Search results for: Behavior model simulation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 10837

Search results for: Behavior model simulation

6547 A Model to Study the Effect of Excess Buffers and Na+ Ions on Ca2+ Diffusion in Neuron Cell

Authors: Vikas Tewari, Shivendra Tewari, K. R. Pardasani

Abstract:

Calcium is a vital second messenger used in signal transduction. Calcium controls secretion, cell movement, muscular contraction, cell differentiation, ciliary beating and so on. Two theories have been used to simplify the system of reaction-diffusion equations of calcium into a single equation. One is excess buffer approximation (EBA) which assumes that mobile buffer is present in excess and cannot be saturated. The other is rapid buffer approximation (RBA), which assumes that calcium binding to buffer is rapid compared to calcium diffusion rate. In the present work, attempt has been made to develop a model for calcium diffusion under excess buffer approximation in neuron cells. This model incorporates the effect of [Na+] influx on [Ca2+] diffusion,variable calcium and sodium sources, sodium-calcium exchange protein, Sarcolemmal Calcium ATPase pump, sodium and calcium channels. The proposed mathematical model leads to a system of partial differential equations which have been solved numerically using Forward Time Centered Space (FTCS) approach. The numerical results have been used to study the relationships among different types of parameters such as buffer concentration, association rate, calcium permeability.

Keywords: Excess buffer approximation, Na+ influx, sodium calcium exchange protein, sarcolemmal calcium atpase pump, forward time centred space.

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6546 Synchronization of Chaos in a Food Web in Ecological Systems

Authors: Anuraj Singh, Sunita Gakkhar

Abstract:

The three-species food web model proposed and investigated by Gakkhar and Naji is known to have chaotic behaviour for a choice of parameters. An attempt has been made to synchronize the chaos in the model using bidirectional coupling. Numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the analytical results. Numerical results show that for higher value of coupling strength, chaotic synchronization is achieved. Chaos can be controlled to achieve stable synchronization in natural systems.

Keywords: Lyapunov Exponent, Bidirectional Coupling, ChaosSynchronization, Synchronization Manifold

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6545 Closely Parametrical Model for an Electrical Arc Furnace

Authors: Labar Hocine, Dgeghader Yacine, Kelaiaia Mounia Samira, Bounaya Kamel

Abstract:

To maximise furnace production it-s necessary to optimise furnace control, with the objectives of achieving maximum power input into the melting process, minimum network distortion and power-off time, without compromise on quality and safety. This can be achieved with on the one hand by an appropriate electrode control and on the other hand by a minimum of AC transformer switching. Electrical arc is a stochastic process; witch is the principal cause of power quality problems, including voltages dips, harmonic distortion, unbalance loads and flicker. So it is difficult to make an appropriate model for an Electrical Arc Furnace (EAF). The factors that effect EAF operation are the melting or refining materials, melting stage, electrode position (arc length), electrode arm control and short circuit power of the feeder. So arc voltages, current and power are defined as a nonlinear function of the arc length. In this article we propose our own empirical function of the EAF and model, for the mean stages of the melting process, thanks to the measurements in the steel factory.

Keywords: Modelling, electrical arc, melting, power, EAF, steel.

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6544 Transformation of the Business Model in an Occupational Health Care Company Embedded in an Emerging Personal Data Ecosystem: A Case Study in Finland

Authors: Tero Huhtala, Minna Pikkarainen, Saila Saraniemi

Abstract:

Information technology has long been used as an enabler of exchange for goods and services. Services are evolving from generic to personalized, and the reverse use of customer data has been discussed in both academia and industry for the past few years. This article presents the results of an empirical case study in the area of preventive health care services. The primary data were gathered in workshops, in which future personal data-based services were conceptualized by analyzing future scenarios from a business perspective. The aim of this study is to understand business model transformation in emerging personal data ecosystems. The work was done as a case study in the context of occupational healthcare. The results have implications to theory and practice, indicating that adopting personal data management principles requires transformation of the business model, which, if successfully managed, may provide access to more resources, potential to offer better value, and additional customer channels. These advantages correlate with the broadening of the business ecosystem. Expanding the scope of this study to include more actors would improve the validity of the research. The results draw from existing literature and are based on findings from a case study and the economic properties of the healthcare industry in Finland.

Keywords: Ecosystem, business model, personal data, preventive healthcare.

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6543 Experimental Simulation Set-Up for Validating Out-Of-The-Loop Mitigation when Monitoring High Levels of Automation in Air Traffic Control

Authors: Oliver Ohneiser, Francesca De Crescenzio, Gianluca Di Flumeri, Jan Kraemer, Bruno Berberian, Sara Bagassi, Nicolina Sciaraffa, Pietro Aricò, Gianluca Borghini, Fabio Babiloni

Abstract:

An increasing degree of automation in air traffic will also change the role of the air traffic controller (ATCO). ATCOs will fulfill significantly more monitoring tasks compared to today. However, this rather passive role may lead to Out-Of-The-Loop (OOTL) effects comprising vigilance decrement and less situation awareness. The project MINIMA (Mitigating Negative Impacts of Monitoring high levels of Automation) has conceived a system to control and mitigate such OOTL phenomena. In order to demonstrate the MINIMA concept, an experimental simulation set-up has been designed. This set-up consists of two parts: 1) a Task Environment (TE) comprising a Terminal Maneuvering Area (TMA) simulator as well as 2) a Vigilance and Attention Controller (VAC) based on neurophysiological data recording such as electroencephalography (EEG) and eye-tracking devices. The current vigilance level and the attention focus of the controller are measured during the ATCO’s active work in front of the human machine interface (HMI). The derived vigilance level and attention trigger adaptive automation functionalities in the TE to avoid OOTL effects. This paper describes the full-scale experimental set-up and the component development work towards it. Hence, it encompasses a pre-test whose results influenced the development of the VAC as well as the functionalities of the final TE and the two VAC’s sub-components.

Keywords: Automation, human factors, air traffic controller, MINIMA, OOTL, Out-Of-The-Loop, EEG, electroencephalography, HMI, human machine interface.

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6542 Model-Driven and Data-Driven Approaches for Crop Yield Prediction: Analysis and Comparison

Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

Abstract:

Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: Crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest.

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6541 CFD-Parametric Study in Stator Heat Transfer of an Axial Flux Permanent Magnet Machine

Authors: Alireza Rasekh, Peter Sergeant, Jan Vierendeels

Abstract:

This paper copes with the numerical simulation for convective heat transfer in the stator disk of an axial flux permanent magnet (AFPM) electrical machine. Overheating is one of the main issues in the design of AFMPs, which mainly occurs in the stator disk, so that it needs to be prevented. A rotor-stator configuration with 16 magnets at the periphery of the rotor is considered. Air is allowed to flow through openings in the rotor disk and channels being formed between the magnets and in the gap region between the magnets and the stator surface. The rotating channels between the magnets act as a driving force for the air flow. The significant non-dimensional parameters are the rotational Reynolds number, the gap size ratio, the magnet thickness ratio, and the magnet angle ratio. The goal is to find correlations for the Nusselt number on the stator disk according to these non-dimensional numbers. Therefore, CFD simulations have been performed with the multiple reference frame (MRF) technique to model the rotary motion of the rotor and the flow around and inside the machine. A minimization method is introduced by a pattern-search algorithm to find the appropriate values of the reference temperature. It is found that the correlations are fast, robust and is capable of predicting the stator heat transfer with a good accuracy. The results reveal that the magnet angle ratio diminishes the stator heat transfer, whereas the rotational Reynolds number and the magnet thickness ratio improve the convective heat transfer. On the other hand, there a certain gap size ratio at which the stator heat transfer reaches a maximum.

Keywords: Axial flux permanent magnet, CFD, magnet parameters, stator heat transfer.

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6540 Using Stresses Obtained from a Low Detailed FE Model and Located at a Reference Point to Quickly Calculate the Free-edge Stress Intensity Factors of Bonded Joints

Authors: F. Maamar, M. Sartor

Abstract:

The present study focuses on methods allowing a convenient and quick calculation of the SIFs in order to predict the static adhesive strength of bonded joints. A new SIF calculation method is proposed, based on the stresses obtained from a FE model at a reference point located in the adhesive layer at equal distance of the free-edge and of the two interfaces. It is shown that, even limiting ourselves to the two main modes, i.e. the opening and the shearing modes, and using the values of the stresses resulting from a low detailed FE model, an efficient calculation of the peeling stress at adhesive-substrate corners can be obtained by this way. The proposed method is interesting in that it can be the basis of a prediction tool that will allow the designer to quickly evaluate the SIFs characterizing a particular application without developing a detailed analysis.

Keywords: Adhesive layer, bounded joints, free-edge corner, stress intensity factor.

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6539 A TIPSO-SVM Expert System for Efficient Classification of TSTO Surrogates

Authors: Ali Sarosh, Dong Yun-Feng, Muhammad Umer

Abstract:

Fully reusable spaceplanes do not exist as yet. This implies that design-qualification for optimized highly-integrated forebody-inlet configuration of booster-stage vehicle cannot be based on archival data of other spaceplanes. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel TIPSO-SVM expert system methodology. A non-trivial problem related to optimization and classification of hypersonic forebody-inlet configuration in conjunction with mass-model of the two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) vehicle is solved. The hybrid-heuristic machine learning methodology is based on two-step improved particle swarm optimizer (TIPSO) algorithm and two-step support vector machine (SVM) data classification method. The efficacy of method is tested by first evolving an optimal configuration for hypersonic compression system using TIPSO algorithm; thereafter, classifying the results using two-step SVM method. In the first step extensive but non-classified mass-model training data for multiple optimized configurations is segregated and pre-classified for learning of SVM algorithm. In second step the TIPSO optimized mass-model data is classified using the SVM classification. Results showed remarkable improvement in configuration and mass-model along with sizing parameters.

Keywords: TIPSO-SVM expert system, TIPSO algorithm, two-step SVM method, aerothermodynamics, mass-modeling, TSTO vehicle.

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6538 A Development of Creative Instruction Model through Digital Media

Authors: Kathaleeya Chanda, Panupong Chanplin, Suppara Charoenpoom

Abstract:

This purposes of the development of creative instruction model through digital media are to: 1) enable learners to learn from instruction media application; 2) help learners implementing instruction media correctly and appropriately; and 3) facilitate learners to apply technology for searching information and practicing skills to implement technology creatively. The sample group consists of 130 cases of secondary students studying in Bo Kluea School, Bo Kluea Nuea Sub-district, Bo Kluea District, Nan Province. The probability sampling was selected through the simple random sampling and the statistics used in this research are percentage, mean, standard deviation and one group pretest – posttest design. The findings are summarized as follows: The congruence index of instruction media for occupation and technology subjects is appropriate. By comparing between learning achievements before implementing the instruction media and learning achievements after implementing the instruction media, it is found that the posttest achievements are higher than the pretest achievements with statistical significance at the level of .05. For the learning achievements from instruction media implementation, pretest mean is 16.24 while posttest mean is 26.28. Besides, pretest and posttest results are compared and differences of mean are tested, the test results show that the posttest achievements are higher than the pretest achievements with statistical significance at the level of .05. This can be interpreted that the learners achieve better learning progress.

Keywords: Teaching learning model, digital media, creative instruction model, facilitate learners.

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6537 Grading Fourteen Zones of Isfahan in Terms of the Impact of Globalization on the Urban Fabric of the City, Using the TOPSIS Model

Authors: A. Zahedi Yeganeh, A. Khademolhosseini, R. Mokhtari Malekabadi

Abstract:

Undoubtedly one of the most far-reaching and controversial topics considered in the past few decades, has been globalization. Globalization lies in the essence of the modern culture. It is a complex and rapidly expanding network of links and mutual interdependence that is an aspect of modern life; though some argue that this link existed since the beginning of human history. If we consider globalization as a dynamic social process in which the geographical constraints governing the political, economic, social and cultural relationships have been undermined, it might not be possible to simply describe its impact on the urban fabric. But since in this phenomenon the increase in communications of societies (while preserving the main cultural - regional characteristics) with one another and the increase in the possibility of influencing other societies are discussed, the need for more studies will be felt. The main objective of this study is to grade based on some globalization factors on urban fabric applying the TOPSIS model. The research method is descriptive - analytical and survey. For data analysis, the TOPSIS model and SPSS software were used and the results of GIS software with fourteen cities are shown on the map. The results show that the process of being influenced by the globalization of the urban fabric of fourteen zones of Isfahan was not similar and there have been large differences in this respect between city zones; the most affected areas are zones 5, 6 and 9 of the municipality and the least impact has been on the zones 4 and 3 and 2.

Keywords: Grading, Globalization, Urban fabric, 14 zones of Isfahan, TOPSIS model.

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6536 Agent-Based Modeling of Power Systems Infrastructure Cyber Security

Authors: Raman Paranjape

Abstract:

We present a new approach to evaluation of Cyber Security in Power Systems using the method of modeling the power systems Infrastructure using software agents. Interfaces between module and the home smart meter are recognized as the primary points of intrusion.

Keywords: Power Systems, Modeling and Simulation, Agent systems.

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6535 An Improved Single Point Closure Model Based on Dissipation Anisotropy for Geophysical Turbulent Flows

Authors: A. P. Joshi, H. V. Warrior, J. P. Panda

Abstract:

This paper is a continuation of the work carried out by various turbulence modelers in Oceanography on the topic of oceanic turbulent mixing. It evaluates the evolution of ocean water temperature and salinity by the appropriate modeling of turbulent mixing utilizing proper prescription of eddy viscosity. Many modelers in past have suggested including terms like shear, buoyancy and vorticity to be the parameters that decide the slow pressure strain correlation. We add to it the fact that dissipation anisotropy also modifies the correlation through eddy viscosity parameterization. This recalibrates the established correlation constants slightly and gives improved results. This anisotropization of dissipation implies that the critical Richardson’s number increases much beyond unity (to 1.66) to accommodate enhanced mixing, as is seen in reality. The model is run for a couple of test cases in the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) and the results are presented here.

Keywords: Anisotropy, GOTM, pressure-strain correlation, Richardson Critical number.

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6534 Scheduling a Project to Minimize Costs of Material Requirements

Authors: Amir Abbas Najafi, Nima Zoraghi, Fatemeh Azimi

Abstract:

Traditionally, project scheduling and material planning have been treated independently. In this research, a mixed integer programming model is presented to integrate project scheduling and materials ordering problems. The goal is to minimize the total material holding and ordering costs. In addition, an efficient metaheuristic algorithm is proposed to solve the model. The proposed algorithm is computationally tested, the results are analyzed, and conclusions are given.

Keywords: Project scheduling, metaheuristic, material ordering, optimization.

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6533 Controller Design for Euler-Bernoulli Smart Structures Using Robust Decentralized FOS via Reduced Order Modeling

Authors: T.C. Manjunath, B. Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

This paper features the modeling and design of a Robust Decentralized Fast Output Sampling (RDFOS) Feedback control technique for the active vibration control of a smart flexible multimodel Euler-Bernoulli cantilever beams for a multivariable (MIMO) case by retaining the first 6 vibratory modes. The beam structure is modeled in state space form using the concept of piezoelectric theory, the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory and the Finite Element Method (FEM) technique by dividing the beam into 4 finite elements and placing the piezoelectric sensor / actuator at two finite element locations (positions 2 and 4) as collocated pairs, i.e., as surface mounted sensor / actuator, thus giving rise to a multivariable model of the smart structure plant with two inputs and two outputs. Five such multivariable models are obtained by varying the dimensions (aspect ratios) of the aluminium beam. Using model order reduction technique, the reduced order model of the higher order system is obtained based on dominant Eigen value retention and the Davison technique. RDFOS feedback controllers are designed for the above 5 multivariable-multimodel plant. The closed loop responses with the RDFOS feedback gain and the magnitudes of the control input are obtained and the performance of the proposed multimodel smart structure system is evaluated for vibration control.

Keywords: Smart structure, Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, Fastoutput sampling feedback control, Finite Element Method, Statespace model, Vibration control, LMI, Model order Reduction.

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6532 GPS Devices to Increase Efficiency of Indian Auto-Rickshaw Segment

Authors: Sanchay Vaidya, Sourabh Gupta, Gouresh Singhal

Abstract:

There are various modes of transport in metro cities in India, auto-rickshaws being one of them. Auto-rickshaws provide connectivity to all the places in the city offering last mile connectivity. Among all the modes of transport the auto-rickshaw industry is the most unorganized and inefficient. Although unions exist in different cities they aren’t good enough to cope up with the upcoming advancements in the field of technology. An introduction of simple technology in this field may do wonders and help increase the revenues. This paper aims to organize this segment under a single umbrella using GPS devices and mobile phones. The paper includes surveys of about 300 auto-rickshaw drivers and 1000 plus commuters across 6 metro cities in India. Carrying out research and analysis provides a base for the development of this model and implementation of this innovative technique, which is discussed in this paper in detail with ample emphasis given on the implementation of this model.

Keywords: Auto-rickshaws, Business Model, GPS device, Mobile application.

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6531 Mathematical Modeling of SISO based Timoshenko Structures – A Case Study

Authors: T.C. Manjunath, Student Member, B. Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

This paper features the mathematical modeling of a single input single output based Timoshenko smart beam. Further, this mathematical model is used to design a multirate output feedback based discrete sliding mode controller using Bartoszewicz law to suppress the flexural vibrations. The first 2 dominant vibratory modes is retained. Here, an application of the discrete sliding mode control in smart systems is presented. The algorithm uses a fast output sampling based sliding mode control strategy that would avoid the use of switching in the control input and hence avoids chattering. This method does not need the measurement of the system states for feedback as it makes use of only the output samples for designing the controller. Thus, this methodology is more practical and easy to implement.

Keywords: Smart structure, Timoshenko beam theory, Discretesliding mode control, Bartoszewicz law, Finite Element Method, State space model, Vibration control, Mathematical model, SISO.

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6530 An Extended Model for Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security in the Agrifood Sector

Authors: Ioannis Manikas

Abstract:

The increased consumer demand for environmentally friendly production and distribution practices and the stricter environmental regulations turned environmental aspects into important criteria in business decision-making. On the other hand, Food and Nutrition Security (FNS) has evolved dramatically during the last decades in theory and practice serving as a reference point for exchanging experiences among all agents involved in programs and projects to fostering policy and strategy development. Global pressures make it more important than ever to gain a better understanding of the contribution that agrifood businesses make to FNS and to examine ways to make them more resilient in an increasingly globalized and uncertain world. This study extends the standard three-dimensional model of sustainability to include two more dimensions: A technological dimension and a policy/political dimension. Apart from the economic, environmental and social dimensions regularly used in sustainability literature, the extended model will accurately represent the measures and policies addressing food and nutrition security.

Keywords: Food and nutrition security, sustainability, food safety, resilience.

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6529 Performance Analysis of Evolutionary ANN for Output Prediction of a Grid-Connected Photovoltaic System

Authors: S.I Sulaiman, T.K Abdul Rahman, I. Musirin, S. Shaari

Abstract:

This paper presents performance analysis of the Evolutionary Programming-Artificial Neural Network (EPANN) based technique to optimize the architecture and training parameters of a one-hidden layer feedforward ANN model for the prediction of energy output from a grid connected photovoltaic system. The ANN utilizes solar radiation and ambient temperature as its inputs while the output is the total watt-hour energy produced from the grid-connected PV system. EP is used to optimize the regression performance of the ANN model by determining the optimum values for the number of nodes in the hidden layer as well as the optimal momentum rate and learning rate for the training. The EPANN model is tested using two types of transfer function for the hidden layer, namely the tangent sigmoid and logarithmic sigmoid. The best transfer function, neural topology and learning parameters were selected based on the highest regression performance obtained during the ANN training and testing process. It is observed that the best transfer function configuration for the prediction model is [logarithmic sigmoid, purely linear].

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), Correlation coefficient (R), Evolutionary programming-ANN (EPANN), Photovoltaic (PV), logarithmic sigmoid and tangent sigmoid.

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6528 The Influence of Gravity on The Temporal Instability of Viscoelastic Liquid Curved Jets

Authors: Abdullah Madhi Alsharif, Jamal Uddin

Abstract:

A liquid curved jet has many applications in different industrial and engineering processes, such as the prilling process for generating small spherical pellets (fertilizer or magnesium). The liquids used are usually molten and contain small quantities of polymers and therefore can be modelled as non-Newtonian liquids. In this paper, we model the viscoelastic liquid jet by using the Oldroyd- B model. An asymptotic analysis has been used to simplify the governing equations. Furthermore, the trajectory and a linear temporal stability in the presence of gravity and rotation have been determined.

Keywords: gravity, prilling, rotation, viscoelastic jets.

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6527 Differences in Stress and Total Deformation Due to Muscle Attachment to the Femur

Authors: Jeong-Woo Seo, Jin-Seung Choi, Dong-Won Kang, Jae-Hyuk Bae, Gye-Rae Tack

Abstract:

To achieve accurate and precise results of finite element analysis (FEA) of bones, it is important to represent the load/boundary conditions as identical as possible to the human body such as the bone properties, the type and force of the muscles, the contact force of the joints, and the location of the muscle attachment. In this study, the difference in the Von-Mises stress and the total deformation was compared by classifying them into Case 1, which shows the actual anatomical form of the muscle attached to the femur when the same muscle force was applied, and Case 2, which gives a simplified representation of the attached location. An inverse dynamical musculoskeletal model was simulated using data from an actual walking experiment to complement the accuracy of the muscular force, the input value of FEA. The FEA method using the results of the muscular force that were calculated through the simulation showed that the maximum Von-Mises stress and the maximum total deformation in Case 2 were underestimated by 8.42% and 6.29%, respectively, compared to Case 1. The torsion energy and bending moment at each location of the femur occurred via the stress ingredient. Due to the geometrical/morphological feature of the femur of having a long bone shape when the stress distribution is wide, as shown in Case 1, a greater Von-Mises stress and total deformation are expected from the sum of the stress ingredients. More accurate results can be achieved only when the muscular strength and the attachment location in the FEA of the bones and the attachment form are the same as those in the actual anatomical condition under the various moving conditions of the human body.

Keywords: Musculoskeletal modeling, Finite element analysis, Von-Mises stress, Deformation, Muscle attachment.

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6526 Retaining Users in a Commercially-Supported Social Network

Authors: Sasiphan Nitayaprapha

Abstract:

A commercially-supported social network has become an emerging channel for an organization to communicate with and provide services to customers. The success of the commercially-supported social network depends on the ability of the organization to keep the customers in participating in the network. Drawing from the theories of information adoption, information systems continuance, and web usability, the author develops a model to explore how a commercially-supported social network can encourage customers to continue participating and using the information in the network. The theoretical model will be proved through an online survey of customers using the commercially-supported social networking sites of several high technology companies operating in the same sector. The result will be compared with previous studies to learn about the explanatory power of the research model, and to identify the main factors determining users’ intention to continue using a commercially-supported social network. Theoretical and practical implications and limitations are discussed.

Keywords: Social network, Information adoption, Information systems continuance, Web usability, User satisfaction.

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6525 Affine Radial Basis Function Neural Networks for the Robust Control of Hyperbolic Distributed Parameter Systems

Authors: Eleni Aggelogiannaki, Haralambos Sarimveis

Abstract:

In this work, a radial basis function (RBF) neural network is developed for the identification of hyperbolic distributed parameter systems (DPSs). This empirical model is based only on process input-output data and used for the estimation of the controlled variables at specific locations, without the need of online solution of partial differential equations (PDEs). The nonlinear model that is obtained is suitably transformed to a nonlinear state space formulation that also takes into account the model mismatch. A stable robust control law is implemented for the attenuation of external disturbances. The proposed identification and control methodology is applied on a long duct, a common component of thermal systems, for a flow based control of temperature distribution. The closed loop performance is significantly improved in comparison to existing control methodologies.

Keywords: Hyperbolic Distributed Parameter Systems, Radial Basis Function Neural Networks, H∞ control, Thermal systems.

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6524 Mathematical Model of the Respiratory System – Comparison of the Total Lung Impedance in the Adult and Neonatal Lung

Authors: M. Rozanek, K. Roubik

Abstract:

A mathematical model of the respiratory system is introduced in this study. Geometrical dimensions of the respiratory system were used to compute the acoustic properties of the respiratory system using the electro-acoustic analogy. The effect of the geometrical proportions of the respiratory system is observed in the paper.

Keywords: Electro-acoustic analogy, total lung impedance, mechanical parameters, respiratory system.

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6523 An Integrated Model of Urban Conservation and Revitalization from the Point of Immigration and Its Effects on Reyhan Urban Site in Turkey as a Case Study

Authors: Ozlem Koprulu Bagbanci, M.Bilal Bagbanci

Abstract:

This paper presents the effects of migration at the urban sites with an integrated model under the sustainable local development policies for the conservation and revitalization of the site areas as a case at Reyhan heritage site in Bursa. It is known as the “City of immigrants" because of its richness of cultural plurality. The city has always regarded the dynamic impact of immigration as a positive contribution. As a result of this situation, the city created the earliest urbanization practices: being the first capital city of the Ottoman Empire. Bursa created the first modern movement practices and set the first Organized Industrial Zone. The most important aim of the study is to be offer a model for the similar areas with the context of conservation and revitalization of the historical areas, subjected to the local integrated sustainable development policies of local goverments.

Keywords: integration, migration, local policies, sustainability.

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6522 A Risk Assessment for the Small Hive Beetle Based on Meteorological Standard Measurements

Authors: J. Junk, M. Eickermann

Abstract:

The Small Hive Beetle, Aethina tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) is a parasite for honey bee colonies, Apis mellifera, and was recently introduced to the European continent, accidentally. Based on the literature, a model was developed by using regional meteorological variables (daily values of minimum, maximum and mean air temperature as well as mean soil temperature at 50 mm depth) to calculate the time-point of hive invasion by A. tumida in springtime, the development duration of pupae as well as the number of generations of A. tumida per year. Luxembourg was used as a test region for our model for 2005 to 2013. The model output indicates a successful surviving of the Small Hive Beetle in Luxembourg with two up to three generations per year. Additionally, based on our meteorological data sets a first migration of SHB to apiaries can be expected from mid of March up to April. Our approach can be transferred easily to other countries to estimate the risk potential for a successful introduction and spreading of A. tumida in Western Europe.

Keywords: Aethina tumida, air temperature, larval development, soil temperature.

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6521 Local Stability of Equilibria: Leptospirosis

Authors: Rujira Kongnuy

Abstract:

Leptospirosis is recognized as an important zoonosis in tropical regions well as an important animal disease with substantial loss in production. In this study, the model for the transmission of the Leptospirosis disease to human population are discussed. Model is described the vector population dynamics and the Leptospirosis transmission to the human population are discussed. Local analysis of equilibria are given. We confirm the results by using numerical results.

Keywords: Eigenvalues, Leptospirosis, Local Stability, Numerical Result

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6520 Establishing Econometric Modeling Equations for Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in the Nile Delta of Egypt under Current Climate Conditions

Authors: Abdelgawad, Salah El-Tahawy

Abstract:

This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to December, 2015. The obtained results indicated that there was a significant association between the degree of the LSD outbreaks and the investigated climate factors (temperature, wind speed, and humidity) and the outbreaks peaked during the months of June, July, and August and gradually decreased to the lowest rate in January, February, and December. The model obtained depicted that the increment of these climate factors were associated with evidently increment on LSD outbreaks on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The model validation process was done by the root mean square error (RMSE) and means bias (MB) which compared the number of LSD outbreaks expected with the number of observed outbreaks and estimated the confidence level of the model. The value of RMSE was 1.38% and MB was 99.50% confirming that this established model described the current association between the LSD outbreaks and the change on climate factors and also can be used as a base for predicting the of LSD outbreaks depending on the climatic change on the future.

Keywords: LSD, climate factors, econometric models, Nile Delta.

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6519 Estimation of Functional Response Model by Supervised Functional Principal Component Analysis

Authors: Hyon I. Paek, Sang Rim Kim, Hyon A. Ryu

Abstract:

In functional linear regression, one typical problem is to reduce dimension. Compared with multivariate linear regression, functional linear regression is regarded as an infinite-dimensional case, and the main task is to reduce dimensions of functional response and functional predictors. One common approach is to adapt functional principal component analysis (FPCA) on functional predictors and then use a few leading functional principal components (FPC) to predict the functional model. The leading FPCs estimated by the typical FPCA explain a major variation of the functional predictor, but these leading FPCs may not be mostly correlated with the functional response, so they may not be significant in the prediction for response. In this paper, we propose a supervised FPCA method for a functional response model with FPCs obtained by considering the correlation of the functional response. Our method would have a better prediction accuracy than the typical FPCA method.

Keywords: Supervised, functional principal component analysis, functional response, functional linear regression.

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6518 Ordinal Regression with Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics: A Case Study of an Orienteering Race

Authors: Joonas Pääkkönen

Abstract:

In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

Keywords: Fenton-Wilkinson approximation, German tank problem, log-normal distribution, order statistics, ordinal regression, orienteering, sports analytics, sports modeling.

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