Search results for: asymptotic estimate.

Authors: Yohei Saika, Tatsuya Uezu

Abstract:

We constructed a method of phase unwrapping for a typical wave-front by utilizing the maximizer of the posterior marginal (MPM) estimate corresponding to equilibrium statistical mechanics of the three-state Ising model on a square lattice on the basis of an analogy between statistical mechanics and Bayesian inference. We investigated the static properties of an MPM estimate from a phase diagram using Monte Carlo simulation for a typical wave-front with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry. The simulations clarified that the surface-consistency conditions were useful for extending the phase where the MPM estimate was successful in phase unwrapping with a high degree of accuracy and that introducing prior information into the MPM estimate also made it possible to extend the phase under the constraint of the surface-consistency conditions with a high degree of accuracy. We also found that the MPM estimate could be used to reconstruct the original wave-fronts more smoothly, if we appropriately tuned hyper-parameters corresponding to temperature to utilize fluctuations around the MAP solution. Also, from the viewpoint of statistical mechanics of the Q-Ising model, we found that the MPM estimate was regarded as a method for searching the ground state by utilizing thermal fluctuations under the constraint of the surface-consistency condition.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, maximizer of the posterior marginal estimate, phase unwrapping, Monte Carlo simulation, statistical mechanics

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Authors: Pei. P. Tan, Don. U.A. Galagedera, Elizabeth A.Maharaj

Abstract:

This paper examines predictability in stock return in developed and emergingmarkets by testing long memory in stock returns using wavelet approach. Wavelet-based maximum likelihood estimator of the fractional integration estimator is superior to the conventional Hurst exponent and Geweke and Porter-Hudak estimator in terms of asymptotic properties and mean squared error. We use 4-year moving windows to estimate the fractional integration parameter. Evidence suggests that stock return may not be predictable indeveloped countries of the Asia-Pacificregion. However, predictability of stock return insome developing countries in this region such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines may not be ruled out. Stock return in the Thailand stock market appears to be not predictable after the political crisis in 2008.

Keywords: Asia-Pacific stock market, long-memory, return predictability, wavelet

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Authors: Amir Badkoubeh, Guchuan Zhu

Abstract:

This paper addresses the problem of asymptotic tracking control of a linear parabolic partial differential equation with indomain point actuation. As the considered model is a non-standard partial differential equation, we firstly developed a map that allows transforming this problem into a standard boundary control problem to which existing infinite-dimensional system control methods can be applied. Then, a combination of energy multiplier and differential flatness methods is used to design an asymptotic tracking controller. This control scheme consists of stabilizing state-feedback derived from the energy multiplier method and feed-forward control based on the flatness property of the system. This approach represents a systematic procedure to design tracking control laws for a class of partial differential equations with in-domain point actuation. The applicability and system performance are assessed by simulation studies.

Keywords: Tracking Control, In-domain point actuation, PartialDifferential Equations.

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Authors: Nik Mohd Asri Nik Long, Koo Lee Feng, Zainidin K. Eshkuvatov, A. A. Khaldjigitov

Abstract:

This paper study the behavior of the solution at the crack edges for an elliptical crack with developing cusps, Ω in the plane elasticity subjected to shear loading. The problem of finding the resulting shear stress can be formulated as a hypersingular integral equation over Ω and it is then transformed into a similar equation over a circular region, D, using conformal mapping. An appropriate collocation points are chosen on the region D to reduce the hypersingular integral equation into a system of linear equations with (2N+1)(N+1) unknown coefficients, which will later be used in the determination of shear stress intensity factors and maximum shear stress intensity. Numerical solution for the considered problem are compared with the existing asymptotic solution, and displayed graphically. Our results give a very good agreement to the existing asymptotic solutions.

Keywords: Elliptical crack, stress intensity factors, hyper singular integral equation, shear loading, conformal mapping.

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Authors: Jin-Lung Guan, Jyh-Cherng Gu, Chun-Wei Huang, Hsin-Hung Chang

Abstract:

This investigation develops a revisable method for estimating the estimate value of equivalent 10 Hz voltage flicker (DV₁₀) of a DC Electric Arc Furnace (EAF). This study also discusses three 161kV DC EAFs by field measurement, with those results indicating that the estimated DV₁₀ value is significantly smaller than the survey value. The key point is that the conventional means of estimating DV₁₀ is inappropriate. There is a main cause as the assumed Q_max is too small.

Although DC EAF is regularly operated in a constant MVA mode, the reactive power variation in the Main Transformer (MT) is more significant than that in the Furnace Transformer (FT). A substantial difference exists between estimated maximum reactive power fluctuation (DQ_max) and the survey value from actual DC EAF operations. However, this study proposes a revisable method that can obtain a more accurate DV₁₀ estimate than the conventional method.

Keywords: Voltage Flicker, dc EAF, Estimate Value, DV10.

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Authors: Marwen Kermani, Anis Sakly, Faouzi M'sahli

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In this paper, we aim to investigate a new stability analysis for discrete-time switched linear systems based on the comparison, the overvaluing principle, the application of Borne-Gentina criterion and the Kotelyanski conditions. This stability conditions issued from vector norms correspond to a vector Lyapunov function. In fact, the switched system to be controlled will be represented in the Companion form. A comparison system relative to a regular vector norm is used in order to get the simple arrow form of the state matrix that yields to a suitable use of Borne-Gentina criterion for the establishment of sufficient conditions for global asymptotic stability. This proposed approach could be a constructive solution to the state and static output feedback stabilization problems.

Keywords: Discrete-time switched linear systems, Global asymptotic stability, Vector norms, Borne-Gentina criterion, Arrow form state matrix, Arbitrary switching, State feedback controller, Static output feedback controller.

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Authors: Adnan A. Y. Mustafa

Abstract:

In this paper we present a quick technique to measure the similarity between binary images. The technique is based on a probabilistic mapping approach and is fast because only a minute percentage of the image pixels need to be compared to measure the similarity, and not the whole image. We exploit the power of the Probabilistic Matching Model for Binary Images (PMMBI) to arrive at an estimate of the similarity. We show that the estimate is a good approximation of the actual value, and the quality of the estimate can be improved further with increased image mappings. Furthermore, the technique is image size invariant; the similarity between big images can be measured as fast as that for small images. Examples of trials conducted on real images are presented.

Keywords: Big images, binary images, similarity, matching.

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Authors: Wen Liu

Abstract:

With the rapid progress of modern cities, the railway construction must be developing quickly in China.As a typical high-density country, shopping center on the subway should be one important factor during the process of urban development. The paper discusses the influence of the layout of shopping center on the subway, and put it in the time and space’s axis of Shanghai urban development. We usethe digital technology to establish the database of relevant information. And then get the change role about shopping center on subway in Shanghaiby the Kernel density estimate.The result shows the development of shopping center on subway has a relationship with local economic strength, population size, policysupport, and city construction. And the suburbanization trend of shopping center would be increasingly significant.By this case research, we could see the Kernel density estimate is an efficient analysis method on the spatial layout. It could reveal the characters of layout form of shopping center on subway in essence. And it can also be applied to the other research of space form.

Keywords: Shanghai, Shopping center on the subway, Layout form, The Kernel density estimate.

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Authors: S. Areerachakul

Abstract:

Nowadays, the increase of human population every year results in increasing of water usage and demand. Saen Saep canal is important canal in Bangkok. The main objective of this study is using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to estimate the Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) on data from 11 sampling sites. The data is obtained from the Department of Drainage and Sewerage, Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, during 2007-2011. The twelve parameters of water quality are used as the input of the models. These water quality indices affect the COD. The experimental results indicate that the ANN model provides a high correlation coefficient (R=0.89).

Keywords: Artificial neural network, chemical oxygen demand, estimate, surface water.

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Authors: A. Naamane, M. Hasnaoui

Abstract:

Numerical modeling of fluid flows, whether compressible or incompressible, laminar or turbulent presents a considerable contribution in the scientific and industrial fields. However, the development of an approximate model of a supersonic flow requires the introduction of specific and more precise techniques and methods. For this purpose, the object of this paper is modeling a supersonic flow of inviscid fluid around a dihedral airfoil. Based on the thin airfoils theory and the non-dimensional stationary Steichen equation of a two-dimensional supersonic flow in isentropic evolution, we obtained a solution for the downstream velocity potential of the oblique shock at the second order of relative thickness that characterizes a perturbation parameter. This result has been dealt with by the asymptotic analysis and characteristics method. In order to validate our model, the results are discussed in comparison with theoretical and experimental results. Indeed, firstly, the comparison of the results of our model has shown that they are quantitatively acceptable compared to the existing theoretical results. Finally, an experimental study was conducted using the AF300 supersonic wind tunnel. In this experiment, we have considered the incident upstream Mach number over a symmetrical dihedral airfoil wing. The comparison of the different Mach number downstream results of our model with those of the existing theoretical data (relative margin between 0.07% and 4%) and with experimental results (concordance for a deflection angle between 1° and 11°) support the validation of our model with accuracy.

Keywords: Asymptotic modelling, dihedral airfoil, supersonic flow, supersonic wind tunnel.

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Authors: E. Praynlin, P. Latha

Abstract:

Software Effort Estimation is the process of estimating the effort required to develop software. By estimating the effort, the cost and schedule required to estimate the software can be determined. Accurate Estimate helps the developer to allocate the resource accordingly in order to avoid cost overrun and schedule overrun. Several methods are available in order to estimate the effort among which soft computing based method plays a prominent role. Software cost estimation deals with lot of uncertainty among all soft computing methods neural network is good in handling uncertainty. In this paper Radial Basis Function Network is compared with the back propagation network and the results are validated using six data sets and it is found that RBFN is best suitable to estimate the effort. The Results are validated using two tests the error test and the statistical test.

Keywords: Software cost estimation, Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN), Back propagation function network, Mean Magnitude of Relative Error (MMRE).

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Authors: Malika.D Kedir-Talha, Mohammed Mehenni

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To improve the characterization of blood flows, we propose a method which makes it possible to use the spectral analysis of the Doppler signals. Our calculation induces a reasonable approximation, the error made on estimated speed reflects the fact that speed depends on the flow conditions as well as on measurement parameters like the bore and the volume flow rate. The estimate of the Doppler signal frequency enables us to determine the maximum Doppler frequencie Fd max as well as the maximum flow speed. The results show that the difference between the estimated frequencies ( Fde ) and the Doppler frequencies ( Fd ) is small, this variation tends to zero for important θ angles and it is proportional to the diameter D. The description of the speed of friction and the coefficient of friction justify the error rate obtained.

Keywords: Doppler frequency, Doppler spectrum, estimate speed, permanent flow.

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Authors: Isti Surjandari, Riara Novita

Abstract:

Maintenance is one of the most important activities in the shipyard industry. However, sometimes it is not supported by adequate services from the shipyard, where inaccuracy in estimating the duration of the ship maintenance is still common. This makes estimation of ship maintenance duration is crucial. This study uses Data Mining approach, i.e., CART (Classification and Regression Tree) to estimate the duration of ship maintenance that is limited to dock works or which is known as dry docking. By using the volume of dock works as an input to estimate the maintenance duration, 4 classes of dry docking duration were obtained with different linear model and job criteria for each class. These linear models can then be used to estimate the duration of dry docking based on job criteria.

Keywords: Classification and regression tree (CART), data mining, dry docking, maintenance duration.

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Authors: Nazif Çalış, Murat Erişoğlu, Hamza Erol, Tayfun Servi

Abstract:

In the recent works related with mixture discriminant analysis (MDA), expectation and maximization (EM) algorithm is used to estimate parameters of Gaussian mixtures. But, initial values of EM algorithm affect the final parameters- estimates. Also, when EM algorithm is applied two times, for the same data set, it can be give different results for the estimate of parameters and this affect the classification accuracy of MDA. Forthcoming this problem, we use Self Organizing Mixture Network (SOMN) algorithm to estimate parameters of Gaussians mixtures in MDA that SOMN is more robust when random the initial values of the parameters are used [5]. We show effectiveness of this method on popular simulated waveform datasets and real glass data set.

Keywords: Self Organizing Mixture Network, MixtureDiscriminant Analysis, Waveform Datasets, Glass Identification, Mixture of Multivariate Normal Distributions

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino

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In this paper, a one-dimensional (1d) Parallel Elasto- Plastic Model (PEPM), able to simulate the uniaxial dynamic behavior of seismic isolators having a continuously decreasing tangent stiffness with increasing displacement, is presented. The parallel modeling concept is applied to discretize the continuously decreasing tangent stiffness function, thus allowing to simulate the dynamic behavior of seismic isolation bearings by putting linear elastic and nonlinear elastic-perfectly plastic elements in parallel. The mathematical model has been validated by comparing the experimental force-displacement hysteresis loops, obtained testing a helical wire rope isolator and a recycled rubber-fiber reinforced bearing, with those predicted numerically. Good agreement between the simulated and experimental results shows that the proposed model can be an effective numerical tool to predict the forcedisplacement relationship of seismic isolators within relatively large displacements. Compared to the widely used Bouc-Wen model, the proposed one allows to avoid the numerical solution of a first order ordinary nonlinear differential equation for each time step of a nonlinear time history analysis, thus reducing the computation effort, and requires the evaluation of only three model parameters from experimental tests, namely the initial tangent stiffness, the asymptotic tangent stiffness, and a parameter defining the transition from the initial to the asymptotic tangent stiffness.

Keywords: Base isolation, earthquake engineering, parallel elasto-plastic model, seismic isolators, softening hysteresis loops.

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou

Abstract:

It is widely recognised that the assets portfolio development is helping to enhance economic growth, productivity and competitiveness. While numerous studies and reports certify the positive effect of investments in large infrastructure investments on the local economy, still, the methodology to estimate the contribution in economic development is a challenging issue for researchers and economists. The key question is how to estimate those economic impacts in each economic system. This paper provides a compact and applicable methodological framework providing quantitative results in terms of the overall jobs and income generated into the project life cycle. According to a deterministic mathematical approach, the key variables and the modelling framework are presented. The numerical case study highlights key results for a new motorway project in Greece, which is experienced economic stress for many years, providing the opportunity for comparisons with similar cases.

Keywords: Quantitative modelling, economic impact; large transport infrastructure; economic assessment.

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Authors: Orose Rugchati, Kanita Thanacharoenchanaphas

Abstract:

This research studied the simulation of increased ambient ozone to estimate nutrient content and genetic changes in two Thai soybean cultivars (Chiang Mai 60 and Srisumrong 1). Ozone stress conditions affected proteins and lipids. It was found that proteins decreased, but lipids increased. Srisumrong 1 cultivars were more sensitive to ozone stress than Chiang Mai 60 cultivars. The effect of ozone stress conditions on plant phenotype and genotype was analyzed using the AFLP technique for the 2 Thai soybean cultivars (Chiang Mai 60 and Srisumrong 1).

Keywords: simulation, ambient ozone estimate, nutrient content, genetic changes , Thai soybean

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Authors: Sambit Prasad Kar, P.Palanisamy

Abstract:

In this paper a novel method for multiple one dimensional real valued sinusoidal signal frequency estimation in the presence of additive Gaussian noise is postulated. A computationally simple frequency estimation method with efficient statistical performance is attractive in many array signal processing applications. The prime focus of this paper is to combine the subspace-based technique and a simple peak search approach. This paper presents a variant of the Propagator Method (PM), where a collaborative approach of SUMWE and Propagator method is applied in order to estimate the multiple real valued sine wave frequencies. A new data model is proposed, which gives the dimension of the signal subspace is equal to the number of frequencies present in the observation. But, the signal subspace dimension is twice the number of frequencies in the conventional MUSIC method for estimating frequencies of real-valued sinusoidal signal. The statistical analysis of the proposed method is studied, and the explicit expression of asymptotic (large-sample) mean-squared-error (MSE) or variance of the estimation error is derived. The performance of the method is demonstrated, and the theoretical analysis is substantiated through numerical examples. The proposed method can achieve sustainable high estimation accuracy and frequency resolution at a lower SNR, which is verified by simulation by comparing with conventional MUSIC, ESPRIT and Propagator Method.

Keywords: Frequency estimation, peak search, subspace-based method without eigen decomposition, quadratic convex function.

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Authors: Mikko Elomaa, Aarne Halme

Abstract:

A novel method using bearing-only SLAM to estimate node positions of a localization network is proposed. A group of simple robots are used to estimate the position of each node. Each node has a unique ID, which it can communicate to a robot close by. Initially the node IDs and positions are unknown. A case example using RFID technology in the localization network is introduced.

Keywords: Localization network, Multi-robot, RFID, SLAM

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Authors: Nareelux Suwannobol, JintanaTapin, Khuanchanok Narachan

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to determine the accuracy to estimation fetal weight by Johnson-s method and compares it with actual birth weight. The sample group was 126 infants delivered in Dan KhunThot hospital from January March 2012. Fetal weight was estimated by measuring fundal height according to Johnson-s method. The information was collected by studying historical delivery records and then analyzed by using the statistics of frequency, percentage, mean, and standard deviation. Finally, the difference was analyzed by a paired t-test.The results showed had an average birth weight was 3093.57 ± 391.03 g (mean ± SD) and 3,455 ± 454.55 g average estimated fetal weight by Johnson-s method higher than average actual birth weight was 384.09 grams. When classifying the infants according to birth weight found that low birth weight (<2500 g) and the appropriate birth weight (2500-3999g) actual birth weight less than estimate fetal weight . But the high birth weight (> 4000 g) actual birth weight was more than estimated fetal weight. The difference was found between actual birth weight and estimation fetal weight of the minimum weight in high birth weight ( > 4000 g) , the appropriate birth weight (2500-3999g) and low birth weight (<2500 g) respectively. The rate of estimates fetal weight within 10% of actual birth weight was 35.7%. Actual birth weight were compared with the found that the difference is statistically significant (p <.000). Employing Johnson-s method to estimate fetal weight can estimate initial fetal weight before passing to special examinations, which may require excessive high cost. A variety of methods should be employed to estimate fetal weight more precisely, which will help plan care for mother-s and infant-s safety.

Keywords: Johnson's method, Fetal weight estimate, Delivery Room, Student nurse.

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Authors: Chen-Yu Wang, Tsung-Chien Chen, Ming-Hui Lee, Jen-Feng Huang

Abstract:

In this paper, the innovative intelligent fuzzy weighted input estimation method (FWIEM) can be applied to the inverse heat transfer conduction problem (IHCP) to estimate the unknown time-varying heat flux efficiently as presented. The feasibility of this method can be verified by adopting the temperature measurement experiment. We would like to focus attention on the heat flux estimation to three kinds of samples (Copper, Iron and Steel/AISI 304) with the same 3mm thickness. The temperature measurements are then regarded as the inputs into the FWIEM to estimate the heat flux. The experiment results show that the proposed algorithm can estimate the unknown time-varying heat flux on-line.

Keywords: Fuzzy Weighted Input Estimation Method, IHCP andHeat Flux.

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Authors: Y. Chaiko

Abstract:

It is important to provide possibility of so called “handover" for the mobile subscriber from GSM network to Wi-Fi network and back. To solve specified problem it is necessary to estimate connection time between base station and wireless access point. Difficulty to estimate this parameter is that it doesn-t described in specifications of the standard and, hence, no recommended value is given. In this paper, the analytical model is presented that allows the estimating connection time between base station and IEEE 802.11 access point.

Keywords: Access point, connection procedure, Wi-Fi network.

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Authors: Vai Kuong Sin, Chon Kit Chio

Abstract:

In this paper, the two-dimensional reversed stagnationpoint flow is solved by means of an anlytic approach. There are similarity solutions in case the similarity equation and the boundary condition are modified. Finite analytic method are applied to obtain the similarity velocity function.

Keywords: reversed stagnation-point flow, similarity solutions, asymptotic solution

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Authors: C.Ramesh, V.Vaidehi

Abstract:

Ultra-wide band (UWB) communication is one of the most promising technologies for high data rate wireless networks for short range applications. This paper proposes a blind channel estimation method namely IMM (Interactive Multiple Model) Based Kalman algorithm for UWB OFDM systems. IMM based Kalman filter is proposed to estimate frequency selective time varying channel. In the proposed method, two Kalman filters are concurrently estimate the channel parameters. The first Kalman filter namely Static Model Filter (SMF) gives accurate result when the user is static while the second Kalman filter namely the Dynamic Model Filter (DMF) gives accurate result when the receiver is in moving state. The static transition matrix in SMF is assumed as an Identity matrix where as in DMF, it is computed using Yule-Walker equations. The resultant filter estimate is computed as a weighted sum of individual filter estimates. The proposed method is compared with other existing channel estimation methods.

Keywords: Channel estimation, Kalman filter, UWB, Channel model, AR model

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Authors: Xiuyong Ding, Lan Shu

Abstract:

This paper addresses the stability of the switched systems with discrete and distributed time delays. By applying Lyapunov functional and function method, we show that, if the norm of system matrices Bi is small enough, the asymptotic stability is always achieved. Finally, a example is provided to verify technically feasibility and operability of the developed results.

Keywords: Switched system, stability, Lyapunov function, Lyapunov functional, delays.

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Authors: Xinli Zhang

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the nonlinear delay dynamic system xΔ(t) = p(t)f1(y(t)), yΔ(t) = −q(t)f2(x(t − τ )). We obtain some necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of nonoscillatory solutions with special asymptotic properties of the system. We generalize the known results in the literature. One example is given to illustrate the results.

Keywords: Dynamic system, oscillation, time scales, two-dimensional.

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Authors: Erna T. Herdiani, Maman A. Djauhari

Abstract:

In recent years, the use of vector variance as a measure of multivariate variability has received much attention in wide range of statistics. This paper deals with a more economic measure of multivariate variability, defined as vector variance minus all duplication elements. For high dimensional data, this will increase the computational efficiency almost 50 % compared to the original vector variance. Its sampling distribution will be investigated to make its applications possible.

Keywords: Asymptotic distribution, covariance matrix, likelihood ratio test, vector variance.

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Authors: Mussa Mahmoudi

Abstract:

For Seismic design, it is important to estimate, maximum lateral displacement (inelastic displacement) of the structures due to sever earthquakes for several reasons. Seismic design provisions estimate the maximum roof and storey drifts occurring in major earthquakes by amplifying the drifts of the structures obtained by elastic analysis subjected to seismic design load, with a coefficient named “displacement amplification factor" which is greater than one. Here, this coefficient depends on various parameters, such as ductility and overstrength factors. The present research aims to evaluate the value of the displacement amplification factor in seismic design codes and then tries to propose a value to estimate the maximum lateral structural displacement from sever earthquakes, without using non-linear analysis. In seismic codes, since the displacement amplification is related to “force reduction factor" hence; this aspect has been accepted in the current study. Meanwhile, two methodologies are applied to evaluate the value of displacement amplification factor and its relation with the force reduction factor. In the first methodology, which is applied for all structures, the ratio of displacement amplification and force reduction factors is determined directly. Whereas, in the second methodology that is applicable just for R/C moment resisting frame, the ratio is obtained by calculating both factors, separately. The acquired results of these methodologies are alike and estimate the ratio of two factors from 1 to 1.2. The results indicate that the ratio of the displacement amplification factor and the force reduction factor differs to those proposed by seismic provisions such as NEHRP, IBC and Iranian seismic code (standard no. 2800).

Keywords: Displacement amplification factor, Ductility factor, Force reduction factor, Maximum lateral displacement.

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Authors: H. Shareef, A. Mohamed, S. A. Khalid, Aziah Khamis

Abstract:

This paper presents application artificial intelligent (AI) techniques, namely artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy interface system (ANFIS), to estimate the real power transfer between generators and loads. Since these AI techniques adopt supervised learning, it first uses modified nodal equation method (MNE) to determine real power contribution from each generator to loads. Then the results of MNE method and load flow information are utilized to estimate the power transfer using AI techniques. The 25-bus equivalent system of south Malaysia is utilized as a test system to illustrate the effectiveness of both AI methods compared to that of the MNE method. The mean squared error of the estimate of ANN and ANFIS power transfer allocation methods are 1.19E-05 and 2.97E-05, respectively. Furthermore, when compared to MNE method, ANN and ANFIS methods computes generator contribution to loads within 20.99 and 39.37msec respectively whereas the MNE method took 360msec for the calculation of same real power transfer allocation. 

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, Power tracing, Artificial neural network, ANFIS, Power system deregulation.

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Authors: Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh, Zahra Mokhtari

Abstract:

Estimation time and cost of work completion in a project and follow up them during execution are contributors to success or fail of a project, and is very important for project management team. Delivering on time and within budgeted cost needs to well managing and controlling the projects. To dealing with complex task of controlling and modifying the baseline project schedule during execution, earned value management systems have been set up and widely used to measure and communicate the real physical progress of a project. But it often fails to predict the total duration of the project. In this paper data mining techniques is used predicting the total project duration in term of Time Estimate At Completion-EAC (t). For this purpose, we have used a project with 90 activities, it has updated day by day. Then, it is used regular indexes in literature and applied Earned Duration Method to calculate time estimate at completion and set these as input data for prediction and specifying the major parameters among them using Clem software. By using data mining, the effective parameters on EAC and the relationship between them could be extracted and it is very useful to manage a project with minimum delay risks. As we state, this could be a simple, safe and applicable method in prediction the completion time of a project during execution.

Keywords: Data Mining Techniques, Earned Duration Method, Earned Value, Estimate At Completion.

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