Search results for: Power System Reliability

Authors: Hei-Chia Wang, Wei-Pin Chiu

Abstract:

As research performance in academia is treated as one of indices for national competency, many countries devote much attention and resources to increasing their research performance. Understand the research trend is the basic step to improve the research performance. The goal of this research is to design an analysis system to evaluate research trends from analyzing data from different countries. In this paper, information system researches in Taiwan and other countries, including Asian countries and prominent countries represented by the Group of Eight (G8) is used as example. Our research found the trends are varied in different countries. Our research suggested that Taiwan-s scholars can pay more attention to interdisciplinary applications and try to increase their collaboration with other countries, in order to increase Taiwan's competency in the area of information science.

Keywords: Bibliometric analysis, research trend, scientometric analysis.

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Authors: Seungkyum Kim, Yongtae Park

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Recently, business environment and customer needs have become rapidly changing, hence it is very difficult to fulfill sophisticated customer needs by product or service innovation only. In practice, to cope with this problem, various manufacturing companies have developed services to combine with their products. Along with this, many academic studies on PSS (Product Service System) which is the integrated system of products and services have been conducted from the viewpoint of manufacturers. On the other hand, service providers are also attempting to develop service-supporting products to increase their service competitiveness and provide differentiated value. However, there is a lack of research based on the service-centric point of view. Accordingly, this paper proposes a concept generation method for service-supporting product development from the service-centric point of view. This method is designed to be executed in five consecutive steps: situation analysis, problem definition, problem resolution, solution evaluation, and concept generation. In the proposed approach, some tools of TRIZ (Theory of Solving Inventive Problem) such as ISQ (Innovative Situation Questionnaire) and 40 inventive principles are employed in order to define problems of the current services and solve them by generating service-supporting product concepts. This research contributes to the development of service-supporting products and service-centric PSSs.

Keywords: TRIZ, PSS (Product Service System), service-supporting product, concept generation

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Authors: A. Ashfak, A. Saheed, K. K. Abdul Rasheed, J. Abdul Jaleel

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This paper presents the design, fabrication and evaluation of magneto-rheological damper. Semi-active control devices have received significant attention in recent years because they offer the adaptability of active control devices without requiring the associated large power sources. Magneto-Rheological (MR) dampers are semi- active control devices that use MR fluids to produce controllable dampers. They potentially offer highly reliable operation and can be viewed as fail-safe in that they become passive dampers if the control hardware malfunction. The advantage of MR dampers over conventional dampers are that they are simple in construction, compromise between high frequency isolation and natural frequency isolation, they offer semi-active control, use very little power, have very quick response, has few moving parts, have a relax tolerances and direct interfacing with electronics. Magneto- Rheological (MR) fluids are Controllable fluids belonging to the class of active materials that have the unique ability to change dynamic yield stress when acted upon by an electric or magnetic field, while maintaining viscosity relatively constant. This property can be utilized in MR damper where the damping force is changed by changing the rheological properties of the fluid magnetically. MR fluids have a dynamic yield stress over Electro-Rheological fluids (ER) and a broader operational temperature range. The objective of this papert was to study the application of an MR damper to vibration control, design the vibration damper using MR fluids, test and evaluate its performance. In this paper the Rheology and the theory behind MR fluids and their use on vibration control were studied. Then a MR vibration damper suitable for vehicle suspension was designed and fabricated using the MR fluid. The MR damper was tested using a dynamic test rig and the results were obtained in the form of force vs velocity and the force vs displacement plots. The results were encouraging and greatly inspire further research on the topic.

Keywords: Magneto-rheological Fluid, MR Damper, Semiactive controller, Electro-rheological fluid.

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Authors: Cuneyt Yucelbas, Seral Ozsen, Sule Yucelbas, Gulay Tezel

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Due to the fact that there exist only a small number of complex systems in artificial immune system (AIS) that work out nonlinear problems, nonlinear AIS approaches, among the well-known solution techniques, need to be developed. Gaussian function is usually used as similarity estimation in classification problems and pattern recognition. In this study, diagnosis of breast cancer, the second type of the most widespread cancer in women, was performed with different distance calculation functions that euclidean, gaussian and gaussian-euclidean hybrid function in the clonal selection model of classical AIS on Wisconsin Breast Cancer Dataset (WBCD), which was taken from the University of California, Irvine Machine-Learning Repository. We used 3-fold cross validation method to train and test the dataset. According to the results, the maximum test classification accuracy was reported as 97.35% by using of gaussian-euclidean hybrid function for fold-3. Also, mean of test classification accuracies for all of functions were obtained as 94.78%, 94.45% and 95.31% with use of euclidean, gaussian and gaussian-euclidean, respectively. With these results, gaussian-euclidean hybrid function seems to be a potential distance calculation method, and it may be considered as an alternative distance calculation method for hard nonlinear classification problems.

Keywords: Artificial Immune System, Breast Cancer Diagnosis, Euclidean Function, Gaussian Function.

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Authors: Seung-Jun Yu, Yeong-Seop Ahn, Young-Min Ko, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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In order to achieve high data rate and increase the spectral efficiency, multiple input multiple output (MIMO) system has been proposed. However, multiple antennas are limited by size and cost. Therefore, recently developed cooperative diversity scheme, which profits the transmit diversity only with the existing hardware by constituting a virtual antenna array, can be a solution. However, most of the introduced cooperative techniques have a common fault of decreased transmission rate because the destination should receive the decodable compositions of symbols from the source and the relay. In this paper, we propose a cooperative cyclic delay diversity (CDD) scheme that use hierarchical modulation. This scheme is free from the rate loss and allows seamless cooperative communication.

Keywords: MIMO, Cooperative communication, CDD, Hierarchical modulation.

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Authors: Langroudi B., Salehi E., Keshani S., Baghersad M.

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Transportation is of great importance in the current life of human beings. The transportation system plays many roles, from economical development to after-catastrophe aids such as rescue operation in the first hours and days after an earthquake. In after earthquakes response phase, transportation system acts as a basis for ground operations including rescue and relief operation, food providing for victims and etc. It is obvious that partial or complete obstruction of this system results in the stop of these operations. Bridges are one of the most important elements of transportation network. Failure of a bridge, in the most optimistic case, cuts the relation between two regions and in more developed countries, cuts the relation of numerous regions. In this paper, to evaluate the vulnerability and estimate the damage level of Tehran bridges, HAZUS method, developed by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) with the aid of National Institute of Building Science (NIBS), is used for the first time in Iran. In this method, to evaluate the collapse probability, fragility curves are used. Iran is located on seismic belt and thus, it is vulnerable to earthquakes. Thus, the study of the probability of bridge collapses, as an important part of transportation system, during earthquakes is of great importance. The purpose of this study is to provide fragility curves for Gisha Bridge, one of the longest steel bridges in Tehran, as an important lifeline element. Besides, the damage probability for this bridge during a specific earthquake, introduced as scenario earthquakes, is calculated. The fragility curves show that for the considered scenario, the probability of occurrence of complete collapse for the bridge is 8.6%.

Keywords: Bridge, Damage evaluation, Fragility curve, Lifelines, Seismic vulnerability.

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Authors: H. Ait Abderrahmane, M. Fayed, H. D. Ng, G. H. Vatistas

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The present paper expands details and confirms the transition mechanism between two subsequent polygonal patterns of the hollow-core vortex. Using power spectral analysis, we confirm in this work that the transition from any N-gon to (N+1)-gon pattern observed within a hollow-core vortex of shallow rotating flows occurs in two steps. The regime was quasi-periodic before the frequencies lock (synchronization). The ratios of locking frequencies were found to be equal to (N-1)/N.

Keywords: Patterns, quasi-periodic, swirling, synchronization, transition.

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Authors: E. Farshidi, N. Ahmadpoor

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In this paper, a alternative structure method for continuous time sigma delta modulator is presented. In this modulator for implementation of integrators in loop filter second generation current conveyors are employed. The modulator is designed in CMOS technology and features low power consumption (<2.8mW), low supply voltage (±1.65), wide dynamic range (>65db), and with 180khZ bandwidth. Simulation results confirm that this design is suitable for data converters.

Keywords: Current Conveyor, continuous, sigma delta, MOS, modulator

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Authors: Imane El Karaoui, Mohammed Maaroufi, Hamid Chaikhy

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Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) is one of the most reliable wind generator. Major problem in wind power generation is to generate Sinusoidal signal with very low THD on variable speed caused by inverter two levels used. This paper presents a multi-level inverter whose objective is to reduce the THD and the dimensions of the output filter. This work proposes a three-level NPC-type inverter, the results simulation are presented demonstrating the efficiency of the proposed inverter.

Keywords: DFIG, multilevel inverter, NPC inverter , THD, Induction machine.

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Authors: Walaa Khalaf, Calogero Pace, Manlio Gaudioso

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We present an Electronic Nose (ENose), which is aimed at identifying the presence of one out of two gases, possibly detecting the presence of a mixture of the two. Estimation of the concentrations of the components is also performed for a volatile organic compound (VOC) constituted by methanol and acetone, for the ranges 40-400 and 22-220 ppm (parts-per-million), respectively. Our system contains 8 sensors, 5 of them being gas sensors (of the class TGS from FIGARO USA, INC., whose sensing element is a tin dioxide (SnO2) semiconductor), the remaining being a temperature sensor (LM35 from National Semiconductor Corporation), a humidity sensor (HIH–3610 from Honeywell), and a pressure sensor (XFAM from Fujikura Ltd.). Our integrated hardware–software system uses some machine learning principles and least square regression principle to identify at first a new gas sample, or a mixture, and then to estimate the concentrations. In particular we adopt a training model using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) approach with linear kernel to teach the system how discriminate among different gases. Then we apply another training model using the least square regression, to predict the concentrations. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed multiclassification and regression scheme is effective in the identification of the tested VOCs of methanol and acetone with 96.61% correctness. The concentration prediction is obtained with 0.979 and 0.964 correlation coefficient for the predicted versus real concentrations of methanol and acetone, respectively.

Keywords: Electronic nose, Least square regression, Mixture ofgases, Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: Pejman Hosseinioun, Hasan Shakeri, Ghasem Ghorbanirostam

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In recent years, we have seen an increasing importance of research and study on knowledge source, decision support systems, data mining and procedure of knowledge discovery in data bases and it is considered that each of these aspects affects the others. In this article, we have merged information source and knowledge source to suggest a knowledge based system within limits of management based on storing and restoring of knowledge to manage information and improve decision making and resources. In this article, we have used method of data mining and Apriori algorithm in procedure of knowledge discovery one of the problems of Apriori algorithm is that, a user should specify the minimum threshold for supporting the regularity. Imagine that a user wants to apply Apriori algorithm for a database with millions of transactions. Definitely, the user does not have necessary knowledge of all existing transactions in that database, and therefore cannot specify a suitable threshold. Our purpose in this article is to improve Apriori algorithm. To achieve our goal, we tried using fuzzy logic to put data in different clusters before applying the Apriori algorithm for existing data in the database and we also try to suggest the most suitable threshold to the user automatically.

Keywords: Decision support system, data mining, knowledge discovery, data discovery, fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Ajay V. Kolhe, R. E. Shelke, S. S. Khandare

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The use of biodiesel in conventional diesel engines results in substantial reduction of unburned hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide and particulate matters. The performance, emission and combustion characteristics of a single cylinder four stroke variable compression ratio engine when fueled with Karanja (Pongamia) methyl ester and its 10-50 % blends with diesel (on a volume basis) are investigated and compared with standard diesel. The suitability of karanja methyl ester as a biofuel has been established in this study. The useful brake power obtained is similar to diesel fuel for all loads. Experiment has been conducted at a fixed engine speed of 1500 rpm, variable load and at compression ratios of 17.5:1 and 18.5:1. The impact of compression ratio on fuel consumption, combustion pressures and exhaust gas emissions has been investigated and presented. Optimum compression ratio which gives best performance has been identified. The results indicate longer ignition delay, maximum rate of pressure rise, lower heat release rate and higher mass fraction burnt at higher compression ratio for pongamia oil methyl ester when compared to that of diesel. The brake thermal efficiency for pongamia oil methyl ester blends and diesel has been calculated and the blend B20 is found to give maximum thermal efficiency. The blends when used as fuel results in reduction of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbon and increase in nitrogen oxides emissions. PME as an oxygenated fuel generated more complete combustion, which means increased torque and power. This is also supported with higher thermal efficiencies of the PME blends. NO_x is slightly increased due to the higher combustion temperature and the presence of fuel oxygen with the blend at full load. PME as a new Biodiesel and its blends can be used in diesel engines without any engine modification.

Keywords: Variable compression ratio CI engine, performance, combustion, emissions, biodiesel.

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Authors: Marwan Abukhaled, Ibrahim Sadek

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This paper presents the vibrations suppression of a thermoelastic beam subject to sudden heat input by a distributed piezoelectric actuators. An optimization problem is formulated as the minimization of a quadratic functional in terms of displacement and velocity at a given time and with the least control effort. The solution method is based on a combination of modal expansion and variational approaches. The modal expansion approach is used to convert the optimal control of distributed parameter system into the optimal control of lumped parameter system. By utilizing the variational approach, an explicit optimal control law is derived and the determination of the corresponding displacement and velocity is reduced to solving a set of ordinary differential equations.

Keywords: Optimal control, Thermoelastic beam, variational approach, modal expansion approach

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Authors: A. Izadbakhsh, M. M. Fateh

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A model-free robust control (MFRC) approach is proposed for position control of robot manipulators in the state space. The control approach is verified analytically to be robust subject to uncertainties including external disturbances, unmodeled dynamics, and parametric uncertainties. There is a high flexibility to work on different systems including actuators by the use of the proposed control approach. The proposed control approach can guarantee the robustness of control system. A PUMA 560 robot driven by geared permanent magnet dc motors is simulated. The simulation results show a satisfactory performance for control system under technical specifications. KeywordsModel-free, robust control, position control, PUMA 560.

Keywords: Model-free, robust control, position control, PUMA 560.

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Authors: Faroogh Khakzad, Marzieh Dehghani, Elahe Hejazi

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The present study investigates the effect of teaching a Thinking and Research lesson by cooperative and traditional methods on the creativity of sixth-grade students in Piranshahr province. The statistical society includes all the sixth-grade students of Piranshahr province. The sample of this studytable was selected by available sampling from among male elementary schools of Piranshahr. They were randomly assigned into two groups of cooperative teaching method and traditional teaching method. The design of the study is quasi-experimental with a control group. In this study, to assess students’ creativity, Abedi’s creativity questionnaire was used. Based on Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, the reliability of the factor flow was 0.74, innovation was 0.61, flexibility was 0.63, and expansion was 0.68. To analyze the data, t-test, univariate and multivariate covariance analysis were used for evaluation of the difference of means and the pretest and posttest scores. The findings of the research showed that cooperative teaching method does not significantly increase creativity (p > 0.05). Moreover, cooperative teaching method was found to have significant effect on flow factor (p < 0.05), but in innovation and expansion factors no significant effect was observed (p < 0.05).

Keywords: Cooperative teaching method, traditional teaching method, creativity, flow, innovation, flexibility, expansion, thinking and research lesson.

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Authors: Ryu Watanabe, Yutaka Miyake

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Reducing the risk of information leaks is one of the most important functions of identity management systems. To achieve this purpose, Dey et al. have already proposed an account management method for a federated login system using a blind signature scheme. In order to ensure account anonymity for the authentication provider, referred to as an IDP (identity provider), a blind signature scheme is utilized to generate an authentication token on an authentication service and the token is sent to an IDP. However, there is a problem with the proposed system. Malicious users can establish multiple accounts on an IDP by requesting such accounts. As a measure to solve this problem, in this paper, the authors propose an account checking method that is performed before account generation.

Keywords: identity management, blind signature, privacy protection

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Authors: A. R. Nemati, M. Haddad Zarif, M. M. Fateh

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This paper presents an adaptive feedback linearization approach to derive helicopter. Ideal feedback linearization is defined for the cases when the system model is known. Adaptive feedback linearization is employed to get asymptotically exact cancellation for the inherent uncertainty in the knowledge of the given parameters of system. The control algorithm is implemented using the feedback linearization technique and adaptive method. The controller parameters are unknown where an adaptive control law aims to drive them towards their ideal values for providing perfect model matching between the reference model and the closed-loop plant model. The converged parameters of controller would then provide good estimates for the unknown plant parameters.

Keywords: Adaptive control, helicopter, feedback linearization, nonlinear control.

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Zamani Kouhpanji

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Characterizing the fatigue and fracture properties of nanostructures is one of the most challenging tasks in nanoscience and nanotechnology due to lack of a MEMS/NEMS device for generating uniform cyclic loadings at high frequencies. Here, the dynamic response of a recently proposed MEMS/NEMS device under different inputs signals is completely investigated. This MEMS/NEMS device is designed and modeled based on the electromagnetic force induced between paired parallel wires carrying electrical currents, known as Ampere’s Force Law (AFL). Since this MEMS/NEMS device only uses two paired wires for actuation part and sensing part, it represents highly sensitive and linear response for nanostructures with any stiffness and shapes (single or arrays of nanowires, nanotubes, nanosheets or nanowalls). In addition to studying the maximum gains at different resonance frequencies of the MEMS/NEMS device, its dynamical responses are investigated for different inputs and nanostructure properties to demonstrate the capability, usability, and reliability of the device for wide range of nanostructures. This MEMS/NEMS device can be readily integrated into SEM/TEM instruments to provide real time study of the fatigue and fracture properties of nanostructures as well as their softening or hardening behaviors, and initiation and/or propagation of nanocracks in them.

Keywords: Ampere’s force law, dynamical response, fatigue and fracture characterization, paired wire actuators and sensors, MEMS/NEMS devices.

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Authors: Seiya Teshima, Kazushige Magatani

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Currently, many types of no-reversible compressed sound source, represented by MP3 (MPEG Audio Layer-3) are popular in the world and they are widely used to make the music file size smaller. The sound data created in this way has less information as compared to pre-compressed data. The objective of this study is by analyzing EEG to determine if people can recognize such difference as differences in sound. A measurement system that can measure and analyze EEG when a subject listens to music were experimentally developed. And ten subjects were studied with this system. In this experiment, a WAVE formatted music data and a MP3 compressed music data that is made from the WAVE formatted data were prepared. Each subject was made to hear these music sources at the same volume. From the results of this experiment, clear differences were confirmed between two wound sources.

Keywords: EEG, Biological signal , Sound , MP3

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Authors: Mehrnoush Shamsfard, Maryam Sadr Mousavi

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Extracting thematic (semantic) roles is one of the major steps in representing text meaning. It refers to finding the semantic relations between a predicate and syntactic constituents in a sentence. In this paper we present a rule-based approach to extract semantic roles from Persian sentences. The system exploits a twophase architecture to (1) identify the arguments and (2) label them for each predicate. For the first phase we developed a rule based shallow parser to chunk Persian sentences and for the second phase we developed a knowledge-based system to assign 16 selected thematic roles to the chunks. The experimental results of testing each phase are shown at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Natural Language Processing, Semantic RoleLabeling, Shallow parsing, Thematic Roles.

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Authors: W. Molee, P. Puttaraksa, S. Khempaka

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The experiment was conducted to study the effect of rearing systems on fatty acid composition and cholesterol content of Thai indigenous chicken meat. Three hundred and sixty chicks were allocated to 2 different rearing systems: conventional, housing in an indoor pen (5 birds/m2); free-range, housing in an indoor pen (5 birds/m2) with access to a grass paddock (1 bird/m2) from 8 wk of age until slaughter. All birds were provided with the same diet during the experimental period. At 16 wk of age, 24 birds per group were slaughtered to evaluate the fatty acid composition and cholesterol content of breast and thigh meat. The results showed that the proportion of SFA, MUFA and PUFA in breast and thigh meat were not different among groups (P>0.05). However, the proportion of n-3 fatty acids was higher and the ratio of n-6 to n-3 fatty acids was lower in free-range system than in conventional system (P<0.05). There was no difference between groups in cholesterol content in breast and thigh meat (P>0.05). The data indicated that the free-range system could increase the proportion of n-3 fatty acids, but no effect on cholesterol content in Thai indigenous chicken meat.

Keywords: Cholesterol, fatty acid composition, free-range, Thai indigenous chicken

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Authors: Shahrinaz Ismail, Roslina Abdul Latif

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Social media has led to paradigm shifts in ways people work and do business, interact and socialize, learn and obtain knowledge. So much so that social media has established itself as an important spatial extension of this nation-s historicity and challenges. Regardless of the enabling reputation and recommendation features through social networks embedded in the social media system, the overflow of broadcasted and publicized media contents turns the table around from engendering trust to doubting the trust system. When the trust is at doubt, the effects include deactivation of accounts and creation of multiple profiles, which lead to the overflow of 'ghost' contents (i.e. “the abundance of abandoned ships"). In most literature, the study of trust can be related to culture; hence the difference between Western-s “openness" and Eastern-s “blue-chip" concepts in networking and relationships. From a survey on issues and challenges among Malaysian social media users, 'authenticity' emerges as one of the main factors that causes and is caused by other factors. The other issue that has surfaced is credibility either in terms of message/content and source. Another is the quality of the knowledge that is shared. This paper explores the terrains of this critical space which in recent years has been dominated increasingly by, arguably, social networks embedded in the social media system, the overflow of broadcasted and publicized media content.

Keywords: Authenticity, credibility, knowledge quality and social media.

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Authors: Patrick Maier, Marcus Tönnis, Gudrun Klinker

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Spatial understanding and the understanding of dynamic change in the spatial structure of molecules during a reaction is essential for designing new molecules. Knowing the physical processes in the reactions helps to speed up the designing process. To support the designer with the correct representation of the designed molecule as well as showing the dynamic behavior of the whole reacting system is the goal of our application. Our system shows the spatial deformation of the molecules at every time interval by minimizing the energy level of the molecules. The position and orientation of the molecules can be intuitively controlled by manipulating objects of the real world using Augmented Reality techniques. Our approach has the potential to speed up the design of new molecules and help students to understand the chemical processes better.

Keywords: Augmented Augmented Chemical Reactions, Augmented Reality, chemistry, education.

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Authors: Chen-Yuan Chen, Wan-I Lee, Yi-Chaio Sui, Cheng-Wu Chen

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This study focuses on the development of triangular fuzzy numbers, the revising of triangular fuzzy numbers, and the constructing of a HCFN (half-circle fuzzy number) model which can be utilized to perform more plural operations. They are further transformed for trigonometric functions and polar coordinates. From half-circle fuzzy numbers we can conceive cylindrical fuzzy numbers, which work better in algebraic operations. An example of fuzzy control is given in a simulation to show the applicability of the proposed half-circle fuzzy numbers.

Keywords: triangular fuzzy number, half-circle fuzzy numbers, predictions, polar coordinates, Lyapunov method

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Authors: Ei Ei Moe, Zaw Min Aung, Kyawt Khin

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This paper puts forward one kind of air-fuel ratio control method with PI controller. With the help of MATLAB/SIMULINK software, the mathematical model of air-fuel ratio control system for distributorless CNG engine is constructed. The objective is to maintain cylinder-to-cylinder air-fuel ratio at a prescribed set point, determined primarily by the state of the Three- Way-Catalyst (TWC), so that the pollutants in the exhaust are removed with the highest efficiency. The concurrent control of airfuel under transient conditions could be implemented by Proportional and Integral (PI) controller. The simulation result indicates that the control methods can easily eliminate the air/fuel maldistribution and maintain the air/fuel ratio at the stochiometry within minimum engine events.

Keywords: Distributorless CNG Engine, Mathematical Modelof Air-fuel control, MATLAB/SIMULINK, PI controller

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Authors: M. Kubeitari, A. Alhusayn, M. Alnahar

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Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation SVPWM is one of the most used techniques to generate sinusoidal voltage and current due to its facility and efficiency with low harmonics distortion. This algorithm is specially used in power electronic applications. This paper describes simulation algorithm of SVPWM & SPWM using MatLab/simulink environment. It also implements a closed loop three phases DC-AC converter controlling its outputs voltages amplitude and frequency using MatLab. Also comparison between SVPWM & SPWM results is given.

Keywords: DC-AC Converter, MatLab, SPWM, SVPWM, Vref - rotating frame.

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: Generalized extreme values (GEV), likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution.

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Authors: Alexander Efremov

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A system for market identification (SMI) is presented. The resulting representations are multivariable dynamic demand models. The market specifics are analyzed. Appropriate models and identification techniques are chosen. Multivariate static and dynamic models are used to represent the market behavior. The steps of the first stage of SMI, named data preprocessing, are mentioned. Next, the second stage, which is the model estimation, is considered in more details. Stepwise linear regression (SWR) is used to determine the significant cross-effects and the orders of the model polynomials. The estimates of the model parameters are obtained by a numerically stable estimator. Real market data is used to analyze SMI performance. The main conclusion is related to the applicability of multivariate dynamic models for representation of market systems.

Keywords: market identification, dynamic models, stepwise regression.

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Authors: L. Ngowi, N. H. Mvungi

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This paper critically examines the evolution of socio-technical systems theory, its practices, and challenges in system design and development. It examines concepts put forward by researchers focusing on the application of the theory in software engineering. There are various methods developed that use socio-technical concepts based on systems engineering without remarkable success. The main constraint is the large amount of data and inefficient techniques used in the application of the concepts in system engineering for developing time-bound systems and within a limited/controlled budget. This paper critically examines each of the methods, highlight bottlenecks and suggest the way forward. Since socio-technical systems theory only explains what to do, but not how doing it, hence engineers are not using the concept to save time, costs and reduce risks associated with new frameworks. Hence, a new framework, which can be considered as a practical approach is proposed that borrows concepts from soft systems method, agile systems development and object-oriented analysis and design to bridge the gap between theory and practice. The approach will enable the development of systems using socio-technical systems theory to attract/enable the system engineers/software developers to use socio-technical systems theory in building worthwhile information systems to avoid fragilities and hostilities in the work environment.

Keywords: Socio-technical systems, human centered design, software engineering, cognitive engineering, soft systems, systems engineering.

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Authors: Daniel J. O. Ferreira, Juan H. Sosa-Arnao, Bruno C. Moreira, Leonardo P. Rangel, Song W. Park

Abstract:

The comprehensive CFD models have been used to represent and study the heterogeneous combustion of biomass. In the present work, the operation of a global flue gas circuit in the sugarcane bagasse combustion, from wind boxes below primary air grate supply, passing by bagasse insertion in swirl burners and boiler furnace, to boiler bank outlet is simulated. It uses five different meshes representing each part of this system located in sequence: wind boxes and grate, boiler furnace, swirl burners, superheaters and boiler bank. The model considers turbulence using standard k-ε, combustion using EDM, radiation heat transfer using DTM with 16 ray directions and bagasse particle tracking represented by Schiller- Naumann model. The results showed good agreement with expected behavior found in literature and equipment design. The more detailed results view in separated parts of flue gas system allows observing some flow behaviors that cannot be represented by usual simplifications like bagasse supply under homogeneous axial and rotational vectors and others that can be represented using new considerations like the representation of 26 thousand grate orifices by 144 rectangular inlets.

Keywords: Comprehensive CFD model, sugar-cane bagasse combustion, sugar-cane bagasse grate boiler.

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