Search results for: predictors of severity

Authors: Maher El-Masri, Jamie Crawley, Judy Bornais, Abeer Omar

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Background: Misuse of Emergency Department (ED) for non-urgent healthcare results in unnecessary crowdedness that can result in long ED waits and delays in treatment, diversion of ambulances to other hospitals, poor health outcomes for patients, and increased risk of death Objectives: The main purpose of this study was to explore the independent predictors of non-urgent ED visits in Erie St. Clair LHIN. Secondary purposes of the study include comparison of the rates of non-urgent ED visits between urban and rural hospitals Design: A secondary analysis of archived population-based data on 597,373 ED visits in southwestern Ontario Results The results suggest that older (OR = .992; 95% CI .992 – .993) and female patients (OR = .940; 95% CI .929 - .950) were less likely to visit ED for non-urgent causes. Non-urgent ED visits during the winter, spring, and fall were 13%, 5.8%, and 7.5%, respectively, lesser than they were during the summer time. The data further suggest that non-urgent visits were 19.6% and 21.3% less likely to occur in evening and overnight shifts compared to the day shift. Non-urgent visits were 2.76 times more likely to present to small community hospitals than large community hospitals. Health care providers were 1.92 times more likely to refer patients with non-urgent health problem to the ED than the decision taken by patients, family member or caretakers. Conclusion: In conclusion, our study highlights a number of important factors that are associated with inappropriate use of ED visits for non-urgent health problems. Knowledge of these factors could be used to address the issue of unnecessary ED crowdedness.

Keywords: emergency department, non-urgent visits, predictors, logistic regression

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Authors: Shielilo R. Amihan, Ederliza De Jesus

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The study determined the predictors of college performance of 2nd Yr students of UPHSD-Calamba. This quantitative study conducted a survey using the Scholastic Abilities Test for Adults (SATA), and the retrieval of entrance examinations results and current General Weighted Average (GWA) of the 242 randomly selected respondents. The mean, Pearson r and multiple regression analyses through SPSS revealed that students are capable of verbal, non-verbal and quantitative reasoning, reading vocabulary, comprehension, math calculation, and writing mechanics but have difficulty in math application and writing composition. The study found out the Scholastic Ability and Achievement, except in mathematics, are significantly related to college performance. It concludes that students with high ability and achievement may perform better in college. However, only English subset results in the entrance exam predicts the academic success of students in college while SATA and Math entrance exam results do not. The study recommends providing pre-college Math and Writing courses as requisites in college. It also suggests implementing formative curriculum-based enhancement programs on specific priority areas, profiling programs towards informed individual academic decision-making, revising the Entrance Examinations, monitoring the development of the students, and exploring other predictors of college academic performance such as non-cognitive factors.

Keywords: scholastic ability, scholastic achievement, entrance exam, college performance

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Authors: Arsalan Ghaderi, Behzad Karami Matin, Abdolrahim Afkhamzadeh, Abouzar Keshavarzi, Parvin Nokhasi

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Background: Lack of individual health as one of the major health problems among the pilgrims can be followed by several complications. The main aim of this study was to determine factors predicting individual health among pilgrims of Kurdistan County; in the west of Iran and health belief model (HBM) was applied as theoretical framework. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 100 pilgrims who referred in the red crescent of Kurdistan County, the west of Iran which was randomly selected for participation in this study. A structured questionnaire was applied for collecting data and data were analyzed by SPSS version 21 using bivariate correlations and linear regression statistical tests. Results: The mean age of respondents was 59.45 years [SD: 11.56], ranged from 50 to 73 years. The HBM predictor variables accounted for 47% of the variation in the outcome measure of the individual health. The best predictors for individual health were perceived severity and cause to action. Conclusion: Based on our result, it seems that designing and implementation of educational programs to increase seriousness about complications of lack of individual health and increasing cause to action among the pilgrims may be useful in order to promote individual health among pilgrims.

Keywords: individual health, pilgrims, Iran, health belief model

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Authors: Najib Ahmad Marzuki, Che Su Mustaffa, Johana Johari, Nur Haffiza Rahaman

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The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects and relationship of stress and social support towards the quality of life among flood victims in Malaysia. A total of 764 respondents took part in the survey via random sampling. The depression, anxiety, and stress scales were utilized to measure stress while The Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support was used to measure the quality of life. The findings of this study indicate that there were significant correlations between variables in the study. The findings show a significant negative relation between stress and quality of life, and significant positive correlations between support from family as well as support from friends with the quality of life. Stress and support from family were found to be significant predictors and influences the quality of life among flood victims.

Keywords: stress, social support, quality of life, flood victims

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Authors: Bin Liu

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Protein remote homology detection and fold recognition are two most important tasks in protein sequence analysis, which is critical for protein structure and function studies. In this study, we combined the profile-based features with various string kernels, and constructed several computational predictors for protein remote homology detection and fold recognition. Experimental results on two widely used benchmark datasets showed that these methods outperformed the competing methods, indicating that these predictors are useful computational tools for protein sequence analysis. By analyzing the discriminative features of the training models, some interesting patterns were discovered, reflecting the characteristics of protein superfamilies and folds, which are important for the researchers who are interested in finding the patterns of protein folds.

Keywords: protein remote homology detection, protein fold recognition, profile-based features, Support Vector Machines (SVMs)

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Authors: Adeyemi Adeyinka, Yemisi Ilesanmi

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This study investigated parental involvement and motivation as predictors of students’ learning outcomes in value concepts in Yoruba language in Ibadan, Nigeria. Value concepts in Yoruba language aimed at teaching moral lessons and transmitting Yoruba culture. However, feelers from schools and the society reported students’ poor achievement in examinations and negative attitude to the subject. Previous interventions focused on teaching strategies with little consideration for student-related factors. The study was anchored on psychosocial learning theory. The respondents were senior secondary II students with mean age of 15.50 ± 2.25 from 20 public schools in Ibadan, Oyo-State. In all, 1000 students were selected (486 males and 514 females) through proportionate to sample size technique. Instruments used were Students’ Motivation (r=0.79), Parental Involvement (r=0.87), and Attitude to Yoruba Value Concepts (r=0.94) scales and Yoruba Value Concepts Achievement Test (r=0.86). Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson product moment correlation and Multiple regressions at 0.05 level of significance. Findings revealed a significant relationship between parental involvement (r=0.54) and students’ achievement in and attitude to (r=0.229) value concepts in Yoruba. The composite contribution of parental involvement and motivation to students’ achievement and attitude was significant, contributing 20.3% and 5.1% respectively. The relative contributions of parental involvement to students’ achievement (β = 0.073; t = 1.551) and attitude (β = 0.228; t = 7.313) to value concepts in Yoruba were significant. Parental involvement was the independent variable that strongly predicts students’ achievement in and attitude to Yoruba value concepts. Parents should inculcate indigenous knowledge in their children and support its learning at school.

Keywords: parental involvement, motivation, predictors, learning outcomes, value concepts in Yoruba

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Authors: Nataša Šarlija, Sanja Pfeifer

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This study analyzes the innovative orientation of the Croatian entrepreneurs. Innovative orientation is represented by the perceived extent to which an entrepreneur’s product or service or technology is new, and no other businesses offer the same product. The sample is extracted from the GEM Croatia Adult Population Survey dataset for the years 2003-2013. We apply descriptive statistics, t-test, Chi-square test and logistic regression. Findings indicate that innovative orientations vary with personal, firm, meso and macro level variables, and between different stages in entrepreneurship process. Significant predictors are occupation of the entrepreneurs, size of the firm and export aspiration for both early stage and established entrepreneurs. In addition, fear of failure, expecting to start a new business and seeing an entrepreneurial career as a desirable choice are predictors of innovative orientation among early stage entrepreneurs.

Keywords: multilevel determinants of the innovative orientation, Croatian early stage entrepreneurs, established businesses, GEM evidence

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Authors: A. Zeynolabedin, M. A. Olyaei, B. Ghiasi

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Drought is an inevitable part of the earth’s climate. It occurs regularly with no clear warning and without recognizing borders. In addition, its impact is cumulative and not immediately discernible. Iran is located in a semi-arid region where droughts occur periodically as natural hazard. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are three well-known indices which describe drought severity; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. These indices take into account some factors such as precipitation, reservoir storage and discharge, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in determining drought severity. In this paper, first all three indices are calculated in Aharchay river watershed located in northwestern part of Iran in East Azarbaijan province. Next, based on two other important parameters which are groundwater level and solar radiation, two new indices are defined. Finally, considering all five aforementioned indices, a combined drought index (CDI) is presented and calculated for the region. This combined index is based on all the meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural features of the region. The results show that the most severe drought condition in Aharchay watershed happened in Jun, 2004. The result of this study can be used for monitoring drought and prepare for the drought mitigation planning.

Keywords: drought, GIS, intensity index, regional assessment, variation maps

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Authors: Tali Capua, Karin Hermon, Miguel Glatstein, Oren Tavor, Ayelet Rimon

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Background: Electric bicycles (E-bikes) are one of a wide range of light electric vehicles that provide convenient local transportation and attractive recreational opportunities. Along with their growing use worldwide, the E-bike related injury rate increases. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to specifically compare E-bike with classic bicycle related injuries in children. Methods: Data of all pediatric ( < 16 years of age) bicycle related injuries presenting to an urban level I trauma center between 2014 and 2015 were collected and analyzed. The recorded data included age, gender, details of the accident, as well severity of injury, medical diagnosis, and the outcome. Abbreviated Injury Score (AIS) and Injury Severity Score (ISS) were calculated for each patient. Data of E-bike related injuries and classic bicycle were then compared. Results: A total of 124 bicycle related injuries and 97 E-bike related injuries presented to the emergency department. Once pedestrians and bicycle passengers were removed, the groups of riders consisted of 111 bikers and 85 E-bikers. The mean age of bikers was 9.9 years (range 3-16 years) and of E-bikers was 13.7 years (range 7.5-16 years). Injuries to the head and the extremities were common in both groups. Compared to bikers, E-bikers had significantly more injuries to intra-abdominal organs (p = 0.04). Twenty patients (16%) with bicycle related injuries were admitted, and 13 (15%) patients with E-bike related injuries, of the latter group four underwent surgical intervention. ISS scores were low overall, but the injuries of higher severity (ISS > 9) were among the E-bikers. Conclusions: This study provides unique information which suggests that injuries in E-bikers tend to be more severe than in classic bikers. There is a need for regulation regarding the use of E-bikes to enhance the safety of both bikers and other road and pavement users.

Keywords: bicycle, electric bicycle, injury, pediatric, trauma

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Authors: Irfan Ahmad Afip

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This main research objective is to accurately identify the possibility for a Leptospirosis outbreak severity of a certain area based on its input features into a multivariate regression model. The research question is the possibility of an outbreak in a specific area being influenced by this feature, such as social demographics and hydrometeorological extremes. If the occurrence of an outbreak is being subjected to these features, then the epidemic severity for an area will be different depending on its environmental setting because the features will influence the possibility and severity of an outbreak. Specifically, this research objective was three-fold, namely: (a) to identify the relevant multivariate features and visualize the patterns data, (b) to develop a multivariate regression model based from the selected features and determine the possibility for Leptospirosis outbreak in an area, and (c) to compare the predictive ability of multivariate regression model and machine learning algorithms. Several secondary data features were collected locations in the state of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, based on the possibility it would be relevant to determine the outbreak severity in the area. The relevant features then will become an input in a multivariate regression model; a linear regression model is a simple and quick solution for creating prognostic capabilities. A multivariate regression model has proven more precise prognostic capabilities than univariate models. The expected outcome from this research is to establish a correlation between the features of social demographic and hydrometeorological with Leptospirosis bacteria; it will also become a contributor for understanding the underlying relationship between the pathogen and the ecosystem. The relationship established can be beneficial for the health department or urban planner to inspect and prepare for future outcomes in event detection and system health monitoring.

Keywords: geographical information system, hydrometeorological, leptospirosis, multivariate regression

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Authors: Chaiyaporn Yuksen, Tapanawat Chaiwan

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Introduction: Emergency medical service (EMS) care for trauma patients must be provided on-scene assessment and essential treatment and have appropriate transporting to the trauma center. The shock index (SI), reverse shock index Glasgow Coma Scale (rSIG), and National Early Warning Score (NEWS) triage tools are easy to use in a prehospital setting. There is no standardized on-scene triage protocol in prehospital care. The primary objective was to determine the accuracy of SI, rSIG, and NEWS to predict the severity of trauma patients in the emergency department (ED). Methods: This was a retrospective cross-sectional and diagnostic research conducted on trauma patients transported by EMS to the ED of Ramathibodi Hospital, a university-affiliated super tertiary care hospital in Bangkok, Thailand, from January 2015 to September 2022. We included the injured patients receiving prehospital care and transport to the ED of Ramathibodi Hospital by the EMS team from January 2015 to September 2022. We compared the on-scene parameter (SI, rSIG, and NEWS) and ED (Emergency Severity Index) with the area under ROC. Results: 218 patients were traumatic patients transported by EMS to the ED. 161 was ESI level 1-2, and 57 was level 3-5. NEWS was a more accurate triage tool to discriminate the severity of trauma patients than rSIG and SI. The area under the ROC was 0.743 (95%CI 0.70-0.79), 0.649 (95%CI 0.59-0.70), and 0.582 (95%CI 0.52-0.65), respectively (P-value <0.001). The cut point of NEWS to discriminate was 6 points. Conclusions: The NEWs was the most accurate triage tool in prehospital seeing in trauma patients.

Keywords: on-scene triage, trauma patient, ED triage, accuracy, NEWS

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Authors: Asiri Wijesinghe, N. D. Kodikara, Damitha Sandaruwan

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The Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) is a rapidly growing interrogation around the world which can be annotated by abortive metabolism of glucose that causes long-term infection in human retina. This is one of the preliminary reason of visual impairment and blindness of adults. Information on retinal pathological mutation can be recognized using ocular fundus images. In this research, we are mainly focused on resurrecting an automated diagnosis system to detect DR anomalies such as severity level classification of DR patient (Non-proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy approach) and vessel tortuosity measurement of untwisted vessels to assessment of vessel anomalies (Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy approach). Severity classification method is obtained better results according to the precision, recall, F-measure and accuracy (exceeds 94%) in all formats of cross validation. In ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curves also visualized the higher AUC (Area Under Curve) percentage (exceeds 95%). User level evaluation of severity capturing is obtained higher accuracy (85%) result and fairly better values for each evaluation measurements. Untwisted vessel detection for tortuosity measurement also carried out the good results with respect to the sensitivity (85%), specificity (89%) and accuracy (87%).

Keywords: fundus image, exudates, microaneurisms, hemorrhages, tortuosity, diabetic retinopathy, optic disc, fovea

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Authors: Dzatur Rizqi Fathienah Syarifuddin, Isharyah Sunarno, Eddy Hartono, Siti Maisuri T. Chalid

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Introduction: The potential impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the health of expectant mothers and fetuses has strained attention. Pregnant women are considered a vulnerable category to respiratory infections. Moreover, several inflammatory cytokines are 2-100 times more abundant in COVID-19 with cytokine storms than in normal individuals; interleukin 6 (IL-6) exhibits much higher elevations. Investigating potential relationships between IL-6 serum levels and the severity of COVID-19 symptoms in pregnant women is the aim of this study. Material and Methods: Sixty-two eligible pregnant women were divided into a positive COVID-19 group (n=31) and a negative COVID-19 group (n=31) in this cross-sectional study. The research subjects were selected using consecutive sampling. The IL-6 was measured from a vein blood specimen using ELISA methods. Results: The COVID-19 positive group had a higher median IL-6 serum level (45.35 (35.15- 153.99) vs. 38.86 ± 11.43 (15.02-59.52), p=0.03) than the negative group. On the other hand, the IL-6 serum level had comparable value according to the COVID-19 symptoms severity (88.35 ± 36.14 ng/mL vs. 51.09 ± 25.48 ng/mL vs. 56.02 ± 33.20 ng/mL in moderate symptoms, mild symptoms, and asymptomatic, respectively; p=0.152). Conclusion: Although the IL-6 serum levels are not related to COVID-19 symptoms severity, an elevated of this biomarker was found in pregnant women with affected diagnoses.

Keywords: interleukin-6, pregnancy, COVID-19, several inflammatory

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Authors: Yildiz Stella Dak, Jale Tezcan

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Ground motion models that relate a strong motion parameter of interest to a set of predictive seismological variables describing the earthquake source, the propagation path of the seismic wave, and the local site conditions constitute a critical component of seismic hazard analyses. When a sufficient number of strong motion records are available, ground motion relations are developed using statistical analysis of the recorded ground motion data. In regions lacking a sufficient number of recordings, a synthetic database is developed using stochastic, theoretical or hybrid approaches. Regardless of the manner the database was developed, ground motion relations are developed using regression analysis. Development of a ground motion relation is a challenging process which inevitably requires the modeler to make subjective decisions regarding the inclusion criteria of the recordings, the functional form of the model and the set of seismological variables to be included in the model. Because these decisions are critically important to the validity and the applicability of the model, there is a continuous interest on procedures that will facilitate the development of ground motion models. This paper proposes the use of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) in selecting the set predictive seismological variables to be used in developing a ground motion relation. The LASSO can be described as a penalized regression technique with a built-in capability of variable selection. Similar to the ridge regression, the LASSO is based on the idea of shrinking the regression coefficients to reduce the variance of the model. Unlike ridge regression, where the coefficients are shrunk but never set equal to zero, the LASSO sets some of the coefficients exactly to zero, effectively performing variable selection. Given a set of candidate input variables and the output variable of interest, LASSO allows ranking the input variables in terms of their relative importance, thereby facilitating the selection of the set of variables to be included in the model. Because the risk of overfitting increases as the ratio of the number of predictors to the number of recordings increases, selection of a compact set of variables is important in cases where a small number of recordings are available. In addition, identification of a small set of variables can improve the interpretability of the resulting model, especially when there is a large number of candidate predictors. A practical application of the proposed approach is presented, using more than 600 recordings from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) database, where the effect of a set of seismological predictors on the 5% damped maximum direction spectral acceleration is investigated. The set of candidate predictors considered are Magnitude, Rrup, Vs30. Using LASSO, the relative importance of the candidate predictors has been ranked. Regression models with increasing levels of complexity were constructed using one, two, three, and four best predictors, and the models’ ability to explain the observed variance in the target variable have been compared. The bias-variance trade-off in the context of model selection is discussed.

Keywords: ground motion modeling, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, penalized regression, variable selection

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Authors: Maria M. Calheiros, Carla Silva, Eunice Magalhães

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Professionals working in child protection services (CPS) need to have common and clear criteria to identify cases of maltreatment and to differentiate levels of severity in order to determine when CPS intervention is required, its nature and urgency, and, in most countries, the service that will be in charge of the case (community or specialized CPS). Actually, decision-making process is complex in CPS, and, for that reason, such criteria are particularly important for who significantly contribute to that decision-making in child maltreatment cases. The main objective of this presentation is to describe the Maltreatment Severity Assessment Questionnaire (MSQ), specifically designed to be used by professionals in the CPS, which adopts a multidimensional approach and uses a scale of severity within subtypes. Specifically, we aim to provide evidence of validity and reliability of this tool, in order to improve the quality and validity of assessment processes and, consequently, the decision making in CPS. The total sample was composed of 1000 children and/or adolescents (51.1% boys), aged between 0 and 18 years old (M = 9.47; DP = 4.51). All the participants were referred to official institutions of the children and youth protective system. Children and adolescents maltreatment (abuse, neglect experiences and sexual abuse) were assessed with 21 items of the Maltreatment Severity Questionnaire (MSQ), by professionals of CPS. Each item (sub-type) was composed of four descriptors of increasing severity. Professionals rated the level of severity, using a 4-point scale (1= minimally severe; 2= moderately severe; 3= highly severe; 4= extremely severe). The construct validity of the Maltreatment Severity Questionnaire was assessed with a holdout method, performing an Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) followed by a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). The final solution comprised 18 items organized in three factors 47.3% of variance explained. ‘Physical neglect’ (eight items) was defined by parental omissions concerning the insurance and monitoring of the child’s physical well-being and health, namely in terms of clothing, hygiene, housing conditions and contextual environmental security. ‘Physical and Psychological Abuse’ (four items) described abusive physical and psychological actions, namely, coercive/punitive disciplinary methods, physically violent methods or verbal interactions that offend and denigrate the child, with the potential to disrupt psychological attributes (e.g., self-esteem). ‘Psychological neglect’ (six items) involved omissions related to children emotional development, mental health monitoring, school attendance, development needs, as well as inappropriate relationship patterns with attachment figures. Results indicated a good reliability of all the factors. The assessment of child maltreatment cases with MSQ could have a set of practical and research implications: a) It is a valid and reliable multidimensional instrument to measure child maltreatment, b) It is an instrument integrating the co-occurrence of various types of maltreatment and a within-subtypes scale of severity; c) Specifically designed for professionals, it may assist them in decision-making processes; d) More than using case file reports to evaluate maltreatment experiences, researchers could guide more appropriately their research about determinants and consequences of maltreatment.

Keywords: assessment, maltreatment, children and youth, decision-making

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Authors: K. O. Ogbedeh, C. P. Ekwe, G. O. Ihejirika, S. A. Dialoke, O. P. Onyewuchi, C. P. Anyanwu, I. E. Kalu

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As one of the major pests of field crops, termites attack groundnut at all stages of its development, especially during prolonged dry spell. Effect of palm bunch ash and neem(Azardirachta indica A. Juss) leaf powder on termite infestation in groundnut field in Owerri, Nigeria was investigated in this study. The field trial was carried out in 2016 at the Teaching and Research Farm of the Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria. The experiment was laid out in a 3x3 Factorial fitted into a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with three replications. The treatments include three rates of palm bunch ash at 0.0 (control), 1.0 and 2.0tons/ha and three rates of neem leaf powder at 0.0(control), 1.0, 2.0 tons/ha respectively. Data were collected on percentage emergence, termite incidence and termite severity. These were subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA), and means were separated using least significant difference at 5% level of probability. The result shows that there were no significant (P= 0.05) differences in percentage emergence amongst treatment means due to palm bunch ash and neem leaf powder applications. Contrarily, palm bunch ash at 2.0 tons/ha recorded the least termite incidence especially at twelve weeks after planting (12WAP) with a value of 22.20% while control plot maintained highest values at 6WAP (48.70%) and 12WAP (48.30%) respectively. Also palm bunch ash at 2.0tons/ha depressed termite severity more than other treatments especially at 2 and 4 WAP (0.56) respectively. Control plots on the other hand consistently maintained highest termite severity throughout the trial with the highest value at 2 and 12WAP (1.56). Conclusively, palm bunch ash exhibited highest depressive action against termite on groundnut especially at higher application value (2.0tons/ha).

Keywords: groundnut, incidence, neem, palm, severity, termites

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Authors: Akiode Ayobami, Akiode Akinsewa, Odeku Mojisola, Salako Busola, Odutolu Omobola, Nuhu Khadija

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Purpose: Evidence exists that family planning use can contribute to reduction in infant and maternal mortality in any country. Despite these benefits, contraceptive use in Nigeria still remains very low, only 10% among married women. Understanding factors that predict contraceptive use is very important in order to improve the situation. In this paper, we analysed data from the 2013 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) to better understand predictors of contraceptive use in Nigeria. The use of logistics regression and other traditional models in this type of situation is not appropriate as they do not account for social structure influence brought about by the hierarchical nature of the data on response variable. We therefore used multilevel modelling to explore the determinants of contraceptive use in order to account for the significant variation in modern contraceptive use by socio-demographic, and other proximate variables across the different Nigerian states. Method: This data has a two-level hierarchical structure. We considered the data of 26, 403 married women of reproductive age at level 1 and nested them within the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja at level 2. We modelled use of modern contraceptive against demographic variables, being told about FP at health facility, heard of FP on TV, Magazine or radio, husband desire for more children nested within the state. Results: Our results showed that the independent variables in the model were significant predictors of modern contraceptive use. The estimated variance component for the null model, random intercept, and random slope models were significant (p=0.00), indicating that the variation in contraceptive use across the Nigerian states is significant, and needs to be accounted for in order to accurately determine the predictors of contraceptive use, hence the data is best fitted by the multilevel model. Only being told about family planning at the health facility and religion have a significant random effect, implying that their predictability of contraceptive use varies across the states. Conclusion and Recommendation: Results showed that providing FP information at the health facility and religion needs to be considered when programming to improve contraceptive use at the state levels.

Keywords: multilevel modelling, family planning, predictors, Nigeria

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Authors: Rosita Kanapeckaite

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Every year, some candidates who enroll in Generolas Jonas Zemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania do not complete a basic seven weeks cadet course and leave the Academy. Experience in other countries shows that psychological resilience grit and intrinsic motivation can lead to better course completion results. We examined the psychological resilience grit and intrinsic motivation as predictors of better results among newcomers who participate in the Cadet Basic Training (CBT) course. Based on past research and theory of other countries' military academies, we expected that resilience grit, and intrinsic motivation would predict performance in the Cadet Basic Training course. Results of regression analyses revealed that resilience and grit can predict better course results, but intrinsic motivation can not predict retention. These findings suggest that resilience and grit assessment and training may prove valuable in enhancing performance and retention within military training environments.

Keywords: military, intrinsic motivation, grit, resilience

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Authors: Selen Demirtas-Zorbaz

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This study aimed to determine if there is any relation between child–parent relationships and parental self-efficacy. The participants of this study are 208 parents, and 82,5% of them are mothers. The children’s age range are differed from 4 to 13 (x̄=7,8). The results showed that there is a significant positive correlation between positive relationship with parents and parental self-efficacy (r=0.52, p < .01); and significant negative correlation between conflict with parents and parental self-efficacy (r=-0.28, p < .01). Also, findings reveal that there was no significant correlation between the time spent with the child and conflict with parents (r=-0.08, p>.05). It was also found that there was no significant correlation between the time spends with the child and positive relationship with parents (r=0.08, p > 0.5). In addition to this; regression analysis’ results indicated that parental self-efficacy is significant predictors of conflict (β=-.268, t=-4.002, p < .001) and positive relationship with parents (β =.519, t= 8.733, p < .001) whereas time spent with children is not (β =-.070, t=-1,045, p > .05 for conflict; β =.061, t=1.023, p > .05 for positive relationship with parents).

Keywords: child-parent relationship, conflict with parents, positive relationship with parents, parental efficacy

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Authors: Amina Akhtar, Rory O'Connor

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Introduction: There remains significant morbidity and mortality in young pedestrians hit by motor vehicles, even in the era of pedestrian crossings and speed limits. The aim of this study was to compare incidence and injury severity of motor vehicle-related pedestrian trauma according to time of day and season in a young population, based on the supposition that injuries would be more prevalent during dusk and dawn and during autumn and winter. Methods: Data was retrieved for patients between 10-25 years old from the National Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) database who had been involved as pedestrians in motor vehicle accidents between 2015-2020. The incidence of injuries, their severity (using the Injury Severity Score [ISS]), hospital transfer time, and mortality were analysed according to the hours of daylight, darkness, and season. Results: The study identified a seasonal pattern, showing that autumn was the predominant season and led to 34.9% of injuries, with a further 25.4% in winter in comparison to spring and summer, with 21.4% and 18.3% of injuries, respectively. However, visibility alone was not a sufficient factor as 49.5% of injuries occurred during the time of darkness, while 50.5% occurred during daylight. Importantly, the greatest injury rate (number of injuries/hour) occurred between 1500-1630, correlating to school pick-up times. A further significant relationship between injury severity score (ISS) and daylight was demonstrated (p-value= 0.0124), with moderate injuries (ISS 9-14) occurring most commonly during the day (72.7%) and more severe injuries (ISS>15) occurred during the night (55.8%). Conclusion: We have identified a relationship between time of day and the frequency and severity of pedestrian trauma in young people. In addition, particular time groupings correspond to the greatest injury rate, suggesting that reduced visibility coupled with school pick-up times may play a significant role. This could be addressed through a targeted public health approach to implementing change. We recommend targeted public health measures to improve road safety that focus on these times and that increase the visibility of children combined with education for drivers.

Keywords: major trauma, paediatric trauma, road traffic accidents, diurnal pattern

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Authors: Roop Kiran, Muhammad Shoaib Zafar, Nazish Idrees Chaudhary

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Depression is known to be the second most frequently occurring comorbid mental illness among patients suffering from chronic physical conditions. Around the world, depression is associated with chronic liver diseases as one of the dominant symptoms. This evidence brings attention to the research about various predictors for short life expectancy and poor quality of life in patients suffering from comorbid depression and CLD. Following are the objectives of this study i) measure the occurrence rate of comorbid depression among patients with CLD and ii) find the frequency of risk factors between patients with and without depression comorbid with CLD. This is a quantitative study with a cross-sectional design. The research data was collected through a measure called Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) with a demographic Performa from 100 patients who visited the Department of Psychiatry for consultation at Mayo Hospital Lahore with a diagnosed CLD from the last four years. There were (42%) patients with CLD who had comorbid depression. Among depressed and non-depressed patients, significant differences were found (p<0.05) for unemployment in 25 (59.5%) males and 20 (34.5%) female patients, for co-morbidity in 25 (59.5%) males and 18 (31.0%) female patients, for illiteracy in 18 (42.9%) males and 13 (22.4%) female patients, for the history of CLD for more than the last 2years in 41 (97.6%) males and 47 (81.0%) female patients, for severity of CLD in 26 (61.9%) males and 20 (34.5%) female patients. This concludes that depression frequently occurs among patients with CLD. This study recommends considerable attention to plan preventative measures in the future and develop such intervention protocols that consider the management of risk factors that significantly influence comorbid depression with CLD.

Keywords: psychiatry, comorbid, health, quality of life

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Authors: Mohamed Abo El Nasr, Mohamed Shoeib, Abdelhamid Abdelkhalik, Amro Serag

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Background: Early assessment of severity of chest trauma, either blunt or penetrating is of critical importance in prediction of patient outcome. Different trauma scoring systems are widely available and are based on anatomical or physiological parameters to expect patient morbidity or mortality. Up till now, there is no ideal, universally accepted trauma score that could be applied in all trauma centers and is suitable for assessment of severity of chest trauma patients. Aim: Our aim was to compare various trauma scoring systems regarding their predictability of morbidity and mortality in chest trauma patients. Patients and Methods: This study was a prospective study including 400 patients with chest trauma who were managed at Tanta University Emergency Hospital, Egypt during a period of 2 years (March 2014 until March 2016). The patients were divided into 2 groups according to the mode of trauma: blunt or penetrating. The collected data included age, sex, hemodynamic status on admission, intrathoracic injuries, and associated extra-thoracic injuries. The patients outcome including mortality, need of thoracotomy, need for ICU admission, need for mechanical ventilation, length of hospital stay and the development of acute respiratory distress syndrome were also recorded. The relevant data were used to calculate the following trauma scores: 1. Anatomical scores including abbreviated injury scale (AIS), Injury severity score (ISS), New injury severity score (NISS) and Chest wall injury scale (CWIS). 2. Physiological scores including revised trauma score (RTS), Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score. 3. Combined score including Trauma and injury severity score (TRISS ) and 4. Chest-Specific score Thoracic trauma severity score (TTSS). All these scores were analyzed statistically to detect their sensitivity, specificity and compared regarding their predictive power of mortality and morbidity in blunt and penetrating chest trauma patients. Results: The incidence of mortality was 3.75% (15/400). Eleven patients (11/230) died in blunt chest trauma group, while (4/170) patients died in penetrating trauma group. The mortality rate increased more than three folds to reach 13% (13/100) in patients with severe chest trauma (ISS of >16). The physiological scores APACHE II and RTS had the highest predictive value for mortality in both blunt and penetrating chest injuries. The physiological score APACHE II followed by the combined score TRISS were more predictive for intensive care admission in penetrating injuries while RTS was more predictive in blunt trauma. Also, RTS had a higher predictive value for expectation of need for mechanical ventilation followed by the combined score TRISS. APACHE II score was more predictive for the need of thoracotomy in penetrating injuries and the Chest-Specific score TTSS was higher in blunt injuries. The anatomical score ISS and TTSS score were more predictive for prolonged hospital stay in penetrating and blunt injuries respectively. Conclusion: Trauma scores including physiological parameters have a higher predictive power for mortality in both blunt and penetrating chest trauma. They are more suitable for assessment of injury severity and prediction of patients outcome.

Keywords: chest trauma, trauma scores, blunt injuries, penetrating injuries

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Authors: Khalid Kaddoura, Ahmed Assad, Tarek Zayed

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Sewer pipelines are prone to deterioration over-time. In fact, their deterioration does not follow a fixed downward pattern. This is in fact due to the defects that propagate through their service life. Sewer pipeline defects are categorized into distinct groups. However, the main two groups are the structural and operational defects. By definition, the structural defects influence the structural integrity of the sewer pipelines such as deformation, cracks, fractures, holes, etc. However, the operational defects are the ones that affect the flow of the sewer medium in the pipelines such as: roots, debris, attached deposits, infiltration, etc. Yet, the process for each defect to emerge follows a cause and effect relationship. Deformation, which is the change of the sewer pipeline geometry, is one type of an influencing defect that could be found in many sewer pipelines due to many surrounding factors. This defect could lead to collapse if the percentage exceeds 15%. Therefore, it is essential to predict the deformation percentage before confronting such a situation. Accordingly, this study will predict the percentage of the deformation defect in sewer pipelines adopting the multiple regression analysis. Several factors will be considered in establishing the model, which are expected to influence the defamation defect severity. Besides, this study will construct a time-based curve to understand how the defect would evolve overtime. Thus, this study is expected to be an asset for decision-makers as it will provide informative conclusions about the deformation defect severity. As a result, inspections will be minimized and so the budgets.

Keywords: deformation, prediction, regression analysis, sewer pipelines

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Authors: T. Mrna, R. Doubrava

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This paper describes airworthiness requirements with respect damage tolerance. Damage tolerance determines the amount and magnitude of damage on parts of the airplane. Airworthiness requirements determine the amount of damage that can still be in flight capable of the condition. Component damage can be defined as barely visible impact damage, visible impact damage or clear visible impact damage. Damage is also distributed it according to the velocity. It is divided into low or high velocity impact damage. The severity of damage to the part of airplane divides the airworthiness requirements into several categories according to severity. Airworthiness requirements are determined by type airplane. All types of airplane do not have the same conditions for airworthiness requirements. This knowledge is important for designing and operating an airplane.

Keywords: airworthiness requirements, composite, damage tolerance, low and high velocity impact

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Authors: Sima Parvizi Omran, Rezvan Tavakoli, Mahnaz Safari, Mohammadreza Aghasadeghi, Abolfazl Fateh, Pooneh Rahimi

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Background: SARS-CoV-2, a single-stranded RNA betacoronavirus causes the global outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Several clinical and scientific concerns are raised by this pandemic. Genetic factors can contribute to pathogenesis and disease susceptibility. There are single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in many of the genes in the immune system that affect the expression of specific genes or functions of some proteins related to immune responses against viral infections. In this study, we analyzed the impact of polymorphism in the interferon alpha and beta receptor subunit 2 (IFNAR2) and dipeptidyl peptidase 9 (Dpp9) genes and clinical parameters on the susceptibility and resistance to Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Methods: A total of 330- SARS-CoV-2 positive patients (188 survivors and 142 nonsurvivors) were included in this study. All single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on IFNAR2 (rs2236757) and Dpp9 (rs2109069) were genotyped by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) method. Results: In survivor patients, the frequency of the favourable genotypes of IFNAR2 SNP (rs2236757 GC) was significantly higher than in nonsurvivor patients, and also Dpp9 (rs2109069 AT) genotypes were associated with the severity of COVID-19 infection. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that the severity of COVID- 19 patients was strongly associated with clinical parameters and unfavourable IFNAR2, Dpp9 SNP genotypes. In order to establish the relationship between host genetic factors and the severity of COVID-19 infection, further studies are needed in multiple parts of the world.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, interferon alpha and beta receptor subunit 2, dipeptidyl peptidase 9, single-nucleotide polymorphisms

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Authors: Agnieszka Nowogrodzka

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Objectives: ADHD is a neurodevelopmental disorder in which symptoms are most prominent throughout childhood. In the longer term, these symptoms, as well as the behaviour of the child, the experiences arising from the response of the community to the child's symptoms, as well as the functioning of the community itself, all contribute to the onset of secondary symptoms and subsequent outcomes of the disorder, such as crime or mental disorders. The purpose of this study is to estimate the prevalence of ADHD among Polish convicts serving a prison sentence. To that end, the study will focus on the relationship between the severity of ADHD and early childhood trauma, family relations, maladaptive cognitive schemas, as well as mental disorders. It is an attempt to assess the interdependence between ADHD, childhood experiences, and secondary outcomes. Methods: The study enrolled two groups of first-time convicts and repeat offenders aged between 21 and 65 –each of the study groups comprised 120 participants; 240 participants in total took part in the study. Participants were recruited in semi-open penal institutions in Poland (Poznań Custody Suite, Wronki Penal Institution, Iława Penal Institution). The control group comprised 110 men without criminal records aged 21 to 65. The DIVA 5.0 questionnaire was employed to identify the severity of ADHD symptoms. Other questionnaires employed in the course of the study included the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ), The Family Adaptability and Cohesion Scale IV (FACES-IV), Young Schema Questionnaire (YSQ), and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-30). Results: The findings of the study in question are currently still being compiled and will be shared during the conference. The findings of a pilot study involving two cohorts of convicts (each numbering 20 men) and a control group (20 men with no criminal records) indicate a significant correlation between ADHD and the experience of early childhood trauma. The severity of ADHD also shows a correlation with the assessment of the functioning of the family, with the subjects assessing the relationships in their families more negatively than the control group. Furthermore, the severity of ADHD is also correlated with maladaptive emotional schemas manifesting in the participants. The findings also show a correlation between selected dimensions and the severity of offenses.

Keywords: ADHD, social impairments, mental disorders, early childhood traumas, criminality

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Authors: Hyon I. Paek, Sang Rim Kim, Hyon A. Ryu

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In functional linear regression, one typical problem is to reduce dimension. Compared with multivariate linear regression, functional linear regression is regarded as an infinite-dimensional case, and the main task is to reduce dimensions of functional response and functional predictors. One common approach is to adapt functional principal component analysis (FPCA) on functional predictors and then use a few leading functional principal components (FPC) to predict the functional model. The leading FPCs estimated by the typical FPCA explain a major variation of the functional predictor, but these leading FPCs may not be mostly correlated with the functional response, so they may not be significant in the prediction for response. In this paper, we propose a supervised functional principal component analysis method for a functional response model with FPCs obtained by considering the correlation of the functional response. Our method would have a better prediction accuracy than the typical FPCA method.

Keywords: supervised, functional principal component analysis, functional response, functional linear regression

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Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

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Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity

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Authors: Kriti Upadhyay, Ashraf Ali, Puja Sohal, Randeep Guleria

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Background: In Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary diseases (COPD) pathogenesis oxidative stress plays an important role. Hypoxia-Inducible factor (HIF-1α) is a dimeric protein complex which Functions as a master transcriptional regulator of the adaptive response to hypoxiaand is a risk factor that increases when oxidative stress triggers. The role ofHIF-1αin COPD due to smoking is lacking. Aim: This study aims to evaluate the role of HIF-1α in smoker COPD patients comparing its association with diseases severity. Method: In this cross-sectional study, we recruited 87 subjects, 57 were smokers with COPD,15 were smokers without COPD and other 15 were non-smoker healthy controls. The mean age was 54.6± 9.32 (cases 57.08±8.15; controls 50.0± 9.8). There were 62%smokers, 25% non-smokers,7% tobacco chewers and 6% ex-smokers. Enzyme-linked immune sorbent assay (ELISA) method was used for analyzing serum samples wherein HIF-1α was analyzed by Sandwich-ELISA. Results: In smoker COPD patients, a significantly higher HIF-1α level showed positive association with hypoxia, smoking status and severity of disease (p=0.03). The mean value of HIF-1α was not significantly different in smokers without COPD and healthy controls. Conclusion: It is found that HIF-1α level was increased in smoker COPD, but not in smokers without COPD. This suggests that development of COPD drive the HIF-1α pathway and it correlates with the severity of diseases.

Keywords: COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, smokers, nonsmokers, hypoxia

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Authors: Lidia Kowalska, Edward Arseniuk

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Glume and leaf blotch is a disease of wheat caused by necrotrophic fungus Parastagonospora nodorum. It is a serious pathogen in many wheat-growing areas throughout the world. Use of resistant cultivars is the most effective and economical means to control the above-mentioned disease. Plant breeders and pathologists have worked intensively to incorporate resistance to the pathogen in new cultivars. Conventional methods of breeding for resistance can be supported by using the biotechnological ones, i.e., somatic embryogenesis and androgenesis. Therefore, an effort was undertaken to compare genetic variation in P. nodorum resistance among winter wheat somaclones, dihaploids and conventional varieties. For the purpose, a population of 16 somaclonal and 4 dihaploid wheat lines from six crosses were used to assess their resistance to P. nodorum under field conditions. Lines were grown in disease-free (fungicide protected) and inoculated micro plots in 2 replications of a split-plot design in a single environment. The plant leaves were inoculated with a mixture of P. nodorum isolates three times. Spore concentrations were adjusted to 4 x 10⁶ of viable spores per one milliliter. The disease severity was rated on a scale, where > 90% – susceptible, < 10% - resistant. Disease ratings of plant leaves showed statistically significant differences among all lines tested. Higher resistance to P. nodorum was observed more often on leaves of somaclonal lines than on dihaploid ones. On average, disease, severity reached 15% on leaves of somaclones and 30% on leaves of dihaploids. Some of the genotypes were showing low leaf infection, e.g. dihaploid D-33 (disease severity 4%) and a somaclone S-1 (disease severity 2%). The results from this study prove that dihaploid and somaclonal variation might be successfully used as an additional source of wheat resistance to the pathogen and it could be recommended to use in commercial breeding programs. The reported results prove that biotechnological methods may effectively be used in breeding for disease resistance of wheat to fungal necrotrophic pathogens.

Keywords: glume and leaf blotch, somaclonal, androgenic variation, wheat, resistance breeding

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