Search results for: Generalized differential quadrature method

Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: k-factor, GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, electricity price, forecasting.

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Authors: Matthias Dehmer, Frank Emmert Streib, Alexander Mehler, Jürgen Kilian

Abstract:

Most known methods for measuring the structural similarity of document structures are based on, e.g., tag measures, path metrics and tree measures in terms of their DOM-Trees. Other methods measures the similarity in the framework of the well known vector space model. In contrast to these we present a new approach to measuring the structural similarity of web-based documents represented by so called generalized trees which are more general than DOM-Trees which represent only directed rooted trees.We will design a new similarity measure for graphs representing web-based hypertext structures. Our similarity measure is mainly based on a novel representation of a graph as strings of linear integers, whose components represent structural properties of the graph. The similarity of two graphs is then defined as the optimal alignment of the underlying property strings. In this paper we apply the well known technique of sequence alignments to solve a novel and challenging problem: Measuring the structural similarity of generalized trees. More precisely, we first transform our graphs considered as high dimensional objects in linear structures. Then we derive similarity values from the alignments of the property strings in order to measure the structural similarity of generalized trees. Hence, we transform a graph similarity problem to a string similarity problem. We demonstrate that our similarity measure captures important structural information by applying it to two different test sets consisting of graphs representing web-based documents.

Keywords: Graph similarity, hierarchical and directed graphs, hypertext, generalized trees, web structure mining.

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Authors: Mohamed M. Mousa, Aidarkhan Kaltayev

Abstract:

In this paper, He-s homotopy perturbation method (HPM) is applied to spatial one and three spatial dimensional inhomogeneous wave equation Cauchy problems for obtaining exact solutions. HPM is used for analytic handling of these equations. The results reveal that the HPM is a very effective, convenient and quite accurate to such types of partial differential equations (PDEs).

Keywords: Homotopy perturbation method, Exact solution, Cauchy problem, inhomogeneous wave equation

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Authors: Saeed Asiri

Abstract:

This research is to design and implement a new kind of agitators called differential agitator. The Differential Agitator is an electro- mechanic set consists of two shafts. The first shaft is the bearing axis while the second shaft is the axis of the quartet upper bearing impellers group and the triple lower group which are called as agitating group. The agitating group is located inside a cylindrical container equipped especially to contain square directors for the liquid entrance and square directors called fixing group for the liquid exit. The fixing group is installed containing the agitating group inside any tank whether from upper or lower position. The agitating process occurs through the agitating group bearing causing a lower pressure over the upper group leading to withdrawing the liquid from the square directors of the liquid entering and consequently the liquid moves to the denser place under the quartet upper group. Then, the liquid moves to the so high pressure area under the agitating group causing the liquid to exit from the square directors in the bottom of the container. For improving efficiency, parametric study and shape optimization has been carried out. A numerical analysis, manufacturing and laboratory experiments were conducted to design and implement the differential agitator. Knowing the material prosperities and the loading conditions, the FEM using ANSYS11 was used to get the optimum design of the geometrical parameters of the differential agitator elements while the experimental test was performed to validate the advantages of the differential agitators to give a high agitation performance of lime in the water as an example. In addition, the experimental work has been done to express the internal container shape in the agitation efficiency. The study ended up with conclusions to maximize agitator performance and optimize the geometrical parameters to be used for manufacturing the differential agitator

Keywords: Differential Agitators, Parametric Optimization, Shape Optimization, Agitation, FEM, ANSYS11.

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Authors: Vai Kuong Sin

Abstract:

Non-isothermal stagnation-point flow with consideration of thermal radiation is studied numerically. A set of partial differential equations that governing the fluid flow and energy is converted into a set of ordinary differential equations which is solved by Runge-Kutta method with shooting algorithm. Dimensionless wall temperature gradient and temperature boundary layer thickness for different combinaton of values of Prandtl number Pr and radiation parameter NR are presented graphically. Analyses of results show that the presence of thermal radiation in the stagnation-point flow is to increase the temperature boundary layer thickness and decrease the dimensionless wall temperature gradient.

Keywords: Stagnation-point flow, Similarity solution, Thermal radiation.

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Authors: R .Lassoued, M. Guenfoud

Abstract:

An accurate procedure to determine free vibrations of beams and plates is presented. The natural frequencies are exact solutions of governing vibration equations witch load to a nonlinear homogeny system. The bilinear and linear structures considered simulate a bridge. The dynamic behavior of this one is analyzed by using the theory of the orthotropic plate simply supported on two sides and free on the two others. The plate can be excited by a convoy of constant or harmonic loads. The determination of the dynamic response of the structures considered requires knowledge of the free frequencies and the shape modes of vibrations. Our work is in this context. Indeed, we are interested to develop a self-consistent calculation of the Eigen frequencies. The formulation is based on the determination of the solution of the differential equations of vibrations. The boundary conditions corresponding to the shape modes permit to lead to a homogeneous system. Determination of the noncommonplace solutions of this system led to a nonlinear problem in Eigen frequencies. We thus, develop a computer code for the determination of the eigenvalues. It is based on a method of bisection with interpolation whose precision reaches 10 -12. Moreover, to determine the corresponding modes, the calculation algorithm that we develop uses the method of Gauss with a partial optimization of the "pivots" combined with an inverse power procedure. The Eigen frequencies of a plate simply supported along two opposite sides while considering the two other free sides are thus analyzed. The results could be generalized with the case of a beam by regarding it as a plate with low width. We give, in this paper, some examples of treated cases. The comparison with results presented in the literature is completely satisfactory.

Keywords: Free frequencies, beams, rectangular plates.

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Authors: R. S. Fyath, Mustafa A. B. Al-Qadi

Abstract:

The inphase/quadrature (I/Q) amplitude and phase imbalance effects are studied in coherent optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (CO-OFDM) systems. An analytical model for the I/Q imbalance is developed and supported by simulation results. The results indicate that the I/Q imbalance degrades the BER performance considerably.

Keywords: Coherent detection, I/Q imbalance, OFDM, optical communications

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Authors: Süha Yılmaz, Melih Turgut

Abstract:

These In this work, a regular unit speed curve in six dimensional Euclidean space, whose Frenet curvatures are constant, is considered. Thereafter, a method to calculate Frenet apparatus of this curve is presented.

Keywords: Classical Differential Geometry, Euclidean 6-space, Frenet Apparatus of the curves.

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Authors: Chao Yuan, Bao Guang Tian

Abstract:

A relative efficiency is defined as Ridge Estimate in the general linear model. The relative efficiency is based on the Mean square error. In this paper, we put forward a parameter of Ridge Estimate and discussions are made on the relative efficiency between the ridge estimation and the General Ridge Estimate. Eventually, this paper proves that the estimation is better than the general ridge estimate, which is based on the MSE.

Keywords: Ridge estimate, generalized ridge estimate, MSE, relative efficiency.

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Filip C. Filippou, Giorgio Serino

Abstract:

The solution of the nonlinear dynamic equilibrium equations of base-isolated structures adopting a conventional monolithic solution approach, i.e. an implicit single-step time integration method employed with an iteration procedure, and the use of existing nonlinear analytical models, such as differential equation models, to simulate the dynamic behavior of seismic isolators can require a significant computational effort. In order to reduce numerical computations, a partitioned solution method and a one dimensional nonlinear analytical model are presented in this paper. A partitioned solution approach can be easily applied to base-isolated structures in which the base isolation system is much more flexible than the superstructure. Thus, in this work, the explicit conditionally stable central difference method is used to evaluate the base isolation system nonlinear response and the implicit unconditionally stable Newmark’s constant average acceleration method is adopted to predict the superstructure linear response with the benefit in avoiding iterations in each time step of a nonlinear dynamic analysis. The proposed mathematical model is able to simulate the dynamic behavior of seismic isolators without requiring the solution of a nonlinear differential equation, as in the case of widely used differential equation model. The proposed mixed explicit-implicit time integration method and nonlinear exponential model are adopted to analyze a three dimensional seismically isolated structure with a lead rubber bearing system subjected to earthquake excitation. The numerical results show the good accuracy and the significant computational efficiency of the proposed solution approach and analytical model compared to the conventional solution method and mathematical model adopted in this work. Furthermore, the low stiffness value of the base isolation system with lead rubber bearings allows to have a critical time step considerably larger than the imposed ground acceleration time step, thus avoiding stability problems in the proposed mixed method.

Keywords: Base-isolated structures, earthquake engineering, mixed time integration, nonlinear exponential model.

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Authors: Hirofumi Miyajima, Kazuya Kishida, Noritaka Shigei, Hiromi Miyajima

Abstract:

Most of self-tuning fuzzy systems, which are automatically constructed from learning data, are based on the steepest descent method (SDM). However, this approach often requires a large convergence time and gets stuck into a shallow local minimum. One of its solutions is to use fuzzy rule modules with a small number of inputs such as DIRMs (Double-Input Rule Modules) and SIRMs (Single-Input Rule Modules). In this paper, we consider a (generalized) DIRMs model composed of double and single-input rule modules. Further, in order to reduce the redundant modules for the (generalized) DIRMs model, pruning and generative learning algorithms for the model are suggested. In order to show the effectiveness of them, numerical simulations for function approximation, Box-Jenkins and obstacle avoidance problems are performed.

Keywords: Box-Jenkins’s problem, Double-input rule module, Fuzzy inference model, Obstacle avoidance, Single-input rule module.

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Authors: Khairil Iskandar Othman, Zarina Bibi Ibrahim, Mohamed Suleiman

Abstract:

A parallel block method based on Backward Differentiation Formulas (BDF) is developed for the parallel solution of stiff Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs). Most common methods for solving stiff systems of ODEs are based on implicit formulae and solved using Newton iteration which requires repeated solution of systems of linear equations with coefficient matrix, I - hβJ . Here, J is the Jacobian matrix of the problem. In this paper, the matrix operations is paralleled in order to reduce the cost of the iterations. Numerical results are given to compare the speedup and efficiency of parallel algorithm and that of sequential algorithm.

Keywords: Backward Differentiation Formula, block, ordinarydifferential equations.

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Authors: Jean-Christophe Sibel, Sylvain Reynal, David Declercq

Abstract:

In the context of channel coding, the Generalized Belief Propagation (GBP) is an iterative algorithm used to recover the transmission bits sent through a noisy channel. To ensure a reliable transmission, we apply a map on the bits, that is called a code. This code induces artificial correlations between the bits to send, and it can be modeled by a graph whose nodes are the bits and the edges are the correlations. This graph, called Tanner graph, is used for most of the decoding algorithms like Belief Propagation or Gallager-B. The GBP is based on a non unic transformation of the Tanner graph into a so called region-graph. A clear advantage of the GBP over the other algorithms is the freedom in the construction of this graph. In this article, we explain a particular construction for specific graph topologies that involves relevant performance of the GBP. Moreover, we investigate the behavior of the GBP considered as a dynamic system in order to understand the way it evolves in terms of the time and in terms of the noise power of the channel. To this end we make use of classical measures and we introduce a new measure called the hyperspheres method that enables to know the size of the attractors.

Keywords: iterative decoder, LDPC, region-graph, chaos.

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Authors: Shazalina Mat Zin, Ahmad Abd. Majid, Ahmad Izani Md. Ismail, Muhammad Abbas

Abstract:

The generalized wave equation models various problems in sciences and engineering. In this paper, a new three-time level implicit approach based on cubic trigonometric B-spline for the approximate solution of wave equation is developed. The usual finite difference approach is used to discretize the time derivative while cubic trigonometric B-spline is applied as an interpolating function in the space dimension. Von Neumann stability analysis is used to analyze the proposed method. Two problems are discussed to exhibit the feasibility and capability of the method. The absolute errors and maximum error are computed to assess the performance of the proposed method. The results were found to be in good agreement with known solutions and with existing schemes in literature.

Keywords: Collocation method, Cubic trigonometric B-spline, Finite difference, Wave equation.

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Authors: Roman Kalvin, Anam Nadeem, Shahab Khushnood

Abstract:

Differential is an integral part of four wheeled vehicle, and its main function is to transmit power from drive shaft to wheels. Differential assembly allows both rear wheels to turn at different speed along curved paths. It consists of four gears which are assembled together namely pinion, ring, spider and bevel gears. This research focused on the spider gear and its static structural analysis using ANSYS. The main aim was to evaluate the distribution of stresses on the teeth of the spider gear. This study also analyzed total deformation that may occur during its working along with bevel gear that is meshed with spider gear. Structural steel was chosen for spider gear in this research. Modeling and assembling were done on SolidWorks for both spider and bevel gear. They were assembled exactly same as in a differential assembly. This assembly was then imported to ANSYS. After observing results that maximum amount of stress and deformation was produced in the spider gear, it was concluded that structural steel material for spider gear possesses greater amount of strength to bear maximum stress.

Keywords: Differential, spider gear, ANSYS, structural steel.

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Authors: Kholod M. Abualnaja

Abstract:

This paper consider the solution of the matrix differential models using quadratic, cubic, quartic, and quintic splines. Also using the Taylor’s and Picard’s matrix methods, one illustrative example is included.

Keywords: Matrix Splines, Cubic Splines, Quartic Splines.

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Authors: A. A. Penin

Abstract:

Requirements that should be met when determining the regimes of circuits with variable elements are formulated. The interpretation of the variations in the regimes, based on projective geometry, enables adequate expressions for determining and comparing the regimes to be derived. It is proposed to use as the parameters of a generalized equivalent generator of an active two-pole with changeable resistor such load current and voltage which provide the current through this resistor equal to zero.

Keywords: Equivalent generator, geometric circuits theory, circuits regimes, load characteristics, variable elements.

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Authors: Barenten Suciu

Abstract:

An electrical generator able to harness energy from the water waves and designed as a double-cone geared motor-generator (DCGMG), is proposed and theoretically investigated. Similar to a differential gear mechanism, used in the transmission system of the auto vehicle wheels, an angular speed differential is created between the cones rolling on two concentric circular rails. Water wave acting on the floating DCGMG produces and a gear-box amplifies the speed differential to gain sufficient torque for power generation. A model that allows computation of the speed differential, torque, and power of the DCGMG is suggested. Influence of various parameters, regarding the construction of the DCGMG, as well as the contact between the double-cone and rails, on the electro-mechanical output, is emphasized. Results obtained indicate that the generated electrical power can be increased by augmenting the mass of the double-cone, the span of the rails, the apex angle of the cones, the friction between cones and rails, the amplification factor of the gear-box, and the efficiency of the motor-generator. Such findings are useful to formulate a design methodology for the proposed wave-powered generator.

Keywords: Wave-powered electrical generator, double-cone, circular concentric rails, amplification of angular speed differential.

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Authors: Lianglin Xiong, Yun Zhao, Tao Jiang

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the stability of n-dimensional linear fractional neutral differential equation with time delays. By using the Laplace transform, we introduce a characteristic equation for the above system with multiple time delays. We discover that if all roots of the characteristic equation have negative parts, then the equilibrium of the above linear system with fractional order is Lyapunov globally asymptotical stable if the equilibrium exist that is almost the same as that of classical differential equations. An example is provided to show the effectiveness of the approach presented in this paper.

Keywords: Fractional neutral differential equation, Laplace transform, characteristic equation.

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Authors: Anjali Verma, Ram Jiwari, Jitender Kumar

Abstract:

This paper presents a new function expansion method for finding traveling wave solution of a non-linear equation and calls it the (G'/G)-expansion method. The shallow water wave equation is reduced to a non linear ordinary differential equation by using a simple transformation. As a result the traveling wave solutions of shallow water wave equation are expressed in three forms: hyperbolic solutions, trigonometric solutions and rational solutions.

Keywords: Shallow water wave equation, Exact solutions, (G'/G) expansion method.

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Authors: Husna Hasan, Norfatin Salam, Mohd Bakri Adam

Abstract:

Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modelled by fitting the monthly maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Two models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that half of the stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

Keywords: Extreme temperature, extreme value, return level.

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Authors: Said M. Easa, Shinya Kikuchi

Abstract:

When the profile information of an existing road is missing or not up-to-date and the parameters of the vertical alignment are needed for engineering analysis, the engineer has to recreate the geometric design features of the road alignment using collected profile data. The profile data may be collected using traditional surveying methods, global positioning systems, or digital imagery. This paper develops a method that estimates the parameters of the geometric features that best characterize the existing vertical alignments in terms of tangents and the expressions of the curve, that may be symmetrical, asymmetrical, reverse, and complex vertical curves. The method is implemented using an Excel-based optimization method that minimizes the differences between the observed profile and the profiles estimated from the equations of the vertical curve. The method uses a 'wireframe' representation of the profile that makes the proposed method applicable to all types of vertical curves. A secondary contribution of this paper is to introduce the properties of the equal-arc asymmetrical curve that has been recently developed in the highway geometric design field.

Keywords: Optimization, parameters, data, reverse, spreadsheet, vertical curves

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Authors: Anupma Bansal, R. K. Gupta

Abstract:

In this paper, we study a new modified Novikov equation for its classical and nonclassical symmetries and use the symmetries to reduce it to a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE). With the aid of solutions of the nonlinear ODE by using the modified (G/G)-expansion method proposed recently, multiple exact traveling wave solutions are obtained and the traveling wave solutions are expressed by the hyperbolic functions, trigonometric functions and rational functions.

Keywords: New Modified Novikov Equation, Lie Classical Method, Nonclassical Method, Modified (G'/G)-Expansion Method, Traveling Wave Solutions.

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Authors: T. Cornelius

Abstract:

Masonry cavity walls are loaded by wind pressure and vertical load from upper floors. These loads results in bending moments and compression forces in the ties connecting the outer and the inner wall in a cavity wall. Large cavity walls are furthermore loaded by differential movements from the temperature gradient between the outer and the inner wall, which results in critical increase of the bending moments in the ties. Since the ties are loaded by combined compression and moment forces, the loadbearing capacity is derived from instability equilibrium equations. Most of them are iterative, since exact instability solutions are complex to derive, not to mention the extra complexity introducing dimensional instability from the temperature gradients. Using an inverse variable substitution and comparing an exact theory with an analytical instability solution a method to design tie-connectors in cavity walls was developed. The method takes into account constraint conditions limiting the free length of the wall tie, and the instability in case of pure compression which gives an optimal load bearing capacity. The model is illustrated with examples from praxis.

Keywords: Masonry, tie connectors, cavity wall, instability, differential movements, combined bending and compression.

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Authors: H. D. Ibrahim, H. C. Chinwenyi, A. H. Usman

Abstract:

Valuing derivatives (options, futures, swaps, forwards, etc.) is one uneasy task in financial mathematics. The two ways this problem can be effectively resolved in finance is by the use of two methods (Martingales and Partial Differential Equations (PDEs)) to obtain their respective options price valuation formulas. This research paper examined two different stochastic financial models which are Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model and Black-Karasinski term structure model. Assuming their respective option price valuation formulas, we proved the analogous of the Martingales and PDEs options price valuation formulas for the two different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models. This was accomplished by using the applications of Girsanov theorem for defining an Equivalent Martingale Measure (EMM) and the Feynman-Kac theorem. The results obtained show the systematic proof for analogous of the two (Martingales and PDEs) options price valuation formulas beginning with the Martingales option price formula and arriving back at the Black-Scholes parabolic PDEs and vice versa.

Keywords: Option price valuation, Martingales, Partial Differential Equations, PDEs, Equivalent Martingale Measure, Girsanov Theorem, Feyman-Kac Theorem, European Put Option.

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Authors: Pan Cheng, Jin Huang, Guang Zeng

Abstract:

Elastic boundary eigensolution problems are converted into boundary integral equations by potential theory. The kernels of the boundary integral equations have both the logarithmic and Hilbert singularity simultaneously. We present the mechanical quadrature methods for solving eigensolutions of the boundary integral equations by dealing with two kinds of singularities at the same time. The methods possess high accuracy O(h3) and low computing complexity. The convergence and stability are proved based on Anselone-s collective compact theory. Bases on the asymptotic error expansion with odd powers, we can greatly improve the accuracy of the approximation, and also derive a posteriori error estimate which can be used for constructing self-adaptive algorithms. The efficiency of the algorithms are illustrated by numerical examples.

Keywords: boundary integral equation, extrapolation algorithm, aposteriori error estimate, elasticity.

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Authors: F. Bayatbabolghani, K. Parand

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose Hermite collocation method for solving Thomas-Fermi equation that is nonlinear ordinary differential equation on semi-infinite interval. This method reduces the solution of this problem to the solution of a system of algebraic equations. We also present the comparison of this work with solution of other methods that shows the present solution is more accurate and faster convergence in this problem.

Keywords: Collocation method, Hermite function, Semi-infinite, Thomas-Fermi equation.

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Authors: R. Bhargava, Sonam Singh

Abstract:

In the present study, a numerical analysis is carried out to investigate unsteady MHD (magneto-hydrodynamic) flow and heat transfer of a non-Newtonian second grade viscoelastic fluid over an oscillatory stretching sheet. The flow is induced due to an infinite elastic sheet which is stretched oscillatory (back and forth) in its own plane. Effect of viscous dissipation and joule heating are taken into account. The non-linear differential equations governing the problem are transformed into system of non-dimensional differential equations using similarity transformations. A newly developed meshfree numerical technique Element free Galerkin method (EFGM) is employed to solve the coupled non linear differential equations. The results illustrating the effect of various parameters like viscoelastic parameter, Hartman number, relative frequency amplitude of the oscillatory sheet to the stretching rate and Eckert number on velocity and temperature field are reported in terms of graphs and tables. The present model finds its application in polymer extrusion, drawing of plastic films and wires, glass, fiber and paper production etc.

Keywords: EFGM, MHD, Oscillatory stretching sheet, Unsteady, Viscoelastic

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Authors: Atif Elahi, Ijaz Mansoor Qureshi, Mehreen Atif, Noor Gul

Abstract:

Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) is one of the best candidates for dynamic spectrum access due to its flexibility of spectrum shaping. However, the high sidelobes of the OFDM signal that result in high out-of-band radiation, introduce significant interference to the users operating in its vicinity. This problem becomes more critical in cognitive radio (CR) system that enables the secondary users (SUs) users to access the spectrum holes not used by the primary users (PUs) at that time. In this paper, we present a generalized OFDM framework that has a capability of describing any sidelobe suppression techniques, despite of whether one or a number of techniques are used. Based on that framework, we propose cancellation carrier (CC) technique in conjunction with the generalized sidelobe canceller (GSC) to reduce the out-of-band radiation in the region where the licensed users are operating. Simulation results show that the proposed technique can reduce the out-of-band radiation better when compared with the existing techniques found in the literature.

Keywords: Cognitive radio, cancellation carriers, generalized sidelobe canceller, out-of-band radiation, orthogonal frequency division multiplexing.

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.

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