Search results for: prognostic value

Authors: Minzi Mao, Jianjun Ren, Yu Zhao

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Objectives: The absence of a uniform staging scheme for temporal bone carcinoma (TBC) seriously impedes the improvement of its management strategies. Therefore, this research was aimed to investigate the prognostic values of two currently applying staging schemes, namely, the modified Pittsburgh staging system (MPB) and Stell’s T classification (Stell-T) in patients with TBC. Methods: Areal-world single-institution retrospectivereview of patientsdiagnosed with TBC between2008 and 2019 was performed. Baseline characteristics were extracted, and patients were retrospectively staged by both the MPB and Stell-T classifications. Cox regression analyseswereconductedtocomparetheoverall survival (OS). Results: A total of 69 consecutive TBC patients were included in thisstudy. Univariate analysis showed that both Stell-T and T- classifications of the modified Pittsburgh staging system (MPB-T) were significant prognostic factors for all TBC patients as well as temporal bone squamous cell carcinoma (TBSCC, n=50) patients (P < 0.05). However, only Stell-T was confirmed to be an independent prognostic factor in TBSCC patients (P = 0.004). Conclusions: Tumor extensions, quantified by both Stell-T and MPB-T classifications, are significant prognostic factors for TBC patients, especially for TBSCC patients. However, only the Stell-T classification is an independent prognostic factor for TBSCC patients.

Keywords: modified pittsburgh staging system, overall survival, prognostic factor, stell’s T- classification, temporal bone carcinoma

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Authors: M. G. R. S. Perera, B. S. Weerakoon, L. P. G. Sherminie, M. L. Jayatilake, R. D. Jayasinghe, W. Huang

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The aim of this study was to measure and evaluate the Longitudinal Relaxation Times (T1) in bone marrow of an Acute Myeloid Leukaemia (AML) patient in order to explore the potential for a prognostic biomarker using Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) which will be a non-invasive prognostic approach to AML. MR image data were collected in the DICOM format and MATLAB Simulink software was used in the image processing and data analysis. For quantitative MRI data analysis, Region of Interests (ROI) on multiple image slices were drawn encompassing vertebral bodies of L3, L4, and L5. T1 was evaluated using the T1 maps obtained. The estimated bone marrow mean value of T1 was 790.1 (ms) at 3T. However, the reported T1 value of healthy subjects is significantly (946.0 ms) higher than the present finding. This suggests that the T1 for bone marrow can be considered as a potential prognostic biomarker for AML patients.

Keywords: acute myeloid leukaemia, longitudinal relaxation time, magnetic resonance imaging, prognostic biomarker.

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Authors: Débora V. Busman, Venerando E. Amaro, Mattheus da C. Prudêncio

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Prognostic studies of the shoreline are of utmost importance for Ponta Negra Beach, located in Natal, Northeastern Brazil, where the infrastructure recently built along the shoreline is severely affected by flooding and erosion. This study compares shoreline predictions using three linear regression methods (LMS, LRR and WLR) and tries to discern the best method for different shoreline position scenarios. The methods have shown erosion on the beach in each of the scenarios tested, even in less intense dynamic conditions. The WLA_A with confidence interval of 95% was the well-adjusted model and calculated a retreat of -1.25 m/yr to -2.0 m/yr in hot spot areas. The change of the shoreline on Ponta Negra Beach can be measured as a negative exponential curve. Analysis of these methods has shown a correlation with the morphodynamic stage of the beach.

Keywords: coastal erosion, prognostic model, DSAS, environmental safety

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Authors: Ilham Akbar Rahman, Aflah Dhea Bariz Yasta, Iin Fadhilah Utami Tamasse, Devina Juanita

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Meningioma is adult brain tumors originating from the meninges covering the brain and spinal cord. The females have approximately twice higher 2:1 than male in the incidence of meningioma. This study aimed to analyze the histopathological grading and clinical aspect in predicting the prognosis of meningioma patients. An observational study with cross sectional design was used on 53 meningioma patients treated at Dr. Wahidin Sudirohusodo hospital in 2016. The data then were analyzed using SPSS 20.0. Of 53 patients, mostly 41 (77,4%) were female and 12 (22,6%) were male. The distribution of histopathology patients showed the meningothelial meningioma of 18 (43,9%) as the most type found. Fibroplastic meningioma were 8 (19,5%), while atypical meningioma and psammomatous meningioma were 6 (14,6%) each. The rest were malignant meningioma and angiomatous meningioma which found in respectively 2 (4,9%) and 1 (2,4%). Our result found significant finding that mostly male were fibroblastic meningioma (50%), however meningothelial meningioma were found in the majority of female (54,8%) and also seizure comprised only in higher grade meningioma. On the outcome of meningioma patient treated operatively, histopathological grade remained insignificant (p > 0,05). This study can be used as prognostic value of meningioma patients based on gender, histopathological grade, and clinical manifestation. Overall, the outcome of the meningioma’s patients is good and promising as long as it is well managed.

Keywords: meningioma, prognostic value, histopathological grading, clinical manifestation

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Authors: Shu-Pin Huang, Pai-Chi Teng, Hao-Han Chang, Chia-Hsin Liu, Yung-Lun Lin, Shu-Chi Wang, Hsin-Chih Yeh, Chih-Pin Chuu, Jiun-Hung Geng, Li-Hsin Chang, Wei-Chung Cheng, Chia-Yang Li

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The emergence of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) targeting proteins like PD-1 and PD-L1 has changed the treatment paradigm of bladder cancer. However, not all patients benefit from ICIs, with some experiencing early death. There's a significant need for biomarkers associated with the PD-1 pathway in bladder cancer. Current biomarkers focus on tumor PD-L1 expression, but a more comprehensive understanding of PD-1-related biology is needed. Our study has developed a seven-gene risk score panel, employing a comprehensive bioinformatics strategy, which could serve as a potential prognostic and predictive biomarker for bladder cancer. This panel incorporates the FYN, GRAP2, TRIB3, MAP3K8, AKT3, CD274, and CD80 genes. Additionally, we examined the relationship between this panel and immune cell function, utilizing validated tools such as ESTIMATE, TIDE, and CIBERSORT. Our seven-genes panel has been found to be significantly associated with bladder cancer survival in two independent cohorts. The panel was also significantly correlated with tumor infiltration lymphocytes, immune scores, and tumor purity. These factors have been previously reported to have clinical implications on ICIs. The findings suggest the potential of a PD-1 pathway-based transcriptomic panel as a prognostic and predictive biomarker in bladder cancer, which could help optimize treatment strategies and improve patient outcomes.

Keywords: bladder cancer, programmed cell death protein 1, prognostic biomarker, immune checkpoint inhibitors, predictive biomarker

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Authors: Reham H. Soliman, Noha Noufal, Howayda AbdelAal

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Calcium/calmodulin-dependent serine protein kinase (CASK) belongs to the membrane-associated guanylate kinase (MAGUK) family and has been proposed as a mediator of cell-cell adhesion and proliferation, which can contribute to tumorogenesis. CASK has been linked as a good prognostic factor with some tumor subtypes, while considered as a poor prognostic marker in others. To our knowledge, no sufficient evidence of CASK role in colorectal cancer is available. The aim of this study is to evaluate the expression of Calcium/calmodulin-dependent serine protein kinase (CASK) in non-mucinous colorectal adenocarcinoma and adenomatous polyps as precursor lesions and assess its prognostic significance. The study included 42 cases of conventional colorectal adenocarcinoma and 15 biopsies of adenomatous polyps with variable degrees of dysplasia. They were reviewed for clinicopathological prognostic factors and stained by CASK; mouse, monoclonal antibody using heat-induced antigen retrieval immunohistochemical techniques. The results showed that CASK protein was significantly overexpressed (p <0.05) in CRC compared with adenoma samples. The CASK protein was overexpressed in the majority of CRC samples with 85.7% of cases showing moderate to strong expression, while 46.7% of adenomas were positive. CASK overexpression was significantly correlated with both TNM stage and grade of differentiation (p <0.05). There was a significantly higher expression in tumor samples with early stages (I/II) rather than advanced stage (III/IV) and with low grade (59.5%) rather than high grade (40.5%). Another interesting finding was found among the adenomas group, where the stronger intensity of staining was observed in samples with high grade dysplasia (33.3%) than those of lower grades (13.3%). In conclusion, this study shows that there is significant overexpression of CASK protein in CRC as well as in adenomas with high grade dysplasia. This indicates that CASK is involved in the process of carcinogenesis and functions as a potential trigger of the adenoma-carcinoma cascade. CASK was significantly overexpressed in early stage and low-grade tumors rather than tumors with advanced stage and higher histological grades. This suggests that CASK protein is a good prognostic factor. We suggest that CASK affects CRC in two different ways derived from its physiology. CASK as part of MAGUK family can stimulate proliferation and through its cell membrane localization and as a mediator of cell-cell adhesion might contribute in tumor confinement and localization.

Keywords: CASK, colorectal cancer, overexpression, prognosis

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Authors: Yao Song, Danni Cheng, Jianjun Ren

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Objectives: We aimed to explore the prognostic effects of absolute values and dynamic changes of common hematological indices on oropharynx squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients treated with radiation. Methods and materials: The absolute values of white blood cell (WBC), absolute neutrophil count (ANC), absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), hemoglobin (Hb), platelet (Plt), albumin (Alb), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) at baseline (within 45 days before radiation), 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-months after the start of radiotherapy were retrospectively collected. Locally-estimated smoothing scatterplots were used to describe the smooth trajectory of each index. A mixed-effect model with a random slope was fitted to describe the changing rate and trend of indices over time. Cox proportional hazard analysis was conducted to assess the correlation between hematological indices and treatment outcomes. Results: Of the enrolled 85 OPSCC patients, inflammatory indices, such as WBC and ALC, dropped rapidly during acute treatment and gradually recovered, while NLR and PLR increased at first three months and subsequently declined within 3-12 months. Higher absolute value or increasing trend of nutritional indices (Alb and Hb) was associated with better prognosis (all p<0.05). In contrast, patients with higher absolute value or upward trend of inflammatory indices (WBC, ANC, Plt, PLR and NLR) had worse survival (all p<0.05). Conclusions: The absolute values and dynamic changes of hematological indices were valuable prognostic factors for OPSCC patients who underwent radiotherapy.

Keywords: hematological indices, oropharyngeal cancer, radiotherapy, NLR, PLR

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Authors: Lucia Salvioni, Pietro Giorgio Lovaglio, Valerio Leoni, Miriam Colombo, Luisa Fiandra

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The involvement of plasmatic surfactant protein-D (SP-D) in pulmonary diseases has been long investigated, and over the last two years, more interest has been directed to determine its role as a marker of COVID-19. In this direction, several studies aimed to correlate pulmonary surfactant proteins with the clinical manifestations of the virus indicated SP-D as a prognostic biomarker of COVID-19 pneumonia severity. The present work has performed a retrospective study on a relatively large cohort of patients of Hospital Pio XI of Desio (Lombardia, Italy) with the aim to assess differences in the hematic SP-D concentrations among COVID-19 patients and healthy donors and the role of SP-D as a prognostic marker of severity and/or of mortality risk. The obtained results showed a significant difference in the mean of log SP-D levels between COVID-19 patients and healthy donors, so as between dead and survived patients. SP-D values were significantly higher for both hospitalized COVID-19 and dead patients, with threshold values of 150 and 250 ng/mL, respectively. SP-D levels at admission and increasing differences among follow-up and admission values resulted in the strongest significant risk factors of mortality. Therefore, this study demonstrated the role of SP-D as a predictive marker of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its outcome. A significant correlation of SP-D with patient mortality indicated that it is also a prognostic factor in terms of mortality, and its early detection should be considered to design adequate preventive treatments for COVID-19 patients.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19, surfactant protein-D (SP-D), mortality, biomarker

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Authors: Renata Checiches, Thierry Coche, Nicolas F. Delahaye, Albert Linder, Fernando Ulloa Montoya, Olivier Gruselle, Karen Langfeld, An de Creus, Bart Spiessens, Vincent G. Brichard, Jamila Louahed, Frédéric F. Lehmann

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Background: The RNA-expression levels of cancer-testis antigens MAGE A3 and PRAME were determined in resected tissue from patients with primary non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and related to clinical outcome. EGFR, KRAS and BRAF mutation status was determined in a subset to investigate associations with MAGE A3 and PRAME expression. Methods: We conducted a single-centre, uncontrolled, retrospective study of 1260 tissue-bank samples from stage IA-III resected NSCLC. The prognostic value of antigen expression (qRT-PCR) was determined by hazard-ratio and Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: Thirty-seven percent (314/844) of tumours expressed MAGE-A3, 66% (723/1092) expressed PRAME and 31% (239/839) expressed both. Respective frequencies in squamous-cell tumours and adenocarcinomas were 43%/30% for MAGE A3 and 80%/44% for PRAME. No correlation with stage, tumour size or patient age was found. Overall, no prognostic value was identified for either antigen. A trend to poorer overall survival was associated with MAGE-A3 in stage IIIB and with PRAME in stage IB. EGFR and KRAS mutations were found in 10.1% (28/311) and 33.8% (97/311) of tumours, respectively. EGFR (but not KRAS) mutation status was negatively associated with PRAME expression. Conclusion: No clear prognostic value for either PRAME or MAGE A3 was observed in the overall population, although some observed trends may warrant further investigation.

Keywords: MAGE A3, PRAME, cancer-testis gene, NSCLC, survival, EGFR

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Authors: Wendu Pang, Yaxin Luo, Junhong Li, Yu Zhao, Danni Cheng, Yufang Rao, Minzi Mao, Ke Qiu, Yijun Dong, Fei Chen, Jun Liu, Jian Zou, Haiyang Wang, Wei Xu, Jianjun Ren

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We aimed to compare the prognostic prediction value of positive lymph node number (PLNN) to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor, lymph node, and metastasis (TNM) staging system for patients with hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPSCC). A total of 826 patients with HPSCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2004–2015) were identified and split into two independent cohorts: training (n=461) and validation (n=365). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the prognostic effects of PLNN in patients with HPSCC. We further applied six Cox regression models to compare the survival predictive values of the PLNN and AJCC TNM staging system. PLNN showed a significant association with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) (P < 0.001) in both univariate and multivariable analyses, and was divided into three groups (PLNN 0, PLNN 1-5, and PLNN>5). In the training cohort, multivariate analysis revealed that the increased PLNN of HPSCC gave rise to significantly poor OS and CSS after adjusting for age, sex, tumor size, and cancer stage; this trend was also verified by the validation cohort. Additionally, the survival model incorporating a composite of PLNN and TNM classification (C-index, 0.705, 0.734) performed better than the PLNN and AJCC TNM models. PLNN can serve as a powerful survival predictor for patients with HPSCC and is a surrogate supplement for cancer staging systems.

Keywords: hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, positive lymph nodes number, prognosis, prediction models, survival predictive values

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Authors: Fasil Wagnew, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Setegn Eshetie, Tom Wingfield, Matthew Kelly, Darren Gray

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Introduction: Undernutrition is a major and under-appreciated risk factor for TB, which is estimated to be responsible for 1.9 million TB cases per year globally. The effectiveness of micronutrient supplementation on TB treatment outcomes and its prognostic markers such as sputum conversion and serum zinc, retinol, and hemoglobin levels has been poorly understood. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine the association between zinc and vitamin A supplementation and TB treatment outcomes and its prognostic markers. Methods: A systematic literature search for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was performed in PubMed, Embase, and Scopus databases. Meta-analysis with a random effect model was performed to estimate risk ratio (RR) and mean difference (MD), with a 95% confidence interval (CI), for dichotomous and continuous outcomes, respectively. Results: Our search identified 2,195 records. Of these, nine RCTs consisting of 1,375 participants were included in the final analyses. Among adults with pulmonary TB, zinc (RR: 0.94, 95%CI: 0.86, 1.03), vitamin A (RR: 0.90, 95%CI: 0.80, 1.01), and combined zinc and vitamin A (RR: 0.98, 95%CI: 0.89, 1.08) supplementation were not significantly associated with TB treatment success. Combined zinc and vitamin A supplementation was significantly associated with increased sputum smear conversion at 2 months (RR: 1.16, 95%CI: 1.03, 1.32), serum zinc levels at 2 months (MD of 0.86umol/l, 95% CI: 0.14, 1.57), serum retinol levels at 2 months (MD: 0.06umol/l, 95 % CI: 0.04, 0.08) and 6 months (MD: 0.12umol/l, 95 % CI: 0.10, 0.14), and serum hemoglobin level at 6 months (MD: 0.29 ug/dl, 95% CI: 0.08 to 0.51), among adults with TB. Conclusions: Providing zinc and vitamin A supplementation to adults with pulmonary TB during treatment may increase early sputum smear conversion, serum zinc, retinol, and hemoglobin levels. However, the use of zinc, vitamin A, or both were not associated with TB treatment success.

Keywords: zinc and vitamin A supplementation, tuberculosis, treatment outcomes, meta-analysis, RCT

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Authors: Jasminka Mujic, Karin Milde-Langosch, Volkmar Mueller, Mirza Suljagic, Tea Becirevic, Jozo Coric, Daria Ler

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MACC1 (metastasis associated in colon cancer-1) is a prognostic biomarker for tumor progression, metastasis, and survival of a variety of solid cancers. MACC1 also causes tumor growth in xenograft models and acts as a master regulator of the HGF/MET signaling pathway. In breast cancer, the expression of MACC1 determined by immunohistochemistry was significantly associated with positive lymph node status and advanced clinical stage. The aim of the present study was to further investigate the prognostic or predictive value of MACC1 expression in breast cancer using western blot analysis and immunohistochemistry. The results of our study have shown that high MACC1 expression in breast cancer is associated with shorter disease-free survival, especially in node-negative tumors. The MACC1 might be a suitable biomarker to select patients with a higher probability of recurrence which might benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. Our results support a biologic role and potentially open the perspective for the use of MACC1 as predictive biomarker for treatment decision in breast cancer patients.

Keywords: breast cancer, biomarker, HGF/MET, MACC1

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Authors: Sarocha Vivatvakin, Thanaporn Ratchataswan, Thiratest Leesutipornchai, Komkrit Ruangritchankul, Somboon Keelawat, Virachai Kerekhanjanarong, Patnarin Mahattanasakul, Saknan Bongsebandhu-Phubhakdi

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In this globalization era, much attention has been drawn to various molecular biomarkers, which may have the potential to predict the progression of cancer. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is the classic member of the ErbB family of membrane-associated intrinsic tyrosine kinase receptors. EGFR expression was found in several organs throughout the body as its roles involve in the regulation of cell proliferation, survival, and differentiation in normal physiologic conditions. However, anomalous expression, whether over- or under-expression is believed to be the underlying mechanism of pathologic conditions, including carcinogenesis. Even though numerous discussions regarding the EGFR as a prognostic tool in head and neck cancer have been established, the consensus has not yet been met. The aims of the present study are to assess the correlation between the level of EGFR expression and demographic data as well as clinicopathological features and to evaluate the ability of EGFR as a reliable prognostic marker. Furthermore, another aim of this study is to investigate the probable pathophysiology that explains the finding results. This retrospective study included 30 squamous cell laryngeal carcinoma patients treated at King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004. EGFR expression level was observed to be significantly downregulated with the progression of the laryngeal cancer stage. (one way ANOVA, p = 0.001) A statistically significant lower EGFR expression in the late stage of the disease compared to the early stage was recorded. (unpaired t-test, p = 0.041) EGFR overexpression also showed the tendency to increase recurrence of cancer (unpaired t-test, p = 0.128). A significant downregulation of EGFR expression was documented in advanced stage laryngeal cancer. The results indicated that EGFR level correlates to prognosis in term of stage progression. Thus, EGFR expression might be used as a prevailing biomarker for laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma prognostic prediction.

Keywords: downregulation, epidermal growth factor receptor, immunohistochemistry, laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma

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Authors: Hongmeng Su, Luyu Zhao, Yanyan Qian, Hong Fan

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Aim: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant tumors that endanger human health seriously. RNA methylation, especially N6-methyladenosine (m⁶A) and 5-methylcytosine (m⁵C), a crucial epigenetic transcriptional regulatory mechanism, plays an important role in tumorigenesis, progression and prognosis. This research aims to systematically evaluate the prognostic value of m⁶A and m⁵C modulators in HCC patients. Methods: Twenty-four modulators of m⁶A and m⁵C were candidates to analyze their expression level and their contribution to predict the prognosis of HCC. Consensus clustering analysis was applied to classify HCC patients. Cox and LASSO regression were used to construct the risk model. According to the risk score, HCC patients were divided into high-risk and low/medium-risk groups. The clinical pathology factors of HCC patients were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results: The HCC patients were classified into 2 clusters with significant differences in overall survival and clinical characteristics. Nine-gene risk model was constructed including METTL3, VIRMA, YTHDF1, YTHDF2, NOP2, NSUN4, NSUN5, DNMT3A and ALYREF. It was indicated that the risk score could serve as an independent prognostic factor for patients with HCC. Conclusion: This study constructed a Nine-gene risk model by modulators of m⁶A and m⁵C and investigated its effect on the clinical prognosis of HCC. This model may provide important consideration for the therapeutic strategy and prognosis evaluation analysis of patients with HCC.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, m⁶A, m⁵C, prognosis, RNA methylation

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Authors: Awf A. Al-Khan, Michael J. Day, Judith Nimmo, Mourad Tayebi, Stewart D. Ryan, Samantha J. Richardson, Janine A. Danks

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Osteosarcoma (OS) is the most common type of malignant primary bone tumour in dogs. In addition to their critical roles in bone formation and remodeling, parathyroid hormone-related protein (PTHrP) and its receptor (PTHR1) are involved in progression and metastasis of many types of tumours in humans. The aims of this study were to determine the localisation and expression levels of PTHrP and PTHR1 in canine OS tissues using immunohistochemistry and to investigate if this expression is correlated with survival time. Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue samples from 44 dogs with known survival time that had been diagnosed with primary osteosarcoma were analysed for localisation of PTHrP and PTHR1. Findings showed that both PTHrP and PTHR1 were present in all OS samples. The dogs with high level of PTHR1 protein (16%) had decreased survival time (P<0.05) compared to dogs with less PTHR1 protein. PTHrP levels did not correlate with survival time (P>0.05). The results of this study indicate that the PTHR1 is expressed differently in canine OS tissues and this may be correlated with poor prognosis. This may mean that PTHR1 may be useful as a prognostic indicator in canine OS and could represent a good therapeutic target in OS.

Keywords: dog, expression, osteosarcoma, parathyroid hormone receptor 1 (PTHR1), parathyroid hormone-related protein (PTHrP), survival

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Authors: Naser Shagerdi Esmaeli, Mohsen Hamidpour, Parisa Hasankhani Tehrani

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Background: The TP53 mutation is frequently detected in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients with complex karyotype (CK), but the stability of this mutation during the clinical course remains unclear. Material and Methods: In this study, TP53 mutations were identified in 7% of 500 patients with de novo AML and 58.8% of patients with CK in Tabriz, Iran. TP53 mutations were closely associated with older age, lower white blood cell (WBC) and platelet counts, FAB M6 subtype, unfavorable-risk cytogenetics, and CK, but negatively associated with NPM1 mutation, FLT3/ITD and DNMT3A mutation. Result: Multivariate analysis demonstrated that TP53 mutation was an independent poor prognostic factor for overall survival and disease-free survival among the total cohort and the subgroup of patients with CK. A scoring system incorporating TP53 mutation and nine other prognostic factors, including age, WBC counts, cytogenetics, and gene mutations, into survival analysis proved to be very useful to stratify AML patients. Sequential study of 420 samples showed that TP53 mutations were stable during AML evolution, whereas the mutation was acquired only in 1 of the 126 TP53 wild-type patients when therapy-related AML originated from different clone emerged. Conclusion: In conclusion, TP53 mutations are associated with distinct clinic-biological features and poor prognosis in de novo AML patients and are rather stable during disease progression.

Keywords: acute myloblastic leukemia, TP53, FLT3/ITD, Iran

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Authors: Faizul Azly Abd Dzubir, Muhammad F. Othman

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Conventional structural health monitoring approach for mechanical equipment uses inspection data from Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) during plant shut down window and fitness for service evaluation to estimate the integrity of the equipment that is prone to crack damage. Yet, this forecast is fraught with uncertainty because it is often based on assumptions of future operational parameters, and the prediction is not continuous or online. Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Technology (ADaPT) uses Acoustic Emission (AE) technology and a stochastic prognostic model to provide real-time monitoring and prediction of mechanical defects or cracks. The forecast can help the plant authority handle their cracked equipment before it ruptures, causing an unscheduled shutdown of the facility. The ADaPT employs process historical data trending, finite element analysis, fitness for service, and probabilistic statistical analysis to develop a prediction model for crack initiation and growth due to mechanical damage. The prediction model is combined with live equipment operating data for real-time prediction of the remaining life span owing to fracture. ADaPT was devised at a hot combined feed exchanger (HCFE) that had suffered creep crack damage. The ADaPT tool predicts the initiation of a crack at the top weldment area by April 2019. During the shutdown window in April 2019, a crack was discovered and repaired. Furthermore, ADaPT successfully advised the plant owner to run at full capacity and improve output by up to 7% by April 2019. ADaPT was also used on a coke drum that had extensive fatigue cracking. The initial cracks are declared safe with ADaPT, with remaining crack lifetimes extended another five (5) months, just in time for another planned facility downtime to execute repair. The prediction model, when combined with plant information data, allows plant operators to continuously monitor crack propagation caused by mechanical damage for improved maintenance planning and to avoid costly shutdowns to repair immediately.

Keywords: mechanical damage, cracks, continuous monitoring tool, remaining life, acoustic emission, prognostic model

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Authors: Kangana Sengar, Sanjay Deb, Ramesh Dawar

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Introduction: Ki-67 can be a useful marker in determining proliferative activity in patients with multiple myeloma (MM). However, using Ki-67 alone results in the erroneous inclusion of non-myeloma cells leading to false high counts. We have used Dual IHC (immunohistochemistry) staining with Ki-67 and CD138 to enhance specificity in assessing proliferative activity of bone marrow plasma cells. Aims and objectives: To estimate the proportion of proliferating (Ki-67 expressing) plasma cells in patients with MM and correlation of Ki-67 with other known prognostic parameters. Materials and Methods: Fifty FFPE (formalin fixed paraffin embedded) blocks of trephine biopsies of cases diagnosed as MM from 2010 to 2015 are subjected to H & E staining and Dual IHC staining for CD 138 and Ki-67. H & E staining is done to evaluate various histological parameters like percentage of plasma cells, pattern of infiltration (nodular, interstitial, mixed and diffuse), routine parameters of marrow cellularity and hematopoiesis. Clinical data is collected from patient records from Medical Record Department. Each of CD138 expressing cells (cytoplasmic, red) are scored as proliferating plasma cells (containing a brown Ki¬67 nucleus) or non¬proliferating plasma cells (containing a blue, counter-stained, Ki-¬67 negative nucleus). Ki-67 is measured as percentage positivity with a maximum score of hundred percent and lowest of zero percent. The intensity of staining is not relevant. Results: Statistically significant correlation of Ki-67 in D-S Stage (Durie & Salmon Stage) I vs. III (p=0.026) and ISS (International Staging System) Stage I vs. III (p=0.019), β2m (p=0.029) and percentage of plasma cells (p < 0.001) is seen. No statistically significant correlation is seen between Ki-67 and hemoglobin, platelet count, total leukocyte count, total protein, albumin, S. calcium, S. creatinine, S. LDH, blood urea and pattern of infiltration. Conclusion: Ki-67 index correlated with other known prognostic parameters. However, it is not determined routinely in patients with MM due to little information available regarding its relevance and paucity of studies done to correlate with other known prognostic factors in MM patients. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in India using Dual IHC staining for Ki-67 and CD138 in MM patients. Routine determination of Ki-67 will help to identify patients who may benefit with more aggressive therapy. Recommendation: In this study follow up of patients is not included, and the sample size is small. Studying with larger sample size and long follow up is advocated to prognosticate Ki-67 as a marker of survival in patients with multiple myeloma.

Keywords: bone marrow, dual IHC, Ki-67, multiple myeloma

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Authors: Shohreh Ghasemi

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Introduction: Melanoma is a complex disease with various clinical and histopathological features that impact prognosis and treatment decisions. Traditional methods of melanoma prognosis involve manual examination and interpretation of clinical and histopathological data by dermatologists and pathologists. However, the subjective nature of these assessments can lead to inter-observer variability and suboptimal prognostic accuracy. AI, with its ability to analyze vast amounts of data and identify patterns, has emerged as a promising tool for improving melanoma prognosis. Methods: A comprehensive literature search was conducted to identify studies that employed AI techniques for melanoma prognosis. The search included databases such as PubMed and Google Scholar, using keywords such as "artificial intelligence," "melanoma," and "prognosis." Studies published between 2010 and 2022 were considered. The selected articles were critically reviewed, and relevant information was extracted. Results: The review identified various AI methodologies utilized in melanoma prognosis, including machine learning algorithms, deep learning techniques, and computer vision. These techniques have been applied to diverse data sources, such as clinical images, dermoscopy images, histopathological slides, and genetic data. Studies have demonstrated the potential of AI in accurately predicting melanoma prognosis, including survival outcomes, recurrence risk, and response to therapy. AI-based prognostic models have shown comparable or even superior performance compared to traditional methods.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, melanoma, accuracy, prognosis prediction, image analysis, personalized medicine

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Authors: J. Szpor, K. Witczak, M. Storman, A. Orchel, D. Hodorowicz-Zaniewska, K. Okoń, A. Klimkowska

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Core needle biopsy (CNB) is well established as an important diagnostic tool in diagnosing breast cancer and it is now considered the initial method of choice for diagnosing breast disease. In comparison to fine needle aspiration (FNA), CNB provides more architectural information allowing for the evaluation of prognostic and predictive factors for breast cancer, including histological grade—one of three prognostic factors used to calculate the Nottingham Prognostic Index. Several studies have previously described the concordance rate between CNB and surgical excision specimen in determination of histological grade (HG). The concordance rate previously ascribed to overall grade varies widely across literature, ranging from 59-91%. The aim of this study is to see how the data looks like in material at authors’ institution and are the results as compared to those described in previous literature. The study population included 157 women with a breast tumor who underwent a core needle biopsy for breast carcinoma and a subsequent surgical excision of the tumor. Both materials were evaluated for the determination of histological grade (scale from 1 to 3). HG was assessed only in core needle biopsies containing at least 10 well preserved HPF with invasive tumor. The degree of concordance between CNB and surgical excision specimen for the determination of tumor grade was assessed by Cohen’s kappa coefficient. The level of agreement between core needle biopsy and surgical resection specimen for overall histologic grading was 73% (113 of 155 cases). CNB correctly predicted the grade of the surgical excision specimen in 21 cases for grade 1 tumors (Kappa coefficient κ = 0.525 95% CI (0.3634; 0.6818), 52 cases for grade 2 (Kappa coefficient κ = 0.5652 95% CI (0.458; 0.667) and 40 cases for stage 3 tumors (Kappa coefficient κ = 0.6154 95% CI (0.4862; 0.7309). The highest level of agreement was observed in grade 3 malignancies. In 9 of 42 (21%) discordant cases, the grade was higher in the CNB than in the surgical excision. This composed 6% of the overall discordance. These results correspond to the noted in the literature, showing that underestimation occurs more frequently than overestimation. This study shows that authors’ institution’s histologic grading of CNBs and surgical excisions shows a fairly good correlation and is consistent with findings in previous reports. Despite the inevitable limitations of CNB, CNB is an effective method for diagnosing breast cancer and managing treatment options. Assessment of tumour grade by CNB is useful for the planning of treatment, so in authors’ opinion it is worthy to implement it in daily practice.

Keywords: breast cancer, concordance, core needle biopsy, histological grade

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Authors: Nahush Modak, Meena Pangarkar, Anand Pathak, Ankita Tamhane

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Background: Breast cancer is the prominent cause of cancer and mortality among women. This study was done to show the statistical analysis of a cohort of over 250 patients detected with breast cancer diagnosed by oncologists using Immunohistochemistry (IHC). IHC was performed by using ER; PR; HER2; Ki-67 antibodies. Materials and methods: Formalin fixed Paraffin embedded tissue samples were obtained by surgical manner and standard protocol was followed for fixation, grossing, tissue processing, embedding, cutting and IHC. The Ventana Benchmark XT machine was used for automated IHC of the samples. Antibodies used were supplied by F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. Statistical analysis was performed by using SPSS for windows. Statistical tests performed were chi-squared test and Correlation tests with p<.01. The raw data was collected and provided by National Cancer Insitute, Jamtha, India. Result: Luminal B was the most prevailing molecular subtype of Breast cancer at our institute. Chi squared test of homogeneity was performed to find equality in distribution and Luminal B was the most prevalent molecular subtype. The worse prognostic indicator for breast cancer depends upon expression of Ki-67 and her2 protein in cancerous cells. Our study was done at p <.01 and significant dependence was observed. There exists no dependence of age on molecular subtype of breast cancer. Similarly, age is an independent variable while considering Ki-67 expression. Chi square test performed on Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) statuses of patients and strong dependence was observed in percentage of Ki-67 expression and Her2 (+/-) character which shows that, value of Ki depends upon Her2 expression in cancerous cells (p<.01). Surprisingly, dependence was observed in case of Ki-67 and Pr, at p <.01. This shows that Progesterone receptor proteins (PR) are over-expressed when there is an elevation in expression of Ki-67 protein. Conclusion: We conclude from that Luminal B is the most prevalent molecular subtype at National Cancer Institute, Jamtha, India. There was found no significant correlation between age and Ki-67 expression in any molecular subtype. And no dependence or correlation exists between patients’ age and molecular subtype. We also found that, when the diagnosis is Luminal A, out of the cohort of 257 patients, no patient shows >14% Ki-67 value. Statistically, extremely significant values were observed for dependence of PR+Her2- and PR-Her2+ scores on Ki-67 expression. (p<.01). Her2 is an important prognostic factor in breast cancer. Chi squared test for Her2 and Ki-67 shows that the expression of Ki depends upon Her2 statuses. Moreover, Ki-67 cannot be used as a standalone prognostic factor for determining breast cancer.

Keywords: breast cancer molecular subtypes , correlation, immunohistochemistry, Ki-67 and HR, statistical analysis

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Authors: Doaa M. Elghannam, Nashwa Khayrat Abousamra, Doaa A. Shahin, Enas F. Goda, Hanan Azzam, Emad Azmy, Manal Salah El-Din

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Background: The pathogenesis of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) involves the cooperation of mutations promoting proliferation/survival and those impairing differentiation. Point mutations of the NRAS gene are the most frequent somatic mutations causing aberrant signal-transduction in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Aim: The present work was conducted to study the frequency and prognostic significance of NRAS gene mutations (NRASmut) in de novo Egyptian adult AML. Material and methods: Bone marrow specimens from 150 patients with de novo acute myeloid leukemia and controls were analyzed by genomic PCR-SSCP at codons 12, 13 (exon 1), and 61 (exon 2) for NRAS mutations. Results: NRAS gene mutations was found in 19/150 (12.7%) AML cases, represented more frequently in the FAB subtype M4eo (P = 0.028), and at codon 12, 13 (14of 19; 73.7%). Patients with NRASmut had a significant lower peripheral marrow blasts (P = 0.004, P=0.03) and non significant improved clinical outcome than patients without the mutation. Complete remission rate was (63.2% vs 56.5%; p=0.46), resistant disease (15.8% vs 23.6%; p=0.51), three years overall survival (44% vs 42%; P = 0.85) and disease free survival (42.1% vs 38.9%, P = 0.74). Multivariate analysis showed that age was the strongest unfavorable factor for overall survival (relative risk [RR], 1.9; P = .002), followed by cytogenetics (P = .004). FAB types, NRAS mutation, and leukocytosis were less important. Conclusions: NRAS gene mutation frequency and spectrum differ between biologically distinct subtypes of AML but do not significantly influence prognosis and clinical outcome.

Keywords: NRAS Gene, egyptian adult, acute myeloid leukemia, cytogenetics

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Authors: Irfan Ahmad Afip

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This main research objective is to accurately identify the possibility for a Leptospirosis outbreak severity of a certain area based on its input features into a multivariate regression model. The research question is the possibility of an outbreak in a specific area being influenced by this feature, such as social demographics and hydrometeorological extremes. If the occurrence of an outbreak is being subjected to these features, then the epidemic severity for an area will be different depending on its environmental setting because the features will influence the possibility and severity of an outbreak. Specifically, this research objective was three-fold, namely: (a) to identify the relevant multivariate features and visualize the patterns data, (b) to develop a multivariate regression model based from the selected features and determine the possibility for Leptospirosis outbreak in an area, and (c) to compare the predictive ability of multivariate regression model and machine learning algorithms. Several secondary data features were collected locations in the state of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, based on the possibility it would be relevant to determine the outbreak severity in the area. The relevant features then will become an input in a multivariate regression model; a linear regression model is a simple and quick solution for creating prognostic capabilities. A multivariate regression model has proven more precise prognostic capabilities than univariate models. The expected outcome from this research is to establish a correlation between the features of social demographic and hydrometeorological with Leptospirosis bacteria; it will also become a contributor for understanding the underlying relationship between the pathogen and the ecosystem. The relationship established can be beneficial for the health department or urban planner to inspect and prepare for future outcomes in event detection and system health monitoring.

Keywords: geographical information system, hydrometeorological, leptospirosis, multivariate regression

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Authors: Lola T. Alimkhodjaeva, Lola T. Zakirova, Soniya S. Ziyavidenova

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Background: Breast cancer occupies the first place among the cancer in women in the world. It is urgent today to study the role of molecular markers which are capable of predicting the dynamics and outcome of the disease. The aim of this study is to define the prognostic value of the content of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PgR), and amplification of HER-2 / neu oncoprotein by studying 3 and 5-year overall and relapse-free survival in 470 patients with primary operable and 280 patients with locally–advanced breast cancer. Materials and methods: Study results of 3 and 5-year overall and relapse-free survival, depending on the content of RE, PgR in primary operable patients showed that ER positive (+) and PgR (+) survival was 100 (96.2%) and 97.3 (94.6%), for ER negative (-) and PgR (-) - 69.2 (60.3%) and 65.4 (57.7%), for ER positive (+) and negative PgR (-) 87.4 (80.1%) and 81.5 (79.3%), for ER negative (-) and positive PgR (+) - 97.4 (93.4%) and 90.4 (88.5%), respectively. Survival results depended also on the level of HER-2 / neu expression. In patients with HER-2 / neu negative the survival rates were as follows: 98.6 (94.7%) and 96.2 (92.3%). In group of patients with the level of HER-2 / neu (2+) expression these figures were: 45.3 (44.3%) and 45.1 (40.2%), and in group of patients with the level of HER-2 / neu (3+) expression - 41.2 (33.1%) and 34.3 (29.4%). The combination of ER negative (-), PgR (-), HER-2 / neu (-) they were 27.2 (25.4%) and 19.5 (15.3%), respectively. In patients with locally-advanced breast cancer the results of 3 and 5-year OS and RFS for ER (+) and PgR (+) were 76.3 (69.3%) and 62.2 (61.4%), for ER (-) and RP (-) 29.1 (23.7%) and 18.3 (12.6%), for ER (+) and PgR (-) 61.2 (47.2%) and 39.4 (25.6%), for ER (-) and PgR (+) 54.3 (43.1%) and 41.3 (18.3%), respectively. The level of HER-2 / neu expression also affected the survival results. Therefore, in HER-2/ neu negative patients the survival rate was 74.1 (67.6%) and 65.1 (57.3%), with the level of expression (2+) 20.4 (14.2%) and 8.6 (6.4%), with the level of expression (3+) 6.2 (3.1%) and 1.2 (1.5%), respectively. The combination for ER, PgR, HER-2 / neu negative was 22.1 (14.3%) and 8.4 (1.2%). Conclusion: Thus, the presence of steroid hormone receptors in breast tumor tissues at primary operable and locally- advanced process as the lack of HER-2/neu oncoprotein correlates with the highest rates of 3- and 5-year overall and relapse-free survival. The absence of steroid hormone receptors as well as of HER-2/neu overexpression in malignant breast tissues significantly degrades the 3- and 5-year overall and relapse-free survival. Tumors with ER, PgR and HER-2/neu negative have the most unfavorable prognostics.

Keywords: breast cancer, estrogen receptor, oncoprotein, progesterone receptor

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Authors: Mekni Sabrine, Nouira Mariem

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Background and aim: Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is a curative treatment for several hematological diseases; however, it has a non-negligible morbidity and mortality depending on several prognostic factors, including pre-transplant hyperferritinemia. The aim of our study was to estimate the impact of hyperferritinemia on survivals and on the occurrence of post-transplant complications. Methods: It was a longitudinal study conducted over 8 years and including all patients who had a first allograft. The impact of pretransplant hyperferritinemia (ferritinemia ≥1500) on survivals was studied using the Kaplan Meier method and the COX model for uni- and multivariate analysis. The Khi-deux test and binary logistic regression were used to study the association between pretransplant ferritinemia and post-transplant complications. Results: One hundred forty patients were included with an average age of 26.6 years and a sex ratio (M/F)=1.4. Hyperferritinemia was found in 33% of patients. It had no significant impact on either overall survival (p=0.9) or event -free survival (p=0.6). In multivariate analysis, only the type of disease was independently associated with overall survival (p=0.04) and event-free survival (p=0.002). For post-allograft complications: The occurrence of early documented infections was independently associated with pretransplant hyperferritinemia (p=0.02) and the presence of acute graft versus host disease( GVHD) (p<10-3). The occurrence of acute GVHD was associated with early documented infection (p=0.002) and Cytomegalovirus reactivation (p<10-3). The occurrence of chronic GVHD was associated with the presence of Cytomegalovirus reactivation (p=0.006) and graft source (p=0.009). Conclusion: Our study showed the significant impact of pre-transplant hyperferritinemia on the occurrence of early infections but not on survivals. Early and more accurate assessment iron overload by other tests such as liver magnetic resonance imaging with initiation of chelating treatment could prevent the occurrence of such complications after transplantation.

Keywords: allogeneic, transplants, ferritin, survival

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Authors: Jacqueline Y. Thompson, Sam Watson, Lee Middleton, Karla Hemming

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Introduction: The odds ratio (estimated via logistic regression) is a well-established and common approach for estimating covariate-adjusted binary treatment effects when comparing a treatment and control group with dichotomous outcomes. Its popularity is primarily because of its stability and robustness to model misspecification. However, the situation is different for the relative risk and risk difference, which are arguably easier to interpret and better suited to specific designs such as non-inferiority studies. So far, there is no equivalent, widely acceptable approach to estimate an adjusted relative risk and risk difference when conducting clinical trials. This is partly due to the lack of a comprehensive evaluation of available candidate methods. Methods/Approach: A simulation study is designed to evaluate the performance of relevant candidate methods to estimate relative risks to represent conditional and marginal estimation approaches. We consider the log-binomial, generalised linear models (GLM) with iteratively weighted least-squares (IWLS) and model-based standard errors (SE); log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and model-based SEs; log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and permutation tests; modified-Poisson GLM IWLS and robust SEs; log-binomial generalised estimation equations (GEE) and robust SEs; marginal standardisation and delta method SEs; and marginal standardisation and permutation test SEs. Independent and identically distributed datasets are simulated from a randomised controlled trial to evaluate these candidate methods. Simulations are replicated 10000 times for each scenario across all possible combinations of sample sizes (200, 1000, and 5000), outcomes (10%, 50%, and 80%), and covariates (ranging from -0.05 to 0.7) representing weak, moderate or strong relationships. Treatment effects (ranging from 0, -0.5, 1; on the log-scale) will consider null (H0) and alternative (H1) hypotheses to evaluate coverage and power in realistic scenarios. Performance measures (bias, mean square error (MSE), relative efficiency, and convergence rates) are evaluated across scenarios covering a range of sample sizes, event rates, covariate prognostic strength, and model misspecifications. Potential Results, Relevance & Impact: There are several methods for estimating unadjusted and adjusted relative risks. However, it is unclear which method(s) is the most efficient, preserves type-I error rate, is robust to model misspecification, or is the most powerful when adjusting for non-prognostic and prognostic covariates. GEE estimations may be biased when the outcome distributions are not from marginal binary data. Also, it seems that marginal standardisation and convex optimisation may perform better than GLM IWLS log-binomial.

Keywords: binary outcomes, statistical methods, clinical trials, simulation study

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Authors: Precious Barnes, Abraham Mensah, Leonard Derkyi-Kwarteng, Benjamin Amoani, George Adjei, Ernest Adankwah, Faustina Pappoe, Kwabena Dankwah, Daniel Amoako-Sakyi, Samuel Victor Nuvor, Dorcas Obiri-Yeboah, Ewura Seidu Yahaya, Patrick Kafui Akakpo, Roland Osei Saahene

Abstract:

Context: Breast cancer is a prevalent and aggressive type of cancer among African women, with high mortality rates in Ghana. Nuclear factor kappa B (NF-kB) is a transcription factor that has been associated with tumor progression in breast cancer. However, there is a lack of published data on NF-kB in breast cancer patients in Ghana or other African countries. Research Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic significance of NF-kB (p65) expression and its association with various clinicopathological features in breast cancer patients at the Cape Coast Teaching Hospital in Ghana. Methodology: A total of 90 formalin-fixed breast cancer tissues and 15 normal breast tissues were used in this study. The expression level of NF-kB (p65) was examined using immunohistochemical techniques. Correlation analysis between NF-kB (p65) expression and clinicopathological features was performed using SPSS version 25. Findings: The study found that NF-kB (p65) was expressed in 86.7% of breast cancer tissues. There was a significant relationship between NF-kB (p65) expression and tumor grade, proliferation index (Ki67), and molecular subtype. High-level expression of NF-kB (p65) was more common in tumor grade 3 compared to grade 1, and Ki67 > 20 had higher expression of NF-kB (p65) compared to Ki67 ≤ 20. Triple-negative breast cancer patients had the highest overexpression of NF-kB (p65) compared to other molecular subtypes. There was no significant association between NF-kB (p65) expression and other clinicopathological parameters. Theoretical Importance: This study provides important insights into the expression of NF-kB (p65) in breast cancer patients in Ghana, particularly in relation to tumor grade and proliferation index. The findings suggest that NF-kB (p65) could serve as a potential biological marker for cancer stage, progression, prognosis and as a therapeutic target. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: Formalin-fixed breast cancer tissues and normal breast tissues were collected and analyzed using immunohistochemical techniques. Correlation analysis between NF-kB (p65) expression and clinicopathological features was performed using SPSS version 25. Question Addressed: This study addressed the question of the prognostic significance of NF-kB (p65) expression and its association with clinicopathological features in breast cancer patients in Ghana. Conclusion: This study, the first of its kind in Ghana, demonstrates that NF-kB (p65) is highly expressed among breast cancer patients at the Cape Coast Teaching Hospital, especially in triple-negative breast cancer patients. The expression of NF-kB (p65) is associated with tumor grade and proliferation index. NF-kB (p65) could potentially serve as a biological marker for cancer stage, progression, prognosis, and as a therapeutic target.

Keywords: breast cancer, Ki67, NF-kB (p65), tumor grade

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Authors: Christos Lampropoulos, Maria Konsta, Vicky Dradaki, Irini Dri, Konstantina Panouria, Tamta Sirbilatze, Ifigenia Apostolou, Vaggelis Lambas, Christina Kordali, Georgios Mavras

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Objectives: Malnutrition in hospitalized patients is related to increased morbidity and mortality. The purpose of our study was to compare various nutritional scores in order to detect the most suitable one for assessing the nutritional status of elderly, hospitalized patients and correlate them with mortality and extension of admission duration, due to patients’ critical condition. Methods: Sample population included 150 patients (78 men, 72 women, mean age 80±8.2). Nutritional status was assessed by Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA full, short-form), Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) and short Nutritional Appetite Questionnaire (sNAQ). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and ROC curves were assessed after adjustment for the cause of current admission, a known prognostic factor according to previously applied multivariate models. Primary endpoints were mortality (from admission until 6 months afterwards) and duration of hospitalization, compared to national guidelines for closed consolidated medical expenses. Results: Concerning mortality, MNA (short-form and full) and SNAQ had similar, low sensitivity (25.8%, 25.8% and 35.5% respectively) while MUST had higher sensitivity (48.4%). In contrast, all the questionnaires had high specificity (94%-97.5%). Short-form MNA and sNAQ had the best positive predictive value (72.7% and 78.6% respectively) whereas all the questionnaires had similar negative predictive value (83.2%-87.5%). MUST had the highest ROC curve (0.83) in contrast to the rest questionnaires (0.73-0.77). With regard to extension of admission duration, all four scores had relatively low sensitivity (48.7%-56.7%), specificity (68.4%-77.6%), positive predictive value (63.1%-69.6%), negative predictive value (61%-63%) and ROC curve (0.67-0.69). Conclusion: MUST questionnaire is more advantageous in predicting mortality due to its higher sensitivity and ROC curve. None of the nutritional scores is suitable for prediction of extended hospitalization.

Keywords: duration of admission, malnutrition, nutritional assessment scores, prognostic factors for mortality

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Authors: Christos E. Lampropoulos, Maria Konsta, Vicky Dradaki, Irini Dri, Tamta Sirbilatze, Ifigenia Apostolou, Christina Kordali, Konstantina Panouria, Kostas Argyros, Georgios Mavras

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Malnutrition in hospitalized patients is related to increased morbidity and mortality. Purpose of our study was to assess nutritional status of hospitalized, elderly patients with various nutritional scores and to detect unfavorable prognostic factors, related to increased mortality and extended duration of admission. Methods: 150 patients (78 men, 72 women, mean age 80±8.2) were included in this cross-sectional study. Nutritional status was assessed by Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA full, short-form), Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) and short Nutritional Appetite Questionnaire (sNAQ). The following data were incorporated in analysis: Anthropometric and laboratory data, physical activity (International Physical Activity Questionnaires, IPAQ), smoking status, dietary habits and mediterranean diet (assessed by MedDiet score), cause and duration of current admission, medical history (co-morbidities, previous admissions). Primary endpoints were the mortality (from admission until 6 months afterwards) and duration of admission, compared to national guidelines for closed consolidated medical expenses. Mann-Whitney two-sample statistics or t-test was used for group comparisons and Spearman or Pearson coefficients for testing correlation between variables. Results: Normal nutrition was assessed in 54/150 (36%), 92/150 (61.3%) and in 106/150 (70.7%) of patients, according to full MNA, MUST and sNAQ questionnaires respectively. Mortality rate was 20.7% (31/150 patients). The patients who died until 6 months after admission had lower BMI (24±4.4 vs 26±4.8, p=0.04) and albumin levels (2.9±0.7 vs 3.4±0.7, p=0.002), significantly lower full MNA (14.5±7.3 vs 20.7±6, p<0.0001) and short-form MNA scores (7.3±4.2 vs 10.5±3.4, p=0.0002) compared to non-dead one. In contrast, the aforementioned patients had higher MUST (2.5±1.8 vs 0.5±1.02, p=<0.0001) and sNAQ scores (2.9±2.4 vs 1.1±1.3, p<0.0001). Additionally, they showed significantly lower MedDiet (23.5±4.3 vs 31.1±5.6, p<0.0001) and IPAQ scores (37.2±156.2 vs 516.5±1241.7, p<0.0001) compared to remaining one. These patients had extended hospitalization [5 (0-13) days vs 0 (-1-3) days, p=0.001]. Patients who admitted due to cancer depicted higher mortality rate (10/13, 77%), compared to those who admitted due to infections (12/73, 18%), stroke (4/15, 27%) or other causes (4/49, 8%) (p<0.0001). Extension of hospitalization was negatively correlated to both full (Spearman r=-0.35, p<0.0001) and short-form MNA (Spearman r=-0.33, p<0.0001) and positively correlated to MUST (Spearman r=0.34, p<0.0001) and sNAQ (Spearman r=0.3, p=0.0002). Additionally, the extension was inversely related to MedDiet score (Spearman r=-0.35, p<0.0001), IPAQ score (Spearman r=-0.34, p<0.0001), albumin levels (Pearson r=-0.36, p<0.0001), Ht (Pearson r=-0.2, p=0.02) and Hb (Pearson r=-0.18, p=0.02). Conclusion: A great proportion of elderly, hospitalized patients are malnourished or at risk of malnutrition. All nutritional scores, physical activity and albumin are significantly related to mortality and increased hospitalization.

Keywords: dietary habits, duration of admission, malnutrition, prognostic factors for mortality

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Authors: Kantha Siddhanth Gujjari, Shaani Singhal, Robert Andrew Danks, Adrian Praeger

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Background: Trigeminal neuralgia (TN) is a heterogenous pain syndrome characterised by short paroxysms of lancinating facial pain in the distribution of the trigeminal nerve, often triggered by usually innocuous stimuli. TN has a low prevalence of less than 0.1%, of which 80% to 90% is caused by compression of the trigeminal nerve from an adjacent artery or vein. The root entry zone of the trigeminal nerve is most sensitive to neurovascular conflict (NVC), causing dysmyelination. Whilst microvascular decompression (MVD) is an effective treatment for TN with NVC, all patients do not achieve long-term pain relief. Pre-operative scoring systems by Panczykowski and Hardaway have been proposed but have not been externally validated. These pre-operative scoring systems are composite scores calculated according to a subtype of TN, presence and degree of neurovascular conflict, and response to medical treatments. There is discordance in the assessment of NVC identified on pre-operative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) between neurosurgeons and radiologists. To our best knowledge, the prognostic impact for MVD of this difference of interpretation has not previously been investigated in the form of a composite scoring system such as those suggested by Panczykowski and Hardaway. Aims: This study aims to identify prognostic factors and externally validate the proposed scoring systems by Panczykowski and Hardaway for TN. A secondary aim is to investigate the prognostic difference between a neurosurgeon's interpretation of NVC on MRI compared with a radiologist’s. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 95 patients who underwent de novo MVD in a single neurosurgical unit in Melbourne. Data was recorded from patients’ hospital records and neurosurgeon’s correspondence from perioperative clinic reviews. Patient demographics, type of TN, distribution of TN, response to carbamazepine, neurosurgeon, and radiologist interpretation of NVC on MRI, were clearly described prospectively and preoperatively in the correspondence. Scoring systems published by Panczykowski et al. and Hardaway et al. were used to determine composite scores, which were compared with the recurrence of TN recorded during follow-up over 1-year. Categorical data analysed using Pearson chi-square testing. Independent numerical and nominal data analysed with logistical regression. Results: Logistical regression showed that a Panczykowski composite score of greater than 3 points was associated with a higher likelihood of pain-free outcome 1-year post-MVD with an OR 1.81 (95%CI 1.41-2.61, p=0.032). The composite score using neurosurgeon’s impression of NVC had an OR 2.96 (95%CI 2.28-3.31, p=0.048). A Hardaway composite score of greater than 2 points was associated with a higher likelihood of pain-free outcome 1 year post-MVD with an OR 3.41 (95%CI 2.58-4.37, p=0.028). The composite score using neurosurgeon’s impression of NVC had an OR 3.96 (95%CI 3.01-4.65, p=0.042). Conclusion: Composite scores developed by Panczykowski and Hardaway were validated for the prediction of response to MVD in TN. A composite score based on the neurosurgeon’s interpretation of NVC on MRI, when compared with the radiologist’s had a greater correlation with pain-free outcomes 1 year post-MVD.

Keywords: de novo microvascular decompression, neurovascular conflict, prognosis, trigeminal neuralgia

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