Search results for: Large eddy simulation.

Authors: Gábor Szűcs, Gábor Neszveda, Xin Fang

Abstract:

In this paper the General Game problem is described. In this problem the competition or cooperation dilemma occurs as the two basic types of strategies. The strategy possibilities have been analyzed for finding winning strategy in uncertain situations (no information about the number of players and their strategy types). The winning strategy is missing, but a good solution can be found by simulation by varying the ratio of the two types of strategies. This new method has been used in a real contest with human players, where the created strategies by simulation have reached very good ranks. This construction can be applied in other real social games as well.

Keywords: competition, cooperation, finding good strategy, General Game

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Authors: Zina Ghiloufi, Tahar Khir

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A transient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed to determine the velocity and temperature distribution in different positions cold room during pre-cooling of dates. The turbulence model used is the k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) with the standard wall function, the air. The numerical results obtained show that cooling rate is not uniform inside the room; the product at the medium of room has a slower cooling rate. This cooling heterogeneity has a large effect on the energy consumption during cold storage.

Keywords: Numerical simulation, CFD, k-ω (SST), cold room, dates, cooling rate.

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Authors: S.C. Chin, N. Shafiq, M.F. Nuruddin

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This paper presents the study of strengthening R/C beams with large circular and square opening located at flexure zone by Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) laminates. A total of five beams were tested to failure under four point loading to investigate the structural behavior including crack patterns, failure mode, ultimate load and load deflection behaviour. Test results show that large opening at flexure reduces the beam capacity and stiffness; and increases cracking and deflection. A strengthening configuration was designed for each un-strengthened beams based on their respective crack patterns. CFRP laminates remarkably restore the beam capacity of beam with large circular opening at flexure location while 10% re-gain of beam capacity with square opening. The use of CFRP laminates with the designed strengthening configuration could significantly reduce excessive cracking and deflection and increase the ultimate capacity and stiffness of beam.

Keywords: CFRP, large opening, R/C beam, strengthening

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Authors: Mustafa A. Al-Refai

Abstract:

This paper presents the optimal design and simulation of a grid-connected Photovoltaic (PV) system to supply electric power to meet the energy demand by Electrical Department in University of Tripoli Libya. Solar radiation is the key factor determining electricity produced by photovoltaic (PV) systems. This paper is designed to develop a novel method to calculate the solar photovoltaic generation capacity on the basis of Mean Global Solar Radiation data available for Tripoli Libya and finally develop a system design of possible plant capacity for the available roof area. MatLab/Simulink Programming tools and monthly average solar radiation data are used for this design and simulation. The specifications of equipments are provided based on the availability of the components in the market. Simulation results and analyses are presented to validate the proposed system configuration.

Keywords: Photovoltaic (PV), solar energy, solar irradiation, Simulink.

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Authors: Z. Popova, L. S. Pereira, М. Ivanova, P. Alexandrova, K. Doneva, V. Alexandrov, M. Kercheva

Abstract:

This study assesses the vulnerability of Bulgarian agriculture to drought using the WINISAREG model and seasonal standard precipitation index SPI(2) for the period 1951-2004. This model was previously validated for maize on soils of different water holding capacity (TAW) in various locations. Simulations are performed for Plovdiv, Stara Zagora and Sofia. Results relative to Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW (180 mm m-1) net irrigation requirements (NIRs) range 0-40 mm in wet years and 350-380 mm in dry years. In soils of small TAW (116 mm m-1), NIRs reach 440 mm in the very dry year. NIRs in Sofia are about 80 mm smaller. Rainfed maize is associated with great yield variability (29%91%) were found for seasonal agricultural drought relating the SPI (2) for “July-Aug" with the simulated RYD of rainfed maize while in Stara Zagora and Sofia the relationships are less accurate (R2>71%). When rainfed maize is grown on soils of large TAW economical losses are produced when high peak season SPI (2) < -0.50 in Plovdiv/Stara Zagora and SPI (2) < -0.90 in Sofia. The corresponding NIR thresholds were identified.

Keywords: Drought vulnerability, ISAREG simulation model, South Bulgaria, SPI-index

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Authors: Y. Z. Wu, Z. Dong, S. K. You

Abstract:

Global approximation using metamodel for complex mathematical function or computer model over a large variable domain is often needed in sensibility analysis, computer simulation, optimal control, and global design optimization of complex, multiphysics systems. To overcome the limitations of the existing response surface (RS), surrogate or metamodel modeling methods for complex models over large variable domain, a new adaptive and regressive RS modeling method using quadratic functions and local area model improvement schemes is introduced. The method applies an iterative and Latin hypercube sampling based RS update process, divides the entire domain of design variables into multiple cells, identifies rougher cells with large modeling error, and further divides these cells along the roughest dimension direction. A small number of additional sampling points from the original, expensive model are added over the small and isolated rough cells to improve the RS model locally until the model accuracy criteria are satisfied. The method then combines local RS cells to regenerate the global RS model with satisfactory accuracy. An effective RS cells sorting algorithm is also introduced to improve the efficiency of model evaluation. Benchmark tests are presented and use of the new metamodeling method to replace complex hybrid electrical vehicle powertrain performance model in vehicle design optimization and optimal control are discussed.

Keywords: Global approximation, polynomial response surface, domain decomposition, domain combination, multiphysics modeling, hybrid powertrain optimization

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Authors: Syed Iftekhar Ali, M. S. Islam

Abstract:

In this paper we present an energy efficient match-line (ML) sensing scheme for high-speed ternary content-addressable memory (TCAM). The proposed scheme isolates the sensing unit of the sense amplifier from the large and variable ML capacitance. It employs feedback in the sense amplifier to successfully detect a match while keeping the ML voltage swing low. This reduced voltage swing results in large energy saving. Simulation performed using 130nm 1.2V CMOS logic shows at least 30% total energy saving in our scheme compared to popular current race (CR) scheme for similar search speed. In terms of speed, dynamic energy, peak power consumption and transistor count our scheme also shows better performance than mismatch-dependant (MD) power allocation technique which also employs feedback in the sense amplifier. Additionally, the implementation of our scheme is simpler than CR or MD scheme because of absence of analog control voltage and programmable delay circuit as have been used in those schemes.

Keywords: content-addressable memory, energy consumption, feedback, peak power, sensing scheme, sense amplifier, ternary.

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Authors: Seong-Su Jeon, Seong-Jin Kim, Goon-Cherl Park

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In this study, direct numerical simulation for the bubble condensation in the subcooled boiling flow was performed. The main goal was to develop the CFD modeling for the bubble condensation and to evaluate the accuracy of the VOF model with the developed CFD modeling. CFD modeling for the bubble condensation was developed by modeling the source terms in the governing equations of VOF model using UDF. In the modeling, the amount of condensation was determined using the interfacial heat transfer coefficient obtained from the bubble velocity, liquid temperature and bubble diameter every time step. To evaluate the VOF model using the CFD modeling for the bubble condensation, CFD simulation results were compared with SNU experimental results such as bubble volume and shape, interfacial area, bubble diameter and bubble velocity. Simulation results predicted well the behavior of the actual condensing bubble. Therefore, it can be concluded that the VOF model using the CFD modeling for the bubble condensation will be a useful computational fluid dynamics tool for analyzing the behavior of the condensing bubble in a wide range of the subcooled boiling flow.

Keywords: Bubble condensation, CFD modeling, Subcooled boiling flow, VOF model.

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Authors: O. E. Akay, E. Güzel, M. T. Özcan

Abstract:

The pepper has quite a rich variety. The development of a single harvesting machine for all kinds of peppers is a difficult research topic. By development of harvesting mechanisms, we could be able to facilitate the pepper harvesting problems. In this study, an experimental harvesting machine was designed for chili pepper. Four-bar mechanism was used for the design of the prototype harvesting machine. At the result of harvest trials, 80% of peppers were harvested and 8% foreign materials were collected. These results have provided some tips on how to apply to large-scale pepper Four-bar mechanism of the harvest machine.

Keywords: Kinematic simulation, four bar linkage, harvest mechanization, pepper harvest.

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Authors: Parham Azimi, Hamid Reza Charmchi

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In this research, we have developed a new efficient heuristic algorithm for the dynamic facility layout problem with budget constraint (DFLPB). This heuristic algorithm combines two mathematical programming methods such as discrete event simulation and linear integer programming (IP) to obtain a near optimum solution. In the proposed algorithm, the non-linear model of the DFLP has been changed to a pure integer programming (PIP) model. Then, the optimal solution of the PIP model has been used in a simulation model that has been designed in a similar manner as the DFLP for determining the probability of assigning a facility to a location. After a sufficient number of runs, the simulation model obtains near optimum solutions. Finally, to verify the performance of the algorithm, several test problems have been solved. The results show that the proposed algorithm is more efficient in terms of speed and accuracy than other heuristic algorithms presented in previous works found in the literature.

Keywords: Budget constraint, Dynamic facility layout problem, Integer programming, Simulation

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Authors: Ali E. Abbas

Abstract:

This paper summarizes some of the discussions that occurred in a workshop in West Virginia, U.S.A which was sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) in February 2016. The goal of the workshop was to explore the opportunities and challenges for applying systems engineering in large enterprises, and some of the issues that still persist. The main topics of the discussion included challenges with elaboration and abstraction in large systems, interfacing physical and social systems, and the need for axiomatic frameworks for large enterprises. We summarize these main points of discussion drawing parallels with decision making in organizations to instigate research in these discussion areas.

Keywords: Decision analysis, systems engineering, framing, value creation.

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Authors: K. Shoylekova, K. Grigorova

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The Petri nets are the first standard for business process modeling. Most probably, it is one of the core reasons why all new standards created afterwards have to be so reformed as to reach the stage of mapping the new standard onto Petri nets. The paper presents a business process repository based on a universal database. The repository provides the possibility the data about a given process to be stored in three different ways. Business process repository is developed with regard to the reformation of a given model to a Petri net in order to be easily simulated. Two different techniques for business process simulation based on Petri nets - Yasper and Woflan are discussed. Their advantages and drawbacks are outlined. The way of simulating business process models, stored in the Business process repository is shown.

Keywords: Business process repository, Petri nets, Simulation, Woflan, Yasper.

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Authors: Aussadavut Dumrongsiri

Abstract:

Web-based technologies have created numerous opportunities for electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) communication. There are many factors that affect customer adoption and decisionmaking process. However, only a few researches focus on some factors such as the membership time of forum and propensity to trust. Using a discrete-time event simulation to simulate a diffusion model along with a consumer decision model, the study shows the effect of each factor on adoption of opinions on on-line discussion forum. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of factor affecting information adoption and decision making process. The model is constructed to test quantitative aspects of each factor. The simulation study shows the membership time and the propensity to trust has an effect on information adoption and purchasing decision. The result of simulation shows that the longer the membership time in the communities and the higher propensity to trust could lead to the higher demand rates because consumers find it easier and faster to trust the person in the community and then adopt the eWOM. Other implications for both researchers and practitioners are provided.

Keywords: word of mouth, simulation, consumer behavior, ebusiness, marketing, diffusion process.

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Authors: R. F. B. Gonçalves, E. N. Iwama, J. A. F. F. Rocco, K. Iha

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Propellants based on Hydroxyl Terminated Polybutadiene/Ammonium Perchlorate (HTPB/AP) are the most commonly used in most of the rocket engines used by the Brazilian Armed Forces. This work aimed at the possibility of extending its useful life (currently in 10 years) by performing kinetic-chemical analyzes of its energetic material via Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and also performing computer simulation of aging process using the software Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS). Thermal analysis via DSC was performed in triplicates and in three heating ratios (5 ºC, 10 ºC, and 15 ºC) of rocket motor with 11 years shelf-life, using the Arrhenius equation to obtain its activation energy, using Ozawa and Kissinger kinetic methods, allowing comparison with manufacturing period data (standard motor). In addition, the kinetic parameters of internal pressure of the combustion chamber in 08 rocket engines with 11 years of shelf-life were also acquired, for comparison purposes with the engine start-up data.

Keywords: Shelf-life, thermal analysis, Ozawa method, Kissinger method, LAMMPS software, thrust.

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Authors: B. Bakken, O. Boe

Abstract:

The Norwegian Military Academy (Army) has initiated a project with the main ambition to explore possible avenues to enhancing operational effectiveness through an increased use of simulation-based training and exercises. Within a cost/benefit framework, we discuss opportunities and limitations of vertical and horizontal integration of the existing tactical training system. Vertical integration implies expanding the existing training system to span the full range of training from tactical level (platoon, company) to command and staff level (battalion, brigade). Horizontal integration means including other domains than army tactics and staff procedures in the training, such as military ethics, foreign languages, leadership and decision making. We discuss each of the integration options with respect to purpose and content of training, "best practice" for organising and conducting simulation-based training, and suggest how to evaluate training procedures and measure learning outcomes. We conclude by giving guidelines towards further explorative work and possible implementation.

Keywords: Effectiveness, integration, simulation, training.

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Authors: S. MacDonald, A. Manuel, R. Law, N. Bandruak, A. Dubrowski, V. Curran, J. Smith-Young, K. Simmons, A. Warren

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High fidelity human patient simulation has been used for many years by health sciences education programs to foster critical thinking, engage learners, improve confidence, improve communication, and enhance psychomotor skills. Unfortunately, there is a paucity of research on the use of high fidelity human patient simulation to foster teamwork among nursing, medicine and pharmacy undergraduate students. This study compared the impact of high fidelity and low fidelity simulation education on teamwork among nursing, medicine and pharmacy students. For the purpose of this study, two innovative teaching scenarios were developed based on the care of an adult patient experiencing acute anaphylaxis: one high fidelity using a human patient simulator and one low fidelity using case based discussions. A within subjects, pretest-posttest, repeated measures design was used with two-treatment levels and random assignment of individual subjects to teams of two or more professions. A convenience sample of twenty-four (n=24) undergraduate students participated, including: nursing (n=11), medicine (n=9), and pharmacy (n=4). The Interprofessional Teamwork Questionnaire was used to assess for changes in students’ perception of their functionality within the team, importance of interprofessional collaboration, comprehension of roles, and confidence in communication and collaboration. Student satisfaction was also assessed. Students reported significant improvements in their understanding of the importance of interprofessional teamwork and of the roles of nursing and medicine on the team after participation in both the high fidelity and the low fidelity simulation. However, only participants in the high fidelity simulation reported a significant improvement in their ability to function effectively as a member of the team. All students reported that both simulations were a meaningful learning experience and all students would recommend both experiences to other students. These findings suggest there is merit in both high fidelity and low fidelity simulation as a teaching and learning approach to foster teamwork among undergraduate nursing, medicine and pharmacy students. However, participation in high fidelity simulation may provide a more realistic opportunity to practice and function as an effective member of the interprofessional health care team.

Keywords: Acute anaphylaxis, high fidelity human patient simulation, low fidelity simulation, interprofessional education.

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Authors: Theodore N.S. Karfakis, Anna Andrade, Carolina Volkmer-Castilho, Dennis R. Valle, Eric Arets, Paul van Gardingen

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The aim of the work presented here was to either use existing forest dynamic simulation models or calibrate a new one both within the SYMFOR framework with the purpose of examining changes in stand level basal area and functional composition in response to selective logging considering trees > 10 cm d.b.h for two areas of undisturbed Amazonian non flooded tropical forest in Brazil and one in Peru. Model biological realism was evaluated for forest in the undisturbed and selectively logged state and it was concluded that forest dynamics were realistically represented. Results of the logging simulation experiments showed that in relation to undisturbed forest simulation subject to no form of harvesting intervention there was a significant amount of change over a 90 year simulation period that was positively proportional to the intensity of logging. Areas which had in the dynamic equilibrium of undisturbed forest a greater proportion of a specific ecological guild of trees known as the light hardwoods (LHW’s) seemed to respond more favorably in terms of less deviation but only within a specific range of baseline forest composition beyond which compositional diversity became more important. These finds are in line partially with practical management experience and partiality basic systematics theory respectively.

Keywords: Amazonbasin, ecological species guild, selective logging, simulation modeling.

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Authors: N. Dahbi, M. Daoudi, A.Belghachi

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The present work deals with the calculation of transport properties of Hg0.8Cd0.2Te (MCT) semiconductor in degenerate case. Due to their energy-band structure, this material becomes degenerate at moderate doping densities, which are around 1015 cm-3, so that the usual Maxwell-Boltzmann approximation is inaccurate in the determination of transport parameters. This problem is faced by using Fermi-Dirac (F-D) statistics, and the non-parabolic behavior of the bands may be approximated by the Kane model. The Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is used here to determinate transport parameters: drift velocity, mean energy and drift mobility versus electric field and the doped densities. The obtained results are in good agreement with those extracted from literature.

Keywords: degeneracy case, Hg0.8Cd0.2Te semiconductor, Monte Carlo simulation, transport parameters.

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Authors: Lucjan Setlak, Emil Ruda

Abstract:

The subject of this paper is to review, comparative analysis and simulation of selected components of power electronic systems (PES), consistent with the concept of a more electric aircraft (MEA). Comparative analysis and simulation in software environment MATLAB / Simulink were carried out on the base of a group of representatives of civil aircraft (B-787, A-380) and military (F-22 Raptor, F-35) in the context of multi-pulse converters used in them (6- and 12-pulse, and 18- and 24-pulse), which are key components of high-tech electronics on-board power systems of autonomous power systems (ASE) of modern aircraft (airplanes of the future).

Keywords: Converters, electrical machinery, more electric aircraft, MEA, power electronics systems, PES.

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Authors: R. Sammoura

Abstract:

In Lebanon, public construction projects are awarded to the contractor submitting the lowest bid price based on a competitive bidding process. The contractor has to make a strategic decision in choosing the appropriate bid price that will offer a satisfactory profit with a greater probability to win. A simulation model for bid price decision making based on the lowest bid price evaluation is developed. The model, built using Crystal Ball decisionengineering software, considers two main factors affecting the bidding process: the number of qualified bidders and the size of the project. The validity of the model is tested on twelve separate projects. The study also shows how to use the model to conduct risk analysis and help any specific contractor to decide on his bid price with associated certainty level in a scientific method.

Keywords: Bid price, Competition, Decision making, Simulation.

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Authors: S. Aziz, B. Alexander, C. Gengnagel, S. Weinzierl

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This paper explores a generative design, simulation, and optimization workflow for the integration of acoustical diffuser and/or absorber geometry with embedded coupled Helmholtz-resonators for full scale 3D printed building components. Large-scale additive manufacturing in conjunction with algorithmic CAD design tools enables a vast amount of control when creating geometry. This is advantageous regarding the increasing demands of comfort standards for indoor spaces and the use of more resourceful and sustainable construction methods and materials. The presented methodology highlights these new technological advancements and offers a multimodal and integrative design solution with the potential for an immediate application in the AEC-Industry. In principle, the methodology can be applied to a wide range of structural elements that can be manufactured by additive manufacturing processes. The current paper focuses on a case study of an application for a biaxial load-bearing beam grillage made of reinforced concrete, which allows for a variety of applications through the combination of additive prefabricated semi-finished parts and in-situ concrete supplementation. The semi-prefabricated parts or formwork bodies form the basic framework of the supporting structure and at the same time have acoustic absorption and diffusion properties that are precisely acoustically programmed for the space underneath the structure. To this end, a hybrid validation strategy is being explored using a digital and cross-platform simulation environment, verified with physical prototyping. The iterative workflow starts with the generation of a parametric design model for the acoustical geometry using the algorithmic visual scripting editor Grasshopper3D inside the Building Information Modeling (BIM) software Revit. Various geometric attributes (i.e., bottleneck and cavity dimensions) of the resonator are parameterized and fed to a numerical optimization algorithm which can modify the geometry with the goal of increasing absorption at resonance and increasing the bandwidth of the effective absorption range. Using Rhino.Inside and LiveLink for Revit the generative model was imported directly into the Multiphysics simulation environment COMSOL. The geometry was further modified and prepared for simulation in a semi-automated process. The incident and scattered pressure fields were simulated from which the surface normal absorption coefficients were calculated. This reciprocal process was repeated to further optimize the geometric parameters. Subsequently the numerical models were compared to a set of 3D concrete printed physical twin models which were tested in a .25 m x .25 m impedance tube. The empirical results served to improve the starting parameter settings of the initial numerical model. The geometry resulting from the numerical optimization was finally returned to grasshopper for further implementation in an interdisciplinary study.

Keywords: Acoustical design, additive manufacturing, computational design, multimodal optimization.

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Authors: Vesna Bosilj Vuksic, Mirjana Pejic Bach

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Business process management (BPM) has become widely accepted within business community as a means for improving business performance. However, it is of the highest importance to incorporate BPM as part of the curriculum at the university level education in order to achieve the appropriate acceptance of the method. Goal of the paper is to determine the current state of education in business process management (BPM) at the Croatian universities and abroad. It investigates the applied forms of instruction and teaching methods and gives several proposals for BPM courses improvement. Since majority of undergraduate and postgraduate students have limited understanding of business processes and lack of any practical experience, there is a need for introducing new teaching approaches. Therefore, we offer some suggestions for further improvement, among which the introduction of simulation games environment in BPM education is strongly recommended.

Keywords: business process management, simulation games, education

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Authors: A.Roshandel, N.Hedayat, H.kiamanesh

Abstract:

Today, numerical simulation is a powerful tool to solve various hydraulic engineering problems. The aim of this research is numerical solutions of shallow water equations using finite volume method for Simulations of dam break over wet and dry bed. In order to solve Riemann problem, Roe-s approximate solver is used. To evaluate numerical model, simulation was done in 1D and 2D states. In 1D state, two dam break test over dry bed (with and without friction) were studied. The results showed that Structural failure around the dam and damage to the downstream constructions in bed without friction is more than friction bed. In 2D state, two tests for wet and dry beds were done. Generally in wet bed case, waves are propagated to canal sides but in dry bed it is not significant. Therefore, damage to the storage facilities and agricultural lands in wet bed case is more than in dry bed.

Keywords: dam break, dry bed, finite volume method, shallow water equations.

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Authors: Amer M. Momani, Abdulaziz A. Ahmed

Abstract:

The many feasible alternatives and conflicting objectives make equipment selection in materials handling a complicated task. This paper presents utilizing Monte Carlo (MC) simulation combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate and select the most appropriate Material Handling Equipment (MHE). The proposed hybrid model was built on the base of material handling equation to identify main and sub criteria critical to MHE selection. The criteria illustrate the properties of the material to be moved, characteristics of the move, and the means by which the materials will be moved. The use of MC simulation beside the AHP is very powerful where it allows the decision maker to represent his/her possible preference judgments as random variables. This will reduce the uncertainty of single point judgment at conventional AHP, and provide more confidence in the decision problem results. A small business pharmaceutical company is used as an example to illustrate the development and application of the proposed model.

Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Materialhandling equipment selection, Monte Carlo simulation, Multi-criteriadecision making

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Authors: Shashank Gautam

Abstract:

This paper proposes techniques like MT CMOS, POWER GATING, DUAL STACK, GALEOR and LECTOR to reduce the leakage power. A Full Adder has been designed using these techniques and power dissipation is calculated and is compared with general CMOS logic of Full Adder. Simulation results show the validity of the proposed techniques is effective to save power dissipation and to increase the speed of operation of the circuits to a large extent.

Keywords: Low Power, MT CMOS, Galeor, Lector, Power Gating, Dual Stack, Full Adder.

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Authors: Inaki Maulida Hakim, Alesandro Romero

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This research was conducted in an automotive company in Indonesia to overcome the problem of high logistics cost. The problem causes high of additional truck delivery. From the breakdown of the problem, chosen one route, which has the highest gap value, namely for RE-04. Research methodology will be started from calculating the ideal condition, making simulation, calculating the ideal logistic cost, and proposing an improvement. From the calculation of the ideal condition, box arrangement was done on the truck has efficiency with three trucks delivery per day. Route simulation making uses Tecnomatix Plant Simulation software as a visualization for the company about how the system is occurred on route RE-04 in ideal condition. The last step is proposing improvements on the area of route RE-04. The route arrangement is done by Saving Method and sequence of each supplier with the Nearest Neighbor. The results of the proposed improvements are three new route groups, where was expected to decrease logistics cost and increase the average of the truck efficiency per day.

Keywords: Logistic cost, milkrun, simulation, efficiency.

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Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

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Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: Automatic calibration framework, approximate Bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform.

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Authors: Alicia Y. C. Tang, Rukaini Hj. Abdullah, Sharifuddin M. Zain

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This paper discusses the development of a qualitative simulator (abbreviated QRiOM) for predicting the behaviour of organic chemical reactions. The simulation technique is based on the qualitative process theory (QPT) ontology. The modelling constructs of QPT embody notions of causality which can be used to explain the behaviour of a chemical system. The major theme of this work is that, in a qualitative simulation environment, students are able to articulate his/her knowledge through the inspection of explanations generated by software. The implementation languages are Java and Prolog. The software produces explanation in various forms that stresses on the causal theories in the chemical system which can be effectively used to support learning.

Keywords: Chemical reactions, explanation, qualitative processtheory, simulation

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Authors: Mehmet Savsar

Abstract:

Reliability and availability of power stations are extremely important in order to achieve a required level of power generation. In particular, in the hot desert climate of Kuwait, reliable power generation is extremely important because of cooling requirements at temperatures exceeding 50-centigrade degrees. In this paper, a particular power plant, named Sabiya Power Plant, which has 8 steam turbines and 13 gas turbine stations, has been studied in detail; extensive data are collected; and availability of station units are determined. Furthermore, a simulation model is developed and used to analyze the effects of different maintenance policies on availability of these stations. The results show that significant improvements can be achieved in power plant availabilities if appropriate maintenance policies are implemented.

Keywords: Power plants, steam turbines, gas turbines, maintenance, availability, simulation.

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Authors: Mohamed A. El-Kady, Badr M. Alshammari

Abstract:

In a recent major industry-supported research and development study, a novel framework was developed and applied for assessment of reliability and quality performance levels in reallife power systems with practical large-scale sizes. The new assessment methodology is based on three metaphors (dimensions) representing the relationship between available generation capacities and required demand levels. The paper shares the results of the successfully completed stud and describes the implementation of the new methodology on practical zones in the Saudi electricity system.

Keywords: Power systems; large-scale analysis, reliability; performance assessment, linear programming.

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