Search results for: climatology

Authors: Johnstone Walubengo Wangusi

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Climate change is undeniably altering the frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution of extreme weather events worldwide. In this paper, we explore the complex interconnections between climate change and extreme weather phenomena, drawing upon research from atmospheric science, geology, and climatology. We examine the underlying mechanisms driving these changes, the impacts on natural ecosystems and human societies, and strategies for adaptation and mitigation. By synthesizing insights from interdisciplinary research, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted relationship between climate change and extreme weather, informing efforts to address the challenges posed by a changing climate.

Keywords: climate change, extreme weather, atmospheric science, geology, climatology, impacts, adaptation, mitigation

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Authors: Mace Bentley, Zhuojun Duan, Tobias Gerken, Dudley Bonsal, Henry Way, Endre Szakal, Mia Pham, Hunter Donaldson, Chelsea Lang, Hayden Abbott, Leah Wilcynzski

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Air pollution has the potential to modify the lifespan and intensity of thunderstorms and the properties of lightning. Using data mining and geovisualization, we investigate how background climate and weather conditions shape variability in urban air pollution and how this, in turn, shapes thunderstorms as measured by the intensity, distribution, and frequency of cloud-to-ground lightning. A spatiotemporal analysis was conducted in order to identify thunderstorms using high-resolution lightning detection network data. Over seven million lightning flashes were used to identify more than 196,000 thunderstorms that occurred between 2006 - 2020 in the Washington, DC Metropolitan Region. Each lightning flash in the dataset was grouped into thunderstorm events by means of a temporal and spatial clustering algorithm. Once the thunderstorm event database was constructed, hourly wind direction, wind speed, and atmospheric thermodynamic data were added to the initiation and dissipation times and locations for the 196,000 identified thunderstorms. Hourly aerosol and air quality data for the thunderstorm initiation times and locations were also incorporated into the dataset. Developing thunderstorm climatologies using a lightning tracking algorithm and lightning detection network data was found to be useful for visualizing the spatial and temporal distribution of urban augmented thunderstorms in the region.

Keywords: lightning, urbanization, thunderstorms, climatology

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Authors: A. D. Rao, Sachiko Mohanty, R. Gayathri, V. Ranga Rao

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Modeling on coupled physical and biogeochemical processes of coastal waters is vital to identify the primary production status under different natural and anthropogenic conditions. About 7, 500 km length of Indian coastline is occupied with number of semi enclosed coastal bodies such as estuaries, inlets, bays, lagoons, and other near shore, offshore shelf waters, etc. This coastline is also rich in wide varieties of ecosystem flora and fauna. Directly/indirectly extensive domestic and industrial sewage enter into these coastal water bodies affecting the ecosystem character and create environment problems such as water quality degradation, hypoxia, anoxia, harmful algal blooms, etc. lead to decline in fishery and other related biological production. The present study is focused on the southeast coast of India, starting from Pulicat to Gulf of Mannar, which is rich in marine diversity such as lagoon, mangrove and coral ecosystem. Three dimensional Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) along with Darwin biogeochemical module is configured for the western Bay of Bengal (BoB) to study the biogeochemistry over this region. The biogeochemical module resolves the cycling of carbon, phosphorous, nitrogen, silica, iron and oxygen through inorganic, living, dissolved and particulate organic phases. The model domain extends from 4°N-16.5°N and 77°E-86°E with a horizontal resolution of 1 km. The bathymetry is derived from General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO), which has a resolution of 30 sec. The model is initialized by using the temperature, salinity filed from the World Ocean Atlas (WOA2013) of National Oceanographic Data Centre with a resolution of 0.25°. The model is forced by the surface wind stress from ASCAT and the photosynthetically active radiation from the MODIS-Aqua satellite. Seasonal climatology of nutrients (phosphate, nitrate and silicate) for the southwest BoB region are prepared using available National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) in-situ data sets and compared with the WOA2013 seasonal climatology data. The model simulations with the two different initial conditions viz., WOA2013 and the generated NIO climatology, showed evident changes in the concentration and the evolution of the nutrients in the study region. It is observed that the availability of nutrients is more in NIO data compared to WOA in the model domain. The model simulated primary productivity is compared with the spatially distributed satellite derived chlorophyll data and at various locations with the in-situ data. The seasonal variability of the model simulated primary productivity is also studied.

Keywords: Bay of Bengal, Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model, MITgcm, biogeochemistry, primary productivity

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

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Every year, fog formation over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) of Indian region during the winter months of December and January is believed to create numerous hazards, inconvenience, and economic loss to the inhabitants of this densely populated region of Indian subcontinent. The aim of the paper is to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of winter fog over IGPs. Long term ground observations of visibility and other meteorological parameters (1971-2010) have been analyzed to understand the formation of fog phenomena and its relevance during the peak winter months of January and December over IGP of India. In order to examine the temporal variability, time series and trend analysis were carried out by using the Mann-Kendall Statistical test. Trend analysis performed by using the Mann-Kendall test, accepts the alternate hypothesis with 95% confidence level indicating that there exists a trend. Kendall tau’s statistics showed that there exists a positive correlation between time series and fog frequency. Further, the Theil and Sen’s median slope estimate showed that the magnitude of trend is positive. Magnitude is higher during January compared to December for the entire IGP except in December when it is high over the western IGP. Decade wise time series analysis revealed that there has been continuous increase in fog days. The net overall increase of 99 % was observed over IGP in last four decades. Diurnal variability and average daily persistence were computed by using descriptive statistical techniques. Geo-statistical analysis of fog was carried out to understand the spatial variability of fog. Geo-statistical analysis of fog revealed that IGP is a high fog prone zone with fog occurrence frequency of more than 66% days during the study period. Diurnal variability indicates the peak occurrence of fog is between 06:00 and 10:00 local time and average daily fog persistence extends to 5 to 7 hours during the peak winter season. The results would offer a new perspective to take proactive measures in reducing the irreparable damage that could be caused due to changing trends of fog.

Keywords: fog, climatology, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis, spatial variability, temporal variability, visibility

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Authors: Kostas Philippopoulos, Chris G. Tzanis, Despina Deligiorgi

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Climate change adaptation requires the exploitation of renewable energy sources such as wind. However, climate variability can affect the regional wind energy potential and consequently the available wind power production. The goal of the research project is to examine the impact of atmospheric circulation on wind energy production over Greece. In the context of synoptic climatology, the proposed novel methodology employs Self-Organizing Maps for grouping and classifying the atmospheric circulation and nationally-aggregated capacity factor time series for a 30-year period. The results indicate the critical effect of atmospheric circulation on the national aggregated wind energy production values and therefore address the issue of optimum distribution of wind farms for a specific region.

Keywords: wind energy, atmospheric circulation, capacity factor, self-organizing maps

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Authors: Endrick Barnacin, Jean-Luc Henry, Jimmy Nagau, Jack Molinie

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Palynology is a field of interest in many disciplines due to its multiple applications: chronological dating, climatology, allergy treatment, and honey characterization. Unfortunately, the analysis of a pollen slide is a complicated and time consuming task that requires the intervention of experts in the field, which are becoming increasingly rare due to economic and social conditions. That is why the need for automation of this task is urgent. A lot of studies have investigated the subject using different standard image processing descriptors and sometimes hand-crafted ones.In this work, we make a comparative study between classical feature extraction methods (Shape, GLCM, LBP, and others) and Deep Learning (CNN, Autoencoders, Transfer Learning) to perform a recognition task over 80 regional pollen species. It has been found that the use of Transfer Learning seems to be more precise than the other approaches

Keywords: pollens identification, features extraction, pollens classification, automated palynology

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Authors: Tiee-Jian Wu, Chih-Yuan Hsu

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Mode estimation is an important task, because it has applications to data from a wide variety of sources. We propose a semi-parametric approach to estimate the mode of an unknown continuous multivariate density function. Our approach is based on a weighted average of a parametric density estimate using the Box-Cox transform and a non-parametric kernel density estimate. Our semi-parametric mode estimate improves both the parametric- and non-parametric- mode estimates. Specifically, our mode estimate solves the non-consistency problem of parametric mode estimates (at large sample sizes) and reduces the variability of non-parametric mode estimates (at small sample sizes). The performance of our method at practical sample sizes is demonstrated by simulation examples and two real examples from the fields of climatology and image recognition.

Keywords: Box-Cox transform, density estimation, mode seeking, semiparametric method

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Authors: Ali Dehgan Moroozeh, B. Farhadi Bansouleh

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Evapotranspiration is one of the most important components of the hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important variable in water and energy balances on the earth’s surface, and knowledge of the distribution of ET is a key factor in hydrology, climatology, agronomy and ecology studies. Many researchers have a valid relationship, which is a function of climate factors, to estimate the potential evapotranspiration presented to the plant water stress or water loss, prevent. The FAO-Penman method (PM) had been recommended as a standard method. This method requires many data and these data are not available in every area of world. So, other methods should be evaluated for these conditions. When sufficient or reliable data to solve the PM equation are not available then Hargreaves equation can be used. The Hargreaves equation (HG) requires only daily mean, maximum and minimum air temperature extraterrestrial radiation .In this study, Hargreaves method (HG) were evaluated in 12 stations in the North West region of Iran. Results of HG and M.HG methods were compared with results of PM method. Statistical analysis of this comparison showed that calibration process has had significant effect on efficiency of Hargreaves method.

Keywords: evapotranspiration, hargreaves, equation, FAO-Penman method

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

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The aim of the paper is to analyze the characteristics of winter fog in terms of its trend and spatial-temporal variability over Indo-Gangetic plains. The study reveals that during last four and half decades (1971-2015), an alarming increasing trend in fog frequency has been observed during the winter months of December and January over the study area. The frequency of fog has increased by 118.4% during the peak winter months of December and January. It has also been observed that on an average central part of IGP has 66.29% fog days followed by west IGP with 41.94% fog days. Further, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition and Mann-Kendall variation analysis are used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of winter fog. The findings have significant implications for the further research of fog over IGP and formulate robust strategies to adapt the fog variability and mitigate its effects. The decision by Delhi Government to implement odd-even scheme to restrict the use of private vehicles in order to reduce pollution and improve quality of air may result in increasing the alarming increasing trend of fog over Delhi and its surrounding areas regions of IGP.

Keywords: fog, climatology, spatial variability, temporal variability

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Authors: Tovondahiniriko Fanjirindratovo, Olga Ramiarinjanahary, Paulisimone Rasoavonjy

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The sunshine duration, which is the sum of all the moments when the solar beam radiation is up to a minimal value, is an important parameter for climatology, tourism, agriculture and solar energy. Its measure is usually given by a pyrheliometer installed on a two-axis solar tracker. Due to the high cost of this device and the availability of global radiation on a horizontal surface, on the other hand, several studies have been done to make a correlation between global radiation and sunshine duration. Most of these studies are fitted for the northern hemisphere using a pyrheliometric database. The aim of the present work is to list and assess all the existing methods and apply them to Reunion Island, a tropical region in the southern hemisphere. Using a database of ten years, global, diffuse and beam radiation for a horizontal surface are employed in order to evaluate the uncertainty of existing algorithms for a tropical region. The methodology is based on indirect comparison because the solar beam radiation is not measured but calculated by the beam radiation on a horizontal surface and the sun elevation angle.

Keywords: Carpentras method, data fitting, global radiation, sunshine duration, Slob and Monna algorithm, step algorithm

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Authors: Endrick Barnacin, Jean-Luc Henry, Jack Molinié, Jimmy Nagau, Hélène Delatte, Gérard Lebreton

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Palynology is a field of interest for many disciplines. It has multiple applications such as chronological dating, climatology, allergy treatment, and even honey characterization. Unfortunately, the analysis of a pollen slide is a complicated and time-consuming task that requires the intervention of experts in the field, which is becoming increasingly rare due to economic and social conditions. So, the automation of this task is a necessity. Pollen slides analysis is mainly a visual process as it is carried out with the naked eye. That is the reason why a primary method to automate palynology is the use of digital image processing. This method presents the lowest cost and has relatively good accuracy in pollen retrieval. In this work, we propose a system combining recognition and grouping of pollen. It consists of using a Logistic Model Tree to classify pollen already known by the proposed system while detecting any unknown species. Then, the unknown pollen species are divided using a cluster-based approach. Success rates for the recognition of known species have been achieved, and automated clustering seems to be a promising approach.

Keywords: pollen recognition, logistic model tree, expectation-maximization, local binary pattern

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Authors: Avinash Kumar Ranjan, Akash Anand

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The Land Surface Temperature (LST) is an essential factor accompanying to rise urban heat and climate warming within a city in micro level. It is also playing crucial role in global change study as well as radiation budgets measuring in heat balance studies. The information of LST is very substantial to recognize the urban climatology, ecological changes, anthropological and environmental interactions etc. The Chief motivation of present study focus on time series of ANN model that taken a sequence of LST values of 2000, 2008 and 2016, realize the pattern of variation within the data set and predict the LST values for 2024 and 2032. The novelty of this study centers on evaluation of LST using series of multi-temporal MODIS (MOD 11A2) satellite data by Maximum Value Composite (MVC) techniques. The results derived from this study endorse the proficiency of Geoinformatics Technology with integration of ANN to gain knowledge, understanding and building of precise forecast from the complex physical world database. This study will also focus on influence of Land Use/ Land Cover (LU/LC) variation on Land Surface Temperature.

Keywords: LST, geoinformatics technology, ANN, MODIS satellite imagery, MVC

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Authors: Sudhanshu Kumar, Raghvendra Chandrakar, Arun Chakraborty

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In the ocean, the temperature extremes have the potential to devastate marine habitats, ecosystems together with ensuing socioeconomic consequences. In recent years, these extreme events are more frequent and intense globally and their increasing trend is expected to continue in the upcoming decades. It recently attracted public interest, as well as scientific researchers, which motivates us to analyze the current marine heatwave (MHW) events in the Bay of Bengal region. we have isolated 107 MHW events (above 90th percentile threshold) in this region of the Indian Ocean and investigated the variation in duration, intensity, and frequency of MHW events during our test period (1982-2021). Our study reveals that in the study region the average of three MHW events per year with an increasing linear trend of 1.11 MHW events per decade. In the analysis, we found the longest MHW event which lasted about 99 days, which is far greater than an average MHW event duration. The maximum intensity was 5.29°C (above the climatology-mean), while the mean intensity was 2.03°C. In addition, we observed net heat flux accompanied by anticyclonic eddies to be the primary cause of these events. Moreover, we concluded that these events affect sea surface height and oceanic productivity, highlighting the adverse impact of MHWs on marine ecosystems.

Keywords: marine heatwaves, global warming, climate change, sea surface temperature, marine ecosystem

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wang

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The study of extreme rainfall events is very important for flood management in river basins and the design of water conservancy infrastructure. Evaluation of quantiles of annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) is required in different environmental fields, agriculture operations, renewable energy sources, climatology, and the design of different structures. Therefore, the annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) was performed at different stations in Pakistan. Multiple probability distributions, log normal (LN), generalized extreme value (GEV), Gumbel (max), and Pearson type3 (P3) were used to find out the most appropriate distributions in different stations. The L moments method was used to evaluate the distribution parameters. Anderson darling test, Kolmogorov- Smirnov test, and chi-square test showed that two distributions, namely GUM (max) and LN, were the best appropriate distributions. The quantile estimate of a multi-parameter PD offers extreme rainfall through a specific location and is therefore important for decision-makers and planners who design and construct different structures. This result provides an indication of these multi-parameter distribution consequences for the study of sites and peak flow prediction and the design of hydrological maps. Therefore, this discovery can support hydraulic structure and flood management.

Keywords: RAMSE, multiple frequency analysis, annual maximum rainfall, L-moments

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Authors: Yanuar Tri Wahyu Saputra, Ramadhani Pamapta Putra

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Karimunjawa is one among Indonesian islands which is lacking of electricity supply. Despite condition above, Karimunjawa is an important tourism object in Indonesia's Central Java Province. Solar Power Plant is a potential technology to be applied in Karimunjawa, in order to fulfill the island's electrical supply need and to increase daily life and tourism quality among tourists and local population. This optimation modeling of Karimunjawa uses HOMER software program. The data we uses include wind speed data in Karimunjawa from BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics), annual weather data in Karimunjawa from NASA, electricity requirements assumption data based on number of houses and business infrastructures in Karimunjawa. This modeling aims to choose which three system categories offer the highest financial profit with the lowest total Net Present Cost (NPC). The first category uses only PV with 8000 kW of electrical power and NPC value of $6.830.701. The second category uses hybrid system which involves both 1000 kW PV and 100 kW generator which results in total NPC of $6.865.590. The last category uses only generator with 750 kW of electrical power that results in total NPC of $ 16.368.197, the highest total NPC among the three categories. Based on the analysis above, we can conclude that the most optimal way to fulfill the electricity needs in Karimunjawa is to use 8000 kW PV with lower maintenance cost.

Keywords: Karimunjawa, renewable energy, solar power plant, HOMER

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Authors: Muhammad Luthfi, Sutikno Sutikno, Purhadi Purhadi

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Weather forecast has necessarily been improved to provide the communities an accurate and objective prediction as well. To overcome such issue, the numerical-based weather forecast was extensively developed to reduce the subjectivity of forecast. Yet the Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) outputs are unfortunately issued without taking dynamical weather behavior and local terrain features into account. Thus, NWPs outputs are not able to accurately forecast the weather quantities, particularly for medium and long range forecast. The aim of this research is to aid and extend the development of ensemble forecast for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency of Indonesia. Ensemble method is an approach combining various deterministic forecast to produce more reliable one. However, such forecast is biased and uncalibrated due to its underdispersive or overdispersive nature. As one of the parametric methods, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) generates the calibrated ensemble forecast and constructs predictive PDF for specified period. Such method is able to utilize ensemble of any size but does not take spatial correlation into account. Whereas space dependencies involve the site of interest and nearby site, influenced by dynamic weather behavior. Meanwhile, Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) reckons the spatial correlation to generate future weather quantities, though merely built by a single deterministic forecast, and is able to generate an ensemble of any size as well. This research conducts both BMA and GOP to generate the calibrated ensemble forecast for the daily temperature at few meteorological sites nearby Indonesia international airport.

Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, ensemble forecast, geostatistical output perturbation, numerical weather prediction, temperature

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Authors: Natasha Correa Vitória Bandeira, Lais Cordeiro Soares, Claudineia Brazil, Luciane Teresa Salvi

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The intense rain event that occurred between February 16 and 18, 2018, in the city of Barcarena in Pará, located in the North region of Brazil, demonstrates the importance of analyzing this type of event. The metropolitan mesoregion of Belem was severely punished by rains much above the averages normally expected for that time of year; this phenomenon affected, in addition to the capital, the municipalities of Barcarena, Murucupi and Muruçambá. Resulting in a great flood in the rivers of the region, whose basins were affected with great intensity of precipitation, causing concern for the local population because in this region, there are located companies that accumulate ore tailings, and in this specific case, the dam of any of these companies, leaching the ore to the water bodies of the Murucupi River Basin. This article aims to characterize this phenomenon through a special analysis of the distribution of rainfall, using data from atmospheric soundings, satellite images, radar images and data from the GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), in addition to rainfall stations located in the study region. The results of the work demonstrated a dissociation between the data measured in the meteorological stations and the other forms of analysis of this extreme event. Monitoring carried out solely on the basis of data from pluviometric stations is not sufficient for monitoring and/or diagnosing extreme weather events, and investment by the competent bodies is important to install a larger network of pluviometric stations sufficient to meet the demand in a given region.

Keywords: extreme precipitation, great flood, GPCP, ore dam

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Authors: Khatia Tavidashvili, Nino Jamrishvili, Valerian Omsarashvili

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Studies of the vertical distribution of the air temperature in the atmosphere have great value for the solution of different problems of meteorology and climatology (meteorological forecast of showers, thunderstorms, and hail, weather modification, estimation of climate change, etc.). From the end of May 2015 in Kakheti after 25-year interruption, the work of anti-hail service was restored. Therefore, in connection with climate change, the need for the detailed study of the contemporary regime of the vertical distribution of the air temperature above this territory arose. In particular, the indicated information is necessary for the optimum selection of rocket means with the works on the weather modification (fight with the hail, the regulation of atmospheric precipitations, etc.). Construction of the detailed maps of the potential damage distribution of agricultural crops from the hail, etc. taking into account the dimensions of hailstones in the clouds according to the data of radar measurements and height of locality are the most important factors. For now, in Georgia, there is no aerological probing of atmosphere. To solve given problem we processed information about air temperature profiles above Telavi, at 27 km above earth's surface. Information was gathered during four observation time (4, 10, 16, 22 hours with local time. After research, we found vertical distribution of the average monthly values of the air temperature above Kakheti in ‎2012-2017 from January to December. Research was conducted from 0.543 to 27 km above sea level during four periods of research. In particular, it is obtained: -during January the monthly average air temperature linearly diminishes with 2.6 °C on the earth's surface to -57.1 °C at the height of 10 km, then little it changes up to the height of 26 km; the gradient of the air temperature in the layer of the atmosphere from 0.543 to 8 km - 6.3 °C/km; height of zero isotherm - is 1.33 km. -during July the air temperature linearly diminishes with 23.5 °C to -64.7 °C at the height of 17 km, then it grows to -47.5 °C at the height of 27 km; the gradient of the air temperature of - 6.1 °C/km; height of zero isotherm - is 4.39 km, which on 0.16 km is higher than in the sixties of past century.

Keywords: hail, Kakheti, meteorology, vertical distribution of the air temperature

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Authors: Stamatis Zoras, Boris Ceranic, Ashley Redfern

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Green House Gas emissions from domestic properties currently account for a substantial part of the total UK’s carbon emissions and is a priority area for UK to reach zero carbon emissions. However, GHG emissions of urban complexes depend on building, road, structural developments etc surfaces that form urban microclimate. This in turn may further influence renewable energy system power generation that depend on solar or wind potential. Moreover, urban climatic conditions are also influenced by the installation of those power generation systems that may impact their own power generation efficiency. Increased air temperature is attributed to densely installed roof based solar panels that consequently impact their own production efficiency. Installation of roof based solar panels requires adequate guidance to enable housing businesses, councils and organisations to implement sufficient measures for improved power generation in relation to local urban microclimate. How microclimate is affected and how, in return, it affects solar power productivity. Derby Council & Derby Homes have been collecting solar panel power generation data for a large number of properties. The different building areas and system operation performance will be studied against microclimate conditions through time. It is envisaged that the outcomes of the study will support a working up strategy for Derby city to ensure that owned homes would be able to access information and data of solar photo voltaic PV and solar thermal panels potential on social housing, helping residents on low incomes create their own green energy to power their homes and heat their homeshot water.

Keywords: microclimate, solar power, urban climatology, urban morphology

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Authors: Benhammadi Hocine, Fehdi Chemseddine, Chaffai Hicham

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The study site is the plateau Cheria, a city in south eastern Algeria (Tebessa) thanks to its structure perched syncline is the region of Tebessa a real water tower. Special rates provided by some boreholes and wells around the city Cheria have long been led to believe that the reserves were virtually limitless. The investigations carried out in this region have located karstified limestone areas at depth of 100 meters of the carbonate formation. During the last two decades a rainfall deficit has increased the effect of drought has caused an increase in flow from this aquifer. The effect on water resources is a significant and progressive reduction of the static level of the karst aquifer. The qualitative aspect has also been marked by degradation. This climate variability marked by the decade of drought (1990/2000) has had the effect on the local population, a forced change of their activity primarily agricultural. Abandoning agro pastoral mode due to prolonged drought, populations chose agriculture maraichère consumer a lot of water, this increasing the depletion of water resources. This change in activity was accompanied by a rural exodus to urban areas. The result has led to an increase in population in the urban areas, this has resulted in an increase in water demand and an increase in emissions (waste water). Uncontrolled discharges contribute to pollute a little more groundwater. The second consequence is type Geotechnical, it is the appearance of sinkholes, results of the alternating periods of drought and violent floods. Sinkholes are a real concern for the management and urban development. An interdisciplinary contribution (geology, hydrology, climatology and management) is essential to reduce or avoid impacts in different sectors.

Keywords: aquifer, carbonate formation, drought, exodus, resources, chéria, Algéria

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Authors: Orkan Ozcan, Nebiye Musaoglu, Murat Turkes

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Climate change is largely recognized as one of the real, pressing and significant global problems. The concept of ‘climate change vulnerability’ helps us to better comprehend the cause/effect relationships behind climate change and its impact on human societies, socioeconomic sectors, physiographical and ecological systems. In this study, multifactorial spatial modeling was applied to evaluate the vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest ecosystem to climate change. As a result, the geographical distribution of the final Environmental Vulnerability Areas (EVAs) of the forest ecosystem is based on the estimated final Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) values. This revealed that at current levels of environmental degradation, physical, geographical, policy enforcement and socioeconomic conditions, the area with a ‘very low’ vulnerability degree covered mainly the town, its surrounding settlements and the agricultural lands found mainly over the low and flat travertine plateau and the plains at the east and southeast of the district. The spatial magnitude of the EVAs over the forest ecosystem under the current environmental degradation was also determined. This revealed that the EVAs classed as ‘very low’ account for 21% of the total area of the forest ecosystem, those classed as ‘low’ account for 36%, those classed as ‘medium’ account for 20%, and those classed as ‘high’ account for 24%. Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected future climate indicators, both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier, hotter, more continental and more water-deficient climate. This analysis holds true for all future scenarios, with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030. However, the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become a semiarid climate in the period between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. All the observed and estimated results and assessments summarized in the study show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site, which is characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and the maquis vegetation, will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation, climate change and variability.

Keywords: forest ecosystem, Mediterranean climate, RCP scenarios, vulnerability analysis

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Authors: Gómez R. Marta, Martín M. Jesús María

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The general aim of this paper identifies the areas of highest concentration of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) around the incinerator through the use of dispersion models. Atmospheric dispersion models are useful tools for estimating and prevent the impact of emissions from a particular source in air quality. These models allow considering different factors that influence in air pollution: source characteristics, the topography of the receiving environment and weather conditions to predict the pollutants concentration. The PCDD/Fs, after its emission into the atmosphere, are deposited on water or land, near or far from emission source depending on the size of the associated particles and climatology. In this way, they are transferred and mobilized through environmental compartments. The modelling of PCDD/Fs was carried out with following tools: Atmospheric Dispersion Model Software (ADMS) and Surfer. ADMS is a dispersion model Gaussian plume, used to model the impact of air quality industrial facilities. And Surfer is a program of surfaces which is used to represent the dispersion of pollutants on a map. For the modelling of emissions, ADMS software requires the following input parameters: characterization of emission sources (source type, height, diameter, the temperature of the release, flow rate, etc.) meteorological and topographical data (coordinate system), mainly. The study area was set at 5 Km around the incinerator and the first population center nearest to focus PCDD/Fs emission is about 2.5 Km, approximately. Data were collected during one year (2013) both PCDD/Fs emissions of the incinerator as meteorology in the study area. The study has been carried out during period's average that legislation establishes, that is to say, the output parameters are taking into account the current legislation. Once all data required by software ADMS, described previously, are entered, and in order to make the representation of the spatial distribution of PCDD/Fs concentration and the areas affecting them, the modelling was proceeded. In general, the dispersion plume is in the direction of the predominant winds (Southwest and Northeast). Total levels of PCDD/Fs usually found in air samples, are from <2 pg/m3 for remote rural areas, from 2-15 pg/m3 in urban areas and from 15-200 pg/m3 for areas near to important sources, as can be an incinerator. The results of dispersion maps show that maximum concentrations are the order of 10-8 ng/m3, well below the values considered for areas close to an incinerator, as in this case.

Keywords: atmospheric dispersion, dioxin, furan, incinerator

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Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio, M. Ragosta

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The effects of extreme heat events are increasing in recent years. Humans are forced to adjust themselves to adverse climatic conditions. The impact of weather on human health has become public health significance, especially in light of climate change and rising frequency of devasting weather events (e.g., heat waves and floods). The interest of scientific community is widely known. In particular, the associations between temperature and mortality are well studied. Weather conditions are natural factors that affect the human organism. Recent works show that the temperature threshold at which an impact is seen varies by geographic area and season. These results suggest heat warning criteria should consider local thresholds to account for acclimation to local climatology as well as the seasonal timing of a forecasted heat wave. Therefore, it is very important the problem called ‘local warming’. This is preventable with adequate warning tools and effective emergency planning. Since climate change has the potential to increase the frequency of these types of events, improved heat warning systems are urgently needed. This would require a better knowledge of the full impact of extreme heat on morbidity and mortality. The majority of researchers who analyze the associations between human health and weather variables, investigate the effect of air temperature and bioclimatic indices. These indices combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed and are very important to determine the human thermal comfort. Health impact studies of weather events showed that the prevention is an essential element to dramatically reduce the impact of heat waves. The summer Italian of 2012 was characterized with high average temperatures (con un +2.3°C in reference to the period 1971-2000), enough to be considered as the second hottest summer since 1800. Italy was the first among countries in Europe which adopted tools for to predict these phenomena with 72 hours in advance (Heat Health Watch Warning System - HHWWS). Furthermore, in Italy heat alert criteria relies on the different Indexes, for example Apparent temperature, Scharlau index, Thermohygrometric Index, etc. This study examines the importance of developing public health policies that protect the most vulnerable people (such as the elderly) to extreme temperatures, highlighting the factors that confer susceptibility.

Keywords: heat waves, Italy, local warming, temperature

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Authors: Nozar Kishi, Babak Kamrani, Filmon Habte

Abstract:

Natural hazards such as earthquakes and tropical storms, are very frequent and highly destructive in Japan. Japan experiences, every year on average, more than 10 tropical cyclones that come within damaging reach, and earthquakes of moment magnitude 6 or greater. We have developed stochastic catastrophe models to address the risk associated with the entire suite of damaging events in Japan, for use by insurance, reinsurance, NGOs and governmental institutions. KCC’s (Karen Clark and Company) catastrophe models are procedures constituted of four modular segments: 1) stochastic events sets that would represent the statistics of the past events, hazard attenuation functions that could model the local intensity, vulnerability functions that would address the repair need for local buildings exposed to the hazard, and financial module addressing policy conditions that could estimates the losses incurring as result of. The events module is comprised of events (faults or tracks) with different intensities with corresponding probabilities. They are based on the same statistics as observed through the historical catalog. The hazard module delivers the hazard intensity (ground motion or wind speed) at location of each building. The vulnerability module provides library of damage functions that would relate the hazard intensity to repair need as percentage of the replacement value. The financial module reports the expected loss, given the payoff policies and regulations. We have divided Japan into regions with similar typhoon climatology, and earthquake micro-zones, within each the characteristics of events are similar enough for stochastic modeling. For each region, then, a set of stochastic events is developed that results in events with intensities corresponding to annual occurrence probabilities that are of interest to financial communities; such as 0.01, 0.004, etc. The intensities, corresponding to these probabilities (called CE, Characteristics Events) are selected through a superstratified sampling approach that is based on the primary uncertainty. Region specific hazard intensity attenuation functions followed by vulnerability models leads to estimation of repair costs. Extensive economic exposure model addresses all local construction and occupancy types, such as post-linter Shinand Okabe wood, as well as concrete confined in steel, SRC (Steel-Reinforced Concrete), high-rise.

Keywords: typhoon, earthquake, Japan, catastrophe modelling, stochastic modeling, stratified sampling, loss model, ERM

Procedia PDF Downloads 243

Authors: Balogun R. Ayodeji, Adefisan E. Adesanya, Adeyewa Z. Debo, E. C. Okogbue

Abstract:

The need to investigate diurnal weather circles in West Africa is coined in the fact that complex interactions often results from diurnal weather patterns. This study investigates diurnal circles of wind, rainfall and convective properties using six (6) hour interval data from the ERA-Interim and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The seven distinct zones, used in this work and classified as rainforest (west-coast, dry, Nigeria-Cameroon), Savannah (Nigeria, and Central Africa and South Sudan (CASS)), Sudano-Sahel, and Sahel, were clearly indicated by the rainfall pattern in each zones. Results showed that the land‐ocean warming contrast was more strongly sensitive to seasonal cycle and has been very weak during March-May (MAM) but clearly spelt out during June-September (JJAS). Dipoles of wind convergence/divergence and wet/dry precipitation, between CASS and Nigeria Savannah zones, were identified in morning and evening hours of MAM, whereas distinct night and day anomaly, in the same location of CASS, were found to be consistent during the JJAS season. Diurnal variation of convective properties showed that stratiform precipitation, due to the extremely low occurrence of flashcount climatology, was dominant during morning hours for both MAM and JJAS than other periods of the day. On the other hand, diurnal variation of the system sizes showed that small system sizes were most dominant during the day time periods for both MAM and JJAS, whereas larger system sizes were frequent during the evening, night, and morning hours. The locations of flashcount and system sizes agreed with earlier results that morning and day-time hours were dominated by stratiform precipitation and small system sizes respectively. Most results clearly showed that the eastern locations of Sudano and Sahel were consistently dry because rainfall and precipitation features were predominantly few. System sizes greater than or equal to 800 km² were found in the western axis of the Sudano and Sahel zones, whereas the eastern axis, particularly in the Sahel zone, had minimal occurrences of small/large system sizes. From the results of locations of extreme systems, flashcount greater than 275 in one single system was never observed during the morning (6Z) diurnal, whereas, the evening (18Z) diurnal had the most frequent cases (at least 8) of flashcount exceeding 275 in one single system. Results presented had shown the importance of diurnal variation in understanding precipitation, flashcount, system sizes patterns at diurnal scales, and understanding land-ocean contrast, precipitation, and wind field anomaly at diurnal scales.

Keywords: convective properties, diurnal circle, flashcount, system sizes

Procedia PDF Downloads 106