Search results for: adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system

Authors: Sun Lim, Bong-Seok Kim

Abstract:

This paper presents an adaptive nonlinear position controller with velocity constraint, capable of combining the input-output linearization technique and Lyapunov stability theory. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory, the adaptation law of the proposed controller is derived along with the verification of the overall system-s stability. Computer simulation results demonstrate that the proposed controller is robust and it can ensure transient stability of BLDCM, under the occurrence of a large sudden fault.

Keywords: BLDC Motor Control, Backstepping Control, Adaptive nonlinear control

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Authors: H. Zarei, M. H. Fazel Zarandi, M. Karbasian

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A Decision Support System/Expert System for stock portfolio selection presented where at first step, both technical and fundamental data used to estimate technical and fundamental return and risk (1st phase); Then, the estimated values are aggregated with the investor preferences (2nd phase) to produce convenient stock portfolio. In the 1st phase, there are two expert systems, each of which is responsible for technical or fundamental estimation. In the technical expert system, for each stock, twenty seven candidates are identified and with using rough sets-based clustering method (RC) the effective variables have been selected. Next, for each stock two fuzzy rulebases are developed with fuzzy C-Mean method and Takai-Sugeno- Kang (TSK) approach; one for return estimation and the other for risk. Thereafter, the parameters of the rule-bases are tuned with backpropagation method. In parallel, for fundamental expert systems, fuzzy rule-bases have been identified in the form of “IF-THEN" rules through brainstorming with the stock market experts and the input data have been derived from financial statements; as a result two fuzzy rule-bases have been generated for all the stocks, one for return and the other for risk. In the 2nd phase, user preferences represented by four criteria and are obtained by questionnaire. Using an expert system, four estimated values of return and risk have been aggregated with the respective values of user preference. At last, a fuzzy rule base having four rules, treats these values and produce a ranking score for each stock which will lead to a satisfactory portfolio for the user. The stocks of six manufacturing companies and the period of 2003-2006 selected for data gathering.

Keywords: Stock Portfolio Selection, Fuzzy Rule-Base ExpertSystems, Financial Decision Support Systems, Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis.

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Authors: Altab Hossain, Ataur Rahman, A. K. M. Mohiuddin, Yulfian Aminanda

Abstract:

Fuzzy logic system (FLS) is used in this study to predict the tractive performance in terms of traction force, and motion resistance for an intelligent air cushion track vehicle while it operates in the swamp peat. The system is effective to control the intelligent air –cushion system with measuring the vehicle traction force (TF), motion resistance (MR), cushion clearance height (CH) and cushion pressure (CP). Ultrasonic displacement sensor, pull-in solenoid electromagnetic switch, pressure control sensor, micro controller, and battery pH sensor are incorporated with the Fuzzy logic system to investigate experimentally the TF, MR, CH, and CP. In this study, a comparison for tractive performance of an intelligent air cushion track vehicle has been performed with the results obtained from the predicted values of FLS and experimental actual values. The mean relative error of actual and predicted values from the FLS model on traction force, and total motion resistance are found as 5.58 %, and 6.78 % respectively. For all parameters, the relative error of predicted values are found to be less than the acceptable limits. The goodness of fit of the prediction values from the FLS model on TF, and MR are found as 0.90, and 0.98 respectively.

Keywords: Cushion pressure, Fuzzy logic, Motion resistance, Traction force.

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Authors: S. Sadi-Nezhad, K. Khalili Damghani, N. Pilevari

Abstract:

In this article, a mathematical programming model for choosing an optimum portfolio of investments is developed. The investments are considered as investment projects. The uncertainties of the real world are associated through fuzzy concepts for coefficients of the proposed model (i. e. initial investment costs, profits, resource requirement, and total available budget). Model has been coded by using LINGO 11.0 solver. The results of a full analysis of optimistic and pessimistic derivative models are promising for selecting an optimum portfolio of projects in presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: Fuzzy Programming, Fuzzy Knapsack, FuzzyCapital Budgeting, Fuzzy Project Selection

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Authors: Rawya Rizk, Rehab Abdel-Kader, Rabab Ramadan

Abstract:

Unlike the best effort service provided by the internet today, next-generation wireless networks will support real-time applications. This paper proposes an adaptive early packet discard (AEPD) policy to improve the performance of the real time TCP traffic over ATM networks and avoid the fragmentation problem. Three main aspects are incorporated in the proposed policy. First, providing quality-of-service (QoS) guaranteed for real-time applications by implementing a priority scheduling. Second, resolving the partially corrupted packets problem by differentiating the buffered cells of one packet from another. Third, adapting a threshold dynamically using Fuzzy logic based on the traffic behavior to maintain a high throughput under a variety of load conditions. The simulation is run for two priority classes of the input traffic: real time and non-real time classes. Simulation results show that the proposed AEPD policy improves throughput and fairness over that using static threshold under the same traffic conditions.

Keywords: Early packet discard, Fuzzy logic, packet dropping policies, quality-of-service (QoS), TCP over ATM

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Authors: H. Nemmour, Y. Chibani

Abstract:

Decision fusion is one of hot research topics in classification area, which aims to achieve the best possible performance for the task at hand. In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of this concept to improve change detection accuracy in remote sensing. Thereby, outputs of two fuzzy change detectors based respectively on simultaneous and comparative analysis of multitemporal data are fused by using fuzzy integral operators. This method fuses the objective evidences produced by the change detectors with respect to fuzzy measures that express the difference of performance between them. The proposed fusion framework is evaluated in comparison with some ordinary fuzzy aggregation operators. Experiments carried out on two SPOT images showed that the fuzzy integral was the best performing. It improves the change detection accuracy while attempting to equalize the accuracy rate in both change and no change classes.

Keywords: change detection, decision fusion, fuzzy logic, remote sensing.

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Authors: A. Faro, D. Giordano, M. Pennisi, G. Scarciofalo, C. Spampinato, F. Tramontana

Abstract:

The paper proposes a methodology to process the signals coming from the Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) in order to identify the pathology and evaluate the therapy to treat the patients affected by demency diseases. In particular, a fuzzy model is developed to identify the demency of the patients affected by Subcortical Ischemic Vascular Dementia (SIVD) and to measure the effect of a repetitive TMS on their motor performances. A tool is also presented to support the mentioned analysis.

Keywords: TMS, EMG, fuzzy logic, transcranial magnetic stimulation.

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Authors: Krishnamoorthi Makkithaya, N. V. Subba Reddy, U. Dinesh Acharya

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As the number of networked computers grows, intrusion detection is an essential component in keeping networks secure. Various approaches for intrusion detection are currently being in use with each one has its own merits and demerits. This paper presents our work to test and improve the performance of a new class of decision tree c-fuzzy decision tree to detect intrusion. The work also includes identifying best candidate feature sub set to build the efficient c-fuzzy decision tree based Intrusion Detection System (IDS). We investigated the usefulness of c-fuzzy decision tree for developing IDS with a data partition based on horizontal fragmentation. Empirical results indicate the usefulness of our approach in developing the efficient IDS.

Keywords: Data mining, Decision tree, Feature selection, Fuzzyc- means clustering, Intrusion detection.

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Authors: Jagadish H. Pujar, S. F. Kodad

Abstract:

Recent developments in Soft computing techniques, power electronic switches and low-cost computational hardware have made it possible to design and implement sophisticated control strategies for sensorless speed control of AC motor drives. Such an attempt has been made in this work, for Sensorless Speed Control of Induction Motor (IM) by means of Direct Torque Fuzzy Control (DTFC), PI-type fuzzy speed regulator and MRAS speed estimator strategy, which is absolutely nonlinear in its nature. Direct torque control is known to produce quick and robust response in AC drive system. However, during steady state, torque, flux and current ripple occurs. So, the performance of conventional DTC with PI speed regulator can be improved by implementing fuzzy logic techniques. Certain important issues in design including the space vector modulated (SVM) 3-Ф voltage source inverter, DTFC design, generation of reference torque using PI-type fuzzy speed regulator and sensor less speed estimator have been resolved. The proposed scheme is validated through extensive numerical simulations on MATLAB. The simulated results indicate the sensor less speed control of IM with DTFC and PI-type fuzzy speed regulator provides satisfactory high dynamic and static performance compare to conventional DTC with PI speed regulator.

Keywords: Sensor-less Speed Estimator, Fuzzy Logic Control(FLC), SVM, DTC, DTFC, IM, fuzzy speed regulator.

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Authors: Francisca Grimón, Marylin Giugni, Josep Monguet F., Joaquín Fernández, Luis León G.

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In blended learning environments, the Internet can be combined with other technologies. The aim of this research was to design, introduce and validate a model to support synchronous and asynchronous activities by managing content domains in an Adaptive Hypermedia System (AHS). The application is based on information recovery techniques, clustering algorithms and adaptation rules to adjust the user's model to contents and objects of study. This system was applied to blended learning in higher education. The research strategy used was the case study method. Empirical studies were carried out on courses at two universities to validate the model. The results of this research show that the model had a positive effect on the learning process. The students indicated that the synchronous and asynchronous scenario is a good option, as it involves a combination of work with the lecturer and the AHS. In addition, they gave positive ratings to the system and stated that the contents were adapted to each user profile.

Keywords: Blended Learning, System Adaptive, Model, Clustering Algorithms.

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Authors: Xinhua Zhang, Kelin Li

Abstract:

In this paper, a class of impulsive BAM fuzzy cellular neural networks with distributed delays and reaction-diffusion terms is formulated and investigated. By employing the delay differential inequality and inequality technique developed by Xu et al., some sufficient conditions ensuring the existence, uniqueness and global exponential stability of equilibrium point for impulsive BAM fuzzy cellular neural networks with distributed delays and reaction-diffusion terms are obtained. In particular, the estimate of the exponential convergence rate is also provided, which depends on system parameters, diffusion effect and impulsive disturbed intention. It is believed that these results are significant and useful for the design and applications of BAM fuzzy cellular neural networks. An example is given to show the effectiveness of the results obtained here.

Keywords: Bi-directional associative memory, fuzzy cellular neuralnetworks, reaction-diffusion, delays, impulses, global exponentialstability.

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Authors: Mansoureh Naderipour, Susan Bastani, Mohammad Fazel Zarandi

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Predicting links that may occur in the future and missing links in social networks is an attractive problem in social network analysis. Granular computing can help us to model the relationships between human-based system and social sciences in this field. In this paper, we present a model based on granular computing approach and Type-2 fuzzy logic to predict links regarding nodes’ activity and the relationship between two nodes. Our model is tested on collaboration networks. It is found that the accuracy of prediction is significantly higher than the Type-1 fuzzy and crisp approach.

Keywords: Social Network, link prediction, granular computing, Type-2 fuzzy sets.

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Authors: T. Wanyama, B. Far

Abstract:

Automatic irrigation systems usually conveniently protect landscape investment. While conventional irrigation systems are known to be inefficient, automated ones have the potential to optimize water usage. In fact, there is a new generation of irrigation systems that are smart in the sense that they monitor the weather, soil conditions, evaporation and plant water use, and automatically adjust the irrigation schedule. In this paper, we present an agent based smart irrigation system. The agents are built using a mix of commercial off the shelf software, including MATLAB, Microsoft Excel and KEPServer Ex5 OPC server, and custom written code. The Irrigation Scheduler Agent uses fuzzy logic to integrate the information that affect the irrigation schedule. In addition, the Multi-Agent system uses Open Platform Connectivity (OPC) technology to share data. OPC technology enables the Irrigation Scheduler Agent to communicate over the Internet, making the system scalable to a municipal or regional agent based water monitoring, management, and optimization system. Finally, this paper presents simulation and pilot installation test result that show the operational effectiveness of our system.

Keywords: Community water usage, fuzzy logic, irrigation, multi-agent system.

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Authors: Fadl M. Ba-Alwi, Kamal K. Bharadwaj

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In this paper a novel algorithm is proposed that integrates the process of fuzzy hierarchy generation and rule discovery for automated discovery of Production Rules with Fuzzy Hierarchy (PRFH) in large databases.A concept of frequency matrix (Freq) introduced to summarize large database that helps in minimizing the number of database accesses, identification and removal of irrelevant attribute values and weak classes during the fuzzy hierarchy generation.Experimental results have established the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Data Mining, Degree of subsumption, Freq matrix, Fuzzy hierarchy.

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Authors: Hassan Naraghi

Abstract:

In this paper, we define permutable and mutually permutable fuzzy subgroups of a group. Then we study their relation with permutable and mutually permutable subgroups of a group. Also we study some properties of fuzzy quasinormal subgroup. We define superfuzzy subset of a fuzzy subset and we study some properties of superfuzzy subset of a fuzzy subset.

Keywords: Permutable fuzzy subgroup, mutually permutable fuzzy subgroup, fuzzy quasinormal subgroup, superfuzzy subset.

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Authors: Priyanka Paliwal, N. P. Patidar, R. K. Nema

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Battery storage system is emerging as an essential component of hybrid power system based on renewable energy resources such as solar and wind in order to make these sources dispatchable. Accurate modeling of battery storage system is ssential in order to ensure optimal planning of hybrid power systems incorporating battery storage. Majority of the system planning studies involving battery storage assume battery charging efficiency to be constant. However a strong correlation exists between battery charging efficiency and battery state of charge. In this work a Fuzzy logic based model has been presented for determining battery charging efficiency relative to a particular SOC. In order to demonstrate the efficacy of proposed approach, reliability evaluation studies are carried out for a hypothetical autonomous hybrid power system located in Jaisalmer, Rajasthan, India. The impact of considering battery charging efficiency as a function of state of charge is compared against the assumption of fixed battery charging efficiency for three different configurations comprising of wind-storage, solar-storage and wind-solar-storage.

Keywords: Battery Storage, Charging efficiency, Fuzzy Logic, Hybrid Power System, Reliability

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Authors: Phruksaphanrat B.

Abstract:

This research presents a fuzzy multi-objective model for a machine selection problem in a flexible manufacturing system of a tire company. Two main objectives are minimization of an average machine error and minimization of the total setup time. Conventionally, the working team uses trial and error in selecting a pressing machine for each task due to the complexity and constraints of the problem. So, both objectives may not satisfy. Moreover, trial and error takes a lot of time to get the final decision. Therefore, in this research preemptive fuzzy goal programming model is developed for solving this multi-objective problem. The proposed model can obtain the appropriate results that the Decision Making (DM) is satisfied for both objectives. Besides, alternative choice can be easily generated by varying the satisfaction level. Additionally, decision time can be reduced by using the model, which includes all constraints of the system to generate the solutions. A numerical example is also illustrated to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Machine Selection, Preemptive Fuzzy Goal Programming, Mixed Integer Programming, Application of Tire Industry.

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Authors: Nasser Shamskia, Seyyed Habib Rahmati, Hassan Haleh , Seyyedeh Hoda Rahmati

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The main criteria of designing in the most hydraulic constructions essentially are based on runoff or discharge of water. Two of those important criteria are runoff and return period. Mostly, these measures are calculated or estimated by stochastic data. Another feature in hydrological data is their impreciseness. Therefore, in order to deal with uncertainty and impreciseness, based on Buckley-s estimation method, a new fuzzy method of evaluating hydrological measures are developed. The method introduces triangular shape fuzzy numbers for different measures in which both of the uncertainty and impreciseness concepts are considered. Besides, since another important consideration in most of the hydrological studies is comparison of a measure during different months or years, a new fuzzy method which is consistent with special form of proposed fuzzy numbers, is also developed. Finally, to illustrate the methods more explicitly, the two algorithms are tested on one simple example and a real case study.

Keywords: Fuzzy Discharge, Fuzzy estimation, Fuzzy ranking method, Hydrological data

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Authors: Hakan Işık, Esra Saraçoğlu

Abstract:

In this study, a comparison of two control methods, Proportional Control (PC) and Fuzzy Logic Control (FLC), which have been used to develop an ideal thermoelectric renal hypothermia system in order to use in renal surgery, has been carried out. Since the most important issues in long-lasting parenchymatous renal surgery are to provide an operation medium free of blood and to prevent renal dysfunction in the postoperative period, control of the temperature has become very important in renal surgery. The final product is seriously affected from the changes in temperature, therefore, it is necessary to reach some desired temperature points quickly and avoid large overshoot. PIC16F877 microcontroller has been used as controller for both of these two methods. Each control method can simply ensure extra renal hypothermia in the targeted way. But investigation of advantages and disadvantages of every control method to each other is aimed and carried out by the experimental implementations. Shortly, investigation of the most appropriate method to use for development of system and that can be applied to people safely in the future, has been performed. In this sense, experimental results show that fuzzy logic control gives out more reliable responses and efficient performance.

Keywords: renal hypothermia, renal cooling, temperature control, proportional control fuzzy logic control

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Authors: George E. Tsekouras, Dimitris Papageorgiou, Sotiris Kotsiantis, Christos Kalloniatis, Panagiotis Pintelas

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We develop a three-step fuzzy logic-based algorithm for clustering categorical attributes, and we apply it to analyze cultural data. In the first step the algorithm employs an entropy-based clustering scheme, which initializes the cluster centers. In the second step we apply the fuzzy c-modes algorithm to obtain a fuzzy partition of the data set, and the third step introduces a novel cluster validity index, which decides the final number of clusters.

Keywords: Categorical data, cultural data, fuzzy logic clustering, fuzzy c-modes, cluster validity index.

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Authors: Arian Bahrami, Mojtaba Tafaoli-Masoule, Mansour Nikkhah Bahrami

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This paper demonstrates the potential of applying PD-like fuzzy logic controller for active vibration control of piezoelectric Stewart platforms. Through simulation, the control authority of the piezo stack actuators for effectively damping the Stewart platform vibration can be evaluated for further implementation of the system. Each leg of the piezoelectric Stewart platform consists of a linear piezo stack actuator, a collocated velocity sensor, a collocated displacement sensor and flexible tips for the connections with the two end plates. The piezoelectric stack is modeled as a bar element and the electro-mechanical coupling property is simulated using Matlab/Simulink software. Then, the open loop and closed loop dynamic responses are performed for the system to characterize the effect of the control on the vibration of the piezoelectric Stewart platform. A significant improvement in the damping of the structure can be observed by using the PD-like fuzzy controller.

Keywords: Active vibration control, Fuzzy controller, Piezoelectric stewart platform.

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Authors: Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

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In the last 15 years, a number of methods have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Most of the fuzzy time series methods are presented for forecasting of enrollments at the University of Alabama. However, the forecasting accuracy rates of the existing methods are not good enough. In this paper, we compared our proposed new method of fuzzy time series forecasting with existing methods. Our method is based on frequency density based partitioning of the historical enrollment data. The proposed method belongs to the kth order and time-variant methods. The proposed method can get the best forecasting accuracy rate for forecasting enrollments than the existing methods.

Keywords: Fuzzy logical groups, fuzzified enrollments, fuzzysets, fuzzy time series.

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Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

Abstract:

Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: Calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safe navigation of ships.

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Authors: Liew Siaw Yee, Tahir Ahmad

Abstract:

In this paper, the Fuzzy Autocatalytic Set (FACS) is composed into Omega Algebra by embedding the membership value of fuzzy edge connectivity using the property of transitive affinity. Then, the Omega Algebra of FACS is a transformation semigroup which is a special class of semigroup is shown.

Keywords: Fuzzy autocatalytic set, omega algebra, semigroup, transformation semigroup.

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Authors: Jamel Khedri, Mohamed Chaabane, Mansour Souissi, Driss Mehdi

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This paper deals with the synthesis of fuzzy controller applied to a permanent magnet synchronous machine (PMSM) with a guaranteed H∞ performance. To design this fuzzy controller, nonlinear model of the PMSM is approximated by Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model (T-S fuzzy model), then the so-called parallel distributed compensation (PDC) is employed. Next, we derive the property of the H∞ norm. The latter is cast in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMI-s) while minimizing the H∞ norm of the transfer function between the disturbance and the error ( ) ev T . The experimental and simulations results were conducted on a permanent magnet synchronous machine to illustrate the effects of the fuzzy modelling and the controller design via the PDC.

Keywords: Feedback controller, Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model, Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI), PMSM, H∞ performance.

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Authors: A. A. Jafari, A. M. Khoshnood, J. Roshanian

Abstract:

Attitude control of aerospace system with liquid containers may face to a problem associate with fuel sloshing. The sloshing phenomena can degrade the stability of control system and in the worst case, interaction between the attitude control system and fuel vibration leading to resonance. In this paper, a full process of nonlinear dynamic modeling of an aerospace launch vehicle with fuel sloshing is given. Then, a new control system based on model reference adaptive filter is proposed and its algorithm is extracted. This controller implemented on the main attitude control system. Finally, numerical simulation of nonlinear model and control system is carried out to examine the performance of the new controller. Results of simulations show that the inconvenient effects of the fuel sloshing by augmenting this control system are reduced and attitude control system performs, satisfactorily.

Keywords: nonlinear dynamic modeling, fuel sloshing, vibration control, model reference, adaptive filter

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Authors: Panpan Xu, Shulin Sui

Abstract:

The crossover probability and mutation probability are the two important factors in genetic algorithm. The adaptive genetic algorithm can improve the convergence performance of genetic algorithm, in which the crossover probability and mutation probability are adaptively designed with the changes of fitness value. We apply adaptive genetic algorithm into a function optimization problem. The numerical experiment represents that adaptive genetic algorithm improves the convergence speed and avoids local convergence.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, Adaptive genetic algorithm, Function optimization.

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Authors: Mahmood Reza Shakarami, Reza Sedaghati

Abstract:

Recently, distributed generation technologies have received much attention for the potential energy savings and reliability assurances that might be achieved as a result of their widespread adoption. The distribution feeder reconfiguration (DFR) is one of the most important control schemes in the distribution networks, which can be affected by DGs. This paper presents a new approach to DFR at the distribution networks considering wind turbines. The main objective of the DFR is to minimize the deviation of the bus voltage. Since the DFR is a nonlinear optimization problem, we apply the Adaptive Modified Firefly Optimization (AMFO) approach to solve it. As a result of the conflicting behavior of the single- objective function, a fuzzy based clustering technique is employed to reach the set of optimal solutions called Pareto solutions. The approach is tested on the IEEE 32-bus standard test system.

Keywords: Adaptive Modified Firefly Optimization (AMFO), Pareto solutions, feeder reconfiguration, wind turbines, bus voltage.

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Authors: Jožef Ritonja, Bojan Grčar, Boštjan Polajžer

Abstract:

In recent years, electricity trade between neighboring countries has become increasingly intense. Increasing power transmission over long distances has resulted in an increase in the oscillations of the transmitted power. The damping of the oscillations can be carried out with the reconfiguration of the network or the replacement of generators, but such solution is not economically reasonable. The only cost-effective solution to improve the damping of power oscillations is to use power system stabilizers. Power system stabilizer represents a part of synchronous generator control system. It utilizes semiconductor’s excitation system connected to the rotor field excitation winding to increase the damping of the power system. The majority of the synchronous generators are equipped with the conventional power system stabilizers with fixed parameters. The control structure of the conventional power system stabilizers and the tuning procedure are based on the linear control theory. Conventional power system stabilizers are simple to realize, but they show non-sufficient damping improvement in the entire operating conditions. This is the reason that advanced control theories are used for development of better power system stabilizers. In this paper, the adaptive control theory for power system stabilizers design and synthesis is studied. The presented work is focused on the use of model reference adaptive control approach. Control signal, which assures that the controlled plant output will follow the reference model output, is generated by the adaptive algorithm. Adaptive gains are obtained as a combination of the "proportional" term and with the σ-term extended "integral" term. The σ-term is introduced to avoid divergence of the integral gains. The necessary condition for asymptotic tracking is derived by means of hyperstability theory. The benefits of the proposed model reference adaptive power system stabilizer were evaluated as objectively as possible by means of a theoretical analysis, numerical simulations and laboratory realizations. Damping of the synchronous generator oscillations in the entire operating range was investigated. Obtained results show the improved damping in the entire operating area and the increase of the power system stability. The results of the presented work will help by the development of the model reference power system stabilizer which should be able to replace the conventional stabilizers in power systems.

Keywords: Power system, stability, oscillations, power system stabilizer, model reference adaptive control.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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