Search results for: land use models
2668 Object-Oriented Simulation of Simulating Anticipatory Systems
Authors: Eugene Kindler
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The present paper is oriented to problems of simulation of anticipatory systems, namely those that use simulation models for the aid of anticipation. A certain analogy between use of simulation and imagining will be applied to make the explication more comprehensible. The paper will be completed by notes of problems and by some existing applications. The problems consist in the fact that simulation of the mentioned anticipatory systems end is simulation of simulating systems, i.e. in computer models handling two or more modeled time axes that should be mapped to real time flow in a nondescent manner. Languages oriented to objects, processes and blocks can be used to surmount the problems.
Keywords: Anticipatory systems, Nested computer models, Discrete event simulation, Simula.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14302667 Comparative Analysis of the Stochastic and Parsimonious Interest Rates Models on Croatian Government Market
Authors: Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović, Blanka Škrabić
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The paper provides a discussion of the most relevant aspects of yield curve modeling. Two classes of models are considered: stochastic and parsimonious function based, through the approaches developed by Vasicek (1977) and Nelson and Siegel (1987). Yield curve estimates for Croatia are presented and their dynamics analyzed and finally, a comparative analysis of models is conducted.Keywords: the term structure of interest rates, Vasicek model, Nelson-Siegel model, Croatian Government market.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14922666 Using Exponential Lévy Models to Study Implied Volatility patterns for Electricity Options
Authors: Pinho C., Madaleno M.
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German electricity European options on futures using Lévy processes for the underlying asset are examined. Implied volatility evolution, under each of the considered models, is discussed after calibrating for the Merton jump diffusion (MJD), variance gamma (VG), normal inverse Gaussian (NIG), Carr, Geman, Madan and Yor (CGMY) and the Black and Scholes (B&S) model. Implied volatility is examined for the entire sample period, revealing some curious features about market evolution, where data fitting performances of the five models are compared. It is shown that variance gamma processes provide relatively better results and that implied volatility shows significant differences through time, having increasingly evolved. Volatility changes for changed uncertainty, or else, increasing futures prices and there is evidence for the need to account for seasonality when modelling both electricity spot/futures prices and volatility.Keywords: Calibration, Electricity Markets, Implied Volatility, Lévy Models, Options on Futures, Pricing
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 47922665 Project Management Maturity Models and Organizational Project Management Maturity Model (OPM3®): A Critical Morphological Evaluation
Authors: Farrokh J., Azhar K. Mansur
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There exists a strong correlation between efficient project management and competitive advantage for organizations. Therefore, organizations are striving to standardize and assess the rigor of their project management processes and capabilities i.e. project management maturity. Researchers and standardization organizations have developed several project management maturity models (PMMMs) to assess project management maturity of the organizations. This study presents a critical evaluation of some of the leading PMMMs against OPM3® in a multitude of ways to look at which PMMM is the most comprehensive model - which could assess most aspects of organizations and also help the organizations in gaining competitive advantage over competitors. After a detailed morphological analysis of the models, it is concluded that OPM3® is the most promising maturity model that can really provide a competitive advantage to the organizations due to its unique approach of assessment and improvement strategies.
Keywords: Project management maturity, project managemen tmaturity models, competitive advantage.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 50352664 Generalization of SGIP Surface Tension Force Model in Three-Dimensional Flows and Compare to Other Models in Interfacial Flows
Authors: Afshin Ahmadi Nadooshan, Ebrahim Shirani
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In this paper, the two-dimensional stagger grid interface pressure (SGIP) model has been generalized and presented into three-dimensional form. For this purpose, various models of surface tension force for interfacial flows have been investigated and compared with each other. The VOF method has been used for tracking the interface. To show the ability of the SGIP model for three-dimensional flows in comparison with other models, pressure contours, maximum spurious velocities, norm spurious flow velocities and pressure jump error for motionless drop of liquid and bubble of gas are calculated using different models. It has been pointed out that SGIP model in comparison with the CSF, CSS and PCIL models produces the least maximum and norm spurious velocities. Additionally, the new model produces more accurate results in calculating the pressure jumps across the interface for motionless drop of liquid and bubble of gas which is generated in surface tension force. Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14042663 Software Effort Estimation Using Soft Computing Techniques
Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Porush Bassi, Amanpreet Singh Brar
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Various models have been derived by studying large number of completed software projects from various organizations and applications to explore how project sizes mapped into project effort. But, still there is a need to prediction accuracy of the models. As Neuro-fuzzy based system is able to approximate the non-linear function with more precision. So, Neuro-Fuzzy system is used as a soft computing approach to generate model by formulating the relationship based on its training. In this paper, Neuro-Fuzzy technique is used for software estimation modeling of on NASA software project data and performance of the developed models are compared with the Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili and Doty Models mentioned in the literature.
Keywords: Effort Estimation, Neural-Fuzzy Model, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20692662 An Approach for Optimization of Functions and Reducing the Value of the Product by Using Virtual Models
Authors: A. Bocevska, G. Todorov, T. Neshkov
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New developed approach for Functional Cost Analysis (FCA) based on virtual prototyping (VP) models in CAD/CAE environment, applicable and necessary in developing new products is presented. It is instrument for improving the value of the product while maintaining costs and/or reducing the costs of the product without reducing value. Five broad classes of VP methods are identified. Efficient use of prototypes in FCA is a vital activity that can make the difference between successful and unsuccessful entry of new products into the competitive word market. Successful realization of this approach is illustrated for a specific example using press joint power tool.
Keywords: CAD/CAE environment, Functional Cost Analysis (FCA), Virtual prototyping (VP) models.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13252661 Geopotential Models Evaluation in Algeria Using Stochastic Method, GPS/Leveling and Topographic Data
Authors: M. A. Meslem
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For precise geoid determination, we use a reference field to subtract long and medium wavelength of the gravity field from observations data when we use the remove-compute-restore technique. Therefore, a comparison study between considered models should be made in order to select the optimal reference gravity field to be used. In this context, two recent global geopotential models have been selected to perform this comparison study over Northern Algeria. The Earth Gravitational Model (EGM2008) and the Global Gravity Model (GECO) conceived with a combination of the first model with anomalous potential derived from a GOCE satellite-only global model. Free air gravity anomalies in the area under study have been used to compute residual data using both gravity field models and a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) to subtract the residual terrain effect from the gravity observations. Residual data were used to generate local empirical covariance functions and their fitting to the closed form in order to compare their statistical behaviors according to both cases. Finally, height anomalies were computed from both geopotential models and compared to a set of GPS levelled points on benchmarks using least squares adjustment. The result described in details in this paper regarding these two models has pointed out a slight advantage of GECO global model globally through error degree variances comparison and ground-truth evaluation.
Keywords: Quasigeoid, gravity anomalies, covariance, GGM.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8752660 Spatial Planning and Tourism Development with Sustainability Model of the Territorial Tourist with Land Use Approach
Authors: Mehrangiz Rezaee, Zabih Charrahi
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In the last decade, with increasing tourism destinations and tourism growth, we are witnessing the widespread impacts of tourism on the economy, environment and society. Tourism and its related economy are now undergoing a transformation and as one of the key pillars of business economics, it plays a vital role in the world economy. Activities related to tourism and providing services appropriate to it in an area, like many economic sectors, require the necessary context on its origin. Given the importance of tourism industry and tourism potentials of Yazd province in Iran, it is necessary to use a proper procedure for prioritizing different areas for proper and efficient planning. One of the most important goals of planning is foresight and creating balanced development in different geographical areas. This process requires an accurate study of the areas and potential and actual talents, as well as evaluation and understanding of the relationship between the indicators affecting the development of the region. At the global and regional level, the development of tourist resorts and the proper distribution of tourism destinations are needed to counter environmental impacts and risks. The main objective of this study is the sustainable development of suitable tourism areas. Given that tourism activities in different territorial areas require operational zoning, this study deals with the evaluation of territorial tourism using concepts such as land use, fitness and sustainable development. It is essential to understand the structure of tourism development and the spatial development of tourism using land use patterns, spatial planning and sustainable development. Tourism spatial planning implements different approaches. However, the development of tourism as well as the spatial development of tourism is complex, since tourist activities can be carried out in different areas with different purposes. Multipurpose areas have great important for tourism because it determines the flow of tourism. Therefore, in this paper, by studying the development and determination of tourism suitability that is related to spatial development, it is possible to plan tourism spatial development by developing a model that describes the characteristics of tourism. The results of this research determine the suitability of multi-functional territorial tourism development in line with spatial planning of tourism.
Keywords: Land use change, spatial planning, sustainability, territorial tourist, Yazd.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11062659 New Multi-Solid Thermodynamic Model for the Prediction of Wax Formation
Authors: Ehsan Ghanaei, Feridun Esmaeilzadeh, Jamshid Fathi Kaljahi
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In the previous multi-solid models,¤ò approach is used for the calculation of fugacity in the liquid phase. For the first time, in the proposed multi-solid thermodynamic model,γ approach has been used for calculation of fugacity in the liquid mixture. Therefore, some activity coefficient models have been studied that the results show that the predictive Wilson model is more appropriate than others. The results demonstrate γ approach using the predictive Wilson model is in more agreement with experimental data than the previous multi-solid models. Also, by this method, generates a new approach for presenting stability analysis in phase equilibrium calculations. Meanwhile, the run time in γ approach is less than the previous methods used ¤ò approach. The results of the new model present 0.75 AAD % (Average Absolute Deviation) from the experimental data which is less than the results error of the previous multi-solid models obviously.Keywords: Multi-solid thermodynamic model, PredictiveWilson model, Wax formation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19622658 A Model for Estimation of Efforts in Development of Software Systems
Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Manisha Prashar, Pourush Bassi, Atul Bisht
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Software effort estimation is the process of predicting the most realistic use of effort required to develop or maintain software based on incomplete, uncertain and/or noisy input. Effort estimates may be used as input to project plans, iteration plans, budgets. There are various models like Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili, Doty and GA Based models which have already used to estimate the software effort for projects. In this study Statistical Models, Fuzzy-GA and Neuro-Fuzzy (NF) Inference Systems are experimented to estimate the software effort for projects. The performances of the developed models were tested on NASA software project datasets and results are compared with the Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili, Doty and Genetic Algorithm Based models mentioned in the literature. The result shows that the NF Model has the lowest MMRE and RMSE values. The NF Model shows the best results as compared with the Fuzzy-GA based hybrid Inference System and other existing Models that are being used for the Effort Prediction with lowest MMRE and RMSE values.Keywords: Neuro-Fuzzy Model, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model, GA Based Model, Genetic Algorithm.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 32202657 Investigation Corn and Soybean Intercropping Advantages in Competition with Redroot Pigweed and Jimsonweed
Authors: M. Rezvani, F. Zaefarian, M. Aghaalikhani, H. Rahimian Mashhadi, E. Zand
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The spatial variation in plant species associated with intercropping is intended to reduce resource competition between species and increase yield potential. A field experiment was carried out on corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) intercropping in a replacement series experiment with weed contamination consist of: weed free, infestation of redroot pigweed, infestation of jimsonweed and simultaneous infestation of redroot pigweed and jimsonweed in Karaj, Iran during 2007 growing season. The experimental design was a randomized complete block in factorial experiment with replicated thrice. Significant (P≤0.05) differences were observed in yield in intercropping. Corn yield was higher in intercropping, but soybean yield was significantly reduced by corn when intercropped. However, total productivity and land use efficiency were high under the intercropping system even in contamination of either species of weeds. Aggressivity of corn relative to soybean revealed the greater competitive ability of corn than soybean. Land equivalent ratio (LER) more than 1 in all treatments attributed to intercropping advantages and was highest in 50: 50 (corn/soybean) in weed free. These findings suggest that intercropping corn and soybean increase total productivity per unit area and improve land use efficiency. Considering the experimental findings, corn-soybean intercropping (50:50) may be recommended for yield advantage, more efficient utilization of resources, and weed suppression as a biological control.
Keywords: Corn, soybean, intercropping, redroot pigweed, jimsonweed.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 25902656 Circular Economy Maturity Models: A Systematic Literature Review
Authors: D. Kreutzer, S. Müller-Abdelrazeq, I. Isenhardt
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Resource scarcity, energy transition and the planned climate neutrality pose enormous challenges for manufacturing companies. In order to achieve these goals and a holistic sustainable development, the European Union has listed the circular economy as part of the Circular Economy Action Plan. In addition to a reduction in resource consumption, reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and a reduced volume of waste, the principles of the circular economy also offer enormous economic potential for companies, such as the generation of new circular business models. However, many manufacturing companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, do not have the necessary capacity to plan their transformation. They need support and strategies on the path to circular transformation because this change affects not only production but also the entire company. Maturity models offer an approach to determine the current status of companies’ transformation processes. In addition, companies can use the models to identify transformation strategies and thus promote the transformation process. While maturity models are established in other areas, e.g., IT or project management, only a few circular economy maturity models can be found in the scientific literature. The aim of this paper is to analyze the identified maturity models of the circular economy through a systematic literature review (SLR) and, besides other aspects, to check their completeness as well as their quality. For this purpose, circular economy maturity models at the company's (micro) level were identified from the literature, compared, and analyzed with regard to their theoretical and methodological structure. A specific focus was placed, on the one hand, on the analysis of the business units considered in the respective models and, on the other hand, on the underlying metrics and indicators in order to determine the individual maturity level of the entire company. The results of the literature review show, for instance, a significant difference in the number and types of indicators as well as their metrics. For example, most models use subjective indicators and very few objective indicators in their surveys. It was also found that there are rarely well-founded thresholds between the levels. Based on the generated results, concrete ideas and proposals for a research agenda in the field of circular economy maturity models are made.
Keywords: Circular economy, maturity model, maturity assessment, systematic literature review.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1962655 Evaluation of Environmental, Technical, and Economic Indicators of a Fused Deposition Modeling Process
Authors: M. Yosofi, S. Ezeddini, A. Ollivier, V. Lavaste, C. Mayousse
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Additive manufacturing processes have changed significantly in a wide range of industries and their application progressed from rapid prototyping to production of end-use products. However, their environmental impact is still a rather open question. In order to support the growth of this technology in the industrial sector, environmental aspects should be considered and predictive models may help monitor and reduce the environmental footprint of the processes. This work presents predictive models based on a previously developed methodology for the environmental impact evaluation combined with a technical and economical assessment. Here we applied the methodology to the Fused Deposition Modeling process. First, we present the predictive models relative to different types of machines. Then, we present a decision-making tool designed to identify the optimum manufacturing strategy regarding technical, economic, and environmental criteria.
Keywords: Additive manufacturing, decision-makings, environmental impact, predictive models.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10472654 Performance of Heterogeneous Autoregressive Models of Realized Volatility: Evidence from U.S. Stock Market
Authors: Petr Seďa
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This paper deals with heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility (HAR-RV models) on high-frequency data of stock indices in the USA. Its aim is to capture the behavior of three groups of market participants trading on a daily, weekly and monthly basis and assess their role in predicting the daily realized volatility. The benefits of this work lies mainly in the application of heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility on stock indices in the USA with a special aim to analyze an impact of the global financial crisis on applied models forecasting performance. We use three data sets, the first one from the period before the global financial crisis occurred in the years 2006-2007, the second one from the period when the global financial crisis fully hit the U.S. financial market in 2008-2009 years, and the last period was defined over 2010-2011 years. The model output indicates that estimated realized volatility in the market is very much determined by daily traders and in some cases excludes the impact of those market participants who trade on monthly basis.Keywords: Global financial crisis, heterogeneous autoregressive model, in-sample forecast, realized volatility, U.S. stock market.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24652653 An Improved Variable Tolerance RSM with a Proportion Threshold
Authors: Chen Wu, Youquan Xu, Dandan Li, Ronghua Yang, Lijuan Wang
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In rough set models, tolerance relation, similarity relation and limited tolerance relation solve different situation problems for incomplete information systems in which there exists a phenomenon of missing value. If two objects have the same few known attributes and more unknown attributes, they cannot distinguish them well. In order to solve this problem, we presented two improved limited and variable precision rough set models. One is symmetric, the other one is non-symmetric. They all use more stringent condition to separate two small probability equivalent objects into different classes. The two models are needed to engage further study in detail. In the present paper, we newly form object classes with a different respect comparing to the first suggested model. We overcome disadvantages of non-symmetry regarding to the second suggested model. We discuss relationships between or among several models and also make rule generation. The obtained results by applying the second model are more accurate and reasonable.Keywords: Incomplete information system, rough set, symmetry, variable precision.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8802652 Bridging the Gap between Different Interfaces for Business Process Modeling
Authors: Katalina Grigorova, Kaloyan Mironov
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The paper focuses on the benefits of business process modeling. Although this discipline is developing for many years, there is still necessity of creating new opportunities to meet the ever increasing users’ needs. Because one of these needs is related to the conversion of business process models from one standard to another, the authors have developed a converter between BPMN and EPC standards using workflow patterns as intermediate tool. Nowadays there are too many systems for business process modeling. The variety of output formats is almost the same as the systems themselves. This diversity additionally hampers the conversion of the models. The presented study is aimed at discussing problems due to differences in the output formats of various modeling environments.Keywords: Business process modeling, business process modeling standards, workflow patterns, converting models.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16582651 Automatic Generation of Ontology from Data Source Directed by Meta Models
Authors: Widad Jakjoud, Mohamed Bahaj, Jamal Bakkas
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Through this paper we present a method for automatic generation of ontological model from any data source using Model Driven Architecture (MDA), this generation is dedicated to the cooperation of the knowledge engineering and software engineering. Indeed, reverse engineering of a data source generates a software model (schema of data) that will undergo transformations to generate the ontological model. This method uses the meta-models to validate software and ontological models.
Keywords: Meta model, model, ontology, data source.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19862650 The Estimation of Bird Diversity Loss and Gain as an Impact of Oil Palm Plantation: Study Case in KJNP Estate Riau Province
Authors: Yanto Santosa, Catharina Yudea
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The rapid growth of oil palm industry in Indonesia raised many negative accusations from various parties, who said that oil palm plantation is damaging the environment and biodiversity, including birds. Since research on oil palm plantation impacts on bird diversity is still limited, this study needs to be developed in order to gain further learning and understanding. Data on bird diversity were collected in March 2018 in KJNP Estate, Riau Province using strip transect method on five different land cover types (young, intermediate, and old growth of oil palm plantation, high conservation value area, and crops field or the baseline). The observations were conducted simultaneously, with three repetitions. The result shows that the baseline has 19 species of birds and land cover after the oil palm plantation has 39 species. HCV (high conservation value) area has the highest increase in diversity value. Oil palm plantation has changed the composition of bird species. The highest similarity index is shown by young growth oil palm land cover with total score 0.65, meanwhile the lowest similarity index with total score 0.43 is shown by HCV area. Overall, the existence of oil palm plantation made a positive impact by increasing bird species diversity, with total 23 species gained and 3 species lost.
Keywords: Bird diversity, crops field, impact of oil palm plantation, KJNP estate.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7772649 Design of FIR Filter for Water Level Detection
Authors: Sakol Udomsiri, Masahiro Iwahashi
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This paper proposes a new design of spatial FIR filter to automatically detect water level from a video signal of various river surroundings. A new approach in this report applies "addition" of frames and a "horizontal" edge detector to distinguish water region and land region. Variance of each line of a filtered video frame is used as a feature value. The water level is recognized as a boundary line between the land region and the water region. Edge detection filter essentially demarcates between two distinctly different regions. However, the conventional filters are not automatically adaptive to detect water level in various lighting conditions of river scenery. An optimized filter is purposed so that the system becomes robust to changes of lighting condition. More reliability of the proposed system with the optimized filter is confirmed by accuracy of water level detection.Keywords: water level, video, filter, detection.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22012648 Validating Condition-Based Maintenance Algorithms Through Simulation
Authors: Marcel Chevalier, Léo Dupont, Sylvain Marié, Frédérique Roffet, Elena Stolyarova, William Templier, Costin Vasile
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Industrial end users are currently facing an increasing need to reduce the risk of unexpected failures and optimize their maintenance. This calls for both short-term analysis and long-term ageing anticipation. At Schneider Electric, we tackle those two issues using both Machine Learning and First Principles models. Machine learning models are incrementally trained from normal data to predict expected values and detect statistically significant short-term deviations. Ageing models are constructed from breaking down physical systems into sub-assemblies, then determining relevant degradation modes and associating each one to the right kinetic law. Validating such anomaly detection and maintenance models is challenging, both because actual incident and ageing data are rare and distorted by human interventions, and incremental learning depends on human feedback. To overcome these difficulties, we propose to simulate physics, systems and humans – including asset maintenance operations – in order to validate the overall approaches in accelerated time and possibly choose between algorithmic alternatives.
Keywords: Degradation models, ageing, anomaly detection, soft sensor, incremental learning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3042647 Neuro-fuzzy Model and Regression Model a Comparison Study of MRR in Electrical Discharge Machining of D2 Tool Steel
Authors: M. K. Pradhan, C. K. Biswas,
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In the current research, neuro-fuzzy model and regression model was developed to predict Material Removal Rate in Electrical Discharge Machining process for AISI D2 tool steel with copper electrode. Extensive experiments were conducted with various levels of discharge current, pulse duration and duty cycle. The experimental data are split into two sets, one for training and the other for validation of the model. The training data were used to develop the above models and the test data, which was not used earlier to develop these models were used for validation the models. Subsequently, the models are compared. It was found that the predicted and experimental results were in good agreement and the coefficients of correlation were found to be 0.999 and 0.974 for neuro fuzzy and regression model respectively
Keywords: Electrical discharge machining, material removal rate, neuro-fuzzy model, regression model, mountain clustering.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13792646 Empirical Roughness Progression Models of Heavy Duty Rural Pavements
Authors: Nahla H. Alaswadko, Rayya A. Hassan, Bayar N. Mohammed
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Empirical deterministic models have been developed to predict roughness progression of heavy duty spray sealed pavements for a dataset representing rural arterial roads. The dataset provides a good representation of the relevant network and covers a wide range of operating and environmental conditions. A sample with a large size of historical time series data for many pavement sections has been collected and prepared for use in multilevel regression analysis. The modelling parameters include road roughness as performance parameter and traffic loading, time, initial pavement strength, reactivity level of subgrade soil, climate condition, and condition of drainage system as predictor parameters. The purpose of this paper is to report the approaches adopted for models development and validation. The study presents multilevel models that can account for the correlation among time series data of the same section and to capture the effect of unobserved variables. Study results show that the models fit the data very well. The contribution and significance of relevant influencing factors in predicting roughness progression are presented and explained. The paper concludes that the analysis approach used for developing the models confirmed their accuracy and reliability by well-fitting to the validation data.
Keywords: Roughness progression, empirical model, pavement performance, heavy duty pavement.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7922645 Hardware Description Language Design of Σ-Δ Fractional-N Phase-Locked Loop for Wireless Applications
Authors: Ahmed El Oualkadi, Abdellah Ait Ouahman
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This paper discusses a systematic design of a Σ-Δ fractional-N Phase-Locked Loop based on HDL behavioral modeling. The proposed design consists in describing the mixed behavior of this PLL architecture starting from the specifications of each building block. The HDL models of critical PLL blocks have been described in VHDL-AMS to predict the different specifications of the PLL. The effect of different noise sources has been efficiently introduced to study the PLL system performances. The obtained results are compared with transistor-level simulations to validate the effectiveness of the proposed models for wireless applications in the frequency range around 2.45 GHz.
Keywords: Phase-locked loop, frequency synthesizer, fractional-N PLL, Σ-Δ modulator, HDL models
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 37712644 Using Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) to Assess and Manage Environmental Risks of Pipelines in GIS Environment: A Case Study ofa Near Coastline and Fragile Ecosystem Located Pipeline
Authors: Jahangir Jafari, Nematollah Khorasani, Afshin Danehkar
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Having a very many number of pipelines all over the country, Iran is one of the countries consists of various ecosystems with variable degrees of fragility and robusticity as well as geographical conditions. This study presents a state-of-the-art method to estimate environmental risks of pipelines by recommending rational equations including FES, URAS, SRS, RRS, DRS, LURS and IRS as well as FRS to calculate the risks. This study was carried out by a relative semi-quantitative approach based on land uses and HVAs (High-Value Areas). GIS as a tool was used to create proper maps regarding the environmental risks, land uses and distances. The main logic for using the formulas was the distance-based approaches and ESI as well as intersections. Summarizing the results of the study, a risk geographical map based on the ESIs and final risk score (FRS) was created. The study results showed that the most sensitive and so of high risk area would be an area comprising of mangrove forests located in the pipeline neighborhood. Also, salty lands were the most robust land use units in the case of pipeline failure circumstances. Besides, using a state-of-the-art method, it showed that mapping the risks of pipelines out with the applied method is of more reliability and convenience as well as relative comprehensiveness in comparison to present non-holistic methods for assessing the environmental risks of pipelines. The focus of the present study is “assessment" than that of “management". It is suggested that new policies are to be implemented to reduce the negative effects of the pipeline that has not yet been constructed completelyKeywords: ERM, ESI, ERA, Pipeline, Assalouyeh
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21582643 Wind Power Forecast Error Simulation Model
Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus
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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.
Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 39162642 Study of a BVAR(p) Process Applied to U.S. Commodity Market Data
Authors: Jan Sindelar
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The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.
Keywords: Vector auto-regression, forecasting, financial, Bayesian, efficient markets.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11872641 Effect of Turbulence Models on Simulated Iced Aircraft Airfoil
Authors: Muhammad Afzal, Cao Yihua, Zhao Ming
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The present work describes a computational study of aerodynamic characteristics of GLC305 airfoil clean and with 16.7 min ice shape (rime 212) and 22.5 min ice shape (glaze 944).The performance of turbulence models SA, Kε, Kω Std, and Kω SST model are observed against experimental flow fields at different Mach numbers 0.12, 0.21, 0.28 in a range of Reynolds numbers 3x106, 6x106, and 10.5x106 on clean and iced aircraft airfoil GLC305. Numerical predictions include lift, drag and pitching moment coefficients at different Mach numbers and at different angle of attacks were done. Accuracy of solutions with respect to the effects of turbulence models, variation of Mach number, initial conditions, grid resolution and grid spacing near the wall made the study much sensitive. Navier Stokes equation based computational technique is used. Results are very close to the experimental results. It has seen that SA and SST models are more efficient than Kε and Kω standard in under study problem.Keywords: Aerodynamics, Airfoil GLC305, Iced Airfoil, Turbulence Model
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24592640 Proposal of Additional Fuzzy Membership Functions in Smoothing Transition Autoregressive Models
Authors: Ε. Giovanis
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In this paper we present, propose and examine additional membership functions for the Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models. More specifically, we present the tangent hyperbolic, Gaussian and Generalized bell functions. Because Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models follow fuzzy logic approach, more fuzzy membership functions should be tested. Furthermore, fuzzy rules can be incorporated or other training or computational methods can be applied as the error backpropagation or genetic algorithm instead to nonlinear squares. We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.Keywords: Forecast , Fuzzy membership functions, Smoothingtransition, Time-series
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15162639 An Estimation of Variance Components in Linear Mixed Model
Authors: Shuimiao Wan, Chao Yuan, Baoguang Tian
Abstract:
In this paper, a linear mixed model which has two random effects is broken up into two models. This thesis gets the parameter estimation of the original model and an estimation’s statistical qualities based on these two models. Then many important properties are given by comparing this estimation with other general estimations. At the same time, this paper proves the analysis of variance estimate (ANOVAE) about σ2 of the original model is equal to the least-squares estimation (LSE) about σ2 of these two models. Finally, it also proves that this estimation is better than ANOVAE under Stein function and special condition in some degree.Keywords: Linear mixed model, Random effects, Parameter estimation, Stein function.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1808