Search results for: dual line ACK link

Authors: Nathar Shah, Bu Kiat Seng

Abstract:

Mobile application development is different from regular application development due to the hardware resource limitations existed in the mobile platforms. In the mobile environment, the application needs to be optimized by the developer to produce optimal software with least overhead. This study discussed about performance optimization techniques that are employed in general application development, and how such techniques are performing on mobile platforms through some empirical evaluations on a mobile emulator, Nokia X3-02 and Nokia C5-03devices. The scope of the work is only confined to mobile platform based on Java Mobile edition architecture. The empirical results showed that techniques such as loop unrolling, dependency chain, and linearized getter and setter performed better by a factor of 3 to 7. Whereas declaration and initialization on the same line or separate line did not improve the performance.

Keywords: Optimization Techniques, Mobile Applications, Performance Evaluation, J2ME, Empirical Experiments

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Authors: Fotis N. Koumboulis, Maria P. Tzamtzi

Abstract:

A supervisory scheme is proposed that implements Stepwise Safe Switching Logic. The functionality of the supervisory scheme is organized in the following eight functional units: Step- Wise Safe Switching unit, Common controllers design unit, Experimentation unit, Simulation unit, Identification unit, Trajectory cruise unit, Operating points unit and Expert system unit. The supervisory scheme orchestrates both the off-line preparative actions, as well as the on-line actions that implement the Stepwise Safe Switching Logic. The proposed scheme is a generic tool, that may be easily applied for a variety of industrial control processes and may be implemented as an automation software system, with the use of a high level programming environment, like Matlab.

Keywords: Supervisory systems, safe switching, nonlinear systems.

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Authors: Kai Jin, Hyder Abdul-Razzak, Yousri Elkassabgi, Hong Zhou, Aaron Herrera

Abstract:

Six Sigma is a well known discipline that reduces variation using complex statistical tools and the DMAIC model. By integrating Goldratts-s Theory of Constraints, the Five Focusing Points and System Thinking tools, Six Sigma projects can be selected where it can cause more impact in the company. This research defines an integrated model of six sigma and constraint management that shows a step-by-step guide using the original methodologies from each discipline and is evaluated in a case study from the production line of a Automobile engine monoblock V8, resulting in an increase in the line capacity from 18.7 pieces per hour to 22.4 pieces per hour, a reduction of 60% of Work-In-Process and a variation decrease of 0.73%.

Keywords: Constraint Management, Manufacturing Process Improvement, Six Sigma, System Thinking.

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Authors: Seyed Saeid Tabaee, Omid Bahar

Abstract:

Nowadays, energy dissipation devices are commonly used in structures. High rate of energy absorption during earthquakes is the benefit of using such devices, which results in damage reduction of structural elements, specifically columns. The hysteretic damping capacity of energy dissipation devices is the key point that it may adversely make analysis and design process complicated. This effect may be generally represented by Equivalent Viscous Damping (EVD). The equivalent viscous damping might be obtained from the expected hysteretic behavior regarding to the design or maximum considered displacement of a structure. In this paper, the hysteretic damping coefficient of a steel Moment Resisting Frame (MRF), which its performance is enhanced by a Buckling Restrained Brace (BRB) system has been evaluated. Having foresight of damping fraction between BRB and MRF is inevitable for seismic design procedures like Direct Displacement-Based Design (DDBD) method. This paper presents an approach to calculate the damping fraction for such systems by carrying out the dynamic nonlinear time history analysis (NTHA) under harmonic loading, which is tuned to the natural system frequency. Two MRF structures, one equipped with BRB and the other without BRB are simultaneously studied. Extensive analysis shows that proportion of each system damping fraction may be calculated by its shear story portion. In this way, contribution of each BRB in the floors and their general contribution in the structural performance may be clearly recognized, in advance.

Keywords: Buckling restrained brace, Direct displacement based design, Dual systems, Hysteretic damping, Moment resisting frames.

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Authors: Rajeev Ranjan Sahay

Abstract:

Transient storage zones along the flow paths of rivers have great influence on the dispersion of pollutants that are either accidentally or otherwise led into them. The speed with which these pollution clouds get transported and dispersed downstream is, to a large extent, explained by the longitudinal dispersion coefficients in the free-flowing zones of rivers (Kf). In the present work, a new empirical expression for Kf has been derived employing genetic programming (GP) on published dispersion data. The proposed expression uses few hydraulic and geometric characteristics of a river that are readily available to field engineers. Based on various performance indices, the proposed expression is found superior to other existing expression for Kf.

Keywords: Dispersion, parameter estimation, rivers, transient pollutant.

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Authors: Kasem Theerakittayakorn, Tanom Bunprasert

Abstract:

Mouse L929 fibroblastic cell line, which is widely used in many experiment aspects, was tested for their differentiation potency in osteogenic differentiation and adipogenic differentiation. Human dermal fibroblasts, which their differentiation potency are still be in confliction, also be taken in the experiment. The differentiations were conducted by using the inducing medium ingredients which is generally used to induce differentiation of stem cells. By the inducing media used, L929 mouse fibroblasts successfully underwent osteogenic differentiation and adipogenic differentiation while human dermal fibroblasts underwent only osteogenic differentiation but not for adipogenic differentiation. Human dermal fibroblasts are hard to be differentiated in adipogenic lineage and need specific proper condition for induction.

Keywords: Adipogenic differentiation, Fibroblast, Inducingmedium, Osteogenic differentiation

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Authors: G. Saxena, D. Singh, M. Kaushik,

Abstract:

Inspired by the recent experiments [1]-[3] indicating unusual doubly magic nucleus 24O which lies just at the neutron drip-line and encouraged by the success of our relativistic mean-field (RMF) plus state dependent BCS approach for the description of the ground state properties of the drip-line nuclei [23]-[27], we have further employed this approach, across the entire periodic table, to explore the unusual shell closures in exotic nuclei. In our RMF+BCS approach the single particle continuum corresponding to the RMF is replaced by a set of discrete positive energy states for the calculations of pairing energy. Detailed analysis of the single particle spectrum, pairing energies and densities of the nuclei predict the unusual proton shell closures at Z = 6, 14, 16, 34, and unusual neutron shell closures at N = 6, 14, 16, 34, 40, 70, 112.

Keywords: Relativistic Mean Field theory, Magic Nucleus, Si isotopes, Shell Closure.

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Authors: Pucheng Zhou, Bingrong Hong

Abstract:

How to coordinate the behaviors of the agents through learning is a challenging problem within multi-agent domains. Because of its complexity, recent work has focused on how coordinated strategies can be learned. Here we are interested in using reinforcement learning techniques to learn the coordinated actions of a group of agents, without requiring explicit communication among them. However, traditional reinforcement learning methods are based on the assumption that the environment can be modeled as Markov Decision Process, which usually cannot be satisfied when multiple agents coexist in the same environment. Moreover, to effectively coordinate each agent-s behavior so as to achieve the goal, it-s necessary to augment the state of each agent with the information about other existing agents. Whereas, as the number of agents in a multiagent environment increases, the state space of each agent grows exponentially, which will cause the combinational explosion problem. Profit sharing is one of the reinforcement learning methods that allow agents to learn effective behaviors from their experiences even within non-Markovian environments. In this paper, to remedy the drawback of the original profit sharing approach that needs much memory to store each state-action pair during the learning process, we firstly address a kind of on-line rational profit sharing algorithm. Then, we integrate the advantages of modular learning architecture with on-line rational profit sharing algorithm, and propose a new modular reinforcement learning model. The effectiveness of the technique is demonstrated using the pursuit problem.

Keywords: Multi-agent learning; reinforcement learning; rationalprofit sharing; modular architecture.

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Authors: D. Ouahdi, R. Ladjeroud, I. Habi

Abstract:

The distance protection mainly the impedance relay which is considered as the main protection for transmission lines can be subjected to impedance measurement error which is, mainly, due to the fault resistance and to the power fluctuation. Thus, the impedance relay may not operate for a short circuit at the far end of the protected line (case of the under reach) or operates for a fault beyond its protected zone (case of overreach). In this paper, an approach to fault detection by a distance protection, which distinguishes between the faulty conditions and the effect of overload operation mode, has been developed. This approach is based on the symmetrical components; mainly the negative sequence, and it is taking into account both the effect of fault resistance and the overload situation which both have an effect upon the reliability of the protection in terms of dependability for the former and security for the latter.

Keywords: Distance Protection, Fault Detection, negative sequence, overload, Transmission line.

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Authors: S. Meikandasivam, D. Vijayakumar, Rajesh Kumar Nema, Shailendra Kumar Jain

Abstract:

This paper investigates the performance of the single TCSC and proposed split TCSC on transmission system where India’s first TCSC project is installed in Kanpur - Ballabhgarh (KB) line to ensure the fine tuning of line reactance by proposed split TCSC in place of existing KB TCSC. A three phase KB transmission system is developed in MATLAB/Simulink (SimPowerSystems) for

1. without any compensation,
2. with fixed capacitor (FC),
3. with FC + existing KB TCSC and
4. with FC + proposed split TCSC

The KB system is analyzed for a step variation of load and performance of the system is investigated with a closed loop reactance control method.

Keywords: Single TCSC, Split TCSC, TCSC Reactance characteristic curve, Power flow analysis, Sensitivity analysis.

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Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Kengo Nagatomo, Hitoshi Takata

Abstract:

This paper deals with an on-line identification method of continuous-time Hammerstein systems by using the radial basis function (RBF) networks and immune algorithm (IA). An unknown nonlinear static part to be estimated is approximately represented by the RBF network. The IA is efficiently combined with the recursive least-squares (RLS) method. The objective function for the identification is regarded as the antigen. The candidates of the RBF parameters such as the centers and widths are coded into binary bit strings as the antibodies and searched by the IA. On the other hand, the candidates of both the weighting parameters of the RBF network and the system parameters of the linear dynamic part are updated by the RLS method. Simulation results are shown to illustrate the proposed method.

Keywords: Continuous-time System, Hammerstein System, OnlineIdentification, Immune Algorithm, RBF network.

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Authors: Ali Ghobadi, Seyed Mohammad Javadi, Behnam Rahimi

Abstract:

The present study is concerned with the effect of exciting boundary layer on cooling process in a gas-turbine blades. The cooling process is numerically investigated. Observations show cooling the first row of moving or stable blades leads to increase their life-time. Results show that minimum temperature in cooling line with exciting boundary layer is lower than without exciting. Using block in cooling line of turbines' blade causes flow pattern and stability in boundary layer changed that causes increase in heat transfer coefficient. Results show at the location of block, temperature of turbines' blade is significantly decreased. The k-ε turbulence model is used.

Keywords: Cooling, Exciting Boundary Layer, Heat Transfer, Turbine Blade.

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Authors: M. A. Amer, J. A. Chávez, M. J. García-Hernández, J. Salazar, A. Turó

Abstract:

In this paper, the design of a QCM sensor for liquid media measurements in vertical position is described. A rugged and low-cost proof holder has been designed, the cost of which is significantly lower than those of traditional commercial holders. The crystal is not replaceable but it can be easily cleaned. Its small volume permits to be used by dipping it in the liquid with the desired location and orientation. The developed design has been experimentally validated by measuring changes in the resonance frequency and resistance of the QCM sensor immersed vertically in different calibrated aqueous glycerol solutions. The obtained results show a great agreement with the Kanazawa theoretical expression. Consequently, the designed QCM sensor would be appropriate for sensing applications in liquids, and might take part of a future on-line multichannel low-cost QCM-based measurement system.

Keywords: Holder design, liquid-media measurements, multi-channel measurements, QCM.

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Authors: K. Horáková, K. Fraňa, V. Honzejk

Abstract:

This part of study deals with description of unsteady isothermal melt flow in the container with cuboid shape. This melt flow is driven by rotating magnetic field. Input data (instantaneous velocities, grid coordinates and Lorentz forces) were obtained from in-house CFD code (called NS-FEM3D) which uses DDES method of computing. Description of the flow was performed by contours of Lorentz forces and caused velocity field. Taylor magnetic numbers of the flow were used 1.10^6, 5.10^6 and 1.10^7, flow was in 3D turbulent flow regime.

Keywords: In-house computing code, Lorentz forces, magnetohydrodynamics, rotating magnetic field.

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Authors: Nnadi Ezekiel Ejiofor

Abstract:

The study investigates the connection between strategic leadership and project management sustainability, with an emphasis on building projects Nigeria. The study set out to accomplish two specific goals: first, it sought to establish a link between creative project management and resource efficiency in construction projects in Nigeria; and second, it sought to establish a link between innovative thinking and waste minimization in those same projects. A structured questionnaire was used to collect primary data from 45 registered construction enterprises in the study area as part of the study's descriptive research approach. Due to the nonparametric nature of the data, Spearman Rank Order Correlation was used to evaluate the acquired data. The findings demonstrate that creative project management had a significant positive impact on resource efficiency in construction projects carried out by project management firms (r =.849; p.001), and that innovative thinking had a significant impact on waste reduction in those same projects (r =.849; p.001). It was determined that strategic leadership had a significant impact on the sustainability of project management, and it was thus advised that project managers should foresee, prepare for, and effectively communicate present and future developments to project staff in order to ensure that the objective of sustainable initiatives, such as recycling and reuse, is implemented in construction projects.

Keywords: Construction, project management, strategic leadership, sustainability, waste reduction.

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Authors: P. Karimi, A. H. Khedmati Bazkiaei

Abstract:

The main goal of this study is to test differential neural network as a controller of smart structure and is to enumerate its advantages and disadvantages in comparison with other controllers. In this study, the smart structure has been considered as a Euler Bernoulli cantilever beam and it has been tried that it be under control with the use of vibration neural network resulting from movement. Also, a linear observer has been considered as a reference controller and has been compared its results. The considered vibration charts and the controlled state have been recounted in the final part of this text. The obtained result show that neural observer has better performance in comparison to the implemented linear observer.

Keywords: Smart material, on-line differential artificial neural network, active control, finite element method.

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Authors: Punit Kumar, Niraj Kumar

Abstract:

The influence of transverse surface roughness on EHL characteristics has been investigated numerically using an extensive set of full EHL line contact simulations for shear-thinning lubricants under pure sliding condition. The shear-thinning behavior of lubricant is modeled using Carreau viscosity equation along with Doolittle-Tait equation for lubricant compressibility. The surface roughness is assumed to be sinusoidal and it is present on the stationary surface. It is found that surface roughness causes sharp pressure peaks along with reduction in central and minimum film thickness. With increasing amplitude of surface roughness, the minimum film thickness decreases much more rapidly as compared to the central film thickness.

Keywords: EHL, Carreau, Shear-thinning, Surface Roughness, Amplitude, Wavelength.

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Authors: M. S. Anton Merkulov

Abstract:

This article discusses the questions concerning of creating small packet networks for energy companies with application of high voltage power line carrier equipment (PLC) with functionality of IP traffic transmission. The main idea is to create converged PLC links between substations and dispatching centers where packet data and voice are transmitted in one data flow. The article contents description of basic conception of the network, evaluation of voice traffic transmission parameters, and discussion of header compression techniques in relation to PLC links. The results of exploration show us, that convergent packet PLC links can be very useful in the construction of small packet networks between substations in remote locations, such as deposits or low populated areas.

Keywords: packet PLC, VoIP, time delay, packet traffic, overhead compression

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Authors: Hany Osman, M. F. Baki

Abstract:

We address the balancing problem of transfer lines in this paper to find the optimal line balancing that minimizes the nonproductive time. We focus on the tool change time and face orientation change time both of which influence the makespane. We consider machine capacity limitations and technological constraints associated with the manufacturing process of auto cylinder heads. The problem is represented by a mixed integer programming model that aims at distributing the design features to workstations and sequencing the machining processes at a minimum non-productive time. The proposed model is solved by an algorithm established using linearization schemes and Benders- decomposition approach. The experiments show the efficiency of the algorithm in reaching the exact solution of small and medium problem instances at reasonable time.

Keywords: Transfer line balancing, Benders' decomposition, Linearization.

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Authors: Sakol Udomsiri, Masahiro Iwahashi

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new design of spatial FIR filter to automatically detect water level from a video signal of various river surroundings. A new approach in this report applies "addition" of frames and a "horizontal" edge detector to distinguish water region and land region. Variance of each line of a filtered video frame is used as a feature value. The water level is recognized as a boundary line between the land region and the water region. Edge detection filter essentially demarcates between two distinctly different regions. However, the conventional filters are not automatically adaptive to detect water level in various lighting conditions of river scenery. An optimized filter is purposed so that the system becomes robust to changes of lighting condition. More reliability of the proposed system with the optimized filter is confirmed by accuracy of water level detection.

Keywords: water level, video, filter, detection.

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Authors: Ashish Saini, A.K. Saxena

Abstract:

The genetic algorithm (GA) based solution techniques are found suitable for optimization because of their ability of simultaneous multidimensional search. Many GA-variants have been tried in the past to solve optimal power flow (OPF), one of the nonlinear problems of electric power system. The issues like convergence speed and accuracy of the optimal solution obtained after number of generations using GA techniques and handling system constraints in OPF are subjects of discussion. The results obtained for GA-Fuzzy OPF on various power systems have shown faster convergence and lesser generation costs as compared to other approaches. This paper presents an enhanced GA-Fuzzy OPF (EGAOPF) using penalty factors to handle line flow constraints and load bus voltage limits for both normal network and contingency case with congestion. In addition to crossover and mutation rate adaptation scheme that adapts crossover and mutation probabilities for each generation based on fitness values of previous generations, a block swap operator is also incorporated in proposed EGA-OPF. The line flow limits and load bus voltage magnitude limits are handled by incorporating line overflow and load voltage penalty factors respectively in each chromosome fitness function. The effects of different penalty factors settings are also analyzed under contingent state.

Keywords: Contingent operation state, Fuzzy rule base, Genetic Algorithms, Optimal Power Flow.

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Authors: S. D. Nedelcut, V. Proca, D. M. Purcaru

Abstract:

At present, the tendency to implement the conditionbased maintenance (CBM), which allows the optimization of the expenses for equipment monitoring, is more and more evident; also, the transformer substations with remote monitoring are increasingly used. This paper reviews all the advantages of the on-line monitoring and presents an equipment for on-line monitoring of bushings, which is the own contribution of specialists who are the authors of this paper. The paper presents a study of the temperature field, using the finite element method. For carrying out this study, the 3D modelling of the above mentioned bushing was performed. The analysis study is done taking into account the extreme thermal stresses, focusing at the level of the first cooling wing section of the ceramic insulator. This fact enables to justify the tanδ variation in time, depending on the transformer loading and the environmental conditions. With a view to reducing the variation of dielectric losses in bushing insulation, the use of ferrofuids instead of mineral oils is proposed.

Keywords: Monitoring, dielectric losses, ferrofluids, bushing.

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Authors: E. Neidhardt

Abstract:

Mobility, for many people, is an important factor in the satisfaction of daily needs and many people are dependent on public transport. In rural areas with a low population density, it is difficult to provide public transportation with sufficient coverage and frequency. Therefore, the available public transport is unattractive. As a result, people use their own car, which is not desirable from a sustainable point of view and not possible for children and elderly people. Sometimes people organize themselves and volunteer transport services are created. These services are similar to demand-oriented taxis. However, these transport services are usually independent from each other and from the available line-based public transport, limiting both their usability and sustainability. We have developed a platform to improve usability and sustainability by connecting the different demand-oriented transport offerings with the line-based public transport. The system was implemented and tested in a rural area in Germany, but the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic limited real live operation.

Keywords: demand-oriented, HubChain, living lab, public transport

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Authors: N.Subramanian, U.K.Misra

Abstract:

The precise form of tensorial transformations acting on a given collection of infinite matrices into another ; for such classical ideas connected with the summability field of double gai sequence spaces. In this paper the results are impose conditions on the tensor g so that it becomes a tensorial transformations from the metric space χ2 to the metric space C

Keywords: tensorial transformations, double gai sequences , double analytic, dual.

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Authors: Jing Li, Xiuli Li

Abstract:

This paper studies a special class of linear codes, called skew cyclic codes, over the ring R= F_q+uF_q+…+u^k-1F_q, where q is a prime power. A Gray map ɸ from R to F_q and a Gray map ɸ' from Rⁿ to Fⁿ_q are defined, as well as an automorphism Θ over R. It is proved that the images of skew cyclic codes over R under map ɸ' and Θ are cyclic codes over F_q, and they still keep the dual relation.

Keywords: Skew cyclic code, gray map, automophism, cyclic code.

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Authors: Madhushi Bandara, Dharshana Kasthurirathna, Danaja Maldeniya, Mahendra Piraveenan

Abstract:

Community detection is an extremely useful technique in understanding the structure and function of a social network. Louvain algorithm, which is based on Newman-Girman modularity optimization technique, is extensively used as a computationally efficient method extract the communities in social networks. It has been suggested that the nodes that are in close geographical proximity have a higher tendency of forming communities. Variants of the Newman-Girman modularity measure such as dist-modularity try to normalize the effect of geographical proximity to extract geographically dispersed communities, at the expense of losing the information about the geographically proximate communities. In this work, we propose a method to extract geographically dispersed communities while preserving the information about the geographically proximate communities, by analyzing the ‘community network’, where the centroids of communities would be considered as network nodes. We suggest that the inter-community link strengths, which are normalized over the community sizes, may be used to identify and extract the ‘overlay communities’. The overlay communities would have relatively higher link strengths, despite being relatively apart in their spatial distribution. We apply this method to the Gowalla online social network, which contains the geographical signatures of its users, and identify the overlay communities within it.

Keywords: Social networks, community detection, modularity optimization, geographically dispersed communities.

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Authors: A.V.Naresh Babu, S.Sivanagaraju

Abstract:

A considerable progress has been achieved in transient stability analysis (TSA) with various FACTS controllers. But, all these controllers are associated with single transmission line. This paper is intended to discuss a new approach i.e. a multi-line FACTS controller which is interline power flow controller (IPFC) for TSA of a multi-machine power system network. A mathematical model of IPFC, termed as power injection model (PIM) presented and this model is incorporated in Newton-Raphson (NR) power flow algorithm. Then, the reduced admittance matrix of a multi-machine power system network for a three phase fault without and with IPFC is obtained which is required to draw the machine swing curves. A general approach based on L-index has also been discussed to find the best location of IPFC to reduce the proximity to instability of a power system. Numerical results are carried out on two test systems namely, 6-bus and 11-bus systems. A program in MATLAB has been written to plot the variation of generator rotor angle and speed difference curves without and with IPFC for TSA and also a simple approach has been presented to evaluate critical clearing time for test systems. The results obtained without and with IPFC are compared and discussed.

Keywords: Flexible alternating current transmission system (FACTS), first swing stability, interline power flow controller (IPFC), power injection model (PIM).

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Authors: S Kalyani, K Shanti Swarup

Abstract:

Power System Security is a major concern in real time operation. Conventional method of security evaluation consists of performing continuous load flow and transient stability studies by simulation program. This is highly time consuming and infeasible for on-line application. Pattern Recognition (PR) is a promising tool for on-line security evaluation. This paper proposes a Support Vector Machine (SVM) based binary classification for static and transient security evaluation. The proposed SVM based PR approach is implemented on New England 39 Bus and IEEE 57 Bus systems. The simulation results of SVM classifier is compared with the other classifier algorithms like Method of Least Squares (MLS), Multi- Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers.

Keywords: Static Security, Transient Security, Pattern Recognition, Classifier, Support Vector Machine.

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Authors: Amol Dahal, Shunsuke Hori, Haruki Nakazawa, Kazumitsu Onishi, Toshio Kawano, Masayuki Murai

Abstract:

Two indica varieties, IR36 and ‘Suweon 258’ (“S”) are middle-heading in southern Japan. 36U, also middle-heading, is an isogenic line of IR36 carrying Ur1 (Undulate rachis-1) gene. However, late-heading plants segregated in the F2 population from the F1 of S × 36U, and so did in the following generations. The concerning lateness gene is designated as Ex. From the F8 generation, isogenic-line pair of early-heading and late-heading lines, denoted by “E” (ex/ex) and “L” (Ex/Ex), were developed. Genetic analyses of heading time were conducted, using F1s and F2s among L, E, S and 36U. The following inferences were drawn from the experimental results: 1) L, and both of E and 36U harbor Ex and ex, respectively; 2) Besides Ex, S harbors an inhibitor gene to it, i.e. I-Ex which is a novel finding of the present study. 3) Ex is a dominant allele at the E1 locus.

Keywords: Basic vegetative phase, heading time, lateness gene, photoperiod-sensitive phase.

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Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins Method, Holt’s Method, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

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