Search results for: power system simulation

Authors: Othman Maklouf, Abdurazag Ghila, Ahmed Abdulla, Ameer Yousef

Abstract:

Land vehicle navigation system technology is a subject of great interest today. Global Positioning System (GPS) is a common choice for positioning in such systems. However, GPS alone is incapable of providing continuous and reliable positioning, because of its inherent dependency on external electromagnetic signals. Inertial Navigation is the implementation of inertial sensors to determine the position and orientation of a vehicle. As such, inertial navigation has unbounded error growth since the error accumulates at each step. Thus in order to contain these errors some form of external aiding is required. The availability of low cost Micro-Electro-Mechanical-System (MEMS) inertial sensors is now making it feasible to develop Inertial Navigation System (INS) using an inertial measurement unit (IMU), in conjunction with GPS to fulfill the demands of such systems. Typically IMU’s are very expensive systems; however this INS will use “low cost” components. Unfortunately with low cost also comes low performance and is the main reason for the inclusion of GPS and Kalman filtering into the system. The aim of this paper is to develop a GPS/MEMS INS integrated system, which is able to provide a navigation solution with accuracy levels appropriate for land vehicle navigation. The primary piece of equipment used was a MEMS-based Crista IMU (from Cloud Cap Technology Inc.) and a Garmin GPS 18 PC (which is both a receiver and antenna). The integration of GPS with INS can be implemented using a Kalman filter in loosely coupled mode. In this integration mode the INS error states, together with any navigation state (position, velocity, and attitude) and other unknown parameters of interest, are estimated using GPS measurements. All important equations regarding navigation are presented along with discussion.

Keywords: GPS, IMU, Kalman Filter.

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Authors: Hechmi Saidi, Noureddine Hamdi

Abstract:

The performance of hybrid amplify and forward - decode and forward (AF-DF) hybrid radio frequency/free space optical (RF/FSO) communication system, that adopts M-ary pulse position modulation (MPPM) techniques, is analyzed. Both exact and approximate symbol-error rates (SERs) are derived. The random variations of the received optical irradiance, produced by the atmospheric turbulence, is modeled by the gamma-gamma (GG) statistical distribution. A closed-form expression for the probability density function (PDF) is derived for the whole above system is obtained. Thanks to the use of hybrid AF-DF hybrid RF/FSO configuration and MPPM, the effects of atmospheric turbulence is mitigated; hence the capacity of combating atmospheric turbulence and the transmissitted signal quality are improved.

Keywords: FSO, RF, hybrid, AF, DF, SER, SNR, GG channel.

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Authors: D. H. Kim, Y. H. Kim, T. Kim

Abstract:

A new method identifies coupled fluid-structure system with a reduced set of state variables is presented. Assuming that the structural model is known a priori either from an analysis or a test and using linear transformations between structural and aeroelastic states, it is possible to deduce aerodynamic information from sampled time histories of the aeroelastic system. More specifically given a finite set of structural modes the method extracts generalized aerodynamic force matrix corresponding to these mode shapes. Once the aerodynamic forces are known, an aeroelastic reduced-order model can be constructed in discrete-time, state-space format by coupling the structural model and the aerodynamic system. The resulting reduced-order model is suitable for constant Mach, varying density analysis.

Keywords: ROM (Reduced-Order Model), aero elasticity, AGARD 445.6 wing.

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Authors: K. Vinoth Kumar, M.P. Selvan

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This paper presents a simple approach for load flow analysis of a radial distribution network. The proposed approach utilizes forward and backward sweep algorithm based on Kirchoff-s current law (KCL) and Kirchoff-s voltage law (KVL) for evaluating the node voltages iteratively. In this approach, computation of branch current depends only on the current injected at the neighbouring node and the current in the adjacent branch. This approach starts from the end nodes of sub lateral line, lateral line and main line and moves towards the root node during branch current computation. The node voltage evaluation begins from the root node and moves towards the nodes located at the far end of the main, lateral and sub lateral lines. The proposed approach has been tested using four radial distribution systems of different size and configuration and found to be computationally efficient.

Keywords: constant current load, constant impedance load, constant power load, forward–backward sweep, load flow analysis, radial distribution system.

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Authors: Lianglin Xiong, Yun Zhao, Tao Jiang

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In this paper, we study the stability of n-dimensional linear fractional neutral differential equation with time delays. By using the Laplace transform, we introduce a characteristic equation for the above system with multiple time delays. We discover that if all roots of the characteristic equation have negative parts, then the equilibrium of the above linear system with fractional order is Lyapunov globally asymptotical stable if the equilibrium exist that is almost the same as that of classical differential equations. An example is provided to show the effectiveness of the approach presented in this paper.

Keywords: Fractional neutral differential equation, Laplace transform, characteristic equation.

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Authors: Mu-Yen Chen, Min-Hsuan Fan, Chia-Chen Chen, Siang-Yu Jhong

Abstract:

In recent years, real estate prediction or valuation has been a topic of discussion in many developed countries. Improper hype created by investors leads to fluctuating prices of real estate, affecting many consumers to purchase their own homes. Therefore, scholars from various countries have conducted research in real estate valuation and prediction. With the back-propagation neural network that has been popular in recent years and the orthogonal array in the Taguchi method, this study aimed to find the optimal parameter combination at different levels of orthogonal array after the system presented different parameter combinations, so that the artificial neural network obtained the most accurate results. The experimental results also demonstrated that the method presented in the study had a better result than traditional machine learning. Finally, it also showed that the model proposed in this study had the optimal predictive effect, and could significantly reduce the cost of time in simulation operation. The best predictive results could be found with a fewer number of experiments more efficiently. Thus users could predict a real estate transaction price that is not far from the current actual prices.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Taguchi Method, Real Estate Valuation Model.

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Authors: Michael A. Folcik, Bijan Karimi

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A robot simulator was developed to measure and investigate the performance of a robot navigation system based on the relative position of the robot with respect to random obstacles in any two dimensional environment. The presented simulator focuses on investigating the ability of a fuzzy-neural system for object avoidance. A navigation algorithm is proposed and used to allow random navigation of a robot among obstacles when the robot faces an obstacle in the environment. The main features of this simulator can be used for evaluating the performance of any system that can provide the position of the robot with respect to obstacles in the environment. This allows a robot developer to investigate and analyze the performance of a robot without implementing the physical robot.

Keywords: Applications of Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networksin Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Embedded Systems, MobileRobots, Robot Navigation, Robotics.

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Authors: Hassan Zohoor, Zaeem M. Moosavi

Abstract:

The intermittent nature of solar energy and the energy requirements of buildings necessitate the storage of thermal energy. In this paper a hybrid system of storing solar energy has been analyzed. Adding a LHS medium to a commercial solar water heater, the required energy for heating a small room was obtained in addition to preparing hot water. In other words, the suggested hybrid storage system consists of two tanks: a water tank as a SHS medium; and a paraffin tank as a LHS medium. A computing program was used to find the optimized time schedule of charging the storage tanks during each day, according to the solar radiation conditions. The results show that the use of such system can improve the capability of energy gathering comparing to the individual water storage tank during the cold months of the year. Of course, because of the solar radiation angles and shorten daylight in December & January, the performance will be the same as the simple solar water heaters (in the northern hemisphere). But the extra energy stored in November, February, March & April, can be useful for heating a small room for 3 hours during the cold days.

Keywords: Hybrid, Optimization, Solar thermal energy, Storage.

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Authors: Vitalice K. Oduol, C. Ardil

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The paper shows that in the analysis of a queuing system with fixed-size batch arrivals, there emerges a set of polynomials which are a generalization of Chebyshev polynomials of the second kind. The paper uses these polynomials in assessing the transient behaviour of the overflow (equivalently call blocking) probability in the system. A key figure to note is the proportion of the overflow (or blocking) probability resident in the transient component, which is shown in the results to be more significant at the beginning of the transient and naturally decays to zero in the limit of large t. The results also show that the significance of transients is more pronounced in cases of lighter loads, but lasts longer for heavier loads.

Keywords: batch arrivals, blocking probability, generalizedChebyshev polynomials, overflow probability, queue transientanalysis

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Authors: Nishanth Murugan, Mohammed Niyasdeen Nejaamtheen, S. Sounder Rajan

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The accelerated growth in aircraft industries desire effectual schemes, programs, innovative designs of advanced systems to accomplishing the augmenting need for home-free air transportation. In this paper, a contemporary conceptual design of an airplane has been proposed without landing gear systems in order to reducing accidents, time consumption, and to eliminating drawbacks by using superconducting levitation phenomenon. This invention of an airplane with superconductive material coating, on the solar plexus region assist to reduce weight by approximately 4% of the total takeoff weight, and cost effective. Moreover, we conjectured that superconductor landing system reduces ground friction, mission fuel, total drag, take-off and landing distance.

Keywords: Aircraft landing system, Magnetic levitation, Superconductors, Take-off and landing.

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Authors: Yang-Keun Ahn, Min-Wook Kim, Young-Choong Park, Kwang-Soon Choi, Woo-Chool Park, Hae-Moon Seo, Kwang-Mo Jung

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Active research is underway on virtual touch screens that complement the physical limitations of conventional touch screens. This paper discusses a virtual touch screen that uses a multi-layer perceptron to recognize and control three-dimensional (3D) depth information from a time of flight (TOF) camera. This system extracts an object-s area from the image input and compares it with the trajectory of the object, which is learned in advance, to recognize gestures. The system enables the maneuvering of content in virtual space by utilizing human actions.

Keywords: Gesture Recognition, Depth Sensor, Virtual Touch Screen

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Authors: Edward Guillén, Jhordany Rodriguez, Rafael Páez

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Anomaly detection techniques have been focused on two main components: data extraction and selection and the second one is the analysis performed over the obtained data. The goal of this paper is to analyze the influence that each of these components has over the system performance by evaluating detection over network scenarios with different setups. The independent variables are as follows: the number of system inputs, the way the inputs are codified and the complexity of the analysis techniques. For the analysis, some approaches of artificial neural networks are implemented with different number of layers. The obtained results show the influence that each of these variables has in the system performance.

Keywords: Network Intrusion Detection, Machine learning, Artificial Neural Network.

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Authors: Dini Dewi Heniarti

Abstract:

The importance of this study is to understand how Indonesian military court asserts its jurisdiction over military members who commit general crimes within the Indonesian military judiciary system in comparison to other countries. This research employs a normative-juridical approach in combination with historical and comparative-juridical approaches. The research specification is analytical-descriptive in nature, i.e. describing or outlining the principles, basic concepts, and norms related to military judiciary system, which are further analyzed within the context of implementation and as the inputs for military justice regulation under the Indonesian legal system. Main data used in this research are secondary data, including primary, secondary and tertiary legal sources. The research focuses on secondary data, while primary data are supplementary in nature. The validity of data is checked using multi-methods commonly known as triangulation, i.e. to reflect the efforts to gain an in-depth understanding of phenomena being studied. Here, the military element is kept intact in the judiciary process with due observance of the Military Criminal Justice System and the Military Command Development Principle. The Indonesian military judiciary jurisdiction over military members committing general crimes is based on national legal system and global development while taking into account the structure, composition and position of military forces within the state structure. Jurisdiction is formulated by setting forth the substantive norm of crimes that are military in nature. At the level of adjudication jurisdiction, the military court has a jurisdiction to adjudicate military personnel who commit general offences. At the level of execution jurisdiction, the military court has a jurisdiction to execute the sentence against military members who have been convicted with a final and binding judgement. Military court's jurisdiction needs to be expanded when the country is in the state of war.

Keywords: Military courts, Jurisdiction, Military members, Military justice system.

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Authors: Muqdad Al-Juboori, Bithin Datta

Abstract:

Hydraulic structures such as gravity dams are classified as essential structures, and have the vital role in providing strong and safe water resource management. Three major aspects must be considered to achieve an effective design of such a structure: 1) The building cost, 2) safety, and 3) accurate analysis of seepage characteristics. Due to the complexity and non-linearity relationships of the seepage process, many approximation theories have been developed; however, the application of these theories results in noticeable errors. The analytical solution, which includes the difficult conformal mapping procedure, could be applied for a simple and symmetrical problem only. Therefore, the objectives of this paper are to: 1) develop a surrogate model based on numerical simulated data using SEEPW software to approximately simulate seepage process related to a hydraulic structure, 2) develop and solve a linked simulation-optimization model based on the developed surrogate model to describe the seepage occurring under a concrete gravity dam, in order to obtain optimum and safe design at minimum cost. The result shows that the linked simulation-optimization model provides an efficient and optimum design of concrete gravity dams.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, concrete gravity dam, genetic algorithm, seepage analysis.

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Authors: Norihiro Nishio, Yuki Deguchi, Takahiro Sugiyama, Yoichi Takebayashi

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We developed a multi-camera control system that a (one) cameraman can operate several cameras at a compact studio. we analyzed a workflow of a cameraman of some program shootings with two cameras and clarified their heavy tasks. The system based on a dynamic workflow which adapts a program progressing and recommends of cameraman. we perform the automation of multicamera controls by modeling of studio environment and perform automatic camera adjustment for suitable angle of view with face detection. Our experiment at a real program shooting showed that one cameraman can carry out the task of shooting sufficiently.

Keywords: Camera work, compact studio, dynamic workflow, shooting support.

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Authors: Saman M. Siddiqui, Fang Jiancheng

Abstract:

Robust nonlinear integrated navigation of GPS and low cost MEMS is a hot topic of research these days. A robust filter is required to cope up with the problem of unpredictable discontinuities and colored noises associated with low cost sensors. H∞ filter is previously used in Extended Kalman filter and Unscented Kalman filter frame. Unscented Kalman filter has a problem of Cholesky matrix factorization at each step which is a very unstable operation. To avoid this problem in this research H∞ filter is designed in Square root Unscented filter framework and found 50% more robust towards increased level of colored noises.

Keywords: H∞ filter, MEMS, GPS, Nonlinear system, robust system, Square root unscented filter.

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Authors: Ibrahim Cil, Onur Kurtcu, H. Ibrahim Demir, Furkan Yener, Yusuf. S. Turkan, Muharrem Unver, Ramazan Evren

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Fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method is decision-making way at the end of integrating the current AHP method with fuzzy structure. In this study, the processes of production planning, inventory management and purchasing department of a system were analysed and were requested to decide the performance criteria of each area. At this point, the current work processes were analysed by various decision-makers and comparing each criteria by giving points according to 1-9 scale were completed. The criteria were listed in order to their weights by using Fuzzy AHP approach and top three performance criteria of each department were determined. After that, the performance criteria of supply chain consisting of three departments were asked to determine. The processes of each department were compared by decision-makers at the point of building the supply chain performance system and getting the performance criteria. According to the results, the criteria of performance system of supply chain by using Fuzzy AHP were determined for which will be used in the supply chain performance system in the future.

Keywords: AHP, fuzzy, performance evaluation, supply chain.

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Authors: Sera Syarmila Sameon, Rohaini Ramli

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A trustworthy voting process in democratic is important that each vote is recorded with accuracy and impartiality. The accuracy and impartiality are tallied in high rate with biometric system. One of the sign is a fingerprint. Fingerprint recognition is still a challenging problem, because of the distortions among the different impression of the same finger. Because of the trustworthy of biometric voting technologies, it may give a great effect on numbers of voter-s participation and outcomes of the democratic process. Hence in this study, the authors are interested in designing and analyzing the Electronic Voting System and the participation of the users. The system is based on the fingerprint minutiae with the addition of person ID number. This is in order to enhance the accuracy and speed of the voting process. The new design is analyzed by conducting pilot election among a class of students for selecting their representative.

Keywords: Biometric, FAR and FRR, democratic, voting

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Authors: Shigenori Togashi, Kei Takenaka

Abstract:

We developed new processes which can collect and detect rapidly airborne pathogens such as the avian flu virus for the pandemic prevention. The fluorescence antibody technique is known as one of high-sensitive detection methods for viruses, but this needs up to a few hours to bind sufficient fluorescence dyes to viruses for detection. In this paper, we developed a mist-labeling can detect substitution viruses in a short time to improve the binding rate of fluorescent dyes and substitution viruses by the micro reaction process. Moreover, we developed the rapid detection system with the above “mist labeling”. The detection system set with a sampling bag collecting patient’s breath and a cartridge can detect automatically pathogens within 10 minutes.

Keywords: Viruses, Sampler, Mist, Detection, Fluorescent dyes, Microreaction.

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Authors: Phongsak Phakamach

Abstract:

A DC servomotor position control system using a Fuzzy Logic Sliding mode Model Following Control or FLSMFC approach is presented. The FLSMFC structure consists of an integrator and variable structure system. The integral control is introduced into it in order to eliminated steady state error due to step and ramp command inputs and improve control precision, while the fuzzy control would maintain the insensitivity to parameter variation and disturbances. The FLSMFC strategy is implemented and applied to a position control of a DC servomotor drives. Experimental results indicated that FLSMFC system performance with respect to the sensitivity to parameter variations is greatly reduced. Also, excellent control effects and avoids the chattering phenomenon.

Keywords: Sliding mode model following control, fuzzy logic, DC servomotor.

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Authors: Yi-Ting Liu, Pei-Ying Wen

Abstract:

In order to improve the overall safety of chemotherapy, safety-protecting netwas established for the whole process from prescribing by physicians, transcribing by nurses, dispensing by pharmacists to administering by nurses. The information system was used to check and monitorwhole process of administration and related sheets were computerized to simplify the paperwork.

Keywords: Chemotherapy, Bar Code Medication Administration (BCMA), Medication Safety.

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Authors: Nadiah Yola Putri, Nesia Putri Sharfina, Traviata Prakarti

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This paper is a literature review presented descriptively to review the concept of green building to face the challenge of sustainable development and food in urban areas. In this paper, researchers initiated the concept of green building with sky farming method. Sky farming use vertical landscape system in order to realizing food self-sufficient green city. Sky farming relying on plantings and irrigation system efficiency in the building which is adopted the principles of green building. Planting system is done by applying hydroponic plants with Nutrient Film Technique (NFT) using energy source of solar cell and grey water from the processing of waste treatment plant. The application of sky farming in urban areas can be a recommendation for the design of environmental-friendly construction. In order to keep the land and distance efficiency, this system is a futuristic idea that would be the connector of human civilization in the future.

Keywords: Green building, urban area, sky farming, vertical landscape.

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Authors: Aleš Florian, Lenka Ševelová

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Complex sensitivity analysis of stresses in a concrete slab of the real type of rigid pavement made from recycled materials is performed. The computational model of the pavement is designed as a spatial (3D) model, is based on a nonlinear variant of the finite element method that respects the structural nonlinearity, enables to model different arrangements of joints, and the entire model can be loaded by the thermal load. Interaction of adjacent slabs in joints and contact of the slab and the subsequent layer are modeled with the help of special contact elements. Four concrete slabs separated by transverse and longitudinal joints and the additional structural layers and soil to the depth of about 3m are modeled. The thickness of individual layers, physical and mechanical properties of materials, characteristics of joints, and the temperature of the upper and lower surface of slabs are supposed to be random variables. The modern simulation technique Updated Latin Hypercube Sampling with 20 simulations is used. For sensitivity analysis the sensitivity coefficient based on the Spearman rank correlation coefficient is utilized. As a result, the estimates of influence of random variability of individual input variables on the random variability of principal stresses s1 and s3 in 53 points on the upper and lower surface of the concrete slabs are obtained.

Keywords: Concrete, FEM, pavement, sensitivity, simulation.

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Authors: Aishwarya Ravichandra, Kirtana Kirtivasan, Adithi Mahesh, Ashwini S.Savanth

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A Non-Contact Digital Music System has been conceptualized and implemented to create a new era of digital music. This system replaces the strings of a traditional stringed instrument with laser beams to avoid bruising of the user’s hand. The system consists of seven laser modules, detector modules and distance sensors that form the basic hardware blocks of this instrument. Arduino ATmega2560 microcontroller is used as the primary interface between the hardware and the software. MIDI (Musical Instrument Digital Interface) is used as the protocol to establish communication between the instrument and the virtual synthesizer software.

Keywords: Arduino, Detector, Laser, MIDI, NOTE ON, NOTE OFF, PITCH BEND, Sharp IR distance sensor.

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Authors: H. Ifassiouen, H. Medromi, N. E. Radhy

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In this paper, we present the recently implemented approach allowing dynamics systems to plan its actions, taking into account the environment perception changes, and to control their execution when uncertainty and incomplete knowledge are the major characteristics of the situated environment [1],[2],[3],[4]. The control distributed architecture has three modules and the approach is related to hierarchical planning: the plan produced by the planner is further refined at the control layer that in turn supervises its execution by a functional level. We propose a new intelligent distributed architecture constituted by: Multi-Agent subsystem of the sensor, of the interpretation and representation of environment [9], of the dynamic localization and of the action. We tested this distributed architecture with dynamic system in the known environment. The autonomous for Rotor Mini Rotorcraft task is described by the primitive actions. The distributed controlbased on multi-agent system is in charge of achieving each task in the best possible way taking into account the context and sensory feedback.

Keywords: Autonomous four rotors helicopter, Control system, Hierarchical planning, Intelligent Distributed Architecture.

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Authors: Dinesh Khandujaa, Pardeep Kumar Sharma

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Education, as the most important resource in any country, has multiplying effects on all facets of development in a society. The new social realities, particularly the interplay between democratization of education; unprecedented developments in IT sector; emergence of knowledge society, liberalization of economy and globalization have greatly influenced the educational process of all nations. This turbulence entails upon education to undergo dramatic changes to keep up with the new expectations. Growth of entrepreneurship among Indian women is highly important for empowering them and this is highly essential for socio-economic development of a society. Unfortunately in India there is poor acceptance of entrepreneurship among women as unfounded myths and fears restrain them to be enterprising. To remove these inhibitions, education system needs to be re-engineered to make entrepreneurship more acceptable. This paper empirically analyses the results of a survey done on around 500 female graduates in North India to measure and evaluate various entrepreneurial traits present in them. A formative model has been devised in this context, which should improve the teaching-learning process in our education system, which can lead to sustainable growth of women entrepreneurship in India.

Keywords: Women Empowerment, Entrepreneurship, Education System, Women Entrepreneurship, Sustainable Development.

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Authors: Dawei Wang, Rujing Wang, Ying Li, Baozi Wei

Abstract:

FAQ system can make user find answer to the problem that puzzles them. But now the research on Chinese FAQ system is still on the theoretical stage. This paper presents an approach to semantic inference for FAQ mining. To enhance the efficiency, a small pool of the candidate question-answering pairs retrieved from the system for the follow-up work according to the concept of the agriculture domain extracted from user input .Input queries or questions are converted into four parts, the question word segment (QWS), the verb segment (VS), the concept of agricultural areas segment (CS), the auxiliary segment (AS). A semantic matching method is presented to estimate the similarity between the semantic segments of the query and the questions in the pool of the candidate. A thesaurus constructed from the HowNet, a Chinese knowledge base, is adopted for word similarity measure in the matcher. The questions are classified into eleven intension categories using predefined question stemming keywords. For FAQ mining, given a query, the question part and answer part in an FAQ question-answer pair is matched with the input query, respectively. Finally, the probabilities estimated from these two parts are integrated and used to choose the most likely answer for the input query. These approaches are experimented on an agriculture FAQ system. Experimental results indicate that the proposed approach outperformed the FAQ-Finder system in agriculture FAQ retrieval.

Keywords: FAQ, Semantic Inference, Ontology.

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Authors: Qianhong Zhang, Wenzhuan Zhang

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with the global asymptotic behavior of positive solution for a system of two nonlinear rational difference equations. Moreover, some numerical examples are given to illustrate results obtained.

Keywords: Difference equations, stability, unstable, global asymptotic behavior.

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Authors: Nasser Alalwan, Ahmed Alzahrani, Mohamed Sarrab

Abstract:

The technology usages of high speed Internet leads to establish and start new era of online education. With the advancement of the information technology and communication systems new opportunities have been created. This leads universities to have various online education channels to meet the demand of different learners- needs. One of these channels is M-learning, which can be used to improve the online education environment. With using such mobile technology in learning both students and instructors can easily access educational courses anytime from anywhere. The paper first presents literature about mobile learning and to what extent this approach can be utilized to enhance the overall learning system. It provides a comparison between mobile learning and traditional elearning showing the wide array of benefits of the new generation of technology. The possible challenges and potential advantages of Mlearning in the online education system are also discussed.

Keywords: Mobile learning, M-learning, eLearning, Educational system.

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the two-stage model.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy.

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