Search results for: prognostic factors for mortality

Authors: Mekni Sabrine, Nouira Mariem

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Background and aim: Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is a curative treatment for several hematological diseases; however, it has a non-negligible morbidity and mortality depending on several prognostic factors, including pre-transplant hyperferritinemia. The aim of our study was to estimate the impact of hyperferritinemia on survivals and on the occurrence of post-transplant complications. Methods: It was a longitudinal study conducted over 8 years and including all patients who had a first allograft. The impact of pretransplant hyperferritinemia (ferritinemia ≥1500) on survivals was studied using the Kaplan Meier method and the COX model for uni- and multivariate analysis. The Khi-deux test and binary logistic regression were used to study the association between pretransplant ferritinemia and post-transplant complications. Results: One hundred forty patients were included with an average age of 26.6 years and a sex ratio (M/F)=1.4. Hyperferritinemia was found in 33% of patients. It had no significant impact on either overall survival (p=0.9) or event -free survival (p=0.6). In multivariate analysis, only the type of disease was independently associated with overall survival (p=0.04) and event-free survival (p=0.002). For post-allograft complications: The occurrence of early documented infections was independently associated with pretransplant hyperferritinemia (p=0.02) and the presence of acute graft versus host disease( GVHD) (p<10-3). The occurrence of acute GVHD was associated with early documented infection (p=0.002) and Cytomegalovirus reactivation (p<10-3). The occurrence of chronic GVHD was associated with the presence of Cytomegalovirus reactivation (p=0.006) and graft source (p=0.009). Conclusion: Our study showed the significant impact of pre-transplant hyperferritinemia on the occurrence of early infections but not on survivals. Early and more accurate assessment iron overload by other tests such as liver magnetic resonance imaging with initiation of chelating treatment could prevent the occurrence of such complications after transplantation.

Keywords: allogeneic, transplants, ferritin, survival

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Authors: T. Pradhan, P. Rijal, M. C. Regmi

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Background: Eclampsia is a multisystem disorder that involves vital organs and failure of these may lead to deterioration of maternal condition and hypoxia and acidosis of fetus resulting in high maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Thus, evaluation of the contributing factors for this condition and its complications leading to maternal deaths should be the priority. Formulating the plan and protocol to decrease these losses should be our goal. Aims and Objectives: To evaluate the risk factors associated with adverse maternal and fetal outcome in patients with eclampsia and to correlate the risk factors associated with maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. Methods: All patients with eclampsia admitted in Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, B. P. Koirala Institute of Health Sciences were enrolled after informed consent from February 2013 to February 2014. Questions as per per-forma were asked to patients, and attendants like Antenatal clinic visits, parity, number of episodes of seizures, duration from onset of seizure to magnesium sulfate and the patients were followed as per the hospital protocol, the mode of delivery, outcome of baby, post partum maternal condition like maternal Intensive Care Unit admission, neurological impairment and mortality were noted before discharge. Statistical analysis was done using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS 11). Mean and percentage were calculated for demographic variables. Pearson’s correlation test and chi-square test were applied to find the relation between the risk factors and the outcomes. P value less than 0.05 was considered significant. Results: There were 10,000 antenatal deliveries during the study period. Fifty-two patients with eclampsia were admitted. All of the patients were unbooked for our institute. Thirty-nine patients were antepartum eclampsia. Thirty-one patients required mechanical ventilator support. Twenty-four patients were delivered by emergency c-section and 21 babies were Low Birth Weight and there were 9 stillbirths. There was one maternal mortality and 45 patients were discharged with improvement but 3 patients had neurological impairment. Mortality was significantly related with number of seizure episodes and time interval between seizure onset and administration of magnesium sulphate. Conclusion: Early detection and management of hypertensive complicating pregnancy during antenatal clinic check up. Early hospitalization and management with magnesium sulphate for eclampsia can help to minimize the maternal and fetal adverse outcomes.

Keywords: eclampsia, maternal mortality, perinatal mortality, risk factors

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Authors: Gagandeep Singh Grover, Vini Mahajan, Bhagmal, Priti Thaware, Jaspreet Takkar

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Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease endemic in many countries in the tropics and sub-tropics. The state of Punjab in India shows cyclical and seasonal variation in dengue cases. The Case Fatality Rate of Dengue has ranged from 0.6 to 1.0 in the past years. The department has initiated a review of the cases that have died due to dengue in order to know the exact cause of the death in a case of dengue. The study has been undertaken to know the other associated co-morbidities and factors causing death in a case of dengue. The study used the predesigned proforma on which the records (medical and Lab) were recorded and reviewed by the expert committee of the doctors. This study has revealed that cases of dengue having co-morbidities have a longer stay in the hospital. Fluid overload and co-morbidities have been found as major factors leading to death, however, in a confirmed case of dengue hepatorenal shutdown was found to be a major cause of mortality. The data obtained will help in sensitizing the treating physicians in order to decrease the mortality due to dengue in future.

Keywords: dengue, death, morbidities, DHF, DSS

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Authors: Neda Valizadeh, Mani Mofidi, Sama Haghighi, Ali Hashemaghaee, Soudabeh Shafiee Ardestani

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Background: There are many systems and parameters to evaluate trauma patients in the emergency department. Most of these evaluations are to distinguish patients with worse conditions so that the care systems have a better prediction of condition for a better care-giving. The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between axillary body temperature and mortality in patients hospitalized in the intensive care unit (ICU) with multiple traumas and with other clinical and para-clinical factors. Methods: All patients between 16 and 75 years old with multiple traumas who were admitted into Emergency Department then hospitalized in the ICU were included in our study. An axillary temperature in the first and the second day of admission, Glasgow cola scale (GCS), systolic blood pressure, Serum glucose levels, and white blood cell counts of all patients at the admission day were recorded and their relationship with mortality were analyzed by SPSS software with suitable statistical tests. Results: Axillary body temperatures in the first and second day were statistically lower in expired traumatic patients (p=0.001 and p<0,001 respectively). Patients with lower GCS had a significantly lower first-day temperature and a significantly higher mortality. (p=0.006 and p=0.006 respectively). Furthermore, the first-day axillary temperature was significantly lower in patients with a lower first-day systolic blood pressure (p=0.014). Conclusion: Our results showed that lower axillary body temperature in the first day is associated with higher mortality, lower GCS, and lower systolic blood pressure. Thus, this could be used as a predictor of mortality in evaluation of traumatic patients in emergency settings.

Keywords: fever, trauma, mortality, emergency

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Authors: A. Dadda, D. Khelef, K. Ait-Oudia, R. Kaidi

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Neonatal calf diarrhea is the most important disease of neonatal calves and results in the greatest economic losses due to disease in this age group in both dairy and beef calves. The objectives of the present study were to estimate the morbidity and the mortality of neonatal diarrhea in dairy calves also to determine aetiology and risk factors were caused diarrhea in dairy veal under 60 days old. A total of 324 claves, housed in 30 dairy breeding were followed during two velage season from January to Juan 2013. The total mortality was 5,9% and was significantly higher in calves had less than 15 days of age. The incidence rate of diarrhea was 31,5% and peaked in the first two weeks after velage. The main causes were breeding controls, defect of passive immunity, old of calf, production season, and nutrient of pregnant cattle, veal’s housing and infectious agents. ELISA test on 22 fecal samples revealed that the 31, 82% of dairy breeding were infected, by cryptosporidium parvum in 13, 6% of study population, E.Coli F5 in 9% and Rotavirus with rate of 4, 5%.

Keywords: diarrhoea, neonatal, mortality, aetiology, risk factors, incidence

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Authors: Muhammad Dildar Gogi, Muhammad Arshad, Muhammad Ahsan Khan, M. Sufian, Ahmad Nawaz, Mubashir Iqbal, Muhammad Junaid Nisar, Waleed Afzal Naveed

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Larvae of silkworm (Bombyx mori) exhibit very high mortality when reared on mulberry leaves collected from mulberry orchards which get contaminated with metallic/nonmetallic compounds through either drift-deposition or chemigation. There is need to screen out such metallic compound for their toxicity at their various concentrations. The present study was carried out to assess toxicity of metals in different instars of silkworm. Aqueous solutions of nine heavy-metal based salts were prepared by dissolving 50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350 and 400 mg of each salt in one liter of water and were applied on the mulberry leaves by leaf-dip methods. The results reveal that mortality in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th instar larvae caused by each heavy metal salts increased with an increase in their concentrations. The 1st instar larvae were found more susceptible to metal salts followed by 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th instar larvae of silkworm. Overall, Nickel chloride proved more toxic for all larval instar as it demonstrated approximately 40-99% mortality. On the basis of LC2 and larval mortality, the order of toxicity of heavy metals against all five larval instar was Nickel chloride (LC₂ = 1.9-13.9 mg/L; & 15.0±1.2-69.2±1.7% mortality) followed by Chromium nitrate (LC₂ = 3.3-14.8 mg/L; & 13.3±1.4-62.4±2.8% mortality), Cobalt nitrate (LC₂ = 4.3-30.9; &11.4±0.07-54.9±2.0% mortality), Lead acetate (LC₂ =8.8-53.3 mg/L; & 9.5±1.3-46.4±2.9% mortality), Aluminum sulfate (LC₂ = 15.5-76.6 mg/L; & 8.4±0.08-42.1±2.8% mortality), Barium sulfide (LC₂ = 20.9-105.9; & 7.7±1.1-39.2±2.5% mortality), Copper sulfate (LC2 = 28.5-12.4 mg/L; & 7.3±0.06-37.1±2.4% mortality), Manganese chloride (LC₂ = 29.9-136.9 mg/L; & 6.8±0.09-35.3±1.6% mortality) and Zinc nitrate (LC₂ = 36.3-15 mg/L; & 6.2±1.2-32.1±1.9% mortality). Zinc nitrate @ 50 and 100 mg/L, Barium sulfide @ 50 mg/L, Manganese chloride @ 50 and 100 mg/L and Copper sulfate @ 50 mg/L proved safe for 5th instar larvae as these interaction attributed no mortality. All the heavy metal salts at a concentration of 50 mg/L demonstrated less than 10% mortality.

Keywords: heavy-metals, larval-instars, lethal-concentration, mortality, silkworm

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Authors: Yao Song, Danni Cheng, Jianjun Ren

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Objectives: We aimed to explore the prognostic effects of absolute values and dynamic changes of common hematological indices on oropharynx squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients treated with radiation. Methods and materials: The absolute values of white blood cell (WBC), absolute neutrophil count (ANC), absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), hemoglobin (Hb), platelet (Plt), albumin (Alb), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) at baseline (within 45 days before radiation), 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-months after the start of radiotherapy were retrospectively collected. Locally-estimated smoothing scatterplots were used to describe the smooth trajectory of each index. A mixed-effect model with a random slope was fitted to describe the changing rate and trend of indices over time. Cox proportional hazard analysis was conducted to assess the correlation between hematological indices and treatment outcomes. Results: Of the enrolled 85 OPSCC patients, inflammatory indices, such as WBC and ALC, dropped rapidly during acute treatment and gradually recovered, while NLR and PLR increased at first three months and subsequently declined within 3-12 months. Higher absolute value or increasing trend of nutritional indices (Alb and Hb) was associated with better prognosis (all p<0.05). In contrast, patients with higher absolute value or upward trend of inflammatory indices (WBC, ANC, Plt, PLR and NLR) had worse survival (all p<0.05). Conclusions: The absolute values and dynamic changes of hematological indices were valuable prognostic factors for OPSCC patients who underwent radiotherapy.

Keywords: hematological indices, oropharyngeal cancer, radiotherapy, NLR, PLR

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Authors: G. I. Onwuka, A. Danbaba, S. U. Gulumbe

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This study investigated of Infant Mortality Rate as observed at a general hospital in Kaduna-South, Kaduna State, North West Nigeria. The causes of infant Mortality were examined. The data used for this analysis were collected at the statistics unit of the Hospital. The analysis was carried out on the data using Multiple Linear regression Technique and this showed that there is linear relationship between the dependent variable (death) and the independent variables (malaria, measles, anaemia, and coronary heart disease). The resultant model also revealed that a unit increment in each of these diseases would result to a unit increment in death recorded, 98.7% of the total variation in mortality is explained by the given model. The highest number of mortality was recorded in July, 2005 and the lowest mortality recorded in October, 2009.Recommendations were however made based on the results of the study.

Keywords: infant mortality rate, multiple linear regression, diseases, serial correlation

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Authors: Alcino Panguana

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All Portuguese-speaking African countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region that has high infant mortality rates, being responsible for 49.6% of deaths in Portuguese-speaking African countries, Angola has levels of infant mortality among children, where 2017, 156 children who died before reaching 1 year of life in 1000 live births. Although there is an increase in studies that document trends and specific causes of infant mortality in each country, historical-comparative studies of infant mortality among these countries remain rare. Understanding the trend of this indicator is important for policymakers and planners in order to improve access to successful child survival operations. Lusophone Africa continues with high infant mortality rates in the order of 64 deaths per thousand births. Assuming heterogeneities that can characterize these countries, raise an analysis investigated indicator at the country level to understand the pattern and historical trend of infant mortality within Lusophone Africa from the year 2021. The result is to understand the levels and evolution of infant mortality in Portuguese-speaking African countries.

Keywords: child mortality, levels, trends, lusophone African countries

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Authors: W. Sriwattanapongse, S. Prasitwattanaseree, S. Wongtrangan

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The transportation accidents mortality is a major problem that leads to loss of human lives, and economic. The objective was to identify patterns of statistical modeling for estimating mortality rates due to transportation accidents in Thailand by using data from 2000 to 2009. The data was taken from the death certificate, vital registration database. The number of deaths and mortality rates were computed classifying by gender, age, year and region. There were 114,790 cases of transportation accidents deaths. The highest average age-specific transport accident mortality rate is 3.11 per 100,000 per year in males, Southern region and the lowest average age-specific transport accident mortality rate is 1.79 per 100,000 per year in females, North-East region. Linear, poisson and negative binomial models were chosen for fitting statistical model. Among the models fitted, the best was chosen based on the analysis of deviance and AIC. The negative binomial model was clearly appropriate fitted.

Keywords: transportation accidents, mortality, modeling, analysis of deviance

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Authors: Erdem Kirkbesoglu, A. Bugra Soylu, E. Deniz Kahraman

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The aim of this study is to examine the effects of some variables on organizational mortality of the Turkish insurance industry and calculate the carrying capacities of Turkish insurance industry according to cities and regions. In the study, organizational mortality was tested with the level of reaching the population's carrying capacity. The findings of this study show that the insurance sales potentials can be calculated according to the provinces and regions of Turkey. It has also been proven that the organizations that feed on the same source will have a carrying capacity in the evolutionary process.

Keywords: insurance, carrying capacity, organizational mortality, organization

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Authors: Florge Francis A. Sy

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Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory condition of the pancreas with local and systemic complications. Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) has a higher mortality rate. Laboratory parameters like the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), red cell distribution width (RDW), and mean platelet volume (MPV) have been associated with SAP but with conflicting results. This study aims to determine the predictive value of these parameters on the severity and in-hospital mortality of AP. This retrospective, cross-sectional study was done in a private hospital in Cebu City, Philippines. One-hundred five patients were classified according to severity based on the modified Marshall scoring. The admitting hemogram, including the NLR, RDW, and MPV, was obtained from the complete blood count (CBC). Cut-off values for severity and in-hospital mortality were derived from the ROC. Association between NLR, RDW, and MPV with SAP and mortality were determined with a p-value of < 0.05 considered significant. The mean age for AP was 47.6 years, with 50.5% being male. Most had an unknown cause (49.5%), followed by a biliary cause (37.1%). Of the 105 patients, 23 patients had SAP, and 4 died. Older age, longer in-hospital duration, congestive heart failure, elevated creatinine, urea nitrogen, and white blood cell count were seen in SAP. The NLR was associated with in-hospital mortality using a cut-off of > 10.6 (OR 1.133, 95% CI, p-value 0.003) with 100% sensitivity, 70.3% specificity, 11.76% PPV and 100% NPV (AUC 0.855). The NLR was not associated with SAP. The RDW and MPV were not associated with SAP and mortality. The admitting NLR is, therefore, an easily accessible parameter that can predict in-hospital mortality in acute pancreatitis. Although the present study did not show an association of NLR with SAP nor RDW and MPV with both SAP and mortality, further studies are suggested to establish their clinical value.

Keywords: acute pancreatitis, mean platelet volume, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, red cell distribution width

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Authors: Sandipika Gupta

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Objective: Due to admirably low 30-day mortality rates for paediatric cardiac surgery, it is now pertinent to turn towards more intermediate-length outcomes such as morbidities closely associated with these surgeries. One such morbidity, major adverse events (MAE) comprises a group of adverse outcomes associated with paediatric cardiac surgery (e.g. cardiac arrest, major haemorrhage). Methods: This is a retrospective study that analysed the incidence and impact of MAE which was the primary outcome in the UK population. The data was collected in 5 centres between October 2015 and June 2017, amassing 3090 surgical episodes. The incidence and risk factors for MAE, were assessed through descriptive statistical analyses and multivariate logistic regression. The secondary outcomes of life status at 6 months and the length of hospital stay were also evaluated to understand the impact of MAE on patients. Results: Out of 3090 episodes, 134 (4.3%) had a postoperative MAE. The majority of the episodes were in: neonates (47%, P<0.001), high-risk cardiac diagnosis groups (20.1%, P<0.001), episodes with longer 5mes on the bypass (72.4%, P<0.001) and urgent surgeries (57.9%, P<0.001). Episodes reporting MAE also reported longer lengths of stay in hospital (29 days vs 9 days, P<0.001). Furthermore, patients experiencing MAE were at a higher risk of mortality at the 6-month life status check (mortality rates: 29.2% vs 2%, P<0.001).Conclusions: Key risk factors were identified. An important negative impact of MAE was found for patients. The identified risk factors could be used to profile and flag at-risk patients. Monitoring of MAE rates and closer investigation into the care pathway before and after individual MAEs in children’s heart units may lead to a reduction in these terrible events.

Keywords:

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Authors: Narendra Kumar

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This study uses data from the ‘National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3) 2005-06’ to investigate the predictors of infant and child mortality among low economic households in East and Northeast region. The cross tabulation, life table survival estimates and Cox proportional hazard model techniques have been used to estimate the predictors of infant and child mortality. The life table survival estimates for infant and child mortality shows that infant mortality in female child is lower in comparison to male child but with child mortality, the rates are higher for female in comparison to male child and the Cox proportional hazard model also give highly significant in female in comparison to male child. The infant and child mortality rates among poor households highest in the Central region followed by North and Northeast region and the lowest in South region in comparison to all regions of India. Education of respondent has been found a significant characteristics in both analyzes, further birth interval, respondent occupation, caste/tribe and place of delivery has substantial impact on infant and child mortality among low economic households in East and Northeast region. Finally these findings specified that an increase in parents’ education, improve health care services and improve socioeconomic conditions of low economic households which should in turn raise infant and child survival and should decrease child mortality among low economic households in India.

Keywords: infant, child, mortality, socio-economic, India

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Authors: Jitka Rychtarikova

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Regional differences in mortality in the Czech Republic (CR) may be moderate from a broader European perspective, but important discrepancies in life expectancy can be found between smaller territorial units. In this study territorial units are based on Administrative Districts of Municipalities with Extended Powers (MEP). This definition came into force January 1, 2003. There are 205 units and the city of Prague. MEP represents the smallest unit for which mortality patterns based on life tables can be investigated and the Czech Statistical Office has been calculating such life tables (every five-years) since 2004. MEP life tables from 2009-2013 for males and females allowed the investigation of three main life cycles with the use of temporary life expectancies between the exact ages of 0 and 35; 35 and 65; and the life expectancy at exact age 65. The results showed regional survival inequalities primarily in adult and older ages. Consequently, only mortality indicators for adult and elderly population were related to census 2011 unlinked data for the same age groups. The most relevant socio-economic factors taken from the census are: having a partner, educational level and unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was measured for adults aged 35-64 completed years. Exploratory spatial data analysis methods were used to detect regional patterns in spatially contiguous units of MEP. The presence of spatial non-stationarity (spatial autocorrelation) of mortality levels for male and female adults (35-64), and elderly males and females (65+) was tested using global Moran’s I. Spatial autocorrelation of mortality patterns was mapped using local Moran’s I with the intention to depict clusters of low or high mortality and spatial outliers for two age groups (35-64 and 65+). The highest Moran’s I was observed for male temporary life expectancy between exact ages 35 and 65 (0.52) and the lowest was among women with life expectancy of 65 (0.26). Generally, men showed stronger spatial autocorrelation compared to women. The relationship between mortality indicators such as life expectancies and socio-economic factors like the percentage of males/females having a partner; percentage of males/females with at least higher secondary education; and percentage of unemployed males/females from economically active population aged 35-64 years, was evaluated using multiple regression (OLS). The results were then compared to outputs from geographically weighted regression (GWR). In the Czech Republic, there are two broader territories North-West Bohemia (NWB) and North Moravia (NM), in which excess mortality is well established. Results of the t-test of spatial regression showed that for males aged 30-64 the association between mortality and unemployment (when adjusted for education and partnership) was stronger in NM compared to NWB, while educational level impacted the length of survival more in NWB. Geographic variation and relationships in mortality of the CR MEP will also be tested using the spatial Durbin approach. The calculations were conducted by means of ArcGIS 10.6 and SAS 9.4.

Keywords: Czech Republic, mortality, municipality, socio-economic factors, spatial analysis

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Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Marek Kuźniewski, Magdalena B. Kaziuk , Danuta Fedak, Paulina Dumnicka, Ewa Stępień, Beata Kuśnierz-Cabala, Władysław Sułowicz

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Background: The high prevalence of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is observed especially in those undergoing dialysis. Osteoprotegerin (OPG) and its ligands, receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B ligand (RANKL) and tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) have been associated with cardiovascular complications. Our aim was to study their role as cardiovascular risk factors in stage 5 CKD patients. Methods: OPG, RANKL and TRAIL concentrations were measured in 69 hemodialyzed CKD patients and 35 healthy volunteers. In CKD patients, cardiovascular dysfunction was assessed with aortic pulse wave velocity (AoPWV), carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT), coronary artery calcium score (CaSc) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) serum concentration. Cardiovascular and overall mortality data were collected during a 7-years follow-up. Results: OPG plasma concentrations were higher in CKD patients comparing to controls. Total soluble RANKL was lower and OPG/RANKL ratio higher in patients. Soluble TRAIL concentrations did not differ between the groups and OPG/TRAIL ratio was higher in CKD patients. OPG and OPG/TRAIL positively predicted long-term mortality (all-cause and cardiovascular) in CKD patients. OPG positively correlated with AoPWV, CCA-IMT and NT-proBNP whereas OPG/TRAIL with AoPWV and NT-proBNP. Described relationships were independent of classical and non-classical cardiovascular risk factors, with exception of age. Conclusions: Our study confirmed the role of OPG as a biomarker of cardiovascular dysfunction and a predictor of mortality in stage 5 CKD. OPG/TRAIL ratio can be proposed as a predictor of cardiovascular dysfunction and mortality.

Keywords: osteoprotegerin, tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand, receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B ligand, hemodialysis, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease

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Authors: Nurunnahar Akter, Elena Kulinskaya, Nicholas Steel, Ilyas Bakbergenuly

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Although Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) is an effective treatment in ameliorating menopausal symptoms, it has mixed effects on different health outcomes, increasing, for instance, the risk of breast cancer. Because of this, many symptomatic women are left untreated. Untreated menopausal symptoms may result in other health issues, which eventually put an extra burden and costs to the health care system. All-cause mortality analysis may explain the net benefits and risks of the HRT therapy. However, it received far less attention in HRT studies. This study investigated the impact of HRT on all-cause mortality using electronically recorded primary care data from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) that broadly represents the female population in the United Kingdom (UK). The study entry date for this study was the record of the first HRT prescription from 1984, and patients were followed up until death or transfer to another GP practice or study end date, which was January 2017. 112,354 HRT users (cases) were matched with 245,320 non-users by age at HRT initiation and general practice (GP). The hazards of all-cause mortality associated with HRT were estimated by a parametric Weibull-Cox model adjusting for a wide range of important medical, lifestyle, and socio-demographic factors. The multilevel multiple imputation techniques were used to deal with missing data. This study found that during 32 years of follow-up, combined HRT reduced the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality by 9% (HR: 0.91; 95% Confidence Interval, 0.88-0.94) in women of age between 46 to 65 at first treatment compared to the non-users of the same age. Age-specific mortality analyses found that combined HRT decreased mortality by 13% (HR: 0.87; 95% CI, 0.82-0.92), 12% (HR: 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82-0.93), and 8% (HR: 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85-0.98), in 51 to 55, 56 to 60, and 61 to 65 age group at first treatment, respectively. There was no association between estrogen-only HRT and women’s all-cause mortality. The findings from this study may help to inform the choices of women at menopause and to further educate the clinicians and resource planners.

Keywords: hormone replacement therapy, multiple imputations, primary care data, the health improvement network (THIN)

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Authors: Ibrahim Ahmed, Richard Amoateng, Akhil Jain, Mohamed Ahmed

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Alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM) is a type of acquired cardiomyopathy caused by chronic alcohol consumption. Frequently ACM is associated with arrhythmias such as atrial flutter. Our aim was to characterize the patient demographics and investigate the effect of atrial flutter (AF) on ACM. This was a retrospective cohort study using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample database to identify admissions in adults with principal and secondary diagnoses of alcoholic cardiomyopathy and atrial flutter from 2019. Multivariate linear and logistic regression models were adjusted for age, gender, race, household income, insurance status, Elixhauser comorbidity score, hospital location, bed size, and teaching status. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, and secondary outcomes were the length of stay (LOS) and total charge in USD. There was a total of 21,855 admissions with alcoholic cardiomyopathy, of which 1,635 had atrial flutter (AF-ACM). Compared to Non-AF-ACM cohort, AF-ACM cohort had fewer females (4.89% vs 14.54%, p<0.001), were older (58.66 vs 56.13 years, p<0.001), fewer Native Americans (0.61% vs2.67%, p<0.01), had fewer smaller (19.27% vs 22.45%, p<0.01) & medium-sized hospitals (23.24% vs28.98%, p<0.01), but more large-sized hospitals (57.49% vs 48.57%, p<0.01), more Medicare (40.37% vs 34.08%, p<0.05) and fewer Medicaid insured (23.55% vs 33.70%, p=<0.001), fewer hypertension (10.7% vs 15.01%, p<0.05), and more obesity (24.77% vs 16.35%, p<0.001). Compared to Non-AF-ACM cohort, there was no difference in AF-ACM cohort mortality rate (6.13% vs 4.20%, p=0.0998), unadjusted mortality OR 1.49 (95% CI 0.92-2.40, p=0.102), adjusted mortality OR 1.36 (95% CI 0.83-2.24, p=0.221), but there was a difference in LOS 1.23 days (95% CI 0.34-2.13, p<0.01), total charge $28,860.30 (95% CI 11,883.96-45,836.60, p<0.01). In patients admitted with ACM, the presence of AF was not associated with a higher all-cause mortality rate or odds of all-cause mortality; however, it was associated with 1.23 days increase in LOS and a $28,860.30 increase in total hospitalization charge. Native Americans, older age and obesity were risk factors for the presence of AF in ACM.

Keywords: alcoholic cardiomyopathy, atrial flutter, cardiomyopathy, arrhythmia

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Authors: Yu-Chuan Huang

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Introduction: There is a higher mortality rate for unplanned transfer to intensive care units. It also needs a longer length of stay and makes the intensive care unit beds cannot be effectively used. It affects the immediate medical treatment of critically ill patients, resulting in a drop in the quality of medical care. Purpose: The purpose of this study was using SOFA and APACHEII score to analyze the mortality rate of the cases transferred from ED to ICU. According to the score that should be provide an appropriate care as early as possible. Methods: This study was a descriptive experimental design. The sample size was estimated at 220 to reach a power of 0.8 for detecting a medium effect size of 0.30, with a 0.05 significance level, using G-power. Considering an estimated follow-up loss, the required sample size was estimated as 242 participants. Data were calculated by medical system of SOFA and APACHEII score that cases transferred from ED to ICU in 2016. Results: There were 233 participants meet the study. The medical records showed 33 participants’ mortality. Age and sex with QSOFA , SOFA and sex with APACHEII showed p>0.05. Age with APCHHII in ED and ICU showed r=0.150, 0,268 (p < 0.001**). The score with mortality risk showed: ED QSOFA is r=0.235 (p < 0.001**), exp(B)=1.685(p = 0.007); ICU SOFA 0.78 (p < 0.001**), exp(B)=1.205(p < 0.001). APACHII in ED and ICU showed r= 0.253, 0.286 (p < 0.001**), exp(B) = 1.041,1.073(p = 0.017,0.001). For SOFA, a cutoff score of above 15 points was identified as a predictor of the 95% mortality risk. Conclusions: The SOFA and APACHE II were calculated based on initial laboratory data in the Emergency Department, and during the first 24 hours of ICU admission. In conclusion, the SOFA and APACHII score is significantly associated with mortality and strongly predicting mortality. Early predictors of morbidity and mortality, which we can according the predicting score, and provide patients with a detail assessment and proper care, thereby reducing mortality and length of stay.

Keywords: SOFA, APACHEII, mortality, ICU

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Authors: Maria L. G. Lourenço, Keylla H. N. P. Pereira, Viviane Y. Hibaru, Fabiana F. Souza, João C. P. Ferreira, Simone B. Chiacchio, Luiz H. A. Machado

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The neonatal mortality rates in dogs are considered high, varying between 5.7 and 21.2% around the world, and the causes of the deaths are often unknown. Data regarding canine neonatal mortality are scarce in Brazil. This study aims at describing the neonatal mortality rates in dogs, as well as the main causes of death. The study included 152 litters and 669 neonates admitted to the São Paulo State University (UNESP) Veterinary Hospital, Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil between January 2018 and September 2019. The overall mortality rate was 16.7% (112/669), with 40% (61/152) of the litters presenting at least one case of stillbirth or neonatal mortality. The rate of stillbirths was 7.7% (51/669), while the neonatal mortality rate was 9% (61/669). The early mortality rate (0 to 2 days) was 13.7% (92/669), accounting for 82.1% (92/112) of all deaths. The late mortality rate (3 to 30 days) was 2.7% (18/669), accounting for 16% (18/112) of all deaths. Infection was the causa mortis in 51.8% (58/112) of the newborns, of which 30.3% (34/112) were caused by bacterial sepsis, and 21.4% (24/112) were caused by other bacterial, viral or parasite infections. Other causes of death included congenital malformations (15.2%, 17/112), of which 5.3% (6/112) happened through euthanasia due to malformations incompatible with life; asphyxia/hypoxia by dystocia (9.8%, 11/112); wasting syndrome in debilitated newborns (6.2%, 7/112); aspiration pneumonia (3.6%, 4/112); agalactia (2.7%, 3/112); trauma (1.8%, 2/112); administration of contraceptives to the mother (1.8%, 2/112) and unknown causes (7.1%, 8/112). The neonatal mortality rate was considered high, but they may be even higher in locations without adequate care for the mothers and neonates. Therefore, prenatal examinations and early neonatal care are of utmost importance for the survival of these patients.

Keywords: neonate dogs, puppies, mortality rate, neonatal death

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Authors: Aschenaki Zerihun Kea, Bernt Lindtjorn, Achamyelesh Gebretsadik, Sven Gudmund Hinderaker

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Introduction: Maternal mortality studies conducted at the national level do not provide the information needed for planning and monitoring health programs at lower administrative levels. The aim of this study was to measure maternal mortality, identify risk factors and district-level variations in Sidama National Regional State, southern Ethiopia. Methods: A cross sectional population-based survey was carried out in households where women reported pregnancy and birth outcomes in the past five years. The study was conducted in the Sidama National Regional State, southern Ethiopia, from July 2019 to May 2020. Multi-stage cluster sampling technique was employed. The outcome variable of the study was maternal mortality. Complex sample logistic regression analysis was applied to assess variables independently associated with maternal mortality. Results: We registered 10602 live births (LB) and 48 maternal deaths, yielding an overall maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 419; 95% CI: 260-577 per 100,000 LB. Aroresa district had the highest MMR with 1142 (95% CI: 693-1591) per 100,000 LB. Leading causes of death were haemorrhage 21 (41%) and eclampsia 10 (27%). Thirty (59%) mothers died during labour, or within 24 hours after delivery, 25 (47%) died at home and 17 (38%) at a health facility. Mothers who did not have formal education had a higher risk of maternal death (AOR: 4.4; 95% CI: 1.7 – 11.0). The risk of maternal death was higher in districts with a low midwife-to-population ratio (AOR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.0-8.9). Conclusion: The high maternal mortality with district-level variations in Sidama Region highlights the importance of improving obstetric care and employing targeted interventions in areas with high mortality rates. Due attention should be given to improving access to female education. Additional midwives have to be trained and deployed to improve maternal health services and consequently save the lives of mothers.

Keywords: maternal mortality variation, maternal death, Sidama, Ethiopia

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Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

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Authors: Yin-Yee Leong, Jack C. Yue, Hsin-Chung Wang

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Human longevity has been experiencing its largest increase since the end of World War II, and modeling the mortality rates is therefore often the focus of many studies. Among all mortality models, the Lee–Carter model is the most popular approach since it is fairly easy to use and has good accuracy in predicting mortality rates (e.g., for Japan and the USA). However, empirical studies from several countries have shown that the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant in time. Many modifications of the Lee–Carter model have been proposed to deal with this problem, including adding an extra cohort effect and adding another period effect. In this study, we propose a spatial modification and use clusters to explain why the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant. In spatial analysis, clusters are areas with unusually high or low mortality rates than their neighbors, where the “location” of mortality rates is measured by age and time, that is, a 2-dimensional coordinate. We use a popular cluster detection method—Spatial scan statistics, a local statistical test based on the likelihood ratio test to evaluate where there are locations with mortality rates that cannot be described well by the Lee–Carter model. We first use computer simulation to demonstrate that the cluster effect is a possible source causing the problem of the age parameters not being constant. Next, we show that adding the cluster effect can solve the non-constant problem. We also apply the proposed approach to mortality data from Japan, France, the USA, and Taiwan. The empirical results show that our approach has better-fitting results and smaller mean absolute percentage errors than the Lee–Carter model.

Keywords: mortality improvement, Lee–Carter model, spatial statistics, cluster detection

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Authors: Mujahid Ali, Wasif Mohammed Ali, Meraj Ahmad

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Background: Perforation peritonitis is the most common surgical emergency encountered by surgeons all over the world as well as in India. The etiology of perforation peritonitis in India continues to be different from its western counterparts. The aim of this study is to evaluate the spectrum of cases of perforation peritonitis at our hospital. Methods: A prospective study conducted includes three hundred thirtysix patients of perforation peritonitis at J. N. Medical College from October 2015 to July 2017. The patients were admitted, resuscitated and underwent emergency laparotomy. Data were collected in terms of demographic profile, clinical presentations, site of perforations, causes and surgical outcomes. Results: In this study, the most common cause of perforation peritonitis was peptic ulcer disease (43%), followed by enteric perforation (12.8%), tubercular perforation (12.5%), traumatic perforation (11.9%), appendicular perforation (9.8%), amoebic caecal perforation (3%), malignant perforation (1.5%), etc. The sites of perforations were stomach in majority (38.3%), ileum (31%), appendix (8%), duodenum (5.%), caecum (4.4%) ,colon (3%), jejunum (8.5%) and gall bladder (2%). The overall mortality was 21% in our study. Age >50 years (p= <0.0001, OR= 3.9260, CI= 2.2 to 6.9), organ failure (p= <0.0001, OR= 29.2, CI= 14.8 to 57.6), shock (p=<0.0001, OR=20.20, CI= 10.56 to 38.6), diffuse peritonitis (p<0.0015, OR= 6.8810, CI= 2.09 to 22.57) and faecal exudates (p<0.0001) were found to be significant factors affecting mortality. The most common complication associated was superficial wound infection (40%), followed by burst abdomen seen in 21% cases, intra-abdominal sepsis in 18% cases, electrolyte imbalances in 15% cases, anastomotic leak in 6% cases. Conclusion: In this study, stomach is the most common site of perforation with peptic ulcer disease being the most common etiology. Older age, presence of shock, organ failure and faecal peritonitis were the risk factors affecting the mortality of the patients. Early recognition, adequate resuscitation and referral of patients can influence outcome and reduces mortality as well as morbidity.

Keywords: etiology, mortality, perforation, spectrum

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Authors: Ilham Akbar Rahman, Aflah Dhea Bariz Yasta, Iin Fadhilah Utami Tamasse, Devina Juanita

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Meningioma is adult brain tumors originating from the meninges covering the brain and spinal cord. The females have approximately twice higher 2:1 than male in the incidence of meningioma. This study aimed to analyze the histopathological grading and clinical aspect in predicting the prognosis of meningioma patients. An observational study with cross sectional design was used on 53 meningioma patients treated at Dr. Wahidin Sudirohusodo hospital in 2016. The data then were analyzed using SPSS 20.0. Of 53 patients, mostly 41 (77,4%) were female and 12 (22,6%) were male. The distribution of histopathology patients showed the meningothelial meningioma of 18 (43,9%) as the most type found. Fibroplastic meningioma were 8 (19,5%), while atypical meningioma and psammomatous meningioma were 6 (14,6%) each. The rest were malignant meningioma and angiomatous meningioma which found in respectively 2 (4,9%) and 1 (2,4%). Our result found significant finding that mostly male were fibroblastic meningioma (50%), however meningothelial meningioma were found in the majority of female (54,8%) and also seizure comprised only in higher grade meningioma. On the outcome of meningioma patient treated operatively, histopathological grade remained insignificant (p > 0,05). This study can be used as prognostic value of meningioma patients based on gender, histopathological grade, and clinical manifestation. Overall, the outcome of the meningioma’s patients is good and promising as long as it is well managed.

Keywords: meningioma, prognostic value, histopathological grading, clinical manifestation

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Authors: Joella Mukashyaka, Rose Mukarubayiza, Emmanuel Habumugisha, Francois-Xavier Sunday, Kellen Muganwa, Valens Mbarushimana, Pamela Meharry

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Background: Breastfeeding in the first hour post-birth can decrease neonatal morbidity and mortality. Disease prevention and health outcomes differ immensely between newborns who receive human milk and those who do not. Rwanda has high breastfeeding rates, though factors associated with early initiation of breastfeeding (EIBF) are unknown. Objective: To assess factors associated with EIBF among mothers in immediate postpartum units at two hospitals. Methods: A cross-sectional study design and a convenience sample of 187 mothers were used. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used for data collection. A Chi-square test showed the relationship between EIBF and sociodemographic factors. Results: The findings showed less than one quarter (20.5%) breastfed within the first hour after birth. The majority was < 25 years (52.4%), had some primary education (27.7%) employed (66.7%), urban dweller (58.1%), attendance of one ANC visit or more (81.3%), vaginal birth (58.8%), and did not receive EIBF health education (92.0%). The majority (78.5%) was too tired to initiate breastfeeding, and many supplemented (41.9%) due to perceived insufficient breastmilk. Conclusion: Most mothers did not initiate breastfeeding within the first hour after birth. Sociodemographic factors were associated with EIBF. A program to promote, protect, and support EIBF is urgently needed the community.

Keywords: breastfeeding, early initiation, neonates, morbidity, mortality, sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Ahmed Ali Hassan

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In 2016, the Fall Armyworm (FAW) was first discovered in Africa. FAW is abundantly present in Somalia and seriously harms the maize crop. This investigation examined the impact on maize productivity of three different pesticides used to combat the autumn armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera). During the 2020–2021 growing season, three insecticides (Malathion 57 EC, Ampligo150 ZC, and Carbryle 85 WP) were evaluated at field demonstration plots. Our result showed that, significant mortality of S. frugiperda was observed on the treatment plot treated with Amplico. Ampligo caused over 90% larval mortality after application. Malathion had moderate activity, causing 53.733% mortality after application, while Carbaryl was less effective, causing 36.367% mortality after application. Consequently, the current finding shows that the three selected insecticides reduced the damage and infestation level of S. frugiperda in the maize field conditions and the most effective treatment were Amplico.

Keywords: pesticides, maize fall army worm, insecticides, mortality, S. frugiperda

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Authors: Madan Khadka, Dhruba Uprety, Rubina Rai

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Background and objective: In 2011, around 273,465 women died worldwide during pregnancy, childbirth or within 42 days after childbirth. Near-miss is recognized as the predictor of the level of care and maternal death. The objective of the study was to evaluate the associated risk factors of near-miss obstetric cases and maternal death. Material and Methods A Prospective Observational Study was done from August 1, 2014, to June 30, 2015, in Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology at BPKIHS hospital, tertiary care hospital in Eastern Nepal, Dharan. Case eligible by the 5-factor scoring system and WHO near miss criteria were evaluated. Risk factors included severe hemorrhage, hypertensive disorders, and a complication of abortion, ruptured uterus, medical/surgical condition and sepsis. Results: A total of 9,727 delivery were attended during the study period from August 2014 to June 2014. There were 6307 (71.5%) vaginal delivery and 2777(28.5%) caesarean section and 181 perinatal death with a total of 9,546 live birth. A total of 162 near miss was identified, and 16 maternal death occurred during the study. Maternal near miss rate of 16.6 per 1000 live birth, Women with life-threatening conditions (WLTC) of 172, Severe maternal outcome ratio of 18.64 per 1000 live birth, Maternal near-miss mortality ratio (MNM: 1 MD) 10.1:1, Mortality index (MI) of 8.98%. Risk factors were obstetric hemorrhage 27.8%, abortion/ectopic 27.2%, eclampsia 16%, medical/surgical condition 14.8%, sepsis 13.6%, severe preeclamsia 11.1%, ruptured uterus 3.1%, and molar pregnancy 1.9%. 19.75% were prim gravidae, with mean age 25.66 yrs, and cardiovascular and coagulation dysfunction as a major life threatening condition and sepsis (25%) was the major cause of mortality. Conclusion: Hemorrhage and hypertensive disorders are the leading causes of near miss event and sepsis as a leading cause of mortality. As near miss analysis indicates the quality of health care, it is worth presenting in national indices.

Keywords: abortion, eclampsia, hemorrhage, maternal mortility, near miss

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Authors: Kamel Abdelaziz Mohamed

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Intoduction:Inadequate knowledge about obstetric admission and infrequent dealing with the obstetric patients in ICU results in high mortality and morbidity. Aim of the work:To evaluate the indications, course, severity of illness, and outcome of obstetric patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Patients and Methods: We collected baseline data and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores. ICU mortality was the primary outcome. Results: Seventy obstetric patients were admitted to the ICU over 3 years, 36 of these patients (51.4 %) were admitted during the antepartum period. The primary obstetric indication for ICU admission was pregnancy-induced hypertension (22 patients, 31.4%), followed by sepsis (8 patients, 11.4%) as the leading non-obstetric admission. The mean APACHE II score was 19.6. The predicted mortality rate based on the APACHE II score was 22%, however, only 4 maternal deaths (5.7%) were among the obstetric patients admitted to the ICU. Conclusion: Evaluation of obstetric patients by (APACHE II) scores showed higher predicted mortality rate, however the overall mortality was lower. Regular follow up, together with early detection of complications and prompt ICU admission necessitating proper management by specialized team can improve mortality.

Keywords: obstetric, complication, postpartum, sepsis

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