Search results for: Risk model

Authors: Andreia Guimarães Farnese, Mateus Fernandes Réu Urban, Leandro Procópio, Renato Zângaro, Regiane Albertini

Abstract:

Senescence changes include postural balance, inferring the risk of falls, and can lead to fractures, bedridden, and the risk of death. Physical activity, e.g., cardiovascular exercises, is notable for improving balance due to brain cell stimulations, but fine coordination exercises also elevate cell brain metabolism. This study aimed to verify whether the elderly person who performs fine motor activity has a balance similar to that of those who practice physical activity. The subjects were divided into three groups according to the activity practice: control group (CG) with seven participants for the sedentary individuals, motor coordination group (MCG) with six participants, and physical activity group (PAG) with eight participants. Data comparisons were from the Berg balance scale, Time up and Go test, and stabilometric analysis. Descriptive statistical and ANOVA analyses were performed for data analysis. The results reveal that including fine motor activities can improve the balance of the elderly and indirectly decrease the risk of falls.

Keywords: Balance, barapodometer, coordination, elderly.

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Authors: Prof. Chokri SLIM

Abstract:

A Novel fuzzy neural network combining with support vector learning mechanism called support-vector-based fuzzy neural networks (SVBFNN) is proposed. The SVBFNN combine the capability of minimizing the empirical risk (training error) and expected risk (testing error) of support vector learning in high dimensional data spaces and the efficient human-like reasoning of FNN.

Keywords: Neural network, fuzzy inference, machine learning, fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, support vector regression.

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Authors: Afshin Ahmadi Nadooshan, Ebrahim Shirani

Abstract:

In this paper, the two-dimensional stagger grid interface pressure (SGIP) model has been generalized and presented into three-dimensional form. For this purpose, various models of surface tension force for interfacial flows have been investigated and compared with each other. The VOF method has been used for tracking the interface. To show the ability of the SGIP model for three-dimensional flows in comparison with other models, pressure contours, maximum spurious velocities, norm spurious flow velocities and pressure jump error for motionless drop of liquid and bubble of gas are calculated using different models. It has been pointed out that SGIP model in comparison with the CSF, CSS and PCIL models produces the least maximum and norm spurious velocities. Additionally, the new model produces more accurate results in calculating the pressure jumps across the interface for motionless drop of liquid and bubble of gas which is generated in surface tension force.

Keywords: Volume-of-Fluid; SGIP model; CSS model; CSF model; PCIL model; surface tension force; spurious currents.

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Authors: Christian P. Crisostomo, Chrysline Margus N. Piñol

Abstract:

A zero-field ferromagnetic Ising model is utilized to simulate the propagation of infection in a population that assumes a square lattice structure. The rate of infection increases with temperature. The disease spreads faster among individuals with low J values. Such effect, however, diminishes at higher temperatures.

Keywords: Epidemiology, Ising model, lattice models

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Authors: P. Aragonés-Beltrán, F. Chaparro-González, J. P. Pastor Ferrando, M. García-Melón

Abstract:

In this paper the Analytic Network Process (ANP) is applied to the selection of photovoltaic (PV) solar power projects. These projects follow a long management and execution process from plant site selection to plant start-up. As a consequence, there are many risks of time delays and even of project stoppage. In the case study presented in this paper a top manager of an important Spanish company that operates in the power market has to decide on the best PV project (from four alternative projects) to invest based on risk minimization. The manager identified 50 project execution delay and/or stoppage risks. The influences among elements of the network (groups of risks and alternatives) were identified and analyzed using the ANP multicriteria decision analysis method. After analyzing the results the main conclusion is that the network model can manage all the information of the real-world problem and thus it is a decision analysis model recommended by the authors. The strengths and weaknesses ANP as a multicriteria decision analysis tool are also described in the paper.

Keywords: Multicriteria decision analysis, Analytic Network Process, Photovoltaic solar power projects.

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Authors: Abdullah E. Al-Mazrooei

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a new kind of the bilinear systems in the form of state space model. The evolution of this system depends on the product of state vector by its self. The well known Lotak Volterra and Lorenz models are special cases of this new model. We also present here a generalization of Kalman filter which is suitable to work with the new bilinear model. An application to real measurements is introduced to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Bilinear systems, state space model, Kalman filter.

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Authors: M. Izzat Md. Nor, N. Jaffar, N. Zaitulakma Md. Zain, N. Izyanti Mohd Suppian, S. Balakrishnan, G. Kandavello

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During the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, Malaysia has been focusing on building herd immunity by introducing vaccination programs into the community. Hospital Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) were developed to prevent inpatient transmission. In this study, we focus on the positivity rate of inpatient Person Under Surveillance (PUS) becoming COVID-19 positive and compare this to the national rate in order to see the outcomes of the patient who becomes COVID-19 positive in relation to their vaccination status. This is a retrospective observational study carried out from 1 January until 30 March 2022 in Institut Jantung Negara (IJN). There were 5,255 patients admitted during the time of this study. Pre-admission Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) swab was done for all patients. Patients with positive PCR on pre-admission screening were excluded. The patients who had exposure to COVID-19-positive staff or patients during hospitalization were defined as PUS and were quarantined and monitored for potential COVID-19 infection. Their frequency and risk of exposure (WHO definition) were recorded. On the final day of quarantine, a second PCR swab was performed on PUS patients who exhibit clinical deterioration, whether or not they exhibit COVID-19 symptoms. The severity of COVID-19 infection was defined as category 1-5A. All patients' vaccination status was recorded, and they were divided into three groups: fully immunised, partially immunised, and unvaccinated. We analysed the positivity rate of PUS patients becoming COVID-positive, outcomes, and correlation with the vaccination status. The ratio of positive inpatient PUS to the total inpatient PUS is 492; only 13 became positive, giving a positivity rate of 2.6%. Eight (62%) had multiple exposures. The majority, 8/13(72.7%), had a high-risk exposure, and the remaining 5 had medium-risk exposure. Four (30.8%) were boosted, 7(53.8%) were fully vaccinated, and 2(15.4%) were partial/unvaccinated. Eight patients were in categories 1-2, whilst 38% were in categories 3-5. Vaccination status did not correlate with COVID-19 Category (P = 0.641). One (7.7%) patient died due to COVID-19 complications and sepsis. Within the first quarter of 2022, our institution's positivity rate (2.6%) is significantly lower than the country's (14.4%). High-risk exposure and multiple exposures to positive COVID-19 cases increased the risk of PUS becoming COVID-19 positive despite their underlying vaccination status.

Keywords: COVID-19, boosted, high risk, Malaysia, quarantine, vaccination status.

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Authors: Hadi Farhadian, Homayoon Katibeh

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Groundwater inflow to the tunnels is one of the most important problems in tunneling operation. The objective of this study is the investigation of model dimension effects on tunnel inflow assessment in discontinuous rock masses using numerical modeling. In the numerical simulation, the model dimension has an important role in prediction of water inflow rate. When the model dimension is very small, due to low distance to the tunnel border, the model boundary conditions affect the estimated amount of groundwater flow into the tunnel and results show a very high inflow to tunnel. Hence, in this study, the two-dimensional universal distinct element code (UDEC) used and the impact of different model parameters, such as tunnel radius, joint spacing, horizontal and vertical model domain extent has been evaluated. Results show that the model domain extent is a function of the most significant parameters, which are tunnel radius and joint spacing.

Keywords: Water inflow, Tunnel, Discontinues rock, Numerical simulation.

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Authors: Karolina Patora

Abstract:

This article investigates liquidity risk management by banks, which has gained significant importance since the global financial crisis of 2008. The issue is of particular interest for countries like Poland, in which foreign capital plays a dominant role. Such an ownership structure poses certain risks to the local banking sector, which faces an increased probability of the withdrawal of funding or assets’ transfers abroad in case of a crisis. Both these factors can have a detrimental influence on the liquidity position of foreign-owned banks and hence negatively affect the financial stability of the whole banking sector. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of a dominating share of foreign investors in the Polish banking sector on the liquidity position of commercial banks. The study hypothesizes that the ownership structure of the Polish banking sector, in which there are banks predominantly controlled by foreign investors, does not pose a threat to the liquidity position of Polish banks. A supplementary research hypothesis is that the liquidity risk profile of foreign-owned banks differs from that of domestic banks. The sample consists of 14 foreign-owned banks and 5 domestic banks owned by local investors, which together constitute approximately 87% of the banking sector’s assets. The data covers the period of 2004–2014. The results of the regression models show no evidence of significant differences in terms of the dynamics of changes of the liquidity buffers between the foreign-owned and domestic banks, although the signs of the coefficients might suggest that the foreign-owned banks were decreasing the holdings of liquid assets at a slower pace over the examined period, compared to the domestic banks. However, no proof of the statistical significance of these findings has been found. The supplementary research hypothesis that the liquidity risk profile of foreign-controlled banks differs from that of domestic banks was rejected.

Keywords: Financial stability, foreign-owned banks, liquidity position, liquidity risk.

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Authors: Chimaobi V. Okolo, Afamefuna J. Ani, Ebere U. Okolo

Abstract:

This paper seeks to assess the implications of insurance to foreign direct investment inflow in Nigeria. Multiple linear regression technique and correlation matrix test were employed to measure the extent to which foreign direct investment was influenced. The result showed that insurance premium (IP), asset size of insurance industry (AS), and total investment of the industry (TI) impacted significantly and positively on foreign direct investment inflow in Nigeria. There should be effective risk transfer mechanism and financial intermediation, which gives the investor confidence in the risk management strength of the host country.

Keywords: Foreign direct investment, insurance.

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Authors: Peter Podbreznik, Božidar Potocnik

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A camera in the building site is exposed to different weather conditions. Differences between images of the same scene captured with the same camera arise also due to temperature variations. The influence of temperature changes on camera parameters were modelled and integrated into existing analytical camera model. Modified camera model enables quantitatively assessing the influence of temperature variations.

Keywords: camera calibration, analytical model, intrinsic parameters, extrinsic parameters, temperature variations.

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Authors: Muhamad Abduh, Jarita Duasa, Mohd. Azmi Omar

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Unlike its conventional counterpart, Islamic principles forbid Islamic banks to take any interest-related income and thus makes deposits from depositors as an important source of fund for its operational and financing. Consequently, the risk of deposit withdrawal by depositors is an important aspect that should be wellmanaged in Islamic banking. This paper aims to investigate factors that influence depositors- withdrawal behavior in Islamic banks, particularly in Malaysia, using the framework of theory of reasoned action. A total of 368 respondents from Klang valley are involved in the analysis. The paper finds that all the constructs variable i.e. normative beliefs, subjective norms, behavioral beliefs, and attitude towards behavior are perceived to be distinct by the respondents. In addition, the structural equation model is able to verify the structural relationships between subjective norms, attitude towards behavior and behavioral intention. Subjective norms gives more influence to depositors- decision on deposit withdrawal compared to attitude towards behavior.

Keywords: Islamic bank, structural equation model, theory of reasoned action, withdrawal behavior

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

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Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: Dam, failure, limit-state, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, Taylor.

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Authors: A. Amar

Abstract:

A new model namely, the crystal model, has been modified to calculate radius and density distribution of light nuclei up to 8Be. The crystal model has been modified according to solid state physics which uses the analogy between nucleon distribution and atoms distribution in the crystal. The model has analytical analysis to calculate the radius where the density distribution of light nuclei has been obtained from the analogy of crystal lattice. The distribution of nucleons over crystal has been discussed in general form. The equation used to calculate binding energy was taken from the solid-state model of repulsive and attractive force. The numbers of the protons were taken to control repulsive force where the atomic number was responsible for the attractive force. The parameter has been calculated from the crystal model was found to be proportional to the radius of the nucleus. The density distribution of light nuclei was taken as a summation of two clusters distribution as in 6Li=alpha+deuteron configuration. A test has been done on the data obtained for radius and density distribution using double folding for d+6,7Li with M3Y nucleon-nucleon interaction. Good agreement has been obtained for both radius and density distribution of light nuclei. The model failed to calculate the radius of 9Be, so modifications should be done to overcome discrepancy.

Keywords: nuclear lattice, crystal model, light nuclei, nuclear density distributions

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Authors: Evgeniy Burlutskiy

Abstract:

The paper presents a one-dimensional transient mathematical model of compressible thermal multi-component gas mixture flows in pipes. The set of the mass, momentum and enthalpy conservation equations for gas phase is solved. Thermo-physical properties of multi-component gas mixture are calculated by solving the Equation of State (EOS) model. The Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK-EOS) model is chosen. Gas mixture viscosity is calculated on the basis of the Lee-Gonzales-Eakin (LGE) correlation. Numerical analysis on rapid decompression in conventional dry gases is performed by using the proposed mathematical model. The model is validated on measured values of the decompression wave speed in dry natural gas mixtures. All predictions show excellent agreement with the experimental data at high and low pressure. The presented model predicts the decompression in dry natural gas mixtures much better than GASDECOM and OLGA codes, which are the most frequently-used codes in oil and gas pipeline transport service.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Rapid Gas Decompression

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Authors: Chie Urawa

Abstract:

Cautionary statements or disclaimers in corporate annual reports need to be carefully designed because clear cautionary statements may protect a company in the case of legal disputes and may undermine positive impressions. This study compares the language of cautionary statements using two corpora, Sony’s cautionary statement corpus (S-corpus) and Panasonic’s cautionary statement corpus (P-corpus), illustrating the differences and similarities in relation to the use of meaningful cautionary statements and critically analyzing why practitioners use the way. The findings describe the distinct differences between the two companies in the presentation of the risk factors and the way how they make the statements. The word ability is used more for legal protection in S-corpus whereas the word possibility is used more to convey a better impression in P-corpus. The main similarities are identified in the use of lexical words and pronouns, and almost the same wordings for eight years. The findings show how they make the statements unique to the company in the presentation of risk factors, and the characteristics of specific genre of professional communication. Important implications of this study are that more comprehensive approach can be applied in other contexts, and be used by companies to reflect upon their cautionary statements.

Keywords: Cautionary statements, corporate annual reports, corpus, risk factors.

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Authors: Afshari H., Khosravi Sh.

Abstract:

Nowadays there are more than thirty maturity models in different knowledge areas. Maturity model is an area of interest that contributes organizations to find out where they are in a specific knowledge area and how to improve it. As Information Resource Management (IRM) is the concept that information is a major corporate resource and must be managed using the same basic principles used to manage other assets, assessment of the current IRM status and reveal the improvement points can play a critical role in developing an appropriate information structure in organizations. In this paper we proposed a framework for information resource management maturity model (IRM3) that includes ten best practices for the maturity assessment of the organizations' IRM.

Keywords: Information resource management (IRM), information resource management maturity model (IRM3), maturity model, best practice.

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Authors: Chenxi Yang, Zhouhong Li

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This paper is concerned with an epidemic model with delay. By using the comparison theorem of the differential equation and constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional, Some sufficient conditions which guarantee the permeance and existence of a unique globally attractive positive almost periodic solution of the model are obtain. Finally, an example is employed to illustrate our result.

Keywords: Permanence, Almost periodic solution, Epidemic model, Delay, Feedback control.

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Authors: Tae in Seol, Sun-Tae Chung, Seongwon Cho

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Realistic 3D face model is desired in various applications such as face recognition, games, avatars, animations, and etc. Construction of 3D face model is composed of 1) building a face shape model and 2) rendering the face shape model. Thus, building a realistic 3D face shape model is an essential step for realistic 3D face model. Recently, 3D morphable model is successfully introduced to deal with the various human face shapes. 3D dense correspondence problem should be precedently resolved for constructing a realistic 3D dense morphable face shape model. Several approaches to 3D dense correspondence problem in 3D face modeling have been proposed previously, and among them optical flow based algorithms and TPS (Thin Plate Spline) based algorithms are representative. Optical flow based algorithms require texture information of faces, which is sensitive to variation of illumination. In TPS based algorithms proposed so far, TPS process is performed on the 2D projection representation in cylindrical coordinates of the 3D face data, not directly on the 3D face data and thus errors due to distortion in data during 2D TPS process may be inevitable. In this paper, we propose a new 3D dense correspondence algorithm for 3D dense morphable face shape modeling. The proposed algorithm does not need texture information and applies TPS directly on 3D face data. Through construction procedures, it is observed that the proposed algorithm constructs realistic 3D face morphable model reliably and fast.

Keywords: 3D Dense Correspondence, 3D Morphable Face Shape Model, 3D Face Modeling.

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Authors: Huan Xiong, Ming Chen

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In order to research Internet quantificationally and better model the performance of network, this paper proposes a novel AS level network performance model (MNPM), it takes autonomous system (AS) as basic modeling unit, measures E2E performance between any two outdegrees of an AS and organizes measurement results into matrix form which called performance matrix (PM). Inter-AS performance calculation is defined according to performance information stored in PM. Simulation has been implemented to verify the correctness of MNPM and a practical application of MNPM (network congestion detection) is given.

Keywords: AS, network performance, model, metric, congestion.

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Authors: Shilpi Lavania, Deepak Nagaria

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A mixed method for model order reduction is presented in this paper. The denominator polynomial is derived by matching both Markov parameters and time moments, whereas numerator polynomial derivation and error minimization is done using Genetic Algorithm. The efficiency of the proposed method can be investigated in terms of closeness of the response of reduced order model with respect to that of higher order original model and a comparison of the integral square error as well.

Keywords: Model Order Reduction (MOR), control theory, Markov parameters, time moments, genetic algorithm, Single Input Single Output (SISO).

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Authors: Siamak Feizi, Gunvor Baardvik

Abstract:

Soil erosion has special consequences for landfills that are more serious than those found at conventional construction sites. Different potential heads between two sides of a landfill and the subsequent movement of water through pores within the soil body could trigger the soil erosion and construction instability. Such condition was encountered in a landfill project in the southern part of Norway. To check the risk of internal erosion due changes in the groundwater level (because of seasonal flooding in the river), a series of numerical simulations by means of Geo-Seep software were conducted. Output of this study provides a total picture of the landfill stability, possibilities of erosions and necessary measures to prevent or reduce the risk for the landfill operator.

Keywords: Erosion, seepage, landfill, stability.

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Authors: Bin Wang, Hengyu Ji, Zhifeng Ye

Abstract:

Fuel Metering Unit (FMU) in fuel system of an aeroengine sometimes has direct influence on the engine performance, which is neglected for the sake of easy access to mathematical model of the engine in most cases. In order to verify the influence of FMU on an engine model, this paper presents a co-simulation of a stepping motor driven FMU (digital FMU) in a turboshaft aeroengine, using AMESim and MATLAB to obtain the steady and dynamic characteristics of the FMU. For this method, mechanical and hydraulic section of the unit is modeled through AMESim, while the stepping motor is mathematically modeled through MATLAB/Simulink. Combining these two sub-models yields an AMESim/MATLAB co-model of the FMU. A simplified component level model for the turboshaft engine is established and connected with the FMU model. Simulation results on the full model show that the engine model considering FMU characteristics describes the engine more precisely especially in its transition state. An FMU dynamics will cut down the rotation speed of the high pressure shaft and the inlet pressure of the combustor during the step response. The work in this paper reveals the impact of FMU on engine operation characteristics and provides a reference to an engine model for ground tests.

Keywords: Fuel metering unit, stepping motor, AMESim/MATLAB, full digital simulation.

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Authors: Evgeniy Burlutskiy

Abstract:

The paper presents a one-dimensional transient mathematical model of compressible non-isothermal multicomponent fluid mixture flow in a pipe. The set of the mass, momentum and enthalpy conservation equations for gas phase is solved in the model. Thermo-physical properties of multi-component gas mixture are calculated by solving the Equation of State (EOS) model. The Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK-EOS) model is chosen. Gas mixture viscosity is calculated on the basis of the Lee-Gonzales- Eakin (LGE) correlation. Numerical analysis of rapid gas decompression process in rich and base natural gases is made on the basis of the proposed mathematical model. The model is successfully validated on the experimental data [1]. The proposed mathematical model shows a very good agreement with the experimental data [1] in a wide range of pressure values and predicts the decompression in rich and base gas mixtures much better than analytical and mathematical models, which are available from the open source literature.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Multi-Component gas mixture flow, Rapid Gas Decompression

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Authors: Amirhossein Chambari, Seyed Habib Rahmaty, Vahid Hajipour, Aida Karimi

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This paper proposes a bi-objective model for the facility location problem under a congestion system. The idea of the model is motivated by applications of locating servers in bank automated teller machines (ATMS), communication networks, and so on. This model can be specifically considered for situations in which fixed service facilities are congested by stochastic demand within queueing framework. We formulate this model with two perspectives simultaneously: (i) customers and (ii) service provider. The objectives of the model are to minimize (i) the total expected travelling and waiting time and (ii) the average facility idle-time. This model represents a mixed-integer nonlinear programming problem which belongs to the class of NP-hard problems. In addition, to solve the model, two metaheuristic algorithms including nondominated sorting genetic algorithms (NSGA-II) and non-dominated ranking genetic algorithms (NRGA) are proposed. Besides, to evaluate the performance of the two algorithms some numerical examples are produced and analyzed with some metrics to determine which algorithm works better.

Keywords: Queuing, Location, Bi-objective, NSGA-II, NRGA

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Authors: A.H. Akhaveissy

Abstract:

Nonlinear finite element method and Serendipity eight nodes element are used for determining of ground surface settlement due to tunneling. Linear element with elastic behavior is used for modeling of lining. Modified Generalized plasticity model with nonassociated flow rule is applied for analysis of a tunnel in Sao Paulo – Brazil. The tunnel had analyzed by Lades- model with 16 parameters. In this work modified Generalized Plasticity is used with 10 parameters, also Mohr-Coulomb model is used to analysis the tunnel. The results show good agreement with observed results of field data by modified Generalized Plasticity model than other models. The obtained result by Mohr-Coulomb model shows less settlement than other model due to excavation.

Keywords: Non-associated flow rule, Generalized plasticity, tunnel excavation, Excavation method.

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Authors: Xing Li, Chengqing Zong

Abstract:

This paper presents an effective framework for Chinesesyntactic parsing, which includes two parts. The first one is a parsing framework, which is based on an improved bottom-up chart parsingalgorithm, and integrates the idea of the beam search strategy of N bestalgorithm and heuristic function of A* algorithm for pruning, then get multiple parsing trees. The second is a novel evaluation model, which integrates contextual and partial lexical information into traditional PCFG model and defines a new score function. Using this model, the tree with the highest score is found out as the best parsing tree. Finally,the contrasting experiment results are given. Keywords?syntactic parsing, PCFG, pruning, evaluation model.

Keywords: syntactic parsing, PCFG, pruning, evaluation model.

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Authors: J. Ramírez A., A. Rubiano F.

Abstract:

In this paper the direct kinematic model of a multiple applications three degrees of freedom industrial manipulator, was developed using the homogeneous transformation matrices and the Denavit - Hartenberg parameters, likewise the inverse kinematic model was developed using the same method, verifying that in the workload border the inverse kinematic presents considerable errors, therefore a genetic algorithm was implemented to optimize the model improving greatly the efficiency of the model.

Keywords: Direct Kinematic, Genetic Algorithm, InverseKinematic, Optimization, Robot Manipulator

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.

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Authors: C. E. Madubueze, S. C. Madubueze, S. Ajama

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Cholera is a disease that is predominately common in developing countries due to poor sanitation and overcrowding population. In this paper, a deterministic model for the dynamics of cholera is developed and control measures such as health educational message, therapeutic treatment, and vaccination are incorporated in the model. The effective reproduction number is computed in terms of the model parameters. The existence and stability of the equilibrium states, disease free and endemic equilibrium states are established and showed to be locally and globally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1 and R0 > 1 respectively. The existence of backward bifurcation of the model is investigated. Furthermore, numerical simulation of the model developed is carried out to show the impact of the control measures and the result indicates that combined control measures will help to reduce the spread of cholera in the population.

Keywords: Backward bifurcation, cholera, equilibrium, dynamics, stability.

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