Search results for: experience report

Authors: Derek O Reilly, Piotr Milczarski, Shane Dowdall, Artur Hłobaż, Krzysztof Podlaski, Hiram Bollaert

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Learning through creation of contextual games is a very promising approach when undertaking interdisciplinary and international group projects. During 2013 and 2014 the authors organized two intensive student projects. The two projects were in different countries and different conditions. Between them, the two projects involved 68 students and 12 mentors from five EU countries and from various academic disciplines. In this paper we share our experience of these two projects and we suggest approaches that can be utilized to strengthen the chances of succeeding in short (12-15 days long) intensive student projects.

Keywords: Contextual games, mobile games, GGULIVRR, WalkAbout, Erasmus Intensive Programme.

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Authors: Heinz Stockinger

Abstract:

Certain sciences such as physics, chemistry or biology, have a strong computational aspect and use computing infrastructures to advance their scientific goals. Often, high performance and/or high throughput computing infrastructures such as clusters and computational Grids are applied to satisfy computational needs. In addition, these sciences are sometimes characterised by scientific collaborations requiring resource sharing which is typically provided by Grid approaches. In this article, I discuss Grid computing approaches in High Energy Physics as well as in bioinformatics and highlight some of my experience in both scientific domains.

Keywords: Grid computing, Web services, physics, bioinformatics

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Authors: H.A. Ashorynejad, M. Farhadi, K.Sedighi, A.Hasanpour

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We report the results of an lattice Boltzmann simulation of magnetohydrodynamic damping of sidewall convection in a rectangular enclosure filled with a porous medium. In particular we investigate the suppression of convection when a steady magnetic field is applied in the vertical direction. The left and right vertical walls of the cavity are kept at constant but different temperatures while both the top and bottom horizontal walls are insulated. The effects of the controlling parameters involved in the heat transfer and hydrodynamic characteristics are studied in detail. The heat and mass transfer mechanisms and the flow characteristics inside the enclosure depended strongly on the strength of the magnetic field and Darcy number. The average Nusselt number decreases with rising values of the Hartmann number while this increases with increasing values of the Darcy number.

Keywords: Lattice Boltzmann method , Natural convection , Magnetohydrodynamic , Porous medium

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Authors: Nei-Ching Yeh

Abstract:

This study describes undergraduate casual-leisure information behaviors relevant to online videos. Diaries and in-depth interviews were used to collect data. Twenty-four undergraduates participated in this study (9 men, 15 women; all were aged 18–22 years). This study presents a model of casual-leisure information behaviors and contributes new insights into user experience in casual-leisure settings, such as online video programs, with implications for other information domains.

Keywords: Casual-leisure information behaviors, information behavior, online videos, role.

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Authors: E.Talebi, F.Zahmatkesh

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Buckling-Restrained Braced Frame system(BRBFs) are a new type of steel seismic-load-resisting system that has found use in several countries because of its efficiency and its promise of seismic performance far superior to that of conventional braced frames. The system is addressed in the 2005 edition of the AISC Seismic Provisions for Structural Steel Buildings, also a set of design provisions has been developed by NEHRP. This report illustrates the seismic design of buckling restrained braced frames and compares the result of design in the application of earthquake load for ordinary bracing systems and buckling restrained bracing systems to see the advantage and disadvantages of this new type of seismic resisting system in comparison with the old Ordinary Concentric Braced Frame systems (OCBFs); they are defined by the provisions governing their design.

Keywords: Buckling Restrained Braced Frame system (BRBFs), Ordinary Concentric Braced Frame systems (OCBFs).

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Authors: D. S. A. Nanayakkara, K. J. P. G. Perera

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E-commerce platforms have revolutionized the shopping experience, offering convenient ways for consumers to make purchases. To improve interactions with customers and optimize marketing strategies, it is essential for businesses to understand user behavior, preferences, and needs on these platforms. This paper focuses on recommending businesses to customize interactions with users based on their behavioral patterns, leveraging data-driven analysis and machine learning techniques. Businesses can improve engagement and boost the adoption of e-commerce platforms by aligning behavioral patterns with user goals of usability and satisfaction. We propose TheAnalyzer, a clustering-based system designed to enhance business productivity by analyzing user-profiles and improving human-computer interaction. TheAnalyzer seamlessly integrates with business applications, collecting relevant data points based on users' natural interactions without additional burdens such as questionnaires or surveys. It defines five key user analytics as features for its dataset, which are easily captured through users' interactions with e-commerce platforms. This research presents a study demonstrating the successful distinction of users into specific groups based on the five key analytics considered by TheAnalyzer. With the assistance of domain experts, customized business rules can be attached to each group, enabling TheAnalyzer to influence business applications and provide an enhanced personalized user experience. The outcomes are evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively, demonstrating that utilizing TheAnalyzer’s capabilities can optimize business outcomes, enhance customer satisfaction, and drive sustainable growth. The findings of this research contribute to the advancement of personalized interactions in e-commerce platforms. By leveraging user behavioral patterns and analyzing both new and existing users, businesses can effectively tailor their interactions to improve customer satisfaction, loyalty and ultimately drive sales.

Keywords: Data clustering, data standardization, dimensionality reduction, human-computer interaction, user profiling.

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Authors: Petr Květon, Martin Jelínek

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We try to identify the role of various aspects of parenting style in the phenomenon of videogame playing addiction. Relevant self-report questionnaires were part of a wider set of methods focused on the constructs related to videogame playing. The battery of methods was administered in school settings in paper and pencil form. The research sample consisted of 333 (166 males, 167 females) elementary and high school students at the age between 10 and 19 years (m=14.98, sd=1.77). Using stepwise regression analysis, we assessed the influence of demographic variables (gender and age) and parenting styles. Age and gender together explained 26.3% of game addiction variance (F(2,330)=58.81, p<.01). By adding four aspect of parenting styles (inconsistency, involvement, control, and warmth) another 10.2% of variance was explained (∆F(4,326)=13.09, p<.01). The significant predictor was gender of the respondent, where males scored higher on game addiction scale (B=0.70, p<.01), age (β=-0.18, p<.01), where younger children showed higher level of addiction, and parental inconsistency (β=0.30, p<.01), where the higher the inconsistency in upbringing, the more developed game playing addiction.

Keywords: Gender, parenting styles, video games, addiction.

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Authors: Mohammad Rajabalinejad

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Safety is often seen as a requirement or a performance indicator through the design process, and this does not always result in optimally safe products or systems. This paper suggests integrating the best safety practices with the design process to enrich the exploration experience for designers and add extra values for customers. For this purpose, the commonly practiced safety standards and design methods have been reviewed and their common blocks have been merged forming Safety Cube. Safety Cube combines common blocks for design, hazard identification, risk assessment and risk reduction through an integral approach. An example application presents the use of Safety Cube for design of machinery.

Keywords: Safety, safety cube, design, product, system, machinery.

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Authors: Carlos H. Cuadra

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The present report describes the characteristics of damages and behavior of reinforced concrete buildings during the tsunami action. The discussion is based on the field damage survey in selected cities located on the coast of the zone affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. This earthquake is the most powerful know earthquake that has hit Japan with a magnitude 9.0 and with epicenter located at 129 km of Sendai city (off the coast). The earthquake triggered a destructive tsunami with run up height of up to 40 meters that mainly affect cities located on the Pacific Ocean coast of the Tohoku region (north-east region of Japan). Reinforced concrete buildings in general resist the tsunami without collapse however the non-structural elements like panels and ceilings were severely damaged. The analysis of damages has permitted to understand the behavior of RC buildings under tsunami attack, and has also permitted to establish recommendations for their use to take refuge from tsunami in places where natural topography makes impossible to reach hilltops or other safer places.

Keywords: tsunami, RC buildings, East Japan Earthquake, seismic damage

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Authors: Srinivasan Latha, M. R. Christhu Raj, Rajeev Sukumaran

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Active learning strategies have completely rewritten the concept of teaching and learning. Academicians have clocked back to Socratic approaches of questioning. Educators have started implementing active learning strategies for effective learning with the help of tools and technology. As Generation-Y learners are mostly visual, engaging them using visualization techniques play a vital role in their learning process. The facilitator has an important role in intrinsically motivating the learners using different approaches to create self-learning interests. Different visualization techniques were used along with lectures to help students understand and appreciate the concepts. Anonymous feedback was collected from learners. The consolidated report shows that majority of learners accepted the usage of visualization techniques was helpful in understanding concepts as well as create interest in learning the course. This study helps to understand, how the use of visualization techniques help the facilitator to engage learners effectively as well create and intrinsic motivation for their learning.

Keywords: Visualization techniques, concept maps, mind maps, argument maps, flowchart, tree diagram, problem solving.

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Authors: I. Rodionov, A. Semenov, E. Gosteva, O. Sokolova

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The venture capital becomes more and more advanced and effective source of the innovation project financing, connected with a high-risk level. In the developed countries, it plays a key role in transforming innovation projects into successful businesses and creating the prosperity of the modern economy. In Russia, there are many necessary preconditions for creation of the effective venture investment system: the network of the public institutes for innovation financing operates; there is a significant number of the small and medium-sized enterprises, capable to sell production with good market potential. However, the current system does not confirm the necessary level of efficiency in practice that can be substantially explained by the absence of the accurate plan of action to form the national venture model and by the lack of experience of successful venture deals with profitable exits in Russian economy. This paper studies the influence of various factors on the venture industry development by the example of the IT-sector in Russia. The choice of the sector is based on the fact, that this segment is the main driver of the venture capital market growth in Russia, and the necessary set of data exists. The size of investment of the second round is used as the dependent variable. To analyse the influence of the previous round, such determinant as the volume of the previous (first) round investments is used. There is also used a dummy variable in regression to examine that the participation of an investor with high reputation and experience in the previous round can influence the size of the next investment round. The regression analysis of short-term interrelations between studied variables reveals prevailing influence of the volume of the first round investments on the venture investments volume of the second round. The most important determinant of the value of the second-round investment is the value of first–round investment, so it means that the most competitive on the Russian market are the start-up teams that can attract more money on the start, and the target market growth is not the factor of crucial importance. This supports the point of view that VC in Russia is driven by endogenous factors and not by exogenous ones that are based on global market growth.

Keywords: Venture industry, venture investment, determinants of the venture sector development, IT-sector.

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Authors: Galina Mamardashvili, Nugzar Mamardashvili, Win Dehaen

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The processes of complexation of the Zn-tetraarylporphyrins with eight 4-(4-(3,6-bis(t-butyl)carbazol-9-yl-phenyl)-1,2,3-triazole (ZnP1) and eight 4-(4-(3,6-di-tert-butyl-9-H-carbazol-9-yl)phenoxy)methyl)-2,4,6-trimethylphenyl (ZnP2)with the 1,10-diaza-4,7,13,18tetraoxabicyclo[8.5.5]eicosane (L1),1,10-diaza-4,7,13,16,21,24-hexaoxabicyclo[8.8.8]hexacosane (L2)and 1,10-diaza-5,6,14,15-dibenzo-4,7,13,16,21,24 hexaoxabicyclo[8.8.8] hexacosane (L3) were investigated by the method of spectrophotometric titration and ¹H NMR-spectroscopy. We determined the structures of the host-guest complexes, and their stability constants in toluene were calculated. It was found out that the ZnP1 interacts with the guest molecules L1, L2 with the formation of stable "nest" type complexes and does not form similar complexes with the L3 (presumably due to the fact that the L3 does not match the size of the porphyrin ZnP(1) cavity). On the other hand, the porphyrin ZnP2 binds all of the ligands L1-L3, however complexes thus formed are less stable than complexes ZnP1-L1, ZnP1-L2. In the report, we will also discuss the influence of the alkali cations additives on the stability of the complexes between the porphyrin ZnP1, ZnP2 hosts and guest molecules of the ligands L1-L3.

Keywords: Porphyrin, cryptand, cation, complex guest-host.

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Authors: Shabrina Pritta Radyanti, Harimukti Wandebori

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A research study was conducted with an objective to propose a collaborative business strategy of a oil and gas trading company, representing PPT Energy Trading Co., Ltd., with its shareholder, especially electricity and power supply companies for LNG Form of Coal Bed Methane in B2B Transaction. Collaborative business strategy is a strategy to collaborate with other organizations due to have future benefits in both parties, or achieve the business objective through the collaboration of business, its strategy and partners. A structured interview was established to collect the required primary data from the company. Not only interview, but also company’s business plan and annual report were collected and analyzed for the company’s current condition. As the result, this research shows a recommendation to propose a new collaborative strategy with limiting its target market, diversifying product, conducting new business model, and considering other stakeholders.

Keywords: collaborative business strategy, trading company, LNG, coal bed methane

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Authors: Jafar Khan Kasi, Ajab Khan Kasi, Muzamil Bokhari

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Carbon nanotube is one of the most attractive materials for the potential applications of nanotechnology due to its excellent mechanical, thermal, electrical and optical properties. In this paper we report a supercapacitor made of nickel foil electrodes, coated with multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) thin film using electrophoretic deposition (EPD) method. Chemical vapor deposition method was used for the growth of MWCNTs and ethanol was used as a hydrocarbon source. High graphitic multiwall carbon nanotube was found at 750oC analyzing by Raman spectroscopy. We observed the electrochemical performance of supercapacitor by cyclic voltammetry. The electrodes of supercapacitor fabricated from MWCNTs exhibit considerably small equivalent series resistance (ESR), and a high specific power density. Electrophoretic deposition is an easy method in fabricating MWCNT electrodes for high performance supercapacitor.

Keywords: Carbon nanotube, chemical vapor deposition, catalyst, charge, cyclic voltammetry.

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Authors: Hunachew B. Mengesha, Biruck Y. Dessalegn

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Owing to the dramatic expansion of universities in Ethiopia, understanding the composition and nature of solid waste at the source of generation plays an important role in designing a program for an integrated waste management program. In this study, we report the quantity, quality and recycling potential of the waste generated in the three campuses of the Hawassa University, Southern Ethiopia. A total of 3.5 tons of waste was generated per day in the three campuses of the university. More than 95% of the waste constituents were with potential to be recovered. It was a lesson from the study that there was no source reduction, recycling, composting, proper land filling or incineration practices in-place. The considerably high waste generation associated with the expansion of educational programs in the university appears worthwhile requiring implementation of programs for an integrated solid waste management to minimize health risk to humans and reduce environmental implications as a result of improper handling and disposal of wastes.

Keywords: Hawassa University, integrated solid waste management, solid waste generation.

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Authors: Md. Mahbubur Rahim

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B2E portals represent a new class of web-based information technologies which many organisations are introducing in recent years to stay in touch with their distributed workforces and enable them to perform value added activities for organisations. However, actual usage of these emerging systems (measured using suitable instruments) has not been reported in the contemporary scholarly literature. We argue that many of the instruments to measure usage of various types of IT-enabled information systems are not directly applicable for B2E portals because they were developed for the context of traditional mainframe and PC-based information systems. It is therefore important to develop a new instrument for web-based portal technologies aimed at employees. In this article, we report on the development and initial qualitative evaluation of an instrument that seeks to operationaise a set of independent factors affecting the usage of portals by employees. The proposed instrument is useful to IT/e-commerce researchers and practitioners alike as it enhances their confidence in predicting employee usage of portals in organisations.

Keywords: Portal, business-to-employees, instrument, evaluation, qualitative research.

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Authors: Wajdan Al Malwi, Karen Renaud, Lewis Mackenzie

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The privacy paradox describes a phenomenon whereby there is no connection between stated privacy concerns and privacy behaviours. We need to understand the underlying reasons for this paradox if we are to help users to preserve their privacy more effectively. In particular, the Social Networking System (SNS) domain offers a rich area of investigation due to the risks of unwise information disclosure decisions. Our study thus aims to untangle the complicated nature and underlying mechanisms of online privacy-related decisions in SNSs. In this paper, we report on the findings of a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) that revealed a number of factors that are likely to influence online privacy decisions. Our deductive analysis approach was informed by Communicative Privacy Management (CPM) theory. We uncovered a lack of clarity around privacy attitudes and their link to behaviours, which makes it challenging to design privacy-protecting SNS platforms and to craft legislation to ensure that users’ privacy is preserved.

Keywords: Privacy paradox, self-disclosure, privacy attitude, privacy behaviour, social networking sites.

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Authors: J. Casteleiro- Pitrez

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The interest in Virtual Reality (VR) keeps increasing among the community of designers. To develop this type of immersive experience, the understanding of new processes and methodologies is as fundamental as its complex implementation which usually implies hiring a specialized team. In this paper, we introduce a case study, a platform that allows designers to easily create complex VR experiences, present its features, and its development process. We conclude that this platform provides a complete solution for the design and development of VR experiences, no-code needed.

Keywords: Designers, virtual reality, virtual reality design platform, virtual reality system, no-coding.

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Authors: Padmanabhan Balasubramanian, R. Chinnadurai

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This paper deals with a power-conscious ANDEXOR- Inverter type logic implementation for a complex class of Boolean functions, namely Achilles- heel functions. Different variants of the above function class have been considered viz. positive, negative and pure horn for analysis and simulation purposes. The proposed realization is compared with the decomposed implementation corresponding to an existing standard AND-EXOR logic minimizer; both result in Boolean networks with good testability attribute. It could be noted that an AND-OR-EXOR type logic network does not exist for the positive phase of this unique class of logic function. Experimental results report significant savings in all the power consumption components for designs based on standard cells pertaining to a 130nm UMC CMOS process The simulations have been extended to validate the savings across all three library corners (typical, best and worst case specifications).

Keywords: Achilles' heel functions, AND-EXOR-Inverter logic, CMOS technology, low power design.

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Authors: Kamila Tišlerová

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This contribution aims to outline some topics around the process of introduction of compulsory electronic exchange of documents (so called e-Boxes) in public administration. The research was conducted in order to gauge the difference between the expectation of those using internal email and their experience in reality. Both qualitative and quantitative research is employed to lead also to an estimation of the willingness and readiness of government bodies, business units and citizens to adopt new technologies. At the same time the most potent barriers to successful e-communication through the e-Boxes are identified.

Keywords: E-Box, e-Government, electronic document exchange, digitalisation, public administration.

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Authors: Pat Nelson

Abstract:

Since the release of the 21^st century policing report in the United States, the techniques of de-escalation have received a lot of attention and focus in political systems, policy changes, and the media. The challenge in professional peace officer education is that there is a vast range of defining de-escalation and understanding the various techniques involved, many of which are based on popular media. This research surveyed professional peace officer education university students on their definition of de-escalation and the techniques associated with de-escalation before specific communications coursework was completed. The students were then surveyed after the communication coursework was completed to determine the changes in defining and understanding de-escalation techniques. This research has found that clearly defining de-escalation and emphasizing the broad range of techniques available enhances the students’ understanding and application of proper de-escalation. This research demonstrates the need for professional peace officer education to move students from media concepts of law enforcement to theoretical concepts.

Keywords: Criminal justice education, de-escalation, law enforcement, peace officer communications.

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Authors: A.R.Rizulla, F.S.Tashimova, A.R. Massalimova, A.K.Mynbayeva, G.S.Abdiraiymova

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The importance of happiness understanding research is caused by cardinal changes experiences in system of people values in the post-Soviet countries territory. «The time of changes», which characterized with destruction of old values and not creativeness of new, stimulating experiences by the person of existential vacuum. The given research is actual not only in connection with sense formation, but also in connection with necessity creatively to adapt in integrative space. According to numerous works [1,2,3], we define happiness as the peak experience connected with satisfaction correlated system of needs, dependent on style of subject's coping behavior.

Keywords: Coping behavior, happiness, overcoming, psychological defense.

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Authors: Elle Hilke Dominski

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This paper explores the impact of intersectional bullying of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender (LGBT) youth from a multi-layered experience perspective within bullying incidents at school. Present inclusionary measures at school may not be designed as a continuous process of finding better methods for responding to diversity, rather remain ‘fixed’ as singular solutions applied universally. This paper argues recognizing education through a lens of inclusion begins to realize most educational systems are poorly equipped to handle diversity.

Keywords: Education, inclusion and exclusion, bullying, intersectional bullying, LGBT, power paradigms.

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Authors: K. Kalaiselvan, K. Sekar, S. Elavarasi

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The use of laser beam welding for joining titanium and aluminum offers more advantages compared with conventional joining processes. Dissimilar metal combination is very much needed for aircraft structural industries and research activities. The quality of a weld joint is directly influenced by the welding input parameters. The common problem that is faced by the manufactures is the control of the process parameters to obtain a good weld joint with minimal detrimental. To overcome this issue, various parameters can be preferred to obtain quality of weld joint. In this present study an overall literature review on processing parameters such as offset distance, welding speed, laser power, shielding gas and filler metals are discussed with the effects on quality weldment. Additionally, mechanical properties of welds joint are discussed. The aim of the report is to review the recent progress in the welding of dissimilar titanium (Ti) and aluminum (Al) alloys to provide a basis for follow up research.

Keywords: Laser beam welding, titanium, aluminum, process parameters.

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Authors: Elangeshwaran Pathmanathan, Rosdiazli Ibrahim, Vijanth Sagayan Asirvadam

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This paper aims to develop a NOx emission model of an acid gas incinerator using Nelder-Mead least squares support vector regression (LS-SVR). Malaysia DOE is actively imposing the Clean Air Regulation to mandate the installation of analytical instrumentation known as Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS) to report emission level online to DOE . As a hardware based analyzer, CEMS is expensive, maintenance intensive and often unreliable. Therefore, software predictive technique is often preferred and considered as a feasible alternative to replace the CEMS for regulatory compliance. The LS-SVR model is built based on the emissions from an acid gas incinerator that operates in a LNG Complex. Simulated Annealing (SA) is first used to determine the initial hyperparameters which are then further optimized based on the performance of the model using Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm. The LS-SVR model is shown to outperform a benchmark model based on backpropagation neural networks (BPNN) in both training and testing data.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, industrial pollution, predictive algorithms, support vector machines

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Authors: Piyali Chaudhuri, Peter T. Martin, Aleksandar Z. Stevanovic, Chongkai Zhu

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Loop detectors report traffic characteristics in real time. They are at the core of traffic control process. Intuitively, one would expect that as density of detection increases, so would the quality of estimates derived from detector data. However, as detector deployment increases, the associated operating and maintenance cost increases. Thus, traffic agencies often need to decide where to add new detectors and which detectors should continue receiving maintenance, given their resource constraints. This paper evaluates the effect of detector spacing on freeway travel time estimation. A freeway section (Interstate-15) in Salt Lake City metropolitan region is examined. The research reveals that travel time accuracy does not necessarily deteriorate with increased detector spacing. Rather, the actual location of detectors has far greater influence on the quality of travel time estimates. The study presents an innovative computational approach that delivers optimal detector locations through a process that relies on Genetic Algorithm formulation.

Keywords: Detector, Freeway, Genetic algorithm, Travel timeestimate.

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Authors: K. Kusakana

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A hybrid energy system is a combination of renewable energy sources with back up, as well as a storage system used to respond to given load energy requirements. Given that the electrical output of each renewable source is fluctuating with changes in weather conditions, and since the load demand also varies with time; one of the main attributes of hybrid systems is to be able to respond to the load demand at any time by optimally controlling each energy source, storage and back-up system. The induced optimization problem is to compute the optimal operation control of the system with the aim of minimizing operation costs while efficiently and reliably responding to the load energy requirement. Current optimization research and development on hybrid systems are mainly focusing on the sizing aspect. Thus, the aim of this paper is to report on the state-of-the-art of optimal operation control of hybrid renewable energy systems. This paper also discusses different challenges encountered, as well as future developments that can help in improving the optimal operation control of hybrid renewable energy systems.

Keywords: Renewable energies, hybrid systems, optimization, operation control.

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Authors: Wenqing Fan, Yixuan Cheng, Wei Huang

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The diversity and complexity of modern IT systems make it almost impossible for internal teams to find vulnerabilities in all software before the software is officially released. The emergence of threat intelligence and vulnerability reporting policy has greatly reduced the burden on software vendors and organizations to find vulnerabilities. However, to prove the existence of the reported vulnerability, it is necessary but difficult for security incident response team to build a deliberated vulnerable environment from the vulnerability report with limited and incomplete information. This paper presents a structured, standardized, machine-oriented vulnerability intelligence format, that can be used to automate the orchestration of Deliberated Vulnerable Environment (DVE). This paper highlights the important role of software configuration and proof of vulnerable specifications in vulnerability intelligence, and proposes a triad model, which is called DIR (Dependency Configuration, Installation Configuration, Runtime Configuration), to define software configuration. Finally, this paper has also implemented a prototype system to demonstrate that the orchestration of DVE can be automated with the intelligence.

Keywords: DIR Triad Model, DVE, vulnerability intelligence, vulnerability recurrence.

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Authors: Indra Budi, Rizal Fathoni Aji, Agus Widodo

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Prediction of future research topics by using time series analysis either statistical or machine learning has been conducted previously by several researchers. Several methods have been proposed to combine the forecasting results into single forecast. These methods use fixed combination of individual forecast to get the final forecast result. In this paper, quite different approach is employed to select the forecasting methods, in which every point to forecast is calculated by using the best methods used by similar validation dataset. The dataset used in the experiment is time series derived from research report in Garuda, which is an online sites belongs to the Ministry of Education in Indonesia, over the past 20 years. The experimental result demonstrates that the proposed method may perform better compared to the fix combination of predictors. In addition, based on the prediction result, we can forecast emerging research topics for the next few years.

Keywords: Combination, emerging topics, ensemble, forecasting, machine learning, prediction, research topics, similarity measure, time series.

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Authors: Khemanand Moheeput, Smita S. D. Goorah, Satish K. Ramchurn

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We report a computational study of the spreading dynamics of a viral infection in a complex (scale-free) network. The final epidemic size distribution (FESD) was found to be unimodal or bimodal depending on the value of the basic reproductive number R0 . The FESDs occurred on time-scales long enough for intermediate-time epidemic size distributions (IESDs) to be important for control measures. The usefulness of R0 for deciding on the timeliness and intensity of control measures was found to be limited by the multimodal nature of the IESDs and by its inability to inform on the speed at which the infection spreads through the population. A reduction of the transmission probability at the hubs of the scale-free network decreased the occurrence of the larger-sized epidemic events of the multimodal distributions. For effective epidemic control, an early reduction in transmission at the index cell and its neighbors was essential.

Keywords: Basic reproductive number, epidemic control, scalefree network, viral infection.

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