Search results for: interest rate and trade openness

Authors: Syed Toqueer Akhter, Muhammad Muzaffar Abbas

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Conflicts in Pakistan are a result of a configuration of factors, which are directly related to the system of the state, the unstable regional setting, and the geo-strategic location of Pakistan at large. This paper examines the impact of regional conflict onto the socio-political sustainability of Pakistan. The magnitude of the spillover from a conflicted region is similar in size of the equivalent increase in domestic conflict. Pakistan has gone at war three times with India; the border with India is named as the tensest borderlines of the world. Disagreements with India and lack of dispute settlement mechanisms have negatively effected the peace in the region, influx of illegal weapons and refugees from Afghanistan as an outcome of 9/11 incidence, have exasperated the criticality of levels of internal conflict in Pakistan. Our empirical findings are based on the data collected on regional conflict levels, regional trade, global trade, comparative defence capabilities of the region in contrast to Pakistan and the government regime (Autocratic, Democratic) over 1972-2007. It has been proposed in this paper that the intent of domestic conflict is associated with the conflict in the region, regional trade, global trade and the government regime of Pakistan. The estimated model (OLS) implies that domestic conflict is effected positively and significantly with long term impact of conflict in the region. Also, if defence capabilities of the region are better than that of Pakistan it effects domestic conflict positively and significantly. Conflict in neighbouring countries are found as a source of domestic conflict in Pakistan, whereas the regional trade as well as type of government regimes in Pakistan lowered the intensity of domestic conflict significantly, while globalized trade imply risk of domestic conflict to be reduced but not significantly.

Keywords: conflict, regional trade, socio-politcal instability

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Authors: Mohsen Qasemi

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In the international economic order multilateral trading system which established by General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1947 (GATT) was dominant until about two decades ago. Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have changed this order and become an important phenomenon. One of the main objectives of the World Trade Organization (WTO) as a central institution of multilateral trading system is raising standards of living. There are many scholars who suggest that WTO should take steps to protect human rights in its activities. Although it has always been opposing views who declare that since WTO has no explicit rule for human rights, it has no human rights related obligations. At the time that the WTO was established, member states began to join RTAs and since then, the escalating growth of these agreements and their effects on multilateral trading system has been controversial. There are some aspects of RTAs that have received too little attention from scholars. It is important to take a different view and evaluate the RTAs based on non-commercial aspects. The present paper seeks to answer this question: which system could be more useful in protecting human rights, RTAs or WTO?

Keywords: WTO, RTAs, human rights, multilateral trading system, non discrimination

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Authors: B. Seetanah, H. Neeliah

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This paper investigates the relationship among energy, emissions and economic growth in Mauritius in the presence of trade activities, with capital and labour as other control variables. Using annual data from 1960 to 2011, it is found that the variables are non-stationary and cointegrated. The relationship among the various variables are thus examined in a dynamic VECM framework. Our empirical results comply with the growth hypothesis. Output elasticities of 0.17, 0.25 and 0.43 show that increases in energy consumption cause increases in economic growth, capital accumulation and trade in the long run. We also found that CO2 negatively affects output, but has no significant effect on trade. Findings for the long-run generally tend to tally with those in the short-run. Interestingly we found that energy consumption has a significant impact on CO2 emissions. Our results tend to suggest that implementing energy conservation strategies to mitigate the negative impact of CO2 emissions can dent economic growth, and that promoting cleaner energy production could be a better alternative for Mauritius.

Keywords: energy, emissions, economic growth, export, VECM

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Authors: Sudeepti Dayal, Neelesh Gupta

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In terms of transmission, bigger the size of any image, longer the time the channel takes for transmission. It is understood that the bandwidth of the channel is fixed. Therefore, if the size of an image is reduced, a larger number of data or images can be transmitted over the channel. Compression is the technique used to reduce the size of an image. In terms of storage, compression reduces the file size which it occupies on the disk. Any image is based on two parameters, region of interest and non-region of interest. There are several algorithms of compression that compress the data more economically. In this paper we have reviewed region of interest and non-region of interest based compression techniques and the algorithms which compress the image most efficiently.

Keywords: compression ratio, region of interest, DCT, DWT

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Authors: Katherine Day

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Non-fiction genres (autobiographies and biographies, true stories and criticism, investigative journalism and narrative journalism) have enjoyed increasing sales in the English-language publishing territories over the last decade, but writing the tell-all or exposé is not without consequences: defamation laws cast a “chilling effect” by regarding reputation above publications with a public interest element. This is evident in the many publications that have been amended or pulped after publication. These communications, alterations and negotiations indicate that the threat of legal action forms part of the editorial decision-making around such publications, the presence of which could be attributed to strict defamation laws. In the UK and Australia, particularly, defamation law has proved notoriously biased in favour of plaintiffs. The legal obstacles have prompted law reform by way of section 4 of the UK Defamation Act, which allows for editorial assessment into whether the statement/s made are in the public interest; as of July 1st 2021, the NSW Government in Australia also implemented reforms to help steer the law towards more flexibility in the digital age – the most interesting of these developments for commercial publishing being the new ‘public interest’ defence (s 29A), which is modelled on the UK’s section 4 and which most states in Australia have now integrated into their respective state laws (Queensland, new South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, with the remaining states committing at a later date). This paper will outline and discuss the preliminary findings of a 1-year project that aims to explore how potentially litigious content is managed in unpublished non-fiction manuscripts in two countries identified as having strict defamation laws: Australia and the UK. Significantly, it expects to indicate the burden of current defamation laws on publishing practice and publishing outputs in these countries by interrogating in-house editorial processes and the likelihood of editorial management in a ‘post negotiation space’, where the activities and communication between authors and editors are reconstructed, if necessary, to correct the author/publisher power balance and affirm the business relationship. In doing so, the project asks: has the threat, explicit or implicit, of defamation action produced a significant chilling effect in trade non-fiction publishing in the UK and Australia?

Keywords: defamation, publishing, socio-legal, authorship, editing, literature

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Authors: Tianyu Wang, Nikita Karandikar

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The uncertainty around cost, safety, and feasibility of the decarbonized shipping fuels has made it increasingly complex for the shipping companies to set pricing strategies and forecast their freight revenues going forward. The increase in the green fuel surcharges will ultimately influence the automobile’s consumer prices. The auto shipping demand (ton-miles) has been gradually shifting from long-haul to short-sea trade over the past years following the relocation of the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) manufacturing to regions such as South America and Southeast Asia. The objective of this paper is twofold: 1) to investigate the car-carriers freight revenue development over the years when the trade pattern is gradually shifting towards short-sea exports 2) to empirically identify the quantitative impact of such trade pattern shifting to mainly freight rate, but also vessel size, fleet size as well as Green House Gas (GHG) emission in Roll on-Roll Off (Ro-Ro) shipping. In this paper, a model of analyzing and forecasting ton-miles and freight revenues for the trade routes of AS-NA (Asia to North America), EU-NA (Europe to North America), and SA-NA (South America to North America) is established by deploying Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and the financial results of a selected car carrier company. More specifically, Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics (WALWIL), the Norwegian Ro-Ro carrier listed on Oslo Stock Exchange, is selected as the case study company in this paper. AIS-based ton-mile datasets of WALWIL vessels that are sailing into North America region from three different origins (Asia, Europe, and South America), together with WALWIL’s quarterly freight revenues as reported in trade segments, will be investigated and compared for the past five years (2018-2022). Furthermore, ordinary‐least‐square (OLS) regression is utilized to construct the ton-mile demand and freight revenue forecasting. The determinants of trade pattern shifting, such as import tariffs following the China-US trade war and fuel prices following the 0.1% Emission Control Areas (ECA) zone requirement after IMO2020 will be set as key variable inputs to the machine learning model. The model will be tested on another newly listed Norwegian Car Carrier, Hoegh Autoliner, to forecast its 2022 financial results and to validate the accuracy based on its actual results. GHG emissions on the three routes will be compared and discussed based on a constant emission per mile assumption and voyage distances. Our findings will provide important insights about 1) the trade-off evaluation between revenue reduction and energy saving with the new ton-mile pattern and 2) how the trade flow shifting would influence the future need for the vessel and fleet size.

Keywords: AIS, automobile exports, maritime big data, trade flows

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Authors: Olga Kokoulina

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Today, algorithms are assuming a leading role in various areas of decision-making. Prompted by a promise to provide increased economic efficiency and fuel solutions for pressing societal challenges, algorithmic decision-making is often celebrated as an impartial and constructive substitute for human adjudication. But in the face of this implied objectivity and efficiency, the application of algorithms is also marred with mounting concerns about embedded biases, discrimination, and exclusion. In Europe, vigorous debates on risks and adverse implications of algorithmic decision-making largely revolve around the potential of data protection laws to tackle some of the related issues. For example, one of the often-cited venues to mitigate the impact of potentially unfair decision-making practice is a so-called 'right to explanation'. In essence, the overall right is derived from the provisions of the General Data Protection Regulation (‘GDPR’) ensuring the right of data subjects to access and mandating the obligation of data controllers to provide the relevant information about the existence of automated decision-making and meaningful information about the logic involved. Taking corresponding rights and obligations in the context of the specific provision on automated decision-making in the GDPR, the debates mainly focus on efficacy and the exact scope of the 'right to explanation'. In essence, the underlying logic of the argued remedy lies in a transparency imperative. Allowing data subjects to acquire as much knowledge as possible about the decision-making process means empowering individuals to take control of their data and take action. In other words, forewarned is forearmed. The related discussions and debates are ongoing, comprehensive, and, often, heated. However, they are also frequently misguided and isolated: embracing the data protection law as ultimate and sole lenses are often not sufficient. Mandating the disclosure of technical specifications of employed algorithms in the name of transparency for and empowerment of data subjects potentially encroach on the interests and rights of IPR holders, i.e., business entities behind the algorithms. The study aims at pushing the boundaries of the transparency debate beyond the data protection regime. By systematically analysing legal requirements and current judicial practice, it assesses the limits of the transparency requirement and right to access posed by intellectual property law, namely by copyrights and trade secrets. It is asserted that trade secrets, in particular, present an often-insurmountable obstacle for realising the potential of the transparency requirement. In reaching that conclusion, the study explores the limits of protection afforded by the European Trade Secrets Directive and contrasts them with the scope of respective rights and obligations related to data access and portability enshrined in the GDPR. As shown, the far-reaching scope of the protection under trade secrecy is evidenced both through the assessment of its subject matter as well as through the exceptions from such protection. As a way forward, the study scrutinises several possible legislative solutions, such as flexible interpretation of the public interest exception in trade secrets as well as the introduction of the strict liability regime in case of non-transparent decision-making.

Keywords: algorithms, public interest, trade secrets, transparency

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Authors: Caroline S. Dutra, Tatiana C. Squeff

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It is well known that the history between South Korea and Japan influences their international relations; thus, also encompassing their economic relations. In this sense, it is impossible to analyze the latter without understanding the development of the former, which is known for episodes of hostility, like on Japanese colonization, but also had moments of cultural and trade interexchange. Indeed, since 1965, with the establishment of diplomatic relations between both countries, their trade relations have improved, especially after both nations have signed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Thereafter, with the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, another chapter of their diplomatic and economic relations have been inaugurated. Hence, bearing in mind this history between both nations, this research intends to examine their relations through the analysis of the WTO panels they have engaged in between each other, which are, in chronological order, “DS323: Japan – Import Quotas on Dried Laver and Seasoned Laver”, “DS336: Japan - Countervailing Duties on Dynamic Random Access Memories from Korea”, “DS495: Korea - Import Band, and Testing and Certification Requirements for Radionuclides”, “DS553: Korea - Sunset Review of Anti-Dumping Duties on Stainless Steel Bars” and “DS571: Korea - Measures Affecting Trade in Commercial Vessels”. The objective of this case analysis is to point out what are the areas that are more conflictual between Japan and South Korea in regard to their economic relations so that it is possible to assert on their future (economic) relations and other possible outcomes. And in order to do so, bibliographic and documental research will be made, particularly those involving the WTO and the nations under consideration. Regarding the methods used, it is important to highlight that this is applied research in the field of international economic relations and international law, which follows a hypothetic-deductive model.

Keywords: international economic relations, Japan, South Korea, World Trade Organization

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Authors: Manamba Epaphra

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This paper analyzes the causal effect between domestic private investment, public investment, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Tanzania during the 1970-2014 period. The modified neo-classical growth model that includes control variables such as trade liberalization, life expectancy and macroeconomic stability proxied by inflation is used to estimate the impact of investment on economic growth. Also, the economic growth models based on Phetsavong and Ichihashi (2012), and Le and Suruga (2005) are used to estimate the crowding out effect of public investment on private domestic investment on one hand and foreign direct investment on the other hand. A correlation test is applied to check the correlation among independent variables, and the results show that there is very low correlation suggesting that multicollinearity is not a serious problem. Moreover, the diagnostic tests including RESET regression errors specification test, Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test, Jacque-Bera-normality test and white heteroskedasticity test reveal that the model has no signs of misspecification and that, the residuals are serially uncorrelated, normally distributed and homoskedastic. Generally, the empirical results show that the domestic private investment plays an important role in economic growth in Tanzania. FDI also tends to affect growth positively, while control variables such as high population growth and inflation appear to harm economic growth. Results also reveal that control variables such as trade openness and life expectancy improvement tend to increase real GDP growth. Moreover, a revealed negative, albeit weak, association between public and private investment suggests that the positive effect of domestic private investment on economic growth reduces when public investment-to-GDP ratio exceeds 8-10 percent. Thus, there is a great need for promoting domestic saving so as to encourage domestic investment for economic growth.

Keywords: FDI, public investment, domestic private investment, crowding out effect, economic growth

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Authors: Saeed Nayeri

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This paper explores the feasibility of openness within firms' boundaries during process innovation and identifies the key determinants of open process innovation (OPI). Through a systematic review of 78 research studies published between 2001 and 2024, the author synthesized diverse findings into a comprehensive framework detailing OPI attributes and pillars. The identified OPI attributes encompass themes such as technology intensity, significance, magnitude, and locus of exploitation, while the OPI pillars include mechanisms, partners, achievements, and antecedents. Additionally, the author critically analysed gaps in the literature, proposing future research directions that advocate for a broader methodological approach, increased emphasis on theory development and testing, and more cross-national and cross-sectoral studies to advance understanding in this field.

Keywords: open innovation, process innovation, OPI attributes, systematic literature review, organizational openness

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Authors: Temesgen Yaekob Ergano, Sure Pulla Rao

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The study on financial development and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa utilizes System GMM analysis to investigate the relationship between financial development indicators and economic performance in the region. The research findings reveal significant impacts of various financial indicators on economic growth, such as the positive influence of bank liquid reserves to bank assets ratio (R/A), trade openness, and the broad money to total reserves ratio (M/R) on the economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, the study highlights the negative impact of domestic credit provided to the private sector by banks (D_bank) on economic growth, emphasizing the importance of prudent credit allocation to avoid over-indebtedness and financial crises. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to foster sustainable economic growth in the region by leveraging financial development effectively.

Keywords: financial development, economic growth, Sub-Saharan Africa, system GMM analysis, financial indicators.

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Authors: Aime Philombe Zapji Ymele

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Servicing public debt is a significant budgetary burden. In the sense that the payment of interest charges is a liability on the balance sheet of the public budget and affects fiscal policy. Interest charges can sometimes become a burden if they crowd out private activities. In order to analyse and understand the determinants of the debt burden and its impact on the sustainability of public finances, the present work focuses on OECD countries. It is noted from the literature that the factors that determine interest charges are macroeconomic (inflation, GDP growth, and interest rates) and public finances (primary balance and public debt). After analysing a panel of 33 OECD countries and using ordinary least squares (OLS), we find that public debt, inflation, and long-term interest rates are positively correlated with interest charges. An increase in any of these variables leads to an increase in debt charges. On the other hand, a growth in GDP is negatively associated with interest charges. Indeed, an increase in GDP generates enough revenue to meet the repayment of debt charges. According to the empirical analysis, we can say that, despite the large and growing debt-to-GDP ratio of major OECD countries, interest charges are not a threat to the sustainability of public finances. However, it is important for these countries to reduce the ratio of public debt to GDP because, in the face of the many challenges (health, aging population, etc.) that are looming on the horizon, an increase in interest rates could bring with it considerable burdens that would threaten the budgetary balance of these states.

Keywords: interest charges, sustainability, public debt, interest rates

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Authors: Luqman Afolabi

Abstract:

This paper measures the impacts of trade and institutions on environmental quality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To examine the direction and the magnitude of the effects, the study employs the pooled mean group (PMG) estimation technique on the panel data obtained from the World Bank’s World Development and Governance Indicators, between 1996 and 2018. The empirical estimates validate the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis (EKC) for the region, even though there have been inconclusive results on the environment – growth nexus. Similarly, a positive coefficient is obtained on the impact of trade on the environment, while the impact of the institutional indicators produce mixed results. A significant policy implication is that the governments of the SSA countries pursue policies that tend to increase economic growth, so that pollutants may be reduced. Such policies may include the provision of incentives for sustainable growth-driven industries in the region. In addition, the governance infrastructures should be improved in such a way that appropriate penalties are imposed on the pollutants, while advanced technologies that have the potentials to reduce environmental degradation should be encouraged. Finally, it is imperative from these findings that the governments of the region should promote their trade relations and the competitiveness of their local industries in order to keep pace with the global markets.

Keywords: environmental quality, institutional quality sustainable development goals, trade

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Authors: Fajana Sola Isaac

Abstract:

In the last two decades, we have witnessed an increased interest in exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in developing economies and emerging markets. This is perhaps due to the acknowledged significance of the pattern of exchange rate pass-through as a key instrument in monetary policy design, principally in retort to a shock in exchange rate in literature. This paper analyzed Exchange Rate Pass-Through by A Model of Oil Prices and Asymmetric Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Selected African Countries. The study adopted A Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach using yearly data on Algeria, Burundi, Nigeria and South Africa from 1986 to 2022. The paper found asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through in net oil-importing and net oil-exporting countries in the short run during the period under review. An ERPT exhibited a complete pass-through in the short run in the case of net oil-importing countries but an incomplete pass-through in the case of the net oil-exporting countries that were examined. An extended result revealed a significant impact of oil price shock on exchange rate pass-through to domestic price in the long run only for net oil importing countries. The Wald restriction test also confirms the evidence of asymmetric with the role of oil price acting as an accelerator to exchange rate pass-through to domestic price in the countries examined. The study found the outcome to be very useful for gaining expansive knowledge on the external shock impact on ERPT and could be of critical value for national monetary policy decisions on inflation targeting, especially for countries examined and other developing net oil importers and exporters.

Keywords: pass through, exchange rate, ARDL, monetary policy

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Authors: Noah R. Fram

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Although it has been confirmed by multiple studies, the inverted-U relationship between stimulus complexity and preference (liking) remains contentious. Research aimed at substantiating the model are largely reliant upon anecdotal self-assessments of subjects and basic measures of complexity, leaving potential confounds unresolved. This study attempts to address the topic by assessing listening time as a behavioral correlate of liking (with the assumption that engagement prolongs listening time) and by looking for latent factors underlying several measures of rhythmic complexity. Participants listened to groups of rhythms, stopping each one when they started to lose interest and were asked to rate each rhythm in each group in terms of interest, complexity, and preference. Subjects were not informed that the time spent listening to each rhythm was the primary measure of interest. The hypothesis that listening time does demonstrate the same inverted-U relationship with complexity as verbal reports of liking was confirmed using a variety of metrics for rhythmic complexity, including meter-dependent measures of syncopation and meter-independent measures of entropy.

Keywords: complexity, entropy, rhythm, syncopation

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Authors: Heeyong Noh, Seongryong Kang, Sungjoo Lee

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As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, firms have tried to explore market opportunities not only in the domestic market but also abroad. In particular, transactions of intangible assets in the global market now take on great importance. Accordingly, technology transfer activities such as patent licensing, copyright transfer, or workforce trainings which are considered significant to leverage an organization’s internal capabilities, are occurring more frequently and briskly across the world than ever before. Though a number of studies have addressed the issues regarding technology transfer, most of them have focused on university-industry technology transfer. Of course, some have investigated international technology transfer phenomenon but used patent citations data as a proxy. In order to understand the phenomena more clearly, it would be necessary to collect and analyze data that can measure technology transfer activities between firms more directly. Therefore, this study aims to examine the patterns of international trade in technology by employing data about international technology in-licensing activities in Korean firms. We also investigate the effect of international technology in-licensing strategy on a firm’s innovation performance. The research findings are expected to help R&D managers understand how firms have absorbed technological knowledge from foreign firms in the form of licensing and further develop effective international collaboration strategies. In addition, significant implications can be offered for political decision-making regarding technology trade within increasing international interconnections.

Keywords: international technology trade, technology trade effect, technology transfer, R&D managers

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Authors: E. Kharaishvili, G. Erkomaishvili, M. Chavleishvili

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The paper evaluates the natural and resource potential of agriculture, a traditional sector for Georgia. It is concluded that despite favorable conditions the rate of development of the sector is lower compared to other sectors of the economy, self-sufficiency rate for locally produced agricultural products is low; on average, import of food is 4 times higher compared to export, and the country faces considerable challenges in this regard. Tendencies of self-sufficiency rates are studied, and it is concluded that the indicators of export and import of agro-food products increase in accordance with the tendency of increasing production in agricultural sector. The paper substantiates stimulating impact of international trade on agricultural development. Two alternative strategies are assessed in this respect: 1) export stimulation, and 2) import replacement strategies. It is concluded that significant tendencies are observed in agro-food sector of Georgia; in particular, productivity is low; import volume significantly exceeds the export volume. It is considered that the growth of export will allow Georgia to overcome limited opportunities of local market and encourage increasing competitiveness. Various tools of economic policy are suggested for achieving these goals; in particular to subsidize export, optimize trade barriers, manage exchange rates effectively, offer special financial services, provide insurance for export, etc.

Keywords: agro-food sector, trend of production, export stimulation, economic policy

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Authors: Benard Omogo

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The Kenyan Constitution 2010 introduced various commissions to devolve the powers that were previously centralized through the imperial Presidency. One of the commissions that directly determine the levels of remuneration and terms of service of Kenyan workers is the Salary and Remuneration Commission (SRC). Article 230 of the Kenyan Constitution 2010 mandates this commission to regularly review the remuneration and benefits of all the state officers and to advise the national and county governments on the remuneration and benefits of all other public officers. At the same time, article 54 of the Kenyan Labor Relations Act 2007 provides for the recognition of trade unions and collective bargaining agreements. The emerging challenges, therefore, originate from the conflicts of the mandate of the Salary and Remuneration Commission, whose advice is almost adopted as the order and this undermines the outcome of the Collective Bargaining Agreements. This has seen so many trade unions in Kenya being rendered irrelevant. This research paper is therefore going to sample the various trade unions of Kenya to assess the challenges that result from the position of the Salary and Remuneration Commission. We will also extend it by purposively sampling several trade unions in Africa to determine how they handle such challenges. The results from this paper will be useful to the Kenyan Lawmakers and Africa at large and may inform them to consider reviewing the laws and acts that relate to the trade unions for prosperity.

Keywords: salary, remuneration, collective, bargaining, labor laws

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Authors: Theophilius Adekunle Tinuoye

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Trade unions are groups formed essentially to promote, articulate and enhance the welfare of workers. They are expected to defend the workers interests and participate actively in workplace exchanges. But for trade unions to function effectively and actualize their lofty aspirations in the context of the current dynamic and ever-changing industrial relations context, they must not only have qualified and competent leaders, but also flexible and effective structure, systems, organograms, constitution, and administrative processes in place to compliment their policies and programmes. An important aspect of industrial relations is the existence of cordial tripartite or bipartite interactions between stakeholders and other social partners that are indispensable to the creation of positive and mutually beneficial exchanges and outcomes. This paper canvassed that unions must be structurally viable and administratively cohesive in order to be effective, pragmatic, functional and remain relevant. It also argued that weak, structurally deficient and less organized unions often find it immensely difficult to actualize workers goals. Finally, it outlined basic principles that will enhance union administration, guarantee that unions will continue to satisfy the yearnings of its members in these trying times and finally foster peaceful industrial relations climate and cordial labor relations between trade unions, employers /management and government.

Keywords: governance, labor relations, trade unions, workers

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Authors: Ping Xu, Gregory T. Golm, Guanghan (Frank) Liu

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In the presence of competing events, traditional survival analysis may not be appropriate and can result in biased estimates, as it assumes independence between competing events and the event of interest. Instead, competing risk analysis should be considered to correctly estimate the survival probability of the event of interest and the hazard ratio between treatment groups. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided a potential source of competing risks in clinical trials, as participants in trials may experienceCOVID-related competing events before the occurrence of the event of interest, for instance, death due to COVID-19, which can affect the incidence rate of the event of interest. We have performed simulation studies to compare multiple competing risk analysis models, including the cumulative incidence function, the sub-distribution hazard function, and the cause-specific hazard function, to the traditional survival analysis model under various scenarios. We also provide a general recommendation on conducting competing risk analysis in randomized clinical trials during the era of the COVID-19 pandemic based on the extensive simulation results.

Keywords: competing risk, survival analysis, simulations, randomized clinical trial, COVID-19 pandemic

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Authors: Manal Elsayed Elkheshin, Rasha Saleh Mansour, Mohamed Fawzy Mohamed Eldnasury, Mamdouh Elbadry Mohamed

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This research Aims to identify the main factors affecting the production and the fish consumption in Egypt, through the econometric estimation for various forms functions of fish production and fish consumption during the period (1991-2014), as the aim of this research to forecast the production and the fish consumption in Egypt until 2020, through determine the best standard methods using (ARIMA).This research also aims to the economic feasibility of the production of fish in aquaculture farms study; investment cost and represents the value of land, buildings, equipment and irrigation. Aquaculture requires three types of fish (Tilapia, carp fish, and mullet fish), and the total area of the farm, about an acre. The annual Fish production from this project about 3.5 tons. The annual investment costs of about 50500 pounds, Find conclude that the project can repay the cost of their investments after about 4 years and 5 months, and therefore recommend the implementation of the project, and internal rate of return reached (IRR) of about 22.1%, where it is clear that the rate of large internal rate of return, and achieves pound invested in this project annual return is estimated at 22.1 pounds, more than the opportunity cost, so we recommend the need to implement the project.Recommendations:1. Increasing the fish agriculture to decrease the gap of animal protein. 2.Increasing the number of mechanism fishing boats, and the provision of transport equipped to maintain the quality of fish production. 3.Encourage and attract the local and foreign investments, providing advice to the investor on the aquaculture field. 4. Action newsletters awareness of the importance of these projects where these projects resulted in a net profit after recovery in less than five years, IRR amounted to about 23%, which is much more than the opportunity cost of a bank interest rate is about 7%, helping to create work and graduates opportunities, and contribute to the reduction of imports of the fish, and improve the performance of the food trade balance.

Keywords: equation model, individual share, red meat, consumption, production, endogenous variable, exogenous variable, financial performance evaluates fish culture, feasibility study, fish production, aquaculture

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Authors: Zapji Ymele Aime Philombe

Abstract:

Servicing public debt is a significant budgetary burden in the sense that the payment of interest charges is a liability on the balance sheet of the public budget and affects fiscal policy. Interest charges can sometimes become a burden if they crowd out private activities. In order to analyse and understand the determinants of the debt burden and its impact on the sustainability of public finances, the present work focuses on OECD countries. It is noted from the literature that the factors that determine interest charges are macroeconomic (inflation, GDP growth and interest rates) and public finances (primary balance and public debt). After analysing a panel of 33 OECD countries and using ordinary least squares (OLS), we find that public debt, inflation and long-term interest rates are positively correlated with interest charges. An increase in any of these variables leads to an increase in debt charges. On the other hand, a growth in GDP is negatively associated with interest charges. Indeed, an increase in GDP generates enough revenue to meet the repayment of debt charges. According to the empirical analysis, we can say that, despite the large and growing debt-to-GDP ratio of major OECD countries, interest charges are not a threat to the sustainability of public finances. However, it is important for these countries to reduce the ratio of public debt to GDP because, in the face of the many challenges (health, aging population, etc.) that are looming on the horizon, an increase in interest rates could bring with it considerable burdens that would threaten the budgetary balance of these states.

Keywords: interests charges, public debt, sustainability, interest rates

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Authors: Elaine Stavro

Abstract:

In our present world where acts of incivility, intolerance and anger towards minority communities is on the rise, the ways museum practices cultivate ethical generosity is of interest. Democratic theorists differ as to how they believe respect can be generated through active participation. Allowing minority communities a role in determining what artifacts will be displayed and how they will be displayed has been an important step in generating respect. In addition, the rise of indigenous museums, slave museums and curators who represent these communities, contribute to the communication of their history of oppression. These institutional practices have been supplemented by the handling of objects, recognition stories and multisensory exhibitions. Psychoanalysis, object relations theorists believe that the handling of objects: amenable objects and responsive listeners will trigger the expression of anomie, alienation and traumatizing experiences. Not only memorializing but engaging with one’s lose in a very personal way can facilitate the process of mourning. Manchester Museum (UK) gathered together Somalian refugees, who in the process of handling their own objects and those offered at the museum, began to tell their stories. Democratic theorists (especially affect theorists or vital materialists or Actor Network theorists) believe that things can be social actants- material objects have agentic capacities that humans should align with. In doing so, they challenge social constructivism that attributes power to interpreted things, but like them they assume an openness or responsiveness to Otherness can be cultivated. Rich sensory experiences, corporeal engagement (devices that involve bodily movement or objects that involve handling) auditory experiences (songs) all contribute to improve one’s responsiveness and openness to Others. This paper will focus specifically on slave museums/ and exhibits in the U.K, the USA., South Africa to explore and evaluate their democratic strategies in cultivating tolerant practices via the various democratic avenues outlined above.

Keywords: democratic pedagogy, slave exhibitions, affect/emotion, object handling

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Authors: Weixing Tan

Abstract:

Production of nutraceuticals from microalgae—a virtually untapped natural phyto-based source of which there are 200,000 to 1,000,000 species—offers a sustainable and healthy alternative to conventionally sourced nutraceuticals for the market. Microalgae can be grown organically using only natural sunlight, water and nutrients at an extremely fast rate, e.g. 10-100 times more efficiently than crops or trees. However, the commercial success of microalgae products at scale remains limited largely due to the lack of economically viable technologies. There are two major microalgae production systems or technologies currently available: 1) the open system as represented by open pond technology and 2) the closed system such as photobioreactors (PBR). Each carries its own unique features and challenges. Although an open system requires a lower initial capital investment relative to a PBR, it conveys many unavoidable drawbacks; for example, much lower productivity, difficulty in contamination control/cleaning, inconsistent product quality, inconvenience in automation, restriction in location selection, and unsuitability for cold areas – all directly linked to the system openness and flat underground design. On the other hand, a PBR system has characteristics almost entirely opposite to the open system, such as higher initial capital investment, better productivity, better contamination and environmental control, wider suitability in different climates, ease in automation, higher and consistent product quality, higher energy demand (particularly if using artificial lights), and variable operational expenses if not automated. Although closed systems like PBRs are not highly competitive yet in current nutraceutical supply market, technological advances can be made, in particular for the PBR technology, to narrow the gap significantly. One example is a readily scalable P2P Microalgae PBR Technology at Grande Prairie Regional College, Canada, developed over 11 years considering return on investment (ROI) for key production processes. The P2P PBR system is approaching economic viability at a pre-commercial stage due to five ROI-integrated major components. They include: (1) optimum use of free sunlight through attenuation (patented); (2) simple, economical, and chemical-free harvesting (patent ready to file); (3) optimum pH- and nutrient-balanced culture medium (published), (4) reliable water and nutrient recycling system (trade secret); and (5) low-cost automated system design (trade secret). These innovations have allowed P2P Microalgae Technology to increase daily yield to 106 g/m2/day of Chlorella vulgaris, which contains 50% proteins and 2-3% omega-3. Based on the current market prices and scale-up factors, this P2P PBR system presents as a promising microalgae technology for market competitive nutraceutical supply.

Keywords: microalgae technology, nutraceuticals, open pond, photobioreactor PBR, return on investment ROI, technological advances

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Authors: Mohamed El-Khateeb

Abstract:

Encompassing inventory, warehousing, and transportation management, logistics is a crucial predictor of firm performance. This has been extensively proven by extant literature in business and operations management. Logistics is also a fundamental determinant of a country's ability to access international markets. Available studies in international and transport economics have shown that limited transport infrastructure and underperforming transport services can severely affect international competitiveness. However, the evidence lacks the overall impact of logistics performance-encompassing all inventory, warehousing, and transport components- on global trade. In order to fill this knowledge gap, the paper uses a gravitational trade model with 155 countries from all geographical regions between 2007 and 2018. Data on logistics performance is obtained from the World Bank's Logistics Performance Index (LPI). First, the relationship between logistics performance and a country’s total trade is estimated, followed by a breakdown by the economic sector. Then, the analysis is disaggregated according to the level of technological intensity of traded goods. Finally, after evaluating the intensive margin of trade, the relevance of logistics infrastructure and services for the extensive trade margin is assessed. Results suggest that: (i) improvements in both logistics infrastructure and services are associated with export growth; (ii) manufactured goods can significantly benefit from these improvements, especially when both exporting and importing countries increase their logistics performance; (iii) the quality of logistics infrastructure and services becomes more important as traded goods are technology-intensive; and (iv) improving the exporting country's logistics performance is essential in the intensive margin of trade while enhancing the importing country's logistics performance is more relevant in the extensive margin.

Keywords: low-cost, recycling, reuse, solid waste, wastewater treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Ivana Yuniarti, Iwan Ridwansyah

Abstract:

This paper delivers a review of various methodologies for habitat assessment and a proposed methodology to assess an endemic fish species habitat in Lake Maninjau, Indonesia as a part of a Ph.D. project. This application is mainly aimed to assess the trade-off between the economic value of aquaculture and the fisheries. The proposed methodology is a generalized linear model (GLM) combined with GIS to assess presence-absence data or habitat suitability index (HSI) combined with the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Further, a cost of habitat replacement approach is planned to be used to calculate the habitat value as well as its trade-off with the economic value of aquaculture. The result of the study is expected to be a scientific consideration in local decision making and to provide a reference for other areas in the country.

Keywords: AHP, habitat, GLM, HSI, Maninjau

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Rishabh Garg

Abstract:

Traditionally, business parties build trust with a centralized operating mechanism, such as payment by letter of credit. However, the increase in cyber-attacks and malicious hacking has jeopardized business operations and finance practices. Emerging markets, owing to their higher banking risks and bigger presence of digital financing, are looking forward to technology-driven solutions, financial inclusion and innovative working paradigms. Blockchain has the potential to enhance transaction transparency and supply chain traceability. It has captured a vast landscape with 200 million crypto users worldwide. Fintech and blockchain products are popping up across brokerage, digital wallets, exchanges, post-trade clearance, settlement, middleware, infrastructure, and base protocols.

Keywords: blockchain, distributed ledger technology, decentralized applications, ethereum, smart contracts, trade finance

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Chyng Sun

Abstract:

This brief report examines correlations between Korean men’s interest in gonzo pornography, perceptions of pornography’s functional value, and use of condoms. The report found that, neither a higher interest in gonzo or the perception that pornography is a source of sexual information was directly related to condom utilization. However, interest in gonzo pornography interacted with pornography perceptions to predict condomless sex. The findings suggest that Korean men who 1) had higher interest in viewing gonzo pornography, and 2) had a tendency to view pornography as a source of sexual information, are more likely to have sex without condoms. That is, when viewers consider pornography to be a form of sexual education, they are more likely to use the learned pornographic script to inform their sexual behavior.

Keywords: Korean, male, pornography, sexuality

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Mohammad Narimani, Zahra Rostamoghli

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is the survey of rate and causes of literacy preservation in adult newly learners. Statistical sample consists of 384 adults who are newly learners of literacy, at 2002, who were selected by stratified sampling method. This is a correlation cross-sectional survey research, in which authors-constructed measures were used for data collection. Results of survey showed that learners' literacy preservation rate after two years was 70%, 61% and 57%, in reading, dictation and mathematic tests, respectively.Following can be noted as factors correlated with literacy preservation; repetition of subjects and learners' subjective review, access to and using the library and publications, feeling of need to and interest in educated matters, socio cultural class of learners, and literacy level of learners' family.

Keywords: literacy preservation, new learner, literacy improvement movement, mathematic test

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: Pornpimol Chaiwuttisak

Abstract:

The study aims to compare the performance of the logistics for Thailand’s wholesale and retail trade industries (except motor vehicles, motorcycle, and stalls) by using data (data envelopment analysis). Thailand Standard Industrial Classification in 2009 (TSIC - 2009) categories that industries into sub-group no. 45: wholesale and retail trade (except for the repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles), sub-group no. 46: wholesale trade (except motor vehicles and motorcycles), and sub-group no. 47: retail trade (except motor vehicles and motorcycles. Data used in the study is collected by the National Statistical Office, Thailand. The study consisted of four input factors include the number of companies, the number of personnel in logistics, the training cost in logistics, and outsourcing logistics management. Output factor includes the percentage of enterprises having inventory management. The results showed that the average relative efficiency of small-sized enterprises equals to 27.87 percent and 49.68 percent for the medium-sized enterprises.

Keywords: DEA, wholesales and retails, logistics, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 391