Assessing drought Vulnerability of Bulgarian Agriculture through Model Simulations

Authors: Z. Popova, L. S. Pereira, М. Ivanova, P. Alexandrova, K. Doneva, V. Alexandrov, M. Kercheva

Abstract:

This study assesses the vulnerability of Bulgarian agriculture to drought using the WINISAREG model and seasonal standard precipitation index SPI(2) for the period 1951-2004. This model was previously validated for maize on soils of different water holding capacity (TAW) in various locations. Simulations are performed for Plovdiv, Stara Zagora and Sofia. Results relative to Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW (180 mm m-1) net irrigation requirements (NIRs) range 0-40 mm in wet years and 350-380 mm in dry years. In soils of small TAW (116 mm m-1), NIRs reach 440 mm in the very dry year. NIRs in Sofia are about 80 mm smaller. Rainfed maize is associated with great yield variability (29%91%) were found for seasonal agricultural drought relating the SPI (2) for “July-Aug" with the simulated RYD of rainfed maize while in Stara Zagora and Sofia the relationships are less accurate (R2>71%). When rainfed maize is grown on soils of large TAW economical losses are produced when high peak season SPI (2) < -0.50 in Plovdiv/Stara Zagora and SPI (2) < -0.90 in Sofia. The corresponding NIR thresholds were identified.

Keywords: Drought vulnerability, ISAREG simulation model, South Bulgaria, SPI-index

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1060743

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1686

References:

[1] "Understanding and defining drought". National Drought Mitigation Center 2006
[cited August 7 2009]. Available from http://drought.unl.edu/whatis/concept.htm
[2] L. S. Pereira, I. Cordery, and I. Iacovides, Coping with water scarcity. Addressing the challenges. Springer, Dordrecht, 2009, p. 382.
[3] K. Dow, "News coverage of drought impacts and vulnerability in the US Carolinas, 1998-2007". Nat Hazards 54, 2010, pp. 497-518. DOI 10.1007/s11069-009-9482-0.
[4] P. Domonkos, S. Szalai, and J. Zoboki, "Analysis of drought severity using PDSI and SPI indeces", Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, vol. 106, no. 2, 2001, pp. 93-107.
[5] P. Hlavinka, M. Trnka, D. Semeradova, M. Dubrovsky, Z. Zalud, and M. Mozny, "Effect of drought on yield variability of key crops in Czech Republic", Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 149, 2009, pp. 431 - 442.
[6] N. Slavov, E. Koleva, and V. Alexandrov, "The climate of drought in Bulgaria", in Drought in Bulgaria: a contemporary analog for climate change, G. G. Knight, I. Raev, M. Staneva (eds). Aldershot, UK: Ashgate Publishing Limited, 2004, pp 39-52, (in Bulgarian).
[7] E. Koleva, and V. Alexandrov, "Drought in Bulgarian low regions during the 20th century", Ther. Appl. Climatol., vol. 92, 2008, pp. 113- 120, DOI 10.1007/s00704-007-0297-1
[8] E. E. Moreira, A. A. Paulo, L. S. Pereira, J. T. Mexia, "Analysis of SPI drought class transitions using loglinear models", J Hydrology, 331, 2006, pp. 349-359.
[9] L. S. Pereira, J. T. Mexia, and C. A. L. Pires, Eds. Gestao do Risco em Secas. Metodos, tecnologias e desafios. Ed. Colibri and CEER, Lisbon, 2010, p. 344.
[10] M. Vancloster, P. Viane, J. Diels, and K. Christiaens, WAVE model for simulating water and agrochemicals in the soil and vadose environment, Reference&user-s manual, Institute for Land and Water Management, KU leuven, Belgium, 1994.
[11] C. A. Jones, and J. R. Kiniry, CERES-Maize a simulation model of Maize Growth and Development. Texas A&M University Press, College Station, 1986.
[12] B. Gabrielle, S. Menasseri, and S. Houot, "Analysis and field-evaluation of the Ceres models water balance component", Soil Science Society America Journal, vol. 59, 1995, pp. 1403-1412.
[13] B. Gabrielle, and L. Kengni, "Analysis and field-evaluation of the CERES models- soil components: Nitrogen transfer and transformation", Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., vol. 60, 1996, pp. 142-149.
[14] J. L. Teixeira, and L. S. Pereira, "ISAREG, an irrigation scheduling simulation model", in Crop Water Models, Special issue of ICID Bulletin, vol. 41, no. 2, L. S. Pereira, A. Perrier, M. Ait Kadi, and Kabat (guest editors), 1992, pp. 29-48
[15] L. S. Pereira, P. R. Teodoro, P. N. Rodrigues, and J. L. Teixeira, "Irrigation scheduling simulation: the model ISAREG", in Tools for Drought Mitigation in Mediterranean Regions, G. Rossi, A. Cancelliere, L. S. Pereira, T. Oweis, M. Shatanawi, A. Zairi (Eds.). Kluwer, Dordrecht, 2003, pp. 161-180.
[16] V. Aleksandrov, G. Georgiev, and N. Slavov, "CERES-maize model as an approach for simulation of maize growth, development and yield", Bulgarian Journal of Meteorology and Hydrology, vol. 4, no. 3, 1993, pp. 164-169.
[17] Z. Popova, M. Vancloster, J. Diels and J. Feyen, "Assessment of drought impact on soil water balance and agricultural potential of Bulgaria using simulation model WAVE", in 1995 Proceedings of the EWRA 95 Symposium, Nicosia (Cyprus), pp.87-92.
[18] Z. Popova, M. Kercheva, B. Leviel, and B. Gabrielle, "Consequence of heavy precipitation and droughts in Bulgarian agroecosystems and ways of mitigating their impacts", in 2001 Proceedings of the 19th European Regional Conference of ICID, Burno-Prague paper Ôäû132 (CD-ROM).
[19] Z. Popova, and M. Kercheva, "Optimization of strategies to mitigate biological droughts consequences under wheat and maize in Bulgaria", Journal of Balkan ecology, vol. 5, no. 1, 2002, pp.48-58.
[20] Z. Popova, and M. Kercheva, "Ceres model application for increasing preparedness to climate variability in agricultural planning-calibration and validation test", Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Elsevier Science Publisher PartsA/B/C vol. 30, no. 1-3, 2005, pp. 125-133.
[21] Z. Popova, and L. S. Pereira, "Irrigation scheduling for furrow irrigated maize under climate uncertainties in the Thrace plain, Bulgaria", Journal of Biosystem engineering, vol. 99, no. 4, 2008, pp. 587-597. ISSN: 15375110 DOI: 10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2007.12.005 SW-Soil and Water
[22] M. Kercheva, Information basis for modeling components of soil water balance and assessment of agroecological risks. PhD Thesis. "N.Poushkarov" Institute of soil science, Sofia, 2004, p.143 (in Bulgarian).
[23] E. Doneva, Characteristics of soil hydraulic properties and their influence on water balance of cropped soil. Ph.D.-thesis University of Civil Engineering, Sofia, (in Bulgarian), 1976.
[24] I. Varlev, N. Kolev, and I. Kirkova, "Yield-water relationships and their changes during individual climatic years", in Proceedings of 17th Europ. Reg. Conf. of ICID, Varna, vol. 1, 1994, pp. 351 - 360.
[25] S. Eneva, Irrigation and irrigation effect on field crops. Problems of crop production science and practice in Bulgaria. Agricultural University of Plovdiv, 1997, p. 287.
[26] Z. Popova, S. Eneva, and L. S. Pereira, "Model validation, crop coefficients and yield response factors for irrigation scheduling based on long-term experiments", Biosystems Engineering, vol. 95, no. 1, 2006, pp. 139-149.
[27] Z. Popova and L. S. Pereira, "Model validation for maize irrigation scheduling in Plovdiv region", in 2010 BALWOIS Conference 2010 "Water observation and information system for decision making", CDROM paper 648, Ohrid.
[28] I. Varlev and Z. Popova, Water-Evapotranspiration-Yield. Irrig. and Drain. Inst., Sofia, 1999, p. 143, (in Bulgarian).
[29] D. Stoichev, Ecological aspects of anthropogenic loading of soils, Synthesis of dissertation thesis for the scientific degree "Doctor of agricultural sciences", "N.Poushkarov" Institute of soil science, Sofia, 1997, p. 52, (in Bulgarian).
[30] P. Alexandrova, Microclimate of maize under irrigation and rainfed conditions. Synthesis of dissertation PhD thesis. "N.Poushkarov" Institute of soil science, 1990, p. 32, (in Bulgarian).
[31] R. Rafailov (1995). (1998). Annual reports of ISS N.Poushkarov, Sofia, unpublished.
[32] J. Jivkov, "Role of the crop and irrigation on intensive use of irrigated area", Papers of Institute of Hydrotechniques and Melioration, vol. XXIV, 1994, pp. 351-357.
[33] B. Mladenova, and I. Varlev, "Sensitivity of maize under water deficit during the different fazes of vegetation in Sofia field", in Proc. Intern. Conf. 50-Years Institute of Soil Science "Nikola Poushkarov", Sofia, 1997.
[34] M. Moteva, Parameters of irrigation scheduling of maize for grain under irrigation through a furrow on chromic luvisol soil. PhD Thesis "N.Poushkarov" Institute of soil science, Sofia, 2006, p.118 (in Bulgarian).
[35] R. G. Allen, L. S. Pereira, D. Raes, and M. Smith, Crop Evapotranspiration - Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements. Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, FAO, Rome, 1998.
[36] Z. Popova, and L. S. Pereira, "Modeling for maize irrigation scheduling using long term experimental data from Plovdiv region, Bulgaria", Agricultural Water Management, vol. 98, no. 4, 2011, pp. 675-683. doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2010.11.009
[37] Z. Popova, M. Ivanova, P. Alexandrova, V. Alexandrov, K. Doneva, and L. S. Pereira, "Impact of drought on maize irrigation and productivity in Plovdiv region", in 2011 Transactions of National conference with international participation "100 years soil science in Bulgaria", Sofia, Vol.1, pp.394-399
[38] P. Stoyanov, Agroecological potential of maize cultivated on typical for its production soils in the conditions in Bulgaria. Habilitation paper for the scientific degree "Professor", "N.Poushkarov" Institute of soil science, Sofia, 2008, (in Bulgarian).
[39] J. Doorenbos, and W. O. Pruitt, Crop Water Requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 24. FAO, Rome, Italy, 1977, p. 144.
[40] J. Doorenbos, and A. H. Kassam, Yield Response to Water. Irrigation and Drainage Paper 33, FAO, Rome, Italy, 1979, p. 193.
[41] M. Ivanova, and Z. Popova, "Model validation and crop coefficients for maize irrigation scheduling based on field experiments in Sofia region", in 2011 Transactions of National conference with international participation "100 years soil science in Bulgaria", Sofia, vol. 2, pp.542-548, (in Bulgarian).