Search results for: Co-integration

Authors: Chen-Yin Kuo

Abstract:

This paper fist examines three set of bivariate cointegrations between any two of current accounts, stock markets, and currency exchange markets in ten Asian countries. Furthermore, we examined the effect of country characters on this bivariate cointegration. Our findings suggest that for three sets of cointegration test, each sample country at least exists one cointegration. India consistently exhibited a bi-directional causal relationship between any two of three indicators. Unlike Pan et al. (2007) and Phylaktis and Ravazzolo (2005), we found that such cointegration is influenced by three characteristics: capital control; flexibility in foreign exchange rates; and the ratio of trade to GDP. These characteristics are the result of liberalization in each Asian country. This implies that liberalization policies are effective on improving the cointegration between any two of financial markets and current account for ten Asian countries.

Keywords: Current account, stock price, foreign exchange rate, country characteristics, bivariate cointegration, bi-directional causal relationships.

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Authors: Chang Lee Shu-Jung, Mei-Se Chien, Chien-Chiang Lee, Hui-Ting Hu

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This paper applies recursive cointegration analysis to examine the dynamic changes in Feldstein-Horioka saving-investment (S-I) coefficients across China and the ASEAN-5 countries over time. To the extent that the S-I coefficients measure international capital mobility, the main empirical results are as follows. The recursive trace statistics show that the investment- savings nexus varies in these six countries. There is no cointegration between investment and savings in three countries (China, Malaysia, and Singapore), which means that the mobility of the capital markets in the three is high and that domestic investment in them will be financed by the global pool of capital. As to the other three countries (Indonesia, Thailand, and Philippines), there is cointegration between investment and savings for part of the sample period in the three, including before 2002 for Thailand, before 2001 for Indonesia, and before 2002 for Philippines. This shows these three countries achieved highly mobile and open capital markets later.

Keywords: Investment, savings, recursive cointegration test, ASEAN, China.

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Authors: Johannes T. Tsoku, Teboho J. Mosikari, Diteboho Xaba, Thatoyaone Modise

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This paper examines the relationship between manufacturing growth and economic growth in South Africa using quarterly data ranging from 2001 to 2014. The paper employed the Johansen cointegration to test the Kaldor’s hypothesis. The Johansen cointegration results revealed that there is a long run relationship between GDP, manufacturing, service and employment. The Granger causality results revealed that there is a unidirectional causality running from manufacturing growth to GDP growth. The overall findings of the study confirm that Kaldor’s first law of growth is applicable in South African economy. Therefore, investment strategies and policies should be alignment towards promoting growth in the manufacturing sector in order to boost the economic growth of South Africa.

Keywords: Cointegration, economic growth, Kaldor’s law, manufacturing growth.

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Authors: Sagaren Pillay

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This study empirically examines the long run equilibrium relationship between South Africa’s exports and imports using quarterly data from 1985 to 2012. The theoretical framework used for the study is based on Johansen’s Maximum Likelihood cointegration technique which tests for both the existence and number of cointegration vectors that exists. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant cointegrating relationship is found to exist between exports and imports. The study models this unique linear and lagged relationship using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The findings of the study confirm the existence of a long run equilibrium relationship between exports and imports.

Keywords: Cointegration lagged, linear, maximum likelihood, vector error correction model.

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Authors: Mei-Se Chien, Chien-Chiang Lee, Sin-Jie Cai

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The main purpose of this paper is to investigate thelong-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics of international housing prices when macroeconomic variables change. We apply the Pedroni’s, panel cointegration, using the unbalanced panel data analysis of 33 countries over the period from 1980Q1 to 2013Q1, to examine the relationships among house prices and macroeconomic variables. Our empirical results of panel data cointegration tests support the existence of a cointegration among these macroeconomic variables and house prices. Besides, the empirical results of panel DOLS further present that a 1% increase in economic activity, long-term interest rates, and construction costs cause house prices to respectively change 2.16%, -0.04%, and 0.22% in the long run.Furthermore, the increasing economic activity and the construction cost would cause strongerimpacts on the house prices for lower income countries than higher income countries.The results lead to the conclusion that policy of house prices growth can be regarded as economic growth for lower income countries. Finally, in America region, the coefficient of economic activity is the highest, which displays that increasing economic activity causes a faster rise in house prices there than in other regions. There are some special cases whereby the coefficients of interest rates are significantly positive in America and Asia regions.

Keywords: House prices, Macroeconomic Variables, Panel cointegration, Dynamic OLS.

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Authors: Manoela Cabo da Silva, Elton Fernandes, Ricardo Pacheco, Heloisa Pires

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This study examined cointegration and causal relationships between economic growth and regular domestic and international passenger air transport in Brazil. Total passengers embarked and disembarked were used as a proxy for air transport activity and gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy for economic development. The test spanned the period from 2000 to 2015 for domestic passenger traffic and from 1995 to 2015 for international traffic. The results confirm the hypothesis that there is cointegration between passenger traffic series and economic development, showing a bi-directional Granger causal relationship between domestic traffic and economic development and unidirectional influence by economic growth on international passenger air transport demand. Variance decomposition of the series showed that domestic air transport was far more important than international transport to promoting economic development in Brazil.

Keywords: Air passenger transport, cointegration, economic growth, GDP, granger causality.

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Authors: A. Iqbal, N. Khalid, S. Rafiq

Abstract:

The interrelationship between international stock markets has been a key study area among the financial market researchers for international portfolio management and risk measurement. The characteristics of security returns and their dynamics play a vital role in the financial market theory. This study is an attempt to find out the dynamic linkages among the equity market of USA and emerging markets of Pakistan and India using daily data covering the period of January 2003–December 2009. The study utilizes Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 1988) and Johansen and Juselius (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 1990) cointegration procedure for long run relationship and Granger-causality tests based on Toda and Yamamoto (Journal of Econometrics, 66, 1995) methodology. No cointegration was found among stock markets of USA, Pakistan and India, while Granger-causality test showed the evidence of unidirectional causality running from New York stock exchange to Bombay and Karachi stock exchanges.

Keywords: Causality, Cointegration, India, Pakistan, Stock Markets, US.

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Authors: M. Ilyas, M. W. Siddiqi

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This study employs auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach to cointegration for long run and errorcorrection modeling (ECM) for short run analysis to examine the relationship between revenue gap and economic growth for Pakistan using annual time series data over the period 1980 to 2008. The short and long run results indicate that revenue gap is statistical significant and negatively effect economic growth. The significant and negative coefficient of error correction term in ECM indicates that after a shock, the long rum equilibrium will again converge towards equilibrium about 10.406 percent within a year.

Keywords: ARDL cointegration, Economic Growth, RevenueGap, Pakistan.

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Authors: H. Mahmood, M. W. Siddiqi, A. Iqbal, M. A. Tabassum

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This study examines the relationships between foreign aid, levels of schooling and democracy for Pakistan using the ARDL cointegration approach. The results of study provide strong evidence for fairly robust long run as well as short run relationships among these variables for the period 1973-2008. The results state that foreign aid and primary school enrollments have negative impact on democracy index and high school enrollments have positive impact on democracy index in Pakistan. The study suggests for promotion of education levels and relies on local resources instead of foreign aid for a good quality of political institutions in Pakistan.

Keywords: Cointegration, Democracy, Education, Foreign Aid

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Authors: Ayşen Edirneligil, Mehmet Mucuk

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In developing countries, one of the most important restrictions about the economic growth is the lack of national savings which are supposed to finance the investments. In order to overcome this restriction and achieve the higher rate of economic growth by increasing the level of output, countries choose the external borrowing. However, there is a dispute in the literature over the correlation between external debt and economic growth. The aim of this study is to examine the effects of external debt on Turkish economic growth by using VAR analysis with the quarterly data over the period of 2002:01-2014:04. In this respect, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse- Response Function and Variance Decomposition Tests will be used for analyses. Empirical findings show that there is no cointegration in the long run.

Keywords: Economic growth, external debt, time series analysis, Turkish economy.

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Authors: Dimitris Georgoutsos, Petros M. Migiakis

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The concurrent era is characterised by strengthened interactions among financial markets and increased capital mobility globally. In this frames we examine the effects the international financial integration process has on the European bond markets. We perform a comparative study of the interactions of the European and international bond markets and exploit Cointegration analysis results on the elimination of stochastic trends and the decomposition of the underlying long run equilibria and short run causal relations. Our investigation provides evidence on the relation between the European integration process and that of globalisation, viewed through the bond markets- sector. Additionally the structural formulation applied, offers significant implications of the findings. All in all our analysis offers a number of answers on crucial queries towards the European bond markets integration process.

Keywords: financial integration, bond markets, cointegration

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Authors: T. Hussain, A. Iqbal, M. W. Siddiqi

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The objective of this study is to examine the validity of Wagner-s law and relationship between economic growth, population and export for Pakistan. The ARDL Bounds cointegration and ECM are utilized for long and short run equilibrium for the period of 1972-2007. Population has considerable role in an economy and exports are the main source to raise the GDP. With the increase in GDP, the government expenditures may or may not increase. The empirical results indicate that the Wagner-s Law does hold, as economic growth is significantly and positively correlated with government expenditures. However, population and exports have also significant and positive impact on government expenditures both in short and long run. The significant and negative coefficient of error correction term in ECM indicates that after a shock, the long rum equilibrium will again converge towards equilibrium about 70.82 percent within a year.

Keywords: ARDL Cointegration, Growth, Pakistan, Wagner's law.

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Authors: B. Skrabic, N. Tomic-Plazibat

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In this paper real money demand function is analyzed within multivariate time-series framework. Cointegration approach is used (Johansen procedure) assuming interdependence between money demand determinants, which are nonstationary variables. This will help us to understand the behavior of money demand in Croatia, revealing the significant influence between endogenous variables in vector autoregrression system (VAR), i.e. vector error correction model (VECM). Exogeneity of the explanatory variables is tested. Long-run money demand function is estimated indicating slow speed of adjustment of removing the disequilibrium. Empirical results provide the evidence that real industrial production and exchange rate explains the most variations of money demand in the long-run, while interest rate is significant only in short-run.

Keywords: Cointegration, Long-run equilibrium, Money demand function, Vector error correction model.

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Authors: Noor A. Auzairy, Rubi Ahmad, Catherine S.F. Ho, Ros Z. Z. Sapian

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This paper is to explore the relationship and the level of stock market integration of the Asian countries, primarily concentrating on Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea, with the world from January 1997 to December 2009. The degree of short-run and long-run stock market integration of those Asian countries are analyzed in order to determine the significance of series of regional and world financial crises, liberalization policies and other financial reforms in influencing the level of stock market integration. To test for cointegration, this paper applies coefficient correlation, univariate regression analyses, cointegration tests, and vector autoregressive models (VAR) by using the four Asian stock markets main indices and the MSCI World index. The empirical findings from this work reveal that there is no long-run stock market integration for the four countries and the world market. However, there is short run integration.

Keywords: Asia, integration, relationship, stock market.

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Authors: Sahbi Farhani

Abstract:

This study investigates the relationship between external debt and military spending in case of India over the period of 1970–2012. In doing so, we have applied the structural break unit root tests to examine stationarity properties of the variables. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to test whether cointegration exists in presence of structural breaks stemming in the series. Our results indicate the cointegration among external debt, military spending, debt servicing, and economic growth. Moreover, military spending and debt servicing add in external debt. Economic growth helps in lowering external debt. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis and Granger causality test reveal that military spending and economic growth cause external debt. The feedback effect also exists between external debt and debt servicing in case of India.

Keywords: External debt, military spending, ARDL approach, structural breaks, India.

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Authors: Zainudin Arsad, Norul Baine Mat Johor

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Tourism industry is an important sector in Malaysia economy and this motivates the examination of long-run relationships between tourist arrivals from three selected European countries in Malaysia and four possible determinants; relative prices, exchange rates, transportation cost and relative prices of substitute destination. The study utilizes data from January 1999 to September 2008 and employs standard econometric techniques that include unit root test and cointegration test. The estimated demand model indicates that depreciation of local currency and increases in prices at substitute destination have positive impact on tourist arrivals while increase in transportation cost has negative impact on tourist arrivals. In addition, the model suggests that higher rate of increase in local prices relative to prices at tourist country of origin may not deter tourists from coming to Malaysia

Keywords: origin country, unit root test, cointegration test

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Authors: Okezie A. Ihugba

Abstract:

The bounds testing ARDL (2, 2, 2, 2, 0) technique to cointegration was used in this study to investigate the effect of energy consumption and energy loss on Nigeria's manufacturing sector from 1981 to 2020. The model was created to determine the relationship between these three variables while also accounting for interactions with control variables such as inflation and commercial bank loans to the manufacturing sector. When the dependent variables are energy consumption and energy loss, the bound tests show that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run. Because electricity consumption is a critical factor in determining manufacturing value-added in Nigeria, some intriguing observations were made. According to the findings, the relationship between log of electricity consumption (LELC) and log of manufacturing value added (LMVA) is statistically significant. According to the findings, electricity consumption reduces manufacturing value-added. The target variable (energy loss) is statistically significant and has a positive sign. In Nigeria, a 1% reduction in energy loss increases manufacturing value-added by 36% in the first lag and 35% in the second. According to the study, the government should speed up the ongoing renovation of existing power plants across the country, as well as the construction of new gas-fired power plants. This will address a number of issues, including overpricing of electricity as a result of grid failure.

Keywords: ARDL, cointegration, Nigeria's manufacturing, electricity.

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Authors: Okwan Frank

Abstract:

Maternal health outcome is one of the major population development challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa. The region has the highest maternal mortality ratio, despite the progressive economic growth in the region during the global economic crisis. It has been hypothesized that increase in economic growth will reduce the level of maternal mortality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the existence of the negative relationship between health outcome proxy by maternal mortality ratio and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study used the Pooled Mean Group estimator of ARDL Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Kao test for cointegration to examine the short-run and long-run relationship between maternal mortality and economic growth. The results of the cointegration test showed the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables considered for the study. The long-run result of the Pooled Mean group estimates confirmed the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between maternal health outcome proxy by maternal mortality ratio and economic growth proxy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. Thus increasing economic growth by investing in the health care systems to reduce pregnancy and childbirth complications will help reduce maternal mortality in the sub-region.

Keywords: Economic growth, maternal mortality, pool mean group, Sub-Saharan Africa.

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Authors: Andres G. Victorio, Montita Rungswang

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A free-trade agreement is found to increase Thailand-s agricultural imports from New Zealand, despite the short span of time for which the agreement has been operational. The finding is described by autoregressive estimates that correct for possible unit roots in the data. The agreement-s effect upon imports is also estimated while considering an error-correction model of imports against gross domestic product.

Keywords: Agricultural imports, free trade, unit roots, cointegration, error correction.

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Authors: T. Hussain, M. W. Siddiqi, A. Iqbal

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The study is aimed to test causal relationship between growth and unemployment, using time series data for Pakistan from 1972 to 2006. Growth is considered to be a pathway to decrease the level of unemployment. Unemployment is a social and political issue. It is a phenomenon where human resources are wasted leading to deacceleration in growth. Johanson Cointegration shows that there is long run relationship between growth and unemployment. For short run dynamics and causality, the study utilizes Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of VECM indicate that there is short and long run causal relation between growth and unemployment including capital, labor and human capital as explanatory variables.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Unemployment, Cointegrationand Causality.

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Authors: Vincent Fromentin

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This paper examines whether or not immigration has a positive influence on the duration of unemployment, in a macroeconomic perspective. We analyse also whether the degree of labor market integration can influence migration. The integration of immigrants into the labor market is a recurrence theme in the work on the economic consequences of immigration. However, to our knowledge, no researchers have studied the impact of immigration on unemployment duration, and vice versa. With two methodology of research (panel estimations (OLS and 2SLS) and panel cointegration techniques), we show that migration seems to influence positively the short-term unemployment and negatively long-term unemployment, for 14 OECD destination countries. In addition, immigration seems to be conditioned by the structural and institutional characteristics of the labour market.

Keywords: international migration, unemployment duration, OECD countries, panel data

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Authors: Paul Lajbcygier, Seng Lee

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Co-integration models the long-term, equilibrium relationship of two or more related financial variables. Even if cointegration is found, in the short run, there may be deviations from the long run equilibrium relationship. The aim of this work is to forecast these deviations using neural networks and create a trading strategy based on them. A case study is used: co-integration residuals from Australian Bank Bill futures are forecast and traded using various exogenous input variables combined with neural networks. The choice of the optimal exogenous input variables chosen for each neural network, undertaken in previous work [1], is validated by comparing the forecasts and corresponding profitability of each, using a trading strategy.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, co-integration, forecasting, trading rule.

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Authors: K. Bokreta, D. Benanaya

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The objective of this study is to examine the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in Algeria using the econometric modelling techniques of cointegration and vector error correction modelling to analyse and draw policy inferences. The chosen variables of fiscal policy are government expenditure and net taxes on products, while the effect of monetary policy is presented by the inflation rate and the official exchange rate. From the results, we find that in the long-run, the impact of government expenditures is positive, while the effect of taxes is negative on growth. Additionally, we find that the inflation rate is found to have little effect on GDP per capita but the impact of the exchange rate is insignificant. We conclude that fiscal policy is more powerful then monetary policy in promoting economic growth in Algeria.

Keywords: Economic growth, fiscal policy, monetary policy, VECM.

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Authors: Kristýna Pokorná, Petr Teplý

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This paper focuses on sovereign credit risk meaning a hot topic related to the current Eurozone crisis. In the light of the recent financial crisis, market perception of the creditworthiness of individual sovereigns has changed significantly. Before the outbreak of the financial crisis, market participants did not differentiate between credit risk born by individual states despite different levels of public indebtedness. In the proceeding of the financial crisis, the market participants became aware of the worsening fiscal situation in the European countries and started to discriminate among government issuers. Concerns about the increasing sovereign risk were reflected in surging sovereign risk premium. The main of this paper is to shed light on the characteristics of the sovereign risk with the special attention paid to the mutual relation between credit spread and the CDS premium as the main measures of the sovereign risk premium.

Keywords: cointegration, credit default swap, credit risk, credit spread, sovereign risk

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Authors: M. W. Siddiqi, M. Ilyas

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Availability and mobilization of revenue is the main essential with which an economy is managed and run. While planning or while making the budgets nations set revenue targets to be achieved. But later when the accounts are closed the actual collections of revenue through taxes or even the non-tax revenue collection would invariably be different as compared to the initial estimates and targets set to be achieved. This revenue-gap distorts the whole system and the economy disturbing all the major macroeconomic indicators. This study is aimed to find out short and long term impact of revenue gap on budget deficit, debt burden and economic growth on the economy of Pakistan. For this purpose the study uses autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration and error correction mechanism on three different models for the period 1980 to 2009. The empirical results show that revenue gap has a short and long run relationship with economic growth and budget deficit. However, revenue gap has no impact on debt burden.

Keywords: Revenue Gap, Economic Growth, Budget Deficit, Debt Burden

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Authors: S. Noor, M. W. Siddiqi

Abstract:

This study examines causal link between energy use and economic growth for five South Asian countries over period 1971-2006. Panel cointegration, ECM and FMOLS are applied for short and long run estimates. In short run unidirectional causality from per capita GDP to per capita energy consumption is found, but not vice versa. In long run one percent increase in per capita energy consumption tend to decrease 0.13 percent per capita GDP. i.e. Energy use discourage economic growth. This short and long run relationship indicate energy shortage crisis in South Asia due to increased energy use coupled with insufficient energy supply. Beside this long run estimated coefficient of error term suggest that short term adjustment to equilibrium are driven by adjustment back to long run equilibrium. Moreover, per capita energy consumption is responsive to adjustment back to equilibrium and it takes 59 years approximately. It specifies long run feedback between both variables.

Keywords: Energy consumption, Income, Panel co-integration, Causality.

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Authors: Rudra P. Pradhan

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This paper examines the Granger causal nexus between financial development and energy consumption in the group of 35 Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Countries over the period 1988-2012. The study uses two financial development indicators such as private sector credit and stock market capitalization and seven energy consumption indicators such as coal, oil, gas, electricity, hydro-electrical, nuclear and biomass. Using panel cointegration tests, the study finds that financial development and energy consumption are cointegrated, indicating the presence of a long-run relationship between the two. Using a panel vector error correction model (VECM), the study detects both bidirectional and unidirectional causality between financial development and energy consumption. The variation of this causality is due to the use of different proxies for both financial development and energy consumption. The policy implication of this study is that economic policies should recognize the differences in the financial development-energy consumption nexus in order to maintain sustainable development in the selected 35 FATF countries.

Keywords: Financial development, energy consumption, Panel VECM, FATF countries.

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Authors: Khaled Ramadan Elbeydi

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This study is carried out to provide an insight into the analysis of the impact of selected macro-economic variables on gross fixed capital formation in Libya using annual data over the period (1970-2010). The importance of this study comes from the ability to show the relative important factors that impact the Libyan gross fixed capital formation. This understanding would give indications to decision makers on which policy they must focus to stimulate the economy. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling process is employed to investigate the impact of the Gross Domestic Product, Monetary Base and Trade Openness on Gross Fixed Capital Formation in Libya. The results of this study reveal that there is an equilibrium relationship between capital formation and its determinants. The results also indicate that GDP and trade openness largely explain the pattern of capital formation in Libya. The findings and recommendations provide vital information relevant for policy formulation and implementation aimed to improve capital formation in Libya.

Keywords: ARDL, Bounds test, capital formation, Cointegration, Libya.

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Authors: Sagaren Pillay

Abstract:

In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.

A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.

Keywords: Forecasting, lagged, linear, relationship.

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Authors: Samra Bajwa, Muhammad W. Siddiqi

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The study investigates the causal link between trade openness and economic growth for four South Asian countries for period 1972-1985 and 1986-2007 to examine the scenario before and after the implementation of SAARC. Panel cointegration and FMOLS techniques are employed for short run and long run estimates. In 1972-85 short run unidirectional causality from GDP to openness is found whereas, in 1986-2007 there exists bi-directional causality between GDP and openness. The long run elasticity magnitude between GDP and openness contains negative sign in 1972-85 which shows that there exists long run negative relationship. While in time period 1986-2007 the elasticity magnitude has positive sign that indicates positive causation between GDP and openness. So it can be concluded that after the implementation of SAARC overall situation of selected countries got better. Also long run coefficient of error term suggests that short term equilibrium adjustments are driven by adjustment back to long run equilibrium.

Keywords: Causality, Economic Growth, Panel Co-integration, SAARC, Trade Openness.

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