Search results for: Behavior model simulation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 10840

Search results for: Behavior model simulation

7300 Performance Analysis of Deterministic Stable Election Protocol Using Fuzzy Logic in Wireless Sensor Network

Authors: Sumanpreet Kaur, Harjit Pal Singh, Vikas Khullar

Abstract:

In Wireless Sensor Network (WSN), the sensor containing motes (nodes) incorporate batteries that can lament at some extent. To upgrade the energy utilization, clustering is one of the prototypical approaches for split sensor motes into a number of clusters where one mote (also called as node) proceeds as a Cluster Head (CH). CH selection is one of the optimization techniques for enlarging stability and network lifespan. Deterministic Stable Election Protocol (DSEP) is an effectual clustering protocol that makes use of three kinds of nodes with dissimilar residual energy for CH election. Fuzzy Logic technology is used to expand energy level of DSEP protocol by using fuzzy inference system. This paper presents protocol DSEP using Fuzzy Logic (DSEP-FL) CH by taking into account four linguistic variables such as energy, concentration, centrality and distance to base station. Simulation results show that our proposed method gives more effective results in term of a lifespan of network and stability as compared to the performance of other clustering protocols.

Keywords: Deterministic stable election protocol, energy model, fuzzy logic, wireless sensor network.

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7299 The Strategies for Teaching Digital Art in the Classroom as a Way of Enhancing Pupils’ Artistic Creativity

Authors: Aber Salem Aboalgasm, Rupert Ward

Abstract:

Teaching art by digital means is a big challenge for the majority of teachers of art and design in primary schools, yet it allows relationships between art, technology and creativity to be clearly identified. The aim of this article is to present a modern way of teaching art, using digital tools in the art classroom to improve creative ability in pupils aged between nine and eleven years. It also presents a conceptual model for creativity based on digital art. The model could be useful for pupils interested in learning to draw by using an e-drawing package, and for teachers who are interested in teaching modern digital art in order to improve children’s creativity. By illustrating the strategy of teaching art through technology, this model may also help education providers to make suitable choices about which technological approaches are most effective in enhancing students’ creative ability, and which digital art tools can benefit children by developing their technical skills. It is also expected that use of this model will help to develop skills of social interaction, which may in turn improve intellectual ability.

Keywords: Digital tools, motivation, creative activity.

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7298 Kinetic and Optimization Studies on Ethanol Production from Corn Flour

Authors: K. Manikandan, T. Viruthagiri

Abstract:

Studies on Simultaneous Saccharification and Fermentation (SSF) of corn flour, a major agricultural product as the substrate using starch digesting glucoamylase enzyme derived from Aspergillus niger and non starch digesting and sugar fermenting Saccharomyces cerevisiae in a batch fermentation. Experiments based on Central Composite Design (CCD) were conducted to study the effect of substrate concentration, pH, temperature, enzyme concentration on Ethanol Concentration and the above parameters were optimized using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). The optimum values of substrate concentration, pH, temperature and enzyme concentration were found to be 160 g/l, 5.5, 30°C and 50 IU respectively. The effect of inoculums age on ethanol concentration was also investigated. The corn flour solution equivalent to 16% initial starch concentration gave the highest ethanol concentration of 63.04 g/l after 48 h of fermentation at optimum conditions of pH and temperature. Monod model and Logistic model were used for growth kinetics and Leudeking – Piret model was used for product formation kinetics.

Keywords: Simultaneous Saccharification and Fermentation(SSF), Corn Starch, Ethanol, Logisitic Model.

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7297 The Hybrid Knowledge Model for Product Development Management

Authors: Heejung Lee, Hyo-Won Suh

Abstract:

Hybrid knowledge model is suggested as an underlying framework for product development management. It can support such hybrid features as ontologies and rules. Effective collaboration in product development environment depends on sharing and reasoning product information as well as engineering knowledge. Many studies have considered product information and engineering knowledge. However, most previous research has focused either on building the ontology of product information or rule-based systems of engineering knowledge. This paper shows that F-logic based knowledge model can support such desirable features in a hybrid way.

Keywords: Ontology, rule, F-logic, product development.

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7296 Replicating Brain’s Resting State Functional Connectivity Network Using a Multi-Factor Hub-Based Model

Authors: B. L. Ho, L. Shi, D. F. Wang, V. C. T. Mok

Abstract:

The brain’s functional connectivity while temporally non-stationary does express consistency at a macro spatial level. The study of stable resting state connectivity patterns hence provides opportunities for identification of diseases if such stability is severely perturbed. A mathematical model replicating the brain’s spatial connections will be useful for understanding brain’s representative geometry and complements the empirical model where it falls short. Empirical computations tend to involve large matrices and become infeasible with fine parcellation. However, the proposed analytical model has no such computational problems. To improve replicability, 92 subject data are obtained from two open sources. The proposed methodology, inspired by financial theory, uses multivariate regression to find relationships of every cortical region of interest (ROI) with some pre-identified hubs. These hubs acted as representatives for the entire cortical surface. A variance-covariance framework of all ROIs is then built based on these relationships to link up all the ROIs. The result is a high level of match between model and empirical correlations in the range of 0.59 to 0.66 after adjusting for sample size; an increase of almost forty percent. More significantly, the model framework provides an intuitive way to delineate between systemic drivers and idiosyncratic noise while reducing dimensions by more than 30 folds, hence, providing a way to conduct attribution analysis. Due to its analytical nature and simple structure, the model is useful as a standalone toolkit for network dependency analysis or as a module for other mathematical models.

Keywords: Functional magnetic resonance imaging, multivariate regression, network hubs, resting state functional connectivity.

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7295 Lineup Optimization Model of Basketball Players Based on the Prediction of Recursive Neural Networks

Authors: Wang Yichen, Haruka Yamashita

Abstract:

In recent years, in the field of sports, decision making such as member in the game and strategy of the game based on then analysis of the accumulated sports data are widely attempted. In fact, in the NBA basketball league where the world's highest level players gather, to win the games, teams analyze the data using various statistical techniques. However, it is difficult to analyze the game data for each play such as the ball tracking or motion of the players in the game, because the situation of the game changes rapidly, and the structure of the data should be complicated. Therefore, it is considered that the analysis method for real time game play data is proposed. In this research, we propose an analytical model for "determining the optimal lineup composition" using the real time play data, which is considered to be difficult for all coaches. In this study, because replacing the entire lineup is too complicated, and the actual question for the replacement of players is "whether or not the lineup should be changed", and “whether or not Small Ball lineup is adopted”. Therefore, we propose an analytical model for the optimal player selection problem based on Small Ball lineups. In basketball, we can accumulate scoring data for each play, which indicates a player's contribution to the game, and the scoring data can be considered as a time series data. In order to compare the importance of players in different situations and lineups, we combine RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) model, which can analyze time series data, and NN (Neural Network) model, which can analyze the situation on the field, to build the prediction model of score. This model is capable to identify the current optimal lineup for different situations. In this research, we collected all the data of accumulated data of NBA from 2019-2020. Then we apply the method to the actual basketball play data to verify the reliability of the proposed model.

Keywords: Recurrent Neural Network, players lineup, basketball data, decision making model.

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7294 Sinusoidal Roughness Elements in a Square Cavity

Authors: M. Yousaf, S. Usman

Abstract:

Numerical studies were conducted using Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) to study the natural convection in a square cavity in the presence of roughness. An algorithm based on a single relaxation time Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook (BGK) model of Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) was developed. Roughness was introduced on both the hot and cold walls in the form of sinusoidal roughness elements. The study was conducted for a Newtonian fluid of Prandtl number (Pr) 1.0. The range of Ra number was explored from 10^3 to 10^6 in a laminar region. Thermal and hydrodynamic behavior of fluid was analyzed using a differentially heated square cavity with roughness elements present on both the hot and cold wall. Neumann boundary conditions were introduced on horizontal walls with vertical walls as isothermal. The roughness elements were at the same boundary condition as corresponding walls. Computational algorithm was validated against previous benchmark studies performed with different numerical methods, and a good agreement was found to exist. Results indicate that the maximum reduction in the average heat transfer was 16.66 percent at Ra number 10^5.

Keywords: Lattice Boltzmann Method Natural convection, Nusselt Number Rayleigh number, Roughness.

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7293 A High Performance Technique in Harmonic Omitting Based on Predictive Current Control of a Shunt Active Power Filter

Authors: K. G. Firouzjah, A. Sheikholeslami

Abstract:

The perfect operation of common Active Filters is depended on accuracy of identification system distortion. Also, using a suitable method in current injection and reactive power compensation, leads to increased filter performance. Due to this fact, this paper presents a method based on predictive current control theory in shunt active filter applications. The harmonics of the load current is identified by using o–d–q reference frame on load current and eliminating the DC part of d–q components. Then, the rest of these components deliver to predictive current controller as a Threephase reference current by using Park inverse transformation. System is modeled in discreet time domain. The proposed method has been tested using MATLAB model for a nonlinear load (with Total Harmonic Distortion=20%). The simulation results indicate that the proposed filter leads to flowing a sinusoidal current (THD=0.15%) through the source. In addition, the results show that the filter tracks the reference current accurately.

Keywords: Active filter, predictive current control, low pass filter, harmonic omitting, o–d–q reference frame.

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7292 Sampled-Data Model Predictive Tracking Control for Mobile Robot

Authors: Wookyong Kwon, Sangmoon Lee

Abstract:

In this paper, a sampled-data model predictive tracking control method is presented for mobile robots which is modeled as constrained continuous-time linear parameter varying (LPV) systems. The presented sampled-data predictive controller is designed by linear matrix inequality approach. Based on the input delay approach, a controller design condition is derived by constructing a new Lyapunov function. Finally, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

Keywords: Model predictive control, sampled-data control, linear parameter varying systems, LPV.

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7291 Forecasting Malaria Cases in Bujumbura

Authors: Hermenegilde Nkurunziza, Albrecht Gebhardt, Juergen Pilz

Abstract:

The focus in this work is to assess which method allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi) when taking into account association between climatic factors and the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed better.

Keywords: Burundi, Forecasting, Malaria, Regressionmodel, State space model.

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7290 Human Growth Curve Estimation through a Combination of Longitudinal and Cross-sectional Data

Authors: Sedigheh Mirzaei S., Debasis Sengupta

Abstract:

Parametric models have been quite popular for studying human growth, particularly in relation to biological parameters such as peak size velocity and age at peak size velocity. Longitudinal data are generally considered to be vital for fittinga parametric model to individual-specific data, and for studying the distribution of these biological parameters in a human population. However, cross-sectional data are easier to obtain than longitudinal data. In this paper, we present a method of combining longitudinal and cross-sectional data for the purpose of estimating the distribution of the biological parameters. We demonstrate, through simulations in the special case ofthePreece Baines model, how estimates based on longitudinal data can be improved upon by harnessing the information contained in cross-sectional data.We study the extent of improvement for different mixes of the two types of data, and finally illustrate the use of the method through data collected by the Indian Statistical Institute.

Keywords: Preece-Baines growth model, MCMC method, Mixed effect model

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7289 Integrated Evaluation of Green Design and Green Manufacturing Processes Using a Mathematical Model

Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Shin-Han Lin

Abstract:

In this research, a mathematical model for integrated evaluation of green design and green manufacturing processes is presented. To design a product, there can be alternative options to design the detailed components to fulfill the same product requirement. In the design alternative cases, the components of the product can be designed with different materials and detailed specifications. If several design alternative cases are proposed, the different materials and specifications can affect the manufacturing processes. In this paper, a new concept for integrating green design and green manufacturing processes is presented. A green design can be determined based the manufacturing processes of the designed product by evaluating the green criteria including energy usage and environmental impact, in addition to the traditional criteria of manufacturing cost. With this concept, a mathematical model is developed to find the green design and the associated green manufacturing processes. In the mathematical model, the cost items include material cost, manufacturing cost, and green related cost. The green related cost items include energy cost and environmental cost. The objective is to find the decisions of green design and green manufacturing processes to achieve the minimized total cost. In practical applications, the decision-making can be made to select a good green design case and its green manufacturing processes. In this presentation, an example product is illustrated. It shows that the model is practical and useful for integrated evaluation of green design and green manufacturing processes.

Keywords: Supply chain management, green supply chain, green design, green manufacturing, mathematical model.

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7288 Adaptive Control Strategy of Robot Polishing Force Based on Position Impedance

Authors: Wang Zhan-Xi, Zhang Yi-Ming, Chen Hang, Wang Gang

Abstract:

Manual polishing has problems such as high labor intensity, low production efficiency and difficulty in guaranteeing the consistency of polishing quality. The use of robot polishing instead of manual polishing can effectively avoid these problems. Polishing force directly affects the quality of polishing, so accurate tracking and control of polishing force is one of the most important conditions for improving the accuracy of robot polishing. The traditional force control strategy is difficult to adapt to the strong coupling of force control and position control during the robot polishing process. Therefore, based on the analysis of force-based impedance control and position-based impedance control, this paper proposed a type of adaptive controller. Based on force feedback control of active compliance control, the controller can adaptively estimate the stiffness and position of the external environment and eliminate the steady-state force error produced by traditional impedance control. The simulation results of the model show that the adaptive controller has good adaptability to changing environmental positions and environmental stiffness, and can accurately track and control polishing force.

Keywords: robot polishing, force feedback, impedance control, adaptive control

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7287 The Model of Blended Learning and Its Use at Foreign Language Teaching

Authors: A. A. Kudysheva, A. N. Kudyshev

Abstract:

In present article the model of Blended Learning, its advantage at foreign language teaching, and also some problems that can arise during its use are considered. The Blended Learning is a special organization of learning, which allows to combine classroom work and modern technologies in electronic distance teaching environment. Nowadays a lot of European educational institutions and companies use such technology. Through this method: student gets the opportunity to learn in a group (classroom) with a teacher and additionally at home at a convenient time; student himself sets the optimal speed and intensity of the learning process; this method helps student to discipline himself and learn to work independently.

Keywords: Foreign language, information and communication technology (ICT), model of Blended Learning, virtual cool room, technophobia

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7286 Simulation Studies of Solid-Particle and Liquid-Drop Erosion of NiAl Alloy

Authors: Rong Liu, Kuiying Chen, Ju Chen, Jingrong Zhao, Ming Liang

Abstract:

This article presents modeling studies of NiAl alloy under solid-particle erosion and liquid-drop erosion. In the solid-particle erosion simulation, attention is paid to the oxide scale thickness variation on the alloy in high-temperature erosion environments. The erosion damage is assumed to be deformation wear and cutting wear mechanisms, incorporating the influence of the oxide scale on the eroded surface; thus the instantaneous oxide thickness is the result of synergetic effect of erosion and oxidation. For liquid-drop erosion, special interest is in investigating the effects of drop velocity and drop size on the damage of the target surface. The models of impact stress wave, mean depth of penetration, and maximum depth of erosion rate (Max DER) are employed to develop various maps for NiAl alloy, including target thickness vs. drop size (diameter), rate of mean depth of penetration (MDRP) vs. drop impact velocity, and damage threshold velocity (DTV) vs. drop size.

Keywords: Liquid-drop erosion, NiAl alloy, oxide scale thickness, solid-particle erosion.

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7285 Decision Support System for Suppliers

Authors: Babak Tashakori Bafghi, Laleh Tashakori, Reza Allahyari Soeini, Mohammad Mokhtari

Abstract:

Supplier selection is a multi criteria decision-making process that comprises tangible and intangible factors. The majority of previous supplier selection techniques do not consider strategic perspective. Besides, uncertainty is one of the most important obstacles in supplier selection. For the first, time in this paper, the idea of the algorithm " Knapsack " is used to select suppliers Moreover, an attempt has to be made to take the advantage of a simple numerical method for solving model .This is an innovation to resolve any ambiguity in choosing suppliers. This model has been tried in the suppliers selected in a competitive environment and according to all desired standards of quality and quantity to show the efficiency of the model, an industry sample has been uses.

Keywords: Knapsack, linear programming, supplier select, supply chain management.

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7284 Finite Volume Model to Study the Effect of Buffer on Cytosolic Ca2+ Advection Diffusion

Authors: Brajesh Kumar Jha, Neeru Adlakha, M. N. Mehta

Abstract:

Calcium [Ca2+] is an important second messenger which plays an important role in signal transduction. There are several parameters that affect its concentration profile like buffer source etc. The effect of stationary immobile buffer on Ca2+ concentration has been incorporated which is a very important parameter needed to be taken into account in order to make the model more realistic. Interdependence of all the important parameters like diffusion coefficient and influx over [Ca2+] profile has been studied. Model is developed in the form of advection diffusion equation together with buffer concentration. A program has been developed using finite volume method for the entire problem and simulated on an AMD-Turion 32-bit machine to compute the numerical results.

Keywords: Ca2+ profile, buffer, Astrocytes, Advection diffusion, FVM

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7283 A DEA Model for Performance Evaluation in The Presence of Time Lag Effect

Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong

Abstract:

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a methodology that computes efficiency values for decision making units (DMU) in a given period by comparing the outputs with the inputs. In many cases, there are some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. For a long-term research project, it is hard to avoid the production lead time phenomenon. This time lag effect should be considered in evaluating the performance of organizations. This paper suggests a model to calculate efficiency values for the performance evaluation problem with time lag. In the experimental part, the proposed methods are compared with the CCR and an existing time lag model using the data set of the 21st century frontier R&D program which is a long-term national R&D program of Korea.

Keywords: DEA, Efficiency, Time Lag

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7282 Kinetic Modeling of the Fischer-Tropsch Reactions and Modeling Steady State Heterogeneous Reactor

Authors: M. Ahmadi Marvast, M. Sohrabi, H. Ganji

Abstract:

The rate of production of main products of the Fischer-Tropsch reactions over Fe/HZSM5 bifunctional catalyst in a fixed bed reactor is investigated at a broad range of temperature, pressure, space velocity, H2/CO feed molar ratio and CO2, CH4 and water flow rates. Model discrimination and parameter estimation were performed according to the integral method of kinetic analysis. Due to lack of mechanism development for Fisher – Tropsch Synthesis on bifunctional catalysts, 26 different models were tested and the best model is selected. Comprehensive one and two dimensional heterogeneous reactor models are developed to simulate the performance of fixed-bed Fischer – Tropsch reactors. To reduce computational time for optimization purposes, an Artificial Feed Forward Neural Network (AFFNN) has been used to describe intra particle mass and heat transfer diffusion in the catalyst pellet. It is seen that products' reaction rates have direct relation with H2 partial pressure and reverse relation with CO partial pressure. The results show that the hybrid model has good agreement with rigorous mechanistic model, favoring that the hybrid model is about 25-30 times faster.

Keywords: Fischer-Tropsch, heterogeneous modeling, kinetic study.

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7281 Experimental Study on Using the Aluminum Sacrificial Anode as a Cathodic Protection for Marine Structures

Authors: A. Radwan, A. Elbatran, A. Mehanna, M. Shehadeh

Abstract:

The corrosion is natural chemical phenomenon that is applied in many engineering structures. Hence, it is one of the important topics to study in the engineering research. Ship and offshore structures are most exposed to corrosion due to the presence of corrosive medium of air and the seawater. Consequently, investigation of the corrosion behavior and properties over ship and offshore hulls is one of the important topics to study in the marine engineering research. Using sacrificial anode is the most popular solution for protecting marine structures from corrosion. Hence, this research investigates the extent of corrosion between the composite ship model and relative velocity of water, along with the sacrificial aluminum anode consumption and its degree of protection in seawater. In this study, the consumption rate of sacrificial aluminum anode with respect to relative velocity at different Reynold’s numbers was studied experimentally, and it was found that, the degree of cathodic protection represented by the cathode potential at a given distance from the aluminum anode was decreased slightly with increment of the relative velocity.

Keywords: Corrosion, Reynold’s numbers, sacrificial anode, velocity.

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7280 A Quantum Algorithm of Constructing Image Histogram

Authors: Yi Zhang, Kai Lu, Ying-hui Gao, Mo Wang

Abstract:

Histogram plays an important statistical role in digital image processing. However, the existing quantum image models are deficient to do this kind of image statistical processing because different gray scales are not distinguishable. In this paper, a novel quantum image representation model is proposed firstly in which the pixels with different gray scales can be distinguished and operated simultaneously. Based on the new model, a fast quantum algorithm of constructing histogram for quantum image is designed. Performance comparison reveals that the new quantum algorithm could achieve an approximately quadratic speedup than the classical counterpart. The proposed quantum model and algorithm have significant meanings for the future researches of quantum image processing.

Keywords: Quantum Image Representation, Quantum Algorithm, Image Histogram.

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7279 Application of MADM in Identifying the Transmission Rate of Dengue fever: A Case Study of Shah Alam, Malaysia

Authors: Nuraini Yusoff, Harun Budin, Salemah Ismail

Abstract:

Identifying parameters in an epidemic model is one of the important aspect of modeling. In this paper, we suggest a method to identify the transmission rate by using the multistage Adomian decomposition method. As a case study, we use the data of the reported dengue fever cases in the city of Shah Alam, Malaysia. The result obtained fairly represents the actual situation. However, in the SIR model, this method serves as an alternative in parameter identification and enables us to make necessary analysis for a smaller interval.

Keywords: dengue fever, multistage Adomian decomposition method, Shah Alam, SIR model

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7278 Proposal of a Model Supporting Decision-Making Based On Multi-Objective Optimization Analysis on Information Security Risk Treatment

Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki (Aiba), Takeshi Hiromatsu

Abstract:

Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Moreover, risks generally have trends and it also should be considered in risk treatment. Therefore, this paper provides the extension of the model proposed in the previous study. The original model supports the selection of measures by applying a combination of weighted average method and goal programming method for multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. The extended model includes the notion of weights to the risks, and the larger weight means the priority of the risk.

Keywords: Information security risk treatment, Selection of risk measures, Risk acceptanceand Multi-objective optimization.

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7277 Thermal Post-buckling of Shape Memory Alloy Composite Plates under Non-uniform Temperature Distribution

Authors: Z.A. Rasid, R. Zahari, A. Ayob, D.L. Majid, A.S.M. Rafie

Abstract:

Aerospace vehicles are subjected to non-uniform thermal loading that may cause thermal buckling. A study was conducted on the thermal post-buckling of shape memory alloy composite plates subjected to the non-uniform tent-like temperature field. The shape memory alloy wires were embedded within the laminated composite plates to add recovery stress to the plates. The non-linear finite element model that considered the recovery stress of the shape memory alloy and temperature dependent properties of the shape memory alloy and composite matrix along with its source codes were developed. It was found that the post-buckling paths of the shape memory alloy composite plates subjected to various tentlike temperature fields were stable within the studied temperature range. The addition of shape memory alloy wires to the composite plates was found to significantly improve the post-buckling behavior of laminated composite plates under non-uniform temperature distribution.

Keywords: Post-buckling, shape memory alloy, temperaturedependent property, tent-like temperature distribution

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7276 Second Order Admissibilities in Multi-parameter Logistic Regression Model

Authors: Chie Obayashi, Hidekazu Tanaka, Yoshiji Takagi

Abstract:

In multi-parameter family of distributions, conditions for a modified maximum likelihood estimator to be second order admissible are given. Applying these results to the multi-parameter logistic regression model, it is shown that the maximum likelihood estimator is always second order inadmissible. Also, conditions for the Berkson estimator to be second order admissible are given.

Keywords: Berkson estimator, modified maximum likelihood estimator, Multi-parameter logistic regression model, second order admissibility.

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7275 Currency Exchange Rate Forecasts Using Quantile Regression

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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7274 Study on the Effect of Bolt Locking Method on the Deformation of Bipolar Plate in PEMFC

Authors: Tao Chen, ShiHua Liu, JiWei Zhang

Abstract:

Assembly of the proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFC) has a very important influence on its performance and efficiency. The various components of PEMFC stack are usually locked and fixed by bolts. Locking bolt will cause the deformation of the bipolar plate and the other components, which will affect directly the deformation degree of the integral parts of the PEMFC as well as the performance of PEMFC. This paper focuses on the object of three-cell stack of PEMFC. Finite element simulation is used to investigate the deformation of bipolar plate caused by quantity and layout of bolts, bolt locking pressure, and bolt locking sequence, etc. Finally, we made a conclusion that the optimal combination packaging scheme was adopted to assemble the fuel cell stack. The scheme was in use of 3.8 MPa locking pressure imposed on the fuel cell stack, type Ⅱ of four locking bolts and longitudinal locking method. The scheme was obtained by comparatively analyzing the overall displacement contour of PEMFC stack, absolute displacement curve of bipolar plate along the given three paths in the Z direction and the polarization curve of fuel cell. The research results are helpful for the fuel cell stack assembly.

Keywords: Bipolar plate, deformation, finite element simulation, fuel cell, locking bolt.

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7273 Decision Support System for Farm Management

Authors: Manpreet Singh, Parvinder Singh, Sumitter Bir Singh

Abstract:

The emergence of information technology has resulted in an ever-increasing demand to use computers for the efficient management and dissemination of information. Keeping in view the strong need of farmers to collect important and updated information for interactive, flexible and quick decision-making, a model of Decision Support System for Farm Management is developed. The paper discusses the use of Internet technology for the farmers to take decisions. A model is developed for the farmers to access online interactive and flexible information for their farm management. The workflow of the model is presented highlighting the information transfer between different modules.

Keywords: Decision Support System, dissemination.

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7272 Development of Rock Engineering System-Based Models for Tunneling Progress Analysis and Evaluation: Case Study of Tailrace Tunnel of Azad Power Plant Project

Authors: S. Golmohammadi, M. Noorian Bidgoli

Abstract:

Tunneling progress is a key parameter in the blasting method of tunneling. Taking measures to enhance tunneling advance can limit the progress distance without a supporting system, subsequently reducing or eliminating the risk of damage. This paper focuses on modeling tunneling progress using three main groups of parameters (tunneling geometry, blasting pattern, and rock mass specifications) based on the Rock Engineering Systems (RES) methodology. In the proposed models, four main effective parameters on tunneling progress are considered as inputs (RMR, Q-system, Specific charge of blasting, Area), with progress as the output. Data from 86 blasts conducted at the tailrace tunnel in the Azad Dam, western Iran, were used to evaluate the progress value for each blast. The results indicated that, for the 86 blasts, the progress of the estimated model aligns mostly with the measured progress. This paper presents a method for building the interaction matrix (statistical base) of the RES model. Additionally, a comparison was made between the results of the new RES-based model and a Multi-Linear Regression (MLR) analysis model. In the RES-based model, the effective parameters are RMR (35.62%), Q (28.6%), q (specific charge of blasting) (20.35%), and A (15.42%), respectively, whereas for MLR analysis, the main parameters are RMR, Q (system), q, and A. These findings confirm the superior performance of the RES-based model over the other proposed models.

Keywords: Rock Engineering Systems, tunneling progress, Multi Linear Regression, Specific charge of blasting.

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7271 A Robust Adaptive Congestion Control Strategy for Large Scale Networks with Differentiated Services Traffic

Authors: R. R. Chen, K. Khorasani

Abstract:

In this paper, a robust decentralized congestion control strategy is developed for a large scale network with Differentiated Services (Diff-Serv) traffic. The network is modeled by a nonlinear fluid flow model corresponding to two classes of traffic, namely the premium traffic and the ordinary traffic. The proposed congestion controller does take into account the associated physical network resource limitations and is shown to be robust to the unknown and time-varying delays. Our proposed decentralized congestion control strategy is developed on the basis of Diff-Serv architecture by utilizing a robust adaptive technique. A Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI) condition is obtained to guarantee the ultimate boundedness of the closed-loop system. Numerical simulation implementations are presented by utilizing the QualNet and Matlab software tools to illustrate the effectiveness and capabilities of our proposed decentralized congestion control strategy.

Keywords: Congestion control, Large scale networks, Decentralized control, Differentiated services traffic, Time-delay systems.

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