Search results for: meteorological measurment

Authors: Magdalena Grudzińska

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Passive systems allow solar radiation to be converted into thermal energy thanks to appropriate building construction. Greenhouse systems are particularly worth attention, due to the low costs of their realization and strong architectural appeal. The paper discusses the energy effects of using passive greenhouse systems, such as glazed balconies, in an example residential building. The research was carried out for five localities in Poland, belonging to climatic zones different in terms of external air temperature and insolation: Koszalin, Poznań, Lublin, Białystok and Zakopane The analysed apartment had a floor area of approximately 74 m² Three thermal zones were distinguished in the flat - the balcony, the room adjacent to it, and the remaining space, for which various internal conditions were defined. Calculations of the energy demand were made using the dynamic simulation program, based on the control volume method. The climatic data were represented by Typical Meteorological Years, prepared on the basis of source data collected from 1971 to 2000. In each locality, the introduction of a passive greenhouse system led to a lower demand for heating in the apartment, and the shortening of the heating season. The smallest effectiveness of passive solar energy systems was noted in Białystok. Demand for heating was reduced there by 14.5% and the heating season remained the longest, due to low temperatures of external air and small sums of solar radiation intensity. In Zakopane, energy savings came to 21% and the heating season was reduced to 107 days, thanks to the greatest insolation during winter. The introduction of greenhouse systems caused an increase in cooling demand in the warmer part of the year, but total energy demand declined in each of the discussed places. However, potential energy savings are smaller if the building's annual life cycle is taken into consideration, and amount from 5.6% up to 14%. Koszalin and Zakopane are localities in which the greenhouse system allows the best energy results to be achieved. It should be emphasized that favourable conditions for introducing greenhouse systems are connected with different climatic conditions. In the seaside area (Koszalin) they result from high temperatures in the heating season and the smallest insolation in the summer period, while in the mountainous area (Zakopane) they result from high insolation in the winter and low temperatures in the summer. In the region of middle and middle-eastern Poland active systems (such as solar energy collectors or photovoltaic panels) could be more beneficial, due to high insolation during summer. It is assessed that passive systems do not eliminate the need for traditional heating in Poland. They can, however, substantially contribute to lower use of non-renewable fuels and the shortening of the heating season. The calculations showed diversification in the effectiveness of greenhouse systems resulting from climatic conditions, and allowed to identify areas which are the most suitable for the passive use of solar radiation.

Keywords: solar energy, passive greenhouse systems, glazed balconies, climatic conditions

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Authors: Kibrom Hadush

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Countries like Ethiopia, whose economy is mainly rain-fed dependent agriculture, are highly vulnerable to climate variability and weather extremes. Sub-seasonal (monthly) and dekadal forecasts are hence critical for crop production and water resource management. Therefore, this paper was conducted to study the predictability and variability of Kiremt rainfall over the northern half of Ethiopia on monthly and dekadal time scales in association with global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at different lag time. Trends in rainfall have been analyzed on annual, seasonal (Kiremt), monthly, and dekadal (June–September) time scales based on rainfall records of 36 meteorological stations distributed across four homogenous zones of the northern half of Ethiopia for the period 1992–2017. The results from the progressive Mann–Kendall trend test and the Sen’s slope method shows that there is no significant trend in the annual, Kiremt, monthly and dekadal rainfall total at most of the station's studies. Moreover, the rainfall in the study area varies spatially and temporally, and the distribution of the rainfall pattern increases from the northeast rift valley to northwest highlands. Methods of analysis include graphical correlation and multiple linear regression model are employed to investigate the association between the global SSTs and Kiremt rainfall over the homogeneous rainfall zones and to predict monthly and dekadal (June-September) rainfall using SST predictors. The results of this study show that in general, SST in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is the main source of the predictive skill of the Kiremt rainfall variability over the northern half of Ethiopia. The regional SSTs in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean as well contribute to the Kiremt rainfall variability over the study area. Moreover, the result of the correlation analysis showed that the decline of monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over most of the homogeneous zones of the study area are caused by the corresponding persistent warming of the SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean during the period 1992 - 2017. It is also found that the monthly and dekadal Kiremt rainfall over the northern, northwestern highlands and northeastern lowlands of Ethiopia are positively correlated with the SST in the western equatorial Pacific, eastern and tropical northern the Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, the SSTs in the western equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans are positively correlated to the Kiremt season rainfall in the northeastern highlands. Overall, the results showed that the prediction models using combined SSTs at various ocean regions (equatorial and tropical) performed reasonably well in the prediction (With R2 ranging from 30% to 65%) of monthly and dekadal rainfall and recommends it can be used for efficient prediction of Kiremt rainfall over the study area to aid with systematic and informed decision making within the agricultural sector.

Keywords: dekadal, Kiremt rainfall, monthly, Northern Ethiopia, sea surface temperature

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Authors: Biao Hu, Mark E. J. Cutler, Alexandra C. Morel

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Global climate change introduces both opportunities and challenges for crop productivity, with differences in temperature stress across latitudes and crop types, one of the most important meteorological factors impacting crop productivity. The development and productivity of crops are particularly impacted when temperatures occur outwith their preferred ranges, which has implications for global agri-food sector. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of heat stress and cold stress on UK arable lands for rapeseed cropping between 1961 and 2020, using a 1 km spatial resolution temperature dataset. Stress indices, including heat stress index (fHS), cold degree days (CDD) and a normalized rapeseed production loss index (fRPL) were established, and stress values and percentages of days experiencing each stress investigated. Results found increasing fHS and the areas impacted by heat stress during flowering (from April to May) and reproductive (from April to July) stages over time, with the mean fHS being negatively correlated with latitude. This pattern of increased heat stress agrees with previous research on rapeseed cropping, which have been noted at global scale in response to changes in climate. The decreasing number of CDD and frequency of cold stress suggest cold stress decreased during flowering, vegetative (from September to March next year) and reproductive stages, and the magnitude of cold stress in the south of the UK was smaller to that compared to northern regions over the studied periods. The decreasing CDD matches observed declining cold stress of global rapeseed and of other crops such as rice in the northern hemisphere. Notably, compared with previous studies which mainly tracked the trends of heat stress and cold stress individually, this study conducted a comparative analysis of the rate of their changes and found heat stress of rapeseed crops in the UK was increasing at a faster rate than cold stress, which was seen to decrease during flowering. The increasing values of fRPL, with statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) between regions of the UK, suggested an increasing loss in rapeseed due to heat stress in the studied period. The largest increasing trend in heat stress was observed in South-eastern England, where a decreasing cold stress was taking place. While the present study observed a relatively slowly increasing heat stress, there is a worrying trend of increasing heat stress for rapeseed cropping into the future, as the cases of other main rapeseed cropping systems in the northern hemisphere including China, European counties, the US, and Canada. This study demonstrates the negative impact of global warming on rapeseed cropping, highlighting the adaptation and mitigations strategies for sustainable rapeseed cultivation across the globe.

Keywords: rapeseed, UK, heat stress, cold stress, global climate change, spatiotemporal analysis, production loss index

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Authors: Samart Porncharoen, Nisa Pakvilai

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The elevated levels of air pollutants in regional atmospheric environments is a significant problem that affects human health in Thailand, particularly in the Chao Phraya River Basin. Of concern are issues surrounding ambient air pollution such as particulate matter, gaseous pollutants and more specifically concerning air pollution along the river. Therefore, the spatio-temporal study of air pollution in this real environment can gain more accurate air quality data for making formalized environmental policy in river basins. In order to inform such a policy, a study was conducted over a period of January –December, 2015 to continually collect measurements of various pollutants in both urban and regional locations in the Chao Phraya River Basin. This study investigated the air pollutants in many diverse environments along the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand in 2015. Multivariate Analysis Techniques such as Principle Component Analysis (PCA) and Path analysis were utilised to classify air pollution in the surveyed location. Measurements were collected in both urban and rural areas to see if significant differences existed between the two locations in terms of air pollution levels. The meteorological parameters of various particulates were collected continually from a Thai pollution control department monitoring station over a period of January –December, 2015. Of interest to this study were the readings of SO2, CO, NOx, O3, and PM10. Results showed a daily arithmetic mean concentration of SO2, CO, NOx, O3, PM10 reading at 3±1 ppb, 0.5± 0.5 ppm, 30±21 ppb, 19±16 ppb, and 40±20 ug/m3 in urban locations (Bangkok). During the same time period, the readings for the same measurements in rural areas, Ayutthaya (were 1±0.5 ppb, 0.1± 0.05 ppm, 25±17 ppb, 30±21 ppb, and 35±10 ug/m3respectively. This show that Bangkok were located in highly polluted environments that are dominated source emitted from vehicles. Further, results were analysed to ascertain if significant seasonal variation existed in the measurements. It was found that levels of both gaseous pollutants and particle matter in dry season were higher than the wet season. More broadly, the results show that levels of pollutants were measured highest in locations along the Chao Phraya. River Basin known to have a large number of vehicles and biomass burning. This correlation suggests that the principle pollutants were from these anthropogenic sources. This study contributes to the body of knowledge surrounding ambient air pollution such as particulate matter, gaseous pollutants and more specifically concerning air pollution along the Chao Phraya River Basin. Further, this study is one of the first to utilise continuous mobile monitoring along a river in order to gain accurate measurements during a data collection period. Overall, the results of this study can be used for making formalized environmental policy in river basins in order to reduce the physical effects on human health.

Keywords: air pollution, Chao Phraya river basin, meteorology, seasonal variation, principal component analysis

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Authors: Mathias U. Bonet, Pericles Pilidis, Georgios Doulgeris

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A gas turbine-powered cruise Liner is scheduled to transport pilgrim passengers from Lagos-Nigeria to the Islamic port city of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia. Since the gas turbine is an air breathing machine, changes in the density and/or mass flow at the compressor inlet due to an encounter with variations in weather conditions induce negative effects on the performance of the power plant during the voyage. In practice, all deviations from the reference atmospheric conditions of 15 ^oC and 1.103 bar tend to affect the power output and other thermodynamic parameters of the gas turbine cycle. Therefore, this paper seeks to evaluate how a simple cycle marine gas turbine power plant would react under a variety of scenarios that may be encountered during a voyage as the ship sails across the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea before arriving at its designated port of discharge. It is also an assessment that focuses on the effect of varying aerodynamic and hydrodynamic conditions which deteriorate the efficient operation of the propulsion system due to an increase in resistance that results from some projected levels of the ship hull fouling. The investigated passenger ship is designed to run at a service speed of 22 knots and cover a distance of 5787 nautical miles. The performance evaluation consists of three separate voyages that cover a variety of weather conditions in winter, spring and summer seasons. Real-time daily temperatures and the sea states for the selected transit route were obtained and used to simulate the voyage under the aforementioned operating conditions. Changes in engine firing temperature, power output as well as the total fuel consumed per voyage including other performance variables were separately predicted under both calm and adverse weather conditions. The collated data were obtained online from the UK Meteorological Office as well as the UK Hydrographic Office websites, while adopting the Beaufort scale for determining the magnitude of sea waves resulting from rough weather situations. The simulation of the gas turbine performance and voyage analysis was effected through the use of an integrated Cranfield-University-developed computer code known as ‘Turbomatch’ and ‘Poseidon’. It is a project that is aimed at developing a method for predicting the off design behavior of the marine gas turbine when installed and operated as the main prime mover for both propulsion and powering of all other auxiliary services onboard a passenger cruise liner. Furthermore, it is a techno-economic and environmental assessment that seeks to enable the forecast of the marine gas turbine part and full load performance as it relates to the fuel requirement for a complete voyage.

Keywords: cruise ship, gas turbine, hull fouling, performance, propulsion, weather

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Authors: Ahmad Saadiq, Neeraj Sahu

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Sediment, which comprises of solid particles of mineral and organic material are transported by water. In river systems, the amount of sediment transported is controlled by both the transport capacity of the flow and the supply of sediment. The transport of sediment in rivers is important with respect to pollution, channel navigability, reservoir ageing, hydroelectric equipment longevity, fish habitat, river aesthetics and scientific interests. The sediment load transported in a river is a very complex hydrological phenomenon. Hence, sediment transport has attracted the attention of engineers from various aspects, and different methods have been used for its estimation. So, several experimental equations have been submitted by experts. Though the results of these methods have considerable differences with each other and with experimental observations, because the sediment measures have some limits, these equations can be used in estimating sediment load. In this present study, two black box models namely, an SRC (Sediment Rating Curve) and ANN (Artificial Neural Network) are used in the simulation of the suspended sediment load. The study is carried out for Seonath subbasin. Seonath is the biggest tributary of Mahanadi river, and it carries a vast amount of sediment. The data is collected for Jondhra hydrological observation station from India-WRIS (Water Resources Information System) and IMD (Indian Meteorological Department). These data include the discharge, sediment concentration and rainfall for 10 years. In this study, sediment load is estimated from the input parameters (discharge, rainfall, and past sediment) in various combination of simulations. A sediment rating curve used the water discharge to estimate the sediment concentration. This estimated sediment concentration is converted to sediment load. Likewise, for the application of these data in ANN, they are normalised first and then fed in various combinations to yield the sediment load. RMSE (root mean square error) and R² (coefficient of determination) between the observed load and the estimated load are used as evaluating criteria. For an ideal model, RMSE is zero and R² is 1. However, as the models used in this study are black box models, they don’t carry the exact representation of the factors which causes sedimentation. Hence, a model which gives the lowest RMSE and highest R² is the best model in this study. The lowest values of RMSE (based on normalised data) for sediment rating curve, feed forward back propagation, cascade forward back propagation and neural network fitting are 0.043425, 0.00679781, 0.0050089 and 0.0043727 respectively. The corresponding values of R² are 0.8258, 0.9941, 0.9968 and 0.9976. This implies that a neural network fitting model is superior to the other models used in this study. However, a drawback of neural network fitting is that it produces few negative estimates, which is not at all tolerable in the field of estimation of sediment load, and hence this model can’t be crowned as the best model among others, based on this study. A cascade forward back propagation produces results much closer to a neural network model and hence this model is the best model based on the present study.

Keywords: artificial neural network, Root mean squared error, sediment, sediment rating curve

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Authors: Olga Sukhoveeva

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Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main component of carbon biogeochemical cycle and one of the most important greenhouse gases (GHG). Agriculture, particularly arable soils, are one the largest sources of GHG emission for the atmosphere including CO2.Models may be used for estimation of GHG emission from agriculture if they can be adapted for different countries conditions. The only model used in officially at national level in United Kingdom and China for this purpose is DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition). In our research, the model DNDC is offered for estimation of GHG emission from arable soils in Russia. The aim of our research was to create the method of DNDC using for evaluation of CO2 emission in Russia based on official statistical information. The target territory was European part of Russia where many field experiments are located. At the first step of research the database on climate, soil and cropping characteristics for the target region from governmental, statistical, and literature sources were created. All-Russia Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre provides open daily data about average meteorological and climatic conditions. It must be calculated spatial average values of maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation over the region. Spatial average values of soil characteristics (soil texture, bulk density, pH, soil organic carbon content) can be determined on the base of Union state register of soil recourses of Russia. Cropping technologies are published by agricultural research institutes and departments. We offer to define cropping system parameters (annual information about crop yields, amount and types of fertilizers and manure) on the base of the Federal State Statistics Service data. Content of carbon in plant biomass may be calculated via formulas developed and published by Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation. At the second step CO2 emission from soil in this region were calculated by DNDC. Modelling data were compared with empirical and literature data and good results were obtained, modelled values were equivalent to the measured ones. It was revealed that the DNDC model may be used to evaluate and forecast the CO2 emission from arable soils in Russia based on the official statistical information. Also, it can be used for creation of the program for decreasing GHG emission from arable soils to the atmosphere. Financial Support: fundamental scientific researching theme 0148-2014-0005 No 01201352499 ‘Solution of fundamental problems of analysis and forecast of Earth climatic system condition’ for 2014-2020; fundamental research program of Presidium of RAS No 51 ‘Climate change: causes, risks, consequences, problems of adaptation and regulation’ for 2018-2020.

Keywords: arable soils, carbon dioxide emission, DNDC model, European Russia

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Authors: Devansh Desai, Rahul Nigam

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Crop water stress (W) at a given growth stage starts to set in as moisture availability (M) to roots falls below 75% of maximum. It has been found that ratio of crop evapotranspiration (ET) and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is an indicator of moisture adequacy and is strongly correlated with ‘M’ and ‘W’. The spatial variability of ET0 is generally less over an agricultural farm of 1-5 ha than ET, which depends on both surface and atmospheric conditions, while the former depends only on atmospheric conditions. Solutions from surface energy balance (SEB) and thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing are now known to estimate latent heat flux of ET. In the present study, ET and moisture adequacy index (MAI) (=ET/ET0) have been estimated over two contrasting western India agricultural farms having rice-wheat system in semi-arid climate and arid grassland system, limited by moisture availability. High-resolution multi-band TIR sensing observations at 65m from ECOSTRESS (ECOsystemSpaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station) instrument on-board International Space Station (ISS) were used in an analytical SEB model, STIC (Surface Temperature Initiated Closure) to estimate ET and MAI. The ancillary variables used in the ET modeling and MAI estimation were land surface albedo, NDVI from close-by LANDSAT data at 30m spatial resolution, ET0 product at 4km spatial resolution from INSAT 3D, meteorological forcing variables from short-range weather forecast on air temperature and relative humidity from NWP model. Farm-scale ET estimates at 65m spatial resolution were found to show low RMSE of 16.6% to 17.5% with R2 >0.8 from 18 datasets as compared to reported errors (25 – 30%) from coarser-scale ET at 1 to 8 km spatial resolution when compared to in situ measurements from eddy covariance systems. The MAI was found to show lower (<0.25) and higher (>0.5) magnitudes in the contrasting agricultural farms. The study showed the potential need of high-resolution high-repeat spaceborne multi-band TIR payloads alongwith optical payload in estimating farm-scale ET and MAI for estimating consumptive water use and water stress. A set of future high-resolution multi-band TIR sensors are planned on-board Indo-French TRISHNA, ESA’s LSTM, NASA’s SBG space-borne missions to address sustainable irrigation water management at farm-scale to improve crop water productivity. These will provide precise and fundamental variables of surface energy balance such as LST (Land Surface Temperature), surface emissivity, albedo and NDVI. A synchronization among these missions is needed in terms of observations, algorithms, product definitions, calibration-validation experiments and downstream applications to maximize the potential benefits.

Keywords: thermal remote sensing, land surface temperature, crop water stress, evapotranspiration

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Authors: Elena Collino, Dario A. Ronzio, Goffredo Decimi, Maurizio Riva

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The rapid increase of renewable energy in Italy is led by wind and solar installations. The 2017 Italian energy strategy foresees a further development of these sustainable technologies, especially solar. This fact has resulted in new opportunities, challenges, and different problems to deal with. The growth of renewables allows to meet the European requirements regarding energy and environmental policy, but these types of sources are difficult to manage because they are intermittent and non-programmable. Operationally, these characteristics can lead to instability on the voltage profile and increasing uncertainty on energy reserve scheduling. The increasing renewable production must be considered with more and more attention especially by the Transmission System Operator (TSO). The TSO, in fact, every day provides orders on energy dispatch, once the market outcome has been determined, on extended areas, defined mainly on the basis of power transmission limitations. In Italy, six market zone are defined: Northern-Italy, Central-Northern Italy, Central-Southern Italy, Southern Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily. An accurate hourly renewable power forecasting for the day-ahead on these extended areas brings an improvement both in terms of dispatching and reserve management. In this study, an operational forecasting tool of the hourly solar output for the six Italian market zones is presented, and the performance is analysed. The implementation is carried out by means of a numerical weather prediction model, coupled with a statistical post-processing in order to derive the power forecast on the basis of the meteorological projection. The weather forecast is obtained from the limited area model RAMS on the Italian territory, initialized with IFS-ECMWF boundary conditions. The post-processing calculates the solar power production with the Analog Ensemble technique (AN). This statistical approach forecasts the production using a probability distribution of the measured production registered in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar to the forecasted one. The similarity is evaluated for the components of the solar radiation: global (GHI), diffuse (DIF) and direct normal (DNI) irradiation, together with the corresponding azimuth and zenith solar angles. These are, in fact, the main factors that affect the solar production. Considering that the AN performance is strictly related to the length and quality of the historical data a training period of more than one year has been used. The training set is made by historical Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts at 12 UTC for the GHI, DIF and DNI variables over the Italian territory together with corresponding hourly measured production for each of the six zones. The AN technique makes it possible to estimate the aggregate solar production in the area, without information about the technologic characteristics of the all solar parks present in each area. Besides, this information is often only partially available. Every day, the hourly solar power forecast for the six Italian market zones is made publicly available through a website.

Keywords: analog ensemble, electricity market, PV forecast, solar energy

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Authors: Anjali Singh, Ashwani Raju, Vandana Devi, Mohmad Mohsin Atique, Satyendra Singh, Munendra Singh

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India is the biggest consumer of mercury and, consequently, a major emitter too. The increasing mercury contamination in India’s water resources has gained widespread attention and, therefore, atmospheric deposition is of critical concern. However, little emphasis was placed on the role of precipitation in the aquatic mercury cycle of the Ganga Alluvial Plain which provides drinking water to nearly 7% of the world’s human population. A majority of the precipitation here occurs primarily in 10% duration of the year in the monsoon season. To evaluate the sources and transportation of mercury, water sample analysis has been conducted from two selected sites near Lucknow, which have a strong hydraulic gradient towards the river. 31 groundwater samples from Jehta village (26°55’15’’N; 80°50’21’’E; 119 m above mean sea level) and 31 river water samples from the Behta Nadi (a tributary of the Gomati River draining into the Ganga River) were collected during the monsoon season on every alternate day between 01 July to 30 August 2019. The total mercury analysis was performed by using Flow Injection Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS)-Mercury Hybride System, and daily rainfall data was collected from the India Meteorological Department, Amausi, Lucknow. The ambient groundwater and river-water concentrations were both 2-4 ng/L as there is no known geogenic source of mercury found in the area. Before the onset of the monsoon season, the groundwater and the river-water recorded mercury concentrations two orders of magnitude higher than the ambient concentrations, indicating the regional transportation of the mercury from the non-point source into the aquatic environment. Maximum mercury concentrations in groundwater and river-water were three orders of magnitude higher than the ambient concentrations after the onset of the monsoon season characterizing the considerable mobilization and redistribution of mercury by monsoonal precipitation. About 50% of both of the water samples were reported mercury below the detection limit, which can be mostly linked to the low intensity of precipitation in August and also with the dilution factor by precipitation. The highest concentration ( > 1200 ng/L) of mercury in groundwater was reported after 6-days lag from the first precipitation peak. Two high concentration peaks (>1000 ng/L) in river-water were separately correlated with the surface flow and groundwater outflow of mercury. We attribute the elevated mercury concentration in both of the water samples before the precipitation event to mercury originating from the extensive use of agrochemicals in mango farming in the plain. However, the elevated mercury concentration during the onset of monsoon appears to increase in area wetted with atmospherically deposited mercury, which migrated down from surface water to groundwater as downslope migration is a fundamental mechanism seen in rivers of the alluvial plain. The present study underscores the significance of monsoonal precipitation in the transportation of mercury to drinking water resources of the Ganga Alluvial Plain. This study also suggests that future research must be pursued for a better understand of the human health impact of mercury contamination and for quantification of the role of Ganga Alluvial Plain in the Global Mercury Cycle.

Keywords: drinking water resources, Ganga alluvial plain, india, mercury

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Authors: Paula Costa, Ana Picado, Filomena Pinto, Justina Catarino

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Environmental impact associated with large scale shale gas development is of major concern to the public, policy makers and other stakeholders. To assess this impact on the atmosphere, it is important to monitoring ambient air quality prior to and during all shale gas operation stages. Baseline observations can provide a standard of the pre-shale gas development state of the environment. The lack of baseline concentrations was identified as an important knowledge gap to assess the impact of emissions to the air due to shale gas operations. In fact baseline monitoring of air quality are missing in several regions, where there is a strong possibility of future shale gas exploration. This makes it difficult to properly identify, quantify and characterize environmental impacts that may be associated with shale gas development. The implementation of a baseline air monitoring program is imperative to be able to assess the total emissions related with shale gas operations. In fact, any monitoring programme should be designed to provide indicative information on background levels. A baseline air monitoring program should identify and characterize targeted air pollutants, most frequently described from monitoring and emission measurements, as well as those expected from hydraulic fracturing activities, and establish ambient air conditions prior to start-up of potential emission sources from shale gas operations. This program has to be planned for at least one year accounting for ambient variations. In the literature, in addition to GHG emissions of CH4, CO2 and nitrogen oxides (NOx), fugitive emissions from shale gas production can release volatile organic compounds (VOCs), aldehydes (formaldehyde, acetaldehyde) and hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). The VOCs include a.o., benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes, hexanes, 2,2,4-trimethylpentane, styrene. The concentrations of six air pollutants (ozone, particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur oxides (SOx), and lead) whose regional ambient air levels are regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are often discussed. However, the main concern in the emissions to air associated to shale gas operations, seems to be the leakage of methane. Methane is identified as a compound of major concern due to its strong global warming potential. The identification of methane leakage from shale gas activities is complex due to the existence of several other CH4 sources (e.g. landfill, agricultural activity or gas pipeline/compressor station). An integrated monitoring study of methane emissions may be a suitable mean of distinguishing the contribution of different sources of methane to ambient levels. All data analysis needs to be carefully interpreted taking, also, into account the meteorological conditions of the site. This may require the implementation of a more intensive monitoring programme. So, it is essential the development of a low-cost sampling strategy, suitable for establishing pre-operations baseline data as well as an integrated monitoring program to assess the emissions from shale gas operation sites. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 640715.

Keywords: air emissions, baseline, green house gases, shale gas

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Authors: Mustaffa Kamal Bashar Mohd Fauzi, Puteri Shireen Jahn Kassim, Nurul Syala Abdul Latip

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It is increasingly realized that sustainability includes both a response to the climatic and cultural context of a place. To assess the cultural context, a morphological analysis of urban patterns from heritage legacies is necessary. While the climatic form is derived from an analysis of meteorological data, cultural patterns and forms must be abstracted from a typological and morphological study. This current study aims to analyzes morphological and formal elements of water-based architectural and urban design of past Islamic vernacular complexes in the hot arid regions and how a vast utilization of water was shaped and sited to act as cooling devices for an entire complex. Apart from its pleasant coolness, water can be used in an aesthetically way such as emphasizing visual axes, vividly enhancing the visual of the surrounding environment and symbolically portraying the act of purity in the design. By comparing 2 case studies based on the analysis of interactions of water features into the form, planning and morphology of 2 Islamic heritage complexes, Fatehpur Sikri (India) and Lahore Fort (Pakistan) with a focus on Shish Mahal of Lahore Fort in terms of their mass, architecture and urban planning, it is agreeable that water plays an integral role in their climatic amelioration via different methods of water conveyance system. Both sites are known for their substantial historical values and prominent for their sustainable vernacular buildings for example; the courtyard of Shish Mahal in Lahore fort are designed to provide continuous coolness by constructing various miniatures water channels that run underneath the paved courtyard. One of the most remarkable features of this system that all water is made dregs-free before it was inducted into these underneath channels. In Fatehpur Sikri, the method of conveyance seems differed from Lahore Fort as the need to supply water to the ridge where Fatehpur Sikri situated is become the major challenges. Thus, the achievement of supplying water to the palatial complexes is solved by placing inhabitable water buildings within the two supply system for raising water. The process of raising the water can be either mechanical or laborious inside the enclosed well and water rising houses. The studies analyzes and abstract the water supply forms, patterns and flows in 3-dimensional shapes through the actions of evaporative cooling and wind-induced ventilation under arid climates. Through the abstraction analytical and descriptive relational morphology of the spatial configurations, the studies can suggest the idealized spatial system that can be used in urban design and complexes which later became a methodological and abstraction tool of sustainability to suit the modern contemporary world.

Keywords: heritage site, Islamic vernacular architecture, water features, morphology, urban design

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Authors: Korbinian Schmidtner, Rudolf Sailer, Perry Bartelt, Wolfgang Fellin, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Matthias Granig

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This study focuses on the evaluation of snow avalanche simulations, based on a survey that has been carried out among avalanche experts. In the last decades, the application of avalanche simulation tools has gained recognition within the realm of hazard management. Traditionally, avalanche runout models were used to predict extreme avalanche runout and prepare avalanche maps. This has changed rather dramatically with the application of numerical models. For safety regulations such as road safety simulation tools are now being coupled with real-time meteorological measurements to predict frequent avalanche hazard. That places new demands on model accuracy and requires the simulation of physical processes that previously could be ignored. These simulation tools are based on a deterministic description of the avalanche movement allowing to predict certain quantities (e.g. pressure, velocities, flow heights, runout lengths etc.) of the avalanche flow. Because of the highly variable regimes of the flowing snow, no uniform rheological law describing the motion of an avalanche is known. Therefore, analogies to fluid dynamical laws of other materials are stated. To transfer these constitutional laws to snow flows, certain assumptions and adjustments have to be imposed. Besides these limitations, there exist high uncertainties regarding the initial and boundary conditions. Further challenges arise when implementing the underlying flow model equations into an algorithm executable by a computer. This implementation is constrained by the choice of adequate numerical methods and their computational feasibility. Hence, the model development is compelled to introduce further simplifications and the related uncertainties. In the light of these issues many questions arise on avalanche simulations, on their assets and drawbacks, on potentials for improvements as well as their application in practice. To address these questions a survey among experts in the field of avalanche science (e.g. researchers, practitioners, engineers) from various countries has been conducted. In the questionnaire, special attention is drawn on the expert’s opinion regarding the influence of certain variables on the simulation result, their uncertainty and the reliability of the results. Furthermore, it was tested to which degree a simulation result influences the decision making for a hazard assessment. A discrepancy could be found between a large uncertainty of the simulation input parameters as compared to a relatively high reliability of the results. This contradiction can be explained taking into account how the experts employ the simulations. The credibility of the simulations is the result of a rather thoroughly simulation study, where different assumptions are tested, comparing the results of different flow models along with the use of supplemental data such as chronicles, field observation, silent witnesses i.a. which are regarded as essential for the hazard assessment and for sanctioning simulation results. As the importance of avalanche simulations grows within the hazard management along with their further development studies focusing on the modeling fashion could contribute to a better understanding how knowledge of the avalanche process can be gained by running simulations.

Keywords: expert interview, hazard management, modeling, simulation, snow avalanche

Procedia PDF Downloads 296

Authors: Shaidatul Azdawiyah Abdul Talib, Wan Mohd Razi Idris, Liew Ju Neng, Tukimat Lihan, Muhammad Zamir Abdul Rasid

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Climate change has received great attention worldwide due to the impact of weather causing extreme events. Rainfall and temperature are crucial weather components associated with climate change. In Malaysia, increasing temperatures and changes in rainfall distribution patterns lead to drought and flood events involving agricultural areas, especially rice fields. Muda Agricultural Development Authority (MADA) is the largest rice growing area among the 10 granary areas in Malaysia and has faced floods and droughts in the past due to changing climate. Changes in rainfall and temperature patter affect rice yield. Therefore, trend analysis is important to identify changes in temperature and rainfall patterns as it gives an initial overview for further analysis. Six locations across the MADA area were selected based on the availability of meteorological station (MetMalaysia) data. Historical data (1991 to 2020) collected from MetMalaysia and future climate projection by multi-model ensemble of climate model from CMIP5 (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) have been analyzed using Mann-Kendall test to detect the time series trend, together with standardized precipitation anomaly, rainfall anomaly index, precipitation concentration index and temperature anomaly. Future projection data were analyzed based on 3 different periods; early century (2020 – 2046), middle century (2047 – 2073) and late-century (2074 – 2099). Results indicate that the MADA area does encounter extremely wet and dry conditions, leading to drought and flood events in the past. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis test discovered a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) in annual rainfall (z = 0.40; s = 15.12) and temperature (z = 0.61; s = 0.04) during the historical period. Similarly, for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) was found for rainfall (RCP 4.5: z = 0.15; s = 2.55; RCP 8.5: z = 0.41; s = 8.05;) and temperature (RCP 4.5: z = 0.84; s = 0.02; RCP 8.5: z = 0.94; s = 0.05). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.6 °C in early century, 2.0 °C in the middle century and 2.4 °C in the late century. In contrast, under RCP 8.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.8 °C in the early century, 3.1 °C in the middle century and 4.3 °C in late century. Drought is projected to occur in 2038 and 2043 (early century); 2052 and 2069 (middle century); and 2095, 2097 to 2099 (late century) under RCP 4.5 scenario. As for RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is projected to occur in 2021, 2031 and 2034 (early century); and 2069 (middle century). No drought is projected to occur in the late century under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Thus, this information can be used for the analysis of the impact of climate change scenarios on rice growth and yield besides other crops found in MADA area. Additionally, this study, it would be helpful for researchers and decision-makers in developing applicable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change.

Keywords: climate projection, drought, flood, rainfall, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Geraldine Molina, Malou Allagnat

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Entry through meteorological and climatic phenomena, technical knowledge and engineering sciences has long been favored by the research and local public action to analyze the urban climate, develop strategies to reduce its changes and adapt their spaces. However, in their daily practices and sensitive experiences, city dwellers are confronted with the climate and constantly deal with its fluctuations. In this way, these actors develop knowledge, skills and tactics to regulate their comfort and adapt to climatic variations. Therefore, the empirical observation and analysis of these living experiences represent major scientific and social challenges. This contribution proposes to question these relationships of the inhabitants to urban climate. It tackles the construction of inhabitants’ climatic experiences to answer a central question: how do city dwellers’ deal with the urban climate and adapt to its different variations? Indeed, the city raises the question of how populations adapt to different spatial and temporal climatic variations. Local impacts of global climate change are combined with the urban heat island phenomenon and other microclimatic effects, as well as seasonal, daytime and night-time fluctuations. To provide answers, the presentation will be focused on the results of a CNRS research project (Géraldine Molina), part of which is linked to the European project Nature For Cities (H2020, Marjorie Musy, Scientific Director). From a theoretical point of view, the contribution is based on a renewed definition of adaptation centered on the capacity of individuals and social groups, a recently opened entry from a theoretical point of view by social scientists. The research adopts a "radical interdisciplinary" approach to shed light on the links between social dynamics of climate (inhabitants’ perceptions, representations and practices) and physical processes that characterize urban climate. To do so, it relied on a methodological combination of different survey techniques borrowed from the social sciences (geography, anthropology, sociology) and linked to the work, methodologies and results of the engineering sciences. From 2016 to 2019, a survey was carried out in two districts of Lyon whose morphological, micro-climatic and social characteristics differ greatly, namely the 6th arrondissement and the Guillotière district. To explore the construction of climate experiences over the long term by putting it into perspective with the life trajectories of individuals, 70 semi-directive interviews were conducted with inhabitants. In order to also punctually survey the climate experiments as they unfold in a given time and moment, observation and measurement campaigns of physical phenomena and questionnaires have been conducted in public spaces by an interdisciplinary research team1. The contribution at the ICUC 2020 will mainly focus on the presentation of the presentation of the qualitative survey conducted thanks to the inhabitants’ interviews.

Keywords: sensitive experiences, ways of life, thermal comfort, radical interdisciplinarity

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Authors: K. Bencherif, M. Bellifa

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The expected climatic changes in North Africa are the increase of both intensity and frequencies of the summer droughts and a reduction in water availability during growing season. The exiting coppices and forest formations in the national park of Tlemcen are dominated by holm oak, zen oak and cork oak. These opened-fragmented structures don’t seem enough strong so to hope durable protection against climate change. According to the observed climatic tendency, the objective is to analyze the climatic context and its evolution taking into account the eventual behaving of the oak species during the next 20-30 years on one side and the landscaped context in relation with the most adequate sylvicultural models to choose and especially in relation with human activities on another side. The study methodology is based on Climatic synthesis and Floristic and spatial analysis. Meteorological data of the decade 1989-2009 are used to characterize the current climate. An another approach, based on dendrochronological analysis of a 120 years sample Aleppo pine stem growing in the park, is used so to analyze the climate evolution during one century. Results on the climate evolution during the 50 years obtained through climatic predictive models are exploited so to predict the climate tendency in the park. Spatially, in each forest unit of the Park, stratified sampling is achieved so to reduce the degree of heterogeneity and to easily delineate different stands using the GPS. Results from precedent study are used to analyze the anthropogenic factor considering the forecasts for the period 2025-2100, the number of warm days with a temperature over 25°C would increase from 30 to 70. The monthly mean temperatures of the maxima’s (M) and the minima’s (m) would pass respectively from 30.5°C to 33°C and from 2.3°C to 4.8°C. With an average drop of 25%, precipitations will be reduced to 411.37 mm. These new data highlight the importance of the risk fire and the water stress witch would affect the vegetation and the regeneration process. Spatial analysis highlights the forest and the agricultural dimensions of the park compared to the urban habitat and bare soils. Maps show both fragmentation state and forest surface regression (50% of total surface). At the level of the park, fires affected already all types of covers creating low structures with various densities. On the silvi cultural plan, Zen oak form in some places pure stands and this invasion must be considered as a natural tendency where Zen oak becomes the structuring specie. Climate-related changes have nothing to do with the real impact that South-Mediterranean forests are undergoing because human constraints they support. Nevertheless, hardwoods stand of oak in the national park of Tlemcen will face up to unexpected climate changes such as changing rainfall regime associated with a lengthening of the period of water stress, to heavy rainfall and/or to sudden cold snaps. Faced with these new conditions, management based on mixed uneven aged high forest method promoting the more dynamic specie could be an appropriate measure.

Keywords: global warming, mediterranean forest, oak shrub-lands, Tlemcen

Procedia PDF Downloads 367

Authors: Jing Jiang, Wenhuan XU, Lei Zhang, Shiyi Zhang, Tongli Wang

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Climate data quality significantly affects the reliability of ecological modeling. In the Asia Pacific (AP) region, low-quality climate data hinders ecological modeling. ClimateAP, a software developed in 2017, generates high-quality climate data for the AP region, benefiting researchers in forestry and agriculture. However, its adoption remains limited. This study aims to confirm the validity of biologically relevant variable data generated by ClimateAP during the normal climate period through comparison with the currently available gridded data. Climate data from 2,366 weather stations were used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of ClimateAP in comparison with the commonly used gridded data from WorldClim1.4. Univariate regressions were applied to 48 monthly biologically relevant variables, and the relationship between the observational data and the predictions made by ClimateAP and WorldClim was evaluated using Adjusted R-Squared and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Locations were categorized into mountainous and flat landforms, considering elevation, slope, ruggedness, and Topographic Position Index. Univariate regressions were then applied to all biologically relevant variables for each landform category. Random Forest (RF) models were implemented for the climatic niche modeling of Cunninghamia lanceolata. A comparative analysis of the prediction accuracies of RF models constructed with distinct climate data sources was conducted to evaluate their relative effectiveness. Biologically relevant variables were obtained from three unpublished Chinese meteorological datasets. ClimateAPv3.0 and WorldClim predictions were obtained from weather station coordinates and WorldClim1.4 rasters, respectively, for the normal climate period of 1961-1990. Occurrence data for Cunninghamia lanceolata came from integrated biodiversity databases with 3,745 unique points. ClimateAP explains a minimum of 94.74%, 97.77%, 96.89%, and 94.40% of monthly maximum, minimum, average temperature, and precipitation variances, respectively. It outperforms WorldClim in 37 biologically relevant variables with lower RMSE values. ClimateAP achieves higher R-squared values for the 12 monthly minimum temperature variables and consistently higher Adjusted R-squared values across all landforms for precipitation. ClimateAP's temperature data yields lower Adjusted R-squared values than gridded data in high-elevation, rugged, and mountainous areas but achieves higher values in mid-slope drainages, plains, open slopes, and upper slopes. Using ClimateAP improves the prediction accuracy of tree occurrence from 77.90% to 82.77%. The biologically relevant climate data produced by ClimateAP is validated based on evaluations using observations from weather stations. The use of ClimateAP leads to an improvement in data quality, especially in non-mountainous regions. The results also suggest that using biologically relevant variables generated by ClimateAP can slightly enhance climatic niche modeling for tree species, offering a better understanding of tree species adaptation and resilience compared to using gridded data.

Keywords: climate data validation, data quality, Asia pacific climate, climatic niche modeling, random forest models, tree species

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: Grace E. Santella, Shawn G. Gallaher, Joseph P. Smith

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In order to determine the importance of small-system riverine heat flux on regional landfast sea ice breakup, our study explores the annual spring freshet of the Sagavanirktok River from 2014-2019. Seasonal heat cycling ultimately serves as the driving mechanism behind the freshet; however, as an emerging area of study, the extent to which inland thermodynamics influence coastal tundra geomorphology and connected landfast sea ice has not been extensively investigated in relation to small-scale Arctic river systems. The Sagavanirktok River is a small-to-midsized river system that flows south-to-north on the Alaskan North Slope from the Brooks mountain range to the Beaufort Sea at Prudhoe Bay. Seasonal warming in the spring rapidly melts snow and ice in a northwards progression from the Brooks Range and transitional tundra highlands towards the coast and when coupled with seasonal precipitation, results in a pulsed freshet that propagates through the Sagavanirktok River. The concentrated presence of newly exposed vegetation in the transitional tundra region due to spring melting results in higher absorption of solar radiation due to a lower albedo relative to snow-covered tundra and/or landfast sea ice. This results in spring flood runoff that advances over impermeable early-season permafrost soils with elevated temperatures relative to landfast sea ice and sub-ice flow. We examine the extent to which interannual temporal variability influences the onset and magnitude of river discharge by analyzing field measurements from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) river and meteorological observation sites. Rapid influx of heat to the Arctic Ocean via riverine systems results in a noticeable decay of landfast sea ice independent of ice breakup seaward of the shear zone. Utilizing MODIS imagery from NASA’s Terra satellite, interannual variability of river discharge is visualized, allowing for optical validation that the discharge flow is interacting with landfast sea ice. Thermal erosion experienced by sediment fast ice at the arrival of warm overflow preconditions the ice regime for rapid thawing. We investigate the extent to which interannual heat flux from the Sagavanirktok River’s freshet significantly influences the onset of local landfast sea ice breakup. The early-season warming of atmospheric temperatures is evidenced by the presence of storms which introduce liquid, rather than frozen, precipitation into the system. The resultant decreased albedo of the transitional tundra supports the positive relationship between early-season precipitation events, inland thermodynamic cycling, and degradation of landfast sea ice. Early removal of landfast sea ice increases coastal erosion in these regions and has implications for coastline geomorphology which stress industrial, ecological, and humanitarian infrastructure.

Keywords: Albedo, freshet, landfast sea ice, riverine heat flux, seasonal heat cycling

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: O. D. Ohijeagbon, Oluseyi O. Ajayi, M. Ogbonnaya, Ahmeh Attabo

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This study analyzed the electricity generation potential from wind at seven sites spread across seven states of the North-Central region of Nigeria. Twenty-one years (1987 to 2007) wind speed data at a height of 10m were assessed from the Nigeria Meteorological Department, Oshodi. The data were subjected to different statistical tests and also compared with the two-parameter Weibull probability density function. The outcome shows that the monthly average wind speeds ranged between 2.2 m/s in November for Bida and 10.1 m/s in December for Jos. The yearly average ranged between 2.1m/s in 1987 for Bida and 11.8 m/s in 2002 for Jos. Also, the power density for each site was determined to range between 29.66 W/m2 for Bida and 864.96 W/m2 for Jos, Two parameters (k and c) of the Weibull distribution were found to range between 2.3 in Lokoja and 6.5 in Jos for k, while c ranged between 2.9 in Bida and 9.9m/s in Jos. These outcomes points to the fact that wind speeds at Jos, Minna, Ilorin, Makurdi and Abuja are compatible with the cut-in speeds of modern wind turbines and hence, may be economically feasible for wind-to-electricity at and above the height of 10 m. The study further assessed the potential and economic viability of standalone wind generation systems for off-grid rural communities located in each of the studied sites. A specific electric load profile was developed to suite hypothetic communities, each consisting of 200 homes, a school and a community health center. Assessment of the design that will optimally meet the daily load demand with a loss of load probability (LOLP) of 0.01 was performed, considering 2 stand-alone applications of wind and diesel. The diesel standalone system (DSS) was taken as the basis of comparison since the experimental locations have no connection to a distribution network. The HOMER® software optimizing tool was utilized to determine the optimal combination of system components that will yield the lowest life cycle cost. Sequel to the analysis for rural community utilization, a Distributed Generation (DG) analysis that considered the possibility of generating wind power in the MW range in order to take advantage of Nigeria’s tariff regime for embedded generation was carried out for each site. The DG design incorporated each community of 200 homes, freely catered for and offset from the excess electrical energy generated above the minimum requirement for sales to a nearby distribution grid. Wind DG systems were found suitable and viable in producing environmentally friendly energy in terms of life cycle cost and levelised value of producing energy at Jos ($0.14/kWh), Minna ($0.12/kWh), Ilorin ($0.09/kWh), Makurdi ($0.09/kWh), and Abuja ($0.04/kWh) at a particluar turbine hub height. These outputs reveal the value retrievable from the project after breakeven point as a function of energy consumed Based on the results, the study demonstrated that including renewable energy in the rural development plan will enhance fast upgrade of the rural communities.

Keywords: wind speed, wind power, distributed generation, cost per kilowatt-hour, clean energy, North-Central Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 485

Authors: M. Eickermann, F. Ronellenfitsch, J. Junk

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Oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) is one of the most important crops throughout Europe, but pressure due to pest insects and pathogens can reduce yield amount substantially. Therefore, the usage of pesticide applications is outstanding in this crop. In addition, climate change effects can interact with phenology of the host plant and their pests and can apply additional pressure on the yield. Next to the pollen beetle, Meligethes aeneus L., the seed-damaging pest insects, cabbage seed weevil (Ceutorhynchus obstrictus Marsham) and the brassica pod midge (Dasineura brassicae Winn.) are of main economic impact to the yield. While females of C. obstrictus are infesting oilseed rape by depositing single eggs into young pods, the females of D. brassicae are using this local damage in the pod for their own oviposition, while depositing batches of 20-30 eggs. Without a former infestation by the cabbage seed weevil, a significant yield reduction by the brassica pod midge can be denied. Based on long-term, multisided field experiments, a comprehensive data-set on pest migration to crops of B. napus has been built up in the last ten years. Five observational test sides, situated in different climatic regions in Luxembourg were controlled between February until the end of May twice a week. Pest migration was recorded by using yellow water pan-traps. Caught insects were identified in the laboratory according to species specific identification keys. By a combination of pest observations and corresponding meteorological observations, the set-up of models to predict the migration periods of the seed-damaging pests was possible. This approach is the basis for a computer-based decision support tool, to assist the farmer in identifying the appropriate time point of pesticide application. In addition, the derived algorithms of that decision support tool can be combined with climate change projections in order to assess the future potential threat caused by the seed-damaging pest species. Regional climate change effects for Luxembourg have been intensively studied in recent years. Significant changes to wetter winters and drier summers, as well as a prolongation of the vegetation period mainly caused by higher spring temperature, have also been reported. We used the COSMO-CLM model to perform a time slice experiment for Luxembourg with a spatial resolution of 1.3 km. Three ten year time slices were calculated: The reference time span (1991-2000), the near (2041-2050) and the far future (2091-2100). Our results projected a significant shift of pest migration to an earlier onset of the year. In addition, a prolongation of the possible migration period could be observed. Because D. brassiace is depending on the former oviposition activity by C. obstrictus to infest its host plant successfully, the future dependencies of both pest species will be assessed. Based on this approach the future risk potential of both seed-damaging pests is calculated and the status as pest species is characterized.

Keywords: CORDEX projections, decision support tool, Brassica napus, pests

Procedia PDF Downloads 348

Authors: Roberta Mugellesi Dow

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As the climate crisis becomes unignorable, it is imperative that new services are developed addressing not only the needs of customers but also taking into account its impact on the environment. The Telecommunication and Integrated Application (TIA) Directorate of ESA is supporting the green transition with particular attention to the sustainable mobility.“Accelerating the shift to sustainable and smart mobility” is at the core of the European Green Deal strategy, which seeks a 90% reduction in related emissions by 2050 . Transforming the way that people and goods move is essential to increasing mobility while decreasing environmental impact, and transport must be considered holistically to produce a shared vision of green intermodal mobility. The use of space technologies, integrated with terrestrial technologies, is an enabler of smarter traffic management and increased transport efficiency for automated and connected multimodal mobility. Satellite connectivity, including future 5G networks, and digital technologies such as Digital Twin, AI, Machine Learning, and cloud-based applications are key enablers of sustainable mobility.SatCom is essential to ensure that connectivity is ubiquitously available, even in remote and rural areas, or in case of a failure, by the convergence of terrestrial and SatCom connectivity networks, This is especially crucial when there are risks of network failures or cyber-attacks targeting terrestrial communication. SatCom ensures communication network robustness and resilience. The combination of terrestrial and satellite communication networks is making possible intelligent and ubiquitous V2X systems and PNT services with significantly enhanced reliability and security, hyper-fast wireless access, as well as much seamless communication coverage. SatNav is essential in providing accurate tracking and tracing capabilities for automated vehicles and in guiding them to target locations. SatNav can also enable location-based services like car sharing applications, parking assistance, and fare payment. In addition to GNSS receivers, wireless connections, radar, lidar, and other installed sensors can enable automated vehicles to monitor surroundings, to ‘talk to each other’ and with infrastructure in real-time, and to respond to changes instantaneously. SatEO can be used to provide the maps required by the traffic management, as well as evaluate the conditions on the ground, assess changes and provide key data for monitoring and forecasting air pollution and other important parameters. Earth Observation derived data are used to provide meteorological information such as wind speed and direction, humidity, and others that must be considered into models contributing to traffic management services. The paper will provide examples of services and applications that have been developed aiming to identify innovative solutions and new business models that are allowed by new digital technologies engaging space and non space ecosystem together to deliver value and providing innovative, greener solutions in the mobility sector. Examples include Connected Autonomous Vehicles, electric vehicles, green logistics, and others. For the technologies relevant are the hybrid satcom and 5G providing ubiquitous coverage, IoT integration with non space technologies, as well as navigation, PNT technology, and other space data.

Keywords: sustainability, connectivity, mobility, satellites

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Giuseppina Anna Giorgio, Angela Lorusso, Maria Ragosta, Vito Telesca

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Climate change is a major public health threat due to the effects of extreme weather events on human health and on quality of life in general. In this context, mean temperatures are increasing, in particular, extreme temperatures, with heat waves becoming more frequent, more intense, and longer lasting. In many cities, extreme heat waves have drastically increased, giving rise to so-called Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon. In an urban centre, maximum temperatures may be up to 10° C warmer, due to different local atmospheric conditions. UHI occurs in the metropolitan areas as function of the population size and density of a city. It consists of a significant difference in temperature compared to the rural/suburban areas. Increasing industrialization and urbanization have increased this phenomenon and it has recently also been detected in small cities. Weather conditions and land use are one of the key parameters in the formation of UHI. In particular surface urban heat island is directly related to temperatures, to land surface types and surface modifications. The present study concern a UHI analysis of Matera city (Italy) based on the analysis of temperature, change in land use and land cover, using Corine Land Cover maps and satellite Landsat images. Matera, located in Southern Italy, has a typical Mediterranean climate with mild winters and hot and humid summers. Moreover, Matera has been awarded the international title of the 2019 European Capital of Culture. Matera represents a significant example of vernacular architecture. The structure of the city is articulated by a vertical succession of dug layers sometimes excavated or partly excavated and partly built, according to the original shape and height of the calcarenitic slope. In this study, two meteorological stations were selected: MTA (MaTera Alsia, in industrial zone) and MTCP (MaTera Civil Protection, suburban area located in a green zone). In order to evaluate the increase in temperatures (in terms of UHI occurrences) over time, and evaluating the effect of land use on weather conditions, the climate variability of temperatures for both stations was explored. Results show that UHI phenomena is growing in Matera city, with an increase of maximum temperature values at a local scale. Subsequently, spatial analysis was conducted by Landsat satellite images. Four years was selected in the summer period (27/08/2000, 27/07/2006, 11/07/2012, 02/08/2017). In Particular, Landsat 7 ETM+ for 2000, 2006 and 2012 years; Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS for 2017. In order to estimate the LST, Mono Window Algorithm was applied. Therefore, the increase of LST values spatial scale trend has been verified, in according to results obtained at local scale. Finally, the analysis of land use maps over the years by the LST and/or the maximum temperatures measured, show that the development of industrialized area produces a corresponding increase in temperatures and consequently a growth in UHI.

Keywords: climate variability, land surface temperature, LANDSAT images, urban heat island

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: M. Balordi, G. Santucci de Magistris, F. Pini, P. Marcacci

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The increasing of extreme meteorological events represents the most important causes of damages and blackouts of the whole electric system. In particular, the icing on ground-wires and overheads lines, due to snowstorms or harsh winter conditions, very often gives rise to the collapse of cables and towers both in cold and warm climates. On the other hand, the high concentration of contaminants in the air, due to natural and/or antropic causes, is reflected in high levels of pollutants layered on glass and ceramic insulators, causing frequent and unpredictable flashover events. Overheads line and insulator failures lead to blackouts, dangerous and expensive maintenances and serious inefficiencies in the distribution service. Inducing superhydrophobic (SHP) properties to conductors, ground-wires and insulators, is one of the ways to face all these problems. Indeed, in some cases, the SHP surface can delay the ice nucleation time and decrease the ice nucleation temperature, preventing ice formation. Besides, thanks to the low surface energy, the adhesion force between ice and a superhydrophobic material are low and the ice can be easily detached from the surface. Moreover, it is well known that superhydrophobic surfaces can have self-cleaning properties: these hinder the deposition of pollution and decrease the probability of flashover phenomena. Here this study presents three different studies to impart superhydrophobicity to aluminum, zinc and glass specimens, which represent the main constituent materials of conductors, ground-wires and insulators, respectively. The route to impart the superhydrophobicity to the metallic surfaces can be summarized in a three-step process: 1) sandblasting treatment, 2) chemical-hydrothermal treatment and 3) coating deposition. The first step is required to create a micro-roughness. In the chemical-hydrothermal treatment a nano-scale metallic oxide (Al or Zn) is grown and, together with the sandblasting treatment, bring about a hierarchical micro-nano structure. By coating an alchilated or fluorinated siloxane coating, the surface energy decreases and gives rise to superhydrophobic surfaces. In order to functionalize the glass, different superhydrophobic powders, obtained by a sol-gel synthesis, were prepared. Further, the specimens were covered with a commercial primer and the powders were deposed on them. All the resulting metallic and glass surfaces showed a noticeable superhydrophobic behavior with a very high water contact angles (>150°) and a very low roll-off angles (<5°). The three optimized processes are fast, cheap and safe, and can be easily replicated on industrial scales. The anti-icing and self-cleaning properties of the surfaces were assessed with several indoor lab-tests that evidenced remarkable anti-icing properties and self-cleaning behavior with respect to the bare materials. Finally, to evaluate the anti-snow properties of the samples, some SHP specimens were exposed under real snow-fall events in the RSE outdoor test-facility located in Vinadio, western Alps: the coated samples delay the formation of the snow-sleeves and facilitate the detachment of the snow. The good results for both indoor and outdoor tests make these materials promising for further development in large scale applications.

Keywords: superhydrophobic coatings, anti-icing, self-cleaning, anti-snow, overheads lines

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Lucille Alonso, Florent Renard

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The characterizations of urban heat island (UHI) and their interactions with climate change and urban climates are the main research and public health issue, due to the increasing urbanization of the population. These solutions require a better knowledge of the UHI and micro-climate in urban areas, by combining measurements and modelling. This study is part of this topic by evaluating microclimatic conditions in dense urban areas in the Lyon Metropolitan Area (France) using a combination of data traditionally used such as topography, but also from LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) data, Landsat 8 satellite observation and Sentinel and ground measurements by bike. These bicycle-dependent weather data collections are used to build the database of the variable to be modelled, the air temperature, over Lyon’s hyper-center. This study aims to model the air temperature, measured during 6 mobile campaigns in Lyon in clear weather, using multiple linear regressions based on 33 explanatory variables. They are of various categories such as meteorological parameters from remote sensing, topographic variables, vegetation indices, the presence of water, humidity, bare soil, buildings, radiation, urban morphology or proximity and density to various land uses (water surfaces, vegetation, bare soil, etc.). The acquisition sources are multiple and come from the Landsat 8 and Sentinel satellites, LiDAR points, and cartographic products downloaded from an open data platform in Greater Lyon. Regarding the presence of low, medium, and high vegetation, the presence of buildings and ground, several buffers close to these factors were tested (5, 10, 20, 25, 50, 100, 200 and 500m). The buffers with the best linear correlations with air temperature for ground are 5m around the measurement points, for low and medium vegetation, and for building 50m and for high vegetation is 100m. The explanatory model of the dependent variable is obtained by multiple linear regression of the remaining explanatory variables (Pearson correlation matrix with a |r| < 0.7 and VIF with < 5) by integrating a stepwise sorting algorithm. Moreover, holdout cross-validation is performed, due to its ability to detect over-fitting of multiple regression, although multiple regression provides internal validation and randomization (80% training, 20% testing). Multiple linear regression explained, on average, 72% of the variance for the study days, with an average RMSE of only 0.20°C. The impact on the model of surface temperature in the estimation of air temperature is the most important variable. Other variables are recurrent such as distance to subway stations, distance to water areas, NDVI, digital elevation model, sky view factor, average vegetation density, or building density. Changing urban morphology influences the city's thermal patterns. The thermal atmosphere in dense urban areas can only be analysed on a microscale to be able to consider the local impact of trees, streets, and buildings. There is currently no network of fixed weather stations sufficiently deployed in central Lyon and most major urban areas. Therefore, it is necessary to use mobile measurements, followed by modelling to characterize the city's multiple thermal environments.

Keywords: air temperature, LIDAR, multiple linear regression, surface temperature, urban heat island

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Rosimeire Araújo Silva, Philip Martin Fearnside

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Extreme droughts and floods in the Amazon have serious consequences for natural ecosystems and the human population in the region. The frequency of these events has increased in recent years, and projections of climate change predict greater frequency and intensity of these events. Understanding the links between these extreme events and different patterns of sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is essential, both to improve the modeling of climate change and its consequences and to support efforts of adaptation in the region. The relationship between sea temperatures and events in the Amazon is much more complex than is usually assumed in climatic models. Warming and cooling of different parts of the oceans, as well as the interaction between simultaneous temperature changes in different parts of each ocean and between the two oceans, have specific consequences for the Amazon, with effects on precipitation that vary in different parts of the region. Simplistic generalities, such as the association between El Niño events and droughts in the Amazon, do not capture this complexity. We investigated the variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Tropical Pacific Ocean during the period 1950-2022, using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (FOE), spectral analysis coherence and wavelet phase. The two were identified as the main modes of variability, which explain about 53,9% and 13,3%, respectively, of the total variance of the data. The spectral and coherence analysis and wavelets phase showed that the first selected mode represents the warming in the central part of the Pacific Ocean (the “Central El Niño”), while the second mode represents warming in the eastern part of the Pacific (the “Eastern El Niño The effects of the 1982-1983 and 1976-1977 El Niño events in the Amazon, although both events were characterized by an increase in sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, the impact on rainfall in the Amazon was distinct. In the rainy season, from December to March, the sub-basins of the Japurá, Jutaí, Jatapu, Tapajós, Trombetas and Xingu rivers were the regions that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central (1982-1983), while the sub-basins of the Javari, Purus, Negro and Madeira rivers had the most pronounced reductions in the year of Eastern El Niño (1976-1977). In the transition to the dry season, in April, the greatest reductions were associated with the Eastern El Niño year for the majority of the study region, with the exception only of the sub-basins of the Madeira, Trombetas and Xingu rivers, which had their associated reductions to Central El Niño. In the dry season from July to September, the sub-basins of the Japurá Jutaí Jatapu Javari Trombetas and Madeira rivers were the rivers that showed the greatest reductions in rainfall associated with El Niño Central, while the sub-basins of the Tapajós Purus Negro and Xingu rivers had the most pronounced reductions. In the Eastern El Niño year this season. In this way, it is possible to conclude that the Central (Eastern) El Niño controlled the reductions in soil moisture in the dry (rainy) season for all sub-basins shown in this study. Extreme drought events associated with these meteorological phenomena can lead to a significant increase in the occurrence of forest fires. These fires have a devastating impact on Amazonian vegetation, resulting in the irreparable loss of biodiversity and the release of large amounts of carbon stored in the forest, contributing to the increase in the greenhouse effect and global climate change.

Keywords: sea surface temperature, variability, climate, Amazon

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Authors: Meiyan Gao, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang, Qiuhua Liang

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Under the background of global climate change and rapid development of modern urbanization, the frequency of climate disasters such as extreme precipitation in cities around the world is gradually increasing. In this paper, Hi-PIMS model is used to simulate the "720" flood in Zhengzhou, and the continuous stages of flood resilience are determined with the urban flood stages are divided. The flood resilience curve under the influence of multiple factors were determined and the urban flood toughness was evaluated by combining the results of resilience curves. The flood resilience of urban unit grid was evaluated based on economy, population, road network, hospital distribution and land use type. Firstly, the rainfall data of meteorological stations near Zhengzhou and the remote sensing rainfall data from July 17 to 22, 2021 were collected. The Kriging interpolation method was used to expand the rainfall data of Zhengzhou. According to the rainfall data, the flood process generated by four rainfall events in Zhengzhou was reproduced. Based on the results of the inundation range and inundation depth in different areas, the flood process was divided into four stages: absorption, resistance, overload and recovery based on the once in 50 years rainfall standard. At the same time, based on the levels of slope, GDP, population, hospital affected area, land use type, road network density and other aspects, the resilience curve was applied to evaluate the urban flood resilience of different regional units, and the difference of flood process of different precipitation in "720" rainstorm in Zhengzhou was analyzed. Faced with more than 1,000 years of rainstorm, most areas are quickly entering the stage of overload. The influence levels of factors in different areas are different, some areas with ramps or higher terrain have better resilience, and restore normal social order faster, that is, the recovery stage needs shorter time. Some low-lying areas or special terrain, such as tunnels, will enter the overload stage faster in the case of heavy rainfall. As a result, high levels of flood protection, water level warning systems and faster emergency response are needed in areas with low resilience and high risk. The building density of built-up area, population of densely populated area and road network density all have a certain negative impact on urban flood resistance, and the positive impact of slope on flood resilience is also very obvious. While hospitals can have positive effects on medical treatment, they also have negative effects such as population density and asset density when they encounter floods. The result of a separate comparison of the unit grid of hospitals shows that the resilience of hospitals in the distribution range is low when they encounter floods. Therefore, in addition to improving the flood resistance capacity of cities, through reasonable planning can also increase the flood response capacity of cities. Changes in these influencing factors can further improve urban flood resilience, such as raise design standards and the temporary water storage area when floods occur, train the response speed of emergency personnel and adjust emergency support equipment.

Keywords: urban flood resilience, resilience assessment, hydrodynamic model, resilience curve

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Authors: Lionel Trovalet, Lisa Liu, Dimitri Bigot, Nadia Hammami, Jean-Pierre Habas, Bruno Malet-Damour

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The MCP-iBAT1 project is carried out to study the behavior of Phase Change Materials (PCM) integrated in building envelopes in a tropical environment. Through the phase transitions (melting and freezing) of the material, thermal energy can be absorbed or released. This process enables the regulation of indoor temperatures and the improvement of thermal comfort for the occupants. Most of the commercially available PCMs are more suitable to temperate climates than to tropical climates. The case of Reunion Island is noteworthy as there are multiple micro-climates. This leads to our key question: developing one or multiple bio-based PCMs that cover the thermal needs of the different locations of the island. The present paper focuses on the numerical approach to select the PCM properties relevant to tropical areas. Numerical simulations have been carried out with two softwares: EnergyPlusTM and Isolab. The latter has been developed in the laboratory, with the implicit Finite Difference Method, in order to evaluate different physical models. Both are Thermal Dynamic Simulation (TDS) softwares that predict the building’s thermal behavior with one-dimensional heat transfers. The parameters used in this study are the construction’s characteristics (dimensions and materials) and the environment’s description (meteorological data and building surroundings). The building is modeled in accordance with the experimental setup. It is divided into two rooms, cells A and B, with same dimensions. Cell A is the reference, while in cell B, a layer of commercial PCM (Thermo Confort of MCI Technologies) has been applied to the inner surface of the North wall. Sensors are installed in each room to retrieve temperatures, heat flows, and humidity rates. The collected data are used for the comparison with the numerical results. Our strategy is to implement two similar buildings at different altitudes (Saint-Pierre: 70m and Le Tampon: 520m) to measure different temperature ranges. Therefore, we are able to collect data for various seasons during a condensed time period. The following methodology is used to validate the numerical models: calibration of the thermal and PCM models in EnergyPlusTM and Isolab based on experimental measures, then numerical testing with a sensitivity analysis of the parameters to reach the targeted indoor temperatures. The calibration relies on the past ten months’ measures (from September 2020 to June 2021), with a focus on one-week study on November (beginning of summer) when the effect of PCM on inner surface temperatures is more visible. A first simulation with the PCM model of EnergyPlus gave results approaching the measurements with a mean error of 5%. The studied property in this paper is the melting temperature of the PCM. By determining the representative temperature of winter, summer and inter-seasons with past annual’s weather data, it is possible to build a numerical model of multi-layered PCM. Hence, the combined properties of the materials will provide an optimal scenario for the application on PCM in tropical areas. Future works will focus on the development of bio-based PCMs with the selected properties followed by experimental and numerical validation of the materials. 1Materiaux ´ a Changement de Phase, une innovation pour le B ` ati Tropical

Keywords: energyplus, multi-layer of PCM, phase changing materials, tropical area

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Salvatore Luongo, Carlo Luongo

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This paper discusses the implementation solutions to reduce the computational load for the Traffic Situational Awareness with Alerts (TSAA) application, based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) technology. In 2008, there were 23 total mid-air collisions involving general aviation fixed-wing aircraft, 6 of which were fatal leading to 21 fatalities. These collisions occurred during visual meteorological conditions, indicating the limitations of the see-and-avoid concept for mid-air collision avoidance as defined in the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA). The commercial aviation aircraft are already equipped with collision avoidance system called TCAS, which is based on classic transponder technology. This system dramatically reduced the number of mid-air collisions involving air transport aircraft. In general aviation, the same reduction in mid-air collisions has not occurred, so this reduction is the main objective of the TSAA application. The major difference between the original conflict detection application and the TSAA application is that the conflict detection is focused on preventing loss of separation in en-route environments. Instead TSAA is devoted to reducing the probability of mid-air collision in all phases of flight. The TSAA application increases the flight crew traffic situation awareness providing alerts of traffic that are detected in conflict with ownship in support of the see-and-avoid responsibility. The relevant effort has been spent in the design process and the code generation in order to maximize the efficiency and performances in terms of computational load and memory consumption reduction. The TSAA architecture is divided into two high-level systems: the “Threats database” and the “Conflict detector”. The first one receives the traffic data from ADS-B device and provides the memorization of the target’s data history. Conflict detector module estimates ownship and targets trajectories in order to perform the detection of possible future loss of separation between ownship and each target. Finally, the alerts are verified by additional conflict verification logic, in order to prevent possible undesirable behaviors of the alert flag. In order to reduce the computational load, a pre-check evaluation module is used. This pre-check is only a computational optimization, so the performances of the conflict detector system are not modified in terms of number of alerts detected. The pre-check module uses analytical trajectories propagation for both target and ownship. This allows major accuracy and avoids the step-by-step propagation, which requests major computational load. Furthermore, the pre-check permits to exclude the target that is certainly not a threat, using an analytical and efficient geometrical approach, in order to decrease the computational load for the following modules. This software improvement is not suggested by FAA documents, and so it is the main innovation of this work. The efficiency and efficacy of this enhancement are verified using fast-time and real-time simulations and by the execution on a real device in several FAA scenarios. The final implementation also permits the FAA software certification in compliance with DO-178B standard. The computational load reduction allows the installation of TSAA application also on devices with multiple applications and/or low capacity in terms of available memory and computational capabilities

Keywords: traffic situation awareness, general aviation, aircraft conflict detection, computational load reduction, implementation solutions, software certification

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: T. Schilirò, S. Bonetta, S. Bonetta, E. Ceretti, D. Feretti, I. Zerbini, V. Romanazzi, S. Levorato, T. Salvatori, S. Vannini, M. Verani, C. Pignata, F. Bagordo, G. Gilli, S. Bonizzoni, A. Bonetti, E. Carraro, U. Gelatti

Abstract:

Air pollution is one of the most important worldwide health concern. In the last years, in both the US and Europe, new directives and regulations supporting more restrictive pollution limits were published. However, the early effects of air pollution occur, especially for the urban population. Several epidemiological and toxicological studies have documented the remarkable effect of particulate matter (PM) in increasing morbidity and mortality for cardiovascular disease, lung cancer and natural cause mortality. The finest fractions of PM (PM with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µm and less) play a major role in causing chronic diseases. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) has recently classified air pollution and fine PM as carcinogenic to human (1 Group). The structure and composition of PM influence the biological properties of particles. The chemical composition varies with season and region of sampling, photochemical-meteorological conditions and sources of emissions. The aim of the MAPEC (Monitoring Air Pollution Effects on Children for supporting public health policy) study is to evaluate the associations between air pollution and biomarkers of early biological effects in oral mucosa cells of 6-8 year old children recruited from first grade schools. The study was performed in five Italian towns (Brescia, Torino, Lecce, Perugia and Pisa) characterized by different levels of airborne PM (PM10 annual average from 44 µg/m3 measured in Torino to 20 µg/m3 measured in Lecce). Two to five schools for each town were chosen to evaluate the variability of pollution within the same town. Child exposure to urban air pollution was evaluated by collecting ultrafine PM (PM0.5) in the school area, on the same day of biological sampling. PM samples were collected for 72h using a high-volume gravimetric air sampler and glass fiber filters in two different seasons (winter and spring). Gravimetric analysis of the collected filters was performed; PM0.5 organic extracts were chemically analyzed (PAH, Nitro-PAH) and tested on A549 by the Comet assay and Micronucleus test and on Salmonella strains (TA100, TA98, TA98NR and YG1021) by Ames test. Results showed that PM0.5 represents a high variable PM10 percentage (range 19.6-63%). PM10 concentration were generally lower than 50µg/m3 (EU daily limit). All PM0.5 extracts showed a mutagenic effect with TA98 strain (net revertant/m3 range 0.3-1.5) and suggested the presence of indirect mutagens, while lower effect was observed with TA100 strain. The results with the TA98NR and YG1021 strains showed the presence of nitroaromatic compounds as confirmed by the chemical analysis. No genotoxic or oxidative effect of PM0.5 extracts was observed using the comet assay (with/without Fpg enzyme) and micronucleus test except for some sporadic samples. The low biological effect observed could be related to the low level of air pollution observed in this winter sampling associated to a high atmospheric instability. For a greater understanding of the relationship between PM size, composition and biological effects the results obtained in this study suggest to investigate the biological effect of the other PM fractions and in particular of the PM0.5-1 fraction.

Keywords: airborne PM, ames test, comet assay, micronucleus test

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: Krishna Raj Regmi

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A “Climate change adaptation and disaster risk management for sustainable agriculture” project was implemented in Nepal, a Himalayan country during 2008 to 2013 sponsored jointly by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Nepal. The paper is based on the results and findings of this joint pilot project. The climate change events such as increased intensity of erratic rains in short spells, trend of prolonged drought, gradual rise in temperature in the higher elevations and occurrence of cold and hot waves in Terai (lower plains) has led to flash floods, massive erosion in the hills particularly in Churia range and drying of water sources. These recurring natural and climate-induced disasters are causing heavy damages through sedimentation and inundation of agricultural lands, crops, livestock, infrastructures and rural settlements in the downstream plains and thus reducing agriculture productivity and food security in the country. About 65% of the cultivated land in Nepal is rainfed with drought-prone characteristics and stabilization of agricultural production and productivity in these tracts will be possible through adoption of rainfed and drought-tolerant technologies as well as efficient soil-water management by the local communities. The adaptation and mitigation technologies and options identified by the project for soil erosion, flash floods and landslide control are on-farm watershed management, sloping land agriculture technologies (SALT), agro-forestry practices, agri-silvi-pastoral management, hedge-row contour planting, bio-engineering along slopes and river banks, plantation of multi-purpose trees and management of degraded waste land including sandy river-bed flood plains. The stress tolerant technologies with respect to drought, floods and temperature stress for efficient utilization of nutrient, soil, water and other resources for increased productivity are adoption of stress tolerant crop varieties and breeds of animals, indigenous proven technologies, mixed and inter-cropping systems, system of rice/wheat intensification (SRI), direct rice seeding, double transplanting of rice, off-season vegetable production and regular management of nurseries, orchards and animal sheds. The alternate energy use options and resource conservation practices for use by local communities are installation of bio-gas plants and clean stoves (Chulla range) for mitigation of green house gas (GHG) emissions, use of organic manures and bio-pesticides, jatropha cultivation, green manuring in rice fields and minimum/zero tillage practices for marshy lands. The efficient water management practices for increasing productivity of crops and livestock are use of micro-irrigation practices, construction of water conservation and water harvesting ponds, use of overhead water tanks and Thai jars for rain water harvesting and rehabilitation of on-farm irrigation systems. Initiation of some works on community-based early warning system, strengthening of met stations and disaster database management has made genuine efforts in providing disaster-tailored early warning, meteorological and insurance services to the local communities. Contingent planning is recommended to develop coping strategies and capacities of local communities to adopt necessary changes in the cropping patterns and practices in relation to adverse climatic and disaster risk conditions. At the end, adoption of awareness raising and capacity development activities (technical and institutional) and networking on climate-induced disaster and risks through training, visits and knowledge sharing workshops, dissemination of technical know-how and technologies, conduct of farmers' field schools, development of extension materials and their displays are being promoted. However, there is still need of strong coordination and linkage between agriculture, environment, forestry, meteorology, irrigation, climate-induced pro-active disaster preparedness and research at the ministry, department and district level for up-scaling, implementation and institutionalization of climate change and disaster risk management activities and adaptation mitigation options in agriculture for sustainable livelihoods of the communities.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, disaster risk management, soil-water management practices, sustainable agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 477