Search results for: suicide trends

Authors: A. Beril Tugrul

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Demand on production and thereby the global need of energy is growing continuously. Each country has different trends on energy demand and supply according to their geopolitical and geographical locations, underground reserves, weather conditions and level of industrialization. Conventional energy resources such as oil, gas and coal –in other words fossil resources- remain dominant on primary energy supply in spite of causing of environmental problems. Energy supply and demand securities are essential within the energy importing and exporting countries. This concept affected all sectors, but especially impressed on political aspects of the countries and also global economic views.

Keywords: energy policy, energy economics, energy strategy, global trends, petro-dollar recycling

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Authors: Tamar Lazariashvili

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The development of agrotourism in Georgia has significant potential. The trend of population growth and demand for agrotourism products makes the interest and importance of the development of this field even more relevant. The article studies the trends in the development of agrotourism in Georgia; SWOT analysis reveals the potential for the development of agrotourism and assesses the perspectives, examines the factors hindering the development of agrotourism, assesses the role of the state in the development of agrotourism. Objectives: The purpose of the study is to determine the development trends of agrotourism in Georgia and to develop recommendations for prospective directions based on the assessment of the field's potential. Methodologies: Research methods are used: analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, comparison, statistical (selection, grouping, observation, trend) and other methods, as well as SWOT analysis. Contributions: A positive trend in the development of agrotourism has been revealed. It is also shown that the demand for agrotourism products is growing. The agro touristic potential of Georgia was assessed and prospective directions for the development of the field have been determined. Conclusions: are drawn on the problems identified in the work and recommendations are proposed on ways to effectively use the potential opportunities of agrotourism and ways of long-term development.

Keywords: agrotourism, agrotourism products, agrotourism potential, development prospects.

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Authors: Pau Rausell-Koster, Jordi Sanjuan-Belda

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The economic crisis of 2008 had a special impact on cultural consumption in Spain. It fell by almost 30% in a few years, and its share of total family spending decreased from 3.19% in 2007 to 2.38% in 2015. In 2017, unlike other indicators, cultural consumption levels were still far from recovering their pre-crisis values. In times of economic difficulties, the satisfaction of primary subsistence needs takes priority over that of social, cultural and experiential needs, among which cultural consumption would mostly be framed. However, its evolution cannot be attributed exclusively to macroeconomic trends. In parallel to these, technological advances mainly related to the Internet have been disseminated in recent years, which have a very marked impact on the consumption patterns of some cultural sectors. Thus, the aim of this study is to define the causes of the decline in cultural consumption in Spain in recent years, and analyse what type of products, territories and population profiles suffered it especially. From the data analysis of the Family Budget Survey, the study seeks to improve the understanding of the determinants of cultural consumption and their behaviour in the face of macroeconomic trends, as well as identify and extract some policy implications regarding to the upcoming crisis caused by COVID-19.

Keywords: consume patterns, cultural consumption, economic crisis, economic trends

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Authors: Shabana Noureen, Zafar Mahmood

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Economies consistently engage in trade across borders and face tariff, non-tariff barriers and other quotas that constitute trade costs. The trade costs imposed by policy barriers on exports are considered an impediment in the export growth rate. This work aims to measure over-year trends in total and bilateral trade costs and their trends in relevance to policy barriers (tariff and non-tariff). The analysis through the micro-founded theoretically based gravity model showed that the total trade costs have a general decreasing trend in the world while in the case of developing countries, the rate by which these trends decline is very low. Bilateral trade cost estimates associated with the policy barriers represent that the non-tariff barriers in a developing country have a major role in sustaining the high trade costs as compared to the tariff barriers. This ultimately leads to a low net declining rate. This work emphasizes that for developing countries the non-tariff barriers are a major factor that renders their exports and to be uncompetitive in the world market.

Keywords: trade costs, policy barriers, tariff barriers, non-tariff barriers, trade policies, export growth

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Authors: Muhammad Tayyab Afzal, Muhammad Arslan, Mirza Muhammad Waqar

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Snow constitutes an important component of the cryosphere, characterized by high temporal and spatial variability. Because of the contribution of snow melt to water availability, snow is an important focus for research on climate change and adaptation. MODIS satellite data have been used to identify spatial-temporal trends in snow cover in the upper Indus basin. For this research MODIS satellite 8 day composite data of medium resolution (250m) have been analysed from 2001-2005.Pixel based supervised classification have been performed and extent of snow have been calculated of all the images. Results show large variation in snow cover between years while an increasing trend from west to east is observed. Temperature data for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) have been analysed for seasonal and annual trends over the period 2001-2005 and calibrated with the results acquired by the research. From the analysis it is concluded that there are indications that regional warming is one of the factor that is affecting the hydrology of the upper Indus basin due to accelerated glacial melting during the simulation period, stream flow in the upper Indus basin can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy. This conclusion is also supported by the research of ICIMOD in which there is an observation that the average annual precipitation over a five year period is less than the observed stream flow and supported by positive temperature trends in all seasons.

Keywords: indus basin, MODIS, remote sensing, snow cover

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Authors: Suzanne L. Stewart, Mikaela D. Gabriel

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Background: Indigenous People face multiple barriers to successful life transitions, including housing, employment, education, and health. Current statistical trends paint devastating life transitions for Indigenous Peoples, but colonization and its intergenerational impacts are typically lacking as the crucial context in which these trends occur. This presentation will illustrate the massive impact of colonization on Indigenous Peoples; its intergenerational transmission, and how it impacts Indigenous clients seeking mental health treatment today. Methods: A qualitative, narrative inquiry methodology was used to honour Indigenous storytelling and knowledge transmission. Indigenous Elders, outreach workers, and homeless clients were interviewed and narratively analyzed for in-depth trends and themes. Impact: This research provides a wealth of in-depth information as to the life transition needs of Indigenous clients, identify the systemic impacts of colonization to the health and wellbeing of Indigenous People, and strategies for mental health treatment.

Keywords: indigenous trauma, indigenous peoples of canada, intergenerational trauma, colonial trauma and treatment

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Authors: Nikolaos Konstantopoulos, Aristeidis Samitas, Vasileiou Evangelos

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The purpose of this study is to examine if the financial trends influence not only the stock markets’ returns, but also their anomalies. We choose to study the day of the week effect (DOW) for the Greek stock market during the Euro period (2002-12), because during the specific period there are not significant structural changes and there are long term financial trends. Moreover, in order to avoid possible methodological counterarguments that usually arise in the literature, we apply several linear (OLS) and nonlinear (GARCH family) models to our sample until we reach to the conclusion that the TGARCH model fits better to our sample than any other. Our results suggest that in the Greek stock market there is a long term predisposition for positive/negative returns depending on the weekday. However, the statistical significance is influenced from the financial trend. This influence may be the reason why there are conflict findings in the literature through the time. Finally, we combine the DOW’s empirical findings from 1985-2012 and we may assume that in the Greek case there is a tendency for long lived turn of the week effect.

Keywords: day of the week effect, GARCH family models, Athens stock exchange, economic growth, crisis

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Authors: Raju Thapa

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Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) are conducting activities in Nepal with the overall objective to strengthen peace, progress and prosperity in the society. Based on the research objectives, this study has tried to trace out the reasons behind massive growth of NGOs and the trends that have shaped the handling and functioning of NGOs in the Kailali district. The outcomes of this research are quite embarrassing for NGOs officials. Based on the findings of this research, NGOs are expected to review their guiding principal, integrity and conduct for the betterment of the society.

Keywords: NGO, trends, increasing, conduct, integrity, guiding principle, legal, governance, human resources, public trust, financial, collaboration, networking

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Authors: Babu Shersad, Partha Banerjee

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Reduction in haemoglobin levels has been implicated to be a cause for reduced exercise tolerance and cardiovascular complications of chronic renal diseases. Trends of hemoglobin levels in patients on haemodialysis could be an indicator of efficacy of hemodialysis and an indicator of quality of life in haemodialysis patients. In the UAE, the rate of growth (of patients on dialysis) is 10 to 15 per cent per year. The primary mode of haemodialysis in the region is based on in-patient hospital-based hemodialysis units. The increase in risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular morbidity as well as mortality in pre-dialysis Chronic Renal Disease has been reported. However, data on the health burden on haemodialysis in standalone dialysis facilities is very scarce. This is mainly due to the paucity of ambulatory centres for haemodialysis in the region. AMSA is the first center to offer standalone dialysis in the UAE and a study over a one year period was performed. Patient data was analyzed using a questionnaire for 45 patients with an average of 2.5 dialysis sessions per week. All patients were on chronic haemodialysis as outpatients. The trends of haemoglobin levels as an independent variable were evaluated. These trends were interpreted in comparison with other parameters of renal function (creatinine, uric acid, blood pressure and ferritin). Trends indicate an increase in hemoglobin levels with increased supplementation of iron and erythropoietin over time. The adequacy of hemodialysis shows improvement concomitantly. This, in turn, correlates with better patient outcomes and has a direct impact on morbidity and mortality. This study is a pilot study and further studies are indicated so that objective parameters can be studied and validated for hemodialysis in the region.

Keywords: haemodialysis, haemoglobin in haemodialysis, haemodialysis parameters, erythropoietic agents in haemodialysis

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Authors: J. C. M. Santos, J. C. A. Sousa, A. J. Rubio, L. S. Soletti, F. Gasparotto, N. U. Yamaguchi

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Magnetic graphene has received widespread attention for their capability of water and wastewater treatment, which has been attracted many researchers in this field. A bibliometric analysis based on the Web of Science database was employed to analyze the global scientific outputs of magnetic graphene for water treatment until the present time (2012 to 2017), to improve the understanding of the research trends. The publication year, place of publication, institutes, funding agencies, journals, most cited articles, distribution outputs in thematic categories and applications were analyzed. Three major aspects analyzed including type of pollutant, treatment process and composite composition have further contributed to revealing the research trends. The most relevant research aspects of the main technologies using magnetic graphene for water treatment were summarized in this paper. The results showed that research on magnetic graphene for water treatment goes through a period of decline that might be related to a saturated field and a lack of bibliometric studies. Thus, the result of the present work will lead researchers to establish future directions in further studies using magnetic graphene for water treatment.

Keywords: composite, graphene oxide, nanomaterials, scientometrics

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Authors: Seden Demirtaş, Feyza Tantekin Erden

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The importance of research in early childhood education is growing all around the world. This study aims to investigate research trends in graduate theses written in Turkey in the area of early childhood education. Descriptive, contextual and methodological aspects of graduate theses were analyzed to investigate the trends. A sample of the study consisted of 1000 graduate theses (n= 1000) including both MS theses and Ph.D. dissertations. Theses and dissertations were obtained from the thesis database of Council of Higher Education (CoHE). An investigation form was developed by the researcher to analyze graduate theses. The investigation forms validated by expert opinion from early childhood education department. To enhance the reliability of the investigation form, inter-coder agreement was measured by Cohen’s Kappa value (.86). Data were gathered via using the investigation form, and content analysis method was used to analyze the data. Results of the analysis were presented by descriptive statistics and frequency tables. Analysis of the study is on-going and preliminary results of the study show that master theses related to early childhood education have started to be written in 1986, and the number of the theses has increased gradually. In most of the studies, sample group consisted of children especially in between 5-6 age group. Child development, activities (applied in daily curriculum of preschools) and teaching methods are the mostly examined concepts in graduate theses. Qualitative and quantitative research methods were referred equally by researchers in these theses.

Keywords: content analysis, early childhood education, graduate thesis, research trends

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Authors: Pager Mansaram Pandit

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The present paper aims to changing trends of population in Nashik district. The spatial variation of changing trends of population from 1901 to 2011. Nasik, lying between 19° 33’ and 20° 53’ north latitude and 73° 16’ and 75° 16’, with an area of 15530 Sq. K.M.North South length is 120 km. East West length is 200 km. Nashik has a population of 6,109,052 of which 3,164,261 are males and 2,944,791 and females. Average literacy rate of Nashik district in 2011 was 82.91 compared to 80.96 in 2001. In 1901 the density was 52 and in 2011 the density was 393 per sq. km. The progressive growth rate from 1901 to 2012 was 11.25 to 642.22 percent, respectively. The population trend is calculated with the help of time series. In 1901 population was 45.44% more and less in 1941 i.e. -13.86. From 1921 to 1981 the population was below the population trend but after 1991 population it gradually increased. The average rainfall it receives is 1034 mm. In the present times, because of advances in good climate, industrialization, development of road, University level educational facilities, religious importance, cargo services, good quality of grapes, pomegranates and onions, more and more people are being attracted towards Nashik districts. Another cause for the increase in the population is the main attraction of Ramkund, Muktidham Temple, Kalaram Temple, Coin Museum, and Trimbakeshwar.

Keywords: density, growth, population, population trend

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Authors: Sofia Barbosa, Mariana Pinto, José António Almeida, Edgar Carvalho, Catarina Diamantino

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The aim of this work was to test a methodology able to generate spatial-temporal maps that can synthesize simultaneously the trends of distinct hydrochemical indicators in an old radium-uranium tailings dam deposit. Multidimensionality reduction derived from principal component analysis and subsequent data aggregation derived from clustering analysis allow to identify distinct hydrochemical behavioural profiles and to generate synthetic evolutionary hydrochemical maps.

Keywords: Contamination plume migration, K-means of PCA scores, groundwater and mine water monitoring, spatial-temporal hydrochemical trends

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Authors: David Yartel

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Drawing on the current state of software engineering and information technology in Ghana, the study documents its significant contribution to the development of Ghanaian industries. The study focuses on the application of modern trends in technology and the barriers faced in the area of software engineering and information technology. A thorough analysis of a dozen of interviews with stakeholders in software engineering and information technology via interviews reveals how modern trends in software engineering pose challenges to the industry in Ghana. Results show that to meet the expectation of modern software engineering and information technology trends, stakeholders must have skilled professionals, adequate infrastructure, and enhanced support for technology startups. Again, individuals should be encouraged to pursue a career in software engineering and information technology, as it has the propensity to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of work-related activities. This study recommends that stakeholders in software engineering and technology industries should invest enough in training more professionals by collaborating with international institutions well-versed in the area by organizing frequent training and seminars. The government should also provide funding opportunities for small businesses in the technology sector to drive creativity and development in order to bring about growth and development.

Keywords: software engineering, information technology, Ghana, development

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Authors: Juan Sepúlveda

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Energy is a fundamental component in sustainability, the access and use of this resource is related with economic growth, social improvements, and environmental impacts. In this sense, energy efficiency has been studied as a factor that enhances the positive impacts of energy in communities; however, the implementation of efficiency requires strong policy and strategies that usually rely on individual measures focused in independent dimensions. In this paper, the problem of energy efficiency as a multi-objective problem is studied, using scientometric analysis to discover trends and patterns that allow to identify the main variables and study approximations related with a further development of models to integrate energy efficiency and MCA into policy making for small communities.

Keywords: energy efficiency, MCA, scientometric, trends

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Authors: Nino Grigolaia

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Introduction. The paper discusses the role of the manufacturing industry in the Georgian economy, analyzes the current trends in the development of the manufacturing industry, reveals its impact on the Georgian economy, and justifies the essential importance of industrial transformation for the future development of the Georgian economy. Objectives. The main objective of research is to study development trends of the manufacturing industry of Georgia and estimate the industrial policy in Georgia. Methodology. The paper uses methods of induction, deduction, analysis, synthesis, analogy, correlation, and statistical observation. A qualitative study was conducted based on a survey of industry experts and entrepreneurs in order to identify the factors hindering and contributing to the manufacturing industry. Conclusions. The research reveals that the development of the manufacturing industry and the formation of industrial policy are of special importance for the further growth and development of the Georgian economy. Based on the research, the factors promoting and hindering the development of the manufacturing industry are identified. The need to increase foreign direct investment in the industrial sector are highlighted. Recommendations for the development of the country's manufacturing industry are developed, taking into account the competitive advantages and international experience of Georgia.

Keywords: manufacturing, industrial policy, contributing factor, hindering factor

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Authors: Maria Ines Azambuja

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Graphic displays of Age-Period-Cohort (APC) mortality trends generally uses data aggregated within 5 or 10-year intervals. Technology allows one to increase the amount of processed data. Displaying occurrences by 1-year intervals is a logic first step in the direction of attaining higher quality landscapes of variations in temporal occurrences. Method: 1) Comparison of UK mortality trends plotted by 10-, 5- and 1-year intervals; 2) Comparison of UK and US mortality trends (period X age and cohort X age) displayed by 1-year intervals. Source: Mortality data (period, 1x1, males, 1933-1912) uploaded from the Human Mortality Database to Excel files, where Period X Age and Cohort X Age graphics were produced. The choice of transforming age-specific trends from calendar to birth-cohort years (cohort = period – age) (instead of using cohort 1x1 data available at the HMD resource) was taken to facilitate the comparison of age-specific trends when looking across calendar-years and birth-cohorts. Yearly live births, males, 1933 to 1912 (UK) were uploaded from the HFD. Influenza references are from the literature. Results: 1) The use of 1-year intervals unveiled previously unsuspected period, cohort and interacting period x cohort effects upon all-causes mortality. 2) The UK and US figures showed variations associated with particular calendar years (1936, 1940, 1951, 1957-68, 72) and, most surprisingly, with particular birth-cohorts (1889-90 in the US, and 1900, 1918-19, 1940-41 and 1946-47, in both countries. Also, the figures showed ups and downs in age-specific trends initiated at particular birth-cohorts (1900, 1918-19 and 1947-48) or a particular calendar-year (1968, 1972, 1977-78 in the US), variations at times restricted to just a range of ages (cohort x period interacting effects). Importantly, most of the identified “scars” (period and cohort) correlates with the record of occurrences of Influenza A epidemics since the late 19th Century. Conclusions: The use of 1-year intervals to describe APC mortality trends both increases the amount of information available, thus enhancing the opportunities for patterns’ recognition, and increases our capability of interpreting those patterns by describing trends across smaller intervals of time (period or birth-cohort). The US and the UK mortality landscapes share many but not all 'scars' and distortions suggested here to be associated with influenza epidemics. Different size-effects of wars are evident, both in mortality and in fertility. But it would also be realistic to suppose that the preponderant influenza A viruses circulating in UK and US at the beginning of the 20th Century might be different and the difference to have intergenerational long-term consequences. Compared with the live births trend (UK data), birth-cohort scars clearly depend on birth-cohort sizes relatives to neighbor ones, which, if causally associated with influenza, would result from influenza-related fetal outcomes/selection. Fetal selection could introduce continuing modifications on population patterns of immune-inflammatory phenotypes that might give rise to 'epidemic constitutions' favoring the occurrence of particular diseases. Comparative analysis of mortality landscapes may help us to straight our record of past circulation of Influenza viruses and document associations between influenza recycling and fertility changes.

Keywords: age-period-cohort trends, epidemic constitution, fertility, influenza, mortality

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Authors: Renee Fabian, Jordan Davidson

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Current research on non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) provides ample insights on best practices for caregivers and clinicians to address and reduce NSSI behavior among adolescents. However, the efficacy of evidenced-based NSSI interventions and their delivery from the perspective of adolescent patients does not receive significant attention, creating a gap between the efficacy of research-based NSSI interventions and adolescent perceptions of NSSI treatment and adolescent willingness to engage in NSSI interventions. To address the gap between practice and patient perspectives and inform more effective treatment outcomes, the current survey aims to identify major patient-reported adverse reactions to NSSI disclosures from caregivers, treating mental health clinicians, and medical professionals using a mixed methods survey of 2,500 people with a history of NSSI completed by editors at a consumer-facing health publication. Based on the analyzed results of the survey, a majority of adolescents with a history of NSSI found parents and caregivers ineffective at empathetically addressing NSSI, and a significant number of participants reported at least one treating mental health professional inadequately responded to NSSI behaviors, in addition to other findings of adverse reactions to NSSI disclosures that serve as a barrier to treatment. NSSI is a significant risk factor for future suicide attempts. Addressing patient-reported adverse reactions to NSSI disclosures in the adolescent population can remove barriers to the effectiveness of caregiver and clinician NSSI interventions and reduce the risk of NSSI-related harm and lower the risk of future suicide attempts or completions.

Keywords: adolescent self-injury, non-suicidal self-injury, patient perspectives, self-harm interventions

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

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Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Bhogendra Mishra, Andy Nelson, Mirco Boschetti, Lorenzo Busetto, Alice Laborte

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Rice is grown on over 100 million hectares in almost every country of Asia. It is the most important staple crop for food security and has high economic and cultural importance in Asian societies. The combination of genetic diversity and management options, coupled with the large geographic extent means that there is a large variation in seasonality (when it is grown) and cropping intensity (how often it is grown per year on the same plot of land), even over relatively small distances. Seasonality and intensity can and do change over time depending on climatic, environmental and economic factors. Detecting where and when these changes happen can provide information to better understand trends in regional and even global rice production. Remote sensing offers a unique opportunity to estimate these trends. We apply the recently published PhenoRice algorithm to 14 years of moderate resolution remote sensing (MODIS) data (utilizing 250m resolution 16 day composites from Terra and Aqua) to estimate seasonality and cropping intensity per year and changes over time. We compare the results to the surveyed data collected by International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). The study results in a unique and validated dataset on the extent and change of extent, the seasonality and change in seasonality and the cropping intensity and change in cropping intensity between 2003 and 2016 for the Philippines. Observed trends and their implications for food security and trade policies are also discussed.

Keywords: rice, cropping intensity, moderate resolution remote sensing (MODIS), phenology, seasonality

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Authors: Siti Indati Mustapa, Hussain Ali Bekhet

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Global CO2 emission and increasing fuel consumption to meet energy demand requirement has become a threat in recent decades. Effort to reduce the CO2 emission is now a matter of priority in most countries of the world including Malaysia. Transportation has been identified as the most intensive sector of carbon-based fuels and achievement of the voluntary target to meet 40% carbon intensity reduction set at the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) means that the emission from the transport sector must be reduced accordingly. This posed a great challenge to Malaysia and effort has to be made to embrace suitable and appropriate energy policy for sustainable energy and emission reduction of this sector. The focus of this paper is to analyse the trends of Malaysia’s energy consumption and emission of four different transport sub-sectors (road, rail, aviation and maritime). Underlying factors influencing the growth of energy consumption and emission trends are discussed. Besides, technology status towards energy efficiency in transportation sub-sectors is presented. By reviewing the existing policies and trends of energy used, the paper highlights prospective policy options towards achieving emission reduction in the transportation sector.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, transportation sector, fuel consumption, energy policy, Malaysia

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Authors: Sandeep J. Kumar

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Urbanisation is considered as the primary driver of land use and land cover change that has direct link to population and economic growth. In India, as well as in other developing countries, cities are urbanizing at an alarming rate. This unprecedented and uncontrolled urbanisation can result in urban sprawl. Due to a number of factors, urban sprawl is recognised to be a result of poor planning, inadequate policies, and poor governance. Urban sprawl may be seen as posing a threat to the development of sustainable cities. Hence, it is very essential to manage this. Planning for predicted future growth is critical to avoid the negative effects of urban growth at the local and regional levels. Thiruvananthapuram being the capital city of Kerala is a city of economic success, challenges, and opportunities. Urbanization trends in the city have paved way for Urban Sprawl. This thesis aims to formulate a framework to combat the emerging urban sprawl in the city of Thiruvananthapuram. For that, the first step was to quantify trends of urban growth in Thiruvananthapuram city using Geographical Information System(GIS) and remote sensing techniques. The technique and results obtained in the study are extremely valuable in analysing the land use changes. Secondly, these change in the trends were analysed through some of the critical factors that helped the study to understand the underlying issues of the existing city structure that has resulted in urban sprawl. Anticipating development trends can modify the current order. This can be productively resolved using regional and municipal planning and management strategies. Hence efficient strategies to curb the sprawl in Thiruvananthapuram city have been formulated in this study that can be considered as recommendations for future planning.

Keywords: urbanisation, urban sprawl, geographical information system(GIS), thiruvananthapuram

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Authors: Kristina Sutiene, Lina Dapkute

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The paper investigates the current demographic trends that exert the sustainability of pension systems in most EU regions. Several drivers usually compose the demographic challenge, coming from the structure and trends of population in the country. As the case of research, three main variables of demographic risk in Lithuania have been singled out and have been used in making up the analysis. Over the last two decades, the country has presented a peculiar demographic situation characterized by pessimistic fertility trends, negative net migration rate and rising life expectancy that make the significant changes in labor-age population. This study, therefore, sets out to assess the relative impact of these risk factors both individually and in aggregate, while assuming economic trends to evolve historically. The evidence is presented using data of pension funds that operate in Lithuania and are financed by defined-contribution plans. To achieve this goal, the discrete-time pension fund’s value model is developed that reflects main operational modalities: contribution income from current participants and new entrants, pension disbursement and administrative expenses; it also fluctuates based on returns from investment activity. Age-structured Leslie population dynamics model has been integrated into the main model to describe the dynamics of fertility, migration and mortality rates upon age. Validation has concluded that Leslie model adequately fits the current population trends in Lithuania. The elasticity of pension system is examined using Loimaranta efficiency as a measure for comparison of plausible long-term developments of demographic risks. With respect to the research question, it was found that demographic risks have different levels of influence on future value of aggregated pension funds: The fertility rates have the highest importance, while mortality rates give only a minor impact. Further studies regarding the role of trying out different economic scenarios in the integrated model would be worthwhile.

Keywords: asset liability modelling, Leslie model, pension funds, population dynamics

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Authors: Kwaku Damoah

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The agricultural sector is characterized by continuous transformation, driven by factors such as demographic shifts, evolving consumer preferences, climate change, and migration trends. This dynamic environment presents complex challenges for key stakeholders including farmers, governments, and investors, who must navigate these changes to achieve optimal investment returns. To effectively predict market trends and uncover promising investment opportunities, a systematic, data-driven approach is essential. This paper introduces the Structural Evolution Index (SEI), a machine learning-based methodology. SEI is specifically designed to analyse long-term trends and forecast the potential of emerging agricultural products for investment. Versatile in application, it evaluates various agricultural metrics such as production, yield, trade, land use, and consumption, providing a comprehensive view of the evolution within agricultural markets. By harnessing data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAOSTAT), this study demonstrates the SEI's capabilities through Comparative Exploratory Analysis and evaluation of international trade in agricultural products, focusing on Malaysia and Singapore. The SEI methodology reveals intricate patterns and transitions within the agricultural sector, enabling stakeholders to strategically identify and capitalize on emerging markets. This predictive framework is a powerful tool for decision-makers, offering crucial insights that help anticipate market shifts and align investments with anticipated returns.

Keywords: agricultural investment, algorithm, comparative exploratory analytics, machine learning, market trends, predictive analytics, structural evolution index

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Authors: Alcino Panguana

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All Portuguese-speaking African countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region that has high infant mortality rates, being responsible for 49.6% of deaths in Portuguese-speaking African countries, Angola has levels of infant mortality among children, where 2017, 156 children who died before reaching 1 year of life in 1000 live births. Although there is an increase in studies that document trends and specific causes of infant mortality in each country, historical-comparative studies of infant mortality among these countries remain rare. Understanding the trend of this indicator is important for policymakers and planners in order to improve access to successful child survival operations. Lusophone Africa continues with high infant mortality rates in the order of 64 deaths per thousand births. Assuming heterogeneities that can characterize these countries, raise an analysis investigated indicator at the country level to understand the pattern and historical trend of infant mortality within Lusophone Africa from the year 2021. The result is to understand the levels and evolution of infant mortality in Portuguese-speaking African countries.

Keywords: child mortality, levels, trends, lusophone African countries

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Authors: Nidesh Sapkota, Garima Pudasaini, Dikshya Agrawal, Binav Baral, Umesh Bhagat, Dharanidhar Baral

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Background: Medical and Dental students are vulnerable to higher levels of Psychological distress than other age matched peers. Many studies reveals that there is high prevalence of psychoactive substance use and Psychiatric co-morbidities among them. Objectives: -To study the prevalence of substance use among medical and dental students of a Medical University. -To study the prevalence of depression and anxiety in medical and dental students of a Medical University. Materials and Method: A cross-sectional descriptive study in which simple random sampling was done. Semi-structured questionnaire, AUDIT for alcohol use, Fagerstrom test for Nicotine dependence, Cannabis screening test (CAST), Beck’s Depression Inventory (BDI), Beck’s Anxiety Inventory (BAI) were used for the assessment. Results: Total sample size was 588 in which the mean age of participants was 22±2years. Among them the prevalence of alcohol users was 47.75%(281) in which 32%(90) were harmful users. Among 19.55%(115) nicotine users 56.5%(65), 37.4%(43), 6.1%(7) had low, low to moderate and moderate dependence respectively. The prevalence of cannabis users was 9%(53) with 45.3%(24), 18.9%(10) having low and high addiction respectively. Depressive symptoms were recorded in 25.3%(149) out of which 12.6%(74), 6.5%(38), 5.3%(31), 0.5%(3), 0.5%(3) had mild, borderline, moderate, severe and extreme depressive symptoms respectively. Similarly anxiety was recorded among 7.8%(46) students with 42 having moderate and 4 having severe anxiety symptoms. Among them 6.3%(37) had suicidal thoughts and 4(0.7%) of them had suicide attempt in last one year. Statistically significant association was noted with harmful alcohol users, Depression and suicidal attempts. Similar association was noted between Depression and suicide with moderate use of nicotine. Conclusion: There is high prevalence of Psychoactive substance use and psychiatric co-morbidities noted in the studies sample. Statistically significant association was noted with Psychiatric co-morbidities and substance use.

Keywords: alcohol, cannabis, dependence, depression, medical students

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Authors: Bright E. Owusu, Nittaya McNeil

Abstract:

Rainfall is one of the most essential quantities in meteorology and hydrology. It has important impacts on people’s daily life and excess or inadequate of it could bring tremendous losses in economy and cause fatalities. Population increase around the globe tends to have a corresponding increase in settlement and industrialization. Some countries are affected by flood and drought occasionally due to climate change, which disrupt most of the daily activities. Knowledge of trends in spatial and temporal rainfall variability and their physical explanations would be beneficial in climate change assessment and to determine erosivity. This study describes the spatial-temporal variability of daily rainfall in Australia and their corresponding long-term trend during 1950-2013. The spatial patterns were investigated by using exploratory factor analysis and the long term trend in rainfall time series were determined by linear regression, Mann-Kendall rank statistics and the Sen’s slope test. The exploratory factor analysis explained most of the variations in the data and grouped Australia into eight distinct rainfall regions with different rainfall patterns. Significant increasing trends in annual rainfall were observed in the northern regions of Australia. However, the northeastern part was the wettest of all the eight rainfall regions.

Keywords: climate change, explanatory factor analysis, Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope test, rainfall.

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Dinesha Siriwardhane, Indralal De Silva, Sampath Amaratunge

Abstract:

Objective of this study is to explore the recent trends, patterns and the structural changes in the labour migration from Sri Lanka to Middle East countries and to discuss the possible impacts of those changes on the remittance flow. Study uses secondary data published by Sri Lanka Bureau of Foreign Employment and Central Bank. Thematic analysis of the secondary data revealed that the migration for labour has increased rapidly during past decades. Parallel with that the gender and the skill composition of the migration flow has been changing. Similarly, the destinations for male migration have changed over the period. These show positive implications on the international remittance receipts to the country.

Keywords: migration, middle east, Sri Lanka, social sciences

Procedia PDF Downloads 367

Authors: Apkar Salatian

Abstract:

To relieve the burden of reasoning on a point to point basis, in many domains there is a need to reduce large and noisy data sets into trends for qualitative reasoning. In this paper we propose and describe a new architectural design pattern called REDUCER for reducing large and noisy data sets that can be tailored for particular situations. REDUCER consists of 2 consecutive processes: Filter which takes the original data and removes outliers, inconsistencies or noise; and Compression which takes the filtered data and derives trends in the data. In this seminal article, we also show how REDUCER has successfully been applied to 3 different case studies.

Keywords: design pattern, filtering, compression, architectural design

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: Lakmali Anthony, Madeline Gillies

Abstract:

Background: Incisional and ventral hernias are highly prevalent, with primary ventral hernias occurring in approximately 20% of adults and incisional hernias developing in up to 30% of midline abdominal incisions. Recent data from the United States have shown an increasing incidence of elective incisional and ventral hernia repair (IVHR) and emergency repair of complicated hernias. This study examines Australian population trends in IVHR over a two-decade study period. Methods: This retrospective study was performed using procedure data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics captured between 2000 and 2021 to calculate incidence rates per 100,000 population by age and sex for selected subcategories of IVHR operations. Trends over time were evaluated using simple linear regression. Results: There were 809,308 IVHR operations performed in Australia during the study period. The cumulative incidence adjusted for the population was 182 per 100,000; this increased by 9.578 per year during the study period (95% CI = 8.431- 10.726, p<.001). IVHR for primary umbilical hernias experienced the most significant increase in population-adjusted incidence, 1.177 per year. (95% CI = 0.654- 1.701, p<.001). Emergency IVHR for incarcerated, obstructed, and strangulated hernias increased by 0.576 per year (95% CI = 0.510 -0.642, p<.001). Only 20.2% of IVHR procedures were performed as day surgery. Conclusions: Australia has seen a significant increase in IVHR operations performed in the last 20 years, particularly those for primary ventral hernias. IVHR for hernias complicated by incarceration, obstruction, and strangulation also increased significantly. The proportion of IVHR operations performed as day surgery is well below the target set by the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons. With the increasing incidence of IVHR operations and an increasing proportion of these being emergent, elective IVHR should be performed as day surgery when it is safe.

Keywords: ventral, incisional, hernia, trends

Procedia PDF Downloads 44