Search results for: smooth baseline hazard

Authors: A. Bere, H. G. Sithuba, K. Kyei, C. Sigauke

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We employ a discrete logit survival model to investigate the risk factors for early alcohol intake among students at two tertiary institutions in Thohoyandou, South Africa. Data were collected from a sample of 744 students using a self-administered questionnaire. Significant covariates were arrived at through a regularization algorithm implemented using the glmmLasso package. The tuning parameter was determined using a five-fold cross-validation algorithm. The baseline hazard was modelled as a smooth function of time through the use of spline functions. The results show that the hazard of initial alcohol intake peaks at the age of about 16 years and that at any given time, being of a male gender, prior use of other drugs, having drinking peers, having experienced negative life events and physical abuse are associated with a higher risk of alcohol intake debut.

Keywords: cross-validation, discrete hazard model, LASSO, smooth baseline hazard

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Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

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Authors: Jagroop Singh Sidhu, Buta Singh

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A low computational deblocking filter including three frequency related modes (smooth mode, intermediate mode, and non-smooth mode for low-frequency, mid-frequency, and high frequency regions, respectively) is proposed. The suggested approach requires zero additions, zero subtractions, zero multiplications (for intermediate region), no divisions (for non-smooth region) and no comparison. The suggested method thus keeps the computation lower and thus suitable for image coding systems based on blocks. Comparison of average number of operations for smooth, non-smooth, intermediate (per pixel vector for each block) using filter suggested by Chen and the proposed method filter suggests that the proposed filter keeps the computation lower and is thus suitable for fast processing algorithms.

Keywords: blocking artifacts, computational complexity, non-smooth, intermediate, smooth

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Authors: Alaa Mostafa, Samuel Dagogo-Jack, Vivian Thieu, Maria Yu, Nan Zhang, Dara Schuster, Luis-Emilio Garcia-Perez

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Dulaglutide (DU), a once-weekly glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist, was studied in the AWARD clinical trial program in adult patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and demonstrated significant hemoglobin A1c (A1c) reduction and potential for weight loss. To evaluate the efficacy and safety of DU 1.5 mg and DU 0.75 mg in patients with T2D by baseline A1c <8.5% or ≥8.5%, a post-hoc analysis was conducted on AWARD-1 to -6 and -8 at 6 months. Across 7 studies, 55% to 82% of the DU-treated patients had a baseline A1c <8.5%, and 18% to 45% had a baseline A1c ≥8.5%. The ranges of A1c reductions with baseline A1c <8.5% and ≥8.5%, respectively, were: DU 1.5 mg: -0.67% to -1.25% and -1.22% to -2.37%; DU 0.75 mg: -0.53% to -1.07% and -1.37% to -2.19%. The A1c reduction from the pooled analysis was greater in patients with baseline A1c ≥8.5% than patients with baseline A1c <8.5%, respectively: DU 1.5 mg: -1.86% and -1.02%; DU 0.75 mg: -1.75% and -0.83%. DU treatments were well tolerated among baseline A1c subgroups. Across the AWARD program, DU 1.5 mg and DU 0.75 mg demonstrated significant A1c reduction in both subgroups with an acceptable safety profile. Compared to patients with baseline A1c <8.5%, patients with baseline A1c ≥8.5% had greater A1c reduction. Disclosures: This study was supported and conducted by Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, IN, USA.

Keywords: A1c reduction, dulaglutide, type 2 diabetes, weight loss

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Authors: Hadi Ghasemi, Mark Leonard, Spiliopoulos Spiro, Phil Cummins, Mathew Moihoi, Felix Taranu, Eric Buri, Chris Mckee

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In this study the level of seismic hazard in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) was calculated for return period of 475 years, using modeled seismic sources and assigned ground-motion equations. The calculations were performed for bedrock site conditions (Vs30=760 m/s). From the results it is evident that the seismic hazard reaches its maximum level (i.e. PGA≈1g for 475 yr return period) at the Huon Peninsula and southern New Britain regions. Disaggregation analysis revealed that moderate to large earthquakes occurring along the New Britain Trench mainly control the level of hazard at these locations. The open-source computer program OpenQuake developed by Global Earthquake Model foundation was used for the seismic hazard computations. It should be emphasized that the presented results are still preliminary and should not be interpreted as our final assessment of seismic hazard in PNG.

Keywords: probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, Papua New Guinea, building code, OpenQuake

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Authors: Amira Kaddour

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To curb the problem of liquidity in times of financial crises, two cases arise; the Bailout or Bailin, two opposite choices that elicit the analysis of their effect on moral hazard. This paper attempts to empirically analyze the effect of these two types of events on the behavior of investors. For this end, we use the Emerging Market Bonds Index (EMBI-JP Morgan), and its excess of return, to detect the change in the risk premia through a Markov switching model. The results showed the transition to two types of regime and an effect on moral hazard; Bailout is an incentive of moral hazard, Bailin effectiveness remains subject of credibility.

Keywords: Bailout, Bailin, Moral hazard, financial crisis, Markov switching

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Authors: Hanna Schübel, Ivo Wallimann-Helmer

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In order to reach the goal of the Paris Agreement to not overshoot 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels, various countries including the UK and Switzerland have committed themselves to net zero emissions by 2050. The employment of negative emission technologies (NETs) is very likely going to be necessary for meeting these national objectives as well as other internationally agreed climate targets. NETs are methods of removing carbon from the atmosphere and are thus a means for addressing climate change. They range from afforestation to technological measures such as direct air capture and carbon storage (DACCS), where CO2 is captured from the air and stored underground. As all so-called geoengineering technologies, the development and deployment of NETs are often subject to moral hazard arguments. As these technologies could be perceived as an alternative to mitigation efforts, so the argument goes, they are potentially a dangerous distraction from the main target of mitigating emissions. We think that this is a dangerous argument to make as it may hinder the development of NETs which are an essential element of net zero emission targets. In this paper we argue that the moral hazard argument is only problematic if we do not reflect upon which levels of emissions are at stake in order to meet net zero emissions. In response to the moral hazard argument we develop an account of which levels of emissions in given societies should be mitigated and not be the target of NETs and which levels of emissions can legitimately be a target of NETs. For this purpose, we define four different levels of emissions: the current level of individual emissions, the level individuals emit in order to appear in public without shame, the level of a fair share of individual emissions in the global budget, and finally the baseline of net zero emissions. At each level of emissions there are different subjects to be assigned responsibilities if societies and/or individuals are committed to the target of net zero emissions. We argue that all emissions within one’s fair share do not demand individual mitigation efforts. The same holds with regard to individuals and the baseline level of emissions necessary to appear in public in their societies without shame. Individuals are only under duty to reduce their emissions if they exceed this baseline level. This is different for whole societies. Societies demanding more emissions to appear in public without shame than the individual fair share are under duty to foster emission reductions and are not legitimate to reduce by introducing NETs. NETs are legitimate for reducing emissions only below the level of fair shares and for reaching net zero emissions. Since access to NETs to achieve net zero emissions demands technology not affordable to individuals there are also no full individual responsibilities to achieve net zero emissions. This is mainly a responsibility of societies as a whole.

Keywords: climate change, mitigation, moral hazard, negative emission technologies, responsibility

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Authors: Stefano Zappacosta, Cristiano Bove, Maria Carmela Marinelli, Paola di Lauro, Katarina Spasenovic, Lorenzo Ostano, Giuseppe Aiello, Marco Pietrosanto

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This paper proposes a novel neural network approach for assessing flood hazard mapping. The core of the model is a machine learning component fed by frequency ratios, namely statistical correlations between flood event occurrences and a selected number of topographic properties. The proposed hybrid model can be used to classify four different increasing levels of hazard. The classification capability was compared with the flood hazard mapping River Basin Plans (PAI) designed by the Italian Institute for Environmental Research and Defence, ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale). The study area of Piemonte, an Italian region, has been considered without loss of generality. The frequency ratios may be used as a standalone block to model the flood hazard mapping. Nevertheless, the mixture with a neural network improves the classification power of several percentage points, and may be proposed as a basic tool to model the flood hazard map in a wider scope.

Keywords: flood modeling, hazard map, neural networks, hydrogeological risk, flood risk assessment

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Authors: C. M. Nur Syazwani, M. K. Ahmad Imran, Rizal E. M. Nasir

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The study on BWB UV begins in UiTM since 2005 and three designs have been studied and published. The latest designs are Baseline-III and inspired by birds that have features and aerodynamics behaviour of cruising birds without flapping capability. The aircraft featuring planform and configuration are similar to the bird. Baseline-III has major flaws particularly in its low lift-to-drag ratio, stability and issues regarding limited controllability. New design known as Baseline-IV replaces straight, swept wing to delta wing and have a broader tail compares to the Baseline-III’s. The objective of the study is to investigate aerodynamics of Baseline-IV bird-inspired BWB aircraft. This will be achieved by theoretical calculation and wind tunnel experiments. The result shows that both theoretical and wind tunnel experiments of Baseline-IV graph of CL and CD versus alpha are quite similar to each other in term of pattern of graph slopes and values. Baseline-IV has higher lift coefficient values at wide range of angle of attack compares to Baseline-III. Baseline-IV also has higher maximum lift coefficient, higher maximum lift-to-drag and lower parasite drag. It has stable pitch moment versus lift slope but negative moment at zero lift for zero angle-of-attack tail setting. At high angle of attack, Baseline-IV does not have stability reversal as shown in Baseline-III. Baseline-IV is proven to have improvements over Baseline-III in terms of lift, lift-to-drag ratio and pitch moment stability at high angle-of-attack.

Keywords: blended wing-body, bird-inspired blended wing-body, aerodynamic, stability

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Authors: Abdullah Özköse, Ahmet Tamkoç

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The present study was conducted to determine the yield and yield components of smooth bromegrass lines under the environmental conditions of the Konya region during the growing seasons between 2011 and 2013. The experiment was performed in the randomized complete block design (RCBD) with four replications. It was found that the selected lines had a statistically significant effect on all the investigated traits, except for the main stem length and the number of nodes in the main stem. According to the two-year average calculated for various parameters checked in the smooth bromegrass lines, the main stem length ranged from 71.6 cm to 79.1 cm, the main stem diameter from 2.12 mm from 2.70 mm, the number of nodes in the main stem from 3.2 to 3.7, the internode length from 11.6 cm to 18.9 cm, flag leaf length from 9.7 cm to 12.7 cm, flag leaf width from 3.58 cm to 6.04 mm, herbage yield from 221.3 kg da^–1 to 354.7 kg da^–1 and hay yield from 100.4 kg da^–1 to 190.1 kg da^–1. The study concluded that the smooth bromegrass lines differ in terms of yield and yield components. Therefore, it is very crucial to select suitable varieties of smooth bromegrass to obtain optimum yield.

Keywords: semiarid region, smooth bromegrass, yield, yield components

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Authors: Chantarat Manvichien

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The purpose of this research paper was aimed to examine the bird strike prevention in the vicinity of Suvarnabhumi Airport, Thailand. A bird strike event occurs when a bird or a flock of birds collide with an operating airplane and results in flight interruption. This is the reason why International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a part of the United Nations, has an assumption that birds, including other wildlife, are a serious hazard to aircraft and attempts should be accomplished to overcome this hazard. ICAO requires all airports worldwide to set up proactive countermeasures in order to reduce the risk from bird strike and wildlife hazard. In Thailand, the Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited which manages Suvarnabhumi Airport, also known as Bangkok International Airport, responds to the requirements and spends a lot of effort to ensure this hazard is manageable. An intensive study on the countermeasures to prevent aircraft accident from bird strike and other wildlife have been continuously executed since the early construction of the Airport until nowadays.

Keywords: bird strike, flight safety, wildlife hazard, Suvarnabhumi airport

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: cascading hazards, disaster assessment, mullti-hazards, risk assessment

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Authors: Juan Bojórquez, Henry E. Reyes, Edén Bojórquez, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar

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This paper addressed the use of Artificial Intelligence to obtain the structural reliability of reinforced concrete buildings. For this purpose, artificial neuronal networks (ANN) are developed to predict seismic demand hazard curves. In order to have enough input-output data to train the ANN, a set of reinforced concrete buildings (low, mid, and high rise) are designed, then a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is made to obtain the seismic demand hazard curves. The results are then used as input-output data to train the ANN in a feedforward backpropagation model. The predicted values of the seismic demand hazard curves found by the ANN are then compared. Finally, it is concluded that the computer time analysis is significantly lower and the predictions obtained from the ANN were accurate in comparison to the values obtained from the conventional methods.

Keywords: structural reliability, seismic design, machine learning, artificial neural network, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, seismic demand hazard curves

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Authors: Lingzhi Li, Jiankun Zhang, Tiantian Gu

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Hazard management that can prevent fatal accidents and property losses is a fundamental process during the buildings’ construction stage. However, due to lack of safety supervision resources and operational pressures, the conduction of hazard management is poor and ineffective in China. In order to improve the quality of construction safety management, it is critical to explore the use of information technologies to ensure that the process of hazard management is efficient and effective. After exploring the existing problems of construction hazard management in China, this paper develops the griddization management model for construction hazard management. First, following the knowledge grid infrastructure, the griddization computing infrastructure for construction hazards management is designed which includes five layers: resource entity layer, information management layer, task management layer, knowledge transformation layer and application layer. This infrastructure will be as the technical support for realizing grid management. Second, this study divides the construction hazards into grids through city level, district level and construction site level according to grid principles. Last, a griddization management process including hazard identification, assessment and control is developed. Meanwhile, all stakeholders of construction safety management, such as owners, contractors, supervision organizations and government departments, should take the corresponding responsibilities in this process. Finally, a case study based on actual construction hazard identification, assessment and control is used to validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed griddization management model. The advantage of this designed model is to realize information sharing and cooperative management between various safety management departments.

Keywords: construction hazard, griddization computing, grid management, process

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Authors: Devanjan Bhattacharya, Jitka Komarkova

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The research describes the implementation of a novel and stand-alone system for dynamic hazard warning. The system uses all existing infrastructure already in place like mobile networks, a laptop/PC and the small installation software. The geospatial dataset are the maps of a region which are again frugal. Hence there is no need to invest and it reaches everyone with a mobile. A novel architecture of hazard assessment and warning introduced where major technologies in ICT interfaced to give a unique WebGIS based dynamic real time geohazard warning communication system. A never before architecture introduced for integrating WebGIS with telecommunication technology. Existing technologies interfaced in a novel architectural design to address a neglected domain in a way never done before–through dynamically updatable WebGIS based warning communication. The work publishes new architecture and novelty in addressing hazard warning techniques in sustainable way and user friendly manner. Coupling of hazard zonation and hazard warning procedures into a single system has been shown. Generalized architecture for deciphering a range of geo-hazards has been developed. Hence the developmental work presented here can be summarized as the development of internet-SMS based automated geo-hazard warning communication system; integrating a warning communication system with a hazard evaluation system; interfacing different open-source technologies towards design and development of a warning system; modularization of different technologies towards development of a warning communication system; automated data creation, transformation and dissemination over different interfaces. The architecture of the developed warning system has been functionally automated as well as generalized enough that can be used for any hazard and setup requirement has been kept to a minimum.

Keywords: geospatial, web-based GIS, geohazard, warning system

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Authors: Masood Beheshtirad

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Identification of regions having potential for landslide occurrence is one of the basic measures in natural resources management. Different landslide hazard mapping models are proposed based on the environmental condition and goals. In this research landslide hazard map using multiple regression model were provided and applicability of this model is investigated in Baghdasht watershed. Dependent variable is landslide inventory map and independent variables consist of information layers as Geology, slope, aspect, distance from river, distance from road, fault and land use. For doing this, existing landslides have been identified and an inventory map made. The landslide hazard map is based on the multiple regression provided. The level of similarity potential hazard classes and figures of this model were compared with the landslide inventory map in the SPSS environments. Results of research showed that there is a significant correlation between the potential hazard classes and figures with area of the landslides. The multiple regression model is suitable for application in the Baghdasht Watershed.

Keywords: landslide, mapping, multiple model, regression

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Authors: K. Abuzayan, H. Alabed

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The objectives of this study (baseline study, n = 20) were to implement Matlab procedures for quantifying selected static balance variables, establish baseline data of selected variables which characterize static balance activities in a population of healthy young adult males, and to examine any trial effects on these variables. The results indicated that the implementation of Matlab procedures for quantifying selected static balance variables was practical and enabled baseline data to be established for selected variables. There was no significant trial effect. Recommendations were made for suitable tests to be used in later studies. Specifically it was found that one foot-tiptoes tests either in static balance is too challenging for most participants in normal circumstances. A one foot-flat eyes open test was considered to be representative and challenging for static balance.

Keywords: static balance, base of support, baseline data, young adults

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Authors: Atikah Binti Azudin, Nurin Nazlah Binti Muhamad Yani, Nur Alya Nadhirah Binti Naaidith, Nur Amylia Wahida Binti Mat Ayob, Nurshamimi Shakirah Binti Suboh, Nur Auni Batrisyia Binti Md. Zaini, Nur Aziemah Binti Mohamad, Nurul Suffiyah Binti Sa’Dun, Sabrina Sasha Izzati Binti Zubaile, Umi Huwaina Binti Ahmiruddin, Wan Nur Shafawati Binti Wan Ghazali

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A hazard alert is intended to provide brief information about significant incidents or existing difficulties in Department workplaces. The alert gives guidelines for proper processes, practices, and controls to be applied. When operated in accordance with the manufacturer's instructions, any machine or tool utilized at work provides a safe and dependable platform for workers to accomplish job duties. However, when not utilized appropriately, the machine might pose a major hazard to employees. Employers have a duty to keep employees safe in this scenario. This Hazard Alert outlines specific occupational dangers and the controls that employers must apply to prevent injury or fatal accidents. There have been several cases of hazard alerts in Malaysia, which have had a negative impact on a few workers. Looking on the bright side, we can overcome every incident in a variety of ways. One of these is that only qualified individuals operate mobile machinery and equipment. In addition, employees may also perform frequent pre-use inspections of machinery to discover and fix flaws. Hazard alert is very important, and this study would cover a variety of subjects, including the methods employed.

Keywords: safe, hazard, impacts, duties.

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Authors: Yao Song, Danni Cheng, Jianjun Ren

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Objectives: We aimed to explore the prognostic effects of absolute values and dynamic changes of common hematological indices on oropharynx squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients treated with radiation. Methods and materials: The absolute values of white blood cell (WBC), absolute neutrophil count (ANC), absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), hemoglobin (Hb), platelet (Plt), albumin (Alb), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) at baseline (within 45 days before radiation), 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-months after the start of radiotherapy were retrospectively collected. Locally-estimated smoothing scatterplots were used to describe the smooth trajectory of each index. A mixed-effect model with a random slope was fitted to describe the changing rate and trend of indices over time. Cox proportional hazard analysis was conducted to assess the correlation between hematological indices and treatment outcomes. Results: Of the enrolled 85 OPSCC patients, inflammatory indices, such as WBC and ALC, dropped rapidly during acute treatment and gradually recovered, while NLR and PLR increased at first three months and subsequently declined within 3-12 months. Higher absolute value or increasing trend of nutritional indices (Alb and Hb) was associated with better prognosis (all p<0.05). In contrast, patients with higher absolute value or upward trend of inflammatory indices (WBC, ANC, Plt, PLR and NLR) had worse survival (all p<0.05). Conclusions: The absolute values and dynamic changes of hematological indices were valuable prognostic factors for OPSCC patients who underwent radiotherapy.

Keywords: hematological indices, oropharyngeal cancer, radiotherapy, NLR, PLR

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Authors: Khaled M. Alqahtani

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Copy number alterations (CNA) are variations in the structure of the genome, where certain regions deviate from the typical two chromosomal copies. These alterations are pivotal in understanding tumor progression and are indicative of patients' survival outcomes. However, effectively modeling patients' survival based on their genomic CNA profiles while identifying relevant genomic regions remains a statistical challenge. Various methods, such as the Cox proportional hazard (PH) model with ridge, lasso, or elastic net penalties, have been proposed but often overlook the inherent dependencies between genomic regions, leading to results that are hard to interpret. In this study, we enhance the elastic net penalty by incorporating an additional penalty that accounts for these dependencies. This approach yields smooth parameter estimates and facilitates variable selection, resulting in a sparse solution. Our findings demonstrate that this method outperforms other models in predicting survival outcomes, as evidenced by our simulation study. Moreover, it allows for a more meaningful interpretation of genomic regions associated with patients' survival. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach using both real data from a lung cancer cohort and simulated datasets.

Keywords: copy number alterations, cox proportional hazard, lung cancer, regression, sparse solution

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Authors: Nihat Dipova, Bulent Cangir

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This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Antalya (SW Turkey). South west of Turkey is characterized by large earthquakes resulting from the continental collision between the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates and crustal faults. Earthquakes around the study area are grouped into two; crustal earthquakes (D=0-50 km) and subduction zone earthquakes (50-140 km). Maximum observed magnitude of subduction earthquakes is Mw=6.0. Maximum magnitude of crustal earthquakes is Mw=6.6. Sources for crustal earthquakes are faults which are related with Isparta Angle and Cyprus Arc tectonic structures. A new earthquake catalogue for Antalya, with unified moment magnitude scale has been prepared and seismicity of the area around Antalya city has been evaluated by defining ‘a’ and ‘b’ parameters of the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship. The Standard Cornell-McGuire method has been used for hazard computation utilizing CRISIS2007 software. Attenuation relationships proposed by Chiou and Youngs (2008) has been used for 0-50 km earthquakes and Youngs et. al (1997) for deep subduction earthquakes. Finally, Seismic hazard map for peak horizontal acceleration on a uniform site condition of firm rock (average shear wave velocity of about 1130 m/s) at a hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years has been prepared.

Keywords: Antalya, peak ground acceleration, seismic hazard assessment, subduction

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Authors: Mahmoud S. Ahmed, Hany A. Mohamed, Mohamed A. Omara, Mohamed F. Abdeen

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Experimental study of natural convection heat transfer inside smooth and rough surfaces of vertical and inclined equilateral triangular channels of different inclination angles with a uniformly heated surface are performed. The inclination angle is changed from 15º to 90º. Smooth and rough surface of average roughness (0.02 mm) are used and their effect on the heat transfer characteristics are studied. The local and average heat transfer coefficients and Nusselt number are obtained for smooth and rough channels at different heat flux values, different inclination angles and different Rayleigh numbers (Ra) 6.48 × 105 ≤ Ra ≤ 4.78 × 106. The results show that the local Nusselt number decreases with increase of axial distance from the lower end of the triangular channel to a point near the upper end of channel, and then, it slightly increases. Higher values of local Nusselt number for rough channel along the axial distance compared with the smooth channel. The average Nusselt number of rough channel is higher than that of smooth channel by about 8.1% for inclined case at θ = 45o and 10% for vertical case. The results obtained are correlated using dimensionless groups for both rough and smooth surfaces of the inclined and vertical triangular channels.

Keywords: natural heat transfer convection, constant heat flux, open channels, heat transfer

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Authors: B. O. Adegoke, B. O. Ola, D. T. Ademiluyi

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This paper examines the use of computer and its related health hazard among computer users in South-Western zone of Nigeria. Two hundred and eighteen (218) computer users constituted the population used to evaluate association between posture, extensive computer use and related health hazard. The instruments for the study are a questionnaire on demographics, lifestyle, body features and work ability index while mean rating, standard deviation and t test were used for data analysis. Identified health related hazard include damages to the eyesight, bad posture, arthritis, musculoskeletal disorders, headache, stress and so on. The results showed that factors such as work demand, posture, closeness to computer screen and excessive working hours on computers constitute health hazards in both old and young computer users of various gender. It is therefore recommended that total number of hours spent with computer should be monitored and controlled.

Keywords: computer-related health hazard, musculoskeletal disorders, computer usage, work ability index

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Authors: Z. A. Ahmad, R. C. Omar, I. Z. Baharuddin, R. Roslan

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Assessments of social vulnerability, carried out holistically, can provide an important guide to the planning process and to decisions on resource allocation at various levels, and can help to raise public awareness of geo-hazard risks. The assessments can help to provide answers for basic questions such as the human vulnerability at the geo-hazard prone or disaster areas causing health damage, economic loss, loss of natural heritage and vulnerability impact of extreme natural hazard event. To overcome these issues, integrated framework for assessing the increasing human vulnerability to environmental changes caused by geo-hazards will be introduced using an indicator from landslide risk map that is related to agent based modeling platform. The indicators represent the underlying factors, which influence a community’s ability to deal with and recover from the damage associated with geo-hazards. Scope of this paper is particularly limited to landslides.

Keywords: social, vulnerability, geo-hazard, methodology, indicators

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Authors: Tauhidur Rahman, Subhrajit Pathak

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In this study, structural response of Bhairabi-Sairang Tunnel due to presence of seismic faults has been thoroughly examined. There may be several active faults located in and around the project. Faults are the key seismic sources from where earthquakes are originated. The magnitude of earthquake will depend on the length of the fault. A long fault more than 200 km can produce earthquake of magnitude (Mw ) more than 8.0 and smaller length less than 10 km will produce small magnitude earthquake. Now-a-days it is very much essential to identify the distance and length of a fault from the project site. Based on this, in the present paper, a case study of the Bhairabi Sairang Tunnel of 1.73 Km length located in the North Eastern Region of India has been selected to calculate the seismic hazard from the surrounding effect of faults. A comparative study of seismic hazard at the tunnel site has been made based on the location of faults with the seismic hazard obtained from the Indian Standards code of Practice. In this paper, a practical problem of a tunnel has been analysed based on the available faults around the project site accounting the soil factor.

Keywords: seismic hazard, effect of fault, soil factor, Bhairabi Sairang tunnel

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Authors: Shotiros Protong

Abstract:

The incidents of sudden landslides in Thailand during the past decade have occurred frequently and more severely. It is necessary to focus on the principal parameters used for analysis such as land cover land use, rainfall values, characteristic of soil and digital elevation model (DEM). The combination of intense rainfall and severe monsoons is increasing due to global climate change. Landslide occurrences rapidly increase during intense rainfall especially in the rainy season in Thailand which usually starts around mid-May and ends in the middle of October. The rain-triggered landslide hazard analysis is the focus of this research. The combination of geotechnical and hydrological data are used to determine permeability, conductivity, bedding orientation, overburden and presence of loose blocks. The regional landslide hazard mapping is developed using the Slope Stability Index SINMAP model supported on Arc GIS software version 10.1. Geological and land use data are used to define the probability of landslide occurrences in terms of geotechnical data. The geological data can indicate the shear strength and the angle of friction values for soils above given rock types, which leads to the general applicability of the approach for landslide hazard analysis. To address the research objectives, the methods are described in this study: setup and calibration of the SINMAP model, sensitivity of the SINMAP model, geotechnical laboratory, landslide assessment at present calibration and landslide assessment under future climate simulation scenario A2 and B2. In terms of hydrological data, the millimetres/twenty-four hours of average rainfall data are used to assess the rain triggered landslide hazard analysis in slope stability mapping. During 1954-2012 period, is used for the baseline of rainfall data at the present calibration. The climate change in Thailand, the future of climate scenarios are simulated by spatial and temporal scales. The precipitation impact is need to predict for the climate future, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) version 4.2, is used to assess the simulation scenario of future change between latitude 16o 26’ and 18o 37’ north and between longitude 98o 52’ and 103o 05’ east by SDSM software. The research allows the mapping of risk parameters for landslide dynamics, and indicates the spatial and time trends of landslide occurrences. Thus, regional landslide hazard mapping under present-day climatic conditions from 1954 to 2012 and simulations of climate change based on GCM scenarios A2 and B2 from 2013 to 2099 related to the threshold rainfall values for the selected the study area in Uttaradit province in the northern part of Thailand. Finally, the landslide hazard mapping will be compared and shown by areas (km2 ) in both the present and the future under climate simulation scenarios A2 and B2 in Uttaradit province.

Keywords: landslide hazard, GIS, slope stability index (SINMAP), landslides, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 528

Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

Abstract:

Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: S. M. Rifat, André L. Marchildon, Mark F. Tachie

Abstract:

Experiments were performed to investigate the effects of roughness on the reattachment and redevelopment regions over a 12 mm forward facing step (FFS) in an open channel flow. The experiments were performed over an upstream smooth wall and a smooth FFS, an upstream wall coated with sandpaper 36 grit and a smooth FFS and an upstream rough wall produced from sandpaper 36 grit and a FFS coated with sandpaper 36 grit. To investigate only the wall roughness effects, Reynolds number, Froude number, aspect ratio and blockage ratio were kept constant. Upstream profiles showed reduced streamwise mean velocities close to the rough wall compared to the smooth wall, but the turbulence level was increased by upstream wall roughness. The reattachment length for the smooth-smooth wall experiment was 1.78h; however, when it is replaced with rough-smooth wall the reattachment length decreased to 1.53h. It was observed that the upstream roughness increased the physical size of contours of maximum turbulence level; however, the downstream roughness decreased both the size and magnitude of contours in the vicinity of the leading edge of the step. Quadrant analysis was performed to investigate the dominant Reynolds shear stress contribution in the recirculation region. The Reynolds shear stress and turbulent kinetic energy profiles after the reattachment showed slower recovery compared to the streamwise mean velocity, however all the profiles fairly collapse on their corresponding upstream profiles at x/h = 60. It was concluded that to obtain a complete collapse several more streamwise distances would be required.

Keywords: forward facing step, open channel, separated and reattached turbulent flows, wall roughness

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: S. M. Rifat, André L. Marchildon, Mark F. Tachie

Abstract:

The effect of upstream surface roughness over a smooth forward facing step in an open channel was investigated using a particle image velocimetry technique. Three different upstream surface topographies consisting of hydraulically smooth wall, sandpaper 36 grit and sand grains were examined. Besides the wall roughness conditions, all other upstream flow characteristics were kept constant. It was also observed that upstream roughness decreased the approach velocity by 2% and 10% but increased the turbulence intensity by 14% and 35% at the wall-normal distance corresponding to the top plane of the step compared to smooth upstream. The results showed that roughness decreased the reattachment lengths by 14% and 30% compared to smooth upstream. Although the magnitudes of maximum positive and negative Reynolds shear stress in separated and reattached region were 0.02Ue for all the cases, the physical size of both the maximum and minimum contour levels were decreased by increasing upstream roughness.

Keywords: forward facing step, open channel, separated and reattached turbulent flows, wall roughness

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Mohammad Mehdi Mazarei, Ali Asghar Behroozpoor

Abstract:

In this paper, we define an optimization problem corresponding to smooth and nonsmooth functions which its optimal solution is the first derivative of these functions in a domain. For this purpose, a linear programming problem corresponding to optimization problem is obtained. The optimal solution of this linear programming problem is the approximate generalized first derivative. In fact, we approximate generalized first derivative of nonsmooth functions as tailor series. We show the efficiency of our approach by some smooth and nonsmooth functions in some examples.

Keywords: general derivative, linear programming, optimization problem, smooth and nonsmooth functions

Procedia PDF Downloads 523