Search results for: technological forecasting.

Authors: Rajkumar Samanta, Abhishek Pal

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The demand of high quality services has fueled dimensional research and development in wireless communications and networking. As a result, different wireless technologies like Wireless LAN, CDMA, GSM, UMTS, MANET, Bluetooth and satellite networks etc. have emerged in the last two decades. Future networks capable of carrying multimedia traffic need IP convergence, portability, seamless roaming and scalability among the existing networking technologies without changing the core part of the existing communications networks. To fulfill these goals, the present networking systems are required to work in cooperation to ensure technological independence, seamless roaming, high security and authentication, guaranteed Quality of Services (QoS). In this paper, a conceptual framework for a cooperative network (CN) is proposed for integration of heterogeneous existing networks to meet out the requirements of the next generation wireless networks.

Keywords: Cooperative Network, Wireless Network, Integration.

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Authors: Zh.Mingaleva, K.Balkova

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Innovations and innovative activity get the increasing value for successful financial and economic activity of the countries and regions. The level of innovative sphere development determines place of a country or a region in world economy and forms a basis of steady economic growth. This article is devoted to different aspects of organization of the national economic safety in the conditions of innovative development, its problems, risks and threats. Economy can be considered as aspiring for transition to innovative way only with finding of economic safety: financial independence, power stability and technological progress. There are statistical indicators, defining the level of economic security and factors, threatening economic safety of the state. The research is based on the analysis of factors and indicators in conditions of innovative development. The paper is illustrated by the examples of possible estimated system of the economic safety level.

Keywords: Economic safety, innovative activity, innovative development, innovative economy

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Authors: Asish O. Mathew, Lewlyn L. R. Rodrigues

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The organizations in the knowledge economy era have recognized the importance of building knowledge assets for sustainable growth and development. In comparison to other industries, Information Technology (IT) enterprises, holds an edge in developing an effective Knowledge Management (KM) programmethanks to their in-house technological abilities. This paper tries to study the various knowledge based incentive programmes and its effect on Knowledge Sharing and Learning in the context of the Indian IT sector. A conceptual model is developed linking KM Incentives, Knowledge Sharing and Learning. A questionnaire study is conducted to collect primary data from the knowledge workers of the IT organizations located in India. The data was analysed using Structural Equation Modeling using Partial Least Square method. The results show a strong influence of knowledge management incentives on knowledge sharing and an indirect influence on learning.

Keywords: Knowledge Management, Knowledge Management Incentives, Knowledge Sharing, Learning.

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Authors: J. M. Breed, E. Taylor

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In this paper challenges associated with a new generation of Computer Science students are examined. The mode of education in tertiary institutes has progressed slowly while the needs of students have changed rapidly in an increasingly technological world. The major learning paradigms and learning theories within these paradigms are studied to find a suitable strategy for educating modern students. These paradigms include Behaviourism, Constructivism, Humanism and Cogntivism. Social Learning theory and Elaboration theory are two theories that are further examined and a survey is done to determine how these strategies will be received by students. The results and findings are evaluated and indicate that students are fairly receptive to a method that incorporates both Social Learning theory and Elaboration theory, but that some aspects of all paradigms need to be implemented to create a balanced and effective strategy with technology as foundation.

Keywords: Computer Science, Education, Elaboration Theory, Learning Paradigms, Social Learning Theory.

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Authors: Rachel Baruch

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This article describes the implementation of an experimental model for teaching ICT tools and digital environments in teachers training college. In most educational systems in the Western world, new programs were developed in order to bridge the digital gap between teachers and students. In spite of their achievements, these programs are limited due to several factors: The teachers in the schools implement new methods incorporating technological tools into the curriculum, but meanwhile the technology changes and advances. The interface of tools changes frequently, some tools disappear and new ones are invented. These conditions require an experimental model of training the pre-service teachers. The appropriate method for instruction within the domain of ICT tools should be based on exposing the learners to innovations, helping them to gain experience, teaching them how to deal with challenges and difficulties on their own, and training them. This study suggests some principles for this approach and describes step by step the implementation of this model.

Keywords: ICT tools, e-learning, pre-service teachers.

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Authors: M. Chňapek, M. Tomka, R. Peroutková, Z. Gálová

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Processes of plant breeding, testing and licensing of new varieties, patent protection in seed production, relations in trade and protection of copyright are dependent on identification, differentiation and characterization of plant genotypes. Therefore, we focused our research on utilization of wheat storage proteins as genetic markers suitable not only for differentiation of individual genotypes, but also for identification and characterization of their considerable properties. We analyzed a collection of 102 genotypes of bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), 41 genotypes of spelt wheat (Triticum spelta L.), and 35 genotypes of durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.), in this study. Our results show, that genotypes of bread wheat and durum wheat were homogenous and single line, but spelt wheat genotypes were heterogenous. We observed variability of HMW-GS composition according to environmental factors and level of breeding and predict technological quality on the basis of Glu-score calculation.

Keywords: Genotype identification, HMW-GS, wheat quality.

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Authors: M. Michalska-Domańska, P. Jóźwik, Z. Bojar

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Intermetallic Ni3Al – based alloys belong to a group of advanced materials characterized by good chemical and physical properties (such as structural stability, corrosion resistance) which offer advenced technological applications. The paper presents the study of catalytic properties of Ni3Al foils (thickness approximately 50 &m) in the methanol and hexane decomposition. The egzamined material posses microcrystalline structure without any additional catalysts on the surface. The better catalytic activity of Ni3Al foils with respect to quartz plates in both methanol and hexane decomposition was confirmed. On thin Ni3Al foils the methanol conversion reaches approximately 100% above 480 oC while the hexane conversion reaches approximately 100% (98,5%) at 500 oC. Deposit formed during the methanol decomposition is built up of carbon nanofibers decorated with metal-like nanoparticles.

Keywords: hexane decomposition, methanol decomposition, Ni3Al thin foils, Ni nanoparticles

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Authors: Fabrizio Logiurato

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Light Polarization has many technological applications, and its discovery was crucial to reveal the transverse nature of the electromagnetic waves. However, despite its fundamental and practical importance, in high school, this property of light is often neglected. This is a pity not only for its conceptual relevance, but also because polarization gives the possibility to perform many brilliant experiments with low cost materials. Moreover, the treatment of this matter lends very well to an interdisciplinary approach between art, biology and technology, which usually makes things more interesting to students. For these reasons, we have developed, and in this work, we introduce a laboratory on light polarization for high school and undergraduate students. They can see beautiful pictures when birefringent materials are set between two crossed polarizing filters. Pupils are very fascinated and drawn into by what they observe. The colourful images remind them of those ones of abstract painting or alien landscapes. With this multidisciplinary teaching method, students are more engaged and participative, and also, the learning process of the respective physics concepts is more effective.

Keywords: Light polarization, optical activity, multidisciplinary education, science and art.

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Authors: R. Poonsuph

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Technological innovation plays a crucial role in virtual healthcare services. A growing number of telehealth platforms are concentrating on using digital tools to improve the quality and availability of care. As a result, telehealth represents an opportunity to redesign the way health services are delivered. The research objective is to discover a new business model for digital health services and related industries to participate with telehealth solutions. The business opportunity is valuable for healthcare investors as a startup company to further investigations or implement the telehealth platform. The paper presents a digital healthcare business model and business opportunities to related industries. These include digital healthcare services extending from a traditional business model and use cases of business opportunities to related industries. Although there are enormous business opportunities, telehealth is still challenging due to the patient adaption and digital transformation process within a healthcare organization.

Keywords: telehealth, Internet hospital, HealthTech, InsurTech

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Authors: Hany Osman, M. F. Baki

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We address the balancing problem of transfer lines in this paper to find the optimal line balancing that minimizes the nonproductive time. We focus on the tool change time and face orientation change time both of which influence the makespane. We consider machine capacity limitations and technological constraints associated with the manufacturing process of auto cylinder heads. The problem is represented by a mixed integer programming model that aims at distributing the design features to workstations and sequencing the machining processes at a minimum non-productive time. The proposed model is solved by an algorithm established using linearization schemes and Benders- decomposition approach. The experiments show the efficiency of the algorithm in reaching the exact solution of small and medium problem instances at reasonable time.

Keywords: Transfer line balancing, Benders' decomposition, Linearization.

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Authors: Mohsen Mahmoud Rowshanzamir

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In all his novels, Hawthorne, the American writer, created settings in which his moral concerns could be presented through the actions of his characters. He illustrated his concern over the moral fall of man in the nineteenth century obsession for technological advancement. In “The Blithedale Romance” and “The House of Seven Gable” quite vividly, he pictured individualistic moral vices as the result of outside forces which caused social immorality. “The Marble Faun”, in its own turn, has the same type of social moral concerns to present: the story of nineteenth century modern man and his individualistic moral issues which lead to his social moral fall. He depicted the dominant themes of individualistic moral vices which all lead to social alienation and rejection. He showed hypocrisy and evil intentions as leading to social immoral atmosphere.

Keywords: American literature, immorality, individuals, sin, social moral concerns.

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Authors: Haydar Teymourlouei

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Cybersecurity is one of the greatest challenges society faces in an age revolving around technological development. With cyber-attacks on the continuous rise, the nation needs to understand and learn ways that can prevent such attacks. A major contribution that can change the education system is to implement laboratories and competitions into academia. This method can improve and educate students with more hands-on exercises in a highly motivating setting. Considering the fact that students are the next generation of the nation’s workforce, it is important for students to understand concepts not only through books, but also through actual hands-on experiences in order for them to be prepared for the workforce. An effective cybersecurity education system is critical for creating a strong cyber secure workforce today and for the future. This paper emphasizes the need for awareness and the need for competitions and cybersecurity laboratories to be implemented into the education system.

Keywords: Awareness, competition, cybersecurity, laboratories, workforce.

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Authors: Nurshuhada Zainon, Hafez Salleh, Faizul A. Rahim

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Information technology managers nowadays are facing with tremendous pressure to plan, implement, and adopt new technology solution due to the rapidity of technology changes. Resulted from a lack of study that have been done in this topic, the aim of this paper is to provide a comparison review on current tools that are currently being used in order to respond to technological changes. The study is based on extensive literature review of published works with majority of them are ranging from 2000 to the first part of 2011. The works were gathered from journals, books, and other information sources available on the Web. Findings show that, each tools has different focus and none of the tools are providing a framework in holistic view, which should include technical, people, process, and business environment aspect. Hence, this result provides potential information about current available tools that IT managers could use to manage changes in technology. Further, the result reveals a research gap in the area where the industries a short of such framework.

Keywords: Information technology, IT adaption, IT revolution, IT trends

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Authors: B. Elshafei, X. Mao

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The demand for renewable energy is significantly increasing, major investments are being supplied to the wind power generation industry as a leading source of clean energy. The wind energy sector is entirely dependable and driven by the prediction of wind speed, which by the nature of wind is very stochastic and widely random. This s0tudy employs deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression, used to predict wind speeds for medium term time horizons. Data of the RUNE experiment in the west coast of Denmark were provided by the Technical University of Denmark, which represent the wind speed across the study area from the period between December 2015 and March 2016. The study aims to investigate the effect of pre-processing the data by denoising the signal using empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and engaging the vector components of wind speed to increase the number of input data layers for data fusion using deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR). The outcomes were compared using root mean square error (RMSE) and the results demonstrated a significant increase in the accuracy of predictions which demonstrated that using vector components of the wind speed as additional predictors exhibits more accurate predictions than strategies that ignore them, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of all sub data and pre-processing signals for wind speed forecasting models.

Keywords: Data fusion, Gaussian process regression, signal denoise, temporal extrapolation.

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Authors: Zoja Raud, Valery Vodovozov

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The paper focuses on the distance laboratory organisation for training the electrical engineering staff and students in the fields of electrical drive and power electronics. To support online knowledge acquisition and professional enhancement, new challenges in remote education based on an active learning approach with self-assessment have been emerged by the authors. Following the literature review and explanation of the improved assessment methodology, the concept and technological basis of the labs arrangement are presented. To decrease the gap between the distance study of the up-to-date equipment and other educational activities in electrical engineering, the improvements in the following-up the learners’ progress and feedback composition are introduced. An authoring methodology that helps to personalise knowledge acquisition and enlarge Web-based possibilities is described. Educational management based on self-assessment is discussed.

Keywords: Advanced training, active learning, distance learning, electrical engineering, remote laboratory, self-assessment.

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Authors: A.L. Seetharam, B.L. Udaya Simha

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The Bangalore City is facing the acute problem of pollution in the atmosphere due to the heavy increase in the traffic and developmental activities in recent years. The present study is an attempt in the direction to assess trend of the ambient air quality status of three stations, viz., AMCO Batteries Factory, Mysore Road, GRAPHITE INDIA FACTORY, KHB Industrial Area, Whitefield and Ananda Rao Circle, Gandhinagar with respect to some of the major criteria pollutants such as Total Suspended particular matter (SPM), Oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and Oxides of sulphur (SO2). The sites are representative of various kinds of growths viz., commercial, residential and industrial, prevailing in Bangalore, which are contributing to air pollution. The concentration of Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) at all locations showed a falling trend due to use of refined petrol and diesel in the recent years. The concentration of Oxides of nitrogen (NOx) showed an increasing trend but was within the permissible limits. The concentration of the Suspended particular matter (SPM) showed the mixed trend. The correlation between model and observed values is found to vary from 0.4 to 0.7 for SO2, 0.45 to 0.65 for NOx and 0.4 to 0.6 for SPM. About 80% of data is observed to fall within the error band of ±50%. Forecast test for the best fit models showed the same trend as actual values in most of the cases. However, the deviation observed in few cases could be attributed to change in quality of petro products, increase in the volume of traffic, introduction of LPG as fuel in many types of automobiles, poor condition of roads, prevailing meteorological conditions, etc.

Keywords: Bangalore, urban air pollution, time series analysis.

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Authors: J. P. Panda, K. Sasmal, H. V. Warrior

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Eddy viscosity models in turbulence modeling can be mainly classified as linear and nonlinear models. Linear formulations are simple and require less computational resources but have the disadvantage that they cannot predict actual flow pattern in complex geophysical flows where streamline curvature and swirling motion are predominant. A constitutive equation of Reynolds stress anisotropy is adopted for the formulation of eddy viscosity including all the possible higher order terms quadratic in the mean velocity gradients, and a simplified model is developed for actual oceanic flows where only the vertical velocity gradients are important. The new model is incorporated into the one dimensional General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Two realistic oceanic test cases (OWS Papa and FLEX' 76) have been investigated. The new model predictions match well with the observational data and are better in comparison to the predictions of the two equation k-epsilon model. The proposed model can be easily incorporated in the three dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to simulate a wide range of oceanic processes. Practically, this model can be implemented in the coastal regions where trasverse shear induces higher vorticity, and for prediction of flow in estuaries and lakes, where depth is comparatively less. The model predictions of marine turbulence and other related data (e.g. Sea surface temperature, Surface heat flux and vertical temperature profile) can be utilized in short term ocean and climate forecasting and warning systems.

Keywords: Eddy viscosity, turbulence modeling, GOTM, CFD.

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Authors: Monika Dwilinska

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Innovations, especially technological, are considered key-drivers for sustainable economic growth and competitiveness in the globalised world. As such they should also play an important role in the process of economical convergence inside the EU. Unfortunately, the problem of insufficient innovation performance concerns around half of the EU countries. Poland shows that a lack of a consistent high-tech financing system constitutes a serious obstacle for the development of innovative firms. In this article we will evaluate these questions referring to the example of Ammono S.A., a Polish company established to develop and commercialise an original technology for the production of bulk GaN crystals. We will focus on its efforts to accumulate the financial resources necessary at different stages of its development. The purpose of this article is to suggest possible ways to improve the national innovative system, which would make it more competent in generating high-tech leaders.

Keywords: High-tech financing, innovation, national innovative system

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Authors: Gultekin Gurcay

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The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between transformational leadership and innovative work behavior and to evaluate the mediating role of leader-member exchange relationships (LMX) on the assumed relationship. This study has focused on the suggestion that LMX might emerge through transformational leadership behaviors and thus could mediate the relationship between transformational leadership and innovative behavior. A cross-sectional survey research has been conducted on the relationship these leadership approaches and their impact on organizational HRM-outcomes have been conducted on two organizations operating in the technical sector in Istanbul-Turkey. The results of the research have supported the hypotheses. Transformational leadership was positively related to the innovative behaviors and LMX emerged to mediate that relationship.

Keywords: Innovative leadership, Leader- Member Exchange, Transformational leadership, Turkey.

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Authors: Shishir Kumar, Chhaya Gangwal, Seema Raj

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Public health informatics (PHI) which has seen successful implementation in the developed world, become the buzzword in the developing countries in providing improved healthcare with enhanced access. In rural areas especially, where a huge gap exists between demand and supply of healthcare facilities, PHI is being seen as a major solution. There are factors such as growing network infrastructure and the technological adoption by the health fraternity which provide support to these claims. Public health informatics has opportunities in healthcare by providing opportunities to diagnose patients, provide intra-operative assistance and consultation from a remote site. It also has certain barriers in the awareness, adaptation, network infrastructure, funding and policy related areas. There are certain medico-legal aspects involving all the stakeholders which need to be standardized to enable a working system. This paper aims to analyze the potential and challenges of Public health informatics services in rural communities.

Keywords: PHI, e-health, Public health.

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: Comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events.

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Authors: Leszek Chybowski, Artur Bejger, Katarzyna Gawdzińska

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Subversion analysis is a tool used in the TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving) methodology. This article introduces the history and describes the process of subversion analysis, as well as function analysis and analysis of the resources, used at the design stage when generating possible undesirable situations. The article charts the course of subversion analysis when applied to a fuel injection nozzle of a marine engine. The work describes the fuel injector nozzle as a technological system and presents principles of analysis for the causes of a cracked tip of the nozzle body. The system is modelled with functional analysis. A search for potential causes of the damage is undertaken and a cause-and-effect analysis for various hypotheses concerning the damage is drawn up. The importance of particular hypotheses is evaluated and the most likely causes of damage identified.

Keywords: Complex technical system, fuel injector, function analysis, importance analysis, resource analysis, sabotage analysis, subversion analysis, TRIZ.

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Authors: Viktória Sugár, Zoltán Laczó, András Horkai, Gyula Kiss, Attila Talamon

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The majority of the building stock of Budapest inner districts was built around the turn of the 19^th and 20^th century. Although the structural stability of the buildings is not questioned, as the load bearing structures are in sufficient state, the secondary structures are aged, resulting unsatisfactory energetic state. The renovation of these historical buildings requires special methodology and technology: their ornamented facades and custom-made fenestration cannot be insulated or exchanged with conventional solutions without damaging the heritage values. The present paper aims to introduce and systematize the possible technological solutions for heritage respecting energy retrofit in case of a historical residential building stock. Through case study, the possible energy saving potential is also calculated using multiple renovation scenarios.

Keywords: Energy efficiency, heritage, historical building, renovation, technical solutions.

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Authors: Aravindkumar B. Harwalkar, S. S. Awanti

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Use of fly ash as a supplementary cementing material in large volumes can bring both technological and economic benefits for concrete industry. In this investigation mix proportions for high volume fly ash concrete were determined at cement replacement levels of 50%, 55%, 60% and 65% with low calcium fly ash. Flexural and compressive strengths of different mixes were measured at ages of 7, 28 and 90 days. Flexural strength of composite section prepared from pavement quality and lean high volume fly ash concrete was determined at the age of 28 days. High volume fly ash concrete mixes exhibited higher rate of strength gain and age factors than corresponding reference concrete mixes. The optimum cement replacement level for pavement quality concrete was found to be 60%. The consideration of bond between pavement quality and lean of high volume fly ash concrete will be beneficial in design of rigid pavements.

Keywords: Keywords—Composite section, Compressive strength, Flexural strength, Fly ash.

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Authors: Leire Urcola, Amaia Altuzarra

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This communication is intended to provide some issues for thought on the importance of implementation of Blended Learning in traditional universities, particularly in the Spanish university system. In this respect, we believe that virtual environments are likely to meet some of the needs raised by the Bologna agreement, trying to maintain the quality of teaching and at the same time taking advantage of the functionalities that virtual learning platforms offer. We are aware that an approach of learning from an open and constructivist nature in universities is a complex process that faces significant technological, administrative and human barriers. Therefore, in order to put plans in our universities, it is necessary to analyze the state of the art of some indicators relating to the use of ICT, with special attention to virtual teaching and learning, so that we can identify the main obstacles and design adaptive strategies for their full integration in the education system. Finally, we present major initiatives launched in the European and state framework for the effective implementation of new virtual environments in the area of higher education.

Keywords: Blended learning, e-Learning, ICT, Virtual LearningEnvironments

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Authors: Mohammed Alshehri, Steve Drew

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More and more governments around the world are introducing e-government as a means of reducing costs, improving services, saving time and increasing effectiveness and efficiency in the public sector Therefore e-government has been identified as one of the top priorities for Saudi government and all its agencies. However, the adoption of e-government is facing many challenges and barriers such as technological, cultural, organizational, and social issues which must be considered and treated carefully by any government contemplating its adoption. This paper reports on a pilot study amongst online (e-ready) citizens to identify the challenges and barriers that affect the adoption of e-government services especially from their perspective in Saudi society. Based on the analysis of data collected from an online survey the researcher was able to identify some of the important barriers and challenges from the e-ready citizen perspective. As a result, this study has generated a list of possible strategies to move towards successful adoption of egovernment services in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: Challenges, E-government services, adoption, SaudiArabia

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Authors: Li Xu, Huanbao Jiang, Zhenfei Huang, Lailai Zhang

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In recent years, as global warming, the sea-ice extent of North Arctic undergoes an evident decrease and Arctic channel has attracted the attention of shipping industry. Ice crystals existing in the seawater of Arctic channel which enter the seawater system of the ship with the seawater were found blocking the seawater pipe. The appearance of cooler paralysis, auxiliary machine error and even ship power system paralysis may be happened if seriously. In order to reduce the effect of high temperature in auxiliary equipment, seawater system will use external ice-water to participate in the cooling cycle and achieve the state of its flow. The distribution of ice crystals in seawater pipe can be achieved. As the ice slurry system is solid liquid two-phase system, the flow process of ice-water mixture is very complex and diverse. In this paper, the flow process in seawater pipe of ice slurry is simulated with fluid dynamics simulation software based on k-ε turbulence model. As the ice packing fraction is a key factor effecting the distribution of ice crystals, the influence of ice packing fraction on the flowing process of ice slurry is analyzed. In this work, the simulation results show that as the ice packing fraction is relatively large, the distribution of ice crystals is uneven in the flowing process of the seawater which has such disadvantage as increase the possibility of blocking, that will provide scientific forecasting methods for the forming of ice block in seawater piping system. It has important significance for the reliability of the operating of polar ships in the future.

Keywords: Ice slurry, seawater pipe, ice packing fraction, numerical simulation.

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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Authors: E. Sok, Y. Zhuo, S. Wang

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A hybrid Photovoltaic/Thermal (PV/T) solar system integrates photovoltaic and solar thermal technologies into one single solar energy device, with dual generation of electricity and heat energy. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential for introduction of the PV/T technology into Northern China. For this purpose, outdoor experiments were conducted on a prototype of a PV/T water-heating system. The annual thermal and electrical performances were investigated under the climatic conditions of Beijing. An economic analysis of the system was then carried out, followed by a sensitivity study. The analysis revealed that the hybrid system is not economically attractive with the current market and energy prices. However, considering the continuous commitment of the Chinese government towards policy development in the renewable energy sector, and technological improvements like the increasing cost-effectiveness of PV cells, PV/Thermal technology may become economically viable in the near future.

Keywords: Hybrid Photovoltaic/Thermal (PV/T), Solar energy, Economic analysis

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Authors: Sadi Vural, Hiromi Tomii, Hironori Yamauchi

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As far as the latest technological improvements are concerned, digital systems more become popular than the past. Despite this growing demand to the digital systems, content copy and attack against the digital cinema contents becomes a serious problem. To solve the above security problem, we propose “traceable watermarking using Hash functions for digital cinema system. Digital Cinema is a great application for traceable watermarking since it uses watermarking technology during content play as well as content transmission. The watermark is embedded into the randomly selected movie frames using CRC-32 techniques. CRC-32 is a Hash function. Using it, the embedding position is distributed by Hash Function so that any party cannot break off the watermarking or will not be able to change. Finally, our experimental results show that proposed DWT watermarking method using CRC-32 is much better than the convenient watermarking techniques in terms of robustness, image quality and its simple but unbreakable algorithm.

Keywords: Decoder, Digital content, JPEG2000 Frame, System-On-Chip, traceable watermark, Hash Function, CRC-32.

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