Search results for: short fetch
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2894

Search results for: short fetch

2714 Short-Term Physiological Evaluation of Augmented Reality System for Thanatophobia Psychotherapy

Authors: Kais Siala, Mohamed Kharrat, Mohamed Abid

Abstract:

Exposure therapies encourage patients to gradually begin facing their painful memories of the trauma in order to reduce fear and anxiety. In this context, virtual reality techniques are widely used for treatment of different kinds of phobia. The particular case of fear of death phobia (thanataphobia) is addressed in this paper. For this purpose, we propose to make a simulation of Near Death Experience (NDE) using augmented reality techniques. We propose in particular to simulate the Out-of-Body experience (OBE) which is the first step of a Near-Death-Experience (NDE). In this paper, we present technical aspects of this simulation as well as short-term impact in terms of physiological measures. The non-linear Poincéré plot is used to describe the difference in Heart Rate Variability between In-Body and Out-Of-Body conditions.

Keywords: Out-of-Body simulation, physiological measure, augmented reality, phobia psychotherapy, HRV, Poincaré plot

Procedia PDF Downloads 275
2713 Design and Simulation of a Double-Stator Linear Induction Machine with Short Squirrel-Cage Mover

Authors: David Rafetseder, Walter Bauer, Florian Poltschak, Wolfgang Amrhein

Abstract:

A flat double-stator linear induction machine (DSLIM) with a short squirrel-cage mover is designed for high thrust force at moderate speed < 5m/s. The performance and motor parameters are determined on the basis of a 2D time-transient simulation with the finite element (FE) software Maxwell 2015. Design guidelines and transformation rules for space vector theory of the LIM are presented. Resulting thrust calculated by flux and current vectors is compared with the FE results showing good coherence and reduced noise. The parameters of the equivalent circuit model are obtained.

Keywords: equivalent circuit model, finite element model, linear induction motor, space vector theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 537
2712 An AI Based Smart Conference Calling System Using Bluetooth Technology

Authors: Ankita Dixit

Abstract:

A conference call using a mobile refers to a telephonic call in which several people talks to each other simultaneously. This is one of the most eminent features nowadays. This concept is already existing using LTE technology for mobile phones supporting SIM cards. Hence, currently, a conference call is possible only with the support of a SIM card, i.e., a Mobile operator. Bluetooth is a short-range wireless technology that is used for exchanging data between devices placed over short distances (up to 240 meters). This is a booming technology that is easily and freely available and has no dependency on network operators. Our study work proposes a smart system to enable conference calls with more than two mobile users without SIM support to communicate with each other simultaneously. The AI-based proposed solution will be self–governed, self-learned and will be intelligent enough to smartly switch between all callers connected via Bluetooth in a conference call. This proposed solution system will greatly increase the potential of using Bluetooth technology from a wider applicability perspective of conference calls, which is currently only possible over LTE mobiles.

Keywords: conference call, bluetooth, AI, frequency hopping, piconet, scatter net

Procedia PDF Downloads 50
2711 Mechanical Properties of Sugar Palm Fibre Reinforced Thermoplastic Polyurethane Composites

Authors: Dandi Bachtiar, Mohammed Ausama Abbas, Januar Parlaungan Siregar, Mohd Ruzaimi Bin Mat Rejab

Abstract:

Short sugar palm fibre and thermoplastic polyurethane were combined to produce new composites by using the extrude method. Two techniques used to prepare a new composite material, firstly, extrusion of the base material with short fibre, secondly hot pressing them. The size of sugar palm fibre was fixed at 250µm. Different weight percent (10 wt%, 20 wt% and 30 wt%) were used in order to optimise preparation process. The optimization of process depended on the characterization mechanical properties such as impact, tensile, and flexural of the new (TPU/SPF) composite material. The results proved that best tensile and impact properties of weight additive fibre applied 10 wt%. There was an increasing trend recorded of flexural properties during increased the fibre loading. Meanwhile, the maximum tensile strength was 14.0 MPa at 10 wt% of the fibre. Moreover, there was no significant effect for additions more than 30 wt% of the fibre.

Keywords: composites, natural fibre, polyurethane, sugar palm

Procedia PDF Downloads 356
2710 Determining Factors Influencing the Total Funding in Islamic Banking of Indonesia

Authors: Euphrasia Susy Suhendra, Lies Handrijaningsih

Abstract:

The banking sector as an intermediary party or intermediaries occupies a very important position in bridging the needs of working capital investment in the real sector with funds owner. This will certainly make money more effectively to improve the economic value added. As an intermediary, Islamic banks raise funds from the public and then distribute in the form of financing. In practice, the distribution of funding that is run by Islamic Banking is not as easy as, in theory, because, in fact, there are many financing problems; some are caused by lacking the assessment and supervision of banks to customers. This study aims to analyze the influence of the Third Party Funds, Return on Assets (ROA), Non Performing Financing (NPF), and Financing Deposit Ratio (FDR) to Total Financing provided to the Community by Islamic Banks in Indonesia. The data used is monthly data released by Bank of Indonesia in Islamic Banking Statistics in the time period of January 2009 - December 2013. This study uses cointegration test to see the long-term relationship, and use error correction models to examine the relationship of short-term. The results of this study indicate that the Third Party Fund has a short-term effect on total funding, Return on Assets has a long term effect on the total financing, Non Performing Financing has long-term effects of total financing, and Financing deposit ratio has the effect of short-term and long-term of the total financing provided by Islamic Banks in Indonesia.

Keywords: Islamic banking, third party fund, return on asset, non-performing financing, financing deposit ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 431
2709 Thermal Securing of Electrical Contacts inside Oil Power Transformers

Authors: Ioan Rusu

Abstract:

In the operation of power transformers of 110 kV/MV from substations, these are traveled by fault current resulting from MV line damage. Defect electrical contacts are heated when they are travelled from fault currents. In the case of high temperatures when 135 °C is reached, the electrical insulating oil in the vicinity of the electrical faults comes into contact with these contacts releases gases, and activates the electrical protection. To avoid auto-flammability of electro-insulating oil, we designed a security system thermal of electrical contact defects by pouring fire-resistant polyurethane foam, mastic or mortar fire inside a cardboard electro-insulating cylinder. From practical experience, in the exploitation of power transformers of 110 kV/MT in oil electro-insulating were recorded some passing disconnecting commanded by the gas protection at internal defects. In normal operation and in the optimal load, nominal currents do not require thermal secure contacts inside electrical transformers, contacts are made at the fabrication according to the projects or to repair by solder. In the case of external short circuits close to the substation, the contacts inside electrical transformers, even if they are well made in sizes of Rcontact = 10‑6 Ω, are subjected to short-circuit currents of the order of 10 kA-20 kA which lead to the dissipation of some significant second-order electric powers, 100 W-400 W, on contact. At some internal or external factors which action on electrical contacts, including electrodynamic efforts at short-circuits, these factors could be degraded over time to values in the range of 10-4 Ω to 10-5 Ω and if the action time of protection is great, on the order of seconds, power dissipation on electrical contacts achieve high values of 1,0 kW to 40,0 kW. This power leads to strong local heating, hundreds of degrees Celsius and can initiate self-ignition and burning oil in the vicinity of electro-insulating contacts with action the gas relay. Degradation of electrical contacts inside power transformers may not be limited for the duration of their operation. In order to avoid oil burn with gas release near electrical contacts, at short-circuit currents 10 kA-20 kA, we have outlined the following solutions: covering electrical contacts in fireproof materials that would avoid direct burn oil at short circuit and transmission of heat from electrical contact along the conductors with heat dissipation gradually over time, in a large volume of cooling. Flame retardant materials are: polyurethane foam, mastic, cement (concrete). In the normal condition of operation of transformer, insulating of conductors coils is with paper and insulating oil. Ignition points of its two components respectively are approximated: 135 °C heat for oil and 200 0C for paper. In the case of a faulty electrical contact, about 10-3 Ω, at short-circuit; the temperature can reach for a short time, a value of 300 °C-400 °C, which ignite the paper and also the oil. By burning oil, there are local gases that disconnect the power transformer. Securing thermal electrical contacts inside the transformer, in cardboard tube with polyurethane foams, mastik or cement, ensures avoiding gas release and also gas protection working.

Keywords: power transformer, oil insulatation, electric contacts, Bucholtz relay

Procedia PDF Downloads 132
2708 Fault Diagnosis in Induction Motors Using the Discrete Wavelet Transform

Authors: Khaled Yahia

Abstract:

This paper deals with the problem of stator faults diagnosis in induction motors. Using the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) for the current Park’s vector modulus (CPVM) analysis, the inter-turn short-circuit faults diagnosis can be achieved. This method is based on the decomposition of the CPVM signal, where wavelet approximation and detail coefficients of this signal have been extracted. The energy evaluation of a known bandwidth detail permits to define a fault severity factor (FSF). This method has been tested through the simulation of an induction motor using a mathematical model based on the winding-function approach. Simulation, as well as experimental, results show the effectiveness of the used method.

Keywords: induction motors (IMs), inter-turn short-circuits diagnosis, discrete wavelet transform (DWT), current park’s vector modulus (CPVM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 536
2707 The Relationships between Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions, Energy Consumption, and GDP for Turkey: Time Series Analysis, 1980-2010

Authors: Jinhoa Lee

Abstract:

The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of CO2 emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, electricity), carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Turkey using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Phillips–Perron (PP) test for stationarity, Johansen maximum likelihood method for cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. All the variables in this study show very strong significant effects on GDP in the country for the long term. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests negative long-run causalities from consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil, coal and natural gas to GDP. Conversely, positive impacts of CO2 emissions and electricity consumption on GDP are found to be significant in Turkey during the period. There exists a short-run bidirectional relationship between electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. There exists a positive unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to natural gas consumption, while there exists a negative unidirectional causality running from natural gas consumption to electricity consumption. Moreover, GDP has a negative effect on electricity consumption in Turkey in the short run. Overall, the results support arguments that there are relationships among environmental quality, energy use and economic output but the associations can to be differed by the sources of energy in the case of Turkey over of period 1980-2010.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, Turkey, time series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 488
2706 Identification of Vessel Class with Long Short-Term Memory Using Kinematic Features in Maritime Traffic Control

Authors: Davide Fuscà, Kanan Rahimli, Roberto Leuzzi

Abstract:

Preventing abuse and illegal activities in a given area of the sea is a very difficult and expensive task. Artificial intelligence offers the possibility to implement new methods to identify the vessel class type from the kinematic features of the vessel itself. The task strictly depends on the quality of the data. This paper explores the application of a deep, long short-term memory model by using AIS flow only with a relatively low quality. The proposed model reaches high accuracy on detecting nine vessel classes representing the most common vessel types in the Ionian-Adriatic Sea. The model has been applied during the Adriatic-Ionian trial period of the international EU ANDROMEDA H2020 project to identify vessels performing behaviors far from the expected one depending on the declared type.

Keywords: maritime surveillance, artificial intelligence, behavior analysis, LSTM

Procedia PDF Downloads 199
2705 Two-Channels Thermal Energy Storage Tank: Experiments and Short-Cut Modelling

Authors: M. Capocelli, A. Caputo, M. De Falco, D. Mazzei, V. Piemonte

Abstract:

This paper presents the experimental results and the related modeling of a thermal energy storage (TES) facility, ideated and realized by ENEA and realizing the thermocline with an innovative geometry. Firstly, the thermal energy exchange model of an equivalent shell & tube heat exchanger is described and tested to reproduce the performance of the spiral exchanger installed in the TES. Through the regression of the experimental data, a first-order thermocline model was also validated to provide an analytical function of the thermocline, useful for the performance evaluation and the comparison with other systems and implementation in simulations of integrated systems (e.g. power plants). The experimental data obtained from the plant start-up and the short-cut modeling of the system can be useful for the process analysis, for the scale-up of the thermal storage system and to investigate the feasibility of its implementation in actual case-studies.

Keywords: CSP plants, thermal energy storage, thermocline, mathematical modelling, experimental data

Procedia PDF Downloads 296
2704 A Virtual Electrode through Summation of Time Offset Pulses

Authors: Isaac Cassar, Trevor Davis, Yi-Kai Lo, Wentai Liu

Abstract:

Retinal prostheses have been successful in eliciting visual responses in implanted subjects. As these prostheses progress, one of their major limitations is the need for increased resolution. As an alternative to increasing the number of electrodes, virtual electrodes may be used to increase the effective resolution of current electrode arrays. This paper presents a virtual electrode technique based upon time-offsets between stimuli. Two adjacent electrodes are stimulated with identical pulses with too short of pulse widths to activate a neuron, but one has a time offset of one pulse width. A virtual electrode of twice the pulse width was then shown to appear in the center, with a total width capable of activating a neuron. This can be used in retinal implants by stimulating electrodes with pulse widths short enough to not elicit responses in neurons, but with their combined pulse width adequate to activate a neuron in between them.

Keywords: electrical stimulation, neuroprosthesis, retinal implant, retinal prosthesis, virtual electrode

Procedia PDF Downloads 269
2703 Nexus of Pakistan Stock Exchange with World's Top Five Stock Markets after Launching China Pakistan Economic Corridor

Authors: Abdul Rauf, Xiaoxing Liu, Waqas Amin

Abstract:

Stock markets are fascinating more and more conductive to each other due to liberalization and globalization trends in recent years. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has dragged Pakistan stock exchange to the new heights and global investors are making investments to reap its benefits. So, in investors and government perspective, the study focuses co-integration of Pakistan stock exchange with world’s five big economies i-e US, China, England, Japan, and France. The time period of study is seven years i-e 2010 to 2016 and daily values of major indices of corresponding stock exchanges collected. All variables of that particular study are stationary at first difference confirmed by unit root test. The study Johansen system co integration test for analysis of data along with Granger causality test is performed for result purpose. Co integration test asserted that Pakistan stock exchange integrated with Shanghai stock exchange (SSE) and NIKKEI stock exchange in short run. Granger causality test also proclaimed these results. But NASDAQ, FTSE, DAX not co integrated and Granger cause at a short run but long run these markets are bonded with Pakistan stock exchange (KSE). VECM also confirmed this liaison in short and long run. Investors, therefore, need to be updated regarding co-integration of world’s stock exchanges to ensure well diversified and risk adjusted high returns. Equally, governments also need updated status so that they could reduce co-integration through multiple steps and hence drag investors for diversified investment.

Keywords: CPEC, DAX, FTSE, liberalization, NASDAQ, NIKKEI, SSE, stock markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 274
2702 Fault Diagnosis in Induction Motors Using Discrete Wavelet Transform

Authors: K. Yahia, A. Titaouine, A. Ghoggal, S. E. Zouzou, F. Benchabane

Abstract:

This paper deals with the problem of stator faults diagnosis in induction motors. Using the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) for the current Park’s vector modulus (CPVM) analysis, the inter-turn short-circuit faults diagnosis can be achieved. This method is based on the decomposition of the CPVM signal, where wavelet approximation and detail coefficients of this signal have been extracted. The energy evaluation of a known bandwidth detail permits to define a fault severity factor (FSF). This method has been tested through the simulation of an induction motor using a mathematical model based on the winding-function approach. Simulation, as well as experimental, results show the effectiveness of the used method.

Keywords: Induction Motors (IMs), inter-turn short-circuits diagnosis, Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), Current Park’s Vector Modulus (CPVM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 521
2701 A High Performance Piano Note Recognition Scheme via Precise Onset Detection and Segmented Short-Time Fourier Transform

Authors: Sonali Banrjee, Swarup Kumar Mitra, Aritra Acharyya

Abstract:

A piano note recognition method has been proposed by the authors in this paper. The authors have used a comprehensive method for onset detection of each note present in a piano piece followed by segmented short-time Fourier transform (STFT) for the identification of piano notes. The performance evaluation of the proposed method has been carried out in different harsh noisy environments by adding different levels of additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) having different signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in the original signal and evaluating the note detection error rate (NDER) of different piano pieces consisting of different number of notes at different SNR levels. The NDER is found to be remained within 15% for all piano pieces under consideration when the SNR is kept above 8 dB.

Keywords: AWGN, onset detection, piano note, STFT

Procedia PDF Downloads 140
2700 Is the Okun's Law Valid in Tunisia?

Authors: El Andari Chifaa, Bouaziz Rached

Abstract:

The central focus of this paper was to check whether the Okun’s law in Tunisia is valid or not. For this purpose, we have used quarterly time series data during the period 1990Q1-2014Q1. Firstly, we applied the error correction model instead of the difference version of Okun's Law, the Engle-Granger and Johansen test are employed to find out long run association between unemployment, production, and how error correction mechanism (ECM) is used for short run dynamic. Secondly, we used the gap version of Okun’s law where the estimation is done from three band pass filters which are mathematical tools used in macro-economic and especially in business cycles theory. The finding of the study indicates that the inverse relationship between unemployment and output is verified in the short and long term, and the Okun's law holds for the Tunisian economy, but with an Okun’s coefficient lower than required. Therefore, our empirical results have important implications for structural and cyclical policymakers in Tunisia to promote economic growth in a context of lower unemployment growth.

Keywords: Okun’s law, validity, unit root, cointegration, error correction model, bandpass filters

Procedia PDF Downloads 290
2699 The Relationships between Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions, Energy Consumption and GDP per capita for Oman: Time Series Analysis, 1980–2010

Authors: Jinhoa Lee

Abstract:

The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of CO2 emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfil the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Oman using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test for stationary, Johansen maximum likelihood method for co-integration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. All the variables in this study show very strong significant effects on GDP in the country for the long term. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests positive long-run causalities from CO2 emissions to GDP. Conversely, negative impacts of energy consumption on GDP are found to be significant in Oman during the period. In the short run, there exist negative unidirectional causalities among GDP, CO2 emissions and energy consumption running from GDP to CO2 emissions and from energy consumption to CO2 emissions. Overall, the results support arguments that there are relationships among environmental quality, energy use and economic output in Oman over of period 1980-2010.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, Oman, time series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 433
2698 Distributed Generation Connection to the Network: Obtaining Stability Using Transient Behavior

Authors: A. Hadadi, M. Abdollahi, A. Dustmohammadi

Abstract:

The growing use of DGs in distribution networks provide many advantages and also cause new problems which should be anticipated and be solved with appropriate solutions. One of the problems is transient voltage drop and short circuit in the electrical network, in the presence of distributed generation - which can lead to instability. The appearance of the short circuit will cause loss of generator synchronism, even though if it would be able to recover synchronizing mode after removing faulty generator, it will be stable. In order to increase system reliability and generator lifetime, some strategies should be planned to apply even in some situations which a fault prevent generators from separation. In this paper, one fault current limiter is installed due to prevent DGs separation from the grid when fault occurs. Furthermore, an innovative objective function is applied to determine the impedance optimal amount of fault current limiter in order to improve transient stability of distributed generation. Fault current limiter can prevent generator rotor's sudden acceleration after fault occurrence and thereby improve the network transient stability by reducing the current flow in a fast and effective manner. In fact, by applying created impedance by fault current limiter when a short circuit happens on the path of current injection DG to the fault location, the critical fault clearing time improve remarkably. Therefore, protective relay has more time to clear fault and isolate the fault zone without any instability. Finally, different transient scenarios of connection plan sustainability of small scale synchronous generators to the distribution network are presented.

Keywords: critical clearing time, fault current limiter, synchronous generator, transient stability, transient states

Procedia PDF Downloads 163
2697 An Analysis of the Impact of Government Budget Deficits on Economic Performance. A Zimbabwean Perspective

Authors: Tafadzwa Shumba, Rose C. Nyatondo, Regret Sunge

Abstract:

This research analyses the impact of budget deficits on the economic performance of Zimbabwe. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) confines testing method to co-integration and long-run estimation using time series data from 1980-2018. The Augmented Dick Fuller (ADF) and the Granger approach were used to testing for stationarity and causality among the factors. Co-integration test results affirm a long term association between GDP development rate and descriptive factors. Causality test results show a unidirectional connection between budget shortfall to GDP development and bi-directional causality amid debt and budget deficit. This study also found unidirectional causality from debt to GDP growth rate. ARDL estimates indicate a significantly positive long term and significantly negative short term impact of budget shortfall on GDP. This suggests that budget deficits have a short-run growth retarding effect and a long-run growth-inducing effect. The long-run results follow the Keynesian theory that posits that fiscal deficits result in an increase in GDP growth. Short-run outcomes follow the neoclassical theory. In light of these findings, the government is recommended to minimize financing of recurrent expenditure using a budget deficit. To achieve sustainable growth and development, the government needs to spend an absorbable budget deficit focusing on capital projects such as the development of human capital and infrastructure.

Keywords: ARDL, budget deficit, economic performance, long run

Procedia PDF Downloads 61
2696 Performance of Segmented Thermoelectric Materials Using 'Open-Short Circuit' Technique under Different Polarity

Authors: N. H. S. Mustafa, N. M. Yatim

Abstract:

Thermoelectric materials arrange in segmented design could increase the conversion of heat to electricity performance. This is due to the properties of materials that perform peak at narrow temperature range. Performance of the materials determines by dimensionless figure-of-merit, ZT which consist of thermoelectric properties namely Seebeck coefficient, electrical resistivity, and thermal conductivity. Since different materials were arrange in segmented, determination of ZT cannot be measured using the conventional approach. Therefore, this research used 'open-short circuit' technique to measure the segmented performance. Segmented thermoelectric materials consist of bismuth telluride, and lead telluride was segmented together under cold press technique. The results show thermoelectric properties measured is comparable with calculated based on commercially available of individual material. Performances of segmented sample under different polarity also indicate dependability of material with position and temperature. Segmented materials successfully measured under real condition and optimization of the segmented can be designed from the study of polarity change.

Keywords: thermoelectric, segmented, ZT, polarity, performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 167
2695 Short-Term Forecast of Wind Turbine Production with Machine Learning Methods: Direct Approach and Indirect Approach

Authors: Mamadou Dione, Eric Matzner-lober, Philippe Alexandre

Abstract:

The Energy Transition Act defined by the French State has precise implications on Renewable Energies, in particular on its remuneration mechanism. Until then, a purchase obligation contract permitted the sale of wind-generated electricity at a fixed rate. Tomorrow, it will be necessary to sell this electricity on the Market (at variable rates) before obtaining additional compensation intended to reduce the risk. This sale on the market requires to announce in advance (about 48 hours before) the production that will be delivered on the network, so to be able to predict (in the short term) this production. The fundamental problem remains the variability of the Wind accentuated by the geographical situation. The objective of the project is to provide, every day, short-term forecasts (48-hour horizon) of wind production using weather data. The predictions of the GFS model and those of the ECMWF model are used as explanatory variables. The variable to be predicted is the production of a wind farm. We do two approaches: a direct approach that predicts wind generation directly from weather data, and an integrated approach that estimâtes wind from weather data and converts it into wind power by power curves. We used machine learning techniques to predict this production. The models tested are random forests, CART + Bagging, CART + Boosting, SVM (Support Vector Machine). The application is made on a wind farm of 22MW (11 wind turbines) of the Compagnie du Vent (that became Engie Green France). Our results are very conclusive compared to the literature.

Keywords: forecast aggregation, machine learning, spatio-temporal dynamics modeling, wind power forcast

Procedia PDF Downloads 186
2694 Optimization of a High-Growth Investment Portfolio for the South African Market Using Predictive Analytics

Authors: Mia Françoise

Abstract:

This report aims to develop a strategy for assisting short-term investors to benefit from the current economic climate in South Africa by utilizing technical analysis techniques and predictive analytics. As part of this research, value investing and technical analysis principles will be combined to maximize returns for South African investors while optimizing volatility. As an emerging market, South Africa offers many opportunities for high growth in sectors where other developed countries cannot grow at the same rate. Investing in South African companies with significant growth potential can be extremely rewarding. Although the risk involved is more significant in countries with less developed markets and infrastructure, there is more room for growth in these countries. According to recent research, the offshore market is expected to outperform the local market over the long term; however, short-term investments in the local market will likely be more profitable, as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is predicted to outperform the S&P500 over the short term. The instabilities in the economy contribute to increased market volatility, which can benefit investors if appropriately utilized. Price prediction and portfolio optimization comprise the two primary components of this methodology. As part of this process, statistics and other predictive modeling techniques will be used to predict the future performance of stocks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Following predictive data analysis, Modern Portfolio Theory, based on Markowitz's Mean-Variance Theorem, will be applied to optimize the allocation of assets within an investment portfolio. By combining different assets within an investment portfolio, this optimization method produces a portfolio with an optimal ratio of expected risk to expected return. This methodology aims to provide a short-term investment with a stock portfolio that offers the best risk-to-return profile for stocks listed on the JSE by combining price prediction and portfolio optimization.

Keywords: financial stocks, optimized asset allocation, prediction modelling, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 65
2693 Financial Development, Institutional Quality and Environmental Conditions in the Middle East and North Africa Region: Evidence From Oil- And Non-oil-Producing Countries

Authors: Jamel Boukhatem, Semia Rachid, Marmar Nasr

Abstract:

Considering the differences between oil- and non-oil-producing countries, this paper aims to evaluate the impact of financial development (FD) and institutional quality (IQ) on CO2 emissions in 15 MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries over the period 1996-2018 using the Panel ARDL approach. We found evidence to support an unconditional long run effect of FD on environmental conditions (EC), with quite significant differences between the two groups of countries. While FD leads to environmental degradation (ED) in non-oil-producing countries, it helps protect the environment in oil-producing ones. Regarding the effects of IQ on EC, they are not significant in both short- and long run for non-oil-producing countries, but they are significant for oil-producing ones only in the long run. In the short run, IQ indicators haven’t significant effects on EC for the two groups of countries.

Keywords: financial development, institutional quality, environmental conditions, Panel ARDL

Procedia PDF Downloads 49
2692 Induction Motor Stator Fault Analysis Using Phase-Angle and Magnitude of the Line Currents Spectra

Authors: Ahmed Hamida Boudinar, Noureddine Benouzza, Azeddine Bendiabdellah, Mohamed El Amine Khodja

Abstract:

This paper describes a new diagnosis approach for identification of the progressive stator winding inter-turn short-circuit fault in induction motor. This approach is based on a simple monitoring of the combined information related to both magnitude and phase-angle obtained from the fundamental by the three line currents frequency analysis. In addition, to simplify the interpretation and analysis of the data; a new graphical tool based on a triangular representation is suggested. This representation, depending on its size, enables to visualize in a simple and clear manner, the existence of the stator inter-turn short-circuit fault and its discrimination with respect to a healthy stator. Experimental results show well the benefit and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: induction motor, magnitude, phase-angle, spectral analysis, stator fault

Procedia PDF Downloads 333
2691 Multi-Indicator Evaluation of Agricultural Drought Trends in Ethiopia: Implications for Dry Land Agriculture and Food Security

Authors: Dawd Ahmed, Venkatesh Uddameri

Abstract:

Agriculture in Ethiopia is the main economic sector influenced by agricultural drought. A simultaneous assessment of drought trends using multiple drought indicators is useful for drought planning and management. Intra-season and seasonal drought trends in Ethiopia were studied using a suite of drought indicators. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and Z-index for long-rainy, dry, and short-rainy seasons are used to identify drought-causing mechanisms. The Statistical software package R version 3.5.2 was used for data extraction and data analyses. Trend analysis indicated shifts in late-season long-rainy season precipitation into dry in the southwest and south-central portions of Ethiopia. Droughts during the dry season (October–January) were largely temperature controlled. Short-term temperature-controlled hydrologic processes exacerbated rainfall deficits during the short rainy season (February–May) and highlight the importance of temperature- and hydrology-induced soil dryness on the production of short-season crops such as tef. Droughts during the long-rainy season (June–September) were largely driven by precipitation declines arising from the narrowing of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Increased dryness during long-rainy season had severe consequences on the production of corn and sorghum. PDSI was an aggressive indicator of seasonal droughts suggesting the low natural resilience to combat the effects of slow-acting, moisture-depleting hydrologic processes. The lack of irrigation systems in the nation limits the ability to combat droughts and improve agricultural resilience. There is an urgent need to monitor soil moisture (a key agro-hydrologic variable) to better quantify the impacts of meteorological droughts on agricultural systems in Ethiopia.

Keywords: autocorrelation, climate change, droughts, Ethiopia, food security, palmer z-index, PDSI, SPEI, SPI, trend analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
2690 A Comparative Analysis of Hyper-Parameters Using Neural Networks for E-Mail Spam Detection

Authors: Syed Mahbubuz Zaman, A. B. M. Abrar Haque, Mehedi Hassan Nayeem, Misbah Uddin Sagor

Abstract:

Everyday e-mails are being used by millions of people as an effective form of communication over the Internet. Although e-mails allow high-speed communication, there is a constant threat known as spam. Spam e-mail is often called junk e-mails which are unsolicited and sent in bulk. These unsolicited emails cause security concerns among internet users because they are being exposed to inappropriate content. There is no guaranteed way to stop spammers who use static filters as they are bypassed very easily. In this paper, a smart system is proposed that will be using neural networks to approach spam in a different way, and meanwhile, this will also detect the most relevant features that will help to design the spam filter. Also, a comparison of different parameters for different neural network models has been shown to determine which model works best within suitable parameters.

Keywords: long short-term memory, bidirectional long short-term memory, gated recurrent unit, natural language processing, natural language processing

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2689 Data Refinement Enhances The Accuracy of Short-Term Traffic Latency Prediction

Authors: Man Fung Ho, Lap So, Jiaqi Zhang, Yuheng Zhao, Huiyang Lu, Tat Shing Choi, K. Y. Michael Wong

Abstract:

Nowadays, a tremendous amount of data is available in the transportation system, enabling the development of various machine learning approaches to make short-term latency predictions. A natural question is then the choice of relevant information to enable accurate predictions. Using traffic data collected from the Taiwan Freeway System, we consider the prediction of short-term latency of a freeway segment with a length of 17 km covering 5 measurement points, each collecting vehicle-by-vehicle data through the electronic toll collection system. The processed data include the past latencies of the freeway segment with different time lags, the traffic conditions of the individual segments (the accumulations, the traffic fluxes, the entrance and exit rates), the total accumulations, and the weekday latency profiles obtained by Gaussian process regression of past data. We arrive at several important conclusions about how data should be refined to obtain accurate predictions, which have implications for future system-wide latency predictions. (1) We find that the prediction of median latency is much more accurate and meaningful than the prediction of average latency, as the latter is plagued by outliers. This is verified by machine-learning prediction using XGBoost that yields a 35% improvement in the mean square error of the 5-minute averaged latencies. (2) We find that the median latency of the segment 15 minutes ago is a very good baseline for performance comparison, and we have evidence that further improvement is achieved by machine learning approaches such as XGBoost and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). (3) By analyzing the feature importance score in XGBoost and calculating the mutual information between the inputs and the latencies to be predicted, we identify a sequence of inputs ranked in importance. It confirms that the past latencies are most informative of the predicted latencies, followed by the total accumulation, whereas inputs such as the entrance and exit rates are uninformative. It also confirms that the inputs are much less informative of the average latencies than the median latencies. (4) For predicting the latencies of segments composed of two or three sub-segments, summing up the predicted latencies of each sub-segment is more accurate than the one-step prediction of the whole segment, especially with the latency prediction of the downstream sub-segments trained to anticipate latencies several minutes ahead. The duration of the anticipation time is an increasing function of the traveling time of the upstream segment. The above findings have important implications to predicting the full set of latencies among the various locations in the freeway system.

Keywords: data refinement, machine learning, mutual information, short-term latency prediction

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2688 Understanding Mudrocks and Their Shear Strength Deterioration Associated with Inundation

Authors: Haslinda Nahazanan, Afshin Asadi, Zainuddin Md. Yusoff, Nik Nor Syahariati Nik Daud

Abstract:

Mudrocks is considered as a problematic material due to their unexpected behaviour specifically when they are contacting with water or being exposed to the atmosphere. Many instability problems of cutting slopes were found lying on high slaking mudrocks. It has become one of the major concerns to geotechnical engineer as mudrocks cover up to 50% of sedimentary rocks in the geologic records. Mudrocks display properties between soils and rocks which can be very hard to understand. Therefore, this paper aims to review the definition, mineralogy, geo-chemistry, classification and engineering properties of mudrocks. As water has become one of the major factors that will rapidly change the behaviour of mudrocks, a review on the shear strength of mudrocks in Derbyshire has been made using a fully automated hydraulic stress path testing system under three states: dry, short-term inundated and long-term inundated. It can be seen that the strength of mudrocks has deteriorated as it condition changed from dry to short-term inundated and finally to long-term inundated.

Keywords: mudrocks, sedimentary rocks, inundation, shear strength

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2687 Long Short-Time Memory Neural Networks for Human Driving Behavior Modelling

Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

Abstract:

In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

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2686 Forecasting Nokoué Lake Water Levels Using Long Short-Term Memory Network

Authors: Namwinwelbere Dabire, Eugene C. Ezin, Adandedji M. Firmin

Abstract:

The prediction of hydrological flows (rainfall-depth or rainfall-discharge) is becoming increasingly important in the management of hydrological risks such as floods. In this study, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a state-of-the-art algorithm dedicated to time series, is applied to predict the daily water level of Nokoue Lake in Benin. This paper aims to provide an effective and reliable method enable of reproducing the future daily water level of Nokoue Lake, which is influenced by a combination of two phenomena: rainfall and river flow (runoff from the Ouémé River, the Sô River, the Porto-Novo lagoon, and the Atlantic Ocean). Performance analysis based on the forecasting horizon indicates that LSTM can predict the water level of Nokoué Lake up to a forecast horizon of t+10 days. Performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) agree on a forecast horizon of up to t+3 days. The values of these metrics remain stable for forecast horizons of t+1 days, t+2 days, and t+3 days. The values of R² and NSE are greater than 0.97 during the training and testing phases in the Nokoué Lake basin. Based on the evaluation indices used to assess the model's performance for the appropriate forecast horizon of water level in the Nokoué Lake basin, the forecast horizon of t+3 days is chosen for predicting future daily water levels.

Keywords: forecasting, long short-term memory cell, recurrent artificial neural network, Nokoué lake

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2685 A Critical Look on Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats Method Based on Different Mechanisms

Authors: R. Sulakshana, R. Lakshmi

Abstract:

Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats, CRISPR associate (CRISPR/Cas) is an adaptive immunity system found in bacteria and archaea. It has been modified to serve as a potent gene editing tool. Moreover, it has found widespread use in the field of genome research because of its accessibility and low cost. Several bioinformatics methods have been created to aid in the construction of specific single guide RNA (sgRNA), which is highly active and crucial to CRISPR/Cas performance. Various Cas proteins, including Cas1, Cas2, Cas9, and Cas12, have been used to create genome engineering tools because of their programmable sequence specificity. Class 1 and 2 CRISPR/Cas systems, as well as the processes of all known Cas proteins (including Cas9 and Cas12), are discussed in this review paper. In addition, the various CRISPR methodologies and their tools so far discovered are discussed. Finally, the challenges and issues in the CRISPR system along with future works, are presented.

Keywords: gene editing tool, Cas proteins, CRISPR, guideRNA, programmable sequence

Procedia PDF Downloads 67