Search results for: Safety and health model

Authors: F. D. Konstandakopoulou, G. A. Papagiannopoulos, N. G. Pnevmatikos, G. D. Hatzigeorgiou

Abstract:

This paper examines the effects of pile-soil-structure interaction on the dynamic response of offshore platforms under the action of near-fault earthquakes. Two offshore platforms models are investigated, one with completely fixed supports and one with piles which are clamped into deformable layered soil. The soil deformability for the second model is simulated using non-linear springs. These platform models are subjected to near-fault seismic ground motions. The role of fault mechanism on platforms’ response is additionally investigated, while the study also examines the effects of different angles of incidence of seismic records on the maximum response of each platform.

Keywords: Hazard analysis, offshore platforms, earthquakes, safety.

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Authors: F.B. Georgise, K. D. Thoben, M. Seifert

Abstract:

This paper presents a research agenda on the SCOR model adaptation. SCOR model is designated to measure supply chain performance and logistics impact across the boundaries of individual organizations. It is at its growing stage of its life cycle and is enjoying the leverage of becoming the industry standard. The SCOR model has been developed and used widely in developed countries context. This research focuses on the SCOR model adaptation for the manufacturing industry in developing countries. With a necessary understanding of the characteristics, difficulties and problems of the manufacturing industry in developing countries- supply chain; consequently, we will try to designs an adapted model with its building blocks: business process model, performance measures and best practices.

Keywords: developing countries, manufacturing industry, SCOR model adaptation

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Authors: Hyun-Kyu Kang

Abstract:

The Korean Government has applied the preliminary feasibility study to new government R&D program plans as a part of an evaluation system for R&D programs. The preliminary feasibility study for the R&D program is composed of 3 major criteria such as technological, policy and economic analysis. The program logic model approach is used as a part of the technological analysis in the preliminary feasibility study. We has developed and improved the R&D program logic model. The logic model is a very useful tool for evaluating R&D program plans. Using a logic model, we can generally identify important factors of the R&D program plan, analyze its logic flow and find the disconnection or jump in the logic flow among components of the logic model.

Keywords: Preliminary feasibility study, R&D program logic model, technological analysis.

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Authors: K. Abbaspoursani, M. Allahyari, M. Rahmani

Abstract:

Thermal conductivity is an important characteristic of a nanofluid in laminar flow heat transfer. This paper presents an improved model for the prediction of the effective thermal conductivity of nanofluids based on dimensionless groups. The model expresses the thermal conductivity of a nanofluid as a function of the thermal conductivity of the solid and liquid, their volume fractions and particle size. The proposed model includes a parameter which accounts for the interfacial shell, brownian motion, and aggregation of particle. The validation of the model is verified by applying the results obtained by the experiments of Tio2-water and Al2o3-water nanofluids.

Keywords: Critical particle size, nanofluid, model, and thermal conductivity.

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Authors: Juan P. Zamora, Wilson Adarme, Laura Palacios

Abstract:

This paper shows a traceability framework for supply risk monitoring, beginning with the identification, analysis, and evaluation of the supply chain risk and focusing on the supply operations of the Health Care Institutions with oncology services in Bogota, Colombia. It includes a brief presentation of the state of the art of the Supply Chain Risk Management and traceability systems in logistics operations, and it concludes with the methodology to integrate the SCRM model with the traceability system.

Keywords: Supply risk, risk monitoring, supply chain risk management, cancer drugs, traceability systems.

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Authors: Zeeshan Furqan, Shahabuddin Muhammad, Ratan Guha

Abstract:

IEEE has designed 802.11i protocol to address the security issues in wireless local area networks. Formal analysis is important to ensure that the protocols work properly without having to resort to tedious testing and debugging which can only show the presence of errors, never their absence. In this paper, we present the formal verification of an abstract protocol model of 802.11i. We translate the 802.11i protocol into the Strand Space Model and then prove the authentication property of the resulting model using the Strand Space formalism. The intruder in our model is imbued with powerful capabilities and repercussions to possible attacks are evaluated. Our analysis proves that the authentication of 802.11i is not compromised in the presented model. We further demonstrate how changes in our model will yield a successful man-in-the-middle attack.

Keywords: authentication, formal analysis, formal verification, security.

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Authors: Mario Gianni, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Fiora Pirri

Abstract:

In this work, we present a Bayesian non-parametric approach to model the motion control of ATVs. The motion control model is based on a Dirichlet Process-Gaussian Process (DP-GP) mixture model. The DP-GP mixture model provides a flexible representation of patterns of control manoeuvres along trajectories of different lengths and discretizations. The model also estimates the number of patterns, sufficient for modeling the dynamics of the ATV.

Keywords: Dirichlet processes, Gaussian processes, robot control learning, tracked vehicles.

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Authors: Xiaoshu Lu, Päivi Leino-Arjas, Kustaa Piha, Akseli Aittomäki, Peppiina Saastamoinen, Ossi Rahkonen, Eero Lahelma

Abstract:

Sickness absence represents a major economic and social issue. Analysis of sick leave data is a recurrent challenge to analysts because of the complexity of the data structure which is often time dependent, highly skewed and clumped at zero. Ignoring these features to make statistical inference is likely to be inefficient and misguided. Traditional approaches do not address these problems. In this study, we discuss model methodologies in terms of statistical techniques for addressing the difficulties with sick leave data. We also introduce and demonstrate a new method by performing a longitudinal assessment of long-term absenteeism using a large registration dataset as a working example available from the Helsinki Health Study for municipal employees from Finland during the period of 1990-1999. We present a comparative study on model selection and a critical analysis of the temporal trends, the occurrence and degree of long-term sickness absences among municipal employees. The strengths of this working example include the large sample size over a long follow-up period providing strong evidence in supporting of the new model. Our main goal is to propose a way to select an appropriate model and to introduce a new methodology for analysing sickness absence data as well as to demonstrate model applicability to complicated longitudinal data.

Keywords: Sickness absence, longitudinal data, methodologies, mix-distribution model.

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Authors: D. De-León-Escobedo, D. J. Delgado-Hernández, S. Pérez

Abstract:

A probabilistic formulation to assess the slopes safety under the hazard of strong storms is presented and illustrated through a slope in Mexico. The formulation is based on the classical safety factor (SF) used in practice to appraise the slope stability, but it is introduced the treatment of uncertainties, and the slope failure probability is calculated as the probability that SF<1. As the main hazard is the rainfall on the area, statistics of rainfall intensity and duration are considered and modeled with an exponential distribution. The expected life-cycle cost is assessed by considering a monetary value on the slope failure consequences. Alternative mitigation measures are simulated, and the formulation is used to get the measures driving to the optimal one (minimum life-cycle costs). For the example, the optimal mitigation measure is the reduction on the slope inclination angle.

Keywords: Expected life-cycle cost, failure probability, slopes failure, storms.

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Authors: Kuan-Chou Chen, Keh-Wen “Carin” Chuang

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates a model of an e-Learning system based on nowadays learning theory and distant education practice. The relationships in the model are designed to be simple and functional and do not necessarily represent any particular e- Learning environments. It is meant to be a generic e-Learning system model with implications for any distant education course instructional design. It allows online instructors to move away from the discrepancy between the courses and body of knowledge. The interrelationships of four primary sectors that are at the e-Learning system are presented in this paper. This integrated model includes [1] pedagogy, [2] technology, [3] teaching, and [4] learning. There are interactions within each of these sectors depicted by system loop map.

Keywords: e-Learning system, online courses instructionaldesign, integrated model, interrelationships.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, Financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model.

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Authors: Bu Jianhui, Bi Jinshun, Liu Mengxin, Luo Jiajun, Han Zhengsheng

Abstract:

The floating body effect is a serious problem for the PDSOI MOSFET, and the H-gate layout is frequently used as the body contact to eliminate this effect. Unfortunately, most of the standard commercial SOI MOSFET model is for the device with finger gate, the necessity of the new models for the H-gate device arises. A simulation model for the H-gate PDSOI MOSFET is proposed based on the 0.35μm PDSOI process developed by the Institute of Microelectronics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IMECAS), and then the model is well verified by the ring-oscillator.

Keywords: PDSOI H-gate Device model Body contact.

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Authors: S. Benzarti, H. Mhiri, H. Bournot

Abstract:

In the current work, a numerical parametric study was performed in order to model the fluid mechanics in the riser of a bubbling fluidized bed (BFB). The gas-solid flow was simulated by mean of a multi-fluid Eulerian model incorporating the kinetic theory for solid particles. The bubbling fluidized bed was simulated two dimensionally by mean of a Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) commercial software package, Fluent. The effects of using different inter-phase drag function (the drag model of Gidaspow, Syamlal and O-Brien and the EMMS drag model) on the model predictions were evaluated and compared. The results showed that the drag models of Gidaspow and Syamlal and O-Brien overestimated the drag force for the FCC particles and predicted a greater bed expansion in comparison to the EMMS drag model.

Keywords: Bubbling fluidized bed, CFD, drag model, EMMS

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Authors: Luke S. Carlos A. Thompson

Abstract:

The medical model of disability, though beneficial for the medical professional, is often exclusionary, restrictive and dehumanizing when applied to the lived experience of disability. As a result, a critique of this model was constructed called the social model of disability. Much of the language used to articulate the purpose behind the social model of disability can be summed up within the word inclusion. However, this essay asserts that inclusiveness is an incomplete aspiration. The social model, as it currently stands, does not aid in creating a society where those with impairments actually belong. Rather, the social model aids in lessening the visibility, or negative consequence of, difference. Therefore, the social model does not invite society to welcome those with physical and intellectual impairments. It simply aids society in ignoring the existence of impairment by removing explicit forms of exclusion. Rather than simple inclusion, then, this essay uses John Swinton’s concept of friendship and Jean Vanier’s understanding of belonging to better articulate the intended outcome of the social model—a society where everyone can belong.

Keywords: Belong, community, disability, exclusion, friendship, inclusion.

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Authors: Anna Avramenko, Heikki Haario

Abstract:

This paper reports the development and application of a 2D1 depth-averaged model. The main goal of this contribution is to apply the depth averaged equations to a wind park model in which the treatment of the geometry, introduced on the mathematical model by the mass and momentum source terms. The depth-averaged model will be used in future to find the optimal position of wind turbines in the wind park. κ − ε and 2D LES turbulence models were consider in this article. 2D CFD2 simulations for one hill was done to check the depth-averaged model in practise.

Keywords: Depth-averaged equations, numerical modeling, CFD

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Authors: Mehmet Savsar

Abstract:

This paper presents a model for an unreliable production line, which is operated according to demand with constant work-in-process (CONWIP). A simulation model is developed based on the discrete model and several case problems are analyzed using the model. The model is utilized to optimize storage space capacities at intermediate stages and the number of kanbans at the last stage, which is used to trigger the production at the first stage. Furthermore, effects of several line parameters on production rate are analyzed using design of experiments.

Keywords: Production line simulator, Push-pull system, JIT system, Constant WIP, Machine failures.

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Authors: Rozilawati Razali, Paul W. Garratt

Abstract:

Software maintenance, which involves making enhancements, modifications and corrections to existing software systems, consumes more than half of developer time. Specification comprehensibility plays an important role in software maintenance as it permits the understanding of the system properties more easily and quickly. The use of formal notation such as B increases a specification-s precision and consistency. However, the notation is regarded as being difficult to comprehend. Semi-formal notation such as the Unified Modelling Language (UML) is perceived as more accessible but it lacks formality. Perhaps by combining both notations could produce a specification that is not only accurate and consistent but also accessible to users. This paper presents an experiment conducted on a model that integrates the use of both UML and B notations, namely UML-B, versus a B model alone. The objective of the experiment was to evaluate the comprehensibility of a UML-B model compared to a traditional B model. The measurement used in the experiment focused on the efficiency in performing the comprehension tasks. The experiment employed a cross-over design and was conducted on forty-one subjects, including undergraduate and masters students. The results show that the notation used in the UML-B model is more comprehensible than the B model.

Keywords: Model comprehensibility, formal and semi-formal notation, empirical assessment.

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the two-stage model.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy.

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Authors: Farnaz G. Nezami, Mir B. Aryanezhad, Seyed J. Sadjadi

Abstract:

In this paper a nonlinear model is presented to demonstrate the relation between production and marketing departments. By introducing some functions such as pricing cost and market share loss functions it will be tried to show some aspects of market modelling which has not been regarded before. The proposed model will be a constrained signomial geometric programming model. For model solving, after variables- modifications an iterative technique based on the concept of geometric mean will be introduced to solve the resulting non-standard posynomial model which can be applied to a wide variety of models in non-standard posynomial geometric programming form. At the end a numerical analysis will be presented to accredit the validity of the mentioned model.

Keywords: Geometric programming, marketing, nonlinear optimization, production.

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Authors: Chakkrit Snae, Michael Brueckner

Abstract:

In this paper the authors present the framework of a system for assisting users through counseling on personal health, the Personal Health Assistance Service Expert System (PHASES). Personal health assistance systems need Personal Health Records (PHR), which support wellness activities, improve the understanding of personal health issues, enable access to data from providers of health services, strengthen health promotion, and in the end improve the health of the population. This is especially important in societies where the health costs increase at a higher rate than the overall economy. The most important elements of a healthy lifestyle are related to food (such as balanced nutrition and diets), activities for body fitness (such as walking, sports, fitness programs), and other medical treatments (such as massage, prescriptions of drugs). The PHASES framework uses an ontology of food, which includes nutritional facts, an expert system keeping track of personal health data that are matched with medical treatments, and a comprehensive data transfer between patients and the system.

Keywords: Personal health assistance service, expert system, ontologies, knowledge management, information technology.

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Authors: L. S. Zavodna, J. Zavodny Pospisil

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to identify the factors for sustainability in the accommodation sector. Although sustainability is a current trend in tourism, not many facilities know how to apply the concept in practice. This paper presents a model for the implementation of sustainability in hotels, hostels, campgrounds, or other facilities. First, there are identified sections of each accommodation facility, which can contribute to sustainability. Furthermore, concrete steps are presented to transfer this model into reality.

Keywords: Accommodation sector, model, sustainable tourism, sustainability.

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Authors: Hooman Jafarabadi

Abstract:

In this paper application of artificial intelligence for baby and children caring is studied. Then a new idea for injury prevention and safety announcement is presented by using digital image processing. The paper presents the structure of the proposed system. The system determines the possibility of the dangers for children and babies in yards, gardens and swimming pools or etc. In the presented idea, multi camera System is used and receiver videos are processed to find the hazardous areas then the entrance of children and babies in the determined hazardous areas are analyzed. In this condition the system does the programmed action capture, produce alarm or tone or send message.

Keywords: Baby and children Care and Nursing, Intelligent Control Systems for Nursing, Electronic Care and Nursing, Dangers and safety for children and babies, Motion detection, Expert danger alarm systems.

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Authors: N. Ebrahimi-Tofighi, M. ArdebiliPour, M. Shahabadi

Abstract:

In this paper, the effect of receive and/or transmit antenna spacing on the performance (BER vs. SNR) of multipleantenna systems is determined by using an RCS (Radar Cross Section) channel model. In this physical model, the scatterers existing in the propagation environment are modeled by their RCS so that the correlation of the receive signal complex amplitudes, i.e., both magnitude and phase, can be estimated. The proposed RCS channel model is then compared with classical models.

Keywords: MIMO system, Performance of system, Signalcorrelation, SIMO system, Wireless channel model.

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Authors: Mark Lin, Periklis Papadopoulos

Abstract:

This paper explores the aerodynamics of the formula racecar when a ‘halo’ driver-protection device is added to the chassis. The halo protection device was introduced at the start of the 2018 racing season as a safety measure against foreign object impacts that a driver may encounter when driving an open-wheel racecar. In the one-year since its introduction, the device has received wide acclaim for protecting the driver on two separate occasions. The benefit of such a safety device certainly cannot be disputed. However, by adding the halo device to a car, it changes the airflow around the vehicle, and most notably, to the engine air-intake and the rear wing. These negative effects in the air supply to the engine, and equally to the downforce created by the rear wing are studied in this paper using numerical technique, and the resulting CFD outputs are presented and discussed. Comparing racecar design prior to and after the introduction of the halo device, it is shown that the design of the air intake and the rear wing has not followed suit since the addition of the halo device. The reduction of engine intake mass flow due to the halo device is computed and presented for various speeds the car may be going. Because of the location of the halo device in relation to the air intake, airflow is directed away from the engine, making the engine perform less than optimal. The reduction is quantified in this paper to show the correspondence to reduce the engine output when compared to a similar car without the halo device. This paper shows that through aerodynamic arguments, the engine in a halo car will not receive unobstructed, clean airflow that a non-halo car does. Another negative effect is on the downforce created by the rear wing. Because the amount of downforce created by the rear wing is influenced by every component that comes before it, when a halo device is added upstream to the rear wing, airflow is obstructed, and less is available for making downforce. This reduction in downforce is especially dramatic as the speed is increased. This paper presents a graph of downforce over a range of speeds for a car with and without the halo device. Acknowledging that although driver safety is paramount, the negative effect of this safety device on the performance of the car should still be well understood so that any possible redesign to mitigate these negative effects can be taken into account in next year’s rules regulation.

Keywords: Automotive aerodynamics, halo device, downforce. engine intake.

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Authors: Ferdi Sönmez, Nihal Yorulmaz

Abstract:

Decision making on the true planning of the public transportation systems to serve potential users is a must for metropolitan areas. To take attraction of travelers to projected modes of transport, adequately fair overall travel times should be provided. In this fashion, other benefits such as lower traffic congestion, road safety and lower noise and atmospheric pollution may be earned. The congestion which comes with increasing demand of public transportation is becoming a part of our lives and making residents’ life difficult. Hence, regulations should be done to reduce this congestion. To provide a constructive and balanced regulation in public transportation systems, right stations should be located in right places. In this study, it is aimed to design and implement a Decision Support System (DSS) Application to determine the optimal bus stop places for public transport in Istanbul which is one of the biggest and oldest cities in the world. Required information is gathered from IETT (Istanbul Electricity, Tram and Tunnel) Enterprises which manages all public transportation services in Istanbul Metropolitan Area. By using the most real-like values, cost assignments are made. The cost is calculated with the help of equations produced by bi-level optimization model. For this study, 300 buses, 300 drivers, 10 lines and 110 stops are used. The user cost of each station and the operator cost taken place in lines are calculated. Some components like cost, security and noise pollution are considered as significant factors affecting the solution of set covering problem which is mentioned for identifying and locating the minimum number of possible bus stops. Preliminary research and model development for this study refers to previously published article of the corresponding author. Model results are represented with the intent of decision support to the specialists on locating stops effectively.

Keywords: User cost, bi-level optimization model, decision support, operator cost, transportation.

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Authors: Steady Mushayabasa

Abstract:

Typhoid fever is a communicable disease, found only in man and occurs due to systemic infection mainly by Salmonella typhi organism. The disease is endemic in many developing countries and remains a substantial public health problem despite recent progress in water and sanitation coverage. Globally, it is estimated that typhoid causes over 16 million cases of illness each year, resulting in over 600,000 deaths. A mathematical model for assessing the impact of educational campaigns on controlling the transmission dynamics of typhoid in the community, has been formulated and analyzed. The reproductive number has been computed. Stability of the model steady-states has been examined. The impact of educational campaigns on controlling the transmission dynamics of typhoid has been discussed through the basic reproductive number and numerical simulations. At its best the study suggests that targeted education campaigns, which are effective at stopping transmission of typhoid more than 40% of the time, will be highly effective at controlling the disease in the community. 

Keywords: Mathematical model, Typhoid, saturated incidence rate, treatment, reproductive number, sensitivity analysis.

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Authors: Terrence Chen, Thomas S. Huang

Abstract:

In this paper, we present the region based hidden Markov random field model (RBHMRF), which encodes the characteristics of different brain regions into a probabilistic framework for brain MR image segmentation. The recently proposed TV+L1 model is used for region extraction. By utilizing different spatial characteristics in different brain regions, the RMHMRF model performs beyond the current state-of-the-art method, the hidden Markov random field model (HMRF), which uses identical spatial information throughout the whole brain. Experiments on both real and synthetic 3D MR images show that the segmentation result of the proposed method has higher accuracy compared to existing algorithms.

Keywords: Finite Gaussian mixture model, Hidden Markov random field model, image segmentation, MRI.

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Authors: Philip Feig, Klaus Gschwendtner, Julian Schatz, Frank Diermeyer

Abstract:

Projects of accident research analysis are mostly focused on accidents involving personal damage. Property damage only has a high frequency of occurrence combined with high economic impact. This paper describes main influencing parameters for the extent of damage and presents a repair cost model. For a prospective evaluation method of the monetary effect of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), it is necessary to be aware of and quantify all influencing parameters. Furthermore, this method allows the evaluation of vehicle concepts in combination with an ADAS at an early point in time of the product development process. In combination with a property damage database and the introduced repair cost model relevant test scenarios for specific vehicle configurations and their individual property damage risk may be determined. Currently, equipment rates of ADAS are low and a purchase incentive for customers would be beneficial. The next ADAS generation will prevent property damage to a large extent or at least reduce damage severity. Both effects may be a purchasing incentive for the customer and furthermore contribute to increased traffic safety.

Keywords: Property damage analysis, effectiveness, ADAS, damage risk, accident research, accident scenarios.

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Authors: Aly Farag, Ayman El-Baz, Refaat Mohamed

Abstract:

In this paper we present a novel approach for density estimation. The proposed approach is based on using the logistic regression model to get initial density estimation for the given empirical density. The empirical data does not exactly follow the logistic regression model, so, there will be a deviation between the empirical density and the density estimated using logistic regression model. This deviation may be positive and/or negative. In this paper we use a linear combination of Gaussian (LCG) with positive and negative components as a model for this deviation. Also, we will use the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters of LCG. Experiments on real images demonstrate the accuracy of our approach.

Keywords: Logistic regression model, Expectationmaximization, Segmentation.

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Authors: Mahesh Chudasama, Harit Raval

Abstract:

Conical sections and shells made from metal plates are widely used in various industrial applications. 3-roller conical bending process is preferably used to produce such conical sections and shells. Bending mechanics involved in the process is complex and little work is done in this area. In the present paper an analytical model is developed to predict bending force which will be acting during 3-roller conical bending process. To verify the developed model, conical bending experiments are performed. Analytical results and experimental results were compared. Force predicted by analytical model is in close proximity of the experimental results. The error in the prediction is ±10%. Hence the model gives quite satisfactory results. Present model is also compared with the previously published bending force prediction model and it is found that the present model gives better results. The developed model can be used to estimate the bending force during 3-roller bending process and can be useful to the designers for designing the 3-roller conical bending machine.

Keywords: Bending-force, Experimental-verification, Internal-moment, Roll-bending.

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