Search results for: peak daily demand prediction

Authors: Kaiping Xu, Aiju You, Lei Hua

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In view of the ecological environmental problems and protection needs of mountainous rivers in Zhejiang province, a suitable ecological water demand evaluation system was established based on investigation and monitoring. Taking the Kaihua river as an example, the research on ecological water demand and the current situation evaluation were carried out. The main types of ecological water demand in Majin River are basic ecological flow and lake wetland outside the river, and instream flow and water demands for water quality in Zhongcun river. In the wet season, each ecological water demand is 18.05m3/s and 2.56m3 / s, and in the dry season is 3.00m3/s and 0.61m3/s. Three indexes of flow, duration and occurrence time are used to evaluate the ecological water demand. The degree of ecological water demand in the past three years is low level of satisfaction. Meanwhile, the existing problems are analyzed, and put forward reasonable and operable safeguards and suggestions.

Keywords: Zhejiang province, mountainous river, ecological water demand, Kaihua river, evaluation

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Yousef S. Al-Othman

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The growth and expansion of the industrial facilities comes proportional to the market increasing demand of products and services. Furthermore, raw material producers such as oil companies usually undergo massive revamping projects to maintain a synchronized supply. These revamping projects are usually delivered through challenging construction projects held and associated with daily site risks related to the construction process. Henceforth, a case study related to these risks and corresponding on-spot corrective measurements has been made on a certain number of construction project contractors at Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) to derive the benefits and overall effectiveness of the on-spot corrective measurements during the construction phase of a project, and how would the same help in avoiding major incidents, ensuring a smooth, cost effective and on time delivery of the project. Findings of this case study shall have an added value to the overall risk management process by minimizing the daily site risks that may affect the project lead time, resulting in an undisturbed on-site construction process.

Keywords: oil and gas, risk management, construction projects, project lead time

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Authors: Lovro Štefan

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Background: The main purpose of the present study was to explore the correlations between physical activity and peak plantar pressure in dynamic mode. Methods: Participants were one hundred forty-six first-year university students (30.8% girls). Plantar pressure generated under each region of the foot (forefoot, midfoot, and heel) was measured by using Zebris dynamometric platform (Isny, Germany). The level of physical activity (PA) was calculated with the International Physical Activity questionnaire (IPAQ - short form). Results: In boys, forefoot peak plantar pressure was correlated with moderate PA (MPA; r=-0.21), vigorous PA (VPA; r=-0.18), and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA; r=-0.28). No significant correlations with other foot regions (p>0.05) were observed. In girls, forefoot peak plantar pressure was correlated with MPA (r =-0.30), VPA (r=-0.39) and MVPA (r=-0.38). Also, heel peak pressure was significantly correlated with MPA (r=-0.33), while no significant correlations with VPA (r=0.05) and MVPA (r=-0.15) were observed. Conclusion: This study shows that different intensities of PA were mostly correlated with forefoot peak plantar pressure in both boys and girls. Therefore, strategies that reduce plantar pressure through a more active lifestyle should be implemented within the education system.

Keywords: pedobarography, youth, exercise, associations

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

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Every year, fog formation over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) of Indian region during the winter months of December and January is believed to create numerous hazards, inconvenience, and economic loss to the inhabitants of this densely populated region of Indian subcontinent. The aim of the paper is to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of winter fog over IGPs. Long term ground observations of visibility and other meteorological parameters (1971-2010) have been analyzed to understand the formation of fog phenomena and its relevance during the peak winter months of January and December over IGP of India. In order to examine the temporal variability, time series and trend analysis were carried out by using the Mann-Kendall Statistical test. Trend analysis performed by using the Mann-Kendall test, accepts the alternate hypothesis with 95% confidence level indicating that there exists a trend. Kendall tau’s statistics showed that there exists a positive correlation between time series and fog frequency. Further, the Theil and Sen’s median slope estimate showed that the magnitude of trend is positive. Magnitude is higher during January compared to December for the entire IGP except in December when it is high over the western IGP. Decade wise time series analysis revealed that there has been continuous increase in fog days. The net overall increase of 99 % was observed over IGP in last four decades. Diurnal variability and average daily persistence were computed by using descriptive statistical techniques. Geo-statistical analysis of fog was carried out to understand the spatial variability of fog. Geo-statistical analysis of fog revealed that IGP is a high fog prone zone with fog occurrence frequency of more than 66% days during the study period. Diurnal variability indicates the peak occurrence of fog is between 06:00 and 10:00 local time and average daily fog persistence extends to 5 to 7 hours during the peak winter season. The results would offer a new perspective to take proactive measures in reducing the irreparable damage that could be caused due to changing trends of fog.

Keywords: fog, climatology, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis, spatial variability, temporal variability, visibility

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Authors: Yungtai Lo

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Two-part random effects models have been used to fit semi-continuous longitudinal data where the response variable has a point mass at 0 and a continuous right-skewed distribution for positive values. We review methods proposed in the literature for analyzing data with excess zeros. A two-part logit-log-normal random effects model, a two-part logit-truncated normal random effects model, a two-part logit-gamma random effects model, and a two-part logit-skew normal random effects model were used to examine effects of a bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use and daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months in a randomized controlled trial. We show in all four two-part models that the intervention promoted bottle-weaning and reduced daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers drinking from a bottle. We also show that there are no differences in model fit using either the logit link function or the probit link function for modeling the probability of bottle-weaning in all four models. Furthermore, prediction accuracy of the logit or probit link function is not sensitive to the distribution assumption on daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, truncated normal, gamma regression, skew normal, Pearson residual, receiver operating characteristic curve

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Authors: Aidan J. Bowes, Reaz Hasan

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The automotive industry is continually aiming to develop the aerodynamics of car body design. This may be for a variety of beneficial reasons such as to increase speed or fuel efficiency by reducing drag. However recently there has been a greater amount of focus on wind noise produced while driving. Designers in this industry seek a combination of both simplicity of approach and overall effectiveness. This combined with the growing availability of commercial CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) packages is likely to lead to an increase in the use of RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes) based CFD methods. This is due to these methods often being simpler than other CFD methods, having a lower demand on time and computing power. In this investigation the effectiveness of turbulent flow and acoustic noise prediction using RANS based methods has been assessed for different wing mirror geometries. Three different RANS based models were used, standard k-ε, realizable k-ε and k-ω SST. The merits and limitations of these methods are then discussed, by comparing with both experimental and numerical results found in literature. In general, flow prediction is fairly comparable to more complex LES (Large Eddy Simulation) based methods; in particular for the k-ω SST model. However acoustic noise prediction still leaves opportunities for more improvement using RANS based methods.

Keywords: acoustics, aerodynamics, RANS models, turbulent flow

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Authors: Chandra Mukherjee

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The present paper is a representation of the work done in the field of ECG signal analysis using MATLAB 7.1 Platform. An accurate and simple ECG feature extraction algorithm is presented in this paper and developed algorithm is validated using BIOPAC software. To detect the QRS peak, ECG signal is processed by following mentioned stages- First Derivative, Second Derivative and then squaring of that second derivative. Efficiency of developed algorithm is tested on ECG samples from different database and real time ECG signals acquired using BIOPAC system. Firstly we have lead wise specified threshold value the samples above that value is marked and in the original signal, where these marked samples face change of slope are spotted as R-peak. On the left and right side of the R-peak, faces change of slope identified as Q and S peak, respectively. Now the inbuilt Detection algorithm of BIOPAC software is performed on same output sample and both outputs are compared. ECG baseline modulation correction is done after detecting characteristics points. The efficiency of the algorithm is tested using some validation parameters like Sensitivity, Positive Predictivity and we got satisfied value of these parameters.

Keywords: first derivative, variable threshold, slope reversal, baseline modulation correction

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Authors: Muhammad Awais Shafique, Eiji Hato, Hideki Yaginuma

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Recently GPS data is used in a lot of studies to automatically reconstruct travel patterns for trip survey. The aim is to minimize the use of questionnaire surveys and travel diaries so as to reduce their negative effects. In this paper data acquired from GPS and accelerometer embedded in smart phones is utilized to predict the mode of transportation used by the phone carrier. For prediction, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) are employed. Moreover a unique method to improve the prediction results from these algorithms is also proposed. Results suggest that the prediction accuracy of AdaBoost after improvement is relatively better than the rest.

Keywords: accelerometer, AdaBoost, GPS, mode prediction, support vector machine

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Authors: Mirabbos Mirkamalov, Zavkiddin Mirtoshev

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The M 1.6 class flare occurred on 6^th of September 2012. Our observations correspond to the active region NOAA 11560 with the heliographic coordinates N04W71. The event took place between 04:00 UT and 04:45 UT, and was close to the solar limb at the western region. The flare temperature correlates with flux peak, increases for a short period (between 04:08 UT and 04:12 UT), rises impulsively, attains a maximum value of about 17 MK at 04:12 UT and gradually decreases after peak value. Around the peak we observe significant emissions of X-ray sources. Flux profiles of the X-ray emission exhibit a progressively faster raise and decline as the higher energy channels are considered.

Keywords: magnetic reconnection, solar atmosphere, solar flare, X-ray emission

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Authors: Jay L. Fu

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Patients with Alzheimer's disease progressively lose their memory and thinking skills and, eventually, the ability to carry out simple daily tasks. The disease is irreversible, but early detection and treatment can slow down the disease progression. In this research, publicly available MRI data and demographic data from 373 MRI imaging sessions were utilized to build models to predict dementia. Various machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, random forest, and neural network, were developed. Data were divided into training and testing sets, where training sets were used to build the predictive model, and testing sets were used to assess the accuracy of prediction. Key risk factors were identified, and various models were compared to come forward with the best prediction model. Among these models, the random forest model appeared to be the best model with an accuracy of 90.34%. MMSE, nWBV, and gender were the three most important contributing factors to the detection of Alzheimer’s. Among all the models used, the percent in which at least 4 of the 5 models shared the same diagnosis for a testing input was 90.42%. These machine learning models allow early detection of Alzheimer’s with good accuracy, which ultimately leads to early treatment of these patients.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, clinical diagnosis, magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning prediction

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Authors: Fang Liu, JunShuai Xue, JiaJia Yao, GuanLin Wu, ZuMaoLi, XueYan Yang, HePeng Zhang, ZhiPeng Sun

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Terahertz spectra is in great demand since last two decades for many photonic and electronic applications. III-Nitride resonant tunneling diode is one of the promising candidates for portable and compact THz sources. Room temperature microwave oscillator based on GaN/AlN resonant tunneling diode was reported in this work. The devices, grown by plasma-assisted molecular-beam epitaxy on free-standing c-plane GaN substrates, exhibit highly repeatable and robust negative differential resistance (NDR) characteristics at room temperature. To improve the interface quality at the active region in RTD, indium surfactant assisted growth is adopted to enhance the surface mobility of metal atoms on growing film front. Thanks to the lowered valley current associated with the suppression of threading dislocation scattering on low dislocation GaN substrate, a positive peak current density of record-high 2.1 MA/cm2 in conjunction with a peak-to-valley current ratio (PVCR) of 1.2 are obtained, which is the best results reported in nitride-based RTDs up to now considering the peak current density and PVCR values simultaneously. When biased within the NDR region, microwave oscillations are measured with a fundamental frequency of 0.31 GHz, yielding an output power of 5.37 µW. Impedance mismatch results in the limited output power and oscillation frequency described above. The actual measured intrinsic capacitance is only 30fF. Using a small-signal equivalent circuit model, the maximum intrinsic frequency of oscillation for these diodes is estimated to be ~260GHz. This work demonstrates a microwave oscillator based on resonant tunneling effect, which can meet the demands of terahertz spectral devices, more importantly providing guidance for the fabrication of the complex nitride terahertz and quantum effect devices.

Keywords: GaN resonant tunneling diode, peak current density, microwave oscillation, intrinsic capacitance

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Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna

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Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

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Authors: Arvinder Kaur, Deepti Chopra

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Software Entropy Metrics for bug prediction have been validated on various software systems by different researchers. In our previous research, we have validated that Software Entropy Metrics calculated for Mozilla subsystem’s predict the future bugs reasonably well. In this study, the Software Entropy metrics are calculated for a subsystem of Android and it is noticed that these metrics are not suitable for bug prediction. The results are compared with a subsystem of Mozilla and a comparison is made between the two software systems to determine the reasons why Software Entropy metrics are not applicable for Android.

Keywords: android, bug prediction, mining software repositories, software entropy

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Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

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Useful lifetime evaluation of chevron rubber spring was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of chevron rubber spring. In this study, we performed characteristic analysis and useful lifetime prediction of chevron rubber spring. Rubber material coefficient was obtained by curve fittings of uni-axial tension, equi bi-axial tension and pure shear test. Computer simulation was executed to predict and evaluate the load capacity and stiffness for chevron rubber spring. In order to useful lifetime prediction of rubber material, we carried out the compression set with heat aging test in an oven at the temperature ranging from 50°C to 100°C during a period 180 days. By using the Arrhenius plot, several useful lifetime prediction equations for rubber material was proposed.

Keywords: chevron rubber spring, material coefficient, finite element analysis, useful lifetime prediction

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Authors: Amit R. Bhende, G. K. Awari

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Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is one of key technologies to realize prognostics and health management that is being widely applied in many industrial systems to ensure high system availability over their life cycles. The present work proposes a data-driven method of RUL prediction based on multiple health state assessment for rolling element bearings. Bearing degradation data at three different conditions from run to failure is used. A RUL prediction model is separately built in each condition. Feed forward back propagation neural network models are developed for prediction modeling.

Keywords: bearing degradation data, remaining useful life (RUL), back propagation, prognosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 408

Authors: J. Bertrandt, A. Kłos, R. Waszkowski, T. Nowicki, R. Pytlak, E. Stęzycka, A. Gazdzinska

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The aim of the work was estimation of copper intake with the daily food rations used for alimentation of students of military high schools and soldiers doing compulsory military service in the Polish Army. An average planned copper content in daily food rations used for alimentation of students and soldiers amounted to 2.49±0.35 mg, and 2.44±0.25 mg respectively. The copper content in the daily food ration given for consumption to students amounted from 1.81±0.14 mg to 2.58±0.44 mg while daily food rations served to soldiers delivered from 2.06±0.45 mg to 2.13±0.33 mg. The copper content in the rations planned for students and soldiers’ alimentation was within the limits of the norms obligatory in Poland. Daily food rations given for consumption, except rations served for students, were within the limits of the recommended norms, but food rations really eaten by examined men didn’t cover the requirements for copper.

Keywords: copper, daily food ration, military service, food security, nutrition

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Qiang Zhang, Chun Yuan

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Since the PU (Prediction Unit) decision process is the most time consuming part of the emerging HEVC (High Efficient Video Coding) standardin intra and inter frame coding, this paper proposes the fast PU decision algorithm and speed up the algorithm using CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture). In intra frame coding, the fast PU decision algorithm uses the texture features to skip intra-frame prediction or terminal the intra-frame prediction for smaller PU size. In inter frame coding of HEVC, the fast PU decision algorithm takes use of the similarity of its own two Nx2N size PU's motion vectors and the hierarchical structure of CU (Coding Unit) partition to skip some modes of PU partition, so as to reduce the motion estimation times. The accelerate algorithm using CUDA is based on the fast PU decision algorithm which uses the GPU to make the motion search and the gradient computation could be parallel computed. The proposed algorithm achieves up to 57% time saving compared to the HM 10.0 with little rate-distortion losses (0.043dB drop and 1.82% bitrate increase on average).

Keywords: HEVC, PU decision, inter prediction, intra prediction, CUDA, parallel

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Authors: J. K. Alhassan, C. S. Actsu

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This study is on the prediction of feature performance of undergraduate students with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). With the growing decline in the quality academic performance of undergraduate students, it has become essential to predict the students’ feature academic performance early in their courses of first and second years and to take the necessary precautions using such prediction-based information. The feed forward multilayer neural network model was used to train and develop a network and the test carried out with some of the input variables. A result of 80% accuracy was obtained from the test which was carried out, with an average error of 0.009781.

Keywords: academic performance, artificial neural network, prediction, students

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Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

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This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: adaptive methods, LSE, MSE, prediction of financial Markets

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Authors: A. Derrouazin, N. Mekkakia-M, R. Taleb, M. Helaimi, A. Benbouali

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Nowadays the use of different sources of renewable energy for the production of electricity is the concern of everyone, as, even impersonal domestic use of the electricity in isolated sites or in town. As the conventional sources of energy are shrinking, a need has arisen to look for alternative sources of energy with more emphasis on its optimal use. This paper presents design of a sustainable Hybrid Power System (PV-Wind-Storage) assisted by grid as supplementary sources applied to case study residential house, to meet its entire energy demand. A Fuzzy control system model has been developed to optimize and control flow of power from these sources. This energy requirement is mainly fulfilled from PV and Wind energy stored in batteries module for critical load of a residential house and supplemented by grid for base and peak load. The system has been developed for maximum daily households load energy of 3kWh and can be scaled to any higher value as per requirement of individual /community house ranging from 3kWh/day to 10kWh/day, as per the requirement. The simulation work, using intelligent energy management, has resulted in an optimal yield leading to average reduction in cost of electricity by 50% per day.

Keywords: photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine, battery, microcontroller, fuzzy control (FC), Matlab

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Authors: Jen-Fa Huang, Yu-Wei Chiu, Jhe-Ren Cheng

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Visible light communication (VLC) technique has become useful method via LED light blinking. Several issues on indoor mobile robot positioning with LED blinking are examined in the paper. In the transmitter, we control the transceivers blinking message. Orthogonal Walsh codes are adopted for such purpose on auto-correlation function (ACF) to detect signal sequences. In the robot receiver, we set the frame of time by 1 ns passing signal from the transceiver to the mobile robot. After going through many periods of time detecting the peak value of ACF in the mobile robot. Moreover, the transceiver transmits signal again immediately. By capturing three times of peak value, we can know the time difference of arrival (TDOA) between two peak value intervals and finally analyze the accuracy of the robot position.

Keywords: Visible Light Communication, Auto-Correlation Function (ACF), peak value of ACF, Time difference of Arrival (TDOA)

Procedia PDF Downloads 273

Authors: Fadzel Wong Chee Ping, Chee Keong Chen, Foong Kiew Ooi, Mahaneem Mohamed

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Introduction: To date, information on the effects of bee bread supplementation on isokinetic muscular performance are lacking. Therefore, this study was carried out to investigate the effects of 8-week bee bread supplementation on isokinetic muscular strength and power in young athletes. Methodology: Twelve male athletes (age: 24.0±1.8 years; BMI: 22.3 ± 1.3 kg.m-2; VO2max: 52.0 ± 2.8 mL.kg-1.min-1) were recruited in this randomised double blind, placebo-controlled crossover study. Participants consumed either bee bread at a dosage of 20 g.d-1 or placebo for 8 weeks. An isokinetic dynamometer was used to measure participants’ lower limb muscular strength and power prior (pre-test) and post (post-test) 8 weeks of experimental period. Testing angular velocities were set at 180o.s-1 and 300o.s-1 to determine knee flexion and extension muscular peak torque (an indicator of muscular strength) and average power of the participants. Statistical analyses were performed using ANOVA with repeated measures. Results: Isokinetic knee extension peak torque and average power at 180o.s-1, and isokinetic knee flexion peak torque and average power at 180o.s-1 were significantly (p<0.05) higher at post-test compared to pre-test with bee bread supplementation. However, significant differences were not observed in the measured parameters between pre- and post-test with placebo supplementation. Conclusion: Supplementation of bee bread for 8 weeks at a dosage of 20 g daily increased some of the measured isokinetic muscular strength and power parameters in young athletes.

Keywords: bee bread, isokinetic, power, strength

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Authors: Jiun Jeon, Byung-Ju Yi

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This paper investigates modeling and shape prediction of elastic kinematic chains such as colonoscopy. 2D and 3D models of elastic kinematic chains are suggested and their behaviors are demonstrated through simulation. To corroborate the effectiveness of those models, experimental work is performed using a magnetic sensor system.

Keywords: elastic kinematic chain, shape prediction, colonoscopy, modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 565

Authors: Fang Liu, Jia Jia Yao, Guan Lin Wu, Ren Jie Liu, Zhuang Guo

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Leveraging plasma-assisted molecular beam epitaxy (PA-MBE) on c-plane free-standing GaN substrates, this work demonstrates high-performance AlN/GaN double-barrier resonant tunneling diodes (RTDs) featuring stable and repeatable negative differential resistance (NDR) characteristics at room temperature. By scaling down the barrier thickness of AlN and the lateral mesa size of collector, a record peak current density of 1551 kA/cm2 is achieved, accompanied by a peak-to-valley current ratio (PVCR) of 1.24. This can be attributed to the reduced resonant tunneling time under thinner AlN barrier and the suppressed external incoherent valley current by reducing the dislocation number contained in the RTD device with the smaller size of collector. Statistical analysis of the NDR performance of RTD devices with different AlN barrier thicknesses reveals that, as the AlN barrier thickness decreases from 1.5 nm to 1.25 nm, the average peak current density increases from 145.7 kA/cm2 to 1215.1 kA/cm2, while the average PVCR decreases from 1.45 to 1.1, and the peak voltage drops from 6.89 V to 5.49 V. The peak current density obtained in this work represents the highest value reported for nitride-based RTDs to date, while maintaining a high PVCR value simultaneously. This illustrates that an ultra-scaled RTD based on a vertical quantum-well structure and lateral collector size is a valuable approach for the development of nitride-based RTDs with excellent NDR characteristics, revealing their great potential applications in high-frequency oscillation sources and high-speed switch circuits.

Keywords: GaN resonant tunneling diode, peak current density, peak-to-valley current ratio, negative differential resistance

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Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang

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In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction

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Authors: Taiheng Zhang, Hongbin Zhao

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Compressed air energy storage become increasingly vital for solving intermittency problem of some renewable energies. In this study, a new hybrid system on a combination of compressed air energy storage (CAES), solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC), gas turbine (GT), and organic Rankine cycle (ORC) is proposed. In the new system, excess electricity during off-peak time is utilized to compress air. Then, the compressed air is stored in compressed air storage tank. During peak time, the compressed air enters the cathode of SOFC directly instead of combustion chamber of traditional CAES. There is no air compressor consumption of SOFC-GT in peak demand, so SOFC- GT can generate power with high-efficiency. In addition, the waste heat of exhaust from GT is recovered by applying an ORC. Three different organic working fluid (R123, R601, R601a) of ORC are chosen to evaluate system performance. Based on Aspen plus and Engineering Equation Solver (EES) software, energy and exergoeconomic analysis are used to access the viability of the combined system. Besides, the effect of two parameters (fuel flow and ORC turbine inlet pressure) on energy efficiency is studied. The effect of low-price electricity at off-peak hours on thermodynamic criteria (total unit exergy cost of products and total cost rate) is also investigated. Furthermore, for three different organic working fluids, the results of round-trip efficiency, exergy efficiency, and exergoeconomic factors are calculated and compared. Based on thermodynamic performance and exergoeconomic performance of different organic working fluids, the best suitable working fluid will be chosen. In conclusion, this study can provide important guidance for system efficiency improvement and viability.

Keywords: CAES, SOFC, ORC, energy and exergoeconomic analysis, organic working fluids

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Authors: Saif Alomari

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The paper aims at giving physical and mathematical descriptions of how the structural parameters of a resonant tunnelling diode (RTD) affect its output characteristics. Specifically, the value of the peak voltage, peak current, peak to valley current ratio (PVCR), and the difference between peak and valley voltages and currents ΔV and ΔI. A simulation-based approach using the Non-Equilibrium Green Function (NEGF) formalism based on the Silvaco ATLAS simulator is employed to conduct a series of designed experiments. These experiments show how the doping concentration in the emitter and collector layers, their thicknesses, and the width of the barriers and the quantum well influence the above-mentioned output characteristics. Each of these parameters was systematically changed while holding others fixed in each set of experiments. Factorial experiments are outside the scope of this work and will be investigated in future. The physics involved in the operation of the device is thoroughly explained and mathematical models based on curve fitting and underlaying physical principles are deduced. The models can be used to design devices with predictable output characteristics. These models were found absent in the literature that the author acanned. Results show that the doping concentration in each region has an effect on the value of the peak voltage. It is found that increasing the carrier concentration in the collector region shifts the peak to lower values, whereas increasing it in the emitter shifts the peak to higher values. In the collector’s case, the shift is either controlled by the built-in potential resulting from the concentration gradient or the conductivity enhancement in the collector. The shift to higher voltages is found to be also related to the location of the Fermi-level. The thicknesses of these layers play a role in the location of the peak as well. It was found that increasing the thickness of each region shifts the peak to higher values until a specific characteristic length, afterwards the peak becomes independent of the thickness. Finally, it is shown that the thickness of the barriers can be optimized for a particular well width to produce the highest PVCR or the highest ΔV and ΔI. The location of the peak voltage is important in optoelectronic applications of RTDs where the operating point of the device is usually the peak voltage point. Furthermore, the PVCR, ΔV, and ΔI are of great importance for building RTD-based oscillators as they affect the frequency response and output power of the oscillator.

Keywords: peak to valley ratio, peak voltage shift, resonant tunneling diodes, structural parameters

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Authors: Jose Ruiz, Jose Velasquez, Holger Lovon

Abstract:

Peruvian university buildings are critical structures for which very little research about its seismic vulnerability is available. This paper develops a probabilistic methodology that predicts seismic loss for university buildings with simulated fragility functions. Two university buildings located in the city of Cusco were analyzed. Fragility functions were developed considering seismic and structural parameters uncertainty. The fragility functions were generated with the Latin Hypercube technique, an improved Montecarlo-based method, which optimizes the sampling of structural parameters and provides at least 100 reliable samples for every level of seismic demand. Concrete compressive strength, maximum concrete strain and yield stress of the reinforcing steel were considered as the key structural parameters. The seismic demand is defined by synthetic records which are compatible with the elastic Peruvian design spectrum. Acceleration records are scaled based on the peak ground acceleration on rigid soil (PGA) which goes from 0.05g to 1.00g. A total of 2000 structural models were considered to account for both structural and seismic variability. These functions represent the overall building behavior because they give rational information regarding damage ratios for defined levels of seismic demand. The university buildings show an expected Mean Damage Factor of 8.80% and 19.05%, respectively, for the 0.22g-PGA scenario, which was amplified by the soil type coefficient and resulted in 0.26g-PGA. These ratios were computed considering a seismic demand related to 10% of probability of exceedance in 50 years which is a requirement in the Peruvian seismic code. These results show an acceptable seismic performance for both buildings.

Keywords: fragility functions, university buildings, loss assessment, Montecarlo simulation, latin hypercube

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Jin-Hui Lee, Myung-Min Oh

Abstract:

The application of temporary abiotic stresses before crop harvest is a potential strategy to enhance phytochemical content. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of various UV-A LED lights on the growth and content of bioactive compounds in kale (Brassica oleracea var. acephala). Fourteen-day-old kale seedlings were cultivated in a plant factory with artificial lighting (air temperature of 20℃, relative humidity of 60%, photosynthesis photon flux density (PPFD) of 125 µmol·m⁻²·s⁻¹) for 3 weeks. Kale plants were irradiated by four types of UV-A LEDs (peak wavelength; 365, 375, 385, and 395 nm) with 30 W/m² for 7 days. As a result, image chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm) value of kale leaves was lower as the UV-A LEDs peak wavelength was shorter. Fresh and dry weights of shoots and roots of kale plants were significantly higher in the plants under UV-A than the control at 7 days of treatment. In particular, the growth was significantly increased with a longer peak wavelength of the UV-A LEDs. The results of leaf area and specific leaf weight showed a similar pattern with those of growth characteristics. Chlorophyll content was highest in kale leaves subjected to UV-A LEDs with the peak wavelength of 395 nm at 3 days of treatment compared with the control. Total phenolic contents of UV-A LEDs with the peak wavelength of 395 nm at 5 and 6 days of treatment were 44% and 47% higher than those of the control, respectively. Antioxidant capacity showed almost the same pattern as the results of total phenol content. The activity of phenylalanine ammonia-lyase was approximately 11% and 8% higher in the UV-A LEDs with the peak wavelength of 395 nm compared to the control at 5 and 6 days of treatment, respectively. Our results imply that the UV-A LEDs with relative longer peak wavelength were effective to improve growth as well as the content of bioactive compounds of kale plants.

Keywords: bioactive compounds, growth, Kale, UV-A LEDs

Procedia PDF Downloads 112