makes is that all boards and devices are completely functional. This paper will focus on the Monte Carlo method which consists in a class of computational algorithms (information processed algorithms) which depends on repeated random samplings in order to compute the results. This method utilized in order to recreate the simulation of placement and assembly processes within a production line.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, placement yield, PCBcharacterization, electronics assembly

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3578 High-Accuracy Satellite Image Analysis and Rapid DSM Extraction for Urban Environment Evaluations (Tripoli-Libya)

Authors: Abdunaser Abduelmula, Maria Luisa M. Bastos, José A. Gonçalves

Abstract:

Modelling of the earth's surface and evaluation of urban environment, with 3D models, is an important research topic. New stereo capabilities of high resolution optical satellites images, such as the tri-stereo mode of Pleiades, combined with new image matching algorithms, are now available and can be applied in urban area analysis. In addition, photogrammetry software packages gained new, more efficient matching algorithms, such as SGM, as well as improved filters to deal with shadow areas, can achieve more dense and more precise results. This paper describes a comparison between 3D data extracted from tri-stereo and dual stereo satellite images, combined with pixel based matching and Wallis filter. The aim was to improve the accuracy of 3D models especially in urban areas, in order to assess if satellite images are appropriate for a rapid evaluation of urban environments. The results showed that 3D models achieved by Pleiades tri-stereo outperformed, both in terms of accuracy and detail, the result obtained from a Geo-eye pair. The assessment was made with reference digital surface models derived from high resolution aerial photography. This could mean that tri-stereo images can be successfully used for the proposed urban change analyses.

Keywords: 3D Models, Environment, Matching, Pleiades.

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3577 Sensitive Analysis of the ZF Model for ABC Multi Criteria Inventory Classification

Authors: Makram Ben Jeddou

Abstract:

ABC classification is widely used by managers for inventory control. The classical ABC classification is based on Pareto principle and according to the criterion of the annual use value only. Single criterion classification is often insufficient for a closely inventory control. Multi-criteria inventory classification models have been proposed by researchers in order to consider other important criteria. From these models, we will consider a specific model in order to make a sensitive analysis on the composite score calculated for each item. In fact, this score, based on a normalized average between a good and a bad optimized index, can affect the ABC-item classification. We will focus on items differently assigned to classes and then propose a classification compromise.

Keywords: ABC classification, Multi criteria inventory classification models, ZF-model.

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3576 New Moment Rotation Model of Single Web Angle Connections

Authors: Zhengyi Kong, Seung-Eock Kim

Abstract:

Single angle connections, which are bolted to the beam web and the column flange, are studied to investigate their moment-rotation behavior. Elastic–perfectly plastic material behavior is assumed. ABAQUS software is used to analyze the nonlinear behavior of a single angle connection. The identical geometric and material conditions with Lipson’s test are used for verifying finite element models. Since Kishi and Chen’s Power model and Lee and Moon’s Log model are accurate only for a limited range of mechanism, simpler and more accurate hyperbolic function models are proposed.

Keywords: Single-web angle connections, finite element method, moment and rotation, hyperbolic function models.

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3575 Robust Integrated Navigation of a Low Cost System

Authors: Saman M. Siddiqui, Fang Jiancheng

Abstract:

Robust nonlinear integrated navigation of GPS and low cost MEMS is a hot topic of research these days. A robust filter is required to cope up with the problem of unpredictable discontinuities and colored noises associated with low cost sensors. H∞ filter is previously used in Extended Kalman filter and Unscented Kalman filter frame. Unscented Kalman filter has a problem of Cholesky matrix factorization at each step which is a very unstable operation. To avoid this problem in this research H∞ filter is designed in Square root Unscented filter framework and found 50% more robust towards increased level of colored noises.

Keywords: H∞ filter, MEMS, GPS, Nonlinear system, robust system, Square root unscented filter.

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3574 Experimental Studies on Multiphase Flow in Porous Media and Pore Wettability

Authors: Xingxun Li, Xianfeng Fan

Abstract:

Multiphase flow transport in porous medium is very common and significant in science and engineering applications. For example, in CO2 Storage and Enhanced Oil Recovery processes, CO2 has to be delivered to the pore spaces in reservoirs and aquifers. CO2 storage and enhance oil recovery are actually displacement processes, in which oil or water is displaced by CO2. This displacement is controlled by pore size, chemical and physical properties of pore surfaces and fluids, and also pore wettability. In this study, a technique was developed to measure the pressure profile for driving gas/liquid to displace water in pores. Through this pressure profile, the impact of pore size on the multiphase flow transport and displacement can be analyzed. The other rig developed can be used to measure the static and dynamic pore wettability and investigate the effects of pore size, surface tension, viscosity and chemical structure of liquids on pore wettability.

Keywords: Enhanced oil recovery, Multiphase flow, Pore size, Pore wettability

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3573 The Hyperbolic Smoothing Approach for Automatic Calibration of Rainfall-Runoff Models

Authors: Adilson Elias Xavier, Otto Corrêa Rotunno Filho, Paulo Canedo de Magalhães

Abstract:

This paper addresses the issue of automatic parameter estimation in conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) models. Due to threshold structures commonly occurring in CRR models, the associated mathematical optimization problems have the significant characteristic of being strongly non-differentiable. In order to face this enormous task, the resolution method proposed adopts a smoothing strategy using a special C∞ differentiable class function. The final estimation solution is obtained by solving a sequence of differentiable subproblems which gradually approach the original conceptual problem. The use of this technique, called Hyperbolic Smoothing Method (HSM), makes possible the application of the most powerful minimization algorithms, and also allows for the main difficulties presented by the original CRR problem to be overcome. A set of computational experiments is presented for the purpose of illustrating both the reliability and the efficiency of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Rainfall-runoff models, optimization procedure, automatic parameter calibration, hyperbolic smoothing method.

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3572 Selecting an Advanced Creep Model or a Sophisticated Time-Integration? A New Approach by Means of Sensitivity Analysis

Authors: Holger Keitel

Abstract:

The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.

Keywords: Concrete creep models, time-integration methods, sensitivity analysis, prediction uncertainty.

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3571 Development of a Cost Effective Two Wheel Tractor Mounted Mobile Maize Sheller for Small Farmers in Bangladesh

Authors: M. Israil Hossain, T. P. Tiwari, Ashrafuzzaman Gulandaz, Nusrat Jahan

Abstract:

Two-wheel tractor (power tiller) is a common tillage tool in Bangladesh agriculture for easy access in fragmented land with affordable price of small farmers. Traditional maize sheller needs to be carried from place to place by hooking with two-wheel tractor (2WT) and set up again for shelling operation which takes longer time for preparation of maize shelling. The mobile maize sheller eliminates the transportation problem and can start shelling operation instantly any place as it is attached together with 2WT. It is counterclockwise rotating cylinder, axial flow type sheller, and grain separated with a frictional force between spike tooth and concave. The maize sheller is attached with nuts and bolts in front of the engine base of 2WT. The operating power of the sheller comes from the fly wheel of the engine of the tractor through ‘V” belt pulley arrangement. The average shelling capacity of the mobile sheller is 2.0 t/hr, broken kernel 2.2%, and shelling efficiency 97%. The average maize shelling cost is Tk. 0.22/kg and traditional custom hire rate is Tk.1.0/kg, respectively (1 US$=Tk.78.0). The service provider of the 2WT can transport the mobile maize sheller long distance in operator’s seating position. The manufacturers started the fabrication of mobile maize sheller. This mobile maize sheller is also compatible for the other countries where 2WT is available for farming operation.

Keywords: Cost effective, mobile maize sheller, maize shelling capacity, small farmers, two-wheel tractor.

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3570 Estimating Affected Croplands and Potential Crop Yield Loss of an Individual Farmer Due to Floods

Authors: Shima Nabinejad, Holger Schüttrumpf

Abstract:

Farmers who are living in flood-prone areas such as coasts are exposed to storm surges increased due to climate change. Crop cultivation is the most important economic activity of farmers, and in the time of flooding, agricultural lands are subject to inundation. Additionally, overflow saline water causes more severe damage outcomes than riverine flooding. Agricultural crops are more vulnerable to salinity than other land uses for which the economic damages may continue for a number of years even after flooding and affect farmers’ decision-making for the following year. Therefore, it is essential to assess what extent the agricultural areas are flooded and how much the associated flood damage to each individual farmer is. To address these questions, we integrated farmers’ decision-making at farm-scale with flood risk management. The integrated model includes identification of hazard scenarios, failure analysis of structural measures, derivation of hydraulic parameters for the inundated areas and analysis of the economic damages experienced by each farmer. The present study has two aims; firstly, it attempts to investigate the flooded cropland and potential crop damages for the whole area. Secondly, it compares them among farmers’ field for three flood scenarios, which differ in breach locations of the flood protection structure. To achieve its goal, the spatial distribution of fields and cultivated crops of farmers were fed into the flood risk model, and a 100-year storm surge hydrograph was selected as the flood event. The study area was Pellworm Island that is located in the German Wadden Sea National Park and surrounded by North Sea. Due to high salt content in seawater of North Sea, crops cultivated in the agricultural areas of Pellworm Island are 100% destroyed by storm surges which were taken into account in developing of depth-damage curve for analysis of consequences. As a result, inundated croplands and economic damages to crops were estimated in the whole Island which was further compared for six selected farmers under three flood scenarios. The results demonstrate the significance and the flexibility of the proposed model in flood risk assessment of flood-prone areas by integrating flood risk management and decision-making.

Keywords: Crop damages, flood risk analysis, individual farmer, inundated cropland, Pellworm Island, storm surges.

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3569 Assessment of Negative Impacts Affecting Public Transportation Modes and Infrastructure in Burgersfort Town towards Building Urban Sustainability

Authors: Ntloana Hlabishi Peter

Abstract:

The availability of public transportation modes and qualitative infrastructure is a burning issue that affects urban sustainability. Public transportation is indispensable in providing adequate transportation means to people at an affordable price, and it promotes public transport reliance. Burgersfort town has a critical condition on the urban public transportation infrastructure which affects the bus and taxi public transport modes and the existing infrastructure. The municipality is regarded as one of the mining towns in Limpopo Province considering the availability of mining activities and proposal on establishment of a Special Economic Zone (SEZ). The study aim is to assess the efficacy of current public transportation infrastructure and to propose relevant recommendations that will unlock the possibility of future supportable public transportation systems. The Key Informant Interview (KII) was used to acquire data on the views from commuters and stakeholders involved. There KII incorporated three relevant questions in relation to services rendered in public transportation. Relevant literature relating to public transportation modes and infrastructure revealed the imperatives of public transportation infrastructure, and relevant legislation was reviewed concerning public transport infrastructure. The finding revealed poor conditions on the public transportation ranks and also inadequate parking space for public transportation modes. The study reveals that 100% of people interviewed were not satisfied with the condition of public transportation infrastructure and 100% are not satisfied with the services offered by public transportation sectors. The findings revealed that the municipality is the main player who can upgrade the existing conditions of public transportation. The study recommended that an intermodal transportation facility must be established to resolve the emerging challenges.

Keywords: Public transportation, modes, infrastructure, urban sustainability.

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3568 Integrated Modeling Approach for Energy Planning and Climate Change Mitigation Assessment in the State of Florida

Authors: Kuntal Thakkar, Chaouki Ghenai, Ahmed Hachicha

Abstract:

An integrated modeling approach was used in this study for energy planning and climate change mitigation assessment. The main objective of this study was to develop various green-house gas (GHG) mitigations scenarios in the energy demand and supply sectors for the state of Florida. The Long range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model was used in this study to examine the energy alternative and GHG emissions reduction scenarios for short and long term (2010-2050). One of the energy analysis and GHG mitigation scenarios was developed by taking into account the available renewable energy resources potential for power generation in the state of Florida. This will help to compare and analyze the GHG reduction measure against “Business As Usual” and ‘State of Florida Policy” scenarios. Two master scenarios: “Electrification” and “Energy efficiency and Lifestyle” were developed through combination of various mitigation scenarios: technological changes and energy efficiency and conservation. The results show a net reduction of the energy demand and GHG emissions by adopting these two energy scenarios compared to the business as usual.

Keywords: Integrated modeling, energy planning, climate change mitigation assessment, greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy, energy efficiency.

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3567 Improving the Analytical Power of Dynamic DEA Models, by the Consideration of the Shape of the Distribution of Inputs/Outputs Data: A Linear Piecewise Decomposition Approach

Authors: Elias K. Maragos, Petros E. Maravelakis

Abstract:

In Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis (DDEA), which is a subfield of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the productivity of Decision Making Units (DMUs) is considered in relation to time. In this case, as it is accepted by the most of the researchers, there are outputs, which are produced by a DMU to be used as inputs in a future time. Those outputs are known as intermediates. The common models, in DDEA, do not take into account the shape of the distribution of those inputs, outputs or intermediates data, assuming that the distribution of the virtual value of them does not deviate from linearity. This weakness causes the limitation of the accuracy of the analytical power of the traditional DDEA models. In this paper, the authors, using the concept of piecewise linear inputs and outputs, propose an extended DDEA model. The proposed model increases the flexibility of the traditional DDEA models and improves the measurement of the dynamic performance of DMUs.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, Dynamic DEA, Piecewise linear inputs, Piecewise linear outputs.

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3566 Development of Prediction Models of Day-Ahead Hourly Building Electricity Consumption and Peak Power Demand Using the Machine Learning Method

Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

Abstract:

To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: Building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market.

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3565 Preliminary Roadway Alignment Design: A Spatial-Data Optimization Approach

Authors: Y. Abdelrazig, R. Moses

Abstract:

Roadway planning and design is a very complex process involving five key phases before a project is completed; planning, project development, final design, right-of-way, and construction. The planning phase for a new roadway transportation project is a very critical phase as it greatly affects all latter phases of the project. A location study is usually performed during the preliminary planning phase in a new roadway project. The objective of the location study is to develop alignment alternatives that are cost efficient considering land acquisition and construction costs. This paper describes a methodology to develop optimal preliminary roadway alignments utilizing spatial-data. Four optimization criteria are taken into consideration; roadway length, land cost, land slope, and environmental impacts. The basic concept of the methodology is to convert the proposed project area into a grid, which represents the search space for an optimal alignment. The aforementioned optimization criteria are represented in each of the grid’s cells. A spatial-data optimization technique is utilized to find the optimal alignment in the search space based on the four optimization criteria. Two case studies for new roadway projects in Duval County in the State of Florida are presented to illustrate the methodology. The optimization output alignments are compared to the proposed Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) alignments. The comparison is based on right-of-way costs for the alignments. For both case studies, the right-of-way costs for the developed optimal alignments were found to be significantly lower than the FDOT alignments.

Keywords: Optimization, planning, roadway alignment, FDOT.

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