Search results for: unavailability periods
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1242

Search results for: unavailability periods

1092 Agro-Measures Influence Soil Physical Parameters in Alternative Farming

Authors: Laura Masilionyte, Danute Jablonskyte-Rasce, Kestutis Venslauskas, Zita Kriauciuniene

Abstract:

Alternative farming systems are used to cultivate high-quality food products and sustain the viability and fertility of the soil. Plant nutrition in all ecosystems depends not only on fertilization intensity or soil richness in organic matter but also on soil physical parameters –bulk density, structure, pores with the optimum moisture and air ratio available to plants. The field experiments of alternative (sustainable and organic) farming systems were conducted at Joniskelis Experimental Station of the Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry in 2006–2016. The soil of the experimental site was Endocalcari-Endohypogleyic Cambisol (CMg-n-w-can). In alternative farming systems, farmyard manure, straw and catch crops for green manure were used for fertilization both in the soil with low and moderate humus contents. It had a more significant effect in the 0–20 cm depth layer on soil moisture than on other physical soil properties. In the agricultural systems, where catch crops were grown, soil physical characteristics did not differ significantly before their biomass incorporation, except for the moisture content, which was lower in rainy periods and higher in drier periods than in the soil of farming systems without catch crops. Soil bulk density and porosity in the topsoil layer were more dependent on soil humus content than on agricultural measures used: in the soil with moderate humus content, compared with the soil with low humus content, bulk density was by 1.4% lower, and porosity by 1.8% higher. The research findings allow to make improvements in alternative farming systems by choosing appropriate combinations of organic fertilizers and catch crops that have a sustainable effect on soil and maintain the sustainability of soil productivity parameters. Rational fertilization systems, securing the stability of soil productivity parameters and crop rotation productivity will promote the development of organic agriculture.

Keywords: agro-measures, soil physical parameters, organic farming, sustainable farming

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1091 Pontine and Lobar Hemorrhage from Venous Infarction secondary to Cerebral Venous Thrombosis in a 70-year old Filipina with Protein S Deficiency: A Case Report

Authors: Michelangelo Liban, Debbie Liquete

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A 70-year-old right-handed Filipina was seen by the Neurology service due to a new onset headache, bi-occipital in location, dull squeezing in character with a pain score of 8/10 with associated nausea and one episode of non-projectile, which provided no relief. Due to the alarming features of the headache despite the absence of risk factors and an essentially normal neurologic examination, a cranial CTA+CTV was done, which revealed a small left frontal and small right pontine hyper density with minimal perilesional edema. Findings also revealed filling defects in the straight and right transverse sinus and a consideration of hypoplastic left transverse sinus with no definite evidence of aneurysm nor A-V malformation. She had normal levels of D-Dimer, Protein C, ANA and Anti-DS DNA but had a low Protein S of 56% (N.V is 70-120%). Antithrombin, homocysteine and Factor V Leiden were not done due to unavailability of the tests. She was then treated as a case of Cerebral Venous Thrombosis with multiple hemorrhage from venous infraction and was given anticoagulants which provided relief of the headache. She did not manifest with any further cortical, bulbar or sensorimotor deficits hence was discharged improved after 15 hospital days. To our knowledge, there are no case reports of patients with CVT from Protein S deficiency and venous anomaly that presented with multiple hemorrhage from venous infarction, more so affecting the brainstem. In this paper, a rare location of CVT in a newly diagnosed Protein S deficient patient is presented together with an uneventful course and favorable outcome.

Keywords: protein S deficiency, cerebral venous thrombosis, pontine hemorrhage from venous infarction, elderly

Procedia PDF Downloads 38
1090 Identifying Enablers and Barriers of Healthcare Knowledge Transfer: A Systematic Review

Authors: Yousuf Nasser Al Khamisi

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Purpose: This paper presents a Knowledge Transfer (KT) Framework in healthcare sectors by applying a systematic literature review process to the healthcare organizations domain to identify enablers and barriers of KT in Healthcare. Methods: The paper conducted a systematic literature search of peer-reviewed papers that described key elements of KT using four databases (Medline, Cinahl, Scopus, and Proquest) for a 10-year period (1/1/2008–16/10/2017). The results of the literature review were used to build a conceptual framework of KT in healthcare organizations. The author used a systematic review of the literature, as described by Barbara Kitchenham in Procedures for Performing Systematic Reviews. Findings: The paper highlighted the impacts of using Knowledge Management (KM) concept at a healthcare organization in controlling infectious diseases in hospitals, improving family medicine performance and enhancing quality improvement practices. Moreover, it found that good-coding performance is analytically linked with a knowledge sharing network structure rich in brokerage and hierarchy rather than in density. The unavailability or ignored of the latest evidence on more cost-effective or more efficient delivery approaches leads to increase the healthcare costs and may lead to unintended results. Originality: Search procedure produced 12,093 results, of which 3523 were general articles about KM and KT. The titles and abstracts of these articles had been screened to segregate what is related and what is not. 94 articles identified by the researchers for full-text assessment. The total number of eligible articles after removing un-related articles was 22 articles.

Keywords: healthcare organisation, knowledge management, knowledge transfer, KT framework

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1089 Accuracy of Fitbit Charge 4 for Measuring Heart Rate in Parkinson’s Patients During Intense Exercise

Authors: Giulia Colonna, Jocelyn Hoye, Bart de Laat, Gelsina Stanley, Jose Key, Alaaddin Ibrahimy, Sule Tinaz, Evan D. Morris

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Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disease and affects approximately 1% of the world’s population. Increasing evidence suggests that aerobic physical exercise can be beneficial in mitigating both motor and non-motor symptoms of the disease. In a recent pilot study of the role of exercise on PD, we sought to confirm exercise intensity by monitoring heart rate (HR). For this purpose, we asked participants to wear a chest strap heart rate monitor (Polar Electro Oy, Kempele). The device sometimes proved uncomfortable. Looking forward to larger clinical trials, it would be convenient to employ a more comfortable and user friendly device. The Fitbit Charge 4 (Fitbit Inc) is a potentially comfortable, user-friendly solution since it is a wrist-worn heart rate monitor. Polar H10 has been used in large trials, and for our purposes, we treated it as the gold standard for the beat-to-beat period (R-R interval) assessment. In previous literature, it has been shown that Fitbit Charge 4 has comparable accuracy to Polar H10 in healthy subjects. It has yet to be determined if the Fitbit is as accurate as the Polar H10 in subjects with PD or in clinical populations, generally. Goal: To compare the Fitbit Charge 4 to the Polar H10 for monitoring HR in PD subjects engaging in an intensive exercise program. Methods: A total of 596 exercise sessions from 11 subjects (6 males) were collected simultaneously by both devices. Subjects with early-stage PD (Hoehn & Yahr <=2) were enrolled in a 6 months exercise training program designed for PD patients. Subjects participated in 3 one-hour exercise sessions per week. They wore both Fitbit and Polar H10 during each session. Sessions included rest, warm-up, intensive exercise, and cool-down periods. We calculated the bias in the HR via Fitbit under rest (5min) and intensive exercise (20min) by comparing the mean HR during each of the periods to the respective means measured by the Polar (HRFitbit – HRPolar). We also measured the sensitivity and specificity of Fitbit for detecting HRs that exceed the threshold for intensive exercise, defined as 70% of an individual’s theoretical maximum HR. Different types of correlation between the two devices were investigated. Results: The mean bias was 1.68 bpm at rest and 6.29 bpm during high intensity exercise, with an overestimation by Fitbit in both conditions. The mean bias of Fitbit across both rest and intensive exercise periods was 3.98 bpm. The sensitivity of the device in identifying high intensity exercise sessions was 97.14 %. The correlation between the two devices was non-linear, suggesting a saturation tendency of Fitbit to saturate at high values of HR. Conclusion: The performance of Fitbit Charge 4 is comparable to Polar H10 for assessing exercise intensity in a cohort of PD subjects. The device should be considered a reasonable replacement for the more cumbersome chest strap technology in future similar studies of clinical populations.

Keywords: fitbit, heart rate measurements, parkinson’s disease, wrist-wearable devices

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1088 Public Functions of Kazakh Modern Literature

Authors: Erkingul Soltanaeva, Omyrkhan Abdimanuly, Alua Temirbolat

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In this article, the public and social functions of literature and art in the Republic of Kazakhstan were analyzed on the basis of formal and informal literary organizations. The external and internal, subjective and objective factors which influenced the modern literary process were determined. The literary forces, their consolidation, types of organization in the art of word were examined. The periods of the literary process as planning, organization, promotion, and evaluation and their leading forces and approaches were analyzed. The right point of view to the language and mentality of the society force will influence to the literary process. The Ministry of Culture, the Writers' Union of RK and various non-governmental organizations are having different events for the promotion of literary process and to glorify literary personalities in the entire territory of Kazakhstan. According to the cultural plan of different state administration, there was a big program in order to publish their literary encyclopedia, to glorify and distribute books of own poets and writers of their region to the country. All of these official measures will increase the reader's interest in the book and will also bring up people to the patriotic education and improve the status of the native language. The professional literary publications such as the newspaper ‘Kazakh literature’, magazine ‘Zhuldyz’, and journal ‘Zhalyn’ materials which were published in the periods 2013-2015 on the basis of statistical analysis of the Kazakh literature topical to the issues and the field of themes are identified and their level of connection with the public situations are defined. The creative freedom, relations between society and the individual, the state of the literature, the problems of advantages and disadvantages were taken into consideration in the same articles. The level of functions was determined through the public role of literature, social feature, personal peculiarities. Now the stages as the literature management planning, organization, motivation, as well as the evaluation are forming and developing in Kazakhstan. But we still need the development of literature management to satisfy the actual requirements of the today’s agenda.

Keywords: literature management, material, literary process, social functions

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1087 Evaluation of Reliability Flood Control System Based on Uncertainty of Flood Discharge, Case Study Wulan River, Central Java, Indonesia

Authors: Anik Sarminingsih, Krishna V. Pradana

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The failure of flood control system can be caused by various factors, such as not considering the uncertainty of designed flood causing the capacity of the flood control system is exceeded. The presence of the uncertainty factor is recognized as a serious issue in hydrological studies. Uncertainty in hydrological analysis is influenced by many factors, starting from reading water elevation data, rainfall data, selection of method of analysis, etc. In hydrological modeling selection of models and parameters corresponding to the watershed conditions should be evaluated by the hydraulic model in the river as a drainage channel. River cross-section capacity is the first defense in knowing the reliability of the flood control system. Reliability of river capacity describes the potential magnitude of flood risk. Case study in this research is Wulan River in Central Java. This river occurring flood almost every year despite some efforts to control floods such as levee, floodway and diversion. The flood-affected areas include several sub-districts, mainly in Kabupaten Kudus and Kabupaten Demak. First step is analyze the frequency of discharge observation from Klambu weir which have time series data from 1951-2013. Frequency analysis is performed using several distribution frequency models such as Gumbel distribution, Normal, Normal Log, Pearson Type III and Log Pearson. The result of the model based on standard deviation overlaps, so the maximum flood discharge from the lower return periods may be worth more than the average discharge for larger return periods. The next step is to perform a hydraulic analysis to evaluate the reliability of river capacity based on the flood discharge resulted from several methods. The selection of the design flood discharge of flood control system is the result of the method closest to bankfull capacity of the river.

Keywords: design flood, hydrological model, reliability, uncertainty, Wulan river

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1086 Solar Powered Front Wheel Drive (FWD) Electric Trike: An Innovation

Authors: Michael C. Barbecho, Romeo B. Morcilla

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This study focused on the development of a solar powered front wheel drive electric trike for personal use and short distance travel, utilizing solar power and a variable speed transmission to adapt in places where varying road grades and unavailability of plug-in charging stations are of great problems. The actual performance of the vehicle was measured in terms of duration of charging using solar power, distance travel and battery power duration, top speed developed at full power, and load capacity. This project followed the research and development process which involved planning, designing, construction, and testing. Solar charging tests revealed that the vehicle requires 6 to 8 hours sunlight exposure to fully charge the batteries. At full charge, the vehicle can travel 35 km utilizing battery power down to 42%. Vehicle showed top speed of 25 kph at 0 to 3% road grade carrying a maximum load of 122 kg. The maximum climbing grade was 23% with the vehicle carrying a maximum load of 122 kg. Technically the project was feasible and can be a potential model for possible conversion of traditional Philippine made “pedicabs” and gasoline engine powered tricycle into modern electric vehicles. Moreover, it has several technical features and advantages over a commercialized electric vehicle such as the use solar charging system and variable speed power transmission and front drive power train for adaptability in any road gradient.

Keywords: electric vehicle, solar vehicles, front drive, solar, solar power

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1085 Postharvest Studies Beyond Fresh Market Eating Quality: Phytochemical Changes in Peach Fruit During Ripening and Advanced Senescence

Authors: Mukesh Singh Mer, Brij Lal Attri, Raj Narayan, Anil Kumar

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Postharvest studies were conducted under the concept that fruit do not qualify for the fresh market may be used as a source of bioactive compounds. One peach (Prunus persica cvs Red June) were evaluated for their photochemical content and antioxidant capacity during the ripening and over ripening periods (advanced senescence) for 12 and 15 d, respectively. Firmness decreased rapidly during this period from an initial pre –ripe stage of 5.85 lb/in2 for peach until the fruit reached the fully ripe stage of lb/in2. In this study we evaluate the varietal performance in respect of the quality beyond fresh market eating and nutrition levels. The varieties are (T-1 F-16-23), (T-2 Florda king), (T-3 Nectarine), (T-4 Red June). The result pertaining are there the highest fruit length (68.50 mm), fruit breadth (71.38 mm), fruit weight (186.11 g) found in T4 Red June and fruit firmness (8.74 lb/in 2) found in T3-Nectarine. The acidity (1.66 %), ascorbic acid (440 mg/100 g), reducing sugar (19.77 %) and total sugar (51.73 %) found in T4- Red June, T-2 Florda King, T-3 Nectarine at harvesting time but decrease in fruit length ( 60.81 mm), fruit breadth (51.84 mm), fruit weight (143.03 g) found in T4 Red June and fruit firmness (6.29 lb/in 2) found in T3-Nectarine. The acidity (0.80 %), ascorbic acid (329.50 mg/100 g), reducing sugar (34.03 %) and total sugar (26.97 %) found in T1- F-16-23, T-2 Florda King, T-1 F-16-23 and T-3 Nectarine after 15 days in freeze conditions when will have been since reached beyond market. The study reveals that the size and yield good in Red June and the nutritional value higher in Florda King and Nectarine peach. Fruit firmness remained unchanged afterwards. In addition, total soluble solids in peach were basically similar during the ripening and over ripening periods. Further research on secondary metabolism regulation during ripening and advanced senescence is needed to obtain fruit as enriched dietary sources of bioactive compounds or for its use in alternative high value health markets including dietary supplements, functional foods cosmetics and pharmaceuticals.

Keywords: metabolism, acidity, ascorbic acid, pharmaceuticals

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1084 Using GIS and Map Data for the Analysis of the Relationship between Soil and Groundwater Quality at Saline Soil Area of Kham Sakaesaeng District, Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand

Authors: W. Thongwat, B. Terakulsatit

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The study area is Kham Sakaesaeng District in Nakhon Ratchasima Province, the south section of Northeastern Thailand, located in the Lower Khorat-Ubol Basin. This region is the one of saline soil area, located in a dry plateau and regularly experience standing with periods of floods and alternating with periods of drought. Especially, the drought in the summer season causes the major saline soil and saline water problems of this region. The general cause of dry land salting resulted from salting on irrigated land, and an excess of water leading to the rising water table in the aquifer. The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship of physical and chemical properties between the soil and groundwater. The soil and groundwater samples were collected in both rainy and summer seasons. The content of pH, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), chloride and salinity were investigated. The experimental result of soil and groundwater samples show the slightly pH less than 7, EC (186 to 8,156 us/cm and 960 to 10,712 us/cm), TDS (93 to 3,940 ppm and 480 to 5,356 ppm), chloride content (45.58 to 4,177,015 mg/l and 227.90 to 9,216,736 mg/l), and salinity (0.07 to 4.82 ppt and 0.24 to 14.46 ppt) in the rainy and summer seasons, respectively. The distribution of chloride content and salinity content were interpolated and displayed as a map by using ArcMap 10.3 program, according to the season. The result of saline soil and brined groundwater in the study area were related to the low-lying topography, drought area, and salt-source exposure. Especially, the Rock Salt Member of Maha Sarakham Formation was exposed or lies near the ground surface in this study area. During the rainy season, salt was eroded or weathered from the salt-source rock formation and transported by surface flow or leached into the groundwater. In the dry season, the ground surface is dry enough resulting salt precipitates from the brined surface water or rises from the brined groundwater influencing the increasing content of chloride and salinity in the ground surface and groundwater.

Keywords: environmental geology, soil salinity, geochemistry, groundwater hydrology

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1083 Sustainability Reporting and Performances of the Companies in the Istanbul Stock Exchange Sustainability Index

Authors: Zeynep Şahin, Züleyha Yılmaz, Fikret Çankaya

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In today's business world, in which it is difficult to survive, the economic life of products, services or knowledge is considerably reduced. Competitors produce similar products or extra-featured ones instantly. In this environment, the contribution of companies to the social and economic environment is a preferred criterion by consumers alongside products or services. Therefore, consumers need to obtain more detailed information about companies. Besides, this drastic change in the market encourages companies to become sustainable. Sustainable business means the company puts consumed products back. Corporate sustainability, corresponds to sustainability at the level of the company, and gives equal importance to company growth and profitability together with environmental and social issues. The BIST Sustainability Index started to be calculated by the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST) in 2014 to evaluate the sustainability performance of companies in Turkey. The main objective of this study is to present the importance of sustainability reports in Turkey. To this aim, the performances of 15 companies in the BIST Sustainability Index were compared the periods before and after entering the index. On the other hand, sustainability reporting practices should be encouraged to increase studies on this issue. In this context, to remain on the agenda of the issue is a further objective of this study. To achieve these objectives, the financial data of the companies in the period before and after entering to the BIST Sustainability Index were analyzed using t-test in Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) package. The results of the study showed that no significant difference between the performances of the companies in terms of the net profit margin, the return on assets and equity capital in these periods could be found. Therefore, it can be said that insufficient importance is given to sustainability issues in Turkey. The reasons for this situation might be considered as a lack of awareness due to the recent introduction and calculation of the index. It is expected that the awareness of firms and investors about sustainability will increase, and that they will demonstrate the necessary importance to this issue over time.

Keywords: sustainability reporting, sustainability index, firm performance, BIST sustainability index

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1082 Criminal Justice System, Health and Imprisonment in India

Authors: Debolina Chatterjee, Suhita Chopra Chatterjee

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Imprisonment is an expansive concept, as it is regulated by laws under criminal justice system of the state. The state sets principles of punishment to control offenders and also puts limits to excess punitive control. One significant way through which it exercises control is through rules governing healthcare of imprisoned population. Prisons signify specialized settings which accommodate both medical and legal concerns. The provision of care operates within the institutional paradigm of punishment. This requires the state to negotiate adequately between goals of punishment and fulfilment of basic human rights of offenders. The present study is based on a critical analysis of prison healthcare standards in India, which include government policies and guidelines. It also demonstrates how healthcare is delivered by drawing insights from a primary study conducted in a correctional home in the state of West Bengal, India, which houses both male and female inmates. Forty women were interviewed through semi-structured interviews, followed by focus group discussions. Doctors and administrative personnel were also interviewed. Findings show how institutional practices control women through subversion of the role of doctors to prison administration. Also, poor healthcare infrastructure, unavailability of specialized services, hierarchies between personnel and inmates make prisons unlikely sites for therapeutic intervention. The paper further discusses how institutional practices foster gender-based discriminatory practices.

Keywords: imprisonment, Indian prisons, prison healthcare, punishment

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1081 Exploring the Influence of Climate Change on Food Behavior in Medieval France: A Multi-Method Analysis of Human-Animal Interactions

Authors: Unsain Dianne, Roussel Audrey, Goude Gwenaëlle, Magniez Pierre, Storå Jan

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This paper aims to investigate the changes in husbandry practices and meat consumption during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age in the South of France. More precisely, we will investigate breeding strategies, animal size and health status, carcass exploitation strategies, and the impact of socioeconomic status on human-environment interactions. For that purpose, we will analyze faunal remains from ten sites equally distributed between the two periods. Those include consumers from different socio-economic backgrounds (peasants, city dwellers, soldiers, lords, and the Popes). The research will employ different methods used in zooarchaeology: comparative anatomy, biometry, pathologies analyses, traceology, and utility indices, as well as experimental archaeology, to reconstruct and understand the changes in animal breeding and consumption practices. Their analysis will allow the determination of modifications in the animal production chain, with the composition of the flocks (species, size), their management (age, sex, health status), culinary practices (strategies for the exploitation of carcasses, cooking, tastes) or the importance of trade (butchers, sales of processed animal products). The focus will also be on the social extraction of consumers. The aim will be to determine whether climate change has had a greater impact on the most modest groups (such as peasants), whether the consequences have been global and have also affected the highest levels of society, or whether the social and economic factors have been sufficient to balance out the climatic hazards, leading to no significant changes. This study will contribute to our understanding of the impact of climate change on breeding and consumption strategies in medieval society from a historical and social point of view. It combines various research methods to provide a comprehensive analysis of the changes in human-animal interactions during different climatic periods.

Keywords: archaeology, animal economy, cooking, husbandry practices, climate change, France

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1080 Elucidating the Defensive Role of Silicon-Induced Biochemical Responses in Wheat Exposed to Drought and Diuraphis noxia Infestation

Authors: Lintle Mohase, Ninikoe Lebusa, Mpho Stephen Mafa

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Wheat is an economically important cereal crop. However, the changing climatic conditions that intensify drought in production areas, and additional pest infestation, such as the Russian wheat aphid (RWA, Diuraphis noxia), severely hamper its production. Drought and pest management require an additional water supply through irrigation and applying inorganic nutrients (including silicon) as alternative strategies to mitigate the stress effects. Therefore, other approaches are needed to enhance wheat productivity during drought stress and aphid abundance. Two wheat cultivars were raised under greenhouse conditions, exposed to drought stress, and treated with silicon before infestation with the South African RWA biotype 2 (RWASA2). The morphological evaluations showed that severe drought or a combination of drought and infestation significantly reduced the plant height of wheat cultivars. Silicon treatment did not alleviate the growth reduction. The biochemical responses were measured using spectrophotometric assays with specific substrates. An evaluation of the enzyme activities associated with oxidative stress and defence responses indicated that drought stress increased NADPH oxidase activity, while silicon treatment significantly reduced it in drought-stressed and infested plants. At 48 and 72 hours sampling periods, a combination of silicon, drought and infestation treatment significantly increased peroxidase activity compared to drought and infestation treatment. The treatment also increased β-1,3-glucanase activity 72 hours after infestation. In addition, silicon and drought treatment increased glucose but reduced sucrose accumulation. Furthermore, silicon, drought, and infestation treatment combinations reduced the sucrose content. Finally, silicon significantly increased the trehalose content under severe drought and infestation, evident at 48 and 72-hour sampling periods. Our findings shed light on silicon’s ability to induce protective biochemical responses during drought and aphid infestation.

Keywords: drought, enzyme activity, silicon, soluble sugars, Russian wheat aphid, wheat

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1079 Prediction of Springback in U-bending of W-Temper AA6082 Aluminum Alloy

Authors: Jemal Ebrahim Dessie, Lukács Zsolt

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High-strength aluminum alloys have drawn a lot of attention because of the expanding demand for lightweight vehicle design in the automotive sector. Due to poor formability at room temperature, warm and hot forming have been advised. However, warm and hot forming methods need more steps in the production process and an advanced tooling system. In contrast, since ordinary tools can be used, forming sheets at room temperature in the W temper condition is advantageous. However, springback of supersaturated sheets and their thinning are critical challenges and must be resolved during the use of this technique. In this study, AA6082-T6 aluminum alloy was solution heat treated at different oven temperatures and times using a specially designed and developed furnace in order to optimize the W-temper heat treatment temperature. A U-shaped bending test was carried out at different time periods between W-temper heat treatment and forming operation. Finite element analysis (FEA) of U-bending was conducted using AutoForm aiming to validate the experimental result. The uniaxial tensile and unload test was performed in order to determine the kinematic hardening behavior of the material and has been optimized in the Finite element code using systematic process improvement (SPI). In the simulation, the effect of friction coefficient & blank holder force was considered. Springback parameters were evaluated by the geometry adopted from the NUMISHEET ’93 benchmark problem. It is noted that the change of shape was higher at the more extended time periods between W-temper heat treatment and forming operation. Die radius was the most influential parameter at the flange springback. However, the change of shape shows an overall increasing tendency on the sidewall as the increase of radius of the punch than the radius of the die. The springback angles on the flange and sidewall seem to be highly influenced by the coefficient of friction than blank holding force, and the effect becomes increases as increasing the blank holding force.

Keywords: aluminum alloy, FEA, springback, SPI, U-bending, W-temper

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1078 An Optimal Perspective on Research in Translation Studies

Authors: Andrea Musumeci

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General theory of translation has suffered the lack of a homogeneous academic dialect, a holistic methodology to account for the diversity of factors involved in the discipline. An underlying pattern amongst theories of translation belonging to different periods and schools has been identified. Such pattern, which is linguistics oriented, could play a role towards unified academic and professional environments, both in terms of research and as a professional category. The implementation of such an approach has also led to a critique of the concept of equivalence, as being not the best of ways to account for translating phenomena.

Keywords: optimal, translating, research translation theory, methodology, descriptive analysis

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1077 Aerofloral Studies and Allergenicity Potentials of Dominant Atmospheric Pollen Types at Some Locations in Northwestern Nigeria

Authors: Olugbenga S. Alebiosu, Olusola H. Adekanmbi, Oluwatoyin T. Ogundipe

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Pollen and spores have been identified as major airborne bio-particles inducing respiratory disorders such as asthma, allergic rhinitis and atopic dermatitis among hypersensitive individuals. An aeropalynological study was conducted within a one year sampling period with a view to investigating the monthly depositional rate of atmospheric pollen and spores; influence of the immediate vegetation on airborne pollen distribution; allergenic potentials of dominant atmospheric pollen types at selected study locations in Bauchi and Taraba states, Northwestern Nigeria. A tauber-like pollen trap was employed in aerosampling with the sampler positioned at a height of 5 feet above the ground, followed by a monthly collection of the recipient solution for the sampling period. The collected samples were subjected to acetolysis treatment, examined microscopically with the identification of pollen grains and spores using reference materials and published photomicrographs. Plants within the surrounding vegetation were enumerated. Crude protein contents extracted from pollen types found to be commonly dominant at both study locations; Senna siamea, Terminalia cattapa, Panicum maximum and Zea mays were used to sensitize Musmusculus. Histopathological studies of bronchi and lung sections from certain dead M.musculus in the test groups was conducted. Blood samples were collected from the pre-orbital vein of M.musculus and processed for serological and haematological (differential and total white blood cell counts) studies. ELISA was used in determining the levels of serological parameters: IgE and cytokines (TNF-, IL-5, and IL-13). Statistical significance was observed in the correlation between the levels of serological and haematological parameters elicited by each test group, differences between the levels of serological and haematological parameters elicited by each test group and those of the control, as well as at varying sensitization periods. The results from this study revealed dominant airborne pollen types across the study locations; Syzygiumguineense, Tridaxprocumbens, Elaeisguineensis, Mimosa sp., Borreria sp., Terminalia sp., Senna sp. and Poaceae. Nephrolepis sp., Pteris sp. and a trilete fern also produced spores. This study also revealed that some of the airborne pollen types were produced by local plants at the study locations. Bronchi sections of M.musculus after first and second sensitizations, as well as lung section after first sensitization with Senna siamea, showed areas of necrosis. Statistical significance was recorded in the correlation between the levels of some serological and haematological parameters produced by each test group and those of the control, as well as at certain sensitization periods. The study revealed some candidate pollen allergens at the study locations allergy sufferers and also established a complexity of interaction between immune cells, IgE and cytokines at varied periods of mice sensitization and forming a paradigm of human immune response to different pollen allergens. However, it is expedient that further studies should be conducted on these candidate pollen allergens for their allergenicity potential in humans within their immediate environment.

Keywords: airborne, hypersensitive, mus musculus, pollen allergens, respiratory, tauber-like

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1076 The Impact of Geopolitical Risks and the Oil Price Fluctuations on the Kuwaiti Financial Market

Authors: Layal Mansour

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The aim of this paper is to identify whether oil price volatility or geopolitical risks can predict future financial stress periods or economic recessions in Kuwait. We construct the first Financial Stress Index for Kuwait (FSIK) that includes informative vulnerable indicators of the main financial sectors: the banking sector, the equities market, and the foreign exchange market. The study covers the period from 2000 to 2020, so it includes the two recent most devastating world economic crises with oil price fluctuation: the Covid-19 pandemic crisis and Ukraine-Russia War. All data are taken by the central bank of Kuwait, the World Bank, IMF, DataStream, and from Federal Reserve System St Louis. The variables are computed as the percentage growth rate, then standardized and aggregated into one index using the variance equal weights method, the most frequently used in the literature. The graphical FSIK analysis provides detailed information (by dates) to policymakers on how internal financial stability depends on internal policy and events such as government elections or resignation. It also shows how monetary authorities or internal policymakers’ decisions to relieve personal loans or increase/decrease the public budget trigger internal financial instability. The empirical analysis under vector autoregression (VAR) models shows the dynamic causal relationship between the oil price fluctuation and the Kuwaiti economy, which relies heavily on the oil price. Similarly, using vector autoregression (VAR) models to assess the impact of the global geopolitical risks on Kuwaiti financial stability, results reveal whether Kuwait is confronted with or sheltered from geopolitical risks. The Financial Stress Index serves as a guide for macroprudential regulators in order to understand the weakness of the overall Kuwaiti financial market and economy regardless of the Kuwaiti dinar strength and exchange rate stability. It helps policymakers predict future stress periods and, thus, address alternative cushions to confront future possible financial threats.

Keywords: Kuwait, financial stress index, causality test, VAR, oil price, geopolitical risks

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1075 Monitoring Systemic Risk in the Hedge Fund Sector

Authors: Frank Hespeler, Giuseppe Loiacono

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We propose measures for systemic risk generated through intra-sectorial interdependencies in the hedge fund sector. These measures are based on variations in the average cross-effects of funds showing significant interdependency between their individual returns and the moments of the sector’s return distribution. The proposed measures display a high ability to identify periods of financial distress, are robust to modifications in the underlying econometric model and are consistent with intuitive interpretation of the results.

Keywords: hedge funds, systemic risk, vector autoregressive model, risk monitoring

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1074 Linking Milk Price and Production Costs with Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Luxembourgish Dairy Farms

Authors: Rocco Lioy, Tom Dusseldorf, Aline Lehnen, Romain Reding

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A study concerning both the rentability and ecological performance of dairy production in Luxembourg was carried out for the years 2017, 2018 and 2019. The data of 100 dairy farms, referring to the Greenhouse gas emissions (ecology) and the profitability (economy) of dairy production, were evaluated, and the average was compared to the corresponding figures of 80 Luxembourgish dairy farms evaluated in the years 2014, 2015 and 2016. The ecological evaluation could confirm that farm efficiency (especially defined as the lowest ratio between used feedstuff and produced milk) is the key driver for significantly reducing the level of emissions in dairy farms. In both farm groups and in the two periods, the efficient farms show almost the same level of emissions per kg ECM (1,17 kg CO2-eq) in comparison with intensive farms (1,13 kg CO2-eq), and at the same time a by far lowest level of emissions related to the production surface (9,9 vs. 13,9 t CO2-eq/ha). Concerning the economic performances, it could be observed that in the years 2017, 2018 and 2019, the intensive farms (we define intensity in the first place in terms of produced milk pro ha) reached a higher profit (incomes minus costs, only consideration for subsidies) than the efficient farms (4,8 vs. 2,6 €-cent/kg ECM), in contradiction with the observation of the years 2014, 2015 and 2015 (1,5 vs. 3,7 €-cent/kg ECM). The most important reason for this divergent behavior was a change in income and cost structure in the considered periods. In the last period (2017, 2018 and 2019), the milk price was considerably higher than in the previous period, and the production costs were lower. This was of advantage for intensive farms, which produce the highest quantity of milk with a high amount of production means. In the period 2014, 2015 and 2016, with lower milk prices but comparable production costs, the advantage was with efficient farms. In conclusion, we expect that in the next future, when especially the production costs will presumably be much higher than in the last years, the profitableness of dairy farming will decrease. In this case, we assume that efficient farms will provide not only an ecologically but also an economically better performance than production-intensive farms. High milk prices and low production costs are no good incentives for carbon-smart farming.

Keywords: efficiency, intensity, dairy, emissions, prices, costs

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1073 Development of an Online Raw-Vegan Eating Program to Reduce Sugar Intake

Authors: Sara D. Garduno-Diaz, Lorena Loriato

Abstract:

Food selection is one of the main modifiable risk factors for the avoidance of several detrimental health conditions. Excessive and regular sugar intake has been identified as highly unfavorable, yet a highly occurring practice. A proposed approach to modify this eating practice is the online program developed here. The program targets a modification of mindset and lifestyle habits around food, through a four week raw-vegan guided eating program. While the focus of the program is to set up sustainable changes in sugar intake reduction, it also aims to promote a plant-based eating style. Three pilot sessions have been run with participants from seven different countries. Participants are guided through the program via a combination of daily e-mails, a 24-hour support platform, and by-weekly remote live sessions. Meal preparation techniques, as well as cooking instructions, are provided, following set menus developed by a team of professional chefs and nutritionists. Goal setting, as well as alternatives to specific food-related challenges, is addressed. While the program is intended for both women and men, the majority of participants to date have been female. Feedback has been positive, with changes in eating habits have included an elimination of added sugars, an increase in home cooking and vegetable intake, and a reduction in foods of animal origin. Difficulties in following the program have been reported as unavailability of certain ingredients depending on the country of residence of the participants, social and cultural hurdles, and time restrictions. Nevertheless, the results obtained to date indicate this to be a highly interactive program with the potential to be scaled up and applied to various populations as a public health measure on the way to better health.

Keywords: eating habits, food addiction, nutrition education, plant-based, remote practice

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1072 Improvement of Artemisinin Production by P. indica in Hairy Root Cultures of A. annua L.

Authors: Seema Ahlawat, Parul Saxena, Malik Zainul Abdin

Abstract:

Malaria is a major health problem in many developing countries. The parasite responsible for the vast majority of fatal malaria infections is Plasmodium falciparum. Unfortunately, most Plasmodium strains including P. falciparum have become resistant to most of the antimalarials including chloroquine, mefloquine, etc. To combat this problem, WHO has recommended the use of artemisinin and its derivatives in artemisinin based combination therapy (ACT). Due to its current use in artemisinin based-combination therapy (ACT), its global demand is increasing continuously. But, the relatively low yield of artemisinin in A. annua L. plants and unavailability of economically viable synthetic protocols are the major bottlenecks for its commercial production and clinical use. Chemical synthesis of artemisinin is also very complex and uneconomical. The hairy root system, using the Agrobacterium rhizogenes LBA 9402 strain to enhance the production of artemisinin in A. annua L., is developed in our laboratory. The transgenic nature of hairy root lines and the copy number of trans gene (rol B) were confirmed using PCR and Southern Blot analyses, respectively. The effect of different concentrations of Piriformospora indica on artemisinin production in hairy root cultures were evaluated. 3% P. indica has resulted 1.97 times increase in artemisinin production in comparison to control cultures. The effects of P. indica on artemisinin production was positively correlated with regulatory genes of MVA, MEP and artemisinin biosynthetic pathways, viz. hmgr, ads, cyp71av1, aldh1, dxs, dxr and dbr2 in hairy root cultures of A. annua L. Mass scale cultivation of A. annua L. hairy roots by plant tissue culture technology may be an alternative route for production of artemisinin. A comprehensive investigation of the hairy root system of A. annua L. would help in developing a viable process for the production of artemisinin. The efficiency of the scaling up systems still needs optimization before industrial exploitation becomes viable.

Keywords: A. annua L., artemisinin, hairy root cultures, malaria

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1071 Clinical Outcomes of Toric Implantable Collamer Lens (T-ICL) and Toric Implantable Phakic Contact Lens (IPCL) for Correction of High Myopia with Astigmatism: Comparative Study

Authors: Mohamed Salah El-Din Mahmoud, Heba Radi Atta Allah

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Background: Our study assesses the safety profile and efficacy of toric Implantable Collamer Lens (T-ICL) and toric implantable phakic contact lens (IPCL) for the correction of high myopia with astigmatism. Methods: A prospective interventional randomized comparative study included 60 myopic eyes divided into 2 groups, group A including 30 eyes that were implanted with T-ICL, and group B including 30 eyes that were implanted with toric IPCL. The refractive results, visual acuity, corneal endothelial cell count, and intraocular pressure (IOP) were evaluated at baseline and at 1, 6, and 9 months post-surgery. Any complications either during or after surgery were assessed. Results: A significant reduction in both spherical and cylindrical refractive errors with good predictability was reported in both groups compared with preoperative values. Regarding the predictability, In T-ICL group (A), the median spherical and cylindrical errors were significantly improved from (-10 D & -4.5 D) pre-operatively to (-0.25 D & - 0.3 D) at the end of 9 months follow up period. Similarly, in the toric IPCL group (B), the median spherical and cylindrical errors were significantly improved from (-11 D & -4.5 D) pre-operatively to (-0.25 D & - 0.3 D) at the end of 9 months follow up period. A statistically significant improvement of UCDVA at 9 months postoperatively was found in both groups, as median preoperative Log Mar UCDVA was 1.1 and 1.3 in groups A and B respectively, which was significantly improved to 0.2 in both groups at the end of follow-up period. Regarding IOP, no significant difference was found between both groups, either pre-operatively or during the postoperative period. Regarding the endothelial count, no significant differences were found during the pre-operative and postoperative follow-up periods between the two groups. Fortunately, no intra or postoperative complications as cataract, keratitis or lens decentration had occurred. Conclusions: Toric IPCL is a suitable alternative to T-ICL for the management of high myopia with astigmatism, especially in developing countries, as it is cheaper and easier for implantation than T-ICL. However, data over longer follow-up periods are needed to confirm its safety and stability.

Keywords: T-ICL, Toric IPCL, IOP, corneal endothelium

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1070 Feature Selection Approach for the Classification of Hydraulic Leakages in Hydraulic Final Inspection using Machine Learning

Authors: Christian Neunzig, Simon Fahle, Jürgen Schulz, Matthias Möller, Bernd Kuhlenkötter

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Manufacturing companies are facing global competition and enormous cost pressure. The use of machine learning applications can help reduce production costs and create added value. Predictive quality enables the securing of product quality through data-supported predictions using machine learning models as a basis for decisions on test results. Furthermore, machine learning methods are able to process large amounts of data, deal with unfavourable row-column ratios and detect dependencies between the covariates and the given target as well as assess the multidimensional influence of all input variables on the target. Real production data are often subject to highly fluctuating boundary conditions and unbalanced data sets. Changes in production data manifest themselves in trends, systematic shifts, and seasonal effects. Thus, Machine learning applications require intensive pre-processing and feature selection. Data preprocessing includes rule-based data cleaning, the application of dimensionality reduction techniques, and the identification of comparable data subsets. Within the used real data set of Bosch hydraulic valves, the comparability of the same production conditions in the production of hydraulic valves within certain time periods can be identified by applying the concept drift method. Furthermore, a classification model is developed to evaluate the feature importance in different subsets within the identified time periods. By selecting comparable and stable features, the number of features used can be significantly reduced without a strong decrease in predictive power. The use of cross-process production data along the value chain of hydraulic valves is a promising approach to predict the quality characteristics of workpieces. In this research, the ada boosting classifier is used to predict the leakage of hydraulic valves based on geometric gauge blocks from machining, mating data from the assembly, and hydraulic measurement data from end-of-line testing. In addition, the most suitable methods are selected and accurate quality predictions are achieved.

Keywords: classification, achine learning, predictive quality, feature selection

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1069 Adaptation of Research Methodology in a Culture: A Reflection from Bangladesh

Authors: Umme Habiba Jasmine, Mzikazi Nduna

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Due to the dearth of exploratory research in Bangladesh on parenting practices and transmission thereof, there is a lack of information on culture-sensitive methodology in studying this topic. This paper aims to share some methodological reflections from the research field, which will address this knowledge gap. Eleven dyads of biological mothers and maternal grandmothers of school-going children constituted the sample, and a female fieldworker conducted one-to-one, semi-structured, in-depth interviews with them. The participants were recruited through purposive sampling through a representative of a cooperative society in Mirpur area in Bangladesh. Four dyads of the sample outside that eleven dyads were discarded because of the unavailability of the other participant of the dyads or unsuitability for an in-depth interview. The sample recruitment strategy of approaching mothers without their known reference body had to be discarded because of existing social insecurity in Dhaka city. To meet the cultural demand of the research field the researcher had to change in the research plan and comply with the cultural tradition of mutual entertainment with food while conducting interviews which helped in engaging in positive interaction. Also, the researcher had to compromise the strict confidentiality to a collectivistic sense of confidentiality of the in-depth interview sessions. This study suggests future researchers to investigate Bangladeshi traditional practices and accommodate the applicable ones in their research plan for qualitative studies, especially the Bengali tradition of hospitality and shared confidentiality for building rapport and for proper access to the targeted information and research participants. Sample recruitment should always accompany a well-accepted reference person in the targeted research field.

Keywords: confidentiality, culture-sensitive, ethics, parenting practices, sampling

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1068 Identification of Risks Associated with Process Automation Systems

Authors: J. K. Visser, H. T. Malan

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A need exists to identify the sources of risks associated with the process automation systems within petrochemical companies or similar energy related industries. These companies use many different process automation technologies in its value chain. A crucial part of the process automation system is the information technology component featuring in the supervisory control layer. The ever-changing technology within the process automation layers and the rate at which it advances pose a risk to safe and predictable automation system performance. The age of the automation equipment also provides challenges to the operations and maintenance managers of the plant due to obsolescence and unavailability of spare parts. The main objective of this research was to determine the risk sources associated with the equipment that is part of the process automation systems. A secondary objective was to establish whether technology managers and technicians were aware of the risks and share the same viewpoint on the importance of the risks associated with automation systems. A conceptual model for risk sources of automation systems was formulated from models and frameworks in literature. This model comprised six categories of risk which forms the basis for identifying specific risks. This model was used to develop a questionnaire that was sent to 172 instrument technicians and technology managers in the company to obtain primary data. 75 completed and useful responses were received. These responses were analyzed statistically to determine the highest risk sources and to determine whether there was difference in opinion between technology managers and technicians. The most important risks that were revealed in this study are: 1) the lack of skilled technicians, 2) integration capability of third-party system software, 3) reliability of the process automation hardware, 4) excessive costs pertaining to performing maintenance and migrations on process automation systems, and 5) requirements of having third-party communication interfacing compatibility as well as real-time communication networks.

Keywords: distributed control system, identification of risks, information technology, process automation system

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1067 An Empirical Investigation of Uncertainty and the Lumpy Investment Channel of Monetary Policy

Authors: Min Fang, Jiaxi Yang

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Monetary policy could be less effective at stimulating investment during periods of elevated volatility than during normal times. In this paper, we argue that elevated volatility leads to a decrease in extensive margin investment incentive so that nominal stimulus generates less aggregate investment. To do this, we first empirically document that high volatility weakens firms’ investment responses to monetary stimulus. Such effects depend on the lumpiness nature of the firm-level investment. The findings are that the channel exists for all of the physical investment, innovation investment, and organization investment.

Keywords: investment, irreversibility, volatility, uncertainty, firm heterogeneity, monetary policy

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1066 Artificial Intelligence Based Online Monitoring System for Cardiac Patient

Authors: Syed Qasim Gilani, Muhammad Umair, Muhammad Noman, Syed Bilawal Shah, Aqib Abbasi, Muhammad Waheed

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Cardiovascular Diseases(CVD's) are the major cause of death in the world. The main reason for these deaths is the unavailability of first aid for heart failure. In many cases, patients die before reaching the hospital. We in this paper are presenting innovative online health service for Cardiac Patients. The proposed online health system has two ends. Users through device developed by us can communicate with their doctor through a mobile application. This interface provides them with first aid.Also by using this service, they have an easy interface with their doctors for attaining medical advice. According to the proposed system, we developed a device called Cardiac Care. Cardiac Care is a portable device which a patient can use at their home for monitoring heart condition. When a patient checks his/her heart condition, Electrocardiogram (ECG), Blood Pressure(BP), Temperature are sent to the central database. The severity of patients condition is checked using Artificial Intelligence Algorithm at the database. If the patient is suffering from the minor problem, our algorithm will suggest a prescription for patients. But if patient's condition is severe, patients record is sent to doctor through the mobile Android application. Doctor after reviewing patients condition suggests next step. If a doctor identifies the patient condition as critical, then the message is sent to the central database for sending an ambulance for the patient. Ambulance starts moving towards patient for bringing him/her to hospital. We have implemented this model at prototype level. This model will be life-saving for millions of people around the globe. According to this proposed model patients will be in contact with their doctors all the time.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease, classification, electrocardiogram, blood pressure

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1065 On the Efficiency of the Algerian FRR Sovereign Fund

Authors: Abdelkader Guendouz, Fatima Zohra Adel

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Since about two decades, the Algerian government created a new instrument in the field of its fiscal policy, which is the FRR (Fonds de Régulation des Recettes). The FRR is a sovereign fund, which the initial role was saving the surplus generated by the fixation of a referential oil price to establish the state budget in the aim equilibrium between budgetary incomes and public expenditures. After a while, the government turns to use this instrument in boosting the public investment more than keeping for funding a deficit budget in periods of crisis. This lead to ask some justified questions about the efficiency of this sovereign fund and its real role.

Keywords: FRR sovereign fund, public expenditures, public investment, efficiency

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1064 Development of a Rice Fortification Technique Using Vacuum Assisted Rapid Diffusion for Low Cost Encapsulation of Fe and Zn

Authors: R. A. C. H. Seneviratne, M. Gunawardana, R. P. N. P. Rajapakse

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To address the micronutrient deficiencies in the Asian region, the World Food Program in its current mandate highlights the requirement of employing efficient fortification of micronutrients in rice, under the program 'Scaling-up Rice Fortification in Asia'. The current industrial methods of rice fortification with micronutrients are not promising due to poor permeation or retention of fortificants. This study was carried out to develop a method to improve fortification of micronutrients in rice by removing the air barriers for diffusing micronutrients through the husk. For the purpose, soaking stage of paddy was coupled with vacuum (- 0.6 bar) for different time periods. Both long and short grain varieties of paddy (BG 352 and BG 358, respectively) initially tested for water uptake during hot soaking (70 °C) under vacuum (28.5 and 26.15%, respectively) were significantly (P < 0.05) higher than that of non-vacuum conditions (25.24 and 25.45% respectively), exhibiting the effectiveness of water diffusion into the rice grains through the cleared pores under negative pressure. To fortify the selected micronutrients (iron and zinc), paddy was vacuum-soaked in Fe2+ or Zn2+ solutions (500 ppm) separately for one hour, and continued soaking for another 3.5 h without vacuum. Significantly (P<0.05) higher amounts of Fe2+ and Zn2+ were observed throughout the soaking period, in both short and long grain varieties of rice compared to rice treated without vacuum. To achieve the recommended limits of World Food Program standards for fortified iron (40-48 mg/kg) and zinc (60-72 mg/kg) in rice, soaking was done with different concentrations of Fe2+ or Zn2+ for varying time periods. For both iron and zinc fortifications, hot soaking (70 °C) in 400 ppm solutions under vacuum (- 0.6 bar) during the first hour followed by 2.5 h under atmospheric pressure exhibited the optimum fortification (Fe2+: 46.59±0.37 ppm and Zn2+: 67.24±1.36 ppm) with a greater significance (P < 0.05) compared to the controls (Fe2+: 38.84±0.62 ppm and Zn2+: 52.55±0.55 ppm). This finding was further confirmed by the XRF images, clearly showing a greater fixation of Fe2+ and Zn2+ in the rice grains under vacuum treatment. Moreover, there were no significant (P>0.05) differences among both Fe2+ and Zn2+ contents in fortified rice even after polishing and washing, confirming their greater retention. A seven point hedonic scale showed that the overall acceptability for both iron and zinc fortified rice were significantly (P < 0.05) higher than the parboiled rice without fortificants. With all the drawbacks eliminated, per kilogram cost will be less than US$ 1 for both iron and zinc fortified rice. The new method of rice fortification studied and developed in this research, can be claimed as the best method in comparison to other rice fortification methods currently deployed.

Keywords: fortification, vacuum assisted diffusion, micronutrients, parboiling

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1063 On Consolidated Predictive Model of the Natural History of Breast Cancer Considering Primary Tumor and Secondary Distant Metastases Growth in Patients with Lymph Nodes Metastases

Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This paper is devoted to mathematical modelling of the progression and stages of breast cancer. We propose Consolidated mathematical growth model of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases (CoM-III) as a new research tool. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-III which reflects relations between primary tumor and secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoM-III scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. Firstly, the CoM-III includes exponential tumor growth model as a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations. Secondly, mathematical model corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-III model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; b) make forecast of the period of the distant metastases appearance in patients with lymph nodes metastases; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-III: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases. The CoM-III enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-III describes correctly primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N1-3M0) stages in patients with lymph nodes metastases (N1-3); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, primary tumor, secondary metastases, survival

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