Search results for: short time scale variation
8096 Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment Tools: A Conceptual Framework for Their Use in Building Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change
Authors: Sally Naji, Julie Gwilliam
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Climate change remains a challenging matter for the human and the built environment in the 21st century, where the need to consider adaptation to climate change in the development process is paramount. However, there remains a lack of information regarding how we should prepare responses to this issue, such as through developing organized and sophisticated tools enabling the adaptation process. This study aims to build a systematic framework approach to investigate the potentials that Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment tools (NSA) might offer in enabling both the analysis of the emerging adaptive capacity to climate change. The analysis of the framework presented in this paper aims to discuss this issue in three main phases. The first part attempts to link sustainability and climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity. It is argued that in deciding to promote sustainability in the context of climate change, both the resilience and vulnerability processes become central. However, there is still a gap in the current literature regarding how the sustainable development process can respond to climate change. As well as how the resilience of practical strategies might be evaluated. It is suggested that the integration of the sustainability assessment processes with both the resilience thinking process, and vulnerability might provide important components for addressing the adaptive capacity to climate change. A critical review of existing literature is presented illustrating the current lack of work in this field, integrating these three concepts in the context of addressing the adaptive capacity to climate change. The second part aims to identify the most appropriate scale at which to address the built environment for the climate change adaptation. It is suggested that the neighborhood scale can be considered as more suitable than either the building or urban scales. It then presents the example of NSAs, and discusses the need to explore their potential role in promoting the adaptive capacity to climate change. The third part of the framework presents a comparison among three example NSAs, BREEAM Communities, LEED-ND, and CASBEE-UD. These three tools have been selected as the most developed and comprehensive assessment tools that are currently available for the neighborhood scale. This study concludes that NSAs are likely to present the basis for an organized framework to address the practical process for analyzing and yet promoting Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change. It is further argued that vulnerability (exposure & sensitivity) and resilience (Interdependence & Recovery) form essential aspects to be addressed in the future assessment of NSA’s capability to adapt to both short and long term climate change impacts. Finally, it is acknowledged that further work is now required to understand impact assessment in terms of the range of physical sectors (Water, Energy, Transportation, Building, Land Use and Ecosystems), Actor and stakeholder engagement as well as a detailed evaluation of the NSA indicators, together with a barriers diagnosis process.Keywords: Adaptive capacity, climate change, NSA tools, resilience, vulnerability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21548095 Short-Path Near-Infrared Laser Detection of Environmental Gases by Wavelength-Modulation Spectroscopy
Authors: Isao Tomita
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The detection of environmental gases, 12CO2, 13CO2, and CH4, using near-infrared semiconductor lasers with a short laser path length is studied by means of wavelength-modulation spectroscopy. The developed system is compact and has high sensitivity enough to detect the absorption peaks of isotopic 13CO2 of a 3-% CO2 gas at 2 μm with a path length of 2.4 m, where its peak size is two orders of magnitude smaller than that of the ordinary 12CO2 peaks. In addition, the detection of 12CO2 peaks of a 385-ppm (0.0385-%) CO2 gas in the air is made at 2 μm with a path length of 1.4 m. Furthermore, in pursuing the detection of an ancient environmental CH4 gas confined to a bubble in ice at the polar regions, measurements of the absorption spectrum for a trace gas of CH4 in a small area are attempted. For a 100-% CH4 gas trapped in a ∼ 1 mm3 glass container, the absorption peaks of CH4 are obtained at 1.65 μm with a path length of 3 mm, and also the gas pressure is extrapolated from the measured data.
Keywords: Environmental Gases, Near-Infrared Laser Detection, Wavelength-Modulation Spectroscopy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17388094 Exploiting Two Intelligent Models to Predict Water Level: A Field Study of Urmia Lake, Iran
Authors: Shahab Kavehkar, Mohammad Ali Ghorbani, Valeriy Khokhlov, Afshin Ashrafzadeh, Sabereh Darbandi
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Water level forecasting using records of past time series is of importance in water resources engineering and management. For example, water level affects groundwater tables in low-lying coastal areas, as well as hydrological regimes of some coastal rivers. Then, a reliable prediction of sea-level variations is required in coastal engineering and hydrologic studies. During the past two decades, the approaches based on the Genetic Programming (GP) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were developed. In the present study, the GP is used to forecast daily water level variations for a set of time intervals using observed water levels. The measurements from a single tide gauge at Urmia Lake, Northwest Iran, were used to train and validate the GP approach for the period from January 1997 to July 2008. Statistics, the root mean square error and correlation coefficient, are used to verify model by comparing with a corresponding outputs from Artificial Neural Network model. The results show that both these artificial intelligence methodologies are satisfactory and can be considered as alternatives to the conventional harmonic analysis.
Keywords: Water-Level variation, forecasting, artificial neural networks, genetic programming, comparative analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23228093 Drafting the Design and Development of Micro- Controller Based Portable Soil Moisture Sensor for Advancement in Agro Engineering
Authors: Guneet Mander, Gurinder Pal Singh
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Moisture is an important consideration in many aspects ranging from irrigation, soil chemistry, golf course, corrosion and erosion, road conditions, weather predictions, livestock feed moisture levels, water seepage etc. Vegetation and crops always depend more on the moisture available at the root level than on precipitation occurrence. In this paper, design of an instrument is discussed which tells about the variation in the moisture contents of soil. This is done by measuring the amount of water content in soil by finding the variation in capacitance of soil with the help of a capacitive sensor. The greatest advantage of soil moisture sensor is reduced water consumption. The sensor is also be used to set lower and upper threshold to maintain optimum soil moisture saturation and minimize water wilting, contributes to deeper plant root growth ,reduced soil run off /leaching and less favorable condition for insects and fungal diseases. Capacitance method is preferred because, it provides absolute amount of water content and also measures water content at any depth.Keywords: Capacitive Sensors, aluminum, Water, Irrigation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19928092 Enhanced Automated Teller Machine Using Short Message Service Authentication Verification
Authors: Rasheed Gbenga Jimoh, Akinbowale Nathaniel Babatunde
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The use of Automated Teller Machine (ATM) has become an important tool among commercial banks, customers of banks have come to depend on and trust the ATM conveniently meet their banking needs. Although the overwhelming advantages of ATM cannot be over-emphasized, its alarming fraud rate has become a bottleneck in it’s full adoption in Nigeria. This study examined the menace of ATM in the society another cost of running ATM services by banks in the country. The researcher developed a prototype of an enhanced Automated Teller Machine Authentication using Short Message Service (SMS) Verification. The developed prototype was tested by Ten (10) respondents who are users of ATM cards in the country and the data collected was analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS). Based on the results of the analysis, it is being envisaged that the developed prototype will go a long way in reducing the alarming rate of ATM fraud in Nigeria.
Keywords: ATM, ATM Fraud, E-banking, Prototyping.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21688091 Antioxidant Responses to Different Exposure Regimes of Kazakhstan Light Crude Oil in Livers of Male Albino Rats
Authors: K. Mahmoud, T. Shalahmetova, B. Umbayev, Sh. Deraz
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Biochemical investigations were carried out to assess the effect of different exposure regimes of Kazakhstan crude oil (KCO) on hepatic antioxidant defense system in albino rats. Contaminants were delivered under two different dosing regimes, with all treatments receiving the same total contaminant load by the end of the exposure period. Rats in regime A injected with KCO once at a dose of 6 ml/kg bw while in regime B injected multiply at a dose of 1.5 ml/kg bw on day 1, 3, 5 and 8. Antioxidant biomarkers were measured in hepatic tissue after 1, 3, 5 and 8 days. Significant induction was observed in serum aminotransferases (ALT, AST) (p<0.01) and hepatic Glutathione-S-transferase (GST) (p<0.05) in the two exposure regimes, with the majority of significant induction occurring in regime A. Superoxide dismutase (SOD) increased 1-d after injection (p<0.01) but the increase was reduced time dependently thereafter while after 8-d induced again (p<0.01). Malondialdehyde (MDA) significantly induced after 3 and 5-d (p<0.05) in regime A while in regime B was not changed significantly (p>0.05) at short time after exposure. However, there was significant increase after 8-d (p<0.01). Histological examination indicates that crude oil induced pathologic changes from inflammatory cells infiltration to hemorrhage and necrosis of hepatocytes. Acute exposure to crude oil adversely affect hepatic cell so human must avoid such exposure.Keywords: Kazakhstan crude oil, Antioxidant biomarkers, Histological examination, Dose regime, Rats
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19518090 Investigation into the Optimum Hydraulic Loading Rate for Selected Filter Media Packed in a Continuous Upflow Filter
Authors: A. Alzeyadi, E. Loffill, R. Alkhaddar
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Continuous upflow filters can combine the nutrient (nitrogen and phosphate) and suspended solid removal in one unit process. The contaminant removal could be achieved chemically or biologically; in both processes the filter removal efficiency depends on the interaction between the packed filter media and the influent. In this paper a residence time distribution (RTD) study was carried out to understand and compare the transfer behaviour of contaminants through a selected filter media packed in a laboratory-scale continuous up flow filter; the selected filter media are limestone and white dolomite. The experimental work was conducted by injecting a tracer (red drain dye tracer –RDD) into the filtration system and then measuring the tracer concentration at the outflow as a function of time; the tracer injection was applied at hydraulic loading rates (HLRs) (3.8 to 15.2 m h-1). The results were analysed according to the cumulative distribution function F(t) to estimate the residence time of the tracer molecules inside the filter media. The mean residence time (MRT) and variance σ2 are two moments of RTD that were calculated to compare the RTD characteristics of limestone with white dolomite. The results showed that the exit-age distribution of the tracer looks better at HLRs (3.8 to 7.6 m h-1) and (3.8 m h-1) for limestone and white dolomite respectively. At these HLRs the cumulative distribution function F(t) revealed that the residence time of the tracer inside the limestone was longer than in the white dolomite; whereas all the tracer took 8 minutes to leave the white dolomite at 3.8 m h-1. On the other hand, the same amount of the tracer took 10 minutes to leave the limestone at the same HLR. In conclusion, the determination of the optimal level of hydraulic loading rate, which achieved the better influent distribution over the filtration system, helps to identify the applicability of the material as filter media. Further work will be applied to examine the efficiency of the limestone and white dolomite for phosphate removal by pumping a phosphate solution into the filter at HLRs (3.8 to 7.6 m h-1).Keywords: Filter media, hydraulic loading rate, residence time distribution, tracer.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18638089 Monitoring the Fiscal Health of Taiwan’s Local Government: Application of the 10-Point Scale of Fiscal Distress
Authors: Yuan-Hong Ho, Chiung-Ju Huang
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This article presents a monitoring indicators system that predicts whether a local government in Taiwan is heading for fiscal distress and identifies a suitable fiscal policy that would allow the local government to achieve fiscal balance in the long run. This system is relevant to stockholders’ interest, simple for national audit bodies to use, and provides an early warning of fiscal distress that allows preventative action to be taken.
Keywords: Fiscal distress, fiscal health, monitoring signals, 10-point scale.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18018088 Role of Investment in the Course of Economic Growth in Pakistan
Authors: Maqbool Hussain Sial, Maaida Hussain Hashmi, Sofia Anwar
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The present research was focused to investigate the role of investment in the course of economic growth with reference to Pakistan. The study analyzed the role of the public and private investment and impact of the political and macroeconomic uncertainty on economic growth of Pakistan by using the vector autoregressive approach (VAR). In long-run both public and private investment showed a positive impact on economic growth but the growth was largely driven by private investment as compared to public investment. Government consumption expenditure, economic uncertainty and political instability hampered the economic growth of Pakistan. In short-run the private investment positively influences the growth but there was negative and insignificant effect of the public investment and government consumption expenditure on the growth. There was a positive relationship found between economic uncertainty (proxy for inflation) and GDP in short run.Keywords: Investment, Government Consumption, Growth, Co-integration, Pakistan.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21148087 Scale, Technique and Composition Effects of CO2 Emissions under Trade Liberalization of EGS: A CGE Evaluation for Argentina
Authors: M. Priscila Ramos, Omar O. Chisari, Juan Pablo Vila Martínez
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Current literature about trade liberalization of environmental goods and services (EGS) raises doubts about the extent of the triple win-win situation for trade, development and the environment. However, much of this literature does not consider the possibility that this agreement carries technological transmissions, either through trade or foreign direct investment. This paper presents a computable general equilibrium model calibrated for Argentina, where there are alternative technologies (one dirty and one clean according to carbon emissions) to produce the same goods. In this context, the trade liberalization of EGS allows to increase GDP, trade, reduce unemployment and improve the households welfare. However, the capital mobility appears as the key assumption to jointly reach the environmental target, when the positive scale effect generated by the increase in trade is offset by the change in the composition of production (composition and technical effects by the use of the clean alternative technology) and of consumption (composition effect by substitution of relatively lesspolluting imported goods).Keywords: CGE modeling, CO2 emissions, composition effect, scale effect, technique effect, trade liberalization of EGS.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18568086 Low Jitter ADPLL based Clock Generator for High Speed SoC Applications
Authors: Moorthi S., Meganathan D., Janarthanan D., Praveen Kumar P., J. Raja paul perinbam
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An efficient architecture for low jitter All Digital Phase Locked Loop (ADPLL) suitable for high speed SoC applications is presented in this paper. The ADPLL is designed using standard cells and described by Hardware Description Language (HDL). The ADPLL implemented in a 90 nm CMOS process can operate from 10 to 200 MHz and achieve worst case frequency acquisition in 14 reference clock cycles. The simulation result shows that PLL has cycle to cycle jitter of 164 ps and period jitter of 100 ps at 100MHz. Since the digitally controlled oscillator (DCO) can achieve both high resolution and wide frequency range, it can meet the demands of system-level integration. The proposed ADPLL can easily be ported to different processes in a short time. Thus, it can reduce the design time and design complexity of the ADPLL, making it very suitable for System-on-Chip (SoC) applications.Keywords: All Digital Phase Locked Loop (ADPLL), Systemon-Chip (SoC), Phase Locked Loop (PLL), Very High speedIntegrated Circuit (VHSIC) Hardware Description Language(VHDL), Digitally Controlled Oscillator (DCO), Phase frequencydetector (PFD) and Voltage Controlled Oscillator (VCO).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 30558085 Impact of Revenue Gap on Budget Deficit, Debt Burden and Economic Growth: An Evidence from Pakistan
Authors: M. W. Siddiqi, M. Ilyas
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Availability and mobilization of revenue is the main essential with which an economy is managed and run. While planning or while making the budgets nations set revenue targets to be achieved. But later when the accounts are closed the actual collections of revenue through taxes or even the non-tax revenue collection would invariably be different as compared to the initial estimates and targets set to be achieved. This revenue-gap distorts the whole system and the economy disturbing all the major macroeconomic indicators. This study is aimed to find out short and long term impact of revenue gap on budget deficit, debt burden and economic growth on the economy of Pakistan. For this purpose the study uses autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration and error correction mechanism on three different models for the period 1980 to 2009. The empirical results show that revenue gap has a short and long run relationship with economic growth and budget deficit. However, revenue gap has no impact on debt burden.Keywords: Revenue Gap, Economic Growth, Budget Deficit, Debt Burden
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 28088084 P-ACO Approach to Assignment Problem in FMSs
Authors: I. Mahdavi, A. Jazayeri, M. Jahromi, R. Jafari, H. Iranmanesh
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One of the most important problems in production planning of flexible manufacturing system (FMS) is machine tool selection and operation allocation problem that directly influences the production costs and times .In this paper minimizing machining cost, set-up cost and material handling cost as a multi-objective problem in flexible manufacturing systems environment are considered. We present a 0-1 integer linear programming model for the multiobjective machine tool selection and operation allocation problem and due to the large scale nature of the problem, solving the problem to obtain optimal solution in a reasonable time is infeasible, Paretoant colony optimization (P-ACO) approach for solving the multiobjective problem in reasonable time is developed. Experimental results indicate effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for solving the problem.
Keywords: Flexible manufacturing system, Production planning, Machine tool selection, Operation allocation, Multiobjective optimization, Metaheuristic.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18988083 Phasor Analysis of a Synchronous Generator: A Bond Graph Approach
Authors: Israel Núñez-Hernández, Peter C. Breedveld, Paul B. T. Weustink, Gilberto Gonzalez-A
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This paper presents the use of phasor bond graphs to obtain the steady-state behavior of a synchronous generator. The phasor bond graph elements are built using 2D multibonds, which represent the real and imaginary part of the phasor. The dynamic bond graph model of a salient-pole synchronous generator is showed, and verified viz. a sudden short-circuit test. The reduction of the dynamic model into a phasor representation is described. The previous test is executed on the phasor bond graph model, and its steady-state values are compared with the dynamic response. Besides, the widely used power (torque)-angle curves are obtained by means of the phasor bond graph model, to test the usefulness of this model.
Keywords: Bond graphs, complex power, phasors, synchronous generator, short-circuit, open-circuit, power-angle curve.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 25448082 Modification of Electrical and Switching Characteristics of a Non Punch-Through Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor by Gamma Irradiation
Authors: Hani Baek, Gwang Min Sun, Chansun Shin, Sung Ho Ahn
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Fast neutron irradiation using nuclear reactors is an effective method to improve switching loss and short circuit durability of power semiconductor (insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBT) and insulated gate transistors (IGT), etc.). However, not only fast neutrons but also thermal neutrons, epithermal neutrons and gamma exist in the nuclear reactor. And the electrical properties of the IGBT may be deteriorated by the irradiation of gamma. Gamma irradiation damages are known to be caused by Total Ionizing Dose (TID) effect and Single Event Effect (SEE), Displacement Damage. Especially, the TID effect deteriorated the electrical properties such as leakage current and threshold voltage of a power semiconductor. This work can confirm the effect of the gamma irradiation on the electrical properties of 600 V NPT-IGBT. Irradiation of gamma forms lattice defects in the gate oxide and Si-SiO2 interface of the IGBT. It was confirmed that this lattice defect acts on the center of the trap and affects the threshold voltage, thereby negatively shifted the threshold voltage according to TID. In addition to the change in the carrier mobility, the conductivity modulation decreases in the n-drift region, indicating a negative influence that the forward voltage drop decreases. The turn-off delay time of the device before irradiation was 212 ns. Those of 2.5, 10, 30, 70 and 100 kRad(Si) were 225, 258, 311, 328, and 350 ns, respectively. The gamma irradiation increased the turn-off delay time of the IGBT by approximately 65%, and the switching characteristics deteriorated.Keywords: NPT-IGBT, gamma irradiation, switching, turn-off delay time, recombination, trap center.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8618081 Observation of Large-Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbance over Peninsular Malaysia Using GPS Receivers
Authors: Intan Izafina Idrus, Mardina Abdullah, Alina Marie Hasbi, Asnawi Husin
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This paper presents the result of large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbance (LSTID) observation during moderate magnetic storm event on 25 October 2011 with SYM-H ~ -160 nT and Kp ~ 7 over Peninsular Malaysia at equatorial region using vertical total electron content (VTEC) from the Global Positioning System (GPS) observation measurement. The propagation of the LSTID signatures in the TEC measurements over Peninsular Malaysia was also investigated using VTEC map. The LSTID was found to propagate equatorward during this event. The results showed that the LSTID propagated with an average phase velocity of 526.41 m/s and average periods of 140 min. The occurrence of this LSTID was also found to be the subsequent effects of substorm activities in the auroral region.
Keywords: Global Positioning System (GPS), large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbance (LSTID), moderate geomagnetic storm, vertical total electron content (VTEC).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20838080 Stress and Social Support as Predictors of Quality of Life: A Case among Flood Victims in Malaysia
Authors: Najib Ahmad Marzuki, Che Su Mustaffa, Johana Johari, Nur Hafizza Rahaman
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects and relationship of stress and social support towards the quality of life among flood victims in Malaysia. A total of 764 respondents took part in the survey via convenience sampling. The Depression, Anxiety and Stress scale (DASS) was utilized to measure stress while The Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support was used to measure social support. To measure quality of life, the combination of WHO Quality of Life – BREF (WHOQOL-BREF) and The Impact of Event Scale – Revised (IES-R) were utilized. The findings of this study indicate that there were significant correlations between variables in the study. The findings showed a significant negative relation between stress and quality of life; and significant positive correlations between support from family as well as support from friends with quality of life. Stress and support from family were found to be significant predictors that influence the quality of life among flood victims.Keywords: Stress, social support, quality of life, flood victims.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 25208079 Proposal of a Means for Reducing the Torque Variation on a Vertical-Axis Water Turbine by Increasing the Blade Number
Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, S. De Betta, E. Benini
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This paper presents a means for reducing the torque variation during the revolution of a vertical-axis water turbine (VAWaterT) by increasing the blade number. For this purpose, twodimensional CFD analyses have been performed on a straight-bladed Darrieus-type rotor. After describing the computational model and the relative validation procedure, a complete campaign of simulations, based on full RANS unsteady calculations, is proposed for a three, four and five-bladed rotor architectures, characterized by a NACA 0025 airfoil. For each proposed rotor configuration, flow field characteristics are investigated at several values of tip speed ratio, allowing a quantification of the influence of blade number on flow geometric features and dynamic quantities, such as rotor torque and power. Finally, torque and power curves are compared for the three analyzed architectures, achieving a quantification of the effect of blade number on overall rotor performance.Keywords: Vertical-Axis Water Turbine, rotor solidity, CFD, NACA 0025
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20808078 A DEA Model for Performance Evaluation in The Presence of Time Lag Effect
Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong
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Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a methodology that computes efficiency values for decision making units (DMU) in a given period by comparing the outputs with the inputs. In many cases, there are some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. For a long-term research project, it is hard to avoid the production lead time phenomenon. This time lag effect should be considered in evaluating the performance of organizations. This paper suggests a model to calculate efficiency values for the performance evaluation problem with time lag. In the experimental part, the proposed methods are compared with the CCR and an existing time lag model using the data set of the 21st century frontier R&D program which is a long-term national R&D program of Korea.Keywords: DEA, Efficiency, Time Lag
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18848077 Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Using Multiple Gaussian Process Models
Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Hitoshi Takata, Seiji Fukushima, Yasutaka Igarashi
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This paper presents a Gaussian process model-based short-term electric load forecasting. The Gaussian process model is a nonparametric model and the output of the model has Gaussian distribution with mean and variance. The multiple Gaussian process models as every hour ahead predictors are used to forecast future electric load demands up to 24 hours ahead in accordance with the direct forecasting approach. The separable least-squares approach that combines the linear least-squares method and genetic algorithm is applied to train these Gaussian process models. Simulation results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed electric load forecasting.
Keywords: Direct method, electric load forecasting, Gaussian process model, genetic algorithm, separable least-squares method.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19698076 Forecasting Enrollment Model Based on First-Order Fuzzy Time Series
Authors: Melike Şah, Konstantin Y.Degtiarev
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This paper proposes a novel improvement of forecasting approach based on using time-invariant fuzzy time series. In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, fuzzy time series can be also applied to problems, in which historical data are linguistic values. It is shown that proposed time-invariant method improves the performance of forecasting process. Further, the effect of using different number of fuzzy sets is tested as well. As with the most of cited papers, historical enrollment of the University of Alabama is used in this study to illustrate the forecasting process. Subsequently, the performance of the proposed method is compared with existing fuzzy time series time-invariant models based on forecasting accuracy. It reveals a certain performance superiority of the proposed method over methods described in the literature.
Keywords: Forecasting, fuzzy time series, linguistic values, student enrollment, time-invariant model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22128075 Finite-time Stability Analysis of Fractional-order with Multi-state Time Delay
Authors: Liqiong Liu, Shouming Zhong
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In this paper, the finite-time stabilization of a class of multi-state time delay of fractional-order system is proposed. First, we define finite-time stability with the fractional-order system. Second, by using Generalized Gronwall's approach and the methods of the inequality, we get some conditions of finite-time stability for the fractional system with multi-state delay. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the result.
Keywords: Finite-time stabilization, fractional-order system, Gronwall inequality.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18938074 Thermal Characterization of Smart and Large-Scale Building Envelope System in a Subtropical Climate
Authors: Andrey A. Chernousov, Ben Y. B. Chan
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The thermal behavior of a large-scale, phase change material (PCM) enhanced building envelope system was studied in regard to the need for pre-fabricated construction in subtropical regions. The proposed large-scale envelope consists of a reinforced aluminum skin, insulation core, phase change material and reinforced gypsum board. The PCM impact on an energy efficiency of an enveloped room was resolved by validation of the EnergyPlus numerical scheme and optimization of a smart material location in the core. The PCM location was optimized by a minimization method of a cooling energy demand. It has been shown that there is good agreement between the test and simulation results. The optimal location of the PCM layer in Hong Kong summer conditions has been then recomputed for core thicknesses of 40, 60 and 80 mm. A non-dimensional value of the optimal PCM location was obtained to be same for all the studied cases and the considered external and internal conditions.
Keywords: Thermal performance, phase change material, energy efficiency, PCM optimization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22188073 Buckling Resistance of GFRP Sandwich Infill Panels with Different Cores under Increased Temperatures
Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, Woo Young Jung
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This paper presents numerical analysis in terms of buckling resistance of GFRP sandwich infill panels system under the influence of increased temperature on the foam core. Failure mode under in-plane compression is studied by means of numerical analysis with ABAQUS platform. Parameters considered in this study are contact length and both the type of foam for core and the variation of its module elastic under the thermal influence. Increment of temperature is considered in static cases and only applied to core. Indeed, it is proven that the effect of temperature alters the mechanical properties of the entire panel system. Moreover, the rises of temperature result in a decrease in strength of the panel. This is due to the polymeric nature of this material. Additionally, the contact length also displays the effect on performance of infill panel. Their significance factors are based on type of polymer for core. Therefore, by comparing difference type of core material, the variation can be reducing.Keywords: Buckling, contact length, foam core, temperature dependent.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19048072 Life Experiences are Important Factors of Making Stronger SOC (Sense of Coherence) on the Workers in Tsukuba Research Park City (TRPC)
Authors: Shinichiro Sasahara, Yusuke Tomotsune, Yuichi Ohi, Shun Suzuki, Akihiro Seki, Junko Sakano, Yoshihiko Yamazaki, Ichiyo Matsuzaki
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Via a large scale cross-sectional study among Japanese white color workers, the authors aimed to elucidate: (1) the distributions of Sense of Coherence (SOC), which reflect stress coping abilities, (2) the distributions of Life experience; (3) and the association between SOC and Life experience. Anonymous self-administered questionnaires were sent to 15,891 in 2001 and 21,922 in 2011 employees at educational and research institutions in Tsukuba Research Park City. A total of 5,868 (36.9%) and 9,528 (43.5%) respectively workers completed and returned the questionnaire; 5,715 and 9,515 respectively workers without missing data were analyzed. SOC scale scores differed by gender, age, and other demographic features in both study years. Among the life experiences, workers who have got over parenting or management position were higher SOC scale scores adjusted by gender and age. The life experiences that workers have got over could develop their stronger SOC in their life course.
Keywords: field study, life experience, mental health, SOC (sense of coherence)
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15308071 Real-time Network Anomaly Detection Systems Based on Machine-Learning Algorithms
Authors: Zahra Ramezanpanah, Joachim Carvallo, Aurelien Rodriguez
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This paper aims to detect anomalies in streaming data using machine learning algorithms. In this regard, we designed two separate pipelines and evaluated the effectiveness of each separately. The first pipeline, based on supervised machine learning methods, consists of two phases. In the first phase, we trained several supervised models using the UNSW-NB15 data set. We measured the efficiency of each using different performance metrics and selected the best model for the second phase. At the beginning of the second phase, we first, using Argus Server, sniffed a local area network. Several types of attacks were simulated and then sent the sniffed data to a running algorithm at short intervals. This algorithm can display the results of each packet of received data in real-time using the trained model. The second pipeline presented in this paper is based on unsupervised algorithms, in which a Temporal Graph Network (TGN) is used to monitor a local network. The TGN is trained to predict the probability of future states of the network based on its past behavior. Our contribution in this section is introducing an indicator to identify anomalies from these predicted probabilities.
Keywords: Cyber-security, Intrusion Detection Systems, Temporal Graph Network, Anomaly Detection.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4758070 Catchment Yield Prediction in an Ungauged Basin Using PyTOPKAPI
Authors: B. S. Fatoyinbo, D. Stretch, O. T. Amoo, D. Allopi
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This study extends the use of the Drainage Area Regionalization (DAR) method in generating synthetic data and calibrating PyTOPKAPI stream yield for an ungauged basin at a daily time scale. The generation of runoff in determining a river yield has been subjected to various topographic and spatial meteorological variables, which integers form the Catchment Characteristics Model (CCM). Many of the conventional CCM models adapted in Africa have been challenged with a paucity of adequate, relevance and accurate data to parameterize and validate the potential. The purpose of generating synthetic flow is to test a hydrological model, which will not suffer from the impact of very low flows or very high flows, thus allowing to check whether the model is structurally sound enough or not. The employed physically-based, watershed-scale hydrologic model (PyTOPKAPI) was parameterized with GIS-pre-processing parameters and remote sensing hydro-meteorological variables. The validation with mean annual runoff ratio proposes a decent graphical understanding between observed and the simulated discharge. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.704 and 0.739 proves strong model efficiency. Given the current climate variability impact, water planner can now assert a tool for flow quantification and sustainable planning purposes.
Keywords: Ungauged Basin, Catchment Characteristics Model, Synthetic data, GIS.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12998069 Formation of Protective Aluminum-Oxide Layer on the Surface of Fe-Cr-Al Sintered-Metal-Fibers via Multi-Stage Thermal Oxidation
Authors: Loai Ben Naji, Osama M. Ibrahim, Khaled J. Al-Fadhalah
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The objective of this paper is to investigate the formation and adhesion of a protective aluminum-oxide (Al2O3, alumina) layer on the surface of Iron-Chromium-Aluminum Alloy (Fe-Cr-Al) sintered-metal-fibers. The oxide-scale layer was developed via multi-stage thermal oxidation at 930 oC for 1 hour, followed by 1 hour at 960 oC, and finally at 990 oC for 2 hours. Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) images show that the multi-stage thermal oxidation resulted in the formation of predominantly Al2O3 platelets-like and whiskers. SEM images also reveal non-uniform oxide-scale growth on the surface of the fibers. Furthermore, peeling/spalling of the alumina protective layer occurred after minimum handling, which indicates weak adhesion forces between the protective layer and the base metal alloy. Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) analysis of the heat-treated Fe-Cr-Al sintered-metal-fibers confirmed the high aluminum content on the surface of the protective layer, and the low aluminum content on the exposed base metal alloy surface. In conclusion, the failure of the oxide-scale protective layer exposes the base metal alloy to further oxidation, and the fragile non-uniform oxide-scale is not suitable as a support for catalysts.
Keywords: High-temperature oxidation, alumina protective layer, iron-chromium-aluminum alloy, sintered-metal-fibers.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8808068 Assessing Efficiency Trends in the Indian Sugar Industry
Authors: S. P. Singh
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This paper measures technical and scale efficiencies of 40 Indian sugar companies for the period from 2004-05 to 2013-14. The efficiencies are estimated through input-oriented DEA models using one output variable—value of output (VOP) and five input variables—capital cost (CA), employee cost (EMP), raw material (RW), energy & fuel (E&F) and other manufacturing expenses (OME). The sugar companies are classified into integrated and non-integrated categories to know which one achieves higher level of efficiency. Sources of inefficiency in the industry are identified through decomposing the overall technical efficiency (TE) into pure technical efficiency (PTE) and scale efficiency (SE). The paper also estimates input-reduction targets for relatively inefficient companies and suggests measures to improve their efficiency level. The findings reveal that the TE does not evince any trend rather it shows fluctuations across years, largely due to erratic and cyclical pattern of sugar production. Further, technical inefficiency in the industry seems to be driven more by the managerial inefficiency than the scale inefficiency, which implies that TE can be improved through better conversion of inputs into output.
Keywords: Sugar industry, companies, technical efficiency, data envelopment analysis, targets.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13348067 Time Temperature Dependence of Long Fiber Reinforced Polypropylene Manufactured by Direct Long Fiber Thermoplastic Process
Authors: K. A. Weidenmann, M. Grigo, B. Brylka, P. Elsner, T. Böhlke
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In order to reduce fuel consumption, the weight of automobiles has to be reduced. Fiber reinforced polymers offer the potential to reach this aim because of their high stiffness to weight ratio. Additionally, the use of fiber reinforced polymers in automotive applications has to allow for an economic large-scale production. In this regard, long fiber reinforced thermoplastics made by direct processing offer both mechanical performance and processability in injection moulding and compression moulding. The work presented in this contribution deals with long glass fiber reinforced polypropylene directly processed in compression moulding (D-LFT). For the use in automotive applications both the temperature and the time dependency of the materials properties have to be investigated to fulfill performance requirements during crash or the demands of service temperatures ranging from -40 °C to 80 °C. To consider both the influence of temperature and time, quasistatic tensile tests have been carried out at different temperatures. These tests have been complemented by high speed tensile tests at different strain rates. As expected, the increase in strain rate results in an increase of the elastic modulus which correlates to an increase of the stiffness with decreasing service temperature. The results are in good accordance with results determined by dynamic mechanical analysis within the range of 0.1 to 100 Hz. The experimental results from different testing methods were grouped and interpreted by using different time temperature shift approaches. In this regard, Williams-Landel-Ferry and Arrhenius approach based on kinetics have been used. As the theoretical shift factor follows an arctan function, an empirical approach was also taken into consideration. It could be shown that this approach describes best the time and temperature superposition for glass fiber reinforced polypropylene manufactured by D-LFT processing.
Keywords: Composite, long fiber reinforced thermoplastics, mechanical properties, dynamic mechanical analysis, time temperature superposition.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1690