Search results for: risk information weight (RIW)

Authors: S. Valarmathi, P. B. Harathi, R. Sridhar, S. Balasubramanian

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Machine learning tools in medical diagnosis is increasing due to the improved effectiveness of classification and recognition systems to help medical experts in diagnosing breast cancer. In this study, ID3 chooses the splitting attribute with the highest gain in information, where gain is defined as the difference between before the split versus after the split. It is applied for age, location, taluk, stage, year, period, martial status, treatment, heredity, sex, and habitat against Very Serious (VS), Very Serious Moderate (VSM), Serious (S) and Not Serious (NS) to calculate the gain of information. The ranked histogram gives the gain of each field for the breast cancer data. The doctors use TNM staging which will decide the risk level of the breast cancer and play an important decision making field in fuzzy logic for perception based measurement. Spatial risk area (taluk) of the breast cancer is calculated. Result clearly states that Coimbatore (North and South) was found to be risk region to the breast cancer than other areas at 20% criteria. Weighted value of taluk was compared with criterion value and integrated with Map Object to visualize the results. ID3 algorithm shows the high breast cancer risk regions in the study area. The study has outlined, discussed and resolved the algorithms, techniques / methods adopted through soft computing methodology like ID3 algorithm for prognostic decision making in the seriousness of the breast cancer.

Keywords: ID3 algorithm, breast cancer, fuzzy logic, MATLAB

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Authors: M. I. Oshimagye, V. O. Ayuba, P. A. Annune

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The effect of Sublethal Concentrations of Parkia biglobosa pod extract on the growth and survival of Clarias gariepinus juveniles (mean weight 32.73g ± 0.0) were investigated under laboratory conditions for 8 weeks using the static renewal and continuous aeration system. Statistical analysis showed that fish exposed to various concentrations had significantly lower (P<0.05) growth rate than the control groups. The reduction in growth was observed to be directly proportional to increase in concentration. However, at 50 mg/L no significant depression in weight was observed.

Keywords: Clarias gariepinus, Parkia biglobosa, pod, weight

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Authors: Salaam Mujeeb, Adeola Segun, Abdullahi Olasunkanmi

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Dementia is becoming a major concern as the world population is increasing and elderly populations are being neglected. Liver and kidney Diseases have been implicated as risk factors in the etiology of Dementia. This study, therefore, evaluates the plasma Gamma Glutamyl Transferase (GGT) activity and plasma Electrolytes in other to find an association between the biomarkers and Dementia. The subjects (38) were age and sex-matched with their corresponding controls and structured questionnaires were used to obtain medical information. Using spectrophotometric and ion selective Electrode techniques respectively, we found and elevated GGT activity in the Dementia Subjects. Remarkably, no association was found between the plasma Electrolytes level and Dementia subjects. It was also observed that severity of Dementia worsens with age. Moreover, the condition of the dementia subjects worsens with reducing weight. Furthermore, the presence of Comorbidity e.g. Hypertension, Obesity, Diabetes and Habits like Smoking, Drugs and Alcohol consumption interferes with Electrolyte balance. Weight loss monitoring and IBM check are advised in Elderly individuals particularly females as they may be inductive of early or future cognitive impairments. Therefore, it might be useful as an early detection tool. Government and society should invest more on the Geriatric population by establishing Old people's home and providing social care services.

Keywords: clinical characteristics, dementia, electrolytes, gamma glutamyl transpeptidase, GGT

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Authors: Maha Mourad

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Higher education in any competitive European economy should serve the new information society by increasing the supply of good quality education services and by creating good international brands in the international higher education market. Hence, continuous risk management techniques through higher educational reforms programs became one of the top priorities within the European Union to control the quality of higher education. Risk is higher education is studies by several researchers who agreed that the risk in higher education has a direct influence on continuity of quality education and research contribution. The focus of this research is to highlights the Internal Quality Assurance (IQA) activities in the Polish higher education system as a risk management tool used to control the quality of education. This paper presents a qualitative empirical analysis in 5 different universities in Poland. In addition, it aims to help in finding global practical and create benchmark for policy makers concerning the risk management techniques based on the Polish experience.

Keywords: education development, quality assurance, sustainability, european higher education

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Authors: Isabella Lobo Sasaoka, Felipe Q. da Luz, Zubeyir Salis, Phillipa Hay, Tamiris Gaeta, Paula Costa Teixeira, Táki Cordás, Amanda Sainsbury

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Background: A significant number of people with obesity that seek weight loss treatments experience binge eating episodes. Nonetheless, it is unknown whether binge eating episodes can hinder weight loss outcomes. Objective: To compare weight change in people with or without binge eating submitted to bariatric surgery, pharmacotherapy, nutritional orientation, and/or psychological therapies. Method: We conducted a systematic review with meta-analyses by searching studies in PubMed, American Psychological Association (APA), and Embase. Results: Thirty-four studies were included in our systematic review, and 17 studies were included in the meta-analyses. Overall, we found no significant difference in weight loss between people with or without binge eating submitted to any type of weight loss treatment. Additionally, we found no statistically significant differences in body weight between people with or without binge eating at short and long follow-up assessments following any type of weight loss treatment. We also examined changes in body weight in people with or without binge eating in three additional meta-analyses categorized by the type of weight loss treatment (i.e., behavioural and/or nutritional interventions; bariatric surgery; pharmacotherapy isolated or combined with behavior interventions) and found no difference in weight loss. Eleven out of the 17 studies that were assessed qualitatively (i.e., not included in meta-analyses) did not show differences in weight loss in people with or without binge eating submitted to any type of weight loss treatment. Conclusion: This systematic review with meta-analyses showed no difference in weight loss in people with or without binge eating submitted to a variety of weight loss treatments. Nonetheless, specialized therapies can be required to address eating disorder psychopathology and recurrent binge eating in people with obesity that seek weight loss.

Keywords: obesity, binge eating, weight loss, systematic review, meta-analysis

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Authors: Mathias Linden, André Schneider, Harald F. O. von Korflesch

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The risk of train accidents is an ongoing concern for railway organizations, governments, insurance companies and other depended sectors. Safety technologies are installed to reduce and to prevent potential damages of train accidents. Since the budgetary for the safety of railway organizations is limited, it is necessary not only to achieve a high availability and high safety standard but also to be cost effective. Therefore, an economic assessment of safety technologies is fundamental to create an accurate risk analysis. In order to conduct an economical assessment of a railway safety technology and a quantification of the costs of the accident causes, the Global Railway Accident Database & Evaluation (GRADE) has been developed. The aim of this paper is to describe the structure of this accident database and to show how it can be used for risk analyses. A number of risk analysis methods, such as the probabilistic safety assessment method (PSA), was used to demonstrate this accident database’s different possibilities of risk analysis. In conclusion, it can be noted that these analyses would not be as accurate without GRADE. The information gathered in the accident database was not available in this way before. Our findings are relevant for railway operators, safety technology suppliers, assurances, governments and other concerned railway organizations.

Keywords: accident causes, accident costs, accident database, global railway accident database & evaluation, GRADE, probabilistic safety assessment, PSA, railway accidents, risk analysis

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Authors: Nayera E. Hassan, Sahar A. El-Masry, Rokia El-Banna, Mohamed S. El Hussieny

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There are several different modalities for treatment of obesity. Common intervention methods for obesity include low-calorie diet, exercise. Also acupuncture has shown good therapeutic results in the treatment of obesity. A recent clinical observation showed that laser acupuncture could reduce body weight and body mass index in obese persons. So, the aim of this research is focused on body composition changes as related to type of intervention, before and after intentional weight loss in overweight and obesity. 76 subjects were included in the study analysis. The present study recommended that every obese female must do lipid profile and fasting blood sugar analysis before weight-loss intervention to take the decision of which method should be used.

Keywords: obesity, weight-loss, body composition, modalities

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Authors: Lívia Pinheiro Carvalho, Luciana Di Thommazo-Luporini, Rafael Luís Luporini, José Carlos Bonjorno Junior, Renata Pedrolongo Basso Vanelli, Manoel Carneiro de Oliveira Junior, Rodolfo de Paula Vieira, Renata Trimer, Renata G. Mendes, Mylène Aubertin-Leheudre, Audrey Borghi-Silva

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Rationale: Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and functional capacity in young obese and normal-weight people are associated with metabolic and cardiovascular diseases and mortality. However, it remains unclear whether their metabolically healthy (MH) or at risk (AR) phenotype influences cardiorespiratory fitness in this vulnerable population such as obese adults but also in normal-weight people. HOMA insulin resistance index (HI) and leptin-adiponectin ratio (LA) are strong markers for characterizing those phenotypes that we hypothesized to be associated with physical fitness. We also hypothesized that an easy and feasible exercise test could identify a subpopulation at risk to develop metabolic and related disorders. Methods: Thirty-nine sedentary men and women (20-45y; 18.530 kg.m-2) underwent a clinical evaluation, including the six-minute step test (ST), a well-validated and reliable test for young people. Body composition assessment was done by a tetrapolar bioimpedance in a fasting state and in the folicular phase for women. A maximal cardiopulmonary exercise testing, as well as the ST, evaluated the oxygen uptake at the peak of the test (VO2peak) by an ergospirometer Oxycon Mobile. Lipids, glucose, insulin were analysed and the ELISA method quantified the serum leptin and adiponectin from blood samples. Volunteers were divided in two groups: AR or MH according to a HI cutoff of 1.95, which was previously determined in the literature. T-test for comparison between groups, Pearson´s test to correlate main variables and ROC analysis for discriminating AR from up-and-down cycles in ST (SC) were applied (p<0.05). Results: Higher LA, fat mass (FM) and lower HDL, SC, leg lean mass (LM) and VO2peak were found in AR than in MH. Significant correlations were found between VO2peak and SC (r= 0.80) as well as between LA and FM (r=0.87), VO2peak (r=-0.73), and SC (r=-0.65). Area under de curve showed moderate accuracy (0.75) of SC <173 to discriminate AR phenotype. Conclusion: Our study found that at risk obese and normal-weight subjects showed an unhealthy metabolism as well as a poor CRF and functional daily activity capacity. Additionally, a simple and less costly functional test associated with above-mentioned aspects is able to identify ‘at risk’ subjects for primary intervention with important clinical and health implications.

Keywords: aerobic capacity, exercise, fitness, metabolism, obesity, 6MST

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Authors: Yinglisong, Jingge Chen, Jingxuan Chen, Yan Wang, Hui Huang, Jing Zhnag, Qianqian Zhang, Zhenzhen Zhang, Ji Zhang

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Purpose: The study aims to establish a nomogram prediction model for postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) in vaginal delivery. Patients and Methods: Clinical data were retrospectively collected from vaginal delivery patients admitted to a hospital in Zhengzhou, China, from June 1, 2022 - October 31, 2022. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to filter out independent risk factors. A nomogram model was established for PPH in vaginal delivery based on the risk factors coefficient. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. To assess discrimination and calibration, receiver operator characteristics (ROC) and calibration curves were generated in the derivation and validation groups. Results: A total of 1340 cases of vaginal delivery were enrolled, with 81 (6.04%) having PPH. Logistic regression indicated that history of uterine surgery, induction of labor, duration of first labor, neonatal weight, WBC value (during the first stage of labor), and cervical lacerations were all independent risk factors of hemorrhage (P <0.05). The area-under-curve (AUC) of ROC curves of the derivation group and the validation group were 0.817 and 0.821, respectively, indicating good discrimination. Two calibration curves showed that nomogram prediction and practical results were highly consistent (P = 0.105, P = 0.113). Conclusion: The developed individualized risk prediction nomogram model can assist midwives in recognizing and diagnosing high-risk groups of PPH and initiating early warning to reduce PPH incidence.

Keywords: vaginal delivery, postpartum hemorrhage, risk factor, nomogram

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Authors: Ronald Mraz, Gary C. Kessler, Ethan Gold, John G. Cline

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The International Ice Patrol (IIP) continually monitors iceberg activity in the North Atlantic by direct observation using ships, aircraft, and satellite imagery. Daily reports detailing navigational boundaries of icebergs have significantly reduced the risk of iceberg contact. What is currently lacking is formatting this data for automatic transmission and display of iceberg navigational boundaries in commercial navigation equipment. This paper describes the methodology and implementation of a system to format iceberg limit information for dissemination through existing radio network communications. This information will then automatically display on commercial navigation equipment. Additionally, this information is reformatted for Google Earth rendering of iceberg track line limits. Having iceberg limit information automatically available in standard navigation equipment will help support full autonomous operation of sailing vessels.

Keywords: iceberg, iceberg risk, iceberg track lines, AIS messaging, international ice patrol, North American ice service, google earth, autonomous surface vessels

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Authors: Mehmet Celik, Celal Erbas, Mehtap Baykal, Aygül Kucukgulmez, Mahmut Ali Gokce, Bilge Kaan Tekelioglu

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In this study, determination of differences in fresh meat yield and proximate compositions of different weight groups of sea bream and sea bass grown in cages in Izmir region of the Aegean Sea were aimed. For this purpose, the length and weight of five different weight groups of sea bass (I: 175.8±5.2, II: 227.3±10.2, III: 293.3±21.3, IV: 404±9.9, V: 508.7±46 g) and sea bream (I: 146.6±13.6, II: 239.8±21.7, III: 279.2±20.8, IV: 400.9±10.5, V: 546.8±0.8 g) were measured and the amount of edible and non-edible parts were determined. Besides this, protein, lipid, dry matter, ash, condition factor, HSI and VSI values were compared according to different weight groups for each species. According to the results of analysis, while the absolute meat yields of sea bream was between 69-294 g, it was between 71-252 g for the sea bass and the highest meat yields were found in fifth (V) weight groups of fish for both species. The relative meat yield (%) was determined in weight group II for sea bass and in the IV. group in sea bream with 51.9%. However, the amount of muscle tissue lipids in I. and V. weight groups of sea bream ranged between 3.6 to 11.9 % and ranged between 6.2 to 9.0 % for sea bass respectively. Protein, fillet and ash content increased in direct proportion to the weight. As a result, it can be speculated that when the meat yield and lipid rates were considered, IV. group in sea bream and II. group in sea bass are the most advantageous groups for the consumers. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the Scientific Research Project Unit of the University of Cukurova, Turkey under grant no FBA-2015-3830.

Keywords: sea bream, sea bass, meat yield, proximate composition, different weight

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Authors: Daniel Alfonso Reséndiz-García, Luis Antonio García-Villanueva

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As a result of the high industrial activity, which arises from the search to satisfy the needs of products and services for society, several chemical accidents have occurred, causing serious damage to different sectors: human, economic, infrastructure and environmental losses. Historically, with the study of this chemical accidents, it has been determined that the causes are mainly due to human errors (inexperienced personnel, negligence, lack of maintenance and deficient risk analysis). The industries have the aim to increase production and reduce costs. However, it should be kept in mind that the costs involved in risk studies, implementation of barriers and safety systems is much cheaper than paying for the possible damages that could occur in the event of an accident, without forgetting that there are things that cannot be replaced, such as human lives.Therefore, it is of utmost importance to implement risk studies in all industries, which provide information for prevention and planning. The aim of this study is to compare risk methodologies by identifying the consequences of accidents related to the storage of flammable, dangerous goods for decision making and emergency response.The methodologies considered in this study are qualitative and quantitative risk analysis and consequence analysis. The latter, by means of modeling software, which provides radius of affectation and the possible scope and magnitude of damages.By using risk analysis, possible scenarios of occurrence of chemical accidents in the storage of flammable substances are identified. Once the possible risk scenarios have been identified, the characteristics of the substances, their storage and atmospheric conditions are entered into the software.The results provide information that allows the implementation of prevention, detection, control, and combat elements for emergency response, thus having the necessary tools to avoid the occurrence of accidents and, if they do occur, to significantly reduce the magnitude of the damage.This study highlights the importance of risk studies applying tools that best suited to each case study. It also proves the importance of knowing the risk exposure of industrial activities for a better prevention, planning and emergency response.

Keywords: chemical accidents, emergency response, flammable substances, risk analysis, modeling

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Authors: Domingos Viegas, Miguel Almeida, Carmen Rocha, Ilda Novo, Yolanda Luna

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Forest fires along the more than 1200km of the Spanish-Portuguese border are more and more frequent, currently achieving around 2000 fire events per year. Some of these events develop to large international wildfire requiring concerted operations based on shared information between the two countries. The fire event of Valencia de Alcantara (2003) causing several fatalities and more than 13000ha burnt, is a reference example of these international events. Currently, Portugal and Spain have a specific cross-border cooperation protocol on wildfires response for a strip of about 30km (15 km for each side). It is recognized by public authorities the successfulness of this collaboration however it is also assumed that this cooperation should include more functionalities such as the development of a common risk information system for transboundary fire events. Since Portuguese and Spanish authorities use different approaches to determine the fire risk indexes inputs and different methodologies to assess the fire risk, sometimes the conjoint firefighting operations are jeopardized since the information is not harmonized and the understanding of the situation by the civil protection agents from both countries is not unique. Thus, a methodology aiming the harmonization of the fire risk calculation and perception by Portuguese and Spanish Civil protection authorities is hereby presented. The final results are presented as well. The fire risk index used in this work is the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which is based on meteorological data. The FWI is limited on its application as it does not take into account other important factors with great effect on the fire appearance and development. The combination of these factors is very complex since, besides the meteorology, it addresses several parameters of different topics, namely: sociology, topography, vegetation and soil cover. Therefore, the meaning of FWI values is different from region to region, according the specific characteristics of each region. In this work, a methodology for FWI calibration based on the number of fire occurrences and on the burnt area in the transboundary regions of Portugal and Spain, in order to assess the fire risk based on calibrated FWI values, is proposed. As previously mentioned, the cooperative firefighting operations require a common perception of the information shared. Therefore, a common classification of the fire risk for the fire events occurred in the transboundary strip is proposed with the objective of harmonizing this type of information. This work is integrated in the ECHO project SpitFire - Spanish-Portuguese Meteorological Information System for Transboundary Operations in Forest Fires, which aims the development of a web platform for the sharing of information and supporting decision tools to be used in international fire events involving Portugal and Spain.

Keywords: data harmonization, FWI, international collaboration, transboundary wildfires

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Authors: Renu Pattanshetty

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The aim of this narrative review is to highlight the impact of menopause on osteoporosis and weight gain. The review also aims to summarize physiotherapeutic strategies to combat the same.A thorough literature search was conducted using electronic databases like MEDline, PUBmed, Highwire Press, PUBmed Central for English language studies that included search terms like menopause, osteoporosis, obesity, weight gain, exercises, physical activity, physiotherapy strategies from the year 2000 till date. Out of 157 studies that included metanalyses, critical reviews and randomized clinical trials, a total of 84 were selected that met the inclusion criteria. Prevalence of obesity is increasing world - wide and is reaching epidemic proportions even in the menopausal women. Prevalence of abdominal obesity is almost double than that general obesity with rates in the US with 65.5% in women ages 40-59 years and 73.8 in women aged 60 years or more. Physical activities and exercises play a vital role in prevention and treatment of osteoporosis and weight gain related to menopause that aim to boost the general well-being and any symptoms brought about by natural body changes. Endurance exercises lasting about 30 minutes /day for 5 days/ week has shown to decrease weight and prevent weight gain. In addition, strength training with at least 8 exercises of 8-12 repetitions working for whole body and for large muscle groups has shown to result positive outcomes. Hot flashes can be combatted through yogic breathing and relaxation exercises. Prevention of fall strategies and resistance training are key to treat diagnosed cases of osteoporosis related to menopause. One to three sets with five to eight repetitions of four to six weight bearing exercises have shown positive results. Menopause marks an important time for women to evaluate their risk of obesity and osteoporosis. It is known fact that bone benefit from exercises are lost when training is stopped, hence, practicing bone smart habits and strict adherence to recommended physical activity programs are recommended which are enjoyable, safe and effective.

Keywords: menopause, osteoporosis, obesity, weight gain, exercises, physical activity, physiotherapy strategies

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Authors: Fayaz Moosavi, Saeid Moradyfard

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One of the methods in avoiding management fraud and increasing the quality of financial information, is the notification of qualitative features of financial information, including conservatism characteristic. Although taking a conservatism approach, while boosting the quality of financial information, is able to reduce the informational risk and the cost of capital stock of commercial department, by presenting an improper image about the situation of the commercial department, raises the risk of failure in returning the main and capital interest, and consequently the cost of capital of the commercial department. In order to know if conservatism finally leads to the increase or decrease of the cost of capital or does not have any influence on it, information regarding accepted companies in Tehran stock exchange is utilized by application of pooling method from 2007 to 2012 and it included 124 companies. The results of the study revealed that there is an opposite and meaningful relationship between conditional conservatism and the cost of capital of the company. In other words, if bad and unsuitable news and signs are reflected sooner than good news in accounting profit, the cost of capital of the company increases. In addition, there is a positive and meaningful relationship between the cost of capital and lack of information asymmetry.

Keywords: conditional conservatism, lack of information asymmetry, the cost of capital, stock exchange

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Authors: Muhammad Naeem, Abdus Salam, Sumera Yasmin, Abir Ishtiaq

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In the present study, eighty-three wild Oreochromis aureus of different body size ranging 5.3-14.6 cm in total length were collected from the River Chenab, District Muzzafer Garh, Pakistan to investigate the parameters of length –weight, length-length relationships and condition factor in relation to size. Each fish was measured and weighed on arrival at laboratory. Log transformed regressions were used to test the allometric growth. Length-weight relationship was found highly significant (r = 0.964; P < 0.01). The values of exponent “ b” in Length–weight regression (W=aL^b), deviated from 3, showing isometric growth (b = 2.75). Results for LLRs indicated that these are highly correlated (P < 0.001). Condition factor (K) found constant with increasing body weight, however, showed negative influence with increasing total length.

Keywords: lenght-weight, Oreochromis aureus, morphometric study

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Authors: Aylin Hasbay Büyükkaragöz, Zehra Büyüktuncer, Tuğçe Nur Balcı, Nevin Ergun

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Purpose: Nutritional supplement usage is widespread among athletes all over the world. However, the usage among disabled athletes is not well-known. This study aimed to evaluate dietary supplement use in disabled athletes, their motivation for consuming supplements, sources of information, and their side effect. Methods: A total of 75 Turkish National Team's disabled athletes (38 female, 37 male) from 5 sport branches (soccer, weight lifting, shooting, table tennis and basketball), aged 13- 55 years, were participated in the study. Nutritional supplement usage was inquired using a questionnaire by a dietitian at their preparation camps. Results: A total of 22.7% of the athletes (18.4% and 27% of, respectively females and males) used some type of dietary supplements. Protein (35.3%), amino acid (29.4%), carnitine (29.4%), creatine (23.5%) and glucosamine (23.5%) were mostly preferred nutritional supplements by all athletes. The most common supplements use was obtained among weightlifters (71.4%), followed by the athletes of soccer (23.5%), table tennis (15.4%), and basketball (6.7%). No nutritional supplement usage was observed among shooters. Total of 41.2% consumers declared more than one reason for taking nutritional supplements. The main motivation for supplement usage was improving athletic performance (63.5%). Other reasons were weight loss, weight gain, muscle development, health protection and nutritional support. Athletes were more likely to get recommendation about nutritional supplement usage from team coaches (48.9%). Of 35.6% athletes reported that they made their own decision about using supplements. Other information sources were health professional, family member, friend and sale manager of sport retail store. Only 3 of 17 athletes reported side effects which were increased urine output, weight gain, loss of appetite and intestinal gas. Conclusions: Nutritional supplement usage was not common among disabled athletes. However, getting information from incompetent sources is disquieting. Considering their health problems, accurate information from competent sources should be provided to disabled athletes. Moreover, long term effects of nutritional supplements among disabled athletes should be examined in further studies.

Keywords: disabled athletes, ergogenic aid, nutritional supplement, vitamin supplementation

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Authors: A. A. Ahmadi, A. R. Pishevar, M. Nili

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As the test gas in a gun tunnel is non-isentropically compressed and heated by a light weight piston. Here, first consideration is the optimum piston weight. Although various aspects of the influence of piston weight on gun tunnel performance have been studied, it is not possible to decide from the existing literature what piston weight is required for optimum performance in various conditions. The technique whereby the piston is rapidly brought to rest at the end of the gun tunnel barrel, and the resulted peak pressure is equal in magnitude to the final equilibrium pressure, is called the equilibrium piston technique. The equilibrium piston technique was developed to estimate the equilibrium piston mass; but this technique cannot give an appropriate estimate for the optimum piston weight. In the present work, a gun tunnel with diameter of 3 in. is described and its performance is investigated numerically to obtain the effect of piston and its weight. Numerical results in the present work are in very good agreement with experimental results. Significant influence of the existence of a piston is shown by comparing the gun tunnel results with results of a conventional shock tunnel in the same dimension and same initial condition. In gun tunnel, an increase of around 250% in running time is gained relative to shock tunnel. Also, Numerical results show that equilibrium piston technique is not a good way to estimate suitable piston weight and there will be a lighter piston which can increase running time of the gun tunnel around 60%.

Keywords: gun tunnel, hypersonic flow, piston, shock tunnel

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Authors: Liang Weichien

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Without adequate information and mitigation plan for natural disaster, the risk to urban populated areas will increase in the future as populations grow, especially in Taiwan. Taiwan is recognized as the world's high-risk areas, where an average of 5.7 times of floods occur per year should seek to strengthen coherence and consensus in how cities can plan for flood and climate change. Therefore, this study aims at understanding the vulnerability to flooding in Taipei city, Taiwan, by creating indicators and calculating the vulnerability of each study units. The indicators were grouped into sensitivity and adaptive capacity based on the definition of vulnerability of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The indicators were weighted by using Principal Component Analysis. However, current researches were based on the assumption that the composition and influence of the indicators were the same in different areas. This disregarded spatial correlation that might result in inaccurate explanation on local vulnerability. The study used Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis by adding geographic weighting matrix as weighting to get the different main flood impact characteristic in different areas. Cross Validation Method and Akaike Information Criterion were used to decide bandwidth and Gaussian Pattern as the bandwidth weight scheme. The ultimate outcome can be used for the reduction of damage potential by integrating the outputs into local mitigation plan and urban planning.

Keywords: flood vulnerability, geographically weighted principal components analysis, GWPCA, highly urbanized area, spatial correlation

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Authors: Kasirga Yildirak, Ismail Gur

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We propose a model to measure hail risk of an Agricultural Insurance portfolio. Hail is one of the major catastrophic event that causes big amount of loss to an insurer. Moreover, it is very hard to predict due to its strange atmospheric characteristics. We make use of parcel based claims data on apricot damage collected by the Turkish Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM). As our ultimate aim is to compute the loadings assigned to specific parcels, we build a portfolio risk model that makes use of PD and the severity of the exposures. PD is computed by Spherical-Linear and Circular –Linear regression models as the data carries coordinate information and seasonality. Severity is mapped into integer brackets so that Probability Generation Function could be employed. Individual regressions are run on each clusters estimated on different criteria. Loss distribution is constructed by Panjer Recursion technique. We also show that one risk-one crop model can easily be extended to the multi risk–multi crop model by assuming conditional independency.

Keywords: hail insurance, spherical regression, circular regression, spherical clustering

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Authors: Aliaksei Patsekha, Michael Hohenberger, Harald Raupenstrauch

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An effective emergency response to accidents with chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, or explosive materials (CBRNE) that represent highly dynamic situations needs immediate actions within limited time, information and resources. The aim of the study is to provide the foundation for division of unsafe area into risk zones according to the impact of hazardous parameters (heat radiation, thermal dose, overpressure, chemical concentrations). A decision on the boundary values for three risk zones is based on the vulnerability analysis that covered a variety of accident scenarios containing the release of a toxic or flammable substance which either evaporates, ignites and/or explodes. Critical values are selected for the boundary definition of the Red, Orange and Yellow risk zones upon the examination of harmful effects that are likely to cause injuries of varying severity to people and different levels of damage to structures. The obtained results provide the basis for creating a comprehensive real-time risk map for a decision support at CBRNE operations.

Keywords: boundary values, CBRNE threats, decision making process, hazardous effects, vulnerability analysis, risk zones

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Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejía, Jenny Paola Forero Pachón, Luis Carlos Gómez Flórez

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Action research is a qualitative research methodology, which leads the researcher to delve into the problems of a community in order to understand its needs in depth and finally, to propose actions that lead to a change of social paradigm. Although this methodology had its beginnings in the human sciences, it has attracted increasing interest and acceptance in the field of information systems research since the 1990s. The countless possibilities offered nowadays by the use of Information Technologies (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities have meant a change of social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. According to this, governments, large corporations, small entrepreneurs and in general, organizations of all kinds are using IT to virtualize their processes, taking them from the physical environment to the digital environment. However, there is a potential risk for organizations related with exposing valuable information without an appropriate framework for protecting it. This paper shows progress in the development of a methodological design to manage the information security risks associated with the IT-based processes virtualization, by applying the principles of the action research methodology and it is the result of a systematic review of the scientific literature. This design consists of seven fundamental stages. These are distributed in the three stages described in the action research methodology: 1) Observe, 2) Analyze and 3) Take actions. Finally, this paper aims to offer an alternative tool to traditional information security management methodologies with a view to being applied specifically in the planning stage of IT-based process virtualization in order to foresee risks and to establish security controls before formulating IT solutions in any type of organization.

Keywords: action research, information security, information technology, methodological design, process virtualization, risk management

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Authors: El Hassan Abba, Touria Hachi, Mhamed Khaffou, Nezha El Adel, Abdelkhalek Zraouti, Hassan ElIdrissi

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The present study has the overall objective of studying the effect of garlic and Argan oil on the growth of Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) fingerlings at the Ras El Ma (Azrou) salmon farming station during the 2023 production period. The fingerlings were distributed in seven tanks at a rate of 1000 per lot. The first control tank (B0) received only the feed without additives. Tanks B1, B2, B3, and B4 received garlic as a feed additive at a rate of 1%, 1.5%, 2% and 2.5% respectively. The fingerlings in tanks B5 and B6, in addition to 2.5% garlic, received 5 and 10ml argon oil, respectively. During this two-month experiment, the weight growth of the fingerlings and the physico-chemical parameters of the water that are favorable for fry rearing (hydrogen potential, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and electrical conductivity) were monitored. The weight growth of fingerlings receiving garlic was positive (mean weight: 4.95g, 5.43g, 5.13g, and 5.06g) compared with control fingerlings (mean weight: 3.88g). The maximum average weight was obtained with 1.5% garlic (average weight: 5.43g). The addition of 5 and 10ml of argon oil to B5 and B6 resulted in a slight increase in weight for the B5 fingerlings (5.37g) compared with the B4 control fingerlings (mean weight: 5.06g) but a minor decrease for the B6 batch (4.73g). The experimental results showed that the use of these feed additives had a positive effect on growth and yield, regardless of the quantities used.

Keywords: Oncorhychus mykiss, fry, feed additive, garlic, argon oil, weight growth

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Authors: Farzad Shidfar, Najmeh Rostami, Ziaodin Mazhari, Fatemeh Hosseini Baharanchi

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Background and Aim: The rate of failure to maintain a reduced weight has been increased. By definition, people who regain about one-third to two-thirds of their lost weight after one year from the end of the dietary treatment and return all the lost weight after 5 years it is called weight regain. This study was performed to find the causes of weight regain and its relationship with biochemical and psychological factors. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed by reviewing the files of people who followed the dietary treatment in 1397-1398.seventy-three persons was in the weight regain group, and seventy-three people were in the weight maintenance group. Psychological factors such as depression, anxiety, quality of life, physical activity, and dietary frequency were assessed through a questionnaire, and biochemical factors such as serum insulin and fasting blood sugar were measured. The mean basal energy in the weight regain group was significantly higher than the weight maintenance group (p = 0.004). There was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of food intake and inflammatory index of food. There was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of food intake and inflammatory index of food. Mean serum insulin concentration (p = 0.023), mean fasting blood sugar (p = 0.04) and insulin resistance (p = 0.013) in the weight regain group were higher than the weight maintenance group. The weight maintenance group showed higher insulin sensitivity than the weight regain group (p = 0.005). There was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of psychological indicators. Conclusion: The only body mass index after one year from the end of the treatment period, insulin sensitivity, serum insulin concentration, fasting blood sugar, insulin resistance, selenium intake, and basal energy expenditure Specific and significant with weight regain. However, the significance of insulin resistance, basal energy expenditure, and body mass index after one year from the end of the treatment period was higher than other variables in the weight regain group.

Keywords: body weight maintenance, weight regain, insulin resistance, insulin sensitivity

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Authors: Jing-Jing Wang, Yang Gao, Heather H. M. Kwok, Wendy Y. J. Huang

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Objectives: Intellectual disability (ID) ranks among the top 20 most costly disorders. A child with ID creates a wide set of challenges to the individual, family, and society, and overweight and obesity aggravate those challenges. People with ID have the right to attain optimal health like the rest of the population. They should be given priority to eliminate existing health inequities. Childhood obesity epidemic and associated factors among children, in general, has been well documented, while knowledge about overweight and obesity in children with ID is scarce. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 524 Chinese children with ID (males: 68.9%, mean age: 12.2 years) in Hong Kong in 2015. Children’s height and weight were measured at school. Parents, in the presence of their children, completed a self-administered questionnaire at home about the children’s physical activity (PA), eating habits, and sleep duration in a typical week as well as parenting practices regarding children’s eating and PA, and their socio-demographic characteristics. Multivariate logistic regression estimated the potential risk factors for children being overweight. Results: The prevalence of overweight and obesity in children with ID was 31.3%, which was higher than their general counterparts (18.7%-19.9%). Multivariate analyses revealed that the risk factors of overweight and obese in children with ID included: comorbidity with autism, the maternal side being overweight or obese, parenting practices with less pressure to eat more, children having shorter sleep duration, longer periods of sedentary behavior, and higher intake frequencies of sweetened food, fried food, and meats, fish, and eggs. Children born in other places, having snacks more frequently, and having irregular meals were also more likely to be overweight or obese, with marginal significance. Conclusions: Children with ID are more vulnerable to being overweight or obese than their typically developing counterparts. Identified risk factors in this study highlight a multifaceted approach to the involvement of parents as well as the modification of some children’s questionable behaviors to help them achieve a healthy weight.

Keywords: prevalence, risk factors, obesity, children with disability

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Authors: Masoud Ghahvechi Pour

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Risk management is a systematic and regular process of identifying, analyzing and responding to risks throughout the project's life cycle in order to achieve the optimal level of elimination, reduction or control of risk. The purpose of project risk management is to increase the probability and effect of positive events and reduce the probability and effect of unpleasant events on the project. Risk management is one of the most fundamental parts of project management, so that unmanaged or untransmitted risks can be one of the primary factors of failure in a project. Effective risk management does not apply to risk regression, which is apparently the cheapest option of the activity. However, the main problem with this option is the economic sensitivity, because what is potentially profitable is by definition risky, and what does not pose a risk is economically interesting and does not bring tangible benefits. Therefore, in relation to the implemented project, effective risk management is finding a "middle ground" in its management, which includes, on the one hand, protection against risk from a negative direction by means of accurate identification and classification of risk, which leads to analysis And it becomes a comprehensive analysis. On the other hand, management using all mathematical and analytical tools should be based on checking the maximum benefits of these decisions. Detailed analysis, taking into account all aspects of the company, including stakeholder analysis, will allow us to add what will become tangible benefits for our project in the future to effective risk management. Identifying the risk of the project is based on the theory that which type of risk may affect the project, and also refers to specific parameters and estimating the probability of their occurrence in the project. These conditions can be divided into three groups: certainty, uncertainty, and risk, which in turn support three types of investment: risk preference, risk neutrality, specific risk deviation, and its measurement. The result of risk identification and project analysis is a list of events that indicate the cause and probability of an event, and a final assessment of its impact on the environment.

Keywords: risk, management, knowledge, risk management

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Authors: Cameron Truong, Mikhail Bhatia, Yangyang Chen, Viet Nga Cao

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Using a sample of U.S. firms between 1996 and 2011, this paper documents a positive association between options trading volume and future stock price crash risk. This relation is evidently more pronounced among firms with higher information asymmetry, business uncertainty, and short-sale constraints. In a dichotomous cross-sectional setting, we also document that firms with options trading have higher future crash risk than firms without options trading. We further show in a difference-in-difference analysis that firms experience an increase in crash risk immediately after the listing of options. The results suggest that options traders are able of identifying bad news hoarding by management and choose to trade in a liquid options market in anticipation of future crashes.

Keywords: bad news hoarding, cross-sectional setting, options trading, stock price crash

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Authors: Dianne Williams

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This study examined the peer/individual domain of the Risk Factor Prevention Paradigm (RFPP) to assess the risk and protective factors that impact criminal gang involvement among at-risk males residing in a juvenile home in Trinidad and Tobago. The RFPP allows for the identification of both risk and protective factors in a single, holistic framework to identify the relationship between risk factors, protective factors, and criminal gang involvement among at-risk male adolescents. Findings showed that having anti-social peers was the most significant risk factor associated with criminal gang involvement, while the most significant protective factor was having a positive social attitude. Moreover, while 65% of the boys reported never having been in a gang, 70% reported having hit, struck or used a weapon against someone, while 52% reported being involved in other violent incidents on more than two occasions. This suggests that while involvement with criminal gangs may not be common among this population, predisposing behavioral patterns are present. Results are expected to assist in the development of targeted strategies to reduce the attractiveness of gang membership.

Keywords: risk factor prevention paradigm, risk factors, protective factors, peer/individual domain, gang involvement, at-risk youth, trinidad and tobago, juvenile home

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Authors: S. Fazelifar, M. Ghasemi

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Aim: Recent studies on cardiovascular risk factors have been focused on the new markers of inflammatory diseases such as C-reactive protein (CRP). Research evidence shows that physical activity along with other factors such as reduced smoking, controlling blood pressure, control blood lipids TC, LDL-c, HDL-c and having a healthy weight can reduce the risk of chronic heart disease (CHD) .Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the effect of twelve weeks aerobic exercise and consumption of apple vinegar on cardiovascular risk factor in older women. Methodology: 28 inactive women (mean body weight 72.13 ± 8.6 kg, height 157 ± 7.4cm, age 48.06 ± 5.18 years and BMI 28.2 ± 3.2 kg/m2) by recall and notice of investigation, among of the eligible voters recruited and randomly divided in 4 groups: control, apple vinegar, exercise, exercise + apple vinegar. The training program includes a 20-minute warm-up and stretching, running for 15 minutes in the first session with an intensity of 80% of maximum heart rate and an increase in one-minute run time in next training session. Also, subjects in experimental groups received daily specified amount of 50 ml apple vinegar. Blood samples were collected from the brachial vein in before and after training to measure CRP and blood lipids (cholesterol, HDL, VLDL, LDL). The levels of CRP were measured by ELISA way. K-S test to determine the normality of the data and analysis of variance for repeated measures was used to analyze the data. A significant difference in the p < 0/05 accepted. Results: The results indicated that individual characteristics including height, weight, age, and body mass index were not significantly different among the four groups. The results showed that levels of CRP and LDL cholesterol were significantly reduced in all groups at post-test compared to the pre-test. The HDL levels increased significantly in all groups in post-test compared to the pre-test. Analysis of the data indicates that levels of CRP, TC, and LDL were significantly reduced in all groups compared to the control group, while the changes in the other groups were not significant relative to each other. Conclusion: Results of this study showed that twelve weeks of aerobic exercise with apple vinegar cause a significant decrease in CRP, cholesterol, LDL, and significantly increased HDL levels. According to the results of this study, it is possible that aerobic exercise with apple vinegar can inhibit CRP and undesirable fats. Considering the strong association between the inflammatory indices and the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases, every factor that decreases these indices can reduce the cardiovascular complications.

Keywords: aerobic exercise, apple vinegar, CRP, older women

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Authors: Ulas Cinar, Omer Faruk Ugurlu, Selcuk Cebi

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Occupational safety risk management is the most important element of a safe working environment. Effective risk management can only be possible with accurate analysis and evaluations. Scoring-based risk assessment methods offer considerable ease of application as they convert linguistic expressions into numerical results. It can also be easily adapted to any field. Contrary to all these advantages, important problems in scoring-based methods are frequently discussed. Effective measurability is one of the most critical problems. Existing methods allow experts to choose a score equivalent to each parameter. Therefore, experts prefer the score of the most likely outcome for risk. However, all other possible consequences are neglected. Assessments of the existing methods express the most probable level of risk, not the real risk of the enterprises. In this study, it is aimed to develop a method that will present a more comprehensive evaluation compared to the existing methods by evaluating the probability and severity scores, all sub-parameters, and potential results, and a new scoring-based method is proposed in the literature.

Keywords: occupational health and safety, risk assessment, scoring based risk assessment method, underground mining, weighted risk scores

Procedia PDF Downloads 116