Search results for: southern Tunisian Atlas

Authors: Lamia Bouzgarrou, Irtyah Merchaoui, Amira Omrane, Salma Kammoun, Amine Daafa, Neila Chaari

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Backgrounds: Currently, low back pain (LBP) is one of the most prevalent public health problems, which caused severe morbidity among a large portion of the adult population. It is also associated with heavy direct and indirect costs, in particular, related to absenteeism and early retirement. Health care workers are one of most occupational groups concerned by LBP, especially because of biomechanical and psycho-organizational risk factors. Our current study aims to investigate risk factors associated with chronic low back pain among Tunisian caregivers in university-hospitals. Methods: Cross-sectional study conducted over a period of 14 months, with a representative sample of caregivers, matched according to age, sex and work department, in two university-hospitals in Tunisia. Data collection included items related to socio-professional characteristics, the evaluation of the working capacity index (WAI), the occupational stress (Karazek job strain questionnaire); the quality of life (SF12), the musculoskeletal disorders Nordic questionnaire, and the examination of the spine flexibility (distance finger-ground, sit-stand maneuver and equilibrium test). Results: Totally, 293 caregivers were included with a mean age equal to 42.64 ± 11.65 years. A body mass index (BMI) exceeding 30, was noted in 20.82% of cases. Moreover, no regular physical activity was practiced in 51.9% of cases. In contrast, domestic activity equal or exceeding 20 hours per week, was reported by 38.22%. Job strain was noted in 19.79 % of cases and the work capacity was 'low' to 'average' among 27.64% of subjects. During the 12 months previous to the investigation, 65% of caregivers complained of LBP, with pain rated as 'severe' or 'extremely severe' in 54.4% of cases and with a frequency of discomfort exceeding one episode per week in 58.52% of cases. During physical examination, the mean distance finger-ground was 7.10 ± 7.5cm. Caregivers assigned to 'high workload' services had the highest prevalence of LBP (77.4%) compared to other categories of hospital services, with no statistically significant relationship (P = 0.125). LBP prevalence was statistically correlated with female gender (p = 0.01) and impaired work capacity (p < 10⁻³). Moreover, the increase of the distance finger-ground was statistically associated with LBP (p = 0.05), advanced age (p < 10⁻³), professional seniority (p < 10⁻³) and the BMI ≥ 25 (p = 0.001). Furthermore, others physical tests of spine flexibility were underperformed among LBP suffering workers with a statistically significant difference (sit-stand maneuver (p = 0.03); equilibrium test (p = 0.01)). According to the multivariate analysis, only the domestic activity exceeding 20H/week, the degraded quality of physical life, and the presence of neck pain were significantly corelated to LBP. The final model explains 36.7% of the variability of this complaint. Conclusion: Our results highlighted the elevate prevalence of LBP among caregivers in Tunisian public hospital and identified both professional and individual predisposing factors. The preliminary analysis supports the necessity of a multidimensional approach to prevent this critical occupational and public health problem. The preventive strategy should be based both on the improvement of working conditions, and also on lifestyle modifications, and reinforcement of healthy behaviors in these active populations.

Keywords: health care workers, low back pain, prevention, risk factor

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Authors: Idahosa Osagie Ojo

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The paper analyses the right hand in indigenous African economic thought using the Benin people of Southern Nigeria as a case study. The Benin people esteemed handiwork and industriousness and embodied it with the right hand, which was regarded as the ultimate bringer of material wellbeing and societal status. The paper aims to contribute to African economic thought by analysing the conception of the hand in pre-colonial Benin society as the source of material wherewithal and to reveal how the hand was epitomised as the ultimate purveyor of economic providence and class status. The study adopts the historical method, and the interpretive design was used. Primary and secondary sources were utilised, and the findings confirm that the conception of the hand as the giver of material wellbeing was calculatingly done to recompense an industrious and productive lifestyle worthy of accolades and emulations. Findings also show that the people of Benin thought that the right hand is the ultimate bringer of material prosperity and therefore placed tremendous value on it up to the point of veneration. The paper also reveals that the Benin people thought that the fruits of one’s labour outvalued other possessions like an inheritance. The paper also shows that the Benin economic thought, on the hand, as signifying productiveness, intensely encouraged productivity and disdained indolence in the society.

Keywords: Benin, economic thought, hand, industriousness

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Authors: Ruchirek Ratchaburi, W. Kevin. Hicks, Christopher S. Malley, Lisa D. Emberson

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Air pollution problems in Thailand have improved over the last few decades, but in some areas, concentrations of coarse particulate matter (PM₁₀) are above health and regulatory guidelines. It is, therefore, useful to investigate how PM₁₀ varies across Thailand, what conditions cause this variation, and how could PM₁₀ concentrations be reduced. This research uses data collected by the Thailand Pollution Control Department (PCD) from 17 monitoring sites, located across 12 provinces, and obtained between 2011 and 2015 to assess PM₁₀ concentrations and the conditions that lead to different levels of pollution. This is achieved through exploration of air mass pathways using trajectory analysis, used in conjunction with the monitoring data, to understand the contribution of different months, an hour of the day and source regions to annual PM₁₀ concentrations in Thailand. A focus is placed on locations that exceed the national standard for the protection of human health. The analysis shows how this approach can be used to explore the influence of biomass burning on annual average PM₁₀ concentration and the difference in air pollution conditions between Northern and Southern Thailand. The results demonstrate the substantial contribution that open biomass burning from agriculture and forest fires in Thailand and neighboring countries make annual average PM₁₀ concentrations. The analysis of PM₁₀ measurements at monitoring sites in Northern Thailand show that in general, high concentrations tend to occur in March and that these particularly high monthly concentrations make a substantial contribution to the overall annual average concentration. In 2011, a > 75% reduction in the extent of biomass burning in Northern Thailand and in neighboring countries resulted in a substantial reduction not only in the magnitude and frequency of peak PM₁₀ concentrations but also in annual average PM₁₀ concentrations at sites across Northern Thailand. In Southern Thailand, the annual average PM₁₀ concentrations for individual years between 2011 and 2015 did not exceed the human health standard at any site. The highest peak concentrations in Southern Thailand were much lower than for Northern Thailand for all sites. The peak concentrations at sites in Southern Thailand generally occurred between June and October and were associated with air mass back trajectories that spent a substantial proportion of time over the sea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand prior to arrival at the monitoring sites. The results show that emissions reductions from biomass burning and forest fires require action on national and international scales, in both Thailand and neighboring countries, such action could contribute to ensuring compliance with Thailand air quality standards.

Keywords: annual average concentration, long-range transport, open biomass burning, particulate matter

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Authors: Aschenaki Zerihun Kea, Bernt Lindtjorn, Achamyelesh Gebretsadik, Sven Gudmund Hinderaker

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Introduction: Maternal mortality studies conducted at the national level do not provide the information needed for planning and monitoring health programs at lower administrative levels. The aim of this study was to measure maternal mortality, identify risk factors and district-level variations in Sidama National Regional State, southern Ethiopia. Methods: A cross sectional population-based survey was carried out in households where women reported pregnancy and birth outcomes in the past five years. The study was conducted in the Sidama National Regional State, southern Ethiopia, from July 2019 to May 2020. Multi-stage cluster sampling technique was employed. The outcome variable of the study was maternal mortality. Complex sample logistic regression analysis was applied to assess variables independently associated with maternal mortality. Results: We registered 10602 live births (LB) and 48 maternal deaths, yielding an overall maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 419; 95% CI: 260-577 per 100,000 LB. Aroresa district had the highest MMR with 1142 (95% CI: 693-1591) per 100,000 LB. Leading causes of death were haemorrhage 21 (41%) and eclampsia 10 (27%). Thirty (59%) mothers died during labour, or within 24 hours after delivery, 25 (47%) died at home and 17 (38%) at a health facility. Mothers who did not have formal education had a higher risk of maternal death (AOR: 4.4; 95% CI: 1.7 – 11.0). The risk of maternal death was higher in districts with a low midwife-to-population ratio (AOR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.0-8.9). Conclusion: The high maternal mortality with district-level variations in Sidama Region highlights the importance of improving obstetric care and employing targeted interventions in areas with high mortality rates. Due attention should be given to improving access to female education. Additional midwives have to be trained and deployed to improve maternal health services and consequently save the lives of mothers.

Keywords: maternal mortality variation, maternal death, Sidama, Ethiopia

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Authors: A. Bandyopadhyay

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Vedic philosophy is one of the oldest existing philosophies of the world. Started around 6500 BC, in Western Indian subcontinent, the Indus valley Civilizations developed a theology which, gradually developed into a well-established philosophy of beliefs, popularly known as ‘Hindu religion’. In Vedic theology, the abstract concept of God was formulated mostly by close observation of the dynamicity and the recurrence of natural and universal phenomena. Through the ages, the philosophy of this theology went through various discursions, debates, and questionings and the abstract concept of God was, in time, formalized into more representational forms by the means of various signs and symbols. Often, these symbols were used in more subtle ways in the construction of “sacred” sculptures and structures. Apparently, two different philosophies were developed from the Vedic philosophy and these two philosophies are mostly seen in the northern part and southern part of the Indian subcontinent. This paper tries to summarize the complex philosophical treaties of Hinduism of northern and southern India and seeks to understand the meanings of the various signs and symbolisms that were incorporated in the architecture of Hindu temples, including the names given to various parts of the temples. The Hindu temples are not only places of worship or ‘houses of Gods’ like the Greek and Roman temples but are also structures that symbolize the dynamicity and also spiritual upliftment of human beings.

Keywords: Hindu, philosophy, temple, Vedic

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Authors: Hiba Dakroub, Danilo Russo, Luca Cistrone, Francesco Serra, Giovanna Fusco, Esterina De Carlo, Maria Grazia Amoroso

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The question of the origin of SARS-CoV-2 and the cycle of transmission between humans and animals is still unanswered. One serious concern associated with the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is that the virus might spill back from humans to wildlife, which would render some animal species reservoirs of the human virus. The aim of the present study is to monitor the potential risk of SARS-CoV-2 reverse infection from humans to bats, by performing bat surveillance from different sites in Central-Southern Italy. We collected 240 droppings or saliva from 129 bats and tested them using specific and general primers of SARS-COV-2 and coronaviruses respectively. All samples, including 127 nasal swabs and 113 fecal droppings resulted negative for SARS-COV-2, and these results were confirmed by testing the samples with the Droplet Digital PCR. Also, an end-point RT-PCR was performed and no sample showed specific bands. The absence of SARS-CoV-2 in the bats we surveyed is a first step towards a better understanding of reverse transmission to bats of this virus. We hope our first contribution will encourage the establishment of systematic surveillance of wildlife, and specifically bats, to help prevent reverse zoonotic episodes that would jeopardize human health as well as biodiversity conservation and management.

Keywords: coronaviruses, bats, zoonotic viruses, spillback, SARS-CoV-2

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Authors: Maali Kachouri, Anis Jarboui

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We focus on the causal relationship between governance and information transparency as well as interrelation among the various governance mechanisms. This paper employs a simultaneous equations approach to show this relationship in the Tunisian context. Based on an 8-year dataset, our sample covers 28 listed companies over 2006-2013. Our findings suggest that internal and external governance mechanisms are interdependent. Moreover, in order to analyze the causal effect between information transparency and governance mechanisms, we found evidence that information transparency tends to increase good corporate governance practices.

Keywords: simultaneous equations approach, transparency, causal relationship, corporate governance

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Authors: Mohamed Bagues, Ikbel Souli, Feiza Boussora, Kamel Nagaz

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In southern Tunisia, two local barley accessions CV. Ardhaoui; 'Bengardeni' and 'Karkeni' were cultivated in the field under deficit drip irrigation with saline water. Three treatments were used: control or full irrigation T0 (100%ETc) and stressed T1 (75%ETc), T2 (50%ETc). Proline and soluble sugars contents increase significantly under drought between accessions compared to control and varies between growth stages. Moreover, the increasing of Ca2+ concentration enhances the absorption of Na+ ion, consequently K+/Na+ decrease significantly between accessions, these results suggest that a high tolerance of Bengardeni accession to drought stress. Therefore, drought tolerance indices (STI, SSI, MP, GMP, YSI and TOL) were used to identify high yielding and drought tolerant between accessions. MP explained the variation of GYi. GMP and STI explained the variation of GYs. The high values of MP, STI and GMP were associated with higher yielding accession. Higher TOL value is associated with significant grain yield reduction in stressed environment suggesting higher stress responses of accessions. Significant positive correlations between MP, STI and GMP and negative between YSI and SSI. MP, STI, GMP and YSI, TOL, SSI are not correlated with each other.

Keywords: drought, proline, soluble sugars, minerals, yield, drought tolerance indices, barley

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Authors: Margaret K. Spoo-Chupka

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The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWDSC) manages surface water reservoirs that are a source of drinking water for more than 19 million people in Southern California. These reservoirs experience periodic planktonic cyanobacteria blooms that can impact water quality. MWDSC imports water from two sources – the Colorado River (CR) and the State Water Project (SWP). The SWP brings supplies from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta that are characterized as having higher nutrients than CR water. Above average precipitation in 2017 after five years of drought allowed the majority of the reservoirs to fill. Phytoplankton was analyzed during the drought and after the drought at three reservoirs: Diamond Valley Lake (DVL), which receives SWP water exclusively, Lake Skinner, which can receive a blend of SWP and CR water, and Lake Mathews, which generally receives only CR water. DVL experienced a significant increase in water elevation in 2017 due to large SWP inflows, and there were no significant changes to total phytoplankton biomass, Shannon-Wiener diversity of the phytoplankton, or cyanobacteria biomass in 2017 compared to previous drought years despite the higher nutrient loads. The biomass of cyanobacteria that could potentially impact DVL water quality (Microcystis spp., Aphanizomenon flos-aquae, Dolichospermum spp., and Limnoraphis birgei) did not differ significantly between the heavy precipitation year and drought years. Compared to the other reservoirs, DVL generally has the highest concentration of cyanobacteria due to the water supply having greater nutrients. Lake Mathews’ water levels were similar in drought and wet years due to a reliable supply of CR water and there were no significant changes in the total phytoplankton biomass, phytoplankton diversity, or cyanobacteria biomass in 2017 compared to previous drought years. The biomass of cyanobacteria that could potentially impact water quality at Lake Mathews (L. birgei and Microcystis spp.) did not differ significantly between 2017 and previous drought years. Lake Mathews generally had the lowest cyanobacteria biomass due to the water supply having lower nutrients. The CR supplied most of the water to Lake Skinner during drought years, while the SWP was the primary source during 2017. This change in water source resulted in a significant increase in phytoplankton biomass in 2017, no significant change in diversity, and a significant increase in cyanobacteria biomass. Cyanobacteria that could potentially impact water quality at Skinner included: Microcystis spp., Dolichospermum spp., and A.flos-aquae. There was no significant difference in Microcystis spp. biomass in 2017 compared to previous drought years, but biomass of Dolichospermum spp. and A.flos-aquae were significantly greater in 2017 compared to previous drought years. Dolichospermum sp. and A. flos-aquae are two cyanobacteria that are more sensitive to nutrients than Microcystis spp., which are more sensitive to temperature. Patterns in problem cyanobacteria abundance among Southern California reservoirs as a result of above-average precipitation after more than five years of drought were most closely related to nutrient loading.

Keywords: drought, reservoirs, cyanobacteria, and phytoplankton ecology

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Authors: Nizar Mansour, Chiha Gaha, Emna Gara

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The present research investigates the relationship among HRM practices, knowledge sharing behavior and a certain number of intermediary variables in the context of Tunisian knowledge-intensive firms. Results suggest that five HR practices influence either directly or indirectly the knowledge sharing behavior through enhancing the value of human capital and fostering a learning-oriented organizational climate. Results have strong theoretical implications for both the fields of knowledge management and strategic human resource management. Managerial implications are also derived.

Keywords: human capital, knowledge intensive firms, knowledge sharing, organizational climate, Tunisia

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Authors: Chisomo Patrick Kumbuyo, Katsuyuki Shimizu, Hiroshi Yasuda, Yoshinobu Kitamura

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This study deals with a way of predicting Malawi rainfall from global sea surface temperature (SST) using a simple multiple regression model. Monthly rainfall data from nine stations in Malawi grouped into two zones on the basis of inter-station rainfall correlations were used in the study. Zone 1 consisted of Karonga and Nkhatabay stations, located in northern Malawi; and Zone 2 consisted of Bolero, located in northern Malawi; Kasungu, Dedza, Salima, located in central Malawi; Mangochi, Makoka and Ngabu stations located in southern Malawi. Links between Malawi rainfall and SST based on statistical correlations were evaluated and significant results selected as predictors for the regression models. The predictors for Zone 1 model were identified from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans while those for Zone 2 were identified from the Pacific Ocean. The correlation between the fit of predicted and observed rainfall values of the models were satisfactory with r=0.81 and 0.54 for Zone 1 and 2 respectively (significant at less than 99.99%). The results of the models are in agreement with other findings that suggest that SST anomalies in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans have an influence on the rainfall patterns of Southern Africa.

Keywords: Malawi rainfall, forecast model, predictors, SST

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Authors: M. Boukhrouk, R. Ed-Dali

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Outbound tourism in Morocco, as in the majority of developing countries, reveals some of the aspects of inequality between the north and the south. Considered by some researchers as one of the facets of the development crisis, access to tourism and especially international tourism is a chance for a small minority with financial means, while the vast portions of the population dream rather of immigrating to a developed country for the sake of improving their standard of living. The right to travel is also limited by visa requirements, procedures in host countries, security and technical measures and creates discrimination in the practice of tourism. These conditions do not seem to be favorable to the democratization of the practice of international tourism for the populations of the southern countries. This paper is a contribution to the reading of the trends of outbound tourism in developing countries through the example of Morocco. It highlights the different aspects of Moroccan outbound tourism, destinations and the behavior of tourists through an analysis of the offer of a sample of 50 travel agencies. In the same vein, it offers a reading grid of the possibilities offered for the development of outbound tourism and the various existing obstacles to the democratization of international outbound tourism in the southern countries. This reading reveals the transformation in the behavior of Moroccan international tourists as well as the profound changes in Moroccan society, through a model of statistical analysis.

Keywords: demand, Hajj, Morocco, outbound tourism, tendency, Umrah

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Authors: Newdeskarl Saint Fleur, Nathalie Feuillet, Raphaël Grandin, Éric Jacques, Jennifer Weil-Accardo, Yann Klinger

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The prevailing consensus is that the 2010 Mw7.0 Haiti earthquake left the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden strike-slip Fault (EPGF) unruptured but broke unmapped blind north-dipping thrusts. Using high-resolution topography, aerial images, bathymetry and geology we identified previously unrecognized south-dipping NW-SE-striking active thrusts in southern Haiti. One of them, Lamentin thrust (LT), cuts across the crowded city of Carrefour, extends offshore into Port-au-Prince Bay and connects at depth with the EPGF. We propose that both faults broke in 2010. The rupture likely initiated on the thrust and propagated further along the EPGF due to unclamping. This scenario is consistent with geodetic, seismological and field data. The 2010 earthquake increased the stress toward failure on the unruptured segments of the EPGF and on neighboring thrusts, significantly increasing the seismic hazard in the Port-au-Prince urban area. The numerous active thrusts recognized in that area must be considered for future evaluation of the seismic hazard.

Keywords: active faulting, enriquillo-plantain garden fault, Haiti earthquake, seismic hazard

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Authors: Motlatso Rampedi

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Nigeria has the fifth highest Total Fertility Rate in Sub-Saharan Africa at 5.5 children born to a woman. Some demographic research has found that there is an association between region of residence and fertility in Nigeria, with the Northern regions pertaining to high fertility and the Southern regions pertaining to low fertility levels. Even so, little attention has been given to understanding the effect of region of residence on fertility. Instead, a significant amount of research has been conducted on exploring the proximate determinants of fertility in Nigeria. The objective of this study was to test whether there is an association between region of residence and fertility in Nigeria. Using a sample size of 38 948 women aged 15-49 derived from the 2013 NDHS and the Poisson regression model for analysis, the study has found that region of residence has a significant effect on fertility. Moreover, the ANOVA test has shown that there is a socioeconomic disparity by region of residence in Nigeria. The Northern regions of Nigeria have shown to have higher levels of fertility as compared to the Southern regions. Therefore, while proximate determinants of fertility and socio-demographic characteristics of women are important, region of residence remains one of the fundamental determinants of fertility. Given these findings, it is recommended that government should not exhaust its resources or focus its fertility reduction policies and programmes at entire populations but target specific regions where fertility is most prevalent.

Keywords: high fertility, region, socioeconomic disparity, socio-demographic characteristics

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Authors: Jasmine Latiolais

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Much of the disaster-related literature finds a positive relationship between the impact of a natural disaster and the growth of wages. Panel datasets are often used to explore these effects. However, natural disasters do not impact a single variable in the economy. Rather, natural disasters affect all facets of the economy, simultaneously, upon impact. It is difficult to control for all factors that would be influenced by the impact of a natural disaster, which can lead to lead to omitted variable bias in those studies employing panel datasets. To address this issue of omitted variable bias, an interrupted time series analysis is used to test the short-run relationship between the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on parish wage levels in Southern Louisiana, inherently controlling for economic conditions. This study provides evidence that natural disasters do increase wages in the very short term (one quarter following the impact of the hurricane) but that these results are not seen in the longer term and are not robust. In addition, the significance of the coefficients changes depending on the parish. Overall, this study finds that previous literature on this topic may not be robust when considered through a time-series lens.

Keywords: economic recovery, local economies, local wage growth, natural disasters

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Authors: Hasan Yildizhan

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According to the Solar Energy Potential Atlas (GEPA) prepared by Turkish Ministry of Energy, Hakkari is ranked first in terms of sunshine duration and it is ranked eighth in terms of solar radiation energy. Accordingly, Hakkari has a rich potential of investment with regard to solar radiation energy. The part of the solar radiation energy arriving on the surface of the earth which is transposable to useful work is determined by means of exergy analysis. In this study, the radiation exergy values for Hakkari have been calculated and evaluated by making use of the monthly average solar radiation energy and temperature values measured by General Directorate of State Meteorology.

Keywords: solar radiation exergy, Hakkari, solar energy potential, Turkey

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Authors: Ben Cheikh Asma, Bouafia Nabiha, Ammar Asma, Ezzi Olfa, Meddeb Khaoula, Chouchène Imed, Boussarsar Hamadi, Njah Mansour

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Background: Hospital Acquired Infection (HAI) constitutes an important worldwide health problem. It was associated with high mortality rate in intensive care units (ICU). This study aimed to determine HAI mortality rate in Tunisian intensive care units and identify its risk factors. Methods: We conducted a prospective observational cohort study over a 12 months period (September 15th 2015 to September 15 th 2016) in the adult medical ICU of University Hospital-Farhat Hached (Sousse-Tunisia). All patients admitted in the ICU for more than 48 hours were included in the study. We used an anonymous standardized survey record form to collect data by a medical hygienist assisted by an intensivist. We adopted definitions of Center for Diseases Control and prevention of Atlanta to detect HAI, Kaplan Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard regression to identify independent risk factor of HAI mortality. Results: Of 171 patients, 67 developed ICU-acquired infection (global incidence rate=39.2%). The mean age of patients was 59 ± 21.2 years and 60.8% were male. The most frequently identified infections were pulmonary acquired infection (ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP) and infected atelectasis with density rates 21.4 VAP/1000 days of mechanical ventilation and 9.4 infected atelectasis /1000 days of mechanical ventilation; respectively) and central venous catheter associated infection (CVC - AI) with density rate 28.4 CVC-AI / 1000 CVC-days). HAI mortality rate was 66.7% (n=44). The median survival was 20 days 3.36, 95% Confidential Interval [13.39 – 26.60]. Specific mortality rates according to infectious site were 65.5%, 36.4% and 4.5% respectively for VAP, CVC associated infection and infected atelectasis. In univariate analysis, a significant associations between mortality and cardiovascular history (p=0.04) tracheotomy (p=0.00), peripheral venous catheterization (p=0.04), VAP (p=0.04) and infected atelectasis (p=0.04) were detected. Independent risk factors for HAI mortality were VAP with Hazard Ratio = 3.14, 95% Confidential Interval [1.63 – 6.05] (p=0.001) and tracheotomy (Hazard Ratio=0.22, 95% Confidential Interval [0.10 – 0.44], p=0.000). Conclusions: In the present study, hospital acquired infection mortality rate was relatively high. We need to intensify the fight against these infections especially ventilator-associated pneumonia that is associated with higher risk of mortality in many studies. Thus, more effective infection control interventions were necessary in our hospital.

Keywords: hospital acquired infection, intensive care unit, mortality, risk factors

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Authors: Manit Pollar

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Identifying the dengue epidemic periods early would be helpful to take necessary actions to prevent the dengue outbreaks. Providing an accurate prediction on dengue epidemic seasons will allow sufficient time to take the necessary decisions and actions to safeguard the situation for local authorities. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model on number of dengue incidences in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Southern Thailand using time series analysis. We develop Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the monthly data collected between 2003-2011 and validated the models using data collected between January-September 2012. The result of this study revealed that the SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,2,1)12 model closely described the trends and seasons of dengue incidence and confirmed the existence of dengue fever cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat for the years between 2003-2011. The study showed that the one-step approach for predicting dengue incidences provided significantly more accurate predictions than the twelve-step approach. The model, even if based purely on statistical data analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for disease prevention.

Keywords: SARIMA, time series model, dengue cases, Thailand

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Authors: Sirirat Taneerananon

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This paper presents the results of a study of the ultra-poor in the south of Thailand, revisited after 10 years since the original study in 2000. The original study was conducted in four provinces. The first two namely Phatthalung and Nakorn were chosen to represent the Thai Buddhists and the others, Satun and Pattani were chosen to represent the Thai Muslims. For this study, only the results from the three provinces except Pattani are reported as it was difficult and dangerous to conduct fieldwork in Pattani due to the continued unrest in the area since 2005. The objectives of the study are to find out the changes of the poverty situation after 10 years and to see the impacts of the poverty reduction projects implemented by the government on the poor. The research methodology used both quantitative and qualitative methods. The same villages in the four provinces studied in 1999 were again chosen. In each village, five ultra-poor people and heads of the villages were interviewed. The results show that the poverty situation of the ultra-poor groups has not changed much since they lacked the basic key factor to get themselves out of poverty: The ownership of land. Their chronic poverty situation has been passed on from the last generation. In the province of Phatthalung, the ultra-poor have improved in terms of economic situation because of the big increase in the price of rubber. However, the same could not be said for other provinces. Even though the government’s projects have not reduced the poverty directly, the projects have significantly contributed to the improvement of the quality of life of the poor and the people in the areas.

Keywords: poverty, Southern Thailand, ultra-poor, social sustainability

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Authors: Farhat Hajer, Khir Tahar, Ammar Ben Brahim

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This work presents a study on the influence of the main operating variables on the gas turbine cycle. A numerical simulation of a gas turbine cycle is performed for a real net power of 100 MW. A calculation code is developed using EES software. The operating variables are taken in conformity with the local environmental conditions adopted by the Tunisian Society of Electricity and Gas. Results show that the increase of ambient temperature leads to an increase of Tpz and NO_x emissions rate and a decrease of cycle efficiency and UHC emissions. The CO emissions decrease with the raise of residence time, while NO_x emissions rate increases and UHC emissions rate decreases. Furthermore, both of cycle efficiency and NOx emissions increase with the increase of the pressure ratio.

Keywords: Carbon monoxide, Efficiency, Emissions, Gas Turbine, Nox, UHC

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Authors: Mukolwe D. Lubembe, Odongo O. David, Githaka Naftali, Kanduma Esther, Marinda Oosthuizen, Kgomotso P. Sibeko

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Theileriosis is a tick-borne disease of cattle caused by an apicomplexan protozoan parasite of the genus Theileria. In eastern and southern Africa, Theileria infections in cattle are caused by the species Theileria parva whose natural reservoir is the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer). Currently, East Coast Fever (ECF) caused by the cattle-derived Theileria parva is still a major problem in eastern Africa and some parts of southern Africa but not in South Africa following its eradication in the 1950s. However, Corridor disease (CD) caused by the buffalo-derived Theileria parva still remains a concern in South Africa. The diversity of Theileria parva in South Africa in comparison to other affected countries is poorly defined yet its known to be the survival strategy of this parasite. We assessed the antigenic diversity of Theileria parva isolates from Buffalo and cattle at the wildlife-livestock interface comparing samples from South Africa, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. Antigenic epitopes of eight schizont antigen genes (Tp1, Tp3, Tp4, Tp5, Tp6, Tp7, Tp8 and Tp10) were amplified by PCR from genomic DNA extracted from blood samples collected from cattle and buffalo at the wildlife-livestock interface. Amplicons were purified and then sequenced on NGS platform. Full length open reading frames (ORFs) of two schizont antigen genes (Tp2 and Tp9) and one sporozoite antigen gene, p67 were also amplified from genomic DNA. Amplicons were then purified and cloned for sequencing. Analysis was based on sequence differences in the genes. Preliminary results show an extensively diverse population of Theileria parva circulating in buffalo and cattle populations at the wildlife-livestock interface. Diversity of the antigen genes contributes to the evasion of the immune system of the host by Theileria parva. This possess a concern in that, some of the Theileria parva populations may re-assort and become adapted to cattle to cause a form of theileriosis that is as fatal as ECF in areas where ECF was eradicated or is absent

Keywords: Theileria parva, east coast fever, corridor diseases, antigen genes, diversity

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Authors: Rosemary I. Eneji, Stephen Adi Odey, Edem Carole, Eucharia Nwagbara

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Sexual and reproductive health behaviors are the main causes of death, disability, and disease among adolescents in Nigeria. In this study, we determined the accessibility of youth-friendly sexual and reproductive health services to secondary school adolescents in southern Cross River state, Nigeria. Nineteen randomly selected public secondary schools across the seven local government areas in the zone were used. The respondents were four hundred senior secondary (classes SSI - SS3) students aged 15-19 years, comprising 63.7% females and 36.3% males. A 50-item structured questionnaire was used for the study. There was a strong influence of age and sex of adolescents, income and occupation of parents, knowledge and awareness of adolescents, and tradition on the accessibility and use of youth-friendly sexual and reproductive health services (YFSRHS) to the adolescents. The attitude of health workers towards accessibility was of little effect. Overall, youth-friendly sexual and reproductive health services were not easily accessible to adolescents in the study area. Thus, there is need to enforce adolescent reproductive health policies in the area. Training and use of trained caregivers and peer educators to attend to adolescents and the inclusion of adolescent reproductive health as a subject in the curriculum are strongly recommended.

Keywords: youth, reproductive health, cross river state, secondary schools, Nigeria

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Authors: Zahra Khodaee

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Background and Objective: The attractive potential for tourism in the southern islands of Iran, Kish, and Qeshm and recently Hendurabi, are becoming more and more popular and object of increased attention from the investors. The Iranian coral reef islands, with the exception of Kish and Qeshm, have not undergone sufficient development. The southern islands of Iran have faced two problems with climate change and the desire for the presence of tourists. The lack of proper planning, inefficient management, and lack of adequate knowledge of ecosystems of offshore regions have severely damaged the world natural heritage. This study was conducted to consider the correlation of tourism, development, and ecosystem because there is a need for further addressing the ecotourism in coral islands. Method: Through qualitative research, this paper was used of library studies and field studies and surveying to study the physical (objective-subjective) physical factors of ecotourism development in Honduran Island. Using SPSS software and descriptive-analytical method was shown the results. The survey was conducted with the participation of 150 tourists on Kish islands, who were chosen at random and who expressed their desire to travel to Hendurabi Island. Information was gathered using SPSS software and unique statistical T-test. The questionnaire was put together using AMOS software to ensure that the questions asked were sufficiently relevant. Findings: The results of this study presented that physical factors affecting the development of ecotourism in two categories are objective and subjective factors because IFI factor = 0.911 and CFI Factor = 0.907 into the target community. Discussion and conclusion: The results were satisfactory in that they showed that eco-tourists attached importance to see views, quiet, secluded areas, tranquility security, quality of the area being visited, easy access to services these were the top criteria for those visiting the area while they adhere to environmental compliance. Developing Management of these regions should maintain appropriate utilization along with sustainable and ecological responsibility.

Keywords: ecotourism, coral reef island, development management, Hendurabi Island

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Authors: Zouhour Neji Ben Salem

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Microscopic evacuation focuses on the evacuee behavior and way of search of safety place in an egress situation. In recent years, several models handled microscopic evacuation problem. Among them, we have proposed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as an alternative to mathematical models that can deal with such problem. In this paper, we present two ANN models: SOM map and Hopfield Network used to predict the evacuee behavior in a disaster situation. These models are tested in a real case, the second floor of Tunisian children hospital evacuation in case of fire. The two models are studied and compared in order to evaluate their performance.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, self-organization map, hopfield network, microscopic evacuation, fire building evacuation

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Authors: Constanza Monterrubio-Solis, Jose Tomas Ibarra

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The fertile interdependence of social-ecological systems reveals itself in the interactions between native forests and seeds, home gardens, kitchens, foraging activities, local knowledge, and food practices, creating particular flavors and food meanings as part of cultural identities within territories. Resilience in local-food systems, from a relational perspective, can be understood as the balance between persistence and adaptability to change. Food growing, preparation, and consumption are constantly changing and adapting as expressions of agency of female and male indigenous peoples and peasants. This paper explores local food systems’ expressions of resilience in the la Araucanía region of Chile, namely: diversity, redundancy, buffer capacity, modularity, self-organization, governance, learning, equity, and decision-making. Applying ethnographic research methods (participant observation, focus groups, and semi-structured interviews), this work reflects on the experience developed through work with Mapuche women cultivating home gardens in the region since 2012; it looks to material and symbolic elements of resilience in the local indigenous food systems. Local food systems show indeed indicators of social-ecological resilience. The biocultural memory is expressed in affection to particular flavors and recipes, the cultural importance of seeds and reciprocity networks, as well as an accurate knowledge about the indicators of the seasons and weather, which have allowed local food systems to thrive with a strong cultural foundation. Furthermore, these elements turn into biocultural resistance in the face of the current institutional pressures for rural specialization, processes of cultural assimilation such as agroecosystems and diet homogenization, as well as structural threats towards the diversity and freedom of native seeds. Thus, the resilience-resistance dynamic shown by the social-ecological systems of the southern Andes is daily expressed in the local food systems and flavors and is key for diverse and culturally sound social-ecological health.

Keywords: biocultural heritage, indigenous food systems, social-ecological resilience, southern Andes

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Authors: Tarek Sedki

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Madari gold mine is delineated by latitudes 22° 30' 29" and 22° 32' 33" N and longitudes 36° 24' 03" and 35°11' 44" E. Geologically, Madari rock units are classified into dismembered ophiolites, arc volcanic assemblage, syntectonic metagabbro-diorites and Mineralized quartz diorite and granodiorite. Deposition of gold in area occurred as a direct result of weathering of nearby gold-bearing veins. Main concentrations of gold are supposed to ensue close to the bed rock. Nevertheless, the several shallow channel-fill features covering lag deposits, arising throughout the alluvial fan sequence would definitely contain a percentage of the finer gold due to the limited washing and sorting capacity of the uncommon flood events. Gold deposits arise as disseminated and separate gold with limited pyrite, arsenopyrite and chalcopyrite everywhere veins in the wall rocks and lode gold deposits in quartz veins. In places, the wall rocks, in near district of the quartz vein, are grieved strong silicification, chloritization and pyritization as a result of a metasomatic alteration due to purification of external hydrothermal fluids. Quartz veins are mostly steeply dipping and display banding features and frequently sheared and brecciated.

Keywords: Madari gold mine, placer deposits, southern eastern desert, gold mineralization, quartz veins

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Rezki Akkal, Mohamed Khodja, Slimane Azzi

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Acidification is a technique used in oil reservoirs to improve annual production, reduce the skin and increase the pressure of an oil well while eliminating the formation damage that occurs during the drilling process, completion and, amongst others, to create new channels allowing the easy circulation of oil around a producing well. This is achieved by injecting an acidizing fluid at a relatively low pressure to prevent fracturing formation. The treatment fluid used depends on the type and nature of the reservoir rock traversed as well as its petrophysical properties. In order to understand the interaction mechanisms between the treatment fluids used for the reservoir rock acidizing, several candidate wells for stimulation were selected in the large Hassi Messaoud deposit in southern Algeria. The stimulation of these wells is completed using different fluids composed mainly of HCl acid with other additives such as corrosion inhibitors, clay stabilizers and iron controllers. These treatment fluids are injected over two phases, namely with clean tube (7.5% HCl) and matrix aidizing with HCl (15%). The stimulation results obtained are variable according to the type of rock traversed and its mineralogical composition. These results show that there has been an increase in production flow and head pressure respectively from 1.99 m3 / h to 3.56 m3 / h and from 13 Kgf / cm2 to 20 kgf / cm2 in the sands formation having good petrophysical properties of (porosity = 16%) and low amount of clay (Vsh = 6%).

Keywords: acidizing, Hassi-Messaoud reservoir, tube clean, matrix stimulation

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Authors: S. Yussuf Abdulmaliq

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Experiment was conducted for two years (2013 and 2014) at Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida University, Lapai, Teaching and Research Farm to study the effects of soil organic amendment types and rates on soil chemical fertility improvement, growth and yield of Amarathus cruentus in the southern guinea savannah, lapai, Niger state, Nigeria. Soil and manure samples were collected and analysed for physical and chemical components. The experiments were laid out in 3 x 4 factorial in a randomized complete block design (RCBD). Consisting of three (3) levels of soil amendment types (Poultry manure, goat manure and cowdung) and four (4) levels of amendment rates (0, 6, 12 and 18 t ha-1). Data collected include plant height/plant (cm), number of leaves/plant, leaf area/ plant (cm2) at 2, 4, 6 and 8WAT, fresh vegetable yield/plant, fresh vegetable yield/plot and fresh vegetable yield in tons ha-1. The result obtained showed that, Amaranthus cruentus height, number of leaves and leaf area were not significantly affected by the type of organic amendment and rates at 2WAT in 2013 and 2014 cropping seasons. However, at 4, 6 and 8 WAT, significant differences were observed among the types of amendment and their rates. Application of poultry manure as soil amendment supported taller, large number of leaves and wider leaf area, and higher marketable vegetable yield in 2013 and 2014 cropping seasons (Pα 0.05) which was closely followed by goat manure in the two (2) cropping seasons. In addition, the application of 18 t ha-1 was superior to 12, 6 and the control by producing tallest amaranthus plants, higher number of leaves, wider leaf area and higher marketable vegetable yield in 2013 and 2014 cropping seasons (Pα 0.05). In conclusion, the use of 18 t ha-1poultry manure is therefore recommended as soil amendment for Amaranthus cruentus in southern guinea savannah of Nigeria.

Keywords: Amaranthus cruentus, cowdung, goat manure, poultry manure, soil amendment

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Authors: Balarabe Z. Ahmad, Anne-Lorène Vernay

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The emergence of electricity in Nigeria was dated back to 1896. The power plants have the potential to generate 12,522 MW of electric power. Whereas current dispatch is about 4,000 MW, access to electrification is about 60%, with consumption at 0.14 MWh/capita. The government embarked on energy reforms to mitigate energy poverty. The reform targeted the provision of electricity access to 75% of the population by 2020 and 90% by 2030. Growth of total electricity demand by a factor of 5 by 2035 had been projected. This means that Nigeria will require almost 530 TWh of electricity which can be delivered through generators with a capacity of 65 GW. Analogously, the geographical location of Nigeria has placed it in an advantageous position as the source of solar energy; the availability of a high sunshine belt is obvious in the country. The implication is that the far North, where energy poverty is high, equally has about twice the solar radiation as against southern Nigeria. Hence, the chance of generating solar electricity is 66% possible at 11850 x 103 GWh per year, which is one hundred times the current electricity consumption rate in the country. Harvesting these huge potentials may be a mirage if the entrepreneurs in the solar panel business are left with the conventional business models that are not uncertainty resilient. Currently, business entities in RE in Nigeria are uncertain of; accessing the national grid, purchasing potentials of cooperating organizations, currency fluctuation and interest rate increases. Uncertainties such as the security of projects and government policy are issues entrepreneurs must navigate to remain sustainable in the solar panel industry in Nigeria. The aim of this paper is to identify how entrepreneurial firms consider uncertainties in developing workable business models for commercializing solar energy projects in Nigeria. In an attempt to develop a novel business model, the paper investigated how entrepreneurial firms assess and navigate uncertainties. The roles of key stakeholders in helping entrepreneurs to manage uncertainties in the Nigeria RE sector were probed in the ongoing study. The study explored empirical uncertainties that are peculiar to RE entrepreneurs in Nigeria. A mixed-mode of research was embraced using qualitative data from face-to-face interviews conducted on the Solar Energy Entrepreneurs and the experts drawn from key stakeholders. Content analysis of the interview was done using Atlas. It is a nine qualitative tool. The result suggested that all stakeholders are required to synergize in developing an uncertainty resilient business model. It was opined that the RE entrepreneurs need modifications in the business recommendations encapsulated in the energy policy in Nigeria to strengthen their capability in delivering solar energy solutions to the yawning Nigerians.

Keywords: uncertainties, entrepreneurial, business model, solar-panel

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