Search results for: Climate change.

Authors: Lippong Tan, Yuenting Kwok, Ahbijit Date, Aliakbar Akbarzadeh

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A numerical investigation has carried out to understand the melting characteristics of phase change material (PCM) in a fin type latent heat storage with the addition of embedded aluminum spiral fillers. It is known that melting performance of PCM can be significantly improved by increasing the number of embedded metallic fins in the latent heat storage system but to certain values where only lead to small improvement in heat transfer rate. Hence, adding aluminum spiral fillers within the fin gap can be an option to improve heat transfer internally. This paper presents extensive computational visualizations on the PCM melting patterns of the proposed fin-spiral fillers configuration. The aim of this investigation is to understand the PCM-s melting behaviors by observing the natural convection currents movement and melting fronts formation. Fluent 6.3 simulation software was utilized in producing twodimensional visualizations of melting fractions, temperature distributions and flow fields to illustrate the melting process internally. The results show that adding aluminum spiral fillers in Fin type latent heat storage can promoted small but more active natural convection currents and improve melting of PCM.

Keywords: Phase change material, thermal enhancement, aluminum spiral fillers, fins

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Authors: S. Chumkiew, W. Srisang, K. Jaroensutasinee, M. Jaroensutasinee

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This work investigated the phenology of Parah tree (Elateriospermum tapos) using the General Purpose Atmosphere Plant Soil Simulator (GAPS model) to determine the amount of Plant Available Water (PAW) in the soil. We found the correlation between PAW and the timing of budburst and flower burst at Khao Nan National Park, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand. PAW from the GAPS model can be used as an indicator of soil water stress. The low amount of PAW may lead to leaf shedding in Parah trees.

Keywords: Basic GAPS, Parah (Elateriospermum tapos), Phenology, Climate, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand.

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Authors: ZerarkaHizia, Akchiche Mustapha, Prunier Florent

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Landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) has been an old slip since 1969; it was reactivated after an intense rainfall period in 2008 where it presents a complex shape and affects broad areas. The schist of AEH is more or less altered; the alteration is facilitated by the fracturing of the rock in its upper part, the presence of flowing water as well as physical and chemical mechanisms of desegregation in joint of altered schist. The factors following these instabilities are mostly related to the geological formation, the hydro-climatic conditions and the topography of the region. The city of AEH is located on the top of a steep slope at 50 km from the city of TiziOuzou (Algeria). AEH’s topographic monitoring of unstable slope allows analyzing the structure and the different deformation mechanism and the gradual change in the geometry, the direction of change of slip. It also allows us to delimit the area affected by the movement. This work aims to study the behavior of AEH landslide with topographic monitoring and to validate the results with numerical modeling of the slip site, when the hydraulic factors are identified as the most important factors for the reactivation of this landslide. With the help of the numerical code PLAXIS 2D and PlaxFlow, the precipitations and the steady state flow are modeled. To identify the mechanism of deformation and to predict the spread of the AEH landslide numerically, we used the equivalent deviatory strain, and these results were visualized by MATLAB software.

Keywords: Equivalent deviatory strain, landslide, numerical modeling, topographic monitoring.

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Authors: Valeriya Tyo, Serikbolat Yessengabulov

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Regions with extreme climate conditions such as Astana city require energy saving measures to increase energy performance of buildings which are responsible for more than 40% of total energy consumption. Identification of optimal building geometry is one of key factors to be considered. Architectural form of a building has impact on space heating and cooling energy use, however the interrelationship between the geometry and resultant energy use is not always readily apparent. This paper presents a comparative case study of two prototypical buildings with compact building shape to assess its impact on energy performance.

Keywords: Building geometry, energy efficiency, heat gain, heat loss.

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Authors: María L. Jalón, Feargal Brennan

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A non-stationary stochastic optimization methodology is applied to an OWC (oscillating water column) to find the design that maximizes the wave energy extraction. Different temporal cycles are considered to represent the long-term variability of the wave climate at the site in the optimization problem. The results of the non-stationary stochastic optimization problem are compared against those obtained by a stationary stochastic optimization problem. The comparative analysis reveals that the proposed non-stationary optimization provides designs with a better fit to reality. However, the stationarity assumption can be adequate when looking at averaged system response.

Keywords: Non-stationary stochastic optimization, oscillating water column, temporal variability, wave energy.

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Authors: Radouane Elbahjaoui, Hamid El Qarnia

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The present work aims to investigate numerically the thermal and flow characteristics of a rectangular latent heat storage unit (LHSU) during the melting process of a phase change material (PCM). The LHSU consists of a number of vertical and identical plates of PCM separated by rectangular channels. The melting process is initiated when the LHSU is heated by a heat transfer fluid (HTF: water) flowing in channels in a downward or upward direction. The proposed study is motivated by the need to optimize the thermal performance of the LHSU by accelerating the charging process. A mathematical model is developed and a fixed-grid enthalpy formulation is adopted for modeling the melting process coupling with convection-conduction heat transfer. The finite volume method was used for discretization. The obtained numerical results are compared with experimental, analytical and numerical ones found in the literature and reasonable agreement is obtained. Thereafter, the numerical investigations were carried out to highlight the effects of the HTF flow direction and the aspect ratio of the PCM slabs on the heat transfer characteristics and thermal performance enhancement of the LHSU.

Keywords: Phase change material, thermal energy storage, latent heat storage unit, melting.

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Authors: Sven Borén, Henrik Ny

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Ambitions within the EU for moving towards sustainable transport include major emission reductions for fossil fuel road vehicles, especially for buses, trucks, and cars. The electric driveline seems to be an attractive solution for such development. This study first applied the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development to compare sustainability effects of today’s fossil fuel vehicles with electric vehicles that have batteries or hydrogen fuel cells. The study then addressed a scenario were electric vehicles might be in majority in Europe by 2050. The methodology called Strategic Lifecycle Assessment was first used, were each life cycle phase was assessed for violations against sustainability principles. This indicates where further analysis could be done in order to quantify the magnitude of each violation, and later to create alternative strategies and actions that lead towards sustainability. A Life Cycle Assessment of combustion engine cars, plug-in hybrid cars, battery electric cars and hydrogen fuel cell cars was then conducted to compare and quantify environmental impacts. The authors found major violations of sustainability principles like use of fossil fuels, which contribute to the increase of emission related impacts such as climate change, acidification, eutrophication, ozone depletion, and particulate matters. Other violations were found, such as use of scarce materials for batteries and fuel cells, and also for most life cycle phases for all vehicles when using fossil fuel vehicles for mining, production and transport. Still, the studied current battery and hydrogen fuel cell cars have less severe violations than fossil fuel cars. The life cycle assessment revealed that fossil fuel cars have overall considerably higher environmental impacts compared to electric cars as long as the latter are powered by renewable electricity. By 2050, there will likely be even more sustainable alternatives than the studied electric vehicles when the EU electricity mix mainly should stem from renewable sources, batteries should be recycled, fuel cells should be a mature technology for use in vehicles (containing no scarce materials), and electric drivelines should have replaced combustion engines in other sectors. An uncertainty for fuel cells in 2050 is whether the production of hydrogen will have had time to switch to renewable resources. If so, that would contribute even more to a sustainable development. Except for being adopted in the GreenCharge roadmap, the authors suggest that the results can contribute to planning in the upcoming decades for a sustainable increase of EVs in Europe, and potentially serve as an inspiration for other smaller or larger regions. Further studies could map the environmental effects in LCA further, and include other road vehicles to get a more precise perception of how much they could affect sustainable development.

Keywords: Strategic, electric vehicles, fuel cell, LCA, sustainability.

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Authors: Jeffrey Chang, Barun Dasgupta

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E-business technologies, whereby business transactions are conducted remotely using the Internet, present unique opportunities and challenges for business. E-business technologies are applicable to a wide range of organizations and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are no exception. There is an established body of literature about e-business, looking at definitions, concepts, benefits and challenges. In general, however, the research focus has been on larger organizations, not SMEs. In an attempt to redress the balance of research, this paper looks at ebusiness technologies specifically from a small business perspective. It seeks to identify the possible barriers that SMEs might face when considering adoption of the e-business concept and practice as part of their business process change initiatives and implementation. To facilitate analysis of these barriers a conceptual framework has been developed which outlines the key conceptual and practical challenges of e-business implementation in SMEs. This is developed following a literature survey comprised of three categories: characteristics of SMEs, issues of IS/IT use in SMEs and general e-business adoption and implementation issues. The framework is then empirically assessed against 7 SMEs who have yet to implement e-business or whose e-business efforts have been unsatisfactory. Conclusions from the case studies can be used to verify the framework, and set parameters for further larger scale empirical investigation.

Keywords: Business process change, disruptive technologies, electronic business (e-Business), electronic commerce (e-Commerce), ICT adoption, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

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Authors: S. Sarumathi, N. Shanthi, S. Vidhya

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In the present world, predicting rainfall is considered to be an essential and also a challenging task. Normally, the climate and rainfall are presumed to have non-linear as well as intricate phenomena. For predicting accurate rainfall, we necessitate advanced computer modeling and simulation. When there is an enhanced understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation then it becomes enrichment to applications such as hydrologic, climatic and ecological. Conversely, there may be some kind of challenges occur in the community due to some application which results in the absence of consistent precipitation observation in remote and also emerging region. This survey paper provides a multifarious collection of methodologies which are epitomized by various researchers for predicting the rainfall. It also gives information about some technique to forecast rainfall, which is appropriate to all methods like numerical, traditional and statistical.

Keywords: Satellite Image, Segmentation, Feature Extraction, Classification, Clustering, Precipitation Estimation.

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Authors: A. S. Telang, P. P. Bedekar

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Flexible AC transmission system controllers play an important role in controlling the line power flow and in improving voltage profiles of the power system network. They can be used to increase the reliability and efficiency of transmission and distribution system. The modeling of these FACTS controllers in power flow calculations have become a challenging research problem. This paper presents a simple and systematic approach for a steady state power flow calculations of power system with STATCOM (Static Synchronous Compensator). It shows how systematically STATCOM can be implemented in conventional power flow calculations. The main contribution of this paper is to investigate this approach for two special conditions i.e. consideration of load increase pattern incorporating load change (active, reactive and both active and reactive) at all load buses simultaneously and the line contingencies under such load change. Such investigation proves to be relevant for determination of strategy for the optimal placement of STATCOM to enhance the voltage stability. The performance has been evaluated on many standard IEEE test systems. The results for standard IEEE-30 bus test system are presented here.

Keywords: Load flow analysis, Newton-Raphson (N-R) power flow, Flexible AC transmission system, FACTS, Static synchronous compensator, STATCOM, voltage profile.

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Authors: Mei-Se Chien, Chien-Chiang Lee, Sin-Jie Cai

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The main purpose of this paper is to investigate thelong-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics of international housing prices when macroeconomic variables change. We apply the Pedroni’s, panel cointegration, using the unbalanced panel data analysis of 33 countries over the period from 1980Q1 to 2013Q1, to examine the relationships among house prices and macroeconomic variables. Our empirical results of panel data cointegration tests support the existence of a cointegration among these macroeconomic variables and house prices. Besides, the empirical results of panel DOLS further present that a 1% increase in economic activity, long-term interest rates, and construction costs cause house prices to respectively change 2.16%, -0.04%, and 0.22% in the long run.Furthermore, the increasing economic activity and the construction cost would cause strongerimpacts on the house prices for lower income countries than higher income countries.The results lead to the conclusion that policy of house prices growth can be regarded as economic growth for lower income countries. Finally, in America region, the coefficient of economic activity is the highest, which displays that increasing economic activity causes a faster rise in house prices there than in other regions. There are some special cases whereby the coefficients of interest rates are significantly positive in America and Asia regions.

Keywords: House prices, Macroeconomic Variables, Panel cointegration, Dynamic OLS.

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Authors: J. Fenianos, C. Khater, D. Brouillet

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Ecological projects are often faced with reluctance from local communities hosting the project, especially when this project involves variation from preset ideas or classical practices. This paper aims at appreciating the contribution of environmental psychology through cognitive flexibility exercises to improve the acceptability of local communities in adopting more ecological rehabilitation scenarios. The study is based on a quarry site located in Bekaa- Lebanon. Four groups were considered with different levels of involvement, as follows: Group 1 is Training (T) – 50 hours of on-site training over 8 months, Group 2 is Awareness (A) – 2 hours of awareness raising session, Group 3 is Flexibility (F) – 2 hours of flexibility exercises and Group 4 is the Control (C). The results show that individuals in Group 3 (F) who followed flexibility sessions accept comparably the ecological rehabilitation option over the more classical one. This is also the case for the people in Group 1 (T) who followed a more time-demanding “on-site training”. Another experience was conducted on a second quarry site combining flexibility with awareness-raising. This research confirms that it is possible to reduce resistance to change thanks to a limited in-time intervention using cognitive flexibility. This methodological approach could be transferable to other environmental problems involving local communities and changes in preset perceptions.

Keywords: Acceptability, ecological restoration, environmental psychology, Lebanon, local communities, resistance to change.

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Authors: Z. Pavlík, J. Kočí, M. Pavlíková, R. Černý

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Combined experimental and computational analysis of hygrothermal performance of an interior thermal insulation system applied on a brick wall is presented in the paper. In the experimental part, the functionality of the insulation system is tested at simulated difference climate conditions using a semi-scale device. The measured temperature and relative humidity profiles are used for the calibration of computer code HEMOT that is finally applied for a long-term hygrothermal analysis of the investigated structure.

Keywords: Additional thermal insulation, hygrothermal analysis, semi-scale testing, long-term computational analysis

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Authors: Janice Haworth, Karamoko Camara, Marie-Therèse Dramou, Kokoly Haba, Daniel Léno, Augustin Mara, Adama Noël Oulari, Silafa Tolno, Noël Zoumanigui

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The traditional rhythms of the West African country of Guinea have played a centuries-long role in defining the different people groups that make up the country. Throughout their history, before and since colonization by the French, the different ethnicities have used their traditional music as a distinct part of their historical identities. That is starting to change. Guinea is an impoverished nation created in the early twentieth-century with little regard for the history and cultures of the people who were included. The traditional rhythms of the different people groups and their heritages have remained. Fifteen individual traditional Guinean rhythms were chosen to represent popular rhythms from the four geographical regions of Guinea. Each rhythm was traced back to its native village and video recorded on-site by as many different local performing groups as could be located. The cyclical patterns rhythms were transcribed via a circular, spatial design and then copied into a box notation system where sounds happening at the same time could be studied. These rhythms were analyzed for their consistency-overperformance in a Fundamental Rhythm Pattern analysis so rhythms could be compared for how they are changing through different performances. The analysis showed that the traditional rhythm performances of the Middle and Forest Guinea regions were the most cohesive and showed the least evidence of change between performances. The role of music in each of these regions is both limited and focused. The Coastal and High Guinea regions have much in common historically through their ethnic history and modern-day trade connections, but the rhythm performances seem to be less consistent and demonstrate more changes in how they are performed today. In each of these regions the role and usage of music is much freer and wide-spread. In spite of advances being made as a country, different ethnic groups still frequently only respond and participate (dance and sing) to the music of their native ethnicity. There is some evidence that this self-imposed musical barrier is beginning to change and evolve, partially through the development of better roads, more access to electricity and technology, the nationwide Ebola health crisis, and a growing self-identification as a unified nation.

Keywords: Cultural identity, Guinea, traditional rhythms, West Africa.

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Authors: Mahsa Karimpour, Martin Belusko, Ke Xing, Frank Bruno

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Traditionally, the embodied energy of design choices which reduce operational energy were assumed to have a negligible impact on the life cycle energy of buildings. However with new buildings having considerably lower operational energy, the significance of embodied energy increases. A life cycle assessment of a population of house designs was conducted in a mild and mixed climate zone. It was determined not only that embodied energy dominates life cycle energy, but that the impact on embodied of design choices was of equal significance to the impact on operational energy.

Keywords: Building life cycle energy, embodied energy, energy design measures, low energy buildings.

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Authors: Md Abdullah Al Faruque, Ram Balachandar

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Sudden change of bed condition is frequent in open channel flow. Change of bed condition affects the turbulence characteristics in both streamwise and wall-normal direction. Understanding the turbulence intensity in open channel flow is of vital importance to the modeling of sediment transport and resuspension, bed formation, entrainment, and the exchange of energy and momentum. A comprehensive study was carried out to understand the extent of the effect of Reynolds number and bed roughness on different turbulence characteristics in an open channel flow. Four different bed conditions (impervious smooth bed, impervious continuous rough bed, pervious rough sand bed, and impervious distributed roughness) and two different Reynolds numbers were adopted for this cause. The effect of bed roughness on different turbulence characteristics is seen to be prevalent for most of the flow depth. Effect of Reynolds number on different turbulence characteristics is also evident for flow over different bed, but the extent varies on bed condition. Although the same sand grain is used to create the different rough bed conditions, the difference in turbulence characteristics is an indication that specific geometry of the roughness has an influence on turbulence characteristics. Roughness increases the contribution of the extreme turbulent events which produces very large instantaneous Reynolds shear stress and can potentially influence the sediment transport, resuspension of pollutant from bed and alter the nutrient composition, which eventually affect the sustainability of benthic organisms.

Keywords: Open channel flow, Reynolds Number, roughness, turbulence.

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Authors: Hermenegilde Nkurunziza, Albrecht Gebhardt, Juergen Pilz

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The focus in this work is to assess which method allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi) when taking into account association between climatic factors and the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed better.

Keywords: Burundi, Forecasting, Malaria, Regressionmodel, State space model.

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Authors: Jelena Slugan, Ivica Ružić

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We are witnessing the rapid development of technologies that change the world around us. However, curriculums and teaching processes are often slow to adapt to the change; it takes time, money and expertise to implement technology in the classroom. Therefore, the University of Split, Croatia, partnered with local school Marko Marulić High School and created the project "Modern competence in modern high schools" as part of which five different curriculums for STEM areas were developed. One of the curriculums involves combining information technology with physics. The main idea was to teach students how to use different circuits and microcomputers to explore nature and physical phenomena. As a result, using electrical circuits, students are able to recreate in the classroom the phenomena that they observe every day in their environment. So far, high school students had very little opportunity to perform experiments independently, and especially, those physics experiment did not involve ICT. Therefore, this project has a great importance, because the students will finally get a chance to develop themselves in accordance to modern technologies. This paper presents some new methods of teaching physics that will help students to develop experimental skills through the study of deterministic nature of physical laws. Students will learn how to formulate hypotheses, model physical problems using the electronic circuits and evaluate their results. While doing that, they will also acquire useful problem solving skills.

Keywords: ICT in physics, curriculum, laboratory activities, STEM.

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Authors: Wan-Ting Liao, Angela K. Tzeng

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Empathy has been an important issue in psychology, education, as well as cognitive neuroscience. Empathy has two major components: cognitive and emotional. Cognitive component refers to the ability to understand others’ perspectives, thoughts, and actions, whereas emotional component refers to understand how others feel. Empathy can be induced, attitude can then be changed, and with enough attitude change, helping behavior can occur. This finding leads us to two questions: is attitude change really necessary for prosocial behavior? And, what roles cognitive and affective empathy play? For the second question, participants with different psychopathic personality (PP) traits are critical because high PP people were found to suffer only affective empathy deficit. Their cognitive empathy shows no significant difference from the control group. 132 college students voluntarily participated in the current three-stage study. Stage 1 was to collect basic information including Interpersonal Reactivity Index (IRI), Psychopathic Personality Inventory-Revised (PPI-R), Attitude Scale, Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), and demographic data. Stage two was for empathy induction with three controversial scenarios, namely domestic violence, depression with a suicide attempt, and an ex-offender. Participants read all three stories and then rewrite the stories by one of two perspectives (empathetic vs. objective). They would then complete the VAS and Attitude Scale one more time for their post-attitude and emotional status. Three IVs were introduced for data analysis: PP (High vs. Low), Responsibility (whether or not the character is responsible for what happened), and Perspective-taking (Empathic vs. Objective). Stage 3 was for the action. Participants were instructed to freely use the 17 tokens they received as donations. They were debriefed and interviewed at the end of the experiment. The major findings were people with higher empathy tend to take more action in helping. Attitude change is not necessary for prosocial behavior. The controversy of the scenarios and how familiar participants are towards target groups play very important roles. Finally, people with high PP tend to show more public prosocial behavior due to their affective empathy deficit. Pre-existing value and belief as well as recent dramatic social events seem to have a big impact and possibly reduce the effect of the independent variables (IV) in our paradigm.

Keywords: Affective empathy, attitude, cognitive empathy, prosocial behavior, psychopathic traits.

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Authors: Ivana Šalinović

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The term gender emerged in the second half of the last century and since then a growing body of research dealing with the topic demonstrates its importance. Primarily, the research and the theories that were addressing the topic were focused on stating the differences between the terms sex and gender, where sex refers to the biological aspect of a person, while gender refers to the socially ascribed roles, attitudes, behaviors, and etc., and on gender discrimination whose visible and invisible repercussions are harming society and one of the agents of change should be educators on all educational levels since they are emotionally sculpting their students, that is why considerable effort should be put into implementing education about this topic into the standard curriculum. Not only educators, but it is also necessary to change the mindset of the younger generations because they will be important agents in the further elimination of gender discrimination, thus causing societal changes. Therefore, it is very important to hear their voices and their experiences and for these reasons, this research has been done, to see what the students of the second year at a private college university Aspira in Croatia have gone through in their educational ladder. The hypothesis was that the findings would most certainly show a huge difference between female and male students’ experiences and effects of gender discrimination, but the results have actually shown a very mixed picture and the original hypothesis was somewhat disapproved. Instead of finding out that girls experienced a lot of gender discrimination, it turned out that it was the boys who believed that in their previous and current education, there was no equal time distribution between genders, they noticed that the language was not gender-sensitive, teaching aids were not adopted to the genders. They were also the ones that pointed out that the discipline path was not the same for everyone, and they were the ones that the teacher’s gender had more influence on and were also the ones that experienced more gender discrimination.

Keywords: Gender, discrimination, elementary school, high school.

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Authors: K. Atashgar

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When an assignable cause(s) manifests itself to a multivariate process and the process shifts to an out-of-control condition, a root-cause analysis should be initiated by quality engineers to identify and eliminate the assignable cause(s) affected the process. A root-cause analysis in a multivariate process is more complex compared to a univariate process. In the case of a process involved several correlated variables an effective root-cause analysis can be only experienced when it is possible to identify the required knowledge including the out-of-control condition, the change point, and the variable(s) responsible to the out-of-control condition, all simultaneously. Although literature addresses different schemes to monitor multivariate processes, one can find few scientific reports focused on all the required knowledge. To the best of the author’s knowledge this is the first time that a multi task model based on artificial neural network (ANN) is reported to monitor all the required knowledge at the same time for a multivariate process with more than two correlated quality characteristics. The performance of the proposed scheme is evaluated numerically when different step shifts affect the mean vector. Average run length is used to investigate the performance of the proposed multi task model. The simulated results indicate the multi task scheme performs all the required knowledge effectively.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Multivariate process, Statistical process control, Change point.

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Authors: Maria Giannopoulou

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Open urban public spaces comprise an important element for the development of social, cultural and economic activities of the population in the modern cities. These spaces are also considered regulators of the region-s climate conditions, providing better thermal, visual and auditory conditions which can be optimized by the application of appropriate strategies of bioclimatic design. The paper focuses on the analysis and evaluation of the recent unification of the open spaces in the centre of Xanthi, a medium – size city in northern Greece, from a bioclimatic perspective, as well as in the creation of suitable methodology. It is based both on qualitative observation of the interventions by fieldwork research and assessment and on quantitative analysis and modeling of the research area.

Keywords: Bioclimatic principles, Quantitative analysis, Sustainability, TownScope III, Urban open spaces

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Authors: Wint Thida Zaw, Thinn Thu Naing

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One of the essential sectors of Myanmar economy is agriculture which is sensitive to climate variation. The most important climatic element which impacts on agriculture sector is rainfall. Thus rainfall prediction becomes an important issue in agriculture country. Multi variables polynomial regression (MPR) provides an effective way to describe complex nonlinear input output relationships so that an outcome variable can be predicted from the other or others. In this paper, the modeling of monthly rainfall prediction over Myanmar is described in detail by applying the polynomial regression equation. The proposed model results are compared to the results produced by multiple linear regression model (MLR). Experiments indicate that the prediction model based on MPR has higher accuracy than using MLR.

Keywords: Polynomial Regression, Rainfall Forecasting, Statistical forecasting.

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Authors: Farid Ezanee Mohamed Ghazali

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The Malaysia Highway Authority (MHA) was established by the Government in 1980 for the purpose of designing, constructing and maintaining toll highways in Malaysia that include the North-South Expressway and the Penang Bridge, which were procured using the publicly-funded traditional procurement. However following a recession in the mid 80-s, the operations of these tolledhighways had been privatized to ensure that their operational services continue through private financing as a result of long-term concession agreement concurred between the Malaysian Government and private operators. The change in the contract strategy for highway projects in Malaysia would have a great tendency to dictate a significant risk exposure towards the key parties involved, particularly the Malaysian Government as project principal, unless operational risks are clearly identified and managed via appropriate mitigation measures prior to a contract signing. This research identifies potential operational risks that have a possibility to occur in highway projects in Malaysia from the perspective of public sector clients. Since this research focuses on the operational risks for highway projects in Malaysia, the initial results acquired from literature review on the operational risks of highway projects in some Asian countries are then justified by a number of key individuals from the MHA through interviews. As a result, among key operational risks that have possibility to occur in the highway projects in Malaysia include initial toll-tariff decided by the Government, traffic congestion, change of road network and overloaded freight transportation, which could cause damage to the road surface and hence affecting the operation of a particular highway.

Keywords: Malaysia, operating highway project, operational risk.

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Authors: Inês Vieira

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The migration-environment nexus has gained increased interest from the social research field over the last years. While straightly connected to human security issues, this theme has pervaded through the media to the public sphere. Therefore, it is important to observe how did the discussions over environmentally induced migrations develop from the scientific basis to the media attention, passing through some political voices, and in which ways might these messages be interpreted within the broader public discourses. To achieve this purpose, the analysis of the press entries between 2004 and 2010 in three of the main Portuguese newspapers shall be presented, specially reflecting upon the events, protagonists, topics, geographical attributions and terms/expressions used to define those who migrate due to environmental degradation or disasters.

Keywords: Climate refugees, environmental refugees, environmentally induced migrations, Portuguese written press

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Authors: Tausif A. Ishtiaque, Zarrin T. Tasin, Kazi S. Akter

Abstract:

Current trend of urban expansion, especially in the developing countries has caused significant changes in land cover, which is generating great concern due to its widespread environmental degradation. Energy consumption of the cities is also increasing with the aggravated heat island effect. Distribution of land surface temperature (LST) is one of the most significant climatic parameters affected by urban land cover change. Recent increasing trend of LST is causing elevated temperature profile of the built up area with less vegetative cover. Gradual change in land cover, especially decrease in vegetative cover is enhancing the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in the developing cities around the world. Increase in the amount of urban vegetation cover can be a useful solution for the reduction of UHI intensity. LST and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have widely been accepted as reliable indicators of UHI and vegetation abundance respectively. Chittagong, the second largest city of Bangladesh, has been a growth center due to rapid urbanization over the last several decades. This study assesses the intensity of UHI in Chittagong city by analyzing the relationship between LST and NDVI based on the type of land use/land cover (LULC) in the study area applying an integrated approach of Geographic Information System (GIS), remote sensing (RS), and regression analysis. Land cover map is prepared through an interactive supervised classification using remotely sensed data from Landsat ETM+ image along with NDVI differencing using ArcGIS. LST and NDVI values are extracted from the same image. The regression analysis between LST and NDVI indicates that within the study area, UHI is directly correlated with LST while negatively correlated with NDVI. It interprets that surface temperature reduces with increase in vegetation cover along with reduction in UHI intensity. Moreover, there are noticeable differences in the relationship between LST and NDVI based on the type of LULC. In other words, depending on the type of land usage, increase in vegetation cover has a varying impact on the UHI intensity. This analysis will contribute to the formulation of sustainable urban land use planning decisions as well as suggesting suitable actions for mitigation of UHI intensity within the study area.

Keywords: Land cover change, land surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, urban heat island.

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Authors: Liang Zhao, Jili Zhang, Chongquan Zhong

Abstract:

Energy consumption data, in particular those involving public buildings, are impacted by many factors: the building structure, climate/environmental parameters, construction, system operating condition, and user behavior patterns. Traditional methods for data analysis are insufficient. This paper delves into the data mining technology to determine its application in the analysis of building energy consumption data including energy consumption prediction, fault diagnosis, and optimal operation. Recent literature are reviewed and summarized, the problems faced by data mining technology in the area of energy consumption data analysis are enumerated, and research points for future studies are given.

Keywords: Data mining, data analysis, prediction, optimization, building operational performance.

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Authors: Mehmet Savsar

Abstract:

Reliability and availability of power stations are extremely important in order to achieve a required level of power generation. In particular, in the hot desert climate of Kuwait, reliable power generation is extremely important because of cooling requirements at temperatures exceeding 50-centigrade degrees. In this paper, a particular power plant, named Sabiya Power Plant, which has 8 steam turbines and 13 gas turbine stations, has been studied in detail; extensive data are collected; and availability of station units are determined. Furthermore, a simulation model is developed and used to analyze the effects of different maintenance policies on availability of these stations. The results show that significant improvements can be achieved in power plant availabilities if appropriate maintenance policies are implemented.

Keywords: Power plants, steam turbines, gas turbines, maintenance, availability, simulation.

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Authors: S. Yordchim, G. Anugkakul, T. Gibbs

Abstract:

The English competence of Thai people was examined in the context of knowledge of English in everyday life for Small and Medium Entrepreneurs (SMEs), and also integrated with Second language acquisition (SLA) students’ classroom. Second language acquisition was applied to the results of the questionnaires and interview forms. Levels of the need on English used for SME entrepreneurs in Thailand, satisfaction on joining the street classroom project were shown to be significantly high for some certain language functions and satisfaction. Finding suggests that the language functions on etiquette for professional use is essential and useful because lesson learned can be used in the real situation for their career. Implications for the climate of the street classroom are discussed.

Keywords: English classroom, second language acquisition, Small and Medium Entrepreneurs, Thai students.

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Authors: Mariann Veresne Somosi, Zoltan Nagy, Krisztina Varga

Abstract:

Innovation is the key element of economic development and a key factor in social processes. Technical innovations can be identified as prerequisites and causes of social change and cannot be created without the renewal of society. The study of social innovation can be characterised as one of the significant research areas of our day. The study’s aim is to identify the process of social innovation, which can be defined by input, transformation, and output factors. This approach divides the social innovation process into three parts: situation analysis, implementation, follow-up. The methods associated with each stage of the process are illustrated by the chronological line of social innovation. In this study, we have sought to present methodologies that support long- and short-term decision-making that is easy to apply, have different complementary content, and are well visualised for different user groups. When applying the methods, the reference objects are different: county, district, settlement, specific organisation. The solution proposed by the study supports the development of a methodological combination adapted to different situations. Having reviewed metric and conceptualisation issues, we wanted to develop a methodological combination along with a change management logic suitable for structured support to the generation of social innovation in the case of a locality or a specific organisation. In addition to a theoretical summary, in the second part of the study, we want to give a non-exhaustive picture of the two counties located in the north-eastern part of Hungary through specific analyses and case descriptions.

Keywords: Factors of social innovation, methodological combination, social innovation process, supporting decision-making.

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