Search results for: demand response

Authors: Saurabh Chanana, Monika Arora

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Demand response is getting increased attention these days due to the increase in electricity demand and introduction of renewable resources in the existing power grid. Traditionally demand response programs involve large industrial consumers but with technological advancement, demand response is being implemented for small residential and commercial consumers also. In this paper, demand response program aims to reduce the peak demand as well as overall energy consumption of the residential customers. Air conditioners are the major reason of peak load in residential sector in summer, so a dynamic model of air conditioning load with thermostat action has been considered for applying demand response programs. A programmable communicating thermostat (PCT) is a device that uses real time pricing (RTP) signals to control the thermostat setting. A new model incorporating PCT in air conditioning load has been proposed in this paper. Results show that introduction of PCT in air conditioner is useful in reducing the electricity payments of customers as well as reducing the peak demand. 

Keywords: Demand response, Home energy management Programmable communicating thermostat, Thermostatically controlled appliances.

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Authors: Megumi Nishida, Naoya Motegi, Takurou Kikuchi, Tomoko Tokumura

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In recent years, the power system has been changed and a flexible power pricing system such as demand response has been sought in Japan. The demand response system works simply in the household sector and the owner as the decision-maker, can benefit from power saving. On the other hand, the execution of demand response in the office building is more complex than in the household because various people such as owners, building administrators and occupants are involved in the decision-making process. While the owners benefit from demand saving, the occupants are exposed to restricted benefits of a demand-saved environment. One of the reasons is that building systems are usually under centralized management and each occupant cannot choose freely whether to participate in demand response or not. In addition, it is unclear whether incentives give occupants the motivation to participate. However, the recent development of IT and building systems enables the personalized control of the office environment where each occupant can control the lighting level or temperature individually. Therefore, it can be possible to have a system which each occupant can make a decision of whether or not to participate in demand response in the office building. This study investigates personal responses to demand response requests, under the condition where each occupant can adjust their brightness individually in their workspace. Once workers participate in the demand response, their desk-lights are automatically turned off. The participation rates in the demand response events are compared among four groups, which are divided by different motivation, the presence, or absence of incentives and the method of participation. The result shows that there are significant differences of participation rates in demand response event between four groups. The method of participation has a large effect on the participation rate. The “Opt-out” groups where the occupants are automatically enrolled in a demand response event if they do not express non-participation have the highest participation rate in the four groups. Incentives also have an effect on the participation rate. This study also reports on the impact of low illumination office environment on the occupants, such as stress or fatigue. The electrocardiogram and the questionnaire are used to investigate the autonomic nervous activity and subjective fatigue symptoms of the occupants. There is no big difference between dim workspace during demand response event and bright workspace in autonomic nervous activity and fatigue.

Keywords: Demand response, illumination, questionnaire, electrocardiograph.

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Authors: M. Naserian, M. Jooshaki, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, M. Hossein Mohammadi Sanjani, A. Oraee

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In recent years, the development of communication infrastructure and smart meters have facilitated the utilization of demand-side resources which can enhance stability and economic efficiency of power systems. Direct load control programs can play an important role in the utilization of demand-side resources in the residential sector. However, investments required for installing control equipment can be a limiting factor in the development of such demand response programs. Thus, selection of consumers with higher potentials is crucial to the success of a direct load control program. Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which due to the heat capacity of buildings feature relatively high flexibility, make up a major part of household consumption. Considering that the consumption of HVAC systems depends highly on the ambient temperature and bearing in mind the high investments required for control systems enabling direct load control demand response programs, in this paper, a solution is presented to uncover consumers with high air conditioner demand among a large number of consumers and to measure the demand response potential of such consumers. This can pave the way for estimating the investments needed for the implementation of direct load control programs for residential HVAC systems and for estimating the demand response potentials in a distribution system. In doing so, we first cluster consumers into several groups based on the correlation coefficients between hourly consumption data and hourly temperature data using K-means algorithm. Then, by applying a recent algorithm to the hourly consumption and temperature data, consumers with high air conditioner consumption are identified. Finally, demand response potential of such consumers is estimated based on the equivalent desired temperature setpoint changes.

Keywords: Data-driven analysis, demand response, direct load control, HVAC system.

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Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

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To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: Building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market.

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Authors: Ali Nadi, Ali Edrissi

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Relief demand and transportation links availability is the essential information that is needed for every natural disaster operation. This information is not in hand once a disaster strikes. Relief demand and network condition has been evaluated based on prediction method in related works. Nevertheless, prediction seems to be over or under estimated due to uncertainties and may lead to a failure operation. Therefore, in this paper a stochastic programming model is proposed to evaluate real-time relief demand and network condition at the onset of a natural disaster. To address the time sensitivity of the emergency response, the proposed model uses reinforcement learning for optimization of the total relief assessment time. The proposed model is tested on a real size network problem. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model performs well in the case of collecting real-time information.

Keywords: Disaster management, real-time demand, reinforcement learning, relief demand.

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Authors: Simeon Karafolas, Maciej Woźniak

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Guarantee schemes have been introduced in the economic and financial system as response to difficulties of SMEs for the access to the banking credit. Guarantee companies first appeared at the 19e century. Last wave of the development of those schemes appeared at the decade of 1990’s in particular to the new countries members of the EU. Guarantee schemes are presented as public owned guarantee companies, private ones mainly through a mutual form, but also under a mixed form. The paper based on guarantee schemes of five countries tries to investigate the differences that can exist within different guarantee companies. This investigation is based on some indicators that are time of response to the demand of guarantee, threshold of guarantee, acceptance of applications for guarantee, jobs created or saved and bureaucratic issues. It appears that guarantee companies have not the same reaction to the demand of SMEs and some of them are much more active.

Keywords: DIFASS, Guarantees, Loans.

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Authors: Astiaj Khoramshahi, Hossein Ahmadi Danesh Ashtiani, Ahmad Khoshgard, Hamidreza Damghani, Leila Damghani

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Solar energy systems using various storages are required to be evaluated based on energy requirements and applications. Also, modeling and analysis of storage systems are necessary to increase the effectiveness of combinations of these systems. In this paper, analysis based on the MATLAB software has been analyzed to evaluate the response of the hybrid energy system considering various technologies of renewable energy and energy storage. In the present study, three different simulation scenarios are presented. Simulation output results using software for the first scenario show that the battery is effective in smoothing the overall power demand to the consumer studied during a day, but temporary loads on the grid with high frequencies, effectively cannot be canceled due to the limited response speed of battery control. Simulation outputs for the second scenario using the energy storage system show that sudden changes in demand power are paved by super saving. The majority of these sudden changes in power demand are caused by sewing consumers and receiving variable solar power (due to clouds passing through the solar array). Simulation outputs for the third scenario show the effects of the hybrid system for the same consumer and the output of the solar array, leading to the smallest amount of power demand fed into the grid, as well as demand at peak times. According to the "battery only" scenario, the displacement technique of the peak load has been significantly reduced.

Keywords: Storage system, super storage, standalone, microgrid.

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Authors: Vojko Kilar, Boris Azinović, David Koren

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Recently, an increasing trend of passive and low-energy buildings transferring form non earthquake-prone to earthquake-prone regions has thrown out the question about the seismic safety of such buildings. The paper describes the most commonly used thermal insulating materials and the special details, which could be critical from the point of view of earthquake resistance. The most critical appeared to be the cases of buildings founded on the RC foundation slab lying on a thermal insulation (TI) layer made of extruded polystyrene (XPS). It was pointed out that in such cases the seismic response of such buildings might differ to response of their fixed based counterparts. The main parameters that need special designers’ attention are: the building’s lateral top displacement, the ductility demand of the superstructure, the foundation friction coefficient demand, the maximum compressive stress in the TI layer and the percentage of the uplifted foundation. The analyses have shown that the potentially negative influences of inserting the TI under the foundation slab could be expected only for slender high-rise buildings subjected to severe earthquakes. Oppositely it was demonstrated for the foundation friction coefficient demand which could exceed the capacity value yet in the case of low-rise buildings subjected to moderate earthquakes. Some suggestions to prevent the horizontal shifts are also given.

Keywords: Earthquake Response, Extruded Polystyrene (XPS), Low-Energy Buildings, Foundations on Thermal Insulation Layer.

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Authors: Abubakar Uba Ibrahim, Ibrahim Haruna Shanono

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Smart metering and demand response are gaining ground in industrial and residential applications. Smart Appliances have been given concern towards achieving Smart home. The success of Smart grid development relies on the successful implementation of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in power sector. Smart Appliances have been the technology under development and many new contributions to its realization have been reported in the last few years. The role of ICT here is to capture data in real time, thereby allowing bi-directional flow of information/data between producing and utilization point; that lead a way for the attainment of Smart appliances where home appliances can communicate between themselves and provide a self-control (switch on and off) using the signal (information) obtained from the grid. This paper depicts the background on ICT for smart appliances paying a particular attention to the current technology and identifying the future ICT trends for load monitoring through which smart appliances can be achieved to facilitate an efficient smart home system which promote demand response program. This paper grouped and reviewed the recent contributions, in order to establish the current state of the art and trends of the technology, so that the reader can be provided with a comprehensive and insightful review of where ICT for smart appliances stands and is heading to. The paper also presents a brief overview of communication types, and then narrowed the discussion to the load monitoring (Non-intrusive Appliances Load Monitoring ‘NALM’). Finally, some future trends and challenges in the further development of the ICT framework are discussed to motivate future contributions that address open problems and explore new possibilities.

Keywords: Communication technology between appliances, demand response, load monitoring, smart appliances and smart grid.

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Authors: Md. Ashraful Islam, Rahat Sharif

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Chittagong is the Commercial Capital of Bangladesh. The study area at GEC in Chittagong is one of the most commercial activity centers of Chittagong. This paper first analyzes the parking demand of the commercial centers, based on the parking survey. Further, it analyzes the relationship between the parking demand of the commercial buildings and the public transport accessibility. The conclusion is that the parking demand rate of the shopping centre and supermarkets decreases with the increasing of the public transport accessibility. This paper also provides the parking demand rate under the different levels of the public transport accessibility and the parking demand model with the accessibility. The conclusions are valuable for the researches on the parking demand and the making of the parking index for the commercial buildings.

Keywords: Parking, accumulation, inventory, demand, supply, occupancy.

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Authors: Govind Sharan Dangayach, Himanshu Bhatt

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The paper attempts to overcome the fluctuations occurring in demand of the components in an automotive sector company. Resource and time being the strict constraints, the production is not able to match the pace of the fluctuating demand. So, we introduce some production schedules that help in meeting out the required demand. The merits and demerits of the approaches are also highlighted.

Keywords: Production scheduling, Demand rise, Capacity constrained resource (CCR), Overtime.

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Authors: Hui Hsin Huang

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The downstream manufactures will order their materials from different upstream suppliers to maintain a certain level of the demand. This paper proposes a bivariate model to portray this phenomenon of material demand. We use empirical data to estimate the parameters of model and evaluate the RMSD of model calibration. The results show that the model has better fitness.

Keywords: Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern family of bivariate distributions, multi-source ordering, materials demand quantity, recency, ordering time.

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Authors: Tarek M. Alguhane, Ayman H. Khalil, M. N. Fayed, Ayman M. Ismail

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An existing RC building in Madinah is seismically evaluated with and without infill wall. Four model systems have been considered i.e. model I (no infill), model IIA (strut infill-update from field test), model IIB (strut infill- ASCE/SEI 41) and model IIC (strut infill-Soft storey- ASCE/SEI 41). Three dimensional pushover analyses have been carried out using SAP2000 software incorporating inelastic material behavior for concrete, steel and infill walls. Infill wall has been modeled as equivalent strut according to suggested equation matching field test measurements and to the ASCE/SEI 41 equation. The effect of building modeling on the performance point as well as capacity and demand spectra due to EQ design spectrum function in Madinah area has been investigated. The response modification factor (R) for the 5 story RC building is evaluated from capacity and demand spectra (ATC-40) for the studied models. The results are summarized and discussed.

Keywords: Infill wall, Pushover Analysis, Response Modification Factor, Seismic Assessment.

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Authors: B. Skrabic, N. Tomic-Plazibat

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In this paper real money demand function is analyzed within multivariate time-series framework. Cointegration approach is used (Johansen procedure) assuming interdependence between money demand determinants, which are nonstationary variables. This will help us to understand the behavior of money demand in Croatia, revealing the significant influence between endogenous variables in vector autoregrression system (VAR), i.e. vector error correction model (VECM). Exogeneity of the explanatory variables is tested. Long-run money demand function is estimated indicating slow speed of adjustment of removing the disequilibrium. Empirical results provide the evidence that real industrial production and exchange rate explains the most variations of money demand in the long-run, while interest rate is significant only in short-run.

Keywords: Cointegration, Long-run equilibrium, Money demand function, Vector error correction model.

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

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This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data. 

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, Safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, Supply chain.

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Authors: Dimitra Alexiou

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In an urban area the location allocation of emergency services mobile units, such as ambulances, police patrol cars must be designed so as to achieve a prompt response to demand locations. In this paper the partition of a given urban network into distinct sub-networks is performed such that the vertices in each component are close and simultaneously the sums of the corresponding population in the sub-networks are almost uniform. The objective here is to position appropriately in each sub-network a mobile emergency unit in order to reduce the response time to the demands. A mathematical model in framework of graph theory is developed. In order to clarify the corresponding method a relevant numerical example is presented on a small network.

Keywords: Distances, Emergency Service, Graph Partition, location.

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Authors: Haiyan Wang

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Business interpreting talents are in badly need for local economic development, but currently there are problems of traditional business interpreting training mode in China. In view of the good opportunity for college business interpreters provided by international trading center development in Qingdao China and with the aim of being in line with market demand and enhancing business interpreters' employment competitive advantage, this paper aims to explore how to cultivate interdisciplinary business interpreting talents based on market demand.

Keywords: Interdisciplinary talents, business interpreting, market demand.

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Authors: Huey-Kuo Chen

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Travel demand forecasting including four travel choices, i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and traffic assignment constructs the core of transportation planning. In its current application, travel demand forecasting has associated with three important issues, i.e., interface inconsistencies among four travel choices, inefficiency of commonly used solution algorithms, and undesirable multiple path solutions. In this paper, each of the three issues is extensively elaborated. An ideal unified framework for the combined model consisting of the four travel choices and variable demand functions is also suggested. Then, a few remarks are provided in the end of the paper

Keywords: Travel choices, B algorithm, entropy maximization, dynamic traffic assignment.

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Authors: Chansiri Singhtaun

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This paper proposes a mathematical model and examines the performance of an exact algorithm for a location– transportation problems in humanitarian relief. The model determines the number and location of distribution centers in a relief network, the amount of relief supplies to be stocked at each distribution center and the vehicles to take the supplies to meet the needs of disaster victims under capacity restriction, transportation and budgetary constraints. The computational experiments are conducted on the various sizes of problems that are generated. Branch and bound algorithm is applied for these problems. The results show that this algorithm can solve problem sizes of up to three candidate locations with five demand points and one candidate location with up to twenty demand points without premature termination.

Keywords: Disaster response, facility location, humanitarian relief, transportation.

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Authors: Pinki Sharma, Himanshu Joshi

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Distillery spentwash contains high chemical oxygen demand (COD), biological oxygen demand (BOD), color, total dissolved solids (TDS) and other contaminants even after biological treatment. The effluent can’t be discharged as such in the surface water bodies or land without further treatment. Reverse osmosis (RO) treatment plants have been installed in many of the distilleries at tertiary level in many of the distilleries in India, but are not properly working due to fouling problem which is caused by the presence of high concentration of organic matter and other contaminants in biologically treated spentwash. In order to make the membrane treatment a proven and reliable technology, proper pre-treatment is mandatory. In the present study, ultra-filtration (UF) for pretreatment of RO at tertiary stage has been performed. Operating parameters namely initial pH (pHo: 2–10), trans-membrane pressure (TMP: 4-20 bars) and temperature (T: 15-43°C) were used for conducting experiments with UF system. Experiments were optimized at different operating parameters in terms of COD, color, TDS and TOC removal by using response surface methodology (RSM) with central composite design. The results showed that removal of COD, color and TDS was 62%, 93.5% and 75.5% respectively, with UF, at optimized conditions with increased permeate flux from 17.5 l/m2/h (RO) to 38 l/m2/h (UF-RO). The performance of the RO system was greatly improved both in term of pollutant removal as well as water recovery.

Keywords: Bio-digested distillery spentwash, reverse osmosis, Response surface methodology, ultra-filtration.

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Authors: Alhaji M. H. Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Issa Fofana, Brima Gegbe, Tamba I. Isaac

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Rice grain is Sierra Leone’s staple food and the nation imports over 120,000 metric tons annually due to a shortfall in its cultivation. Thus, the insufficient level of the crop's cultivation in Sierra Leone is caused by many problems and this led to the endlessly widening supply and demand for the crop within the country. Consequently, this has instigated the government to spend huge money on the importation of this grain that would have been otherwise cultivated domestically at a cheaper cost. Hence, this research attempts to explore the response of rice supply with respect to its demand in Sierra Leone within the period 1980-2010. The Nerlovian adjustment model to the Sierra Leone rice data set within the period 1980-2010 was used. The estimated trend equations revealed that time had significant effect on output, productivity (yield) and area (acreage) of rice grain within the period 1980-2010 and this occurred generally at the 1% level of significance. The results showed that, almost the entire growth in output had the tendency to increase in the area cultivated to the crop. The time trend variable that was included for government policy intervention showed an insignificant effect on all the variables considered in this research. Therefore, both the short-run and long-run price response was inelastic since all their values were less than one. From the findings above, immediate actions that will lead to productivity growth in rice cultivation are required. To achieve the above, the responsible agencies should provide extension service schemes to farmers as well as motivating them on the adoption of modern rice varieties and technology in their rice cultivation ventures.

Keywords: Nerlovian adjustment model, price elasticities, Sierra Leone, Trend equations.

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Authors: T. Sattarpour, D. Nazarpour

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This paper investigates the effect of simultaneous placement of DGs and smart meters (SMs), on voltage profile improvement in active distribution networks (ADNs). A substantial center of attention has recently been on responsive loads initiated in power system problem studies such as distributed generations (DGs). Existence of responsive loads in active distribution networks (ADNs) would have undeniable effect on sizing and siting of DGs. For this reason, an optimal framework is proposed for sizing and siting of DGs and SMs in ADNs. SMs are taken into consideration for the sake of successful implementing of demand response programs (DRPs) such as direct load control (DLC) with end-side consumers. Looking for voltage profile improvement, the optimization procedure is solved by genetic algorithm (GA) and tested on IEEE 33-bus distribution test system. Different scenarios with variations in the number of DG units, individual or simultaneous placing of DGs and SMs, and adaptive power factor (APF) mode for DGs to support reactive power have been established. The obtained results confirm the significant effect of DRPs and APF mode in determining the optimal size and site of DGs to be connected in ADN resulting to the improvement of voltage profile as well.

Keywords: Active distribution network (ADN), distributed generations (DGs), smart meters (SMs), demand response programs (DRPs), adaptive power factor (APF).

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Authors: A. Nasiri Pour, B. Rostami Tabar, A.Rahimzadeh

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Accurate demand forecasting is one of the most key issues in inventory management of spare parts. The problem of modeling future consumption becomes especially difficult for lumpy patterns, which characterized by intervals in which there is no demand and, periods with actual demand occurrences with large variation in demand levels. However, many of the forecasting methods may perform poorly when demand for an item is lumpy. In this study based on the characteristic of lumpy demand patterns of spare parts a hybrid forecasting approach has been developed, which use a multi-layered perceptron neural network and a traditional recursive method for forecasting future demands. In the described approach the multi-layered perceptron are adapted to forecast occurrences of non-zero demands, and then a conventional recursive method is used to estimate the quantity of non-zero demands. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, their forecasts were compared to those obtained by using Syntetos & Boylan approximation, recently employed multi-layered perceptron neural network, generalized regression neural network and elman recurrent neural network in this area. The models were applied to forecast future demand of spare parts of Arak Petrochemical Company in Iran, using 30 types of real data sets. The results indicate that the forecasts obtained by using our proposed mode are superior to those obtained by using other methods.

Keywords: Lumpy Demand, Neural Network, Forecasting, Hybrid Approach.

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Authors: Shi-Yu Lu, Chung-Han Yeh, Li-Ping Chen, Yu-Cheng Chang

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This paper uses both quantitative and qualitative approaches to survey the current status of AI-related applications and the structure of key AI jobs in Taiwan's high-tech manufacturing industry, as well as the demand for professional AI talents, skills, and training. The result shows that AI applications and talent demand vary from different industries in many aspects, including technologies used, talent structure, and training methods. This paper serves as a reference for the government to establish appropriate talent training programs, and to reduce the demand gap for professional AI talents in Taiwan manufacturers.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, manufacturing, talent, training.

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Authors: Madhukar Nagare, Pankaj Dutta

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Inventory decisional environment of short life-cycle products is full of uncertainties arising from randomness and fuzziness of input parameters like customer demand requiring modeling under hybrid uncertainty. Prior inventory models incorporating fuzzy demand have unfortunately ignored stochastic variation of demand. This paper determines an unambiguous optimal order quantity from a set of n fuzzy observations in a newsvendor inventory setting in presence of fuzzy random variable demand capturing both fuzzy perception and randomness of customer demand. The stress of this paper is in providing solution procedure that attains optimality in two steps with demand information availability in linguistic phrases leading to fuzziness along with stochastic variation. The first step of solution procedure identifies and prefers one best fuzzy opinion out of all expert opinions and the second step determines optimal order quantity from the selected event that maximizes profit. The model and solution procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

Keywords: Fuzzy expected value, Fuzzy random demand, Hybrid uncertainty, Optimal order quantity, Single-period inventory

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Authors: Yamini Raju, Parminder S. Kang, Adam Moroz, Ross Clement, Ashley Hopwell, Alistair Duffy

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Accurate forecasting of fresh produce demand is one the challenges faced by Small Medium Enterprise (SME) wholesalers. This paper is an attempt to understand the cause for the high level of variability such as weather, holidays etc., in demand of SME wholesalers. Therefore, understanding the significance of unidentified factors may improve the forecasting accuracy. This paper presents the current literature on the factors used to predict demand and the existing forecasting techniques of short shelf life products. It then investigates a variety of internal and external possible factors, some of which is not used by other researchers in the demand prediction process. The results presented in this paper are further analysed using a number of techniques to minimize noise in the data. For the analysis past sales data (January 2009 to May 2014) from a UK based SME wholesaler is used and the results presented are limited to product ‘Milk’ focused on café’s in derby. The correlation analysis is done to check the dependencies of variability factor on the actual demand. Further PCA analysis is done to understand the significance of factors identified using correlation. The PCA results suggest that the cloud cover, weather summary and temperature are the most significant factors that can be used in forecasting the demand. The correlation of the above three factors increased relative to monthly and becomes more stable compared to the weekly and daily demand.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Deteriorating Products, Food Wholesalers, Principal Component Analysis and Variability Factors.

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Authors: Sulaiman Yunus

Abstract:

The need for modeling response to urban fire disaster cannot be over emphasized, as recurrent fire outbreaks have gutted most cities of the world. This necessitated the need for a prompt and efficient response system in order to mitigate the impact of the disaster. Promptness, as a function of time, is seen to be the fundamental determinant for efficiency of a response system and magnitude of a fire disaster. Delay, as a result of several factors, is one of the major determinants of promptgness of a response system and also the magnitude of a fire disaster. Response Delay Model (RDM) intends to bridge the gap in urban fire disaster response system through incorporating and synchronizing the delay moments in measuring the overall efficiency of a response system and determining the magnitude of a fire disaster. The model identified two delay moments (pre-notification and Intra-reflex sequence delay) that can be elastic and collectively plays a significant role in influencing the efficiency of a response system. Due to variation in the elasticity of the delay moments, the model provides for measuring the length of delays in order to arrive at a standard average delay moment for different parts of the world, putting into consideration geographic location, level of preparedness and awareness, technological advancement, socio-economic and environmental factors. It is recommended that participatory researches should be embarked on locally and globally to determine standard average delay moments within each phase of the system so as to enable determining the efficiency of response systems and predicting fire disaster magnitudes.

Keywords: Delay moment, fire disaster, reflex sequence, response, response delay moment.

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Authors: Chia-Hui Huang, Han-Ying Kao

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In production planning (PP) periods with excess capacity and growing demand, the manufacturers have two options to use the excess capacity. First, it could do more changeovers and thus reduce lot sizes, inventories, and inventory costs. Second, it could produce in excess of demand in the period and build additional inventory that can be used to satisfy future demand increments, thus delaying the purchase of the next machine that is required to meet the growth in demand. In this study we propose an enhanced supply chain planning model with flexible planning capability. In addition, a 3D supply chain planning system is illustrated.

Keywords: Supply chain, capacity expansion, inventory management, planning system.

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Authors: Huai-Feng Wang, Meng-Lin Lou, Ru-Lin Zhang

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One good analysis method in seismic response analysis is direct time integration, which widely adopts Rayleigh damping. An approach is presented for selection of Rayleigh damping coefficients to be used in seismic analyses to produce a response that is consistent with Modal damping response. In the presented approach, the expression of the error of peak response, acquired through complete quadratic combination method, and Rayleigh damping coefficients was set up and then the coefficients were produced by minimizing the error. Two finite element modes of soil layers, excited by 28 seismic waves, were used to demonstrate the feasibility and validity.

Keywords: Rayleigh damping, modal damping, damping coefficients, seismic response analysis.

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Authors: Nasim Shatarat, Adel Assaf

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of an analytical study on the seismic response of a Multi-Span-Simply-Supported precast bridge in Washington State. The bridge was built in the early 1960's along Interstate 5 and was widened the first time in 1979 and the second time in 2001. The primary objective of this research project is to determine the seismic vulnerability of the bridge in order to develop the required retrofit measure. The seismic vulnerability of the bridge is evaluated using two seismic evaluation methods presented in the FHWA Seismic Retrofitting Manual for Highway Bridges, Method C and Method D2. The results of the seismic analyses demonstrate that Method C and Method D2 vary markedly in terms of the information they provide to the bridge designer regarding the vulnerability of the bridge columns.

Keywords: Bridges, Capacity, Demand, Seismic, Static pushover, Retrofit.

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